Pollsters who use sample sizes of 243 in Quebec and 384 in Ontario and spin the “results” as being indicative of anything proximiting a degree of accuracy should be embarrassed. Those sample sizes are too small to make a definitive comment on voter stances in Quebec and Ontario with over 7 and 12 million people respectively.
Remember these days pollsters have to phone 15 -20 people before anyone answers their questions. So they are pretty self selecting people and not necessarily very representative. Also they don’t call cell phones so they miss the youth and young adult voter sentiments as well. Take this so called voter intention information with a grain of salt...and don't be fooled into thinking this is more fact than fancy. It is not.
The Pollsters were totally embarrassed in the 2006 election because they were mostly wrong last time, and significantly wrong - except for Nanos. He kept polling over the last weekend in 2006 and caught the shift in sentiment as Canadians got serious as they reflected on the future of the country.
Nik's three day running polls are showing very little variation in voter preferences from the 2006 election results...and it has been that way all through this election so far. In 2006 the Cons had 36.3%, Libs 30.2 and NDP 17.5. Not much has changed but MSM reports breathlessly as if something was actually happening that is different. It isn't!
This election will be decided on the long weekend of Oct 11-13 as Canadians reflect during Thanksgiving in the same way and about the future of the country as well as their own futures in uncertain times and who they dare trust. Many will not make a final decision until they pick up a pencil.
Harper is not a leader. He is a Misleader. I am for anyone but Harper BUT I know he has a very efficient and concentrated rural vote. So he has a real shot at a majority. Unless the rest of us show up to send him a message. We have to vote strategically to be sure to not split the vote either.
Partisanship has to conceded to pragmatism as conscientious Canadians who care for the country and the future for their kids cast a vote. Be sure to show up and vote. And be sure to vote Anybody But Harper.
I'm not sure which Nanos polls you have been watching the last week, but Nik has scored the poll 40% Conservative and 25% Liberal at least once last week.
ReplyDeleteHe's been showing an average spread of between 7 and 10 points for about two weeks now.