Jeff Rubin's New Book Will be a Warning and a Wakeup Call for Albertans

Economics Jeff Rubins left the CIBC last March and has written a book to be released in a week or so. Entitled "Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller." It is as a consequence of peak oil that he says will drive prices up over $200 a barrel in 2012 and the "inevitable carbon tax" resulting in "very high transportation costs" which will "throw the machinery of globalization into reverse."

This is good and bad news for Alberta. We are using taxpayer dollars and foregone royalties to subsidize conventional oil and gas exploration in the face of mature basins which means diminishing supplies but at high development costs.

We will have renewed and accelerated pressures once again on oil sands development, upgrading, pipelines. Plus we will have more public infrastructure needs to meet the growth demands on us due to the energy shortfall from facts or fears of peak oil happening around the world.

Alberta needs to get real and responsible about planning and preparing for all of this now and not wait for the next boom to mess us up like the last two have done. Part of proper preparation is for our government to stop giving the resources away to energy companies by subsidies and ridiculously low royalty rates. Also start collecting and accounting for the cash Albertans are owed instead of letting the tenants defer and delay payment without penalty.

While we are at it, we better insist on constant updating of new technology for environmental reasons. Lets not grant any new leases to any companies who are laggards in reclamation of old sites, roads and seismic lines. If you have old ignored well sites, put your people to work to clean them up and reclaim them as is your legal responsibility and central to your social license duty. I am talking real reclamation back to forest with tree replanting for habitat restoration, not just a bit of grass seed scattered on the ground and forget it.

We have to break the back of the default mindset that says the energy industry in Alberta are the de facto governors who run the province and not our elected and somewhat insipid politicians. The energy industry has become Alberta's sacred economic cow. It can wander at will in the marketplace without concern or consideration for the damaged they do nor for the long term well being for rest of us.

In all fairness, some of the oil sands operators are getting it and show a growing concern for deserving their social license to operate. That is partly because they have large site specific capital investments so they have to be good neighbours, not just passing through the neighbourhood like the conventional exploration companies. Oil sands operators are miners, not drillers. They take a long term more integrated view of the impact and implications of what they do with land, water, air, habitat and local cultures. They are starting to behave more like a quality forestry companies. Foresters have a long term reclamation and restoration corporate culture. This partly because they are operating in a renewable resource sector but they have lots to teach the energy sector about good corporate social responsibility.

Albertans have to get serious, start acting like the resource owners and insist the energy industry be more responsible as our tenants who we grant access to exploit our assets for a fair mutual benefit.

If Jeff Rubins is right about the economic and social impacts coming due to peak oil, Alberta is going to be saddled once again with a blessing and a burden of a boom. If we Albertans, as owners, truly want ecological integrity and sustainability in the development of our fossil fuel natural resources we have to get overt and active now. We have to show, in no uncertain terms, both the energy industry and our politicians, that lax enforcement of environmental laws and a lazy tax collection culture plus the past predatory operational practices in the energy sector are no longer going to be tolerated. It is time for Alberta to develop its fossil fuel resources the right way, not just rapidly.

ATA Brief on Bill #44 Exposes its Flaws

Here is the Alberta Teachers Association brief on Bill 44. It clarifies and outlines the practical problems for teachers from the offensive section 11.1. Thoise are the expanded and extended parental opting out provisions centred around religion, sexuality and sexual orientation being brought up in an Alberta classroom.

It is a well thought out brief and I agree with every thing in it. Full disclosure, I have done work for the ATA but I am not advising them on Bill 44.

I have read Hansard on the second reading debates on Bill 44. I am impressed by the grasp Liberals Harry Chase and Kent Hehr have on the issues and the implications. Education Minister Dave Hancock is clear in his analysis but I remain unconvinced that this legislation is necessary nor well advised for any reason whatsoever. I expect Hancock would rather see the deletion of section 11.1 but he is stuck defending it as a Cabinet Minister. I encourage you to read Minister Hancock's blog posts on Bill 44 as well.

Exposing teachers and quite possibly school trustees to expensive and intimidating potential legal processing before a Human Rights Tribunal by zealots and reactionaries is not dispelled by Ministers Hancock and Blackett expressing their personal beliefs that such situations would be unlikely to happen. The way Bill 44 reads now, there is an entitlement for a parent to file a complaint with the Human Rights Commission and seek redress before a Tribunal. Once a legal process starts, no one can predict what will happen, other than to say it will proceed and take its course. Precious little solice for the teaching profession and the poor teachers who will have to defend themselves in such circumstances.

