What Do We Do Now?

The Political Paradox that is Alberta

The political paradox for Alberta is that, while we have had majority governments since 1971 we have had unstable governance since about 2004.  In that election year Ralph Klein kept a majority government but was loosing popular support.  He gave up 12 seats that election, mostly in the Edmonton region.

The End of King Ralph
The Progressive Conservative 2004 election message to citizens on the doorsteps was this would be Ralph's last election and he would be retiring.  After the election Ralph mussed about staying on as party leader.  The PC rank and file membership sent him a strong message in the end of March 2006 leadership review vote at the AGM.   Klein went from a typical 90% public and party approval rating to essentially a vote of non-confidence where he eked  out a slim majority in the leadership review vote.  Ralph was pushed out by the party members and a leadership campaign began.

One Person One Vote & Open PC Party Memberships 
By October 2006 eight candidates were in the running, including  (irony alert)  Lyle Oberg.  This Minister had been fired from Cabinet and suspended from the PC Caucus on March 22, before the dump Ralph party vote but ran for the leadership anyway.  Long-shot Ed Stelmach lead on preferential vote system by less that 500 votes but was the overwhelming second choice and beat the establishment candidate Jim Dinning by more than 12,000 votes in the end.

Stelmach
The three front runners, in perceived order of power, were Jim Dinning. Ted Morton and Ed Stelmach.  Dinning had support of 38 caucus member and three federal Conservatives.  Stelmach had 13 caucus member's on the first ballot and 6 more on the second.  Ted Morton, really a federal Reform Party and Canadian Alliance party member had one caucus member support him but the strong Reform Party grassroots machine to sell memberships.

Since May 27, 2011 the day Ed Stelmach resigned, and March 18, 2017, when Rachel Notley was elected, Alberta has had 6 Premiers.  All had majority governments but they hardly evidenced anything approximating certainty and stability in governance.

Redford
When Redford won the contest she, like Stelmach, came from behind and up the middle to win.  The contest was seen to be between an urban establishment candidate, Gary Mar, a rural establishment candidate, Doug Horner and, yet again, Ted Morton.  Mar held an impressive 41% of the first ballot vote.  Redford was a surprisingly in second place at 18.74% and Horner was a disappointing third with 14.55%.  Ted Morton was never really in this contest but garnered  11.73% for 4th place and was eliminated.

Redford was over 13,000 votes behind on the first ballot but won by a mere 1600 votes with overwhelming second ballot support.  She had only 1 caucus member supporting here on the first ballot and 5 more joined her for the second go round. whereas Gary Mar had 27 caucus member supporting him and 7 more came over on the second ballot.  Mar had been out of politics from 2007 representing the province in Washington D.C.  The rural establishment candidate Doug Horner had 14 caucus members behind him.

With such low caucus support and the influence of outsider "instant Tories" who bought PC memberships only to vote in the leadership, Redford had no clout as leader.  Her disappointing style and narcissistic style and overt sense of entitlement destroyed her leadership and she resigned on March 19, 2014 and gave up her seat in August 2014.

Prentice  & the Final Acts of the PC Passion Play
Dave Hancock was the unanimous caucus choice for interim leader until Jim Prentice won on September 6 2014 with the first ballot total of almost 18,000 votes while his combined opposition only garnered 5400 between them.  Prentice called an earl;y election for May 5, 2015, ignoring the PC's much vaunted fixed election law.  He lost badly to Rachel Notley and the NDP and resigned his seat even before this own riding results were counted.

Kenney Comes to  Alberta and the UCP is Born
For some inexplicable reason, Harper's political acolyte, Jason Kenney passed on he federal Conservative party leadership and moved in on the provincial Progressive Conservative Party leadership.  He was out to Unite the Right by purging the progressives from the PC party, taking it over as a conservative rump then consolidating with the Wildrose Party into a new "true" conservative party that he would lead to defeat the socialist NDP.  And he did with the political death of the PCAA, the Wildrose and the birth of the United Conservative Party.

On March 18, 2017 Kenney won the PCAA leadership on the first ballot with 1,113 supporters and 75.5% of the 1,476 total votes cast.  The other two candidates ran to keep the PCAA and rebuild it but to no avail.

In late July 2017 the PCAA and Wildrose membership held votes on forming the United Conservative Party.  IN both cases the decision was profound.

There was a turnout of 25,000 Wildrose members, representing 57% of total members  They overwhelming accepted the UCP option at 95.4%.  No one knows where the other 43% of Wildrose members stood on this because there was no comments from them at all.

The Progressive Conservative party had over 27,000 members participate and voted 95% in favour of the new united party.  That was a 55% turnout, again little if anything was heard from the 45% of PCAA members who stayed away from the unity vote.

A mere seven months later, on October 28, 2017, Kenney again won the UCP leadership on the first ballot with 61% leaving Brian Jean, the Wildrose candidate at 31.5, with the token progressive Doug Schweitzer at a mere 7.3% support.  Since then Messrs. Jean and Schweitzer have hardly been seen or heard of as Kenney purges the Brian Jean supporters from party operations, as he did with progressives in the PCAA.  He consolidates his power and turns the UCP into the KenneyCons.

