Albert'a Political Uncertainty Continues

First a disclaimer.  I don't think we can rely on "opinion" polls done through the Internet as being representative because they are not random and often "weighted" by taking a small response segment and over-valuing it in an attempt to be more reflective on the population distribution.

The result is not the best possible version of the "truth" but more likely a rather blatant misrepresentation of opinion.   The Mainstreet Research poll I am about to reference suffers from these shortcomings and even used the much discredited 2011 "Census" results as the basis for demographic weighting.  That said, what else did they have to "weigh" the demographics in their survey responses? Garbage in - Garbage out!

They used their proprietary Chimera IVR process to get responses. I still can't get the smile off my face. IRONY ALERT!   The Chimera origins are from an "imagery incongruous monster" from Greek mythology said to be a "fire-breathing she-monster with a lion's head, a goat's body, and a serpent's tail." Even the dictionary definition made me smile when applied to the reliability of such survey results; "a thing that is hoped or wished for but in fact is illusory or impossible to achieve."  Just like the reliability of the methodology of this "opinion" poll.

That said, presuming we can't rely on the findings there are some things of interest to be gleaned from these results.  Mostly what we seem to be able to say is that the political culture in Alberta is in an existential flux, especially regionally.

Edmonton is strongly NDP at 45%. The  Edmonton"progressives" seem to have left the Progressive Conservative party in and gone NDP or undecided at 16%. They have not moved to the Alberta Party or Liberal centrist options.   The conservative core in Edmonton at 21% has not seen a Jason Kenney leadership bump and actually dropped 1%.  The Wildrose base in Edmonton is static at 26% but in second place, which has to worry the big dark money behind the Kenney PC leadership.

Calgary Conservatives have seen themselves as the breeding ground for Premiers for sure in the PC dynasty.  It is not surprising that the core PC conservatives are big-time Calgary-based Kenney supporters at 38%.  What is more surprising is that NDP is number 2 at 26% and the WRP is 22%, worse than they do in Edmonton. The Alberta Party and Liberals have their largest support levels in Calgary too at 7% each. Note both party leaders come from Calgary.

The 'Rest of Alberta" a.k.a. "rural Alberta" is not in any existential flux.  They are solidly conservative with a 75% combined Kenney(27%)/Jean 48% support. It would be interesting to see if there is an urban-rural split in places like Grande Prairie, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Red Deer and Fort McMurray.

The aggregate Alberta numbers are pretty misleading as a result of these regional influences and the reality that all politics are local. They may also be misleading due to the "weighing" of results to try and reflect demographics.  For example, the 65+ age group is only 11%  of Alberta's population but makeup 14% in the sample size.

The survey has 33.5% participants in the 18-34 age group but Alberta has about 24% in the same grouping so they get significantly over-represented.  Note that 41% of 18-34 survey segment supported Brian Jean's WRP, 17% for Kenney Conservatives and 18% for Notley's NDP.  Likely another misleading result as a result.  Another misleading concern is the survey asks how you would vote for today, on a decided and leaning basis but has the Liberal option with David Swann as its leader.  He isn't the leader. They are in a leadership contest now.

The other interesting aspect is the Undecideds.  The largest segment is in Edmonton at 16% and the least is Calgary at 13%.  On the preference on who should be leading a merged PC and WRP it is overall uncertain.  First, the question is misleading because the parties can't merge legally.

The regional differences come into play.  Calgary is split equally between Kenney and Jean at 27%.  Edmonton and the Rest of Alberta favour Jean.  In Edmonton "Someone Else" beats both men at 26% and Unsure is at 32%.  Overall it is a 53% share for Kenney and Jean but 47% split between None of the Above or Unsure. Not a strong indication of interest in the future of the conservative political culture in Alberta, regardless of regions.

So while we can't rely on the science-based reliability of the results I think we can surmise that Alberta is not yet made up its mind nor set the direction of its political future.  It is not a clear choice between Left or Right.

The Next Alberta is more likely to be a centrist progressive government if the results of a 2009 real survey of political values based on the 2006 Long From reliable Census trend into the 2017 population.  That research found 63% of Albertans identified strongly with progressive values.  Fixing the vacuum of political options in the progressive political center in Alberta is where the potential is for real change in our political culture.

So far it is still an open question about who, if anyone, will fill that vacuum... effectively.

KEITH OLBERMANN ON TRUMP PANICKING

Keith Olbermann, formerly on NBC I believe, is doing an informative series of Video Blogs on Trump administration.

He is worth a watch...and a careful listen.  Even worth a YouTube subscription.

Interesting that Russia is the largest number of links to this blog since I started commenting more on Trump "foibles."  Proof the "bots" are "alive and well."

Does Donald Trump Know Anything About Public Policy?

David Pakman is a vlogger (video blogger for the uninitiated). He has a very interesting series of posts on the capacity of President Trump to actually do the job of President.

He runs some transcripts of answers to questions Trump at a newspaper editorial board.  It shows just how incapable President Trump is when it comes to dealing with complex issues.

Do you believe there is an issue about President Trump's capacity to actually focus on a question and provide a reasoned relevant answer?

Check this out!

Is There a Future for Progressive Politics in Alberta

There has been a recent takeover of the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta by the former Federal HarperCon Cabinet Minister, Jason Kenney and his social conservative base.  This has to be the final wake-up call for Alberta progressives.

The rise of an American-style Alt-Right and old-style Social Conservative political culture is now well established in Alberta with the Jason Kenney leadership of the PC Party.  What will the remaining progressives in the PCAA do now with the loss of the Lougheed heritage from their party?

We progressives are the largest block of voter values in Alberta.  We have taken a lot for granted.  We have been complacent, comfortable, and even compliant, to the threats from an obvious authoritarian and growing conservative political movement in Alberta.

Up to now, Alberta progressives have been a laid-back bunch politically.  We have been dozing passively to these emerging authoritarian conservative changes, living in denial that they are a real threat.  With each alarm bell, we have repeatedly pressed the snooze bar, rolled over and went back to sleep, blithely presuming Alberta will continue to be the dynamic progressive society we have known.

The "Unite the Right" conservative political movement has been instigated by the HarperCons Republican-lite acolytes, Jason Kenney and Brian Jean. They both have the single-minded goal of coalescing Alberta conservatives to beat Rachel Notley and her "socialist" government.

These Unite the Right leaders have offered very few specifics or policy ideas about how they would govern, should they form a government. They have generally articulated classic conservative bromides of reduced taxes, reduced government, reduced regulation, expanded individualism, deny climate change, privatize health care, public education and deference to market forces and competition as the only way to solve complex social problems.

There are some efforts afoot to enable progressives to respond to these threats to a dynamic, inclusive, caring, responsible and resilient Alberta. The reality is Alberta progressives have to get active in the political culture of the province...or suffer the consequences of political omission.

The present progressive political options to influence the future of Alberta are very fragmented and, so far, ineffectual.  To change this Alberta progressives can make a big difference by joining a progressive party and donate to that party of your choice.  The options are the Alberta Party, the Alberta Liberals, the NDP or the Alberta Greens.

There are a few progressives still in the Kenney PC Party who believe they can convince him to move from the far right, where he has been all his life, towards the political centre.  I don't see any evidence he intends to do anything meaningful to those ends.  Consequently, I would not recommend Alberta progressives join the PCAA as a means to make a difference.

If you can't bring yourself to join a political party, you can effectively engage as a progressive citizen through activism within your memberships in community, social, professional and other networks. There are progressive  Alberta-based organizations focused on influencing politics and public policy.  Alberta progressives should also consider joining and donating to organizations like Progress Alberta and Public Interest Alberta to make a difference.

It is time for Alberta progressives to wake-up, stand-up and step-up for the greater good and the betterment of our province.  More to come from me in this space, but now is the time for action people.

Trumpery* and Trumpism** are Coming to Alberta's Politics.

Gary Mason has some sobering and significant reflections on the rise of Alberta's own version of the alt-right...a.k.a. bigots, misogynists, and racists.

We are seeing these people being emboldened and potentially normalized - unless they are challenged and refuted and rejects as inimical to the dominant Alberta value set.

Nowhere is this more obvious than in the overwhelming increase of threats against Premier Notley.

It is worth noting that the majority of threats against Alberta Premiers were aimed at progressives, not Ralph Klein, a recognized conservative. This is an indication that the Alt-Right is prepared to be openly threatening.

As the Alberta conservatives, both Ultra and Alt types, plan to "unite" for the only stated purpose of defeating the Notley government, I expect we will see more of this aggressive and threatening behaviors long before we hear anything about social, environment or innovative economic policy positions.