Current policy has worked well for years and there is no sound public policy reason to change things. That makes one wonder why this provision is appearing in a government Bill other than bad politics is trumping good government. The additional opting out provisions provided in Bill 44 are not the same as in the School Act, regardless of how the Stelmach government tries to flog that mischaracterization. As for being symbolic, these changes are sure symbolic, but not of a satisfactory status quo and definitely not of the progressive plural and inclusive society that most Albertans aspire to.

As for Minister Blackett saying in recent media reports that it is too late to change the Bill. Horsefeathers. It is far from too late. I worked on an exemption for the nonprofit voluntary sector from the provisions of the Lobbyist Act last session. That exemption came out of the Bill by way a government member proposing the exemption by an amendment at third and final reading of the Bill. The amended Bill passed and the nonproft voluntary sector is exempt from the Lobbyist Act.

BTW, the government member who introduced the successful voluntary sector exemption amendment was the current Minister of Education, the Honourable Dave Hancock. It is not too late to withdraw the offensive section 11.1 of Bill 44 and failing that, it is obvious not to late to amend it either.

None of this will happen unless Albertans tell Premier Stelmach and all their local MLAs that they want Bill 44 changed so teachers can do their jobs appropriately and without fear. The Legislature is not sitting this week so your MLA is in the constituency. Drop by or drop them a note or an email and let them know you are unhappy with Bill 44 as it stands.

Deputy Premier Stevens Throws in the Towel

The Hon Ron Stevens, Deputy Premier of Alberta call it quits - IMMEDIATELY! There was lots of speculation that Ron would retire from politics and head to the Bench sometime this year but not right now, before the Spring Session is over. There is so much going on and so much to do it is strange that he seems to be bolting out of the building. The timing and decisiveness of the decision to leave so abruptly is a big surprise.

There is going to have to be a by-election in Calgary pretty soon, I expect in the fall of 2009. It will be seen as a test of confidence in the Stelmach government by the Calgary elites. It will be interesting to see what happens but mid term by-elections are hardly ever good news for governments, especially those in a recession.


The Stelmach government has relationship problems in the energy tycoons in the Calgary Towers but I am not so sure that is also true of the guy on the street in Calgary. As Deputy Premier Ron Stevens would be the point guy on the ground to bridge any information and perception gaps and quell any angst in the Towers.


There is plenty of Tower Angst and the denizens of the Towers are equating the Jan 1/09 royalty regime as equivalent to the NEP. That is hyperbole and hypocrisy but the stuff that Stevens would have to deal with. Here is a link to a piece my business partner Satya Das did in rebuttal to a Calgary Herald columnist on the Tower Angst.
http://www.cambridgestrategies.com/news-room/doc_download/74-new-era-for-the-oilpatch


Will Premier Stelmach appoint another Deputy Premier out of Calgary, if so who. The Calgary crew in the Stelmach Cabinet is short on experience, with Ron Liepert now looking like the senior Calgary guy. My guess is the Premier will not appoint a Deputy Premier, from Calgary or elsewhere.


The more interesting political concern is with Steven's immediate departure Stelmach can do a Cabinet shuffle without looking like he is intentionally throwing anybody under the bus...something he will likely do anyway.


Stelmach needs to make changes and regroup. The government is strategically incoherent and becoming top down, centralized, thin skinned and insular. This is happening just at a time when they ought to be bold, looking outward, forward and listening to citizens.

Ken Chapman, Ruth Kelly & Cory Janssen at InterVivos Event

I am looking forward to meeting and mentoring with the InterVivos crowd June 8 at their "Business Plan Your Lunch" event in Edmonton. Joining me in this event is Ruth Kelly, the President and CEO of Venture Publishing and Cory Janssen, the co-founder of www.investopedia.com.

Check it out and come out and join us. It will be fun and practical too.

Stelmach Hands out the Pork - to Brian Mason

This is the kind of "stimulating" post partisanship we need in a modern democracy. Here is Premier Stelmach on the Legislature Grounds today "dishing out the pork" for a goods cause and to none other than the Leader of the NDP, Mr. Brian Mason. Eat pork Alberta...just like Ed and Brian.