The volatility of the political scene all over the country is fascinating to watch and I would like focus on two examples. We have the spectacle of Jean Charest playing chicken with oppositions on his budget and the infamous "tax break for the middle class” that may (or not) trigger an election. The myth of the “so-called” fiscal imbalance in Quebec is now proven to be a myth if equalization money from Canada can be used for a tax reduction when it is supposed to provide for equivalent public service levels.
The ADQ and PQ parties are both on record as opposed to his cynical budget ploy by Charest. They say the tax break Charest wants would be better public policy if it were provided in the form of a debt repayment. That way the interest saved could be added to operating budgets through enhanced general revenues and that way serve the needs of Quebecers for generations. Charest is now being framed as a guy who can’t count akin to Joe Clark’s budget folly that brought down his minority federal government decades ago.
Next week will be most interesting in Quebec politics. I just hope the new Lt. Gov. in Quebec avoids an election and asks Mario Dumont to take a stab at forming a government with the PQ under a newly anointed leader in the form of Pauline Marois.
Another unfolding, or unraveling, drama, depending on your POV, is the aimless wanderings and wanings of the Harper Cons. The Base is angry at the lack of alignment of Harper’s actions to Reform/Alliance principles and the Quebec gambit of buying Charest’s victory with Ottawa tax money is backfiring too. The personal power agenda of the Prime Minister has alienated and aggravated just about anyone who he needs and wants within his sphere of influence.
He is now determined to devalue his political stock in Ontario with his legislative agenda to add and redistribute new House of Commons seats. It is god for the west but it is also more pandering to Quebec. That is now perturbing Ontarians even more as Harper moves to realign the seat distribution in a way that undermine their power and influence and short changes the largest voter group in the country.
With all the levers of power at his disposal for over 16 months and with no real threat of an election, unless he wants one, Harper has not been able to move beyond his political support ranking of the last election. Loyalty to his leadership from the Reform/Alliance side of the CPC is eroding and his personal trustworthiness and political integrity is in decline as well.
He is about to shut down Parliament and do an “Elvis” and “leave the building” in the next few weeks. more than a tad prematurely. He will leave a load of unfinished business and most of his critical policy Bills are now in limbo. This retreat from governing will enable his opponents, Dion in particular, to regroup and revive. He also forfeits the ability to control and set the political agenda in the media while wandering about the land on the BBQ circuit talking to his "choir" about yesterday's victories and avoiding discussions about today's realities.
Given that the big issue is going to be the environment and the fact it will continue to grow in importance this summer, Harper will become increasingly less relevant given his lack of traction, trust and tenacity on those issues. I am sensing the Harper era, such as is has been, is about to fade to black. The sound track will change and be full of whimpering and whining, with more vengeance and vanquishing to come from his partisans. That sentiment will show up with surprising results in many of the pending constituency nominations.
Look out for a multitude of maverick CPC bumper stickers on pick up trucks all over rural Alberta this summer saying: “Come Back Preston Manning. All is Forgiven!”
I can tell you that most members are quite happy with the leadership of the government and, as a result, have been steadily increasing their level of donations to the party.
ReplyDeleteDion has gained absolutely no traction and, in every single poll given, the public does not see him as a leader. Since you did no research, I will not either - but suffice it to say there are many articles and commentary about previous leadership candidates waiting in the background for Dion to fail (this includes the Director of the LPC!!!).
I find it odd that you are so estatic about the LPC being in second place - personally I would be fine if the CPC won another minority.
Eric - I expect the LPC to be in second place but not such a strong second place. Especially given the continuing fallout of Adscam and the wall to wall media coverage of the Gomery inquiry and the trumped up Income Trust RCMP investigation that continue to dog the LPC.
ReplyDeleteThen we have the internecine war for over a decade between Chrétien and Martin and the debacle that we saw in that transition of leadership. That does not engender confidence does it?
Given that Dion was a distant third in the December 2006 leadership and yet came up the middle (or the muddle as the case may be) to win it is not without its problems.
Dion had to pick a cabinet and exert power to establish himself as the leader while healing wounds in the post-leadership period.
Then he had to face the prospects of a very real threat of an engineered election after only a few weeks in office with a tired and broke party - both physically and fiscally.
YES I am very surprised the LPC has stayed at the same level of popular that they had in the last election. It is a miracle that the Dion Liberals are still within striking range of the Harper Cons.
It is ironic that it is Harper who is now too afraid to govern and running scared of the next election too. It was suposed to be Dion in that pickle wasn't it Eric?
Harper should be the hands on favourite of the country right now and he is far from it. Nobody is doing any better than he is but he has had all the advantages of power to strengthen his position.
So far he is showing very little real results and nothing in terms of improved popularity or personal trust...and the reasons for this are becoming shamefully obvious to everyone.
Eric the pessimist in you must realize every political leader always has previous and potential new players always waiting in the background if (hoping?)they would fail.
The fuse of leadership is lit on the day of your selection and it always burns down and out over time. You only hope you can accomplish something meaningful before the fuse runs out and you blow up or blow away.
Ken, a reality check - your party is fiscally bankrupt. In fact, not only is the LPC not raising money, there are huge loans from a lot of the leadership contenders. If they are not paid (which I am assuming will be the case), it will become a huge issue in the election. Just another corruption storyline.
ReplyDeleteYou underestimate the strength of the Blue Machine. Going into an election tied in the polls would not be a bad thing (and this is the reason why I supported going to an electino earlier this year).
Harper's rating on leadership are double that of Dion - says something doesn't it?
Anyway, a week in politics is a very long time and predicting results is futile. Let's have some policy decision. Should we be in Afghanistan? Why do the libs want a 2009 deadlien set? Etc.
Ah Eric!!! the LPC of Canada as to learn to connect with Canadians an individuals and not corporations. they have to get them to believe in a political party under the new fund raising rules before they can match your fund raising prowess.
ReplyDeleteThe CPC is masterful at this and offers a good model all other parties will have to learn from.
Owing money is not a sign of corruption - buying an election might be though! Ever thought you may be seen as having too much money and that you use is in abusive ways?
Like how do think Canadians view the attack ads the CPC did on Dion but done by your party outside of the writ period. That way the money would not have to be part of the spending limits in the election campaign laws but the political mileage would be achieved?
They were still pure political campaign messages...is that the kind of corruption that only money can buy?
Never underestimate your opponent or the potential for the unforeseen to happen in life or politics. The Blue Machine is formidable but are your policies, practices and candidates equal to the "machine" you have?
Harper is double Dion rating on leadership. Name recognition is a wonderful thing in such superficial matters. When the chips are down and there is an election going the real decision then has to to be made on issues of leadership perceptions of character and competence. That is when leadership criteria issues really matter...not now.
As for Afghanistan, we have to commit for at least a generation. I was pleased to see Harper floating the idea that we may renew and perhaps revise our commitment past 2009. I asgree with him.
I for one believe we need to stay past 2009. This is not so much a war as it is a rescue and rebuilding of a people and a nation.
Wake up Call for ERIC. Harper fading fast on confidence ranking as a leader in recent Angus Reid Poll - here is the link - read 'em and weep.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/15896
Yes I know Dion is no better but he is new and not the PM with all the power that conveys.