The House of Commons Ethic Committee is also tired of waiting for Stephen (Godot) Harper to live up to his promise of last November for an inquiry into the Mulroney-Schreiber Affair.
They have voted 6-5 to recall Mulroney for June 12th. The issue is not going away and Harper's delays and excuses about calling the inquiry are shewing away at his integrity and accountability.
The former PM refused to appear at an early recall because the inquiry was supposed to be around the corner. It is not happening – at least not so far and not very fast. So the MPs on the Ethics Committee are tired of waiting and want to know if there was more to the Mulroney-Schreiber relationship.
The Siemens bribery trial in Germany, one of Schreiber’s alleged clients/funders will bring a new twist to an already sorry, sand and sordid story. The Ethics Committee vote to recall Mulroney was 6-5 and I imagine the Cons were against the recall. They are good at using their little book of committee tactics and political tricks to try to protect Harper more than Mulroney. Harper is reported widely to have consulted his mentor Mr. Mulroney on the Cons strategy to win over the hearts and minds of Quebecers. Mulroney is consedered to be the source of the Harper positioning by implying support for the soft nationalist strategy in Quebec.
First Mulroney and now Bernier – both Quebec based political embarrassments for the Harper Cons. It gets better, or worse, depending on your POV. Consider Harper’s obvious support for the falling star, the ADQ Mario Dumont and concurrently snubbing Quebec Prime Minister Jean Charest, a man whose star is on the rise now. Harper should be looking to Charest for advice and mentoring on how to successfully lead a minority government and get stuff done.
That snub of Charest was just another of the classic political cow pies the brain trust in the PMO has deftly stepped into. Now they just can’t seem shake the political consequences off its shoe in the province of Quebec.
Showing posts with label Dumont. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dumont. Show all posts
Friday, May 30, 2008
Monday, May 26, 2008
Why Harper is Afraid of an Election
Harper has not gained any traction or sustained momentum in the polls since he became the pro tem Prime Minister of Canada so many long months ago.
He played with the Quebec sovereigntist’s “nationalists” sentiments a while back and got a dead cat bounce for a bit. He even got cozy with Mario Dumont of the right wing ADQ and intentionally snubbed the Quebec Prime Minister Jean Charest when he was suffering as the leader of a minority government. That has all changed recently. For Harper to realize his dream of a majority right wing government he needs Quebec or Ontario. Looks like Quebec as cooled to the ADQ and Mr. Harper’s friend Mario Dumont.
The blogger Paulitics gives a very comprehensive and interesting account of the shifting sentiments in Quebec. He is worth a read for sure if you are concerned about the future of a unified Canada. The Harper Cons friends, the ADQ, are in free fall. What will that to do Harper's prospects in Quebec in the next election?
The recent Quebec bye-elections are another reason why Harper has to be cooling if not quivering about facing the Canadian electorate any time soon. Quebec has figured him out, Ontario has as well and Atlantic Canada never did like him. The west is now more competitive – except for Alberta of course. But if Harper, the Albertan, keeps taking on personal advisors from the old Ontario Harris government and snubs the Alberta boys who made Ralph Klein and coached Mike Harris, you have to wonder how long they will stay “loyal” to Harper's cause.
He played with the Quebec sovereigntist’s “nationalists” sentiments a while back and got a dead cat bounce for a bit. He even got cozy with Mario Dumont of the right wing ADQ and intentionally snubbed the Quebec Prime Minister Jean Charest when he was suffering as the leader of a minority government. That has all changed recently. For Harper to realize his dream of a majority right wing government he needs Quebec or Ontario. Looks like Quebec as cooled to the ADQ and Mr. Harper’s friend Mario Dumont.
The blogger Paulitics gives a very comprehensive and interesting account of the shifting sentiments in Quebec. He is worth a read for sure if you are concerned about the future of a unified Canada. The Harper Cons friends, the ADQ, are in free fall. What will that to do Harper's prospects in Quebec in the next election?
