I have started a new blog on the Wordpress platform called RebootAlberta . So I have another learning curve. Such is life. My second post is up and is about a rescent speech and conversation with John Ibbitson, the new Ottawa Bureau Chief for the Globe and Mail.
John and I were both guests of the Alberta Teachers' Association's Fall Planning Session in Banff last week. I enjoyed his company and his comparisons of American and Canadian politics. He was especially interesting when he talked about the differences in how the two countries choose leaders and the impact of the Internet on politics.
This new blog will be more of a public policy perspective and focused on the future of Alberta. It will not be partisan or political per se. That stuff will stay on this blog. I hope you have the time and curiosity to visit both blogs. I hope you subscribe to both so you can be notified when new material is posted.
I really enjoy the comments and the conversation on this blog and look forward to the same if not more participation on RebootAlberta. I called it RebootAlberta because it is pretty obvious to most political observers that for the future prosperity of Alberta we have to Reboot and get a fresh start. That means Albertans have to take Control of some things, Alter others and not be afraid to Delete some other outdated approaches and ideas.
Hope to see you here and at RebootAlberta as well.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Day 7 Society's Child - Where Do We Go From Here?
This is likely to be the seventh and final episode of the Society's Child blog series unless there are further vital developments on the issues and events. Because of the court records we have had a unique inside look at one dramatic instance about how not to serve the best interests of a child at risk. We have see what happens when indifference and process predominates to override mandated public policy principles and purposes.
The public would never get this kind of access to detailed information and background about the government's conduct of a child welfare file. That is because it deals with the rights of a minor child in care and the overarching privacy issues will keep the facts from the public eye. But with a series of court appearances all the way up to the Appeal Court, we have seen a window of hard evidence open up to Albertans and we got to see into some of the inner workings of department of CYSA.
THANKS OWED TO THE COURAGE OF A FOSTER MOTHER:
We have seen an anonymous foster mother show enormous and admirable determination and courage in the face of a very powerful and determined state system. She has been the reason we have had this unique opportunity to see what can happen when a system goes arrogant and even a bit indifferent to public accountability. We have seen the state exercise its enormous power and influence in this matter. They have the means and resources to thwart, frustrate, intimidate and break the spirit and bank account of a citizen in such circumstances. I think the system used all of those powers in this case against the foster mother but she persevered and prevailed. Well done foster mother. And thank you also to her legal counsel. She also stayed the course and showed the best qualities and capabilities of the legal profession in her conduct of this matter.
I also feel sorry for the child at the centre of all this wrangling. He was not well served by the system and those in government authority who are entrusted to ensure his best interests. I also have some sympathy for Richard Ouellet, the departmental Director who personally took the hit for the departmental ineptness. His personal actions and inactions contributed significantly to his fate and are not excused or absolved from responsibility. But he is not likely the only one who was directly involved in the file who is a possible contemptuous contributor to this fiasco. The court noted that and I hope the Ministers involved are seriously looking into this as well.
So let me end on a positive note. I have been provided some links to other high profile child welfare cases. One that is worth noting is the famous Klassen case out of Saskatchewan. There the politically correct presumption in these complex and high-risk situations that "children never lie" was seriously tested. In this case the Alberta child welfare staff are praised by the Saskatchewan courts for how they handled their portion of a a file that was seriously bungled by Saskatchewan authorities. Go to page 59 to read some complimentary commentary about some of Alberta's child welfare officials doing a great job.
A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION:
Finally, I see hopeful signs that concerns raised in this blog series that reviewed in the court action and the concerns of the court are being addressed. Following is copy of a copy of the September 18, 2009 edition of the GOA "Connector" publication to provincial government staff. In it Fay Orr, the Deputy Minister of CYSA obviously starts an internal education process. She outlines the duties, role, relationships and background of Statutory Directors, like Mr. Ouellet, in the department.
This is a step in the right direction and one that I think readers of this blog will appreciate. I think this is a genuine effort to deal with the accountability (and cultural?) problems in the department that this court case uncovered. It is but one of many steps that need to be taken to fix some fundamental problems that seem to pervade too much of the systems in this department - and others in the social services sector including Seniors and Health. I have outlined in blue the most salient part of this commentary that I think shows some hopeful signs of positive change. This clarity of accountability in management relationships was clearly missing as evidenced in the court documents around this case.
