Brandon Beasley has written a very interesting opinion piece in the University of Calgary student newspaper The Gauntlet "Alberta Politics: Out With the Old."
His point is that the re-alignment of Alberta politics would see the Progressive Conservative Party split in two. The progressives would go to"the upstart centrist" Alberta Party and the conservatives would join the social and fiscal conservative Wildrose. The Alberta Liberals would fold into the centrist Alberta Party leaving the NDP on the left.
This would provide a full spectrum of choices for a revived democracy in Alberta. An interesting proposal for sure. I wonder what it would take to make it happen. For sure the PCs are likely to split to some further degree with either social conservatives leaving if a progressive wins and progressives leaving it Ted Morton wins. There is no leadership candidate who has announced yet that is compelling enough to bridge that chasm.
As for the Liberals, unless someone like Anne McLellan runs and wins the leadership there is little chance for change to the fortunes there. I don't see Anne wanting that "challenge" these days.
The NDP has it's core support and is comfortable in its role as the Jiminy Cricket kind of conscience of Alberta politics. They are there just to keep the others honest and on their toes...and they are good at it. In fact they are very good at it that nobody wants to see them in any other role.
Just some thoughts on possible options as time goes on and three political parties are hold leadership campaigns. Hard to imagine the same old - same old is going to be the expected outcome of such a thirst by citizens for a real change in Alberta politics.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Oil Sands Film Completely One-Sided
There is a need for a real conversation about the oil sands based on evidence and science. Propaganda by any side does not help and it is good to see some evidence based push back by industry. The slick ad campaigns by industry and the Alberta government are perceived as nothing more than the propaganda from the other side.
Albertans as owners of the oil sands are not amused by any of this posturing. Albertan's own the oil sands and we are becoming a target around the world. The agitprop approaches are not helpful. We want and deserve to have a sense of pride in this amazing opportunity. That opportunity is not just to get rich as possible as quickly as possible.
The real opportunity is to be the best stewards of our Alberta owned hydrocarbon resources on the planet. That means environmental stewardship, biodiversity stewardship, social impact stewardship, reclamation stewardship and to maximize the fiscal return from the exploitation of the resource for future generations of Albertans.
Creating jobs and attracting investment is just the ante into the oil sands game. There is so much more that needs to be done, can be done and to the credit of those oil sands corporations in the Oil Sands Leadership Initiative - is being done. More on that in later posts.
Albertans as owners of the oil sands are not amused by any of this posturing. Albertan's own the oil sands and we are becoming a target around the world. The agitprop approaches are not helpful. We want and deserve to have a sense of pride in this amazing opportunity. That opportunity is not just to get rich as possible as quickly as possible.
The real opportunity is to be the best stewards of our Alberta owned hydrocarbon resources on the planet. That means environmental stewardship, biodiversity stewardship, social impact stewardship, reclamation stewardship and to maximize the fiscal return from the exploitation of the resource for future generations of Albertans.
Creating jobs and attracting investment is just the ante into the oil sands game. There is so much more that needs to be done, can be done and to the credit of those oil sands corporations in the Oil Sands Leadership Initiative - is being done. More on that in later posts.
Creative Culture is Key to Inspiring Action on Education
Haley Simons is the driving force behind Creative Alberta and one of the key people behind Sir Ken Robinson coming to Red Deer last week.
Creative Alberta is also a strong supporter of the citizen's movement to Save Our Fine Arts (SOFA) that has 7000 people involved in the cause. SOFA convened almost 700 citizens to an evening n Calgary on January 25 to hear Minister Dave Hancock and others talk about the role of arts education in Alberta. You can watch the SHAW TV coverage of the SOFA event and see the broadcast time slots at this link.
Haley recently wrote a piece on the SOFA meeting that was published by the Alberta Teachers' Association. I highly recommend you read it.
I was at both evenings and thoroughly enjoyed both of them...and am part of Creative Alberta and a fan of SOFA too.
Next up in the public engagement on the future of public education is a public lecture by Michael Adams and Jean Twenge on March 17 at Sutton Place Hotel in Edmonton. This is part of the Learning Our Way to the Next Alberta project we are doing in conjunction with the ATA. You can learn more and get tickets here.
Creative Alberta is also a strong supporter of the citizen's movement to Save Our Fine Arts (SOFA) that has 7000 people involved in the cause. SOFA convened almost 700 citizens to an evening n Calgary on January 25 to hear Minister Dave Hancock and others talk about the role of arts education in Alberta. You can watch the SHAW TV coverage of the SOFA event and see the broadcast time slots at this link.
Haley recently wrote a piece on the SOFA meeting that was published by the Alberta Teachers' Association. I highly recommend you read it.
I was at both evenings and thoroughly enjoyed both of them...and am part of Creative Alberta and a fan of SOFA too.
Next up in the public engagement on the future of public education is a public lecture by Michael Adams and Jean Twenge on March 17 at Sutton Place Hotel in Edmonton. This is part of the Learning Our Way to the Next Alberta project we are doing in conjunction with the ATA. You can learn more and get tickets here.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Watching the Culture War in Right Wing Alberta
The latest Environics Research Group Poll of 1,011 random Albertans 18 years old and over, in six geographic segments, Edmonton, Calgary, small cities, rural south, central and northern done between January 20 and 31, 2011 with a margin of error of +/-3.1% 95 times out of 100.
Good News for the PCs? Not So Much!
The results are very interesting and imply some surprising changes. Notwithstanding the turmoil in health care from Duckett to Sherman and the emergency room crisis, the PC support not only held, it improved from a pretty consistent base of 34% in three surveys from October 2009, March and November 2010 to 38% today.
There is a misplaced sense of relief in the PCs based on finally having hit the bottom...an presuming the only way to go it up. Remember Premier Stelmach announced he is leaving politics (eventually) on January 25, with wall to wall media coverage and right in the middle of this poll.
What is the contributing factor of the 4% bounce for the PCs? Some will say the Stelmach departure announcement and I expect that is partly right. Others will say the Wildrose Alliance has peaked and the support was a parking place to send a message of dissatisfaction to Premier Stelmach. He seems to have gotten the message by quitting so it is time to return to the PC fold. That is partly right too. It looks like it is definitely right when yo see a 10% up tick for the PCs outside Edmonton and Calgary...that will be cause for a sigh of relief in Toryland. The anger fomenting in rural Alberta over land bills and fears of private property rights in the face of increased Ministerial power over people is not turning folks off the PC or causing them to rush to the Alliance. In fact the Alliance support in rural and small city Alberta is down 8%. Go figure
Bottom line, the PCs are in minority government territory no matter which way you slice the numbers. That is merely survival at best and not success by any measure given the dynasty they have created.
Wildrose Alliance Peaked and Piqued?
The question about the WAP is how solid is their support and what level is it at when push come to shove at the actual ballot box? As a place to protest the Alliance has been handy since the Calgary Glenmore By-election when the Deputy Premier quit. The Alliance won but the Liberal vote held and the PCs dropped to third place from a very comfortable margin of support from before. The message was being sent by some Calgary PCs staying home and others in open anger with their perceived loss of influence on the Premier's office from the Ralph Klein days.
The drop of 2% in Calgary for the PCs and the Alliance with a 3% drop by the NDP resulted in a 5% bounce for the Liberals. Calgary is getting interesting and volatile now too as voters there showed with the election of Mayor Naheed Nenshi, an Alberta Party supporter. Danielle Smith is more than Calgary-centric but the "entitled" power elites in Calgary now longer control the vote results. Nenshi proved that last October.
The dramatic drop of Alliance support in Edmonton (-7%) and the Rest of Alberta (-8) has to be unnerving for the Smith supporters. The anger with the PCs and the media hype over Smith versus Stelmach is over so Albertans are now taking a serious look at the Alliance and their politics.
Whither the Liberals and the NDP?
The overall results show the Liberals up 3% and the NDP down 3%, and this poll was done before Dr. Swann quit the Liberal leadership. The NDP are trending down 3% everywhere in Alberta. If this holds they may be seen as irrelevant in the next election, especially if the major trends are who will win the culture war on the right and who in the centre can we count on to replace both the Morton and Smith factions in the social conservative and public service stifling approach they both take.
For the Liberals there is some reason to hope not all is lost with a 3% overall bounce coming mostly from Calgary and Edmonton areas. At 22% they are within the margin of error with the Alliance. Will they be the choice for opposition or will the Alliance get the nod? Way too early to tell and lots more political drama to unfold before that question is top of mind.
Things Not Considered!
There are two serious other issues not captured or reported in this poll. The Undecided is said to be 18% overall slightly more than past polls. However the poll results are blended answers of two questions. "If a provincial election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for?" The second question is of the Undecided. "Perhaps you have not yet made up your mind; is there nevertheless a party you might be presently inclined to support?"
When you back out the second "inclined to support question" you get the true undecided. I called Tony Coulson of Environics to find out the actual Undecided without the leaning aspect. It is a whopping 27% - not the blended decided and leaning numbers that left a 18% Undecided!
That is very significant to show the volatility of the Alberta voter these days. We don't know how that 27% distributes between Edmonton, Calgary and the Rest of Alberta but with a population of 1/3 in each segment, it could be significant in final seat results. If you back out that 9% leaning vote and distribute it proportionately with the Decided votes the hard core support for the PCs and the Alliance is significantly softer and less than reported.
What: No Alberta Party?
Finally there is no reference to the Alberta Party in the results. I understood that the Alberta Party was excluded from the November 2010 Environics Poll because they did not have a seat. In all fairness that was true for the most part in this survey period. Dave Taylor joined the Alberta Party as its first MLA on January 25th, right in the middle of the data gathering. However, next time I expect the Alberta Party will be included. It will be interesting to see what impact the Alberta Party has overall and on Liberal, NDP and progressives in the PCs who are afraid of that party moving more to the right under Morton.
Good News for the PCs? Not So Much!
The results are very interesting and imply some surprising changes. Notwithstanding the turmoil in health care from Duckett to Sherman and the emergency room crisis, the PC support not only held, it improved from a pretty consistent base of 34% in three surveys from October 2009, March and November 2010 to 38% today.
There is a misplaced sense of relief in the PCs based on finally having hit the bottom...an presuming the only way to go it up. Remember Premier Stelmach announced he is leaving politics (eventually) on January 25, with wall to wall media coverage and right in the middle of this poll.
What is the contributing factor of the 4% bounce for the PCs? Some will say the Stelmach departure announcement and I expect that is partly right. Others will say the Wildrose Alliance has peaked and the support was a parking place to send a message of dissatisfaction to Premier Stelmach. He seems to have gotten the message by quitting so it is time to return to the PC fold. That is partly right too. It looks like it is definitely right when yo see a 10% up tick for the PCs outside Edmonton and Calgary...that will be cause for a sigh of relief in Toryland. The anger fomenting in rural Alberta over land bills and fears of private property rights in the face of increased Ministerial power over people is not turning folks off the PC or causing them to rush to the Alliance. In fact the Alliance support in rural and small city Alberta is down 8%. Go figure
Bottom line, the PCs are in minority government territory no matter which way you slice the numbers. That is merely survival at best and not success by any measure given the dynasty they have created.
Wildrose Alliance Peaked and Piqued?
The question about the WAP is how solid is their support and what level is it at when push come to shove at the actual ballot box? As a place to protest the Alliance has been handy since the Calgary Glenmore By-election when the Deputy Premier quit. The Alliance won but the Liberal vote held and the PCs dropped to third place from a very comfortable margin of support from before. The message was being sent by some Calgary PCs staying home and others in open anger with their perceived loss of influence on the Premier's office from the Ralph Klein days.
The drop of 2% in Calgary for the PCs and the Alliance with a 3% drop by the NDP resulted in a 5% bounce for the Liberals. Calgary is getting interesting and volatile now too as voters there showed with the election of Mayor Naheed Nenshi, an Alberta Party supporter. Danielle Smith is more than Calgary-centric but the "entitled" power elites in Calgary now longer control the vote results. Nenshi proved that last October.
The dramatic drop of Alliance support in Edmonton (-7%) and the Rest of Alberta (-8) has to be unnerving for the Smith supporters. The anger with the PCs and the media hype over Smith versus Stelmach is over so Albertans are now taking a serious look at the Alliance and their politics.
Whither the Liberals and the NDP?
The overall results show the Liberals up 3% and the NDP down 3%, and this poll was done before Dr. Swann quit the Liberal leadership. The NDP are trending down 3% everywhere in Alberta. If this holds they may be seen as irrelevant in the next election, especially if the major trends are who will win the culture war on the right and who in the centre can we count on to replace both the Morton and Smith factions in the social conservative and public service stifling approach they both take.
For the Liberals there is some reason to hope not all is lost with a 3% overall bounce coming mostly from Calgary and Edmonton areas. At 22% they are within the margin of error with the Alliance. Will they be the choice for opposition or will the Alliance get the nod? Way too early to tell and lots more political drama to unfold before that question is top of mind.
Things Not Considered!
There are two serious other issues not captured or reported in this poll. The Undecided is said to be 18% overall slightly more than past polls. However the poll results are blended answers of two questions. "If a provincial election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for?" The second question is of the Undecided. "Perhaps you have not yet made up your mind; is there nevertheless a party you might be presently inclined to support?"
When you back out the second "inclined to support question" you get the true undecided. I called Tony Coulson of Environics to find out the actual Undecided without the leaning aspect. It is a whopping 27% - not the blended decided and leaning numbers that left a 18% Undecided!
That is very significant to show the volatility of the Alberta voter these days. We don't know how that 27% distributes between Edmonton, Calgary and the Rest of Alberta but with a population of 1/3 in each segment, it could be significant in final seat results. If you back out that 9% leaning vote and distribute it proportionately with the Decided votes the hard core support for the PCs and the Alliance is significantly softer and less than reported.
What: No Alberta Party?
Finally there is no reference to the Alberta Party in the results. I understood that the Alberta Party was excluded from the November 2010 Environics Poll because they did not have a seat. In all fairness that was true for the most part in this survey period. Dave Taylor joined the Alberta Party as its first MLA on January 25th, right in the middle of the data gathering. However, next time I expect the Alberta Party will be included. It will be interesting to see what impact the Alberta Party has overall and on Liberal, NDP and progressives in the PCs who are afraid of that party moving more to the right under Morton.
Albertan's Have to Take Back Control of Their Democracy
There is a great deal of defensiveness from some Alberta government-side politicians who are feeling at-risk these days with the new volatility in the Alberta political culture. That defensiveness is being expressed in public meetings by some - not all - PC MLAs lashing out at citizens and accusing advocates of being liars. Not good.
Danielle Klooster has done a very engaging blog post around such an experience that I recommend you read and reflect on. (H/T to AlbertaVote.ca for the link)
There is an increasing level of anxiety and angst reflected in what amounts to casual corruption through acts of intimidation and bullying of employees, agencies, boards and commissions by political people in "our" government. that behaviour includes politicians actually calling staff people directly making vague threats and innuendos clearly embedded in the kinds of questions they ask.
It is very difficult to bring truth to power when power has its own agenda. It is even more difficult to bring truth when that agenda is abusive of those who are vulnerable and pushed to compliance for personal survival.
We know that Albertans see Integrity and Accountability as the most important values in their politicians. We also know we don't have enough of it in our current political culture. An election is coming up. That is a time of citizen's making choices and sending messages. Silence and cynicism is no longer an option if you value your democracy and want to have your say.
Compliance in the face of bullying is not an option if you want respect from the politicians who are supposedly working you. Complacency is not an option if you want self respect. Citizenship is about leadership and in a democracy that leadership starts by looking yourself in the mirror and staking a stand.
It's time for Albertans to take back control of our democracy by engaging. It is time to empower and embrace alternatives to the status quo. It is time to delete those from political power who are inept, abusive and believe they are above accountability to the public. It's time for Albertans to start thinking for a change in government and about a change in governance.
Danielle Klooster has done a very engaging blog post around such an experience that I recommend you read and reflect on. (H/T to AlbertaVote.ca for the link)
There is an increasing level of anxiety and angst reflected in what amounts to casual corruption through acts of intimidation and bullying of employees, agencies, boards and commissions by political people in "our" government. that behaviour includes politicians actually calling staff people directly making vague threats and innuendos clearly embedded in the kinds of questions they ask.
It is very difficult to bring truth to power when power has its own agenda. It is even more difficult to bring truth when that agenda is abusive of those who are vulnerable and pushed to compliance for personal survival.
We know that Albertans see Integrity and Accountability as the most important values in their politicians. We also know we don't have enough of it in our current political culture. An election is coming up. That is a time of citizen's making choices and sending messages. Silence and cynicism is no longer an option if you value your democracy and want to have your say.
Compliance in the face of bullying is not an option if you want respect from the politicians who are supposedly working you. Complacency is not an option if you want self respect. Citizenship is about leadership and in a democracy that leadership starts by looking yourself in the mirror and staking a stand.
It's time for Albertans to take back control of our democracy by engaging. It is time to empower and embrace alternatives to the status quo. It is time to delete those from political power who are inept, abusive and believe they are above accountability to the public. It's time for Albertans to start thinking for a change in government and about a change in governance.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)