FINDING OUR WAY IN UNCHARTED TIMES

FINDING OUR WAY IN UNCHARTED TIMES

A sextant was an indispensable navigation tool in the early days of European ocean-going discovery.

Unlike Heisenberg's Theory of Uncertainty, a sextant could tell you where you are and where you're going. Are you on or off course, and what must you do to make necessary changes and corrections?

But you needed an irrefutable constant to determine where you are. For those using a sextant, that constant was the North Star.

As you navigate through your citizenship journey as a Rebooter or an independent citizen and voter, do you have your personal North Star? What facts or articles of faith do you use as your known and reliable constants? Have you considered and calculated what is happening in your life-experiencing reality? Do you know where you are as an Albertan? Are you clear on how you got to your current reality? And are your clear about what you want in your future and how to find your way forward?

Alberta is entering into uncharted waters caused by events and issues beyond our control. Pandemics, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Energy Transition, Economic Recession, and so many more changes are coming at us as Albertans.

TIME TO EXERCISE PERRSONAL AGENCY

There are still many things we can still do personally and in groups to respond actively and positively to these macro-dynamics, and to make the changes we want to actually happen. We do have personal agency and can take control of some aspects of our political culture up to, during and after this critical election.

The question for us then is will we take back Control? Will we set out on an Alternative course from the failing of the past? Will we be wise enough to Delete the harmful actions and assumptions of the past? Will we explore and Reboot ourselves and our province to co-create a Better Alberta?

Elections are prime times to define new directions and get moving into new future-fit destinations. Are you getting ready, as a citizen, to take effective election-time action to make the changes you want to see in public policy, government programs and political processes? Do you accept that an informed citizenship and purposeful voting is a personal duty in a Free and Democratic Society?

A BETTER ALBERTA NEEDS BETTER VOTERS AND CITIZENS.

We will not get a better Alberta until we become Better Citizens and, in the process, become Better Voters. Are you willing to do what you can to become a Better Voter this election and beyond? That means investing your time to decide what is important to you and your family in these uncertain times for Alberta. It means taking the time to step up and raise your awareness of what's happening, and improving the quality of your information on issues and events.

Then are you able to invest and donate into the democratic process? You donate to a local candidate, a political party, or even an interest group whothat is active in pressing for change in a policy area.

Remember, democracy is influenced and run by those who show up.

IF NOT THIS; THEN WHAT?

Are you tired of the overheated right versus left, political rhetoric?  Are you weary of the partisan blame game?  Are you concerned about the rise of misinformation and disinformation spreading throughout our society? 

Are you worried about political polarisation that is dividing us and leaving a trail of debris in our economy, our environment, ourselves and many of our fellow citizens? 

Do you have a nagging, or even gut-wrenching, feeling that there are people and groups who are committed to separating Alberta from Canada and intent on replacing our democracy with an autocracy?  As a citizen of Alberta, are you unsatisfied with the direction of our province?  

If so, we must ask ourselves, IF NOT THIS, THEN WHAT? This is the  core political question for Albertans in these volatile, uncertain, complex times.  This question is especially significant given the fundamental and consequential choices we will be making as voters in this election. 

ELECTIONS ARE GOOD TIMES TO PRESS FOR CHANGE

An election is a serious time for Albertans to take up our roles and responsibilities by becoming engaged and participating citizens. It is time for those of us with the capacity, skills, and talents to apply ourselves, to show up, speak up, stand up and even act up with a renewed sense of civic purpose.  It is time to use our energy, capabilities, skills and many talents to exert the power of our citizenship and press for the changes we want to see.

While this core question provides a framework to uncover and consider the problems, it does little  to provide us with any doable solutions.  That takes a personal commitment to the work of participatory citizenship. 

The work is the go-forward mission for those of us ready, willing and able to move into the next stage of Reboot Alberta. We, those of us who are able, will assist the majority of like-minded individuals to become more engaged in purposeful and political activities.  

The stakes are high.  Our democracy is in danger. We must become effectively engaged politically if we are to protect, promote, preserve and improve our democracy.  We must use the power of citizenship to defeat ideological extremists, at both ends of the political spectrum.  We must expose and depose the authoritarian tyrants in our midst who are trying to take control of our province and weaken our democratic institutions.

THE INVITATION 

It is time for some of us in the Reboot Alberta Group, to take our political participation to a different level.  It’s time to transition from passive Likes and Retweet levels of involvement.  We must move into an engaged, active, and purposeful community approach that is committed to conceiving and co-creating a better Alberta.

That better Alberta is more economically viable, socially just, environmentally responsible, and politically representative.

THE SHIFT

The Reboot Alberta Facebook Group has been a place for politically moderate and conscientious citizens.  We are citizens who want to help raise awareness, share ideas and information on public policy issues, government programs, policy and even politics.  As a result, we have been able to get more clarity about where we are these days as a province where volatility, uncertainty and ambiguity is “normal.”

There is broad consensus amongst us, given our answer to what is wrong with the direction Alberta is heading. We are well aware of the current deficiencies in so much of being in Alberta.  When we ask ourselves,  If not THIS, then WHAT?We can all make a list of the “THIS” things in present day Alberta that we need to change.

CITIZENS MAKING CHANGE IS NOT NEW

This focus on what needs to be changed is not new. Albertans have, as pluralist people, been focused for a number of years  on the “IF NOT” aspect of the question.  Ever since the Klein days many of us, as citizens not partisans, have been actively seeking better political leadership.  We did this by rejecting various ideologically insufficient alternatives we were offered by the long reigning, now defunct, Progressive Conservative Party.

For example, over the years, many non-partisan citizens bought Progressive Conservative party memberships to participate in the selection of the party leaders.  That’s an example of the activated and engaged individual citizenship action we are speaking about as Rebooters.

What emerged was an act of engaged citizenship because individuals realised that the change of leadership of a party in power, was also selecting the next Premier of Alberta. More recently, many independent citizens realised that the UCP leadership outcome was too serious a matter to leave to the party members alone.  So they purchased UCP memberships, if only to have a say in who would become the next Premier of Alberta.

NOW WHAT? IT’S TIME TO GET SERIOUS

 The “What” is the uncertainty in our core question.  This part of the question is especially important at this election time given our divided and polarised political reality.  The What part of the question is personal to We the Citizens as voters.  It is where your choices, based on your concerns, will have consequences for all of us.  What issues, policy, perceptions will drive and determine the choices of Albertans as we collectively decide how to mark our ballot?  Such choices must be made soon because we have  a deadline. Election day is May 29th.  This is now IMPORTANT AND URGENT.

ACTION PLAN

The What part of the question, in the emerging more engaged Reboot Community, will not be focused very much on helping you decide how to mark your ballot.  We will be citizens who are preparing for a more effective engaged active personal citizenship in the post-election period. We will be organising for taking more direct action approaches to more effective personal and collectively engaged citizens pressing for change through political, but not just partisan, means.

We will consider the choices, changes, and alternatives for Alberta and Albertans, that we can influence that are actually within our control.  We will focus on solutions that we can design and deploy through democratic processes.  After the election will take a longer term future-forward view of issues and seek solutions that go beyond the ballot box focus of the current election cycle.  

We will also consider the external pressures we will have imposed on us, by geopolitical and other forces.  We will accept  that we can’t control those external forces but we will press for changes where we can and must move to mitigate and learn to adapt to the external consequences and impacts.

CITIZENSHIP MATTERS

The next phase of Reboot Alberta will not be for everyone.  The Reboot Alberta Facebook Group will continue to raise awareness and share reliable and relatable information.  But there will be another community based platform for those Reboot-minded citizens who want to expand their role and responsibility as a citizen into more direct political action.  

We are not talking about marching and waving placards, or running around with our collective hair on fire as much as that is often fun. Nor are we about signing meaningless petitions or feeding rage machines by spreading  misinformation.

This Citizenship Matter initiative will not be  for everyone. We will be looking for people with a passion for Alberta, experienced in service to others, and the capacity to contribute time, talent and other resources.  It will be for those citizens who want to be involved and who aspire to exert personal positive impact on those areas of concern and purpose towards co-creating a better next Alberta.

We are now searching out venues and will be convening gatherings around issues, policies, and programs. Specific working groups will design and deploy the work. Yes, there will be work. Democracy  takes work.  I promise it will be frustrating at times, but also satisfying when we see that we are making constructive and positive changes in how we are governed.

We will  be looking at how to be effectively engaged and how to take direct action on those citizenship matters that drive the desires of the various community members.  We are in fact calling this parallel community- inspired platform Citizenship Matters.  Citizenship Matters because citizenship participation in political processes and decisions are the only way we have, as a society, to move  away from the adversarial, divisive and polarised political culture we Albertans have fallen into.  

Citizenship Matters are all those things about being Albertan that really matter to the majority of independent, critical-thinking citizens, who are not politically aligned but also not politically disengaged. They are curious and concerned about things that matter, considering what do we need and what do we want as Albertans for Albertans 

The Citizenship Matters mindset will be to clearly understand a citizen’s chosen focus area and the problems they face, personally, in their community or provincially. We will be committed to solution finding through community leadership, acting as citizenship trustees of our democracy.  We will not wait for the political establishment to act and then merely respond complacently or complicitly where and when it matters to our Citizenship.

We will use the power of our citizenship to look for solutions that work within the power levers of our democracy and our system of government.  We will apply 21st century tools that include but go beyond the ballot box. 

In the beginning we will be starting small, but that does not mean we will be going slowly nor without a defined purpose.  We will look to  some focus area we know something about, where we are in the issue, and where there is some clarity about what constitutes a preferred future.   

JOIN US AND HELP DESIGN THE NEXT ALBERTA

Many of us have all but forgotten that public participation through political engagement is some of the most meaningful and impactful ways we can create much-needed change.  Citizenship Matters will be a community approach to citizen engagement to help create change in what concerns you. 

That change may be getting your disabled child the school support they need or finding safe and affordable long-term care for a frail parent.  Do you have a community-based concern you want to see fixed like policing reform and public safety?  Perhaps energy transition and climate change issues are some of your big issues. Of course there are always enormous challenges in our healthcare systems. 

Too many of us are sitting on the political sidelines.  Sometimes we feel overwhelmed by the range and complexity of the issues and challenges we are facing. Others feel powerless because they don’t understand how to leverage our democratic and civic systems.  Many avoid political participation because they see it as vile, nasty and corrupt. 

Citizenship Matters will help independent, critical-thinking, and passionate Albertans become more effective and active citizens.  Are you ready, willing, and able to  step up your efforts to seek solutions we need now and for future generations of Albertans? Join us.  Whatever your passion, if you want to press for change using the power of your citizenship to design and define the next Alberta - Join Us. 

REBOOT'S 4-H BETTER VOTER TOOL

This post is part of the series for Alberta Rebooters to consider their personal situation as we approach our voting decisions in the May general election.

I’ve posted on the importance of elections as a chance for change, and charting our way as citizens in uncharted economic, social and environmental times for Albertans.

THE 4-H TOOL FOR BETTER VOTING

Now I am sharing a 4-H framework tool for you to use as you consider what you will be voting for, and why, in the election. The framework starts with what is on your mind, individually, for your family, and your various communities and organizations you connect with. Do you understand why these are concerns for you?  What’s in your Head? 

Then we asked you to consider what is in your Heart about those concerns.  What are your feelings, fears, and sense of what better would look like if you could make changes? Next is to look seriously about what you are doing about pressing for the changes you see as needed.  This is the Hands on part.  What steps are you taking to be, and bring about, the change you want to see?  

The final step in making a better voting decision is about Hope.  What is your big picture view of what the next Alberta could, should and would be if we were effective, engaged, active and aspirational as citizens?  What are the core principles and values we should live by as persons and and as a people?

SO WHAT'S CONCERNING YOU THESE DAYS?

The top of mind issues in Canada, and I suspect in Alberta as well, are Inflation/Recession, Healthcare, and Housing, and Public Safety is also emerging. So this post will explore how to use the 4H Framework in terms of Economic perceptions and concerns from data in an series of recent national polls. Where are you in relation to the survey data?

Abacus Data finds that perceptions are that 46% of Canadians think the  economy will shrink in the next 12 months. Only 28% believe there will be growth while 26% say it will do neither.  Consumer behavior can be self- fulfilling prophecies.  But add in the fact that 20% of Canadians could only cover one week of expenses, and 43% say they would survive a month from their savings if they lost their job. 

That reality has to be a big Head and Heart driven issue for many Albertans too.  The Leger poll done in the same timeframe shows 48% of Albertans hold cynical pessimistic expectations of future declines in the economy, the most in the country, but not by much.

Leger finds the big personal economic worries are sustained value of investments (64% - Albertans 71%), safety of savings (61% - Albertans 68%), able to pay bills (53% - Albertans 60%), carrying credit card debt (46% - Albertans 53%) and ability to meet mortgage payments (40% - Albertans 42%).

As for our sense of a recession, a year ago 34% of Albertans said we were definitely in a recession, and now 30% believe that to be true.  Asked Iif we are probably already in a recession, a year ago 63% believed that, while now 74% perceive that to be the case.  Again, the highest numbers in the country.

SO WE KNOW OUR ISSUES, BUT WHAT ABOUT SOLUTIONS?

Most of these issues are global in nature and way beyond the scope of governments to do much about,  them other than to help with adaptations and mitigation.  But we should expect some pragmatic, honest and actionable strategies from the Alberta political parties for us, as independent citizens, to evaluate, support or reject with our ballots this election.

So are these worries your worries too, on a personal and on a bigger picture level?  As individuals all we can do is adapt our discretionary spending and seek more revenue through wages and otherwise.  We may have to reduce our personal investment risk and look at other behavioral changes to meet our fiscal obligations.

Of course there are many more concerns about healthcare, education, public safety, uncertainty over climate change and energy transition impacts on Alberta jobs, to name a few.

I hope this information is helpful in your efforts to focus on your 4H process in your Citizen’s Journey. So stay tuned, stay attuned, tune up your citizenship and do not tune out!  There are Authoritarian forces organizing to take over Alberta this election. 

Our democracy is at risk.  Use it or lose it.

What Do We Do Now?

The Political Paradox that is Alberta

The political paradox for Alberta is that, while we have had majority governments since 1971 we have had unstable governance since about 2004.  In that election year Ralph Klein kept a majority government but was loosing popular support.  He gave up 12 seats that election, mostly in the Edmonton region.

The End of King Ralph
The Progressive Conservative 2004 election message to citizens on the doorsteps was this would be Ralph's last election and he would be retiring.  After the election Ralph mussed about staying on as party leader.  The PC rank and file membership sent him a strong message in the end of March 2006 leadership review vote at the AGM.   Klein went from a typical 90% public and party approval rating to essentially a vote of non-confidence where he eked  out a slim majority in the leadership review vote.  Ralph was pushed out by the party members and a leadership campaign began.

One Person One Vote & Open PC Party Memberships 
By October 2006 eight candidates were in the running, including  (irony alert)  Lyle Oberg.  This Minister had been fired from Cabinet and suspended from the PC Caucus on March 22, before the dump Ralph party vote but ran for the leadership anyway.  Long-shot Ed Stelmach lead on preferential vote system by less that 500 votes but was the overwhelming second choice and beat the establishment candidate Jim Dinning by more than 12,000 votes in the end.

Stelmach
The three front runners, in perceived order of power, were Jim Dinning. Ted Morton and Ed Stelmach.  Dinning had support of 38 caucus member and three federal Conservatives.  Stelmach had 13 caucus member's on the first ballot and 6 more on the second.  Ted Morton, really a federal Reform Party and Canadian Alliance party member had one caucus member support him but the strong Reform Party grassroots machine to sell memberships.

Since May 27, 2011 the day Ed Stelmach resigned, and March 18, 2017, when Rachel Notley was elected, Alberta has had 6 Premiers.  All had majority governments but they hardly evidenced anything approximating certainty and stability in governance.

Redford
When Redford won the contest she, like Stelmach, came from behind and up the middle to win.  The contest was seen to be between an urban establishment candidate, Gary Mar, a rural establishment candidate, Doug Horner and, yet again, Ted Morton.  Mar held an impressive 41% of the first ballot vote.  Redford was a surprisingly in second place at 18.74% and Horner was a disappointing third with 14.55%.  Ted Morton was never really in this contest but garnered  11.73% for 4th place and was eliminated.

Redford was over 13,000 votes behind on the first ballot but won by a mere 1600 votes with overwhelming second ballot support.  She had only 1 caucus member supporting here on the first ballot and 5 more joined her for the second go round. whereas Gary Mar had 27 caucus member supporting him and 7 more came over on the second ballot.  Mar had been out of politics from 2007 representing the province in Washington D.C.  The rural establishment candidate Doug Horner had 14 caucus members behind him.

With such low caucus support and the influence of outsider "instant Tories" who bought PC memberships only to vote in the leadership, Redford had no clout as leader.  Her disappointing style and narcissistic style and overt sense of entitlement destroyed her leadership and she resigned on March 19, 2014 and gave up her seat in August 2014.

Prentice  & the Final Acts of the PC Passion Play
Dave Hancock was the unanimous caucus choice for interim leader until Jim Prentice won on September 6 2014 with the first ballot total of almost 18,000 votes while his combined opposition only garnered 5400 between them.  Prentice called an earl;y election for May 5, 2015, ignoring the PC's much vaunted fixed election law.  He lost badly to Rachel Notley and the NDP and resigned his seat even before this own riding results were counted.

Kenney Comes to  Alberta and the UCP is Born
For some inexplicable reason, Harper's political acolyte, Jason Kenney passed on he federal Conservative party leadership and moved in on the provincial Progressive Conservative Party leadership.  He was out to Unite the Right by purging the progressives from the PC party, taking it over as a conservative rump then consolidating with the Wildrose Party into a new "true" conservative party that he would lead to defeat the socialist NDP.  And he did with the political death of the PCAA, the Wildrose and the birth of the United Conservative Party.

On March 18, 2017 Kenney won the PCAA leadership on the first ballot with 1,113 supporters and 75.5% of the 1,476 total votes cast.  The other two candidates ran to keep the PCAA and rebuild it but to no avail.

In late July 2017 the PCAA and Wildrose membership held votes on forming the United Conservative Party.  IN both cases the decision was profound.

There was a turnout of 25,000 Wildrose members, representing 57% of total members  They overwhelming accepted the UCP option at 95.4%.  No one knows where the other 43% of Wildrose members stood on this because there was no comments from them at all.

The Progressive Conservative party had over 27,000 members participate and voted 95% in favour of the new united party.  That was a 55% turnout, again little if anything was heard from the 45% of PCAA members who stayed away from the unity vote.

A mere seven months later, on October 28, 2017, Kenney again won the UCP leadership on the first ballot with 61% leaving Brian Jean, the Wildrose candidate at 31.5, with the token progressive Doug Schweitzer at a mere 7.3% support.  Since then Messrs. Jean and Schweitzer have hardly been seen or heard of as Kenney purges the Brian Jean supporters from party operations, as he did with progressives in the PCAA.  He consolidates his power and turns the UCP into the KenneyCons.

Leadership Volatility Not Over Yet.
Every political Party in Alberta has a turnover in leadership.  Notley became NDP leader in October 2014 and lead them to majority government in May on 2015.

The Alberta Liberals elected David Khan as leader on June 5, 2017.  The Alberta Greens chose Romy Tittel as leader on November 4, 2017.

Greg Clark became Alberta Party leader in 2013 and was the longest serving party leader until he recently resigned.  He now leaves Notley as the longest serving provincial party leader at 3 years and 3 months at the time of writing.  The next rookie leader will be the Alberta Party who will take office on Feb 28th.

What Do We Do Now?
This brief  history Alberta's political leadership shows how we got to where we are today.  It illustrates just how volatile our political culture is and how the partisan fortunes and forces are shifting.  Notwithstanding perpetual majority governments political volatility is likely to continue into and through the next election.

Will it result in a minority government or will Albertans sustain the support for the NDP majority?  Are the unscientific political polls right and is the province about to shift to the ultra-right to a UCP majority?   Next post I will lay out some scenarios and speculate on what I think will happen...or at least could happen...and why.

Subscribe?
.  You might want to subscribe to this blog to get notice of new posts.  I will be doing a series of posts on Alberta politics beyond the horse race analysis. However I will do some analysis on the skills and policy positions of the three Alberta Party Candidates and share my views on what they bring to Alberta politics and the fortunes of the Alberta Party itself.

I will delve more into what the Alberta Aspiration should be and what we need to change so we can adapt and reach our potential.  I will explore the dangers of tired old-thinking mindset of those who say we should return to the antediluvian Alberta Advantage.  I will look at the risks associated with  the adversarial ideological left versus right bipolar politics we have today.  I will try to offer ideas and options and reasons for moderate progressive citizens to rethink their reasons and responsibilities  for political participation.  Stay tuned and come along for the ride.

Obama Support Rising

There is a new poll of 1000 Americans for the Wall Street Journal and NBC News saying 53% of Americans approve of Obama's performance as President.  Too bad voters were not thinking that way in the November mid-term elections.

He is up 8% since December and his disapproval rating is down 7% to 41%.  According t reports on the poll, Independents have not felt this good about Obama since August 2009.  The other side (the dark side?) the GOP Republicans are not doing so well.  25% of Americans say they will bring the wrong kind of change to Washington and 55% said the Republicans are too inflexible in dealing with Obama. Conversely 55% said they trust - yes TRUST - Obama to strike the right balance with his opponents.  Looks like Palin, Limbaugh and Beck have over played their hands?  Here's hoping.

AMERICAN PROGRESSIVES WAKING UP?
Looks like Progressive in the United States have woken up to the fact that showing up, voting and winning is not enough.  You have to continue to be an informed, engaged and active citizen if you want intelligent evidence-informed public policy. To stay aloof means you will be ruled by extremist ideological zealots.  The President can't do it all by himself.

ARE ALBERTA PROGRESSIVES WAKING UP?
There are lessons here for progressive thinking Canadians, and even progressive thinking Albertans voting federally and provincially.  Stop the fundamentalist and extremists from all stripes can ruin the country, the province and destroy a free and open society.  Apathy used to be Boring. Now it is dangerous to democracy too.  Alberta is waking up to this fact.  Will Alberta show up in the next election to change the direction and co-create the Next Alberta?  

Anticipating a Minority Government in Alberta?

OK - this idea of an Alberta minority government is a very hypothetical possibility today.  There is no imminent election in the province but the politics are more volatile than most people living here have ever seen.

All signs point to a change from the political status quo next election.  Will we do the historical thing and go for a wholesale change of government?  Or will we reaffirm the status quo like in the last provincial election that returned the PCs with an increased majority under Stelmach as a new leader.  Were we that supportive, or looking for stability or just wanting to give him a chance to prove himself?  Or will we be so divided and uncertain about our future by the time the next election comes around that we end up with a minority government.

The key question, of course, is which party would form the minority government?  Some of the power shifts in a minority government situation to a smaller party, provided they have enough votes to keep the minority government in power, or not.  In that case it is just as critical a question for citizens to consider as to who should have that balance of power to make or break the minority government.

If Albertans decide to elect a minority government next time, will it be a sign we want to change incrementally or perhaps we want to send the PCs a message of our discontent but not rejection.  That is what Albertans in Calgary Glenmore did in the by-election by putting the PCs in third place in popular vote.  That was in a constituency that had been held by the Deputy Premier.  OUCH!

I wonder if Albertans interpret that by-election as indication that the warning shot across PC bow has already been delivered.  If so the next election outcome could be much more open and uncertain than the conventional wisdom that tends to think tomorrow will be a reflection and a mere extension of yesterdays results.

The blog poll this week presumes a minority government but not who wins.  It ask who do you want to be the conscience of any minority government should we end up with one.  Will you answer differ depending on who you think will form the minority government?  Or will you trust one party over all others to hold the balance of power to keep any potential minority government on their toes and honest?  Is that balance of power party choice chosen because they are able to assure a wider range of opinions will be debated?  Or is that balance of power party perceived as a government in waiting and able to pick the time and ballot question in the next election after this one?

This is not a random scientific poll just a conversation starter and an attention focus for readers.  I hope your comments on this post will give some insight as to what party you would prefer form a minority and why as well as who you trust to have the balance of power and why.  It is complex stuff and an informed answer requires that you think about where you want the province to go and how to return political stability as part of the means to get there.

Looking forward to your choice and you feedback in the comments.

Is Alberta Tired of Being Taken For Granted by Harper?

Susan Riley writes an interesting take on Liberal leader, Michael Ignatieff's possibilities in a forthcoming by-election in Calgary.  With the sudden and unexpected departure of Jim Prentice, the last progressive voice in the Harper government, there is a need for a by-election by May 2011.  There may be a general election before then but I doubt it will happen until the fall of 2011.  The Liberals should wait for Canadians to see the continuing failure of integrity the hardcore Harper Cons to live up to their fundamental political ideology. Harper's hypocritical character flaws will show again as he will retreat even further from what he touts as sound and conservative fiscal management in their upcoming budget.

Could Calgary send a message for the rest of Alberta in this by-election and elect a Liberal in protest to the indifference and disdain Harper has shown for his home province and his home city?  Harper has been increasingly estranged from Albertans ever since he got all that personal political power and his iron-fist control over everything that happens in the federal government.

Nenshi's election as Mayor last October give us hope.  He won handily over two variations conventional Conservatism. One rejected candidate was run by the Harper machine and the other had her strings pulled by the old Klein crowd.  Provincially there are now more Liberals elected in Calgary than in Edmonton and they used to call us Redmonton back in the day when that was reversed.  Stranger things have happened is all I am saying.

I am not making any political predictions but we know from our conjoint research last May that only 17% of Albertans are in any way satisfied with the way Alberta's federal MPs protect and promote our interests in Ottawa. That indicates changes could happen and a by-election that elects a Liberal is just the ticket to send Harper a much overdue "we are not amused" political message.

When Premier Klein was kicked out by the PC rank and file his "safe" seat was lost to a Liberal in a by-election.  Klein was a lot more popular in Alberta then than Harper can ever hope to be.  When Deputy Premier Stevens quit provincial politics, as quickly and mysteriously as Prentice, the by election that followed went to the Wildrose Alliance as a way to send Premier Stelmach a "we are not amused" political message.  The Liberal vote stayed the same but the protest vote went to the Wildrose Alliance in that by-election.

So stay tuned Alberta and consider the strategic opportunity to send a wake up call to the Harper-Cons in the   soon to be announced by-election.  And if there is a general election beforehand, the opportunity is even greater to ensure Alberta is not taken for granted by the presumptive arrogance of the Harper political machine that we are all mindless sheep without voting or political options.

Welcome to one small piece of the new narrative that is being written about the next Alberta by a revived sense of citizenship that is happening all over the province.

Reflections on Public Education in the Next Alberta

I do some work with the Alberta Teachers Association and the Alberta School Trustees Association.  I am considered a friendly critic by both institutions.  Last year I was invited by four Calgary based ATA locals to provide input into some strategic planning they were doing about public education in the context of the changing community that is Calgary.

Here is a video on some of my thoughts last spring...I say they ring even truer today with the election of Mayor Nenshi as a positive sign of emergent possibilities for that great city.



There is a lot of work to do to rethink the role and relationship of public education to the larger social agenda in Alberta.  Minister Dave Hancock's efforts in Inspiring Education and Inspiring Action on Education set a framework and present an invitation for that to happen.  Lets make sure we re-imagine and rekindle the passion and purpose of our public education system to align with the emerging possibilities that is the Next Alberta.  Lots of potential and possibilities lay before us.  All we have to do is take up the challenges and get going on co-creating the future as progressive and forward thinking Albertans.

I will be posting extensively on this and other issues about the Changing Landscape in Alberta and the next iteration of the Learning Our Way project of  Informed Transformation of our province.  

Jeff Rubin's New Book Will be a Warning and a Wakeup Call for Albertans

Economics Jeff Rubins left the CIBC last March and has written a book to be released in a week or so. Entitled "Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller." It is as a consequence of peak oil that he says will drive prices up over $200 a barrel in 2012 and the "inevitable carbon tax" resulting in "very high transportation costs" which will "throw the machinery of globalization into reverse."

This is good and bad news for Alberta. We are using taxpayer dollars and foregone royalties to subsidize conventional oil and gas exploration in the face of mature basins which means diminishing supplies but at high development costs.

We will have renewed and accelerated pressures once again on oil sands development, upgrading, pipelines. Plus we will have more public infrastructure needs to meet the growth demands on us due to the energy shortfall from facts or fears of peak oil happening around the world.

Alberta needs to get real and responsible about planning and preparing for all of this now and not wait for the next boom to mess us up like the last two have done. Part of proper preparation is for our government to stop giving the resources away to energy companies by subsidies and ridiculously low royalty rates. Also start collecting and accounting for the cash Albertans are owed instead of letting the tenants defer and delay payment without penalty.

While we are at it, we better insist on constant updating of new technology for environmental reasons. Lets not grant any new leases to any companies who are laggards in reclamation of old sites, roads and seismic lines. If you have old ignored well sites, put your people to work to clean them up and reclaim them as is your legal responsibility and central to your social license duty. I am talking real reclamation back to forest with tree replanting for habitat restoration, not just a bit of grass seed scattered on the ground and forget it.

We have to break the back of the default mindset that says the energy industry in Alberta are the de facto governors who run the province and not our elected and somewhat insipid politicians. The energy industry has become Alberta's sacred economic cow. It can wander at will in the marketplace without concern or consideration for the damaged they do nor for the long term well being for rest of us.

In all fairness, some of the oil sands operators are getting it and show a growing concern for deserving their social license to operate. That is partly because they have large site specific capital investments so they have to be good neighbours, not just passing through the neighbourhood like the conventional exploration companies. Oil sands operators are miners, not drillers. They take a long term more integrated view of the impact and implications of what they do with land, water, air, habitat and local cultures. They are starting to behave more like a quality forestry companies. Foresters have a long term reclamation and restoration corporate culture. This partly because they are operating in a renewable resource sector but they have lots to teach the energy sector about good corporate social responsibility.

Albertans have to get serious, start acting like the resource owners and insist the energy industry be more responsible as our tenants who we grant access to exploit our assets for a fair mutual benefit.

If Jeff Rubins is right about the economic and social impacts coming due to peak oil, Alberta is going to be saddled once again with a blessing and a burden of a boom. If we Albertans, as owners, truly want ecological integrity and sustainability in the development of our fossil fuel natural resources we have to get overt and active now. We have to show, in no uncertain terms, both the energy industry and our politicians, that lax enforcement of environmental laws and a lazy tax collection culture plus the past predatory operational practices in the energy sector are no longer going to be tolerated. It is time for Alberta to develop its fossil fuel resources the right way, not just rapidly.