The recent Quebec bye-elections are another reason why Harper has to be cooling if not quivering about facing the Canadian electorate any time soon. Quebec has figured him out, Ontario has as well and Atlantic Canada never did like him. The west is now more competitive – except for Alberta of course. But if Harper, the Albertan, keeps taking on personal advisors from the old Ontario Harris government and snubs the Alberta boys who made Ralph Klein and coached Mike Harris, you have to wonder how long they will stay “loyal” to Harper's cause.
Sunday, May 27, 2007
Are Charest and Harper Both Past Their "Best Before" Dates Already?
The volatility of the political scene all over the country is fascinating to watch and I would like focus on two examples. We have the spectacle of Jean Charest playing chicken with oppositions on his budget and the infamous "tax break for the middle class” that may (or not) trigger an election. The myth of the “so-called” fiscal imbalance in Quebec is now proven to be a myth if equalization money from Canada can be used for a tax reduction when it is supposed to provide for equivalent public service levels.
The ADQ and PQ parties are both on record as opposed to his cynical budget ploy by Charest. They say the tax break Charest wants would be better public policy if it were provided in the form of a debt repayment. That way the interest saved could be added to operating budgets through enhanced general revenues and that way serve the needs of Quebecers for generations. Charest is now being framed as a guy who can’t count akin to Joe Clark’s budget folly that brought down his minority federal government decades ago.
Next week will be most interesting in Quebec politics. I just hope the new Lt. Gov. in Quebec avoids an election and asks Mario Dumont to take a stab at forming a government with the PQ under a newly anointed leader in the form of Pauline Marois.
Another unfolding, or unraveling, drama, depending on your POV, is the aimless wanderings and wanings of the Harper Cons. The Base is angry at the lack of alignment of Harper’s actions to Reform/Alliance principles and the Quebec gambit of buying Charest’s victory with Ottawa tax money is backfiring too. The personal power agenda of the Prime Minister has alienated and aggravated just about anyone who he needs and wants within his sphere of influence.
He is now determined to devalue his political stock in Ontario with his legislative agenda to add and redistribute new House of Commons seats. It is god for the west but it is also more pandering to Quebec. That is now perturbing Ontarians even more as Harper moves to realign the seat distribution in a way that undermine their power and influence and short changes the largest voter group in the country.
With all the levers of power at his disposal for over 16 months and with no real threat of an election, unless he wants one, Harper has not been able to move beyond his political support ranking of the last election. Loyalty to his leadership from the Reform/Alliance side of the CPC is eroding and his personal trustworthiness and political integrity is in decline as well.
He is about to shut down Parliament and do an “Elvis” and “leave the building” in the next few weeks. more than a tad prematurely. He will leave a load of unfinished business and most of his critical policy Bills are now in limbo. This retreat from governing will enable his opponents, Dion in particular, to regroup and revive. He also forfeits the ability to control and set the political agenda in the media while wandering about the land on the BBQ circuit talking to his "choir" about yesterday's victories and avoiding discussions about today's realities.
Given that the big issue is going to be the environment and the fact it will continue to grow in importance this summer, Harper will become increasingly less relevant given his lack of traction, trust and tenacity on those issues. I am sensing the Harper era, such as is has been, is about to fade to black. The sound track will change and be full of whimpering and whining, with more vengeance and vanquishing to come from his partisans. That sentiment will show up with surprising results in many of the pending constituency nominations.
Look out for a multitude of maverick CPC bumper stickers on pick up trucks all over rural Alberta this summer saying: “Come Back Preston Manning. All is Forgiven!”
The ADQ and PQ parties are both on record as opposed to his cynical budget ploy by Charest. They say the tax break Charest wants would be better public policy if it were provided in the form of a debt repayment. That way the interest saved could be added to operating budgets through enhanced general revenues and that way serve the needs of Quebecers for generations. Charest is now being framed as a guy who can’t count akin to Joe Clark’s budget folly that brought down his minority federal government decades ago.
Next week will be most interesting in Quebec politics. I just hope the new Lt. Gov. in Quebec avoids an election and asks Mario Dumont to take a stab at forming a government with the PQ under a newly anointed leader in the form of Pauline Marois.
