Monday, November 06, 2006

I Like This Poll Result for Dion

The Toronto Star has run a story on an EKOS Poll showing good growth potential for Dion. I like that. The front runners in the federal Liberal campaign apparently are carrying too much baggage to really grow much on subsequent ballots. It is going to be a cliffhanger Dec 2 in Montreal for the federal Libs on all accounts. But I, like everyone else, am just guessing. Lots of time left and campaigns matter.

Now I wonder if we will see the "baggage issue" develop around the leading Alberta PC candidates. Oberg for sure deserves a serious second look by those who support him or are inclined his way. Albertans are now just starting to pay serious attention and are just begining to understand the implications of the PC leadership campaign for the future of the province and themselves. If they start to get nervous about the "baggage" of the front runners and seek alternatives they will also start to look around in earnest for a rational capable candidate instead of those in the front of the pack. My bet is they land on Hancock.

My friend Will McBeath at Noisefromtheright - active in the Ted Morton campaign - disagrees in his posting today and thinks Hancock is done. Three weeks left and he figures it is all decided. Maybe. But with the one person one vote right up to and including election day - anything can happen. Remeber how "scary" Harper was in the last week of the 2004 election as a result of his vocal social conservative supporters? Could it happen again, this time to Ted Morton? Rememeber how Stephen Mandel became the rational alternative from the baggage laden front runners in the last mayoralty race in Edmonton?

If people begin to realize the rough road some of the "leading" candidates will send us down they may engage and participate. If Albertans want a capable change agent of character, experience and proven capability - Dave Hancock is the obvious alternative.

But politics is never obvious and the wisdom of the crowd that shows up in the dying days of 2006 will decide the nature and nuance of the next Alberta for the rest us. Time will tell.