My info is there is the new poll coming out tomorrow. It polled PC members but only those who have had their membership cards turned in to the party. Lots of campaigns have held back their membership so it is informative but not conclusive.
There is a horse race between Dinning and Morton. Oberg has fallen back into a pack for third place and the pack is way back behind the top two.
Saturday is getting more interesting all the time.
I guess the problem with the other candidates is that they are all splitting the Edmonton vote (without doing the same in Calgary, as Dinning and Morton have huge numbers there).
ReplyDeleteThought you were supporting Hancock - why do you think he and the others are so far behind? I'm also surprised to hear that Morton is assured second place. I know he has momentum, but that much?
Ken, are you going to post about some of the oddities during the advanced pool and how it was very disorganized.
Maybe we should switch to the mechansims used by the LPC (...although they are thinking of switching to a one-member one vote format).
The advanced poll issue was best expressed by Will McBeath in Noisefromtheright. I could add nothing to what he said.
ReplyDeleteA poll result is a fact in time. Facts need context and interpretation before they can have any worthwhile meaning attached to them.
That said I do not "think" they are far behind, my sources tell me based on the findings of "fact" from the poll that they are far behind.
We have to look at who was polled and if it was he old or even the recent PC list only. If so it has some merit but so many campaigns have held back their memberships from the party office...including Hancock...that it is infomative but not necessarily conclusive.
I deal in data and analysis at one level and inspiraton and imagination at a superior level. Time will tell as to what engaged citizens want the future of the province and the party to be like.
I can wait and accept the final results...when we know them. In the meantime this is just so much like reading tea leaves or entrails.
Campaigns matter and the world is run by those who show up!
What's the reason for holding back memberships? (I know other camps are doing so as well). Are they afraid that the contact info will be leaked?
ReplyDeleteThere is no voters list...you can walk in the polling station on Saturday with ID and $5 buy a membership and participate. Impulse may be a factor ...except maybe at -23C.
ReplyDeleteWhy would you turn in memberships -that will not get processed in time or accurately by the party office for what ever reason anyway. Who needs to know this information for the voting?
After Saturday or the Dec 2 vote - turn em in for processing...not a leakage issue. No reason to do it.
The party gives all nominated candidates the updated membership lists so that they can contact them for the purposes of campaigning - so the voters you turn in are now available to other camps to contact and potentially impress.
ReplyDeleteKen, as you are a card-carrying member of the liberal party of Canada (which I find a little odd, but okay) - would you please give us an analysis of the "nation" motion being debated. I've read some of your work and would be interested in seeing your thought about whether Alberta is a nation within a united Canada.
ReplyDeleteMy federal Liberal card purchase was to support Stephane Dion. I am glad I did it.
ReplyDeleteIt was also motivated by the fact I am working hard to convince others in Alberta to join a political party (PC Alberta to be exact) who otherwise would not be so inclined.
My pitch is about making a difference, expressing your preferences and and participating as citizens.
Dificult to preach and not practice.
Nation - Notion : Tomato - Tomato?
Lots of thoughts but pretty pre-occupied right now.
I will comment mid-next week