Another unfolding, or unraveling, drama, depending on your POV, is the aimless wanderings and wanings of the Harper Cons. The Base is angry at the lack of alignment of Harper’s actions to Reform/Alliance principles and the Quebec gambit of buying Charest’s victory with Ottawa tax money is backfiring too. The personal power agenda of the Prime Minister has alienated and aggravated just about anyone who he needs and wants within his sphere of influence.
He is now determined to devalue his political stock in Ontario with his legislative agenda to add and redistribute new House of Commons seats. It is god for the west but it is also more pandering to Quebec. That is now perturbing Ontarians even more as Harper moves to realign the seat distribution in a way that undermine their power and influence and short changes the largest voter group in the country.
With all the levers of power at his disposal for over 16 months and with no real threat of an election, unless he wants one, Harper has not been able to move beyond his political support ranking of the last election. Loyalty to his leadership from the Reform/Alliance side of the CPC is eroding and his personal trustworthiness and political integrity is in decline as well.
He is about to shut down Parliament and do an “Elvis” and “leave the building” in the next few weeks. more than a tad prematurely. He will leave a load of unfinished business and most of his critical policy Bills are now in limbo. This retreat from governing will enable his opponents, Dion in particular, to regroup and revive. He also forfeits the ability to control and set the political agenda in the media while wandering about the land on the BBQ circuit talking to his "choir" about yesterday's victories and avoiding discussions about today's realities.
Given that the big issue is going to be the environment and the fact it will continue to grow in importance this summer, Harper will become increasingly less relevant given his lack of traction, trust and tenacity on those issues. I am sensing the Harper era, such as is has been, is about to fade to black. The sound track will change and be full of whimpering and whining, with more vengeance and vanquishing to come from his partisans. That sentiment will show up with surprising results in many of the pending constituency nominations.
Look out for a multitude of maverick CPC bumper stickers on pick up trucks all over rural Alberta this summer saying: “Come Back Preston Manning. All is Forgiven!”
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Harper' s Senate Appointment Throws a Bone to His Base.
Prime Minister Harper’s recent heuristics are starting to show that he is really getting the hang of this symbolic political gesture thing. The two flags over Vimy Ridge and the idea awarding of the Victoria Cross to the Unknown Soldier are two stunning examples. It appears the Veteran’s lobby against awarding the medal to the Unknown Soldier has worked because it seems to have disappeared from the PMO’s agenda.
But now we have a master stroke. Prime Minister Harper’s announcement today Senate appointing Bert Brown, one of Alberta’s “elected” and so-called “Senators-in-Waiting” is at the very heights of political uber-symbolism - especially in Harper's Alberta.
Bert Brown is a nice guy and no doubt will be a great Senator. He is seen as a little single minded about Senate reform and has run, and won, three times in the Alberta elected Senators charade. He is a good man and congratulations are in order for him personally.
What is interesting here is the Prime Minister’s politics around the appointment. Sure the PMO couched this appointment it in terms of Bill C-43 and how serious Harper is about “moving forward on Senate Reform.” Don’t be fooled. This Senate appointment is Harper throwing a bone to his base, the CPC membership in Alberta, who, by the way, is seriously alienated from him these days.
Anger amongst the Alberta base is now to the point that, while it is still below the surface, the grumbling is now about Harper’s “betrayal.” He is seen as blatantly courting Quebec for personal power and ignoring the fiscal conservative principles of the party and playing for fools the very people in Alberta who feel they “brung him to the dance.”
As for courting Quebec, I would not be surprised if Harper is already in quiet backroom talks with his new best friend in Quebec, Mario Dumont. The leader of the ADQ sees himself as the “Prime Minister in Waiting of the Autonomous State of Quebec.” Dumont is flirting with opening up Constitutional reform where Quebec will finally sign in on the Constitution Act of 1982 in exchange for cash, and who knows what else. Is Harper taking the bait?
By the way, Prime Minister Harper, all of this would have been done by now, including an elected, effective and equitable Senate, if the Reform Party hadn't scuttled the Charlottetown Accord back in the day.