Leadership Volatility Not Over Yet.
Every political Party in Alberta has a turnover in leadership.  Notley became NDP leader in October 2014 and lead them to majority government in May on 2015.

The Alberta Liberals elected David Khan as leader on June 5, 2017.  The Alberta Greens chose Romy Tittel as leader on November 4, 2017.

Greg Clark became Alberta Party leader in 2013 and was the longest serving party leader until he recently resigned.  He now leaves Notley as the longest serving provincial party leader at 3 years and 3 months at the time of writing.  The next rookie leader will be the Alberta Party who will take office on Feb 28th.

What Do We Do Now?
This brief  history Alberta's political leadership shows how we got to where we are today.  It illustrates just how volatile our political culture is and how the partisan fortunes and forces are shifting.  Notwithstanding perpetual majority governments political volatility is likely to continue into and through the next election.

Will it result in a minority government or will Albertans sustain the support for the NDP majority?  Are the unscientific political polls right and is the province about to shift to the ultra-right to a UCP majority?   Next post I will lay out some scenarios and speculate on what I think will happen...or at least could happen...and why.

Subscribe?
.  You might want to subscribe to this blog to get notice of new posts.  I will be doing a series of posts on Alberta politics beyond the horse race analysis. However I will do some analysis on the skills and policy positions of the three Alberta Party Candidates and share my views on what they bring to Alberta politics and the fortunes of the Alberta Party itself.

I will delve more into what the Alberta Aspiration should be and what we need to change so we can adapt and reach our potential.  I will explore the dangers of tired old-thinking mindset of those who say we should return to the antediluvian Alberta Advantage.  I will look at the risks associated with  the adversarial ideological left versus right bipolar politics we have today.  I will try to offer ideas and options and reasons for moderate progressive citizens to rethink their reasons and responsibilities  for political participation.  Stay tuned and come along for the ride.

Join the $20 Alberta Political Revolution

THE "BURNING" QUESTION:
I run some non-scientific surveys on this blog from time to time.  I don't call them polls.  They are not.  I call them burning questions.  Stuff that citizens need to pay attention to and ought have an opinion about.  The last burning question was anything but that.  It was a fizzle.

The not so burning question asked blog readers their intentions to participate in voting for the various party leadership races that are happening in Alberta right now.  The response was underwhelming at 49 participants.  It was the lowest level of participation in any burning question I ever asked on this blog.  I know most blog readers are lurkers not commenters and why would they be motivated to respond to a simplistic curiosity like the burning question.  I can discount the low participation and shrug it off.  But I think there is something vital at stake here.  That is our democracy and our freedoms.

CAN WE STILL TAKE DEMOCRACY FOR GRANTED IN ALBERTA?
OK my ego is not so out of control that I think my blog is vital to democracy. It is not.  But my right of free speech, freedom of expression, freedom of association, and all the rest of my citizenship rights are foundational to the fact that I can write this blog and express my opinions openly.  There are consequences for speaking out against authority and power even if you have those attributes...just ask Raj Sherman.

There is lots of intimidation, threats, bullying and coercion that powerful forces will try and apply to silence or discredit you.  I will be blogging on that in coming days.  I will be starting with the reasons I feel we need a public inquiry on health care to uncover and expose any abuses of power in that area.  I will expand the discussion into other areas of government and the power structure in Alberta that I have knowledge of or have been informed about.

ARE YOU SURE IT IS YOUR DEMOCRACY?
Back to the core concern. I have serious fears about low citizenship participation rates in Alberta's democracy.  I think indifference, cynicism and skepticism is dangerous.  The consequences of not speaking out, not getting informed and not fully participating as a citizen are more dangerous than any "damage" any petty-minded power-preserving political bully might be able to do to any of us for being responsible citizens.

In the spirit of responsible citizenship I strongly suggest every adult Albertan take full advantage of a unique political game changing opportunity that is alive right now.  That is the change in leadership of three of our political parties in Alberta. If you want the political culture in Alberta to change making changes at the leadership levels seems to be a pretty good place to start. To change the kind of person we have to choose from to be the next Premier of Alberta seems to me to be an offer we ought not refuse.

(photo credit: Shane Becker, veganstraightedge in Flickr)

TIME FOR A DEMOCRATIC REVOLUTION IN ALBERTA?
So here is the "revolutionary" idea.  For $20 bucks you can buy a membership in the Alberta Party, the Liberal Party and the Progressive Conservative Party.  Then you have a direct say in the selection of the leader of all three of those political parties.  You can decide which candidate you want to support and even have a serious influence and make a real difference in the future direction of Alberta.  By supporting progressive thinking politicians in all the contest you can also set an example for others in your networks to step up and become a $20 Buck Revolutionary.

It is simple to get started.  Here are the links to join on line:  Alberta Party - Liberal Party - Progressive Conservative Party.  Get involved Alberta.  Be the change you want to see.  Be a responsible citizen.

BTW the burning question response was not only low, it was not very supportive of the $20 Buck Revolution.   But that can change if people really want change. Remember these results are merely conversation starters.  They are not conclusive of beliefs or behaviours - even of my blog readers.  Percentages of participants who said they will participate in the current political leadership campaigns were:

• Alberta Party          30%
• Liberal Party           18%
• PC Party                 12%
• All of Above             6%
• None of Above       32%

Not promising starting place for the $20 Buck Revolution - but hey - you have to start somewhere.  Mayor Nenshi was at 1% support three months before election day.  It could/should happen again.  Join the $20 Buck Revolution and be the change you want to see.

Thoughts on the Changing Political Landscape in Alberta

Brandon Beasley has written a very interesting opinion piece in the University of Calgary student newspaper The Gauntlet "Alberta Politics: Out With the Old."

His point is that the re-alignment of Alberta politics would see the Progressive Conservative Party split in two.  The progressives would go to"the upstart centrist" Alberta Party and the conservatives would join the social and fiscal conservative Wildrose.  The Alberta Liberals would fold into the centrist Alberta Party leaving the NDP on the left.

This would provide a full spectrum of choices for a revived democracy in Alberta.  An interesting proposal for sure.  I wonder what it would take to make it happen.  For sure the PCs are likely to split to some further degree with either social conservatives leaving if a progressive wins and progressives leaving it Ted Morton wins.  There is no leadership candidate who has announced yet that is compelling enough to bridge that chasm.

As for the Liberals, unless someone like Anne McLellan runs and wins the leadership there is little chance for change to the fortunes there.  I don't see Anne wanting that "challenge" these days.

The NDP has it's core support and is comfortable in its role as the Jiminy Cricket kind of conscience of Alberta politics.  They are there just to keep the others honest and on their toes...and they are good at it. In fact they are very good at it that nobody wants to see them in any other role.  

Just some thoughts on possible options as time goes on and three political parties are hold leadership campaigns.  Hard to imagine the same old - same old is going to be the expected outcome of such a thirst by citizens for a real change in Alberta politics.

Alberta is Changing - But for the Better?

There is a fascinating set of op-eds in today's Edmonton Journal that I recommend highly to every Albertan who wants a real change in the political culture and direction of this province.

BLACK DAYS FOR THE SWANN
Graham Thomson chronicles (and foreshadows?) the plight of David Swann and the Alberta Liberals.  They have turned into spectators not participants as the political ground shifts beneath them...and everyone else.  Given the ineptness of the Stelmach PCs and the unease of the real agenda of the Alliance, the Liberals should be soaring in the polls and the natural alternative for informed engaged and progressive thinking Albertans.  It has not happened.  Asking why this is the case is pointless now.  What to do about the rise of the right and the self-righteous is the key question now.

We have to do something about the ugly side of politics if good guys like Ed Stelmach and David Swann are politically  sand-bagged and personally crucified by dark forces of self interest and personal power aspirations.  Democracy needs am makeover in this province.

PRESTON MANNING IS WISE BUT TOO NARROW
Next up is a very well reasoned essay by former Reform leader Preston Manning saying the PCs best reinvigorate with a new leader of it is "game over."  Like so many on the enthocentric far right, they tend to drink too much of their own bathwater.  Manning does that in spades.  He only sees the Wildrose Alliance as a viable alternative.  Given his history and the pack he runs with, that narrow view is understandable, but he is a much wiser observer of the political scene to be so myopic.  

Take his commentary and replace Wildrose Alliance with Alberta Party each time.  Except for the name and a few other changes the story is the same one. (apologies to Neil Diamond - I stole that line from his song "I Am I Said").  The emergence and growth of the Alberta Party shows a citizen's movement morphing into a political party with spirit, energy and an attitude that the status quo nor a return to the 50s is not the preferred future for Alberta.  With our gifts, talents and skills Alberta should aspire beyond the "Alberta Advantage" attitude of being the best in the world.  We need a new "Alberta Aspiration" to be the best for the world.

Preston Manning has a clear understanding of the situation in Alberta but his solution lens is too narrow.  There are other political options emerging to the Wildrose Alliance...like the Alberta Party.  There are other forums emerging beyond his Centre for Democracy for the Citizen's Assembly to occur...like a refocused Reboot Alberta to become a think-tank to offset the Libertarian harshness of the Fraser Institute and the Fundamentalist framing of the Manning Centre.

I have a lot of time for Preston Manning but like the rest of us, he is captive of his own history and experiences.  Don't be fooled by the limited options he presents...there are others. But do reflect on his analysis and ideas...that is the value he provides to the future focus of the Next Alberta.

Are Alberta's Politics Moving Past "Interesting" into Dangerous?

There is more and mounting evidence that regular Alberta citizens have to re-engage in the policy discussions and the political culture of our times and take back control of our democracy. The volatility on Alberta politics is increasing with recent developments. Things change pretty quickly in politics but until recently Alberta was the lethargic exception.

THE ACCIDENTAL PREMIER?
Premier Stelmach looked to some like he was the “accidental Premier” when he surprised everyone and won the Progressive Conservative Party leadership in 2006. He shocked us again when he won the election with a strong majority government when the mood in the province was for change. He then got a safe but not resounding endorsement for his leadership last November from the delegates at the PC Party AGM – and he promised change to respond to the undercurrents of anxiety in the PC and file from his weak public support being shown in the polls.

CHANGE BUT TOO LITTLE TOO LATE?
A quick shuffle on the Budget from the promised slash and burn approach to a more measured long term but big deficit budget to an even less significant Cabinet Shuffle and the promise of serious change went unfulfilled in the Party and public mind. But change happened anyway in the rise of the Wildrose Alliance Party’s narrow win of Calgary Glenmore’s by-election. Things got more volatile with the election of Danielle Smith as WAP leader. Then the biggie…the floor crossing of two PC MLAs, including a former Cabinet Minister, to the Wildrose Alliance.

There were rumours of another 8-10 PC MLAs ready to jump to the Wildrose but the Cabinet Shuffle Ascension of Ted Morton into the Finance and Enterprise portfolio seems to have at least delayed any more mutiny for now.

POLITICAL PARTIES ARE FRAGILE NOW TOO.
The political volatility is now showing up in the political party ranks. The Democratic Reform Movement efforts by some in the Liberal and NDP ranks pushing for some collaboration to stop vote splitting on the centre left is on-going. There is grumbling and anxiety in the Liberal caucus and the rank and file membership too. The NDP is small but the impact and influence of the labour movement on policy and internal politics is always on-going. The Green party imploded due to internal dissention and the Wildrose Alliance is going through senior level staff changes, as have the NDP and the PCs. The Wildrose is heading into an AGM in June that promises to be interesting and volatile too. The badly beaten but unbowed Social Conservatives in the WAP are seeking more policy power in the party notwithstanding, and perhaps because of how badly Smith beat them in the leadership race.

And now we have the next stage of political party volatility, the March 23 letter from the PC Party Highwood Constituency to the Premier and the Party President saying, amongst other things, they expect the Alberta electorate to show “no mercy…on Election Day.” OK so the locals are also ticked that their MLA was dumped from Cabinet and disrespectfully at that. But family members in the PC Party, or other parties, don’t usually send nasty complaint letters to the “Father” and the copy all the rest of the family. OUCH. But there is much more detail and opinions about specific complaints in the Highwood PC Constituency Board letter.

Full disclosure, last December 17th I announced that I would not be renewing my long held membership in the PC Party of Alberta and did a blog post on my reasons. Since then an amazing number of PC Party members said they would not stay active in the party either.

ALBERTANS HAVE TO TAKE CITIZENSHIP SERIOUSLY AGAIN
Our political institutions were designed for a time over a century old and they have not kept up to changes in culture, communications and complexity of the current and emerging world. I think they are serving to undermine citizen-based democracy which is itself an old but at least an evolving institution. Democracy has evolved or more to the point, democracy had “devolved” so now have 60% of eligible voters who see politics as so ugly and distant form them and their lives that can’t be bothered to vote in Alberta.

Citizens are not exercising their rights to choose representatives and grant their consent to be governed in a representative democracy at election time. Citizens are now abdicating their responsibility to be stewards of the common good by letting radical, reactionary and often fundamentalist fringe elements take over the power in declining political parties. Are any of us ready for the emergence of the Alberta equivalence of the Tea Party movement? If the social conservatives, lead by Ted Morton, don’t have their way with the Stelmach government will they bolt to the Wildrose at the strategic time in anticipation of the next election? What if the disgruntled social conservatives can’t take control the power structure of the Wildrose Alliance? I can see them all getting restless and deciding to split off and start reflect the radical and reactionary Republican sponsored Tea Party movement we see in the States now.

Will the renewal and refocus of the Alberta Party get some money, manpower and motivation to rise to the occasion and start to offer a philosophically progressive alternative in time?  Stating from a stand still may begin to make the Alberta Party look pretty good if all the conventional parties continue to be going in reverse.  That is no solution to the real problems we face with our democratic and political deficits in Alberta these days.  A more rational and responsible and comprehensive approach to reforming the Alberta poliltical culture must be taken  by someone and very soon.

REBOOT ALBERTA MAY HAVE TO STEP UP ITS GAME.
All this makes me reflect on just shows important the Reboot Alberta progressive citizen’s movement is going to be to the future of Alberta’s democracy. I guess we will have to pick up the pace, get focused and start getting activist and into some serious deliberative and deliberate democratic reforms and right away. There is a yearning for change by progressive Albertans but change to what for what, how and when are the open questions that need some serous attention.  We konw some of those answers form the recent survey done on progressive values of Albertans.  That may be the basis for us to start to change things in Alberta's politics an organized and effective fashion.

Don Braid on Decline of the PCs - He Gets It! Reboot Alberta Gathers Steam

In case you missed it, Don Braid's column in yesterday's Calgary Herald captures the essence of the erosion happening in and around the PC government in Alberta.  I appreciate his comments on my blog post about why I am leaving the Alberta PC Party

If the Wildrose is the viable option, we are in more trouble than we have already imagined.  We need a much different option to ensure we preserve, protect and progress in our Alberta.

Citizens are reclaiming responsiblity for how they are governed.  The growing interest in Reboot Alberta is proof of this re-emergence of informed and engaged citizenship.  I am working on my Reboot Alberta discussion paper on What is a Progressive in a 21st Century Alberta.  My theme is Citizenship=Stewardship.  I will post it here as well as on http://www.rebootalberta.org/

Is Alberta About to Enter an Empire of Illusion Stage Politically?

The speculation about the PC AGM party leadership review this Saturday is just another act in the on-going political power drama in Alberta these days. The flu fiasco is a much more critical concern for the population and the politics of the province.

That does not mean these matters are not related. They are just two issues on the minds of Albertans, including the economy, the environment and our democracy. Everything is attached to everything else in our complex inter-related and interdependent world these days.

PC Leadership Review:
It is hard to imagine that PC Leader Stelmach will not get at least 80% support from the party faithful this weekend. I say the party faithful because even if you are unhappy with the job the party leader is doing, he is still Premier of Alberta. And the primary purpose of a political party is to stay in power. Why would any of the delegates take the risk of opening up a bitter leadership fight? Better to get the leader to change than change the leader.

The PC Party is not the Same as Alberta:
The thinking members of the PC party appreciate that the people of Alberta are very unhappy with the Stelmach government. The new Environics poll in the CanWest papers today proves that in spades. The horserace part of media coverage is always the main focus. But it rarely reveals the real story.

So the Wildrose is #2 and closing in on Calgary. That’s not news. At best it is old news since the Calgary Glenmore by election. What does a Wildrose Alliance far right reactionary party holding the #2 spot mean for politics in Alberta? Is that the alternative most Albertans want? If not, then what? Where does all this leave the Liberals and NDs? That is the deeper news story.

Other Interesting Poll Results:
The poll raises some interesting concerns. Like why was there a 2 week data collection period? Very strange when one considers the impact of the emerging H1N1 story. It also makes you wonder how many calls were made to get 1000 Albertans to answer the poll. Some estimates say as many a 20 calls have to be placed before someone will answer a pollster. Makes you wonder about the true randomness doesn’t it? We don’t know much about the participants either but we presume they are properly demographically distributed not just geographically.

There are more interesting results in this poll than just the top line. Top issue for me is that the PC approval rating is at 36% - a 16 year low. With 54% of Albertans saying they disapprove of the government's performance. There is not much equivocation in opinions about the quality of our governance and leadership. I remember back in the day Don Getty had a personal approval rating of 17% - just before he retired. What is Premier Stelmach’s personal approval rating? We are not told. Hope it comes out in follow up stories. Please tell me that this question was asked.

The other interesting findings are the province wide 16% of undecided Albertans. That is as big as the Wildrose Alliance support in Edmonton. The tale of two cities is another interesting story. Calgary is used to having power, access and getting its way in the province, a holdover attitude from the Klein years. They continue to send a message of displeasure by parking support with the Wildrose Alliance. But do they truly believe in the WAP or just want to send a message the Premier. Or is this all about having a Calgarian in power, regardless of party? Too early to tell but that is an interesting unanswered question.

Edmonton is a much more interesting place politically these days with the PCs (34%) and Liberals (27%) statistically tied within the margin of error. The WAP is a distant 3rd and the NDP has their strongest showing in Edmonton at 13%. Are there are at least three solitudes emerging in Alberta these days? It sure looks like it. I think south, central and northern rural Alberta has some considerable differences too but the poll samples are too small to show them.

Another curious result is the Green support at 8% in the big cities and 9% in the rest of Alberta. That party does not even exist anymore but still can garner that kind of support. The Greens are equal to NDP in Calgary and beat them in the rest of Alberta. Ouch.

The Politics of the Poll:
The PC Party and the Premier’s office will see the timing of this CanWest sponsored poll coming out just before the leadership review on Saturday, as mischievous at best. Not that such manipulative and mischievous media messaging ever emanates from government. Remember the phony beach ads and the $25 million taxpayer paid slick ad campaign of the government to respond to dirty oil and the ugly Albertan? Whatever happened to that campaign?

This tradition of political and governance mis-messaging is exactly what will happen in coming weeks if the PC party leader gets over 80% support in the review process. The official line will be to ignore these poll results. They will say: Hey, we won the PC leadership when we were not supposed to. We won the election when we were not supposed to - and we got a larger majority too. Now we have the overwhelming endorsement of the party. There is a recession going on so what is the problem? The conclusion will be that there isn’t a problem. Things are just fine. The message will be that leader’s hand is on the rudder, the direction is clear and the government is on the right path. Steady as she goes and there is no need to change a thing. With that level of support they will promise to “stay the course.”

That attitude will likely be confirmation of an accelerated end of dominance of the Alberta PC political brand. Will it result in the demise of the dynasty that was created and nurtured by Peter Lougheed over 40 years ago?

“People who shut their eyes to reality simply invite their own destruction, and anyone who insists on remaining in a state of innocence long after that innocence is dead turns himself into a monster.”

That is a James Baldwin quote from “Empire of Illusion – the End of Literacy and the Triumph of Spectacle” by Pulitzer Prize Winner Chris Hedges.

Time will tell but will the clock be ticking for Premier Stelmach starting Saturday?

Alberta's Political Eyes Now Turn to PC Leadership Confidence Vote

I had a great conversation with Katherine O'Neill of the Globe and Mail yesterday on the Wildrose Alliance Party leadership and the pending Alberta Progressive Conservative Party Annual General Meeting leadership confidence vote for Premier Stelmach coming up November 7th.  Here is the link to the story in today's Globe and Mail.

I think the Alberta political media attention will shift now to the PC AGM leadership confidence vote but with the Danielle Smith WAP leadership lurking in the background.  The speculation will be rampant but pointless.  What is on the minds of the delegates and what do they see and the confidence vote "ballot question" is the real issue. 

There is a growing amount of grumbling in the PC rank and file these days.  It may be that I attract the griping because I speak out about political and governance concerns on this blog.  The big tent for fiscal conservatives and social progressives is wearing thin on both counts.  Walking away for $2B in royalties for no good reason other than to appease the Calgary based energy executive suites and at the same time to be calling for the same $2B in program cuts in the coming fiscal year captures the essence of why both elements in the PC Party are dissatisfied.

The Premier's political response to the embarrassing third place finish in the Calgary Glenmore by election was restricted to blaming the results on the bad economy and the rapidly expanded government program spending.  That presumption that the Stelmach government is not fiscally right-wing enough ignores the growing lack of confidence in the governance and leadership capacity of the current regime.  It also ignores the revenue problem caused by politically motivated giveaways and concessions to the energy sector with no positive economic upside for the provincial treasury and the Premier painting himself in a corner with a hasty announcement about not increasing taxes on his watch.

Now the cost-cutting strategy is to give token claw backs of the massive recent Cabinet pay increases as if that would provide some moral high ground to go to public sector workers to induce them to walk away from legally binding mutually agreed to collective bargaining agreements.  The not-for-profit community based service sector agencies doing the government's work in the volatile and vulnerable areas like seniors, children's service and the developmentally disabled are being penalized even more than the union based public sector workers.

Passing up non-renewable resource revenues in the face of market based commodity prices and putting the burden for that giveaway on the middle class and most vulnerable in our society is not good politics and even poorer governance.

Will this message come through loud and clear at the pending confidence vote at the November PC AGM?  My betting is not at all.  Even with all this crashing down on the shoulders of the provincial government and the downloading of the burden on municipalities, schools, hospitals, universities, community based not-for profit social service agencies, it will all be stifled and not talked about openly at the AGM. 

The first rule of old-school politics is to get re-elected and the next election is a long way off in political time.  There is a lot of water to go under the political bridge before Premier Stelmach has to face the people.  The "people" in the PC party know this.  The only thing that could cause Stelmach to face the citizens of Alberta earlier would be a low confidence vote in the party leader and Premier by the party faithful. That would trigger a PC leadership contest and with the party policy of one-membership one-vote process Albertans could destabilize the entire PC party tradition and structure.

The PC party faithful will stay "faithful" on November 7th if not to the leader at least to the PC brand.  To do anything else will only hurt the party, the province and destabilize provincial politics by unnecessarily increasing the already considerable instability and uncertainty of being Albertan.

IS KLEIN STILL BITTER-OR JUST STATING FACTS?

Former Premier Klein is on record with a Canadian Press story today saying if Premier Stelmach gets less than 70% support at the November 7 Progressive Conservative Party Leadership confidence review he should resign as Party Leader and therefor Premier.

If Premier Stelmach lacks the confidence of the PC Party delegates, Alberta could be into another leadership race early in the new year. I have commented on this in other posts that you can read here and here.

Mr. Klein was summarily dismissed by the PC Party in April 2006 when he lingered too long and the party faithful decided for him it was time for a change. That was after he he served leader of the party and the Province for 13 years. Klein may still be bitter but that is beside the point.

There are no laws or rules that dictate this situation but there are past experiences that set conventions. The conventional wisdom was set by Prime Minister Joe Clark in 1980. He was Prime Minister of Canada, leading a minority government that lost the confidence of the House on a Budget vote.

Clark put his party leadership on the line at a convention and got just under 70% support. He said that was not good enough and he resigned a party leader triggering a leadership review - which he lost to Brian Mulroney. Mulroney had been meeting secretly with supporters for months planning a coupe and a run at the party leadership just in such an event.

Conventional wisdom says anything under 70% support from party delegates and Premier Stelmach will need to resign and test his leadership with the entire PC Party and the people of Alberta with the one person - one vote leadership system the PC Party uses. Between 70 and 80% he will be seen as the walking wounded and can survive but with difficulty. Over 80% and he is safe.

The anxiety level is high going into the November 7th AGM confidence vote that some supporting MLAs to Premier Stelmach even suggested a show of hands confidence vote and not a secret ballot. Not a smart thing to do and it was quickly kiboshed.

