Saturday, September 27, 2008

Harper "Achingly Close" To a Majority

The EKOS polling firm has gone deeper than most pollsters in this election. They are not stuck in the misleading national poll numbers but rather do seat projections in each province. Their results are much more interesting and nuanced than the other polls I follow.

The voter volatility in Quebec and Ontario is the key to the results in this election. EKOS says the BQ is on track to win BIG in Quebec. The slight shift of a few hundred voters will make all the difference in the outcomes in ridings in Quebec and Ontario. I expect lots of drama on election night and the issue of a Harper majority – on not. Canadians may have to wait until BC decides that issues one way or another on October 14.

The four way horse race in BC in other polling results is misleading because it ignores the efficiency of the Conservative vote in Lotusland. The Conservatives are in the driver’s seat to win big in BC. EKOS has projected them at 24 seats as of yesterday with the NDP doing rather well with 8 seats and a Liberal meltdown to 4 seats. B.C. is no long the "Left Coast."

The Cons are “achingly close” to a majority with 146 seats according to the EKOS seat projection. The Liberals are getting down to John Turner level of seats and now projected at 66 with almost 2/3 of their seat projections coming from Ontario.

EKOS shows a resurgence of the Bloc in Quebec that is apparently thwarting the Harper majority with a little help from a slight shift in Ontario to the Liberals who were closing the seat gap with the Conservatives in the past week.

The easy to overlook “sleeper” result in this weeks EKOS seat projection is the prediction of 1 LIBERAL seat in Alberta. That has to be Jim Wachowich, who is my choice in my constituency of Edmonton Centre. Harper is taking Alberta for granted and Edmonton is a contrarian place and may be sending him a message.