If Harper is serious about dealing with appeasing his Alberta base he doesn’t need to play with Constitutional amendments, or to entice Quebec or any interminable dance for Senate Reform. As an Albertan, Prime Minister Harper I have a couple of suggestions for some real changes that you can do it right now, without Constitutional amendments, that will really resonate with all Albertans.
It is high time to reapportion the seats in the House of Commons. Alberta and BC together have 64 seats in the House of Commons and the same population as Quebec, who has 75 seats. Alberta has a population of 3.3 million, and growing, but only has 28 seats. Saskatchewan and Manitoba have a combined population of 2 million and have 28 seats between them. Mr. Prime Minister, are you starting to see what is unfair with this picture?
Why not reapportion or create more House of Commons seat for Alberta and BC right now…before the next election…no doubt they would all vote for you and besides, it is only fair! And while you are at it can you change the per capita grants too? The population figures Ottawa uses for such per capita distributions are from the 2001 census even though we have new numbers for 2006. Alberta has added almost a million people since 2001 I’ll bet. Not fair, not fair at all.
Come to think of it Stats Can seems to be out on it population estimates of Fort McMurray and Grande Prairie by as much as 50%. Perhaps Alberta should do its own census and send the real numbers to you so they can be used in calculating per capita distributions for your Alberta.
After all you are not only the Prime Minister of Canada and Quebec's best friend in Ottawa, you are an important Member of Parliament from Alberta too. You can claim ad infinitum that your Alberta base has been screwed by the old Liberal government for the past 13 years. It is still being screwed today - and you know it and you can fix it.
Fixing those alienating factors for your home province will overcome any feelings of betrayal by your base given your romancing of Quebec. And it will be much easier to accomplish and more meaningful back home than Senate reform. You can do it and you should do it. But get at it right now, especially given the time you have left to govern before the next election. Time's a'wastin'!
Recommend This Post at Progressive Bloggers
But now we have a master stroke. Prime Minister Harper’s announcement today Senate appointing Bert Brown, one of Alberta’s “elected” and so-called “Senators-in-Waiting” is at the very heights of political uber-symbolism - especially in Harper's Alberta.
Bert Brown is a nice guy and no doubt will be a great Senator. He is seen as a little single minded about Senate reform and has run, and won, three times in the Alberta elected Senators charade. He is a good man and congratulations are in order for him personally.
What is interesting here is the Prime Minister’s politics around the appointment. Sure the PMO couched this appointment it in terms of Bill C-43 and how serious Harper is about “moving forward on Senate Reform.” Don’t be fooled. This Senate appointment is Harper throwing a bone to his base, the CPC membership in Alberta, who, by the way, is seriously alienated from him these days.
Anger amongst the Alberta base is now to the point that, while it is still below the surface, the grumbling is now about Harper’s “betrayal.” He is seen as blatantly courting Quebec for personal power and ignoring the fiscal conservative principles of the party and playing for fools the very people in Alberta who feel they “brung him to the dance.”
As for courting Quebec, I would not be surprised if Harper is already in quiet backroom talks with his new best friend in Quebec, Mario Dumont. The leader of the ADQ sees himself as the “Prime Minister in Waiting of the Autonomous State of Quebec.” Dumont is flirting with opening up Constitutional reform where Quebec will finally sign in on the Constitution Act of 1982 in exchange for cash, and who knows what else. Is Harper taking the bait?
By the way, Prime Minister Harper, all of this would have been done by now, including an elected, effective and equitable Senate, if the Reform Party hadn't scuttled the Charlottetown Accord back in the day.
If Harper is serious about dealing with appeasing his Alberta base he doesn’t need to play with Constitutional amendments, or to entice Quebec or any interminable dance for Senate Reform. As an Albertan, Prime Minister Harper I have a couple of suggestions for some real changes that you can do it right now, without Constitutional amendments, that will really resonate with all Albertans.
It is high time to reapportion the seats in the House of Commons. Alberta and BC together have 64 seats in the House of Commons and the same population as Quebec, who has 75 seats. Alberta has a population of 3.3 million, and growing, but only has 28 seats. Saskatchewan and Manitoba have a combined population of 2 million and have 28 seats between them. Mr. Prime Minister, are you starting to see what is unfair with this picture?