The PC AGM vote is only one event creating growing uncertainty in the politics of the province. The first was the recent and devastating results of the Calgary Glenmore by-election. the next significant event will be the October 17th results of the Wildrose Alliance leadership. It will be important for three reasons, who wins, by what margin and what is the total voter turnout.

Then we have the PC AGM Leadership confidence vote on November 7th. The next serious leadership issue facing Premier Stelmach will be the Alberta consequences to the Copenhagen meetings on the world's reaction to climate change stating December 7th. The Alberta oilsands will be in the cross hairs of those global discussions and the consequences to Alberta will be a significant test of Premier Stelmach's leadership.

I have no prediction or insight as to what will happen in any of these pending events but Albertans better be aware of them because there is an incredible uncertainty about being Albertan these days.

Wildrose Alliance Invites Bloggers to Their Leadership Convention

My hat is off to Jane Morgan the Executive Director of the Wildrose Alliance Party of Alberta. I recently made a suggestion to her on Twitter that bloggers should be accredited media at their leadership convention in Edmonton on October 17, 2009. Almost immediately she responded - and favourably to the idea. OnTwitter she is @wildrosejane and I am @kenchapman46 if you want to follow us.


Her blog is "Up Close and Personal With Jane." Here is her recent blog post on the point and accepting the challenge. I am returning from out of the country the day before the event but I plan to be there and posting on my impressions from the floor of the WAP convention. I expect others more adept at social media than me will be live blogging the results in real time. There will be quite a few of us political bloggers who will take up the invitation and be posting from the floor of the convention.


Some tweets have expressed concern about allowing "overly partisan bloggers who are strong supporters of other parties" into the WAP convention. I understand the angst at one level but in reality, we will be blogging anyway. By not being there we will not have the advantage and responsibility of accountability that come with actually being there. The fact that bloggers of any and all stripes will be there in person will add authenticity and authority to the social media dialogue that will happen.


I also applaud Jane for also saying that no anonymous bloggers will be allowed. That will add to the accountability and responsibility of the bloggers who post about the WAP leadership. That does not mean blogger's nom-de-plumes can't be used, just that the real name of the blogger has to be published too. Putting the real name of registered bloggers on the WAP website would solve that identity and political perspective problem for readers. This way readers will be able to judge the content, context and credibility of the bloggers...critically important stuff in a vibrant dialogue on policy and politics in the province.


This initiative will be good for the credibility of the WAP. It frames them as an open and accountable party who are demonstrating a commitment to free speech and supporting serious citizen engagement in politics. They also get enormous amounts of free publicity and new media coverage that will be more fact based and biases (like mine) more exposed as well.


Now I wonder if my party, the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta will do the same thing at its November Annual General Meeting in Red Deer. That is when the party delegates will have a confidence vote on Premier Stelmach's leadership. Again the blogosphere and the social media will be alive with commentary in any event. It would be better if the citizen journalists who want to attend the AGM could do so and write their posts in real time from the actual event itself. But again lets not allow anonymous bloggers into the event and lets post the names and URLs of the registered bloggers on the Party website for all to see. Anonymous bloggers will still write stuff but readers can discount their commentary because they don't know if the source is informed and trustworthy.


Yes the bloggers at the PC Party AGM and the WAP Leadership Convention will be looking for interviews with party members and delegates in attendance. Yes they will be asking the key questions about perceptions of Premier Stelmach's performance as party leader and who should lead the WAP and why. Yes there will be biases in the blogging. But there will also be a wide array of bloggers and postings, not all of them supportive of the "host" political parties. That again is the essence of free speech, freedom of association and the price any political party should be prepared to pay as part of it role to promoting a dynamic, vibrant democracy in Alberta.


The old days of controlling the content, context and timing of political messaging is gone. Now it is about the Internet based conversation that happens within social, political, economic and environmental networks of concerned citizens. These exchanges of ideas and opinions are in the open, unfiltered and unmediated by traditional one-way messaging of the conventional news sources.

Political parties are pretty much private clubs, with too much power, in my humble opinion. Anyone can join but few do because they are seen by the general population as closed and constricting. To include and accept social media, and bloggers in particular, into the media mix of such political and partisan events will open them up to scrutiny and accountability but how can that be a bad thing for democracy?


So I applaud Jane Morgan and the Wildrose Alliance Party. Congratulations for having the courage and taking the initiative to be open and accountable as a political institution. Kudos too for being nimble enough to see and accept the new media reality of the 21st century. It can only be a good thing for your organization and for politics in Alberta.

Will the PC Party Pursue the Repeal of Bill 44 Opting-Out Provisions?

It is a dreary rainy Friday afternoon in Edmonton but a ray of public policy sunshine is coming through. Yesterday there was the start of a move within the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta to repeal the opting-out portions of what was Bill 44. It is now the Alberta Human Rights Act since Third Reading early Tuesday morning and it received Royal Assent on June 4th. It is not law until it is Proclaimed but that can happen at any Cabinet Meeting.

The political fallout of the Progressive Conservative government passing this ill-conceived poorly drafted and socially destructive law has not gone unnoticed, including by some other progressives in the Progressive Conservative Party - at least at the local constituency level. The Whitemud Constituency Executive are taking a recommendation to the Board in mid June seeking approval that they present a Resolution to the PC Party AGM in November to deal with the offensive provisions of Bill 44, now the Alberta Human Rights Act.

I understand the Resolution will be intended to deal with the parental opting out provisions of the Human Right Act that focus on education and teaching issues religion, human sexuality and sexual orientation. This Bill was a solution looking for a problem. The School Act had opting out provisions that worked well for 20 years. These options did not need to be expanded and extended into the Human Rights complaint and litigation process against teachers and school trustees. But the Stelmach government in its "wisdom" has done just that...and without any consultation or even advanced notice to anyone involved. Breathtakingly bad governance in a modern and mature representative democracy.

I was at the Edmonton Glenora PC Constituency meeting last night and they decided to do a Policy Resolution to the November AGM as well. I suggested a repeal of the opting out provisions. What will happen in Glenora is three proposed resolutions will be presented to the Board and the one receiving the most votes will go forward for consideration at the AGM. That will be an interesting exercise in local level political party democracy. I will keep you posted.

These Resolutions from the Progressive Conservative Party membership are not binding on the government. They are merely advice and input just like any other special interest group. Sometimes the advice is the result of a collective wisdom. Sometimes it is just pooled Ignorance. One thing for sure the Bill 44 fiasco has legs and it is not going away!

I ran into a former Party President at lunch who has been asked to supervise the PC Party Leadership Confidence vote at the November AGM too. This vote is a Party constitutional provision and happens after every election. It was how the PC Party dumped Premier Klein when he hung on too long after the 2004 election.

Bill 44 is far from over. The political fallout is just beginning to be felt. The Letters to the Editor in the newspapers and the editorial commentary is still coming in. The legal fallout will have to wait for the Human Rights Act to be Proclaimed and who knows when that will happen. Time for citizens, and especially political party members, to take back their political power and to once again participate in the public policy culture of their society.

Opting out of citizenship due to cynicism and skepticism is creating a "silent majority" in the minds of certain politicians. They are hiding behind this veneer of presumed public will and support for Bill 44 by presuming silence entitles them to legalize ignorance and intolerance around religion, human sexuality and sexual orientation.

The world is run by those who show up - not by those who opt out.

Stelmach Is Reviewing the Chandler Nomination...YES!!!

I am delighted to hear Premier Stelmach is reviewing the Craig Chandler nomination as a candidate for the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta – and that the criteria he is using is the Statement of Principles of the party. Media reports say Premier Stelmach will meet with the PC Party executive committee to discuss this matter very soon.

Good move Mr. Premier. Being leader of a political party and Premier of a province has overlapping elements but they are fundamentally two different things. Mr. Chandler's nomination is a constituency and party matter but it is up to the leader to accept him as a candidate.

The leader’s final decision on candidates reflects to citizens/voters what the PC party will accept as "tolerable" and that should not include intolerance. This decision by Ed Stelmach is sending a message to voters about the character of our political party and our fitness to govern.

I believe Mr. Chandler is inappropriate as a PC candidate and as an elected representative from the PC party given our pluralistic, secular, inclusive and diverse province. He has often expressed views that are very inconsistent with those Alberta values as well as the Statement of Principles of the PC Party of Alberta.

He seems to be more closely aligned with the new Wild Rose Party. They look like they could use his organizational talents as they chase enough signatures to qualify as a new provincial political party before the next election.

Mr. Chandler will undoubtedly respond and make arguments about respect for democracy and freedom of speech. But many of his past actions have been anything but respectful of those values. He has even been forced to publicly apologize for Human Rights abuses in the past.

Premier Stelmach is right. We Progressive Conservatives can’t tolerate intolerance – especially in our political representation. While the democratic process duly nominated Mr. Chandler in Calgary Egmont. A nomination decision is only a recommendation from a constituency to the party. It is not a final decision.

That final decision on the acceptability of a candidate is, and ought to be, with the leader who, after all, has to work with a group that becomes his team at the end of the day. The PC Party selects it leader on a one person one vote basis so we are assured the winner is the real choice of the party membership. Those votes are very personal and individual decisions – not based on some phoney delegated authority of special interests. Given that leadership selection process, Ed Stelmach, as our party leader, should be able to exercise his discretion in accepting or rejecting candidate nomination recommendations from constituency organizations.

By personally consulting with the party executive, Premier Stelmach has shown once again that he brings ability and wisdom to his position as party leader. Legally speaking, seeking advice from the party executive need not be done at all. There is a legislation that gives him a right, a party leader, to override the local nomination process. He can, by law, refuse to sign the papers that turns a nominee into a candidate.

I hope and expect the PC party executive will conclude that Mr. Chandler is not an acceptable candidate and they will support a move to reject his nomination in Calgary Egmont. Do not expect Mr. Chandler and his followers to go away quietly. It is not their style. I would not be surprised if legal actions were at least threatened by Mr. Chandler and his acolytes. But adherence to values of respect, inclusiveness and diversity should not be diminished by any such threats or intimidation tactics.