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Monday, November 27, 2006

Is Premier Stelmach Possible?

So based on my assumptions and the earlier posting allocating Hancock, Oberg and Norris support to Stelmach, coming out of Edmonton and the rural vote he is effectively tied with Morton for and adjusted base vote going into the second week.

So what happens in Calgary? First Dinning owns Calgary with 13752 votes for 53% of the total. Awesome control over that city. Morton was a respectable second place with 6817. So what happens to the Hancock, Oberg and Norris votes in Calgary?

I think all the Hancock, Oberg and Norris votes go to Stelmach. They are urban votes and any bleed may be from Norris but the base is so small as to not make much of a difference. I do not think the Calgary Oberg votes will switch to Morton if they are evangelical or, maybe Dinning if they ad Calgary-centric, or they stay home. One can not possible know this dynamic. At any rate, this is the best possible scenario for Stelmach.

To catch second place Morton, Stelmach needs to garner over 6800 votes. Well he has 1256 of his own, 542 from Hancock and 702 from Norris and assuming all of Oberg’s Calgary support goes to Stelmach – a big assumption, he gets 2946 from Oberg. That total 5446, leaving him about 1000 to 1500 votes shy of an equal footing with Morton when all the reallocations are done…again you have to accept my assumptions on allocation and retention by the also-rans.

That is to my mind terrific and means it is doable to catch Morton. Of course the sale of many more memberships to people committed enough to show up is key. Stelmach has growth potential in Edmonton and the North and some central rural, Dinning has growth in Calgary and region. Morton has many more Reformers, Alberta Alliance and Evangelicals in his hip pocket yet too. There were over 70,000 Alliance ballots cast in the 2004 election and Morton only has 25,600 first ballot votes. He has growth potential too.

This could be a 34/33/33 split after the second ballot. If so, based on second vote preferences we get Premier Stelmach so long as the middle 33% is him!