Why not reapportion or create more House of Commons seat for Alberta and BC right now…before the next election…no doubt they would all vote for you and besides, it is only fair! And while you are at it can you change the per capita grants too? The population figures Ottawa uses for such per capita distributions are from the 2001 census even though we have new numbers for 2006. Alberta has added almost a million people since 2001 I’ll bet. Not fair, not fair at all.
Come to think of it Stats Can seems to be out on it population estimates of Fort McMurray and Grande Prairie by as much as 50%. Perhaps Alberta should do its own census and send the real numbers to you so they can be used in calculating per capita distributions for your Alberta.
After all you are not only the Prime Minister of Canada and Quebec's best friend in Ottawa, you are an important Member of Parliament from Alberta too. You can claim ad infinitum that your Alberta base has been screwed by the old Liberal government for the past 13 years. It is still being screwed today - and you know it and you can fix it.
Fixing those alienating factors for your home province will overcome any feelings of betrayal by your base given your romancing of Quebec. And it will be much easier to accomplish and more meaningful back home than Senate reform. You can do it and you should do it. But get at it right now, especially given the time you have left to govern before the next election. Time's a'wastin'!
Recommend This Post at Progressive Bloggers
Sunday, April 08, 2007
Our April 8th Column in LaPresse
LaPresse 8 avril 2007
Ken Chapman et Satya Das
Les auteurs dirigent Cambridge Strategies Inc, groupe-conseil albertain en politique publique.
The emergence of Mario Dumont and his autonomist agenda profoundly alters the traditional landscape of the Canadian federation.
In the middle of political uncertainty, the only certainty we have left is that we are all living on moving ground.
Yet this shifting terrain can be a place of some promise. Depending on the connotation and the meaning attached, the word autonomist can also be descriptive of Alberta – a desire for jurisdictional autonomy, in the context of a profound attachment to the idea of Canada.
In a sense, it is good that Quebec shifted away from deciding the old federalist versus separatist criteria. That division brought us close to sterility and futility. Any new channel of discourse, so robustly supported by Quebec voters, is preferable to the stalemate.
Even more interesting is the consensus among commentators that the rise of the ADQ reflects the politics of identity. If this is true, it has implications outside Quebec, in other parts of Canada where similar strains on traditional identity are very much a part of the social and cultural landscape.
Dumont’s ADQ tapped into the angst of rural and socially conservative Quebecers over accommodations around immigration, family values, distrust of elites and a fear of an erosion of francophone identity. Apart from francophone identity, these are resonant issues in Alberta as well.
Dumont’s campaign comments have been characterized as “a more prudent kind of nationalism” allowing him to play both sides of the federalist-separatist fence, yet his future depends on how an autonomist approach is elaborated in practice. If this is about demanding Ottawa respect provincial jurisdiction and a belief that strong provinces add to the strength of Canada, we are all for it. If it means isolationism, we are not!
We see Dumont today as a three-legged man. He has one foot with the federalists, one with the separatists and another planted firmly with Quebec’s social conservatives. Can the “real” Dumont sustain this stance for very long? He has to shift his political weight one way or another or he will risk looking indecisive and ill-defined as the inevitable next election looms large.
We expect the dynamics, timing, issues and even the outcome of the next federal election will have a lot to do with Quebec’s concerns as well. Harper clearly now needs a new “best friend” in Quebec. Jean Charest is not “the man” any more. Andre Boisclair is done, and never was in the running as Harper’s new best friend. Enter Dumont as the great Harper hope for a majority federal government—thanks to Quebec.
Dumont's support for Harper will come at a price in both dollar distributions and the devolution of powers to the province. He will force Harper to look fiscally like a profligate federal Liberal. Our guess is Harper will be bound and determined to buy Quebec’s “loyalty” no matter what it takes. Harper needs to “embrace” Quebec in order to win a majority government. The rest of Canada will not be amused and tensions will rise. Not an easy game for Harper to play but the recent federal Budget shows that every political soul has its price.
We live in uncertain times with minority governments in Canada and Quebec and with Ontario facing an election this fall. Alberta is at best a year away from an election and who knows what these elections will decide or how they will change the country.