Here is the Connector piece that is hopefully some evidence of a new day in Children and Youth Services Alberta:
Statutory Directors
ACYS has three statutory directors – one under the Child, Youth and Family Enhancement Act; one under the Family Support for Children with Disabilities Act; and one under the Child Care Licensing Act.
These directors entrust or delegate the authorities they are given under their respective pieces of legislation to fellow staff, so these staff can do their day-to-day work for children, youth and families. However, the directors do not and can not delegate the legal responsibility they have under legislation. That means these directors are ultimately responsible and accountable for the activities taken under the legislation.
Here’s an example of how this works within child intervention: When a caseworker is delegated by the director with the authority to seek a temporary guardianship order from the court, the caseworker is responsible for implementing the court order and ensuring the well-being of the child. The director is responsible for ensuring there are mechanisms in place by which he or she can be assured that the caseworker is exercising appropriately the delegated authority they have been given.
Approximately 9,000 children and youth are involved in our child intervention system, hundreds of families receive support for raising their child with a disability, and many families count on us to ensure quality and affordable child care. Having mechanisms to monitor the proper use of delegated authority and ensure clear, timely communication between and among the frontlines, support staff and management is crucial to improving outcomes for kids and fulfilling our legislated duties. That’s one of the reasons why we, as a ministry, are always looking at ways to enhance our processes and practices. Recently completed reviews in Foster Care and Child and Youth Advocacy and the current Child Intervention review are prime examples.
With more than 3,100 employees, ours is one of the largest ministries in the provincial government. Whether we work directly with children and families or support those who do, each one of us has an important role to play ensuring that our policies, procedures and legislative responsibilities are followed and that Albertans receive quality services that make a lasting and positive difference in their lives. We are in this together, and continue to rely on and support one another in our daily work for children, youth and families.
THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT:
The department has a lot going on and will face even more severe pressures with the new fiscal realities of the province. The problems will not go away, in fact there will likely be more at risk kids with worsening situations given the stresses of the recession. I hope the political leadership, departmental management and staff will take this case to heart and learn from it. We need them to become even more effective and capable at fulfilling one of societies most difficult function, taking care of kids at risk. That means serious commitment to sustained and substantial change and with the expectation of fewer resources. Not an easy row to hoe but it can't just be measured by merely tracking and cutting the amount of tax dollars dedicated to the area. That does not reflect the values and obligations we as a society owe to these children.
THANKS FOR READING & CARING:
As for this blog series, Society's Child, I think it is time to move on. I am very much into giving the benefit of the doubt to all those in this department who are mandated to serve the best interests of our society's at risk children. The essential reality is these are our kids. Albertans are also responsible for their well being, not just "the government." We are the government in a democracy.
I will continue to watch for positive and negative trends and will comment as best I can and post on them from time to time. Thank you for your dedicated regular reading this blog series. You came out in record numbers and I hope you come back and become regular readers. I will be continuing the regular blog posts on matters that continue to capture my attention and imagination. I will also be doing a new series on something completely different issues that are also critical to the best interests of the citizens of Alberta. Stay tuned for that.
The public would never get this kind of access to detailed information and background about the government's conduct of a child welfare file. That is because it deals with the rights of a minor child in care and the overarching privacy issues will keep the facts from the public eye. But with a series of court appearances all the way up to the Appeal Court, we have seen a window of hard evidence open up to Albertans and we got to see into some of the inner workings of department of CYSA.
THANKS OWED TO THE COURAGE OF A FOSTER MOTHER:
We have seen an anonymous foster mother show enormous and admirable determination and courage in the face of a very powerful and determined state system. She has been the reason we have had this unique opportunity to see what can happen when a system goes arrogant and even a bit indifferent to public accountability. We have seen the state exercise its enormous power and influence in this matter. They have the means and resources to thwart, frustrate, intimidate and break the spirit and bank account of a citizen in such circumstances. I think the system used all of those powers in this case against the foster mother but she persevered and prevailed. Well done foster mother. And thank you also to her legal counsel. She also stayed the course and showed the best qualities and capabilities of the legal profession in her conduct of this matter.
I also feel sorry for the child at the centre of all this wrangling. He was not well served by the system and those in government authority who are entrusted to ensure his best interests. I also have some sympathy for Richard Ouellet, the departmental Director who personally took the hit for the departmental ineptness. His personal actions and inactions contributed significantly to his fate and are not excused or absolved from responsibility. But he is not likely the only one who was directly involved in the file who is a possible contemptuous contributor to this fiasco. The court noted that and I hope the Ministers involved are seriously looking into this as well.
So let me end on a positive note. I have been provided some links to other high profile child welfare cases. One that is worth noting is the famous Klassen case out of Saskatchewan. There the politically correct presumption in these complex and high-risk situations that "children never lie" was seriously tested. In this case the Alberta child welfare staff are praised by the Saskatchewan courts for how they handled their portion of a a file that was seriously bungled by Saskatchewan authorities. Go to page 59 to read some complimentary commentary about some of Alberta's child welfare officials doing a great job.
A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION:
Finally, I see hopeful signs that concerns raised in this blog series that reviewed in the court action and the concerns of the court are being addressed. Following is copy of a copy of the September 18, 2009 edition of the GOA "Connector" publication to provincial government staff. In it Fay Orr, the Deputy Minister of CYSA obviously starts an internal education process. She outlines the duties, role, relationships and background of Statutory Directors, like Mr. Ouellet, in the department.
This is a step in the right direction and one that I think readers of this blog will appreciate. I think this is a genuine effort to deal with the accountability (and cultural?) problems in the department that this court case uncovered. It is but one of many steps that need to be taken to fix some fundamental problems that seem to pervade too much of the systems in this department - and others in the social services sector including Seniors and Health. I have outlined in blue the most salient part of this commentary that I think shows some hopeful signs of positive change. This clarity of accountability in management relationships was clearly missing as evidenced in the court documents around this case.
Here is the Connector piece that is hopefully some evidence of a new day in Children and Youth Services Alberta:
Statutory Directors
ACYS has three statutory directors – one under the Child, Youth and Family Enhancement Act; one under the Family Support for Children with Disabilities Act; and one under the Child Care Licensing Act.
These directors entrust or delegate the authorities they are given under their respective pieces of legislation to fellow staff, so these staff can do their day-to-day work for children, youth and families. However, the directors do not and can not delegate the legal responsibility they have under legislation. That means these directors are ultimately responsible and accountable for the activities taken under the legislation.
Here’s an example of how this works within child intervention: When a caseworker is delegated by the director with the authority to seek a temporary guardianship order from the court, the caseworker is responsible for implementing the court order and ensuring the well-being of the child. The director is responsible for ensuring there are mechanisms in place by which he or she can be assured that the caseworker is exercising appropriately the delegated authority they have been given.
Approximately 9,000 children and youth are involved in our child intervention system, hundreds of families receive support for raising their child with a disability, and many families count on us to ensure quality and affordable child care. Having mechanisms to monitor the proper use of delegated authority and ensure clear, timely communication between and among the frontlines, support staff and management is crucial to improving outcomes for kids and fulfilling our legislated duties. That’s one of the reasons why we, as a ministry, are always looking at ways to enhance our processes and practices. Recently completed reviews in Foster Care and Child and Youth Advocacy and the current Child Intervention review are prime examples.
With more than 3,100 employees, ours is one of the largest ministries in the provincial government. Whether we work directly with children and families or support those who do, each one of us has an important role to play ensuring that our policies, procedures and legislative responsibilities are followed and that Albertans receive quality services that make a lasting and positive difference in their lives. We are in this together, and continue to rely on and support one another in our daily work for children, youth and families.
THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT:
The department has a lot going on and will face even more severe pressures with the new fiscal realities of the province. The problems will not go away, in fact there will likely be more at risk kids with worsening situations given the stresses of the recession. I hope the political leadership, departmental management and staff will take this case to heart and learn from it. We need them to become even more effective and capable at fulfilling one of societies most difficult function, taking care of kids at risk. That means serious commitment to sustained and substantial change and with the expectation of fewer resources. Not an easy row to hoe but it can't just be measured by merely tracking and cutting the amount of tax dollars dedicated to the area. That does not reflect the values and obligations we as a society owe to these children.
THANKS FOR READING & CARING:
As for this blog series, Society's Child, I think it is time to move on. I am very much into giving the benefit of the doubt to all those in this department who are mandated to serve the best interests of our society's at risk children. The essential reality is these are our kids. Albertans are also responsible for their well being, not just "the government." We are the government in a democracy.
I will continue to watch for positive and negative trends and will comment as best I can and post on them from time to time. Thank you for your dedicated regular reading this blog series. You came out in record numbers and I hope you come back and become regular readers. I will be continuing the regular blog posts on matters that continue to capture my attention and imagination. I will also be doing a new series on something completely different issues that are also critical to the best interests of the citizens of Alberta. Stay tuned for that.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
American Health Care Ranks #37 and Some are Proud of it!
So the ultra neurotic armed and dangerous traditional conservatives in the USA are disrupting health care town halls. This video puts some context on the "reality" of these guys trying to sustain the unsustainable American health care system.
And while we smug Canadians love our "system" we don't have much to brag about either when the rankings are exposed in this clip.
Enjoy this example of free speech and spread it around. I wonder if Paul Hipp will tackle Rush Limbaugh's call for the return of segregated buses. Could be a great video.
And while we smug Canadians love our "system" we don't have much to brag about either when the rankings are exposed in this clip.
Enjoy this example of free speech and spread it around. I wonder if Paul Hipp will tackle Rush Limbaugh's call for the return of segregated buses. Could be a great video.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Harper, Layton, Duceppe - the New Coalition of Political Hypocrisy
I caught Robin Williams on Leno last night. In another context he said "...the hypocrisy gods are unhappy and the pay back is going to be a bitch." Couldn't help but think of that reality in terms of Harper, Layton and Duceppe, and their new coalition of the willing to serve their own self interests and beggar the best interests of the country.
The hypocrisy of Harper to say the next election is unnecessary when he did called his own unnecessary election - the last election. He broke his own fixed date election law and ran from the House of Commons begging the Governor General to call an expensive and unnecessary election to save his own hide, the good of the country be damned. It will be interesting to see the outcome of the Democracy Watch law suit against the Harper Cons for breaking their own law.
Then we have Smilin' Jack Layton who all through last Parliament lambasted the Liberals for propping up Harper's radical regime. While he did his dog in a manger magic show of alleging the high road of constantly voting against Harper he now has turned tail and is now covering up for Harper's personal political ambitions and supporting the Reform Conservatives. Talk about "inconvenient truths."
The Liberals were not ready to run another election lat year. They debated and criticized the Harper policies but in the end pragmatism prevailed and they voted for the government policies partly because Harper made every bill a "confidence vote" for no good reason than playing political chicken with the good of the country. The Liberal did not want to be blamed for another unnecessary election, especially one they could neither win nor afford. Canadians all knew that and we wanted the minority parliament to work that way anyway.
Ignatieff is adamant that times have changed. He has money and moxie and the means to make Harper accountable. He intends to do just that and an eventual election is the litmus test for all of this.. Layton now is going to bear the blame for the next unpopular but ultimately very necessary election.
Now Layton is the one who can't afford an election. He is withering in the polls, money is tight, has lost his mojo and he has messed up his message with superficial and cosmetic musings about changing the party name. The only thing New about the New Democrats is the utter hypocrisy of them now propping up the Harper Reform Conservatives. This new found coalition between Layton and Harper is not for the good of the country but to save Layton's political hide.
Duceppe is on autopilot politically. He wants out of the game but can't find an effective exit strategy. An unpopular election that has not yet squeezed the same amount and kind of blood out of Harper as last election will not serve him or his party interests well. Remember last time Harper was even more hypocritical in Quebec, pandering promises to recognize Quebec as a nation and reviving the mythical fiscal imbalance issue in that province. If the Bloc can't play its separatists card for domestic political purposes, they risk the fate of the PQ provincially - a Liberal majority.
And finally we have the sad and sorry state of affairs around Rahim Jaffer's arrest for drunk driving and possession of cocaine. Jaffer is former Harper poster-boy MP from Alberta who lost the last election to a New Democrat of all things. He was just arrested for drunk driving an possession of cocaine in Ontario. An arrest is far from a conviction and he is innocent until proven guilty. It is important to remember that!
In the meantime social media is all over this hypocrisy and that is fair game politically. This is because of the hard line law and order fear based Reform Conservative radio ad he did in the last election campaign. Here is what he said then:
"Jack Layton and the Ottawa NDP have publicly supported the legalization of marijuana. In fact when asked about marijuana Jack Layton called it a wonderful substance which Canadians should be free to smoke at home or in a cafe. Edmontonians understand how difficult it is to make sure our children make the right choices especially on serious issues like drug use. The Conservative Party supports drug free schools and getting tough with drug dealers who sell illegal drugs to children. Don't let our schools go up in smoke..on October 14th vote Conservative."
Rahim Jaffer
Radio Ad
(in the final days of the 2008 Federal Election)
(HAT TIP to Buckdog)
Yes Robin Williams is right. The hypocrisy gods are unhappy and the payback is going to be a bitch. The payback will come in the next election and no hypocrite, be it Harper, Layton or Duceppe, will be safe from the wrath of the vengeful voter.
The hypocrisy of Harper to say the next election is unnecessary when he did called his own unnecessary election - the last election. He broke his own fixed date election law and ran from the House of Commons begging the Governor General to call an expensive and unnecessary election to save his own hide, the good of the country be damned. It will be interesting to see the outcome of the Democracy Watch law suit against the Harper Cons for breaking their own law.
Then we have Smilin' Jack Layton who all through last Parliament lambasted the Liberals for propping up Harper's radical regime. While he did his dog in a manger magic show of alleging the high road of constantly voting against Harper he now has turned tail and is now covering up for Harper's personal political ambitions and supporting the Reform Conservatives. Talk about "inconvenient truths."
The Liberals were not ready to run another election lat year. They debated and criticized the Harper policies but in the end pragmatism prevailed and they voted for the government policies partly because Harper made every bill a "confidence vote" for no good reason than playing political chicken with the good of the country. The Liberal did not want to be blamed for another unnecessary election, especially one they could neither win nor afford. Canadians all knew that and we wanted the minority parliament to work that way anyway.
Ignatieff is adamant that times have changed. He has money and moxie and the means to make Harper accountable. He intends to do just that and an eventual election is the litmus test for all of this.. Layton now is going to bear the blame for the next unpopular but ultimately very necessary election.
Now Layton is the one who can't afford an election. He is withering in the polls, money is tight, has lost his mojo and he has messed up his message with superficial and cosmetic musings about changing the party name. The only thing New about the New Democrats is the utter hypocrisy of them now propping up the Harper Reform Conservatives. This new found coalition between Layton and Harper is not for the good of the country but to save Layton's political hide.
Duceppe is on autopilot politically. He wants out of the game but can't find an effective exit strategy. An unpopular election that has not yet squeezed the same amount and kind of blood out of Harper as last election will not serve him or his party interests well. Remember last time Harper was even more hypocritical in Quebec, pandering promises to recognize Quebec as a nation and reviving the mythical fiscal imbalance issue in that province. If the Bloc can't play its separatists card for domestic political purposes, they risk the fate of the PQ provincially - a Liberal majority.
And finally we have the sad and sorry state of affairs around Rahim Jaffer's arrest for drunk driving and possession of cocaine. Jaffer is former Harper poster-boy MP from Alberta who lost the last election to a New Democrat of all things. He was just arrested for drunk driving an possession of cocaine in Ontario. An arrest is far from a conviction and he is innocent until proven guilty. It is important to remember that!
In the meantime social media is all over this hypocrisy and that is fair game politically. This is because of the hard line law and order fear based Reform Conservative radio ad he did in the last election campaign. Here is what he said then:
"Jack Layton and the Ottawa NDP have publicly supported the legalization of marijuana. In fact when asked about marijuana Jack Layton called it a wonderful substance which Canadians should be free to smoke at home or in a cafe. Edmontonians understand how difficult it is to make sure our children make the right choices especially on serious issues like drug use. The Conservative Party supports drug free schools and getting tough with drug dealers who sell illegal drugs to children. Don't let our schools go up in smoke..on October 14th vote Conservative."
Rahim Jaffer
Radio Ad
(in the final days of the 2008 Federal Election)
(HAT TIP to Buckdog)
Yes Robin Williams is right. The hypocrisy gods are unhappy and the payback is going to be a bitch. The payback will come in the next election and no hypocrite, be it Harper, Layton or Duceppe, will be safe from the wrath of the vengeful voter.
Monday, September 14, 2009
By Election Results Shows that Alberta PC's & Premier Stelmach Have Some Serious Soul Searching to do!
UPDATE Sept 16/09: Now I just got home from Edson and read Dan Arnold's like-minded piece on the implications of the Calgary Glenmore by election in the National Post. Worth a read.
Just got home from meetings in Jasper and looked at the Calgary Glenmore by election results. Congratulations to WAP's Paul Hinman for his impressive victory. The results are going to have to take some time to sink in especially as the PCs start to reflect on the implications of these results.
The PC percentage vote was cut in half in a seat they have held since 1969 and held by the Deputy Premier in the Stelmach PC government. Clearly some PCs stayed home and some switched to WAP in this by election. In the March 2008 election PCs got 6436 votes for 51%, same percentage vote as in the 2004 election. Today with a high quality candidate with lots of name recognition, the PCs fell to 26% of the popular vote. ASTONISHING!
The total turnout for this by election was 41% (11,208 votes) compared to 44% (12701) votes in 2008 when there was a very poor turnout in Calgary PC country as they tried to send Stelmach a message. In the 2008 election the WAP vote was non-existent at 8% (1025 votes) Well this time the WAP supporters showed up and lots other conservatively inclined Calgarians decided to use this by election to send a very strong message.
Last time there was such a dramatic rejection of a PC candidate in Calgary was in 1992 at the end of the Getty era when Rod Love came in third behind a Liberal and an NDP candidate garnering only about 15% of the total vote.
Just got home from meetings in Jasper and looked at the Calgary Glenmore by election results. Congratulations to WAP's Paul Hinman for his impressive victory. The results are going to have to take some time to sink in especially as the PCs start to reflect on the implications of these results.
The PC percentage vote was cut in half in a seat they have held since 1969 and held by the Deputy Premier in the Stelmach PC government. Clearly some PCs stayed home and some switched to WAP in this by election. In the March 2008 election PCs got 6436 votes for 51%, same percentage vote as in the 2004 election. Today with a high quality candidate with lots of name recognition, the PCs fell to 26% of the popular vote. ASTONISHING!
The total turnout for this by election was 41% (11,208 votes) compared to 44% (12701) votes in 2008 when there was a very poor turnout in Calgary PC country as they tried to send Stelmach a message. In the 2008 election the WAP vote was non-existent at 8% (1025 votes) Well this time the WAP supporters showed up and lots other conservatively inclined Calgarians decided to use this by election to send a very strong message.
Last time there was such a dramatic rejection of a PC candidate in Calgary was in 1992 at the end of the Getty era when Rod Love came in third behind a Liberal and an NDP candidate garnering only about 15% of the total vote.
The Liberals came in second again and held their position in terms of popular vote at 34% compared to 33% in 2008.
So the Monday morning political quarterbacks will be out in droves for the next few days. Here are some grounding realities that can cut both ways. This is a by election and there is 3 years until the next election, lots can happen. There is a WAP leadership in a month that will frame them in a certain way, for good or ill for their longer term political fortunes.
The Liberals are in suspended animation floating in a political weightlessness bouncing off issues and events but not creating them. The Greens are a spend force due to internal squabbling. The NDP are still trying to perfect yesterday and Albertans are happy with them a the Jiminy Cricket kind of conscience of government but not ever to be a government.
The political reaction from Premier Stelmach is what I will be watching for. How will the Premier's Office interpret and respond to this slap up the side of the head? How will the core group of Stelmach's leadership team who brung him to the dance respond. They are all in Cabinet so it will be interesting to see how they respond and what they do to change things.
What will be the PC Caucus reaction? They used to tolerate Klein's shortcomings, both personally and politically, because most of the PC MLAs felt that they owed Klein their seat. He was always more popular than the party. None of the current caucus owes Stelmach their seat. PC caucus reaction will be interesting to watch.
How will the PC party membership respond in the November AGM leadership review vote? Will the rally behind the Premier? Will the Social Conservatives in the party, who had a group of about 12 like-minded MLAs orchestrate Bill 44, feel even more emboldened and vote against Stelmach? Will the Progressives decide to stay home? Or will the party show up and rally around and support Stelmach? Or will they vote confidence in the leadership because they want to support the "brand" as much or more than the leadership?
What if Stelmach gets around 70% support? Will that be enough to keep control of the government? What if he does a Joe Clark and says he wants to reaffirm his leadership with another leadership contest? That would have to happen pretty quickly given the turmoil in the economy and the strain on the social contract. My guess is only Ted Morton could be up and ready to go to challenge the current leadership.
Politics is a cruel and all too often, a blood sport. Based on this by election, the recession, budget cuts now and much more next year and the political power shift to the right in the PC party since the leadership I expect there will be political cruelty, both against politicians and even by them. I hope not but experience tells me turmoil and tensions are the most likely to be the political forecast for Alberta's political climate for the foreseeable future.
It does not have to be that way but unless Stelmach becomes, or is allowed (?) to become the Stelmach that I know, it is not going to be easy or pretty in Alberta politics - not for quite some time. The next election is 3 years away.
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