For the rest of us, that means we can't be passive, indifferent, or event worse, tolerant, of any such inappropriate behavior.  That means we must become more politically aware and more informed citizens...and politically active.

More on becoming politically active as a progressive in Alberta in later posts.  In the meantime decide what if important to you, what you want to happen around those issues and what you are going to do to make those results happen.

Now, let's reflect on what Trumpery and Trumpism means.
    
*   TRUMPERY
** TRUMPISM

Middle Age Bulge: The problem with Trump

My friend Russell Thomas blogs as: Middle Age Bulge: The problem with Trump: The first month of the Trump administration has been nothing short of a train wreck, AND WORTH A READ.

Erosion of Trust in Institutions is a Danger to Democracy

The Edleman Trust Barometer for 2017 is very telling and the findings are most disturbing.  Richard Edleman, the President and CEO of Edleman opens the report, speaking of 2016, by saying "It has been a year of unimaginable upheaval."

His context is clear.  He notes incumbent or elected heads in 5 of the top 10 economies have been "deposed or defeated," including the U.S.A, U.K, Brazil, Italy and South Korea.  He goes further to note populists candidates are "leading or growing" in elections pending in France and Germany.

The 2017 version of the Edleman Trust Barometer found that 2/3 of the countries surveyed found under 50% of people a now "distrusters...in mainstream institutions of business, government, media and NGOs...to do what is right." This is put at the feet of "aftershocks from the stunning meltdown of the global economy" with "origins in the Great Recession of 2008."

Now `...only 15% of the general population believe the present systems is working, while 53% do not and 32% are uncertain.` This is fertile ground for populists movement to gain momentum based on fear for personal safety, a better life for one`s family, an erosion of social values, immigration and an accelerating pace of change.

The far left and far right are both rejecting globalization based free trade, fearing innovation as automation is replacing lower-skilled jobs, deregulation, centralization of power and wealth in elites and multinational corporations. More than 75% of the well informed and the general population both ``...agree the system is biased against regular people and favors the rich and powerful.  Even the best educated, best informed and best-paid citizens have lost faith in the system.

The loss of belief in leaders in government or business to affect meaningful change is greater than the erosion of the institutions they head.  Belief in the credibility of peers, folks like me, are equal to academics and technical experts, and far and away more credible than CEOs and government officials.

The mass population is 85% but on 45% of them trust their national institutions of government, business, media and NGOs.  In the mass population, a majority in 20 of the 28 countries surveyed distrust their institutions. The informed population is 15% of the total and 60%of then trust their national institutions.

This is not a sustainable set of circumstances for positive progress.  Incompetence, corruption and divided polarized hyper-partisan government are core beliefs of the majority of citizens. This can only lead to a massive collapse of societies, economies and democratic institutions if not corrected...and quickly!

TRUMP'S INTEGRITY QUESTIONED ON CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

Walter M. Straub Jr. is the Director of the U.S. Office of Government Ethics.  He delivered a fascinating dissertation on the situational ethics of President-Inept Donald Trump to the Brookings Institute today.

He noted his office negotiated with Secretary of State Nominee, Rex Tillerson the CEO of Exxon.  Straub says Tillerson is making a "clean break...forfeiting bonus payments worth millions...he's now free of financial conflicts of interest."

The Tillerson ethics agreement is said to "...serve as a sterling model for what we'd (the Office of Government Ethics) like to see with other nominees.  Straub goes on to say "We've has similar success with some of the President-elect's other intended nominees.  Some of them haven't quite gotten there yet,...."

Where Straub goes from there about Mr. Trump's situational ethics is most interesting.  This is the stuff that feeds a need for impeachment.  A President is not the same as a CEO of a private corporation.  Trump's less than half-hearted machinations on his tepid attempt to appear that he is inoculated from conflicts of interest, real and perceived are very disturbing.

I commend that you take the time to read this report by an independent public servant, and one who Trump can't fire or replace for the next two years at least.

Read more 

Canada Must Provide Collaborative Climate Change Leadership

The world has gotten smaller, more complex, on the whole, wealthier, with citizens having more opportunity to be informed, engaged and collaborative in the Internet Age.  This was enabling of globalization created more interdependency and, in some ways, the weakening of some national sovereignty.

Of course, the countervailing reality is wealth has concentrated at the top 1%, data is growing but information is being falsified, personal and institutional privacy is disappearing. Coping with complexity is beyond the capacity of our outdated institutions and status quo leaders.  Fear, xenophobia, authoritarianism, religious violence and religious governance are on the rise.

Collaboration is becoming more difficult as institutional and personal trust is in rapid decline.  The countervail to this decline is the amazing cooperative spirit extant at the national, institutional, business, institutional and community levels on the climate change challenge.

The extreme hyper-partisan points of view on the left and right are well represented.  They are superficially articulated in extensively covered the conventional media info-tainment approach to what is "news" or "news-worthy."

Moderate, thoughtful, open-minded, inclusive, caring empathetic citizens don't believe in the extremes.  However, these folks don't yet have reliable, authentic thought-leaders to bring forth some practical reality and workable solutions to the economic, environmental, social, and governance options to the challenges we face.

There obviously needs to be some perspective brought to bear by civic and political leaders.  We need leaders to provide a compelling vision that will connect with the big value drivers of change in ways that connects with citizens' concerns in their daily lives.

I believe that set of big and personal connecting value drivers will become around various applied and practical economic and social responses towards the climate change challenges.

Carbon tax policy, technology, and innovation supports, along with carrot incentives and stick disincentive policy options are going to be key.  These instruments will influence personal behaviors in the way we behave and will bring out a positive personal perspective going forward.

As Ian Goldin and Chris Kutarna say in their new book Age of Discovery

Perspective is what enables each of us to transform the sum of our days into an epic journey.  And it`s what imporves our chances of together makng the twenty-first century huimanity`s best.

They make the case for hope and determination for us as a species. For humanity, there is good news and there is bad news.  The good news is there is hope for us because we have been through such amazing changes before.  That was during the Renaissance.  We can learn from that past.

The bad news is we have to be determined to change our ways...because, as they say,  this new golden age will not simply arrive, we have to achieve it.  In that spirit let me refer you to a recent Op-Ed in the Globe and Mail by Thomas Homer-Dixon.  He says when it comes to climate change Canada must not give up the fight.

My takeaway from Homer-Dixon is hope is not a method and determination is not a vision.  But Canadian values are strong and our country is coherent and capable enough to be leading on climate change.

We Canadians, and especdially Albertans, can be the people who are providing perspectives, solutions and practical approaches to dealing with climate change.  We can be the people with the determination, dedication, and ability to anticipate, prevent, detect and correct ignorance and error when it comes to dealing with the consequences of climate change.

What do you think?  Please comment on the blog to aid the conversation.

The Reign of Trumpism

We are all in for some very trying times in the Trump Era...more accurately described as the "Trump Error."

There are the obvious pitfalls of the man's inadequacies, ignorances, arrogances, and ineptitudes as a person, politician and even as a businessman.

Trump's narcissistic personality disorder and megalomania are very well exposed and documented.  The mainstream media is yet to pursue this mental-health aspect of  President-Elect (a.k.a. President- Inept) Trump.

The revolution that is Trumpism is a "truth" and like Schopenhauer said:

 "All truth passes through three stages:"

First, it is ridiculed.  Remember all the pundits and politicos saying Trump was a joke candidate? Watch is real satire from 1988 and reflect on the parallels Pat Paulsen has to Trump and his approach to politics.

Second, it is violently opposed. That is where we are today as Trump has ruminated (look it up Donald) about running for President.  Now he is having anyone with significance as to will participate and perform in his Inauguration. The opposition to Trump is well documented in other more significant terms.

Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.  That is the option before us, not just in the US of A but the rest of modern democracy.  And that is the challenge before us.  Here is a Canadian context of Trumpism from the Editorial realms of the Globe and Mail. 

We can't be sanguine about this infecting the institutions of and in our Canada. We still have the ghost of Harper cum Bush policies lingering in our politics.  We have Trumpism "karaoke" candidates running for the Conservative Party of Canada.  We have a Harper "mini-me" in the form of Jason Kenney also channeling for Trumpism in Albert's politics.

We must resist, oppose and rejuvenate inclusive, caring, progressive values into updating our institutions as a way forward for a truly Canadian political culture in the face and threat of Trumpism coming to our country.

Merry Christmas and some Musings

It has been a long time since I posted anything on this old blog.  Thinking I might revive it again given the changing political scene in Alberta, Canada and the United States.

This was a very opinionated blog and why not?

There is a new year coming and a new world order emerging.  VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) is the new normal in the economy, the society and the environment.

Progressives in Alberta have been complacent, arrogant, out of touch and too often compliant with conventional authority and self-serving institutions.  That is until the last election.

The same thing has happened in the USA but with very different results.  Albertans elected a social democratic majority government.  The American elected a rabid cum fascist President and gave him effective control and personal power over most of its levers...including the Supreme Court.

So on this interlude on Christmas Day 2016, this is what I'm thinking,  Not sure I will do anything about it yet.  Time will tell.

Laurie Blakeman & Her Post-Conventional Party Politics

The past is littered with examples inability for Alberta's progressive political parties to individually mount an effective alternative to the ruling Conservative dynasty.

Laurie Blakeman, as Alberta's longest serving MLA, has seen a lot of changes.  She recognizes the political status quo for progressives will only preserve the power-based status quo for Conservatives. She is now walking her talk about changing the attitudes of establishment progressive partisans.

The October 2014 by-elections were very telling.  By-elections are usually opportunities to send the sitting government a message of discontent. There was plenty of discontent with the Conservatives.  Prentice still won all four seats, three in Calgary and one in Edmonton.

While Prentice won his own seat handily there were some interesting but still unsuccessful challengers in other ridings.  That said, there are no silver medals in politics.

The Wildrose did very poorly given the funds it spent, its strong Calgary presence and a star candidate. The Wildrose leader and most others crossed the floor o the Prentice Conservatives in a surprising and conniving move.

The NDP had its leadership contest during the by-elections thanks to Prentice high-handed political approaches.  They had no traction in Calgary but had a good second place showing in Edmonton Whitemud.

The Liberals did poorly all over coming in 4th and splitting the vote in Calgary Elbow. That Liberal vote split arguably elected a religious SoCon Conservative candidate over the strong second place showing of the Alberta Party leader.

The Liberal Party leader resigned shortly after the by-elections.  Blakeman offered to be an interim leader on conditions that she be authorized to engage in talks with the Alberta Party around cooperation and possible merger.

She failed to convince her Liberal Party Board to go that route. The Liberals selected David Swann as interim leaders.  He is a well regarded former leader who resigned upon realizing that he could not move Alberta Liberals forward.

Conversations between Blakeman and the Alberta Party continued with the Greens added. What emerged was that Blakeman's candidacy in Edmonton Centre would not be contested by the Alberta Party or the Greens.

They would do more than endorse her.  The Greens and Alberta Party actually nominated her as their own candidate in the same constituency. While she is officially a Liberal on the ballot, all her campaign materials will carry the logos and messages of all three cooperating progressive parties.

The NDP will have nothing to do with this approach.  They believe that they are the true progressive alternative for Albertans and in 2015 their time has come.  With their new leader they promise to run a full slate of 87 candidates.  That will be true I expect, even if many are parachuted in and merely filed as "paper candidates" with no hope of winning nor with any real connection to local constituencies.

So what does this innovative Blakeman three-way candidacy mean?  Ideally it's the triumph of a commitment to shared progressive values over individual partisan brand loyalty.  Perhaps it demonstrates that progressive Albertans can co-create a new political space.  That they can move towards becoming a viable alternative citizen-based political movement aspiring beyond Official Opposition status.

Progressives gathered together before when they realized the threat of the Wildrose in the last Alberta election.  They showed up strategically on election day rallying behind Premier Redford, whom they mistakenly believed to be an authentic progressive.

Progressives will show up to oppose a common enemy.  Perhaps we have a new common enemy in the Prentice Conservatives.  The success of the citizens-based political movement over allowing Gay-Straight Alliances (GSAs) in Alberta schools is a case in point.  This initiative was started and sustained by Liberals Kent Hehr and Laurie Blakeman through Private Members Bills. It received emboldened support from all progressive parties and many community groups.

There was a  public outcry over the Prentice Conservatives bullying procedural tactics used to kill the Blakeman GSA Bill 202.  The back-of-the-napkin ineffectual and offensive replacement government Bill 10 was soon "paused" for more public "consultation." The sustained opposition kept the issue alive over the Christmas break.

Prentice, as his first action when the Legislature resumed,, was to present and pass a new more acceptable Bill 10, very akin to the original Blakeman Bill 202.   A clear progressive citizen-based political victory.

Redford was run out of office by the Conservative Caucus.  Prentice was elected as the "new management" leader under a cloud of a suspicion over electronic voting and other irregularities.

Prentice is proving to be a Harper-like politician with a Klein inspired short-sighted economic agenda of brutal cuts to public spending.  Is it possible that a combination Harper/Klein Conservative government philosophy that only wants to cut government spending not increase revenues will reawaken passive progressives?

Could the Blakeman/Alberta Party/Green creative candidacy approach be the beginning of a progressive political coalition? Could this meeting of progressive leadership minds show the way forward for a merger of the Liberals, Alberta Party and Greens? Who knows.

The well known truth is that the current approach of the traditional progressive parties is not working. If we want to change the government, we progressives will have to change ourselves first. I now see some hope of that happening.....on both counts.

2015: The Year for Acting Politically

Here is a draft of a piece I did emerging from my guest spot at the Summer Conference for the Alberta Teachers Association.  I am often invited to attend ATA events as a "friendly critic and critical friend of the ATA" as a former President likes to call me.

Summer Conference includes the ATA leadership cohort from across the province.  They looked collectively into their professional and political role in Alberta's public education policy going forward.

This "post" was inspired from the ATA event last August.  That was in the heat of the PC leadership process and just before the oil price changes gathered momentum.  You will see from the content it was written after the October by-elections.

2015: THE YEAR FOR ACTING POLITICALLY

Politics was a key message this year for ATA Summer Conference participants. Politics pervaded the Conference program. PC Leadership candidates were invited to attend and speak but Thomas Lukaszuk was the only one to show up. Opposition Education Critics all attended, spoke civilly and shared insights on their approaches to education policy.  

I got to “interview” Lukaszuk and moderate the Opposition Critic panel.  I also got to observe and add commentary in Political Engagement sessions.  As a result I learned a lot about the political positioning and thinking of the ATA.  I got to listen to those members charged with bringing the voice of teachers into the complex public policy process of the province.

My special privilege was when I was asked to make some wrap up comments at the end of the Conference.  My closing comments were based on Martin Luther King’s speech on Power and Love.  He said power without love is reckless and abusive. Love without power is sentimental and anemic. King’s conclusion was that we need power and love not power or love.

Since the Summer Conference, there have been lots of political power plays in Alberta.  The PCs have selected a new leader.  There was a significantly diminished level of citizen participation than in previous contests.  There was a serious controversy over electronic voting irregularities.  Then there were accusations of ethical lapses by the winning candidate over giving “free” memberships, paid for by others.

The “new management” leader selected a Cabinet that had unelected and controversial Ministers in the key portfolios of Health and Education.  This exercise in political power caused two additional, costly but interesting by-elections.

More power based politics emerged in one of the by-elections.  Ethical breach allegations of conflict of interest were formally filed against the appointed Minister of Education.  The Alberta Party and Wildrose both accused him of conflict of interest by using his Ministerial power for private benefit during his election campaign.

Robocall tactics came from federal politics and to the Alberta by-elections.  This time, anonymous social conservatives targeted robocalls at Wildrose supporters in all by-election campaigns.  Their message belittled the Wildrose party leader’s values for pursuing moderate policies on sexual preference issues.  

In politics, power is often applied in ways that is reckless and abusive.  And when it comes to the values of many care givers, including educators, the love they have for their work is embraced as a calling.  So they are often seen, and even become, sentimental and anemic…and therefore ineffectual in getting what they needed for themselves and those in their charge.

The repulsion of power politics coupled with a genuine love of their work (aka their "calling"), educators often get badly treated by the dynamics of politics. They tend to get abused in the power-based public policy development and deployment process.

My closing message to teachers was to stay professional but also to dust off their citizenship duties.  Get informed, get engaged, then get on with politically active citizenship. Start making a real difference on issues that are important to you.

Being a professional in a publicly funded education system puts some legitimate limits on advocacy activities.  But citizenship is a justifiable distinction and a strong basis for individual advocacy and values-based activism.

I suggested teachers, acting as citizens, have a lot to offer our declining democracy.  They have special training and skills that can help others understand and interpret information (aka seeing and understanding propaganda).  They have analytic abilities and high degrees of literacy that can help marginalized groups access and understand politics and political messaging.

My engagement plea was for teachers to join a political party and volunteer to help a candidate in an election campaign.  If you want to have real influence the leverage of your time is via political partisanship.  Access to power is easier and only 2% of Canadians belong to parties so the "power" is significant.

You don’t have to subsume your values to the party ideology but research which party is closest to your values.  Great parties encourage and enable active dialogue on values.  This is because good political parties recognize political decisions are values trade-offs.  Policy design and political priorities are, at their essence, moral choices.

Democracy necessitates a dynamic diverse dialogue and an informed debate served by a wise set of elected and listening decision makers.  None of that happens without engaged citizens who want to synergize Power and Love.

When you reflect on the potential of a progressive values-based society like I just described, it occurs to me that I have also just described a very good school.
Yes teachers, as citizens, have a lot of skills, talents and qualities to help integrate the concepts of power and love.

Our democracy and our society needs great classroom teachers but that does not mean they can't  also become active and effective citizens outside of school.  that said, 2015 is indeed the year for educators to begin acting politically - especially if there is a snap election coming.

Does Jim Prentice Need a New Mandate?

The spring 2015 election rumours are rampant amongst the chattering class in Alberta politics.  Of course all the reasons given to go early are pure politics and nothing to do with good governance.

Some reasons for an early election, instead of honouring the legislated fixed election date, is the "new management" under the new Premier needs his own mandate from Albertans.

Other reasons are the oil price decline needs Albertans to go to the polls to provide Prentice with the power to make the "tough choices" (a.k.a. draconian cuts) about programs and to keep taxes low.

Finally I believe the new Premier wants an election to enable him to clean house and get rid of the remaining progressives in his caucus. An election is the fastest way to do that by culling the herd.

A New Man Needs a New Mandate:
Why a new mandate?  Prentice won the PC leadership and consequentially became Premier of all Alberta.  He ran in the context of a very recent ( April 2012) and successful Redford election with a majority government.

He also knowingly inherited the fixed election date period of March 1-May 31 in every fourth calendar year of office.

The PCs have a clear mandate and a majority government elected less than two years before they decided to dump Redford. He inherited a 66 seat majority government elected with 44% of the vote that crushed the WRP momentum.

His own leadership win was "decisive" with 17,963 of the 23,386 of memberships counted.  We know more memberships were sold or given away by the Prentice campaign so there is a cloud over his "win." Not all eligible members were able to vote due to serious and suspicious electronic voting irregularities.

As for the PC Party mandate, Prentice has (or at least had until recently) the overwhelming support of the party executive, the caucus and the party establishment.  The PC caucus members were almost unanimous in their support for Prentice as leader.    

Alberta citizens were able to participate in this leadership selection by simply buying a PC membership (or getting a free one from Prentice's campaign) and voting for any one of three candidates.  

The fact that the general population overwhelmingly choose not to participate in this PC selection process, compared to previous contests, can be seen as indifference to the outcome. It could be seen as a general public acceptance that any of candidates offered could continue governing the province for the rest of the legislated mandate.

What if the low participation rate is because Albertans stayed away from the PC  selection process in protest? Even that clearly means they were prepared to accept the winner as their Premier in the context of the PC 2102 campaign platform and election victory.  

Then consider the dramatic shift in the polling results away from the Wildrose to the PCs since Prentice's victory in September 2014.  This shows Albertans now support his Premiership over the WRP regardless of the Redford legacy.

His recent polling results are at least as good, if not better, than the Redford 44% election support in 2012.  Again evidence that Albertan's do not see the need for a "new mandate" for the "new management" Premier. "He's da man!"

Budget Pressures Due to Oil Prices:
This is hardly a reason for a general election.  In fact it is just the opposite.  We need certainty in governance and leadership in such volatile economic times.  Oil prices started dropping in June of last year, when Prentice was announcing his candidacy.  They became more significant starting in September, when Prentice was selected PC leader.  It is not as if he didn't see this coming.

Prentice is not a new kid on the political block.  He is an experienced and seasoned politician, elected federally in June 2004 until November 2010 when he mysteriously resigned the Harper government.

In that time he served as Harper's Minister of Indian Affairs and Northern Development, Minister of Industry and Minister of the Environment. All vital portfolios and significant experience for dealing with Alberta's policy choices and fiscal plight in the light of falling oil prices.  We don't need him to win an election to prove is political bona fides.

Again his leadership success on October 27th by winning all four by-elections shows Albertans are not ready to dump him or even send him a discouraging word about his leadership...at least not so far.

We need certainty in provincial leadership and management to deal with the pending budget issues.  This is not new to Alberta or Albertans, notwithstanding Prentice's hyperbole to the contrary about the fiscal issues.  We have been down this road before.

Hopefully with Prentice's experience, and others in the recent PC political past, we can avoid making the same policy mistakes of previous resource revenue downturns. Time will tell but in any event oil price volatility is not a reason for an early general election.  

Prentice's Purge of the Progressives:
Prentice has taken the PC party significantly to the right in the political spectrum. This is especially evident with the floor crossing of the majority of the Wildrose caucus.  He has been described by Danielle Smith, the former Wildrose leader and floor-crosser, as the "first Wildrose Premier."  How much more proof do you need of his shift to the right?

The "retirement" of progressives like Hancock and Hughes was allegedly for being too close to Redford.  The demotion of people like Lukaszuk and Griffiths plus the announced retirement of Pastoor, (with others to come?) it is pretty clear the "P" in the PC party is being systemically removed by Prentice.

An early election gives Prentice a way to tell remaining progressives there is no future for them in his government,  He can also give the WRP crossers the chance to try and win nominations as Prentice Conservatives before other inside progressive candidates can get organized.

The other pure political reason for an early election is to kill the rest of the WRP as a political force.  They would not have time to select a new leader with an early election call, in fact may be trying to select a leader in the middle of an election.

That is Harper-esque politics at its lowest.  It is sadly ironic for the WRP to be subjected to such tactics given the past support the enjoyed from the Harper caucus members. The death of the current WRP would be the culmination of Prentice becoming the de facto WRP hard-right Premier of the province.

Change to a Progressive Political Culture:
The centrist Alberta Party, the centre-left Liberals with the leftist NDP do not have the funds or other resources to mount a strong offence against Prentice in the short term. The non-aligned progressives who voted Redford in fear of the WRP are in a dilemma.  The Prentice PCs are clearly no longer destined to be a big-tent party that includes progressives.

The Liberals and NDP are not a preferred progressive alternative choice or they would have done better in the 2012 election and in the October by-elections. The NDP is an Edmonton-based party and the Liberals are in serious internal decline loosing 3 seats in 2012 and with 2 of the current MLAs leaving for federal politics in the next election this year.

The Alberta Party showed they can campaign and do well in the Calgary Elbow by-election coming in a strong second.  However there are no silver medals in politics.  They have a lot of organizing and fund raising to do to be a contender but they are making progress on both fronts.

However, given Prentice is not going to lose the next election, the Alberta Party is a smart parking place for a progressive protest vote against the Prentice Conservatives. Full disclosure: I am on the Provincial Board of the Alberta Party.

What will happen about an early election call is anyone's guess, including Prentice, who says he is keeping the option open. To go early would require the Lt. Gov to call it or for Prentice to call the Legislature back and amend or repeal the fixed election dates law. Integrity, accountability and transparency would suggest the latter course is the better approach, but again, who knows and does Prentice really care about those political values?  

If we do have an early election it will be for purely partisan political reasons and not sound public policy purposes.  Hopefully progressive Albertans will take such self-serving partisanship seriously and judge the "Wildrose Premier" accordingly.

The best way to show displeasure for Prentice opportunism in making such a partisan anti-democratic early election decision is to get out and vote for a new progressive movement.

To my mind that is the Alberta Party.  While it is new it is young, energetic and full of  new ideas and public-interest thinkers.  With proper support, it would legitimately aspire beyond becoming a replacement opposition.  It could and should aspire to become a progressive party capable of offering a viable alternative the first "WRP Premier" approach to the governance of the province.

Time will tell if any of that happens too...but in the true spirit of Don Quixote, I remain faithful to an Alberta Aspiration that is hopeful for her progressive future.

Harper After New Victims

So Eve Adams and Dimiti Soudas are the new "power couple" about to be dropped from the Christmas card list of Prime Minister Harper.

Shades of Helena Gerugis and Rahim Jaffer?

Nasty nasty stuff Mr Prime Minister,  Why are Pierre Poilivere and Rob Anders are still amongst the anointed ones?

Seems like the Harper Cons are falling apart. I expect more retirements and a lot of runaway Harper Con staffers rushing into the bosom of the Wildrose Party in Alberta.

Jim Dinning Releases a Can of Whoop-Ass on PC Party

Wake Up Call is the polite way to describe Jim Dinning's "admonitions" to the elite in the Progressive Conservative Party.

To my mind he is right on in his comments.  The next leader may end up being the Harry Strom equivalent of the PC Party.  Mr Strom was the Social Credit leader at the time when Peter Lougheed captured the new mood of a young Alberta and swept into office in 1971.  I was there and a door-knocker, phone-caller, foot soldier type for the emerging Lougheed government in those days.

Now I smell the democracy of dramatic change in the air again.  The problem is the lack of acceptable choices.  Citizens of Alberta are almost universally disgusted with the PCs.  Most of us are terrified of what the Wildrose would do to Alberta, especially after seeing what their soul mates the Harper Conservatives have done to Canada.

As for the Liberal, they are just too boring to get behind and they seem like a one-man show.  The NDP have been effective opposition parliamentarians but seem just too biased and ideologically focused to grasp the complexity of the next Alberta.

The next Alberta government has to have a servant leader culture capable of governing an comprehensive integrated balance of a prosperous economy, environmental stewardship and social well-being and inclusion in the face of rapid growth and change.

There is god news and bad news for Albertans as they choose their next government, not just the next leader of the PC Party who gets the job temporarily and by default.  The good news is we have a prosperous foreseeable future with some bumps on the way no doubt.  The bad news is that it will not happen by any autopilot public policy approaches.  We will have to create that future ourselves.

Time is now for Albertans to pay attention and take stock of where we are, where we want to go and what it will take from all of use to make the changes needed to get there.  

That still does not answer the question of what are the political options out there for us if not the current crop?  I think the bad news is, it currently does not exist so, once again, just like Peter Lougheed did in the late 1960s early 70s, we have to create the option we want.

For me that is a socially progressive fiscally prudent and environmentally engaged political movement of citizens.  We need a movement of citizens to get behind a group of their fellow citizens who want to serve the public interest through the greater good...with a long term view and not just helping those on "their side" and only up to the next election.

There is the embryo of such a movement as that now in the Alberta Party. Small but serious and all of a sudden growing leaps and bounds as Albertans have started thinking about the real changes they want.  So if you are curious as to if the Alberta Party is for you, and you for it, click on Politicalmatch and take five minutes to check it out. I think you will be glad you did.

Is the Alberta Party Getting Cred?

The Globe and Mail Gary Mason recently wrote an insightful piece on the possibility of enhanced political fortunes of the Alberta Party.  With the shifting attitudes of Albertans of ennui, uncertainty and distrust of the establishment political parties with a well founded fear of the socially conservative Wildrose.  People are looking for an alternative preferred future.

The Alberta Party is becoming just that preferred alternative for socially progressives and fiscally prudent citizens who are looking for some fresh ideas and renewed energy to change the political culture of the province.

Young, informed engaged citizens who want a different future for themselves and future generations are leading this values based political shift. Progress in Alberta for these folks must be more responsible and sustainable than the current offerings of the established left-versus-right hyper-partisanship inherent in the current politics of the province.

With the PCs in a leadership campaign, it is a good time to think about what kind of Alberta you want and what you intend to do to achieve it. There will be lots of change talk in the next 4 to 6 months.  There always is in political campaign, including leadership races.

Can real change happen in ways we want and need to at least restore a civil polity that is focused on public interest not just winning or preserving political power.  Can we trust the current governing party and the wannabe opposition parties to create a truly caring, capable and statesmanship approach to governing?

Must we settle for the Wildrose, the so-called "only viable alternative" in an extremely socially conservative, government killing, narrow-minded Alberta version of the American Republicans?

It's time for change and change is in the air. It will not happen by accident.  It must be created by citizens who get engaged, get informed and get clarity about what they want from government and governance.  I think it's time to create a viable refreshing and authentically progressive political alternative to all the current batch of status quo parties.

For me that means its time to give the Alberta Party a chance to change things for a positive and progressive Alberta for all of us.

If you are interested in a discussion on the issues and values around what Alberta could and should look for in political leadership check out my other blog at www.oilsandsken.com

Dave Hancock: A Good Man Who Comes to the Aid of the Party

Dave Hancock was recently selected by the PC Caucus to be the interim leader of the party pending the outcome of the forthcoming leadership contest.  This may be the smartest thing they have done in the past week or so.

Dave is Mr. Social Progressive & Fiscal Conservative amongst Alberta's elected politicians. He has been involved in the party from his youth at the University of Alberta.  I met him first when we both worked on the Joe Clark leadership of the federal PC in 1976.  He served as President as established the Statement of Principles for the party that defined the progressive aspects of the PC party.

Elected initially in 1997 he has been a perpetually successful election performer often winning with the largest margins in the province. He has served in a wide array of portfolios and been Deputy Premier more than once. He has been the deep thinker and strategy guy in the PC caucus and Cabinet for years.  A cerebral quality not often appreciated or respected by the Reform/Alliance leaning "common sense" MLAs.

He pursued the leadership in 2006 when Dinning and Morton were beat by Stelmach. I was very involved in his campaign helping to develop the campaign platform with him and others. Knowing he would not make the first ballot cut he chose to visibly support Stelmach before the first votes were counted.  Many think that move was politically courageous.  It was but it was also a strong signal to his supporters and others in the progressive branch of the party they ought to rally behind Stelmach.  Dave correctly saw Stelmach as the best way to update the progressive policies of the party beyond the Klein years.  It worked...for awhile.

Dave's diligence and dedication will ensure the business of government keeps going aligned with the PC party agenda set out in the recent Throne Speech and Budget.  The administration will be given the respect and room to do their jobs, at least until the next leader comes in.  I expect under Dave's interim watch there will be some significant but quiet execution of the policy and programs that have been passed but also passed over pending for implementation.  I say this given his strong affirmation that Bill 45 and 46 are the "law" and they will be implemented. It is a double-edged sword for progressives.

So don't expect flash and dash from Dave.  Do expect a steady hand on the tiller and a mature respect for the caucus and Cabinet members who are still around to govern given the leadership campaign activities that will distract them.

He can't stop the internal caucus dissent, that is not his job.  He will also have to deftly handle the natural divisiveness inherent in the thrust and parry of the leadership race.  He will run the province professionally while the party participants are away campaigning and hoping to find a suitable leader to appeal to the rest of Alberta.

This must be a moment of pride and humility for Dave as he get the trust and respect of the Caucus and the PC Party as interim leader.  It also has to be bittersweet as he serves as the bridesmaid and not not as the bride.  Such is life.  Such is politics.  Such is democracy.

Parsing a "Poll" in Alberta' s Leadership Politics

So Angus Reid did a poll on Alberta political leadership issues that they released on March 17/14.  It was a on-line poll done March 3-9 using 698 of the Angus Reid Forum panelists. Those are people who like to answer polls and signed up to be on the Angus Reid roster for such polls.

I am always suspicious that these self-selecting Forum volunteers  are more politically active and engaged and not so random.  The methodology likely make extrapolations of under represented groups based on the results of small numbers of participants in various segments.

Say 30% of the Alberta population is male over 55. I don't know if that is true but humour me.  If the on line pool only had 10% of respondents in that group I wonder if the pollster takes the answers of the 10% and triples their weight to reach the real demographic mix.  If so it it almost guaranteed to be wrong. A chronic reality for political polling for a few years now...increasingly wrong.

That said, I don't trust theses polls for that and other reasons.  For example Angus Reid said 46% of decided voters in Alberta would choose Wildrose if an election was called the next day.  Well the election is two years away so why is that relevant never mind reliable as a serious question.

Second I wonder how they voted last time and if they are shifting their votes and why!  I expect a lot of former/current PC supporters, inside and outside the party, wanted to send Premier Redford a message by "choosing" Wildrose.  If that was the case it worked.  Redford resigned shortly afterwards.

Third is, presuming the poll has some veracity, there is a real social schism on age and gender lines in Alberta when it comes to politics.  The Wildrose support is predominantly male and older.  50% of males in the survey supported WRP and 41% of the females.  the older you were the more you supported the WRP. The PCs support was small, half that of WRP but evenly spread over genders and generations. Liberal and NDP support is greatest in youth and still behind the WRP.

Here is where gender and generational divides gets somewhat interesting.  Health Care is #1 (21%), Leadership & Economy tied for #2 as most important issues (17%) and Environment is next with 9% picking it as most important.   Old people art into health (go figure!) and leadership.  Only 6% of youth said Leadership is most important issue in Alberta today but they were the largest group to say the Economy is their issue followed by the Environment.  The Environment was top issue for only 6% of men 35-54 and only 4% of the 55+ makes gave it a concern.

More women were concerned about Health Care than men and more men were concerned about Leadership and the Economy than women.

Since Redford has left the stage, here is a bit of thought on useless polling information, namely who would make the best Premier,  WRP Smith was at 32% the Libs and Dipper leaders 8% each and Redford at a mere 11% support.  What is interesting i sthe Undecideds and None of the Above answers at 42%, mostly (28%) not sure.  That means 4 out of 10 Albertans are rejecting or reserving opinion who of the currnet crowd would be the best leader.  46% of females feel this way and half of the 18-34 demographic dont know or don't care about the qualities of current political leaders.

On the dealing with the Economy 47% of women and 41% of youth say none of the current leaders cut it. Concerning the Environment 51% of women and 46% of youth reject the current crop of political leadership. Heath Care as a concern sees 42% of women and 35% of youth lacking confidence in current regimes.

Who ever gets Alberta's women and youth on their side and manages to get them to actually vote will dominate the next election outcomes.  Mayors Nenchi and Iveson have done it in Calgary and Edmonton.  So it can be done.  The WRP is toast if this happens and the PCs are a wild card now with no leader to evaluate.

I think the next two elections are up for grabs by any party who wins the hearts and minds of women and youth - if the Angus Reid poll is right.  That is still an open question for me.

Neil Young Calgary Concert Fantastic

I went to Calgary on the weekend to see the Neil Young concert and to learn more about the ACFN campaign on Honouring the Treaty.

The Concernt was great.  Krall was enchanting and Young was enthralling.  There was little to noproselytizing from the stage but everyone in the full house knew what the event was in aid of.

The audience ws not your usual corporate crowd you often attribute to Calgary.  It looks like the four city tour will generate about $500k in proceeds and I hear some ENGO's may be matching this.  If so the war chest for fighting for treaty rights is will stocked.

The Teach In that afternoon was a disappointingly small crowd of mostly the converted and already knowledgeable.

As a front-end Baby Boomer I remember the Teach In movement well.  It is a great device to bring consciousness and raise awareness.  Lots of great comments on treaty issues from young and well informed panelists.  It was a bit of a refresher course for me on trety rights.

So now the stage is bare and the audience has gone home.  Will the conversations caused by Neil Young close with the curtain or will it continue?

I hope it continues but with more accuracy on facts, a more authenthic represnetation of the context of the oil sand and a better mutual respect of participants.

Yound closed the concert saying it was alright for good people tro disagree.  That does not mean differences of opinion cannot create and foster a mutual respect, and even friendships.

That is my personal experience, many times over, espeically in politics.  However, the facts and forums have to accurate and respectful too.   The oil sands industry reached out to Mr. Young in that spirit to meet with him in a public discussion while he was in Calgary.  I understand Mr. Young and company insisted that Dr. Suzuki moderate the event and the oil sands participants wanted a neutral moderator.  So the event never happened.

If that is the reason for failure to connect and communicate, it is disappointing and deters from the kind of informative dialogue  Mr. Young says he is trying to initiate.  Perhaps the idea can be revivied.  I will think about that idea and see if it is worth pursuing further.

Alberta Party Leader Reaches Out to Albertans Who Want Change.

Alberta Party President Greg Clark reaches out to by an open letter Albertans who are ready for change that is refreshing, caring, inclusive and fiscally prudent to look at politics and government differently.

Dear fellow Albertan,

Politics is changing in Alberta. Last election, the people of Alberta gave the PC Party their 13th majority government on the hope that new leadership would modernize the party and move it in line with the evolving values of Albertans.

Unfortunately, change from within hasn't worked.

This is an important time in Alberta history; the decisions we make now will determine whether or not Alberta remains economically prosperous and socially strong for generations to come.

Alberta needs a government capable of creating a long term plan, and sticking to it. We need a government committed to ensuring we have good jobs now and for our kids. A government committed to keeping our economy strong while still protecting our environment and a government that will return power to local MLAs to allow them to stand up for the people who elected them.

Most of all, we need a government with integrity and free from entitlement.  

This is about something bigger than the PC Party... way bigger. The world is changing and Alberta needs to not just change with it, we need to lead that change. This requires new thinking and new energy in government.

If you voted for the PC Party in the last election and you're considering what to do next, I think you'll like what you see in the Alberta Party.

You can learn more at www.albertaparty.ca and you can contact me directly on my personal email at greg.clark@albertaparty.ca or on twitter at @GregClark4AB.
Sincerely,

Greg Clark, Leader
Alberta Party

http://www.albertaparty.ca/

A Visual Poem of Love for the North by Tim Moen

I invite you to view this visual poem of Fort McMurray, Fort Chip, and the Peace Region of northern Alberta.  It is shot by long time McMurray resident, helicopter pilot, videographer, blogger and fireman, Tim Moen.

I met Tim Moen last September when Neil Young came to Fort McMurray to shoot a documentary in the region and to meet with First Nations people in the RMWB.  Tim flew his helicopter for the shots for the video.

I came to McMurray to meet Neil Young and his crew to give some context on the social realities of people working in and around the oilsands.  Lot of good my input did.  Shortly afterwards Mr. Young did his over the top comparison of Fort McMurray to Hiroshima.  Tim's video belies that comparison.

Tim's video shows places in the oil sands region you don't see from the highway but that makes up the majority of the landscapes of the region.  With all the industrial development going on the oil sands region we still have about 97% of the regional biodiversity intact.

The Alberta Biodiveristy Monitoring Institute is a great source for information and context on how this is measured and monitored.  Look it up if you are interested. If you are an Albertan, you are an owner of the oil sands, so you will be interested in learning more I am sure.

The human settlements in the boreal forest make this biodiversity an imperative ecological value we need to protect while we create economic value from the resources in responsible and sustainable ways.

We also have to ensure the human social divesity in places like Fort McMurray are also valued, protected and social inclusion and cohesion are promoted.

Speaking of social divdersity, of the 74,000 or so people living in the urban core of McMurray, they come from 127 differenct countries and speak over 69 languages.  That is a Petri dish to grow a global model for a sustainable, inclusive, vibrant and diverse society, or the largest dysfunctional truck stop on the planet...if we mess it up.

Tim's obvious love for the land and strong sense of place in his home in the RMWB made me think about these things.  He articulates these sentiments so well with these visuals that I call the video a poem.  It is a relaxing 12 minutes so take the time to enjoy and let the mood wash over you.

Here is the link

KEN CHAPMAN IS BACK and WILL POST AGAIN on A REGULAR BASIS

Hello neglected readers.  This was a very popular blog site at one time.  I went into a job based out of Fort McMurray with the oil sands industry that made this kind of blogging difficult.  Anything I said could and would (but not should) be interpreted as speaking on behalf of certain oil sands companies. Not fair to them...or me!  But such is life.

A New Job and a New Blog:
I have a new life now and a new position at Edmonton Economic Development and blogging is mandated there not discouraged.  My mandate is to increase the collaboration between the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo and the Edmonton Capital Region in areas of business, sustainability and community well-being.

Part of the EED mandate is going to be covered in another blog about the Edmonton area involvement in the oil sands using the triple bottom line and sustainability principles.  Edmontonians are owners of the oil sands and need to know more on how we can take care ensure the oil sands are developed in a responsible sustainable and sensible way.

We need to take our citizenship obligations seriously and demand from government and industry that oil sands resource development be more sustainable.  We need to expect optimizing oil sands be for the general well-being of people.  We need to expect our oil sands deliver enhanced environmental stewardship.  We deserve development that is less wasteful and more profitable for the posterity of future Albertans.

I have a new blog to serve that purpose and I hope you visit regularly at www.oilsandsken.com.

I have a hankering to re-engage in the Edmonton social media scene after an absence of way over 2 years.  I have some catching up to do!

The Refocus of This Blog:
I hope this blog is a link between the communities and people  of Edmonton and Fort McMurray.  I have realized that there is a lot of myth and misinformation about life in McMurray within Edmonton.

I love both communities and want to help enhance the collaborative relationships and expand the appreciation and understanding of what great things the two regions can do together for mutual benefit and the greater good.

This blog is to become a focal point for that end.  Of course I will be opinionated but I will also be informed and hopefully sufficiently authoritative to be worthy of your time and trust.

Mr. Prime Minister: Promote Philanthropy - Stop Playing Politics

I just read Brett Wilson's National Post opinion piece on the HarperCons "boys in short pants in the PMO" manufactured manipulation over Justin Trudeau charging fees for speaking at charity events.

He deals with the substance of this issues of promoting philanthropy through speaking engagements.  It is worth a read and reflection.  I agree with him.

As for the politically motivations of our Prime Minister using this bullying as a deflection device is a feeble in effective attempt to divert attention from the moral corruption in his leadership.  The permanent drop in his support amongst Canadians shows we have had enough of his affinity for US style dirty-trick politics.

It is time for political leadership in Canada that is dedicated to the greater good and not just committed to suppressing democracy to retain personal political power.

Robocall Fraud Coming Home to Roost on the Harper Government?

Looks like the boy the Conservative Party threw under the bus on the Guelph Robocall scandal is not going quietly into the night.  Michael Sona spoke out recently in a very extensive interview with journalist Michael Harris.  If convicted Sona goes to jail. His description of how controlling the Harper War Room was in the past election makes you wonder why anyone with self respect would volunteer for such abuse.

If you want a first person perspective on the Harper campaign machine and its machinations from someone who was there you want to read the Harris column in iPolitics.

Here is the money quote from Sona:

“I’ve learned three things from the Robocall Affair. Talking points aren’t always right; friends are fickle when you get in trouble; and I trusted the Conservative Party way too much. And one other thing. I’m ready to fight now and I’m ready to win.”

Expect as many tricks as there are in the CPC book of tricks on how to thwart justice by delaying the trial  any way they can.  Delay tactics is how they handled the original Robocall trial that found the Conservative Party lists were use for election fraud.  The evidence was too sparse to prove who actually did it.  One would think ethics and integrity would dictate that the Conservative Party would be working really hard to help find and expose the fraudster who misused their political lists. 

So far there is not a peep from the Conservative Party to indicate they are engaged in any way to help the RCMP find the fraudster. 

Not a good way for the Conservative Party to show citizens they want to help restore voter confidence in how they do politics.  Even OJ said he would do everything in his power to find who really killed his wife.  

Edward Snowden, Freedom and the Media's Manufacture of Meaning

There is no doubt there is a need for fear, or at least anxiety, over our government's secret intrusion into our online personal lives.  Yes the Government of Canada too, not just the United States, is doing this.

Reassurances from those perpetuating this travesty say that the surveillance is only on foreigners, not citizens is hardly reassuring nor very genuine.  Those communications monitorings are ostensibly only on foreigners.  But foreigners connecting with whom?  American citizens is often as not the the answer.  For Homeland security that is what the US spy system is mostly interested, I expect.

This makes the sincerity  of the governments of the United States and Canada reassurances as to who is really being targeted by government invasion of privacy activities kind of, shall we say, "incredulous?" No wonder the USA is having trouble getting these "foreign" nations to cooperate with them in extraditing Snowden.  A collaboration culture is hard to create with these "foreigner" nations, when their citizens and institutions are admittedly being spied on by the America government.

If Snowden is right, and I've seen no official rebuttal yet, those nameless anonymous government operatives who are doing the online surveillance searches of email, cellphone calls etc., they only need a personal confidence rating of 51% that they are not dealing with an American citizen in order to proceed.  That puts a very low bar on standards of reasonable doubt don't you think? Since we don't know what metrics are actually being used to test what is involved in the 51% "confidence" (sic) level, it all seems to be so much manipulative Orwellian double speak.  It make the integrity of surveillance process entirely ridiculous, especially when it to making claims that only foreigners are the targets of this official invasion of privacy practice.

Yes the world is still a dangerous complex place and American soil is not sacrosanct from invasion, even by their own fundamentalists citizens as it turns out. So more than a decade after 9-11 we are still seeing our governments use fear over reason, secrecy over solutions, and, dare I say, fascism over democracy to justify further denial and erosion of personal freedoms.

Freedom!  That great American concept that motivated the G.W Bush government to take aggressive measures and to use freedom as justification for invading Iraq and Afghanistan.  He wanted to give those poor folks the gift of American freedom...through invasion.  It would appear that the great American concept of freedom is what drove Snowden to choose to jeopardize his personal freedom.  He exercised personal freedom and came to a personal judgement, as a matter of democratic principle, when he decided to expose the US government secret abuses of freedom.  He also created a space for that very necessary conversation to take place about the place of personal privacy and freedom for American citizens.  That conversation needs to be open, candid and public, especially so when it has to consider their government's role to protect personal freedoms,....or ignore personal freedoms....or worse yet, abuse them.

The American government is clearly flummoxed about what to do since being "caught" in this secret underhanded system of what appears to be an unprecedented invasions of domestic and foreign personal privacy.  They find the facts are against them.  The law, while not strictly against them, is in serious disrepute.  And so they revert to calling Snowden names like traitor and pathetic gestures like canceling his Passport.

And where is the media in all of this?  Well the Guardian in the UK is doing the job. Check out their coverage. But where is the American media?  I hope this video clip of David Gregory's alamaring questioning Glen Greenwald of the Guardian on Meet the Press is not a representative sample of where mainstream American media is positioning itself in all of this. If so then freedom of the press in the USA is also as good as gone, at least so far as its independent role of being the public's eyes, ears, and sense-makers and narrative makers is concerned.

Population Changes; Will They Change Canada?

Stats Canada reports the national population increased by 85,500 in the first Quarter of 2013.  The ratio is 3 to 1 of population coming from immigration compared to internal growth.  The national average growth is .02% a rate that aligns with Ontario, Quebec, BC and Manitoba.

In real numbers new immigrants totaled 62,700 which was 4,600 more than Qtr1 of 2012.  The net flow of "non-permanent resident immigrants" (a technical term for Temporary Foreign workers?) was 14,900 in Qtr1 of 2013 versus 12,900 in Qrt1 of 2012.  That said our natural population sources were down 6.8% in 2013 from 2012.

The national figures are interesting but the provincial figures tell us more about the trends in the country.  What those population shifts mean is the really interesting stuff of these stats.  The core story is the continuing shift of population (and power?) to Alberta.  It is only about the first quarter of 2013 but the facts are telling.

Newfoundland is stable and PEI is down 200 folks.  Nova Scotia lost 1,800 people to net migration to other places in Canada. Actually 1,100 Nova Scotians moved to Alberta in the first three months this year. New Brunswick lost 700 folks to Alberta in the same time frame.  Jobs are still the attraction to Alberta.  The unanswered question are these Maritimers moving to the oil sands or are they flying in and flying out?  My sense is they moved so there is even more "migration" when you consider the fly in-fly out folks who still consider home to be in the Maritimes.

Central Canada is growing modestly but Quebec tells an interesting story.  Quebec grew past 8 million with comparable year to year growth of 14,100 new citizens, but 11,700 came from international immigration sources.  That is the second highest level in Quebec history, the highest level of international immigrants came in 1992.  Quebec is not losing many people to other parts of Canada either, only 900, the smallest out-migration since 2005.

Ontario is also growing at the national average.  There are over 13.5 m Canadians living in Ontario, up 22,700 in the first quarter of 2013, but hat is the lowest growth there since 1972. International migration is up 1000 compared to 2013 but Ontario lost 6000 people to Alberta in the same time frame.

B.C. is up 10,100 folks year over year, aligned with the 0.2% national average with 9,800 being international immigrants, but 3,400 of them are actually non-permanent resident types.  B.C. also lost 2,500 people to Alberta in the first 90 days of 2013.

Saskatchewan and Alberta tell a very different story.  Saskatchewan grew 0.4%  in the quarter mostly international migration which was at its second highest level in 2012 since 1972 and 2013 became the new second level of international immigration.  People are returning to the province, not leaving it.

Alberta is a case study very different from the rest. We grew by 34,000 which is 0.9% of a population just shy of 4 million now. This is the highest Alberta growth rate since 1972.  It comes from international immigration of 8,100, non-permanent immigrants of 6,900.  We have a net migration from within Canada of 13,400 mostly from Ontario and B.C.

This continuing shift to Alberta is about jobs and the economic influence of the oil sands.  Even may jobs staying in the rest of Canada are driven by oil sands development.  This is good and bad news for Alberta.  We have serious skilled labour shortages but the Stats Can numbers don't tell us if the migrants to Alberta are skilled.  They also don't come with their houses, schools, hospital beds or other infrastructure requirements. The growth infrastructure in Fort McMurray is already an unaddressed crisis. This population shift means it get worse unless provincial political attitudes about investing in public infrastructure changes - and dramatically.

Election Time is Coming in Alberta

The local municipal and school board elections are coming this fall - all over Alberta.  These local elections are not partisan affairs.  Local candidates run in wards or in smaller communities to represent people at the most "retail" of any order of government.  School Board elections are pretty passive gentile and usually pretty pointless events, given the limited authority and influence the school boards have.

Since most of Albertans are urbanized living in over 600 communities all over the province, there are a lot of different kinds of candidates and some different issues in the municipal government races.  There are lots of growth pressures on some communities.  Others face decline and are threatened with extinction.  There are vastly difference community cultures in the south, central and northern towns.  There are different realities for communities inside or outside the Edmonton-Calgary corridor. Then there are the dramatic differences between Calgary and Edmonton municipal cultures.

This diversity and variety of perspectives at election time gives local communities a sense of exceptionalism.  They see themselves as unique.  And for the most part they are...just like every other community (sic).   Then go to Fort McMurray.  There you will see real uniqueness, real diversity and real pressures.

I think every Albertan needs to be aware and informed of the issues facing their communities as well as Fort McMurray in these forthcoming elections.  That is right.  Think of yourself as a citizen of your Alberta community AND as a non-permanent citizen of Fort McMurray at the same time.

What happens in Fort McMurray and the Athabasca Oil Sands Region generally will have dramatic impact on your community too.  The development growth of the oil sands puts enormous pressures on McMurray  housing, transportation including roads, rails, birdges and air services, hospitals, schools, recreation, social cohesion, social profit sector services, police, fire, ambulance, arts, culture, spiritual  needs and other quality of life elements.

The resolution of  these problems in the oil sands will make it more difficult for other communities in Alberta to compete for trades, attention and other resources to meet local needs.  However if Fort McMurray fails to have its growth challenges met, so will Albertans fail to optimize the benefits of the oil sands.  After all all Albertans are owners of the oil sands.  We need to start acting like owners.  Part of acting like an owner is to become aware adn supportive of getting the quality of life in fort McMurray right.  When that happens we all benefit,  If it does not happen we all suffer loss.

This blog will give you information on what is needed in Fort McMurray to ensure it succeeds as a community and who can - should - must step up and make it happen.  Time to act like an oil sands owner Albertans.  Time to get educated about the people, planet and prosperity implications of oil sands development on the Athabasca Oil Sands Region and ALL OF ALBERTA.  

HOW IS PRIME MINISTER HARPER'S POPULARITY HOLDING UP THESE DAYS?

The Huffington Post reports on a CBC exclusive survey on Canadians change of attitude about Prime Minister Stephen Harper, done by Nik Nanos, one of the most reliable pollsters in the biz these days.

Canadians when asked how satisfied they were about our Prime Minister's explanation of the $90,000+ cheque his Chief of Staff wrote to then Conservative Senator Mike Duffy to cover his unwarranted expenses 72% of us said we were "dissatisfied or somewhat dissatisfied."  Only 27% were OK with Prime Minister Harper's explanation about what he really knows about the circumstances around the cheque.  

The Government of Canada continue to say it cannot produce the cheque in question because it is a personal cheque and that is not within their power to produce.  Strange though they have not seen it reasonable to asked the formed Chief of Staff of our Prime Minister to volunteer a copy to clear the air.  

Might be helpful to co-operate publicly now and find a way to disclose the cheque before the recently announced criminal investigation by the RCMP does it for them. 

It is not as if the Duffy-Wright scandal is off the public's radar screen.  Nanos survey says 95% of Canadians are aware of this scandal and one in three of us hold our Prime Minister mostly to blame.

It is a long way to the next election in 2015.  Lots can change between then and now...it is politics after all.  One thing that will change is Alberta will have six more federal seats by then. What will happen to voting patterns in those new ridings?  How will the changing nature of the urban Albertan respond to our political options?  Next blog post will be on the changing population of Alberta.

Conversation With Author of Mistakes Were Made (but Not By Me!)

This is a book worth reading and understanding deeply.  It has great application to our view of politics, the way we see our role in the environment and how we conduct business, society and even ourselves.

You will get a practical insight into cognitive dissonance and how we fool ourselves again and again. This is a video of the conversation between author Carol Tavris and Ken Low the animator behind Leadership Edmonton and Leadership Calgary...you really need to Google these organizations too.

Tim Goos was kind enough to put the link in hi Paper.li "The EnviroAb Daily"  - It is at the bottom of the page.

It's an hour long conversation but worth it.

So What's Happening in Edmonton For Picking Our Next Mayor?

So I have received information on a poll done on preferred candidates for the Edmonton Mayoralty race this October.

This data is interesting as a provocation to conversation - not at all indicative or predicative of the outcome.  I offer these results not to enhance the superficial horse-race analysis that is the media fodder of most of these polls.  Note also that the predicative nature of "opinion" polls usually make astrology look good.

This poll is random in the province with a very small number of folks from Edmonton.  So this is not "grain of salt" stuff, it is an invitation to engage in a citizen's conversation about what character, capacity and caring do we want in the nest Mayor of Edmonton?

Get to know the candidates beyond the media report. Come to forums, read bloggers (with a grain of salt) consider what is important to you about leadership.  What is the stuff of being  citizen of Edmonton that is important to you?  Which candidate comes closest to your sense of the city...and can you say clearly why you will vote for the candidate you "best" support.  Don't expect any one candidate to b perfect.  They aren't, but neither are we in how we made decisions on who we will grant our consent to govern us.

So as at between April 20 to May 4, when only one candidate has actually declared intentions to run, here are the results:

1. Kerry Diotte: 19.4%
2. Don Iveson 17.6%
3. Karen Liebovici 15.1%
4. Tony Catarina 12.9%
5. Amarjeet Sohi 6.9%

Diotte has declared he was running before the poll and Sohi and said he is not after the poll.

So don't jump to conclusions but do create time and place for conversations on the future of Edmonton, the leadership we need and how do we get it?

Interested in our comments and hope for a conversation about the kind of leadership we need for Edmonton on this blog.

Brent Rathgeber Man of Political Character

I know Brent a bit, when he was in the Klein Progressive Conservative government.  He was smart and insightful and had a great legal mind.  He was also an independent thinker then.  I formed these impressions from political meetings and convention conversations but mostly from some consulting work I did for the Alberta Minister of Justice and the Speaker of the Alberta Legislature.

I was reviewing the risk management policies for the Government of Alberta as a result of a defamation lawsuit brought against Stockwell Day, a Minister in the Klein Cabinet.  The issues were complicated, politically laced and competing values were everywhere.

Brent grasped all of this in one and was immediately able and interested in exploring the issues, the implications and all in the context of the goal of public service and the greater good.  He was not a guy who as concerned about the "Party" or his position in it.  He was a democrat and a politician with character and competence.

I have to say I was sorry to see him join the Harper government.  I always thought he was better than that.  Well I was right.  It took some time but the Brent Rathgeber I knew is back to being himself again.

Rex Murphy has a take on this that puts some more context on what I am trying to say.

Last Wednesday as a good day for democracy.  Citizens need to be very careful who they vote for and why.    We get the government we deserve, especially if we don't vote or vote mindlessly.

Why Robin Ford is Bad for Progressives

The Kahneman work is the thesis on why the Robin Ford Scandal is bad for progressives.  Give the Star story a read here.

The essence of the Kahneman thesis is this:

Behavioural economics has shown that the more times you hear something - even if you don't believe it, the more familiar it becomes.  Familiarity breeds a sense of seeming truthfulness...what Colbert calls "truthiness."
Question is will inert complacent and compliant Progressives become even more disassociated with politics because of an even more enhanced sense of cynicism due to Mayor Ford.

I recently attended a lecture sponsored by Leadership Edmonton by Carol Tavris, the authour of "Mistakes Were Made but Not by Me.."  She spoke of cognitive dissonance and self justification.  The cognitive dissonance aspect applies to those who support something that they even know to be untrue is rationalized by focus selective evidence.  I am sure mayor Ford is getting some positive feedback from his supporters who feel theyhave to rationalize their mistake in voting form him

We are seeing some of that perhaps with the comments of Prime Minister Harper who says he was not told of the Duffy payoff by his Chief of Staff so therefore he has nothing to do with it.  Also the "facts are clear" avoids dealing with the legal and moral obligation to deal with the mistake...duck and cover is not leadership but his base will use this selective "evidence" to justify their earlier support for Harper.

Thinking of a blog post on Integrity as a fading value in a complex political and partisan world...stay tuned.

Orwellian Governance in the Canadian Context

If this blog is to revive I want to do it systemically and thematically around supporting the return to democracy through enlightened progressive citizen engagement.

My friend Allan Gregg recently spoke to the Alberta Federation of Labour about this set of issues in the federalist context.  I thank the folks at Rabble.ca for posting it for the rest of us.

This is a 38 minute video.  So get a coffee or a tea and settle in and focus on the content and context.  In a sober second thought, perhaps you should pour yourself something stronger.  You may feel you need it after you fathom Allan's message.

Orwellian Governance in the Current Canadian Context

Looking forward to your feedback...even on if I should be back.

Is it time to revive this blog?  I will be publishing on oil sands issues as an owner of the asset at oilsandsken.com.

Is there another theme that this blog could pursue around citizen engagement and democracy commentary?