Citizens all over Canada are expressing dissatisfaction about how they are being governed. Quebec is just the most recent and the most dramatic expression of this discontent. If this keeps up, we may have to declare that old fashioned command-and-control politicians a nationally endangered species.
Whether Dumont is the first of a new breed, or a repackaged version of an old-school politician, remains to be seen.
Ken Chapman et Satya Das
Les auteurs dirigent Cambridge Strategies Inc, groupe-conseil albertain en politique publique.
The emergence of Mario Dumont and his autonomist agenda profoundly alters the traditional landscape of the Canadian federation.
In the middle of political uncertainty, the only certainty we have left is that we are all living on moving ground.
Yet this shifting terrain can be a place of some promise. Depending on the connotation and the meaning attached, the word autonomist can also be descriptive of Alberta – a desire for jurisdictional autonomy, in the context of a profound attachment to the idea of Canada.
In a sense, it is good that Quebec shifted away from deciding the old federalist versus separatist criteria. That division brought us close to sterility and futility. Any new channel of discourse, so robustly supported by Quebec voters, is preferable to the stalemate.
Even more interesting is the consensus among commentators that the rise of the ADQ reflects the politics of identity. If this is true, it has implications outside Quebec, in other parts of Canada where similar strains on traditional identity are very much a part of the social and cultural landscape.
Dumont’s ADQ tapped into the angst of rural and socially conservative Quebecers over accommodations around immigration, family values, distrust of elites and a fear of an erosion of francophone identity. Apart from francophone identity, these are resonant issues in Alberta as well.
Dumont’s campaign comments have been characterized as “a more prudent kind of nationalism” allowing him to play both sides of the federalist-separatist fence, yet his future depends on how an autonomist approach is elaborated in practice. If this is about demanding Ottawa respect provincial jurisdiction and a belief that strong provinces add to the strength of Canada, we are all for it. If it means isolationism, we are not!
We see Dumont today as a three-legged man. He has one foot with the federalists, one with the separatists and another planted firmly with Quebec’s social conservatives. Can the “real” Dumont sustain this stance for very long? He has to shift his political weight one way or another or he will risk looking indecisive and ill-defined as the inevitable next election looms large.
We expect the dynamics, timing, issues and even the outcome of the next federal election will have a lot to do with Quebec’s concerns as well. Harper clearly now needs a new “best friend” in Quebec. Jean Charest is not “the man” any more. Andre Boisclair is done, and never was in the running as Harper’s new best friend. Enter Dumont as the great Harper hope for a majority federal government—thanks to Quebec.
Dumont's support for Harper will come at a price in both dollar distributions and the devolution of powers to the province. He will force Harper to look fiscally like a profligate federal Liberal. Our guess is Harper will be bound and determined to buy Quebec’s “loyalty” no matter what it takes. Harper needs to “embrace” Quebec in order to win a majority government. The rest of Canada will not be amused and tensions will rise. Not an easy game for Harper to play but the recent federal Budget shows that every political soul has its price.
We live in uncertain times with minority governments in Canada and Quebec and with Ontario facing an election this fall. Alberta is at best a year away from an election and who knows what these elections will decide or how they will change the country.
Citizens all over Canada are expressing dissatisfaction about how they are being governed. Quebec is just the most recent and the most dramatic expression of this discontent. If this keeps up, we may have to declare that old fashioned command-and-control politicians a nationally endangered species.
Whether Dumont is the first of a new breed, or a repackaged version of an old-school politician, remains to be seen.
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
What If Borat Came to Film Mario Dumont's View of Quebec?
It occurs to me that Borat may be searching for a sequel to his cult flick “Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan.” Where better to go than have Mario Dumont take him on a road trip to make a movie based on the ADQ's view of Quebec! The funding would, no doubt, come from Canadian government sources, all in the name of national unity, so what is the risk?
What about this for a working title: “Mario Treats Borat to a Cultural Learning of the Glorious Autonomous State of Quebec.” Just substitute Celine Dion for Pamela Anderson, and have Mario do a quick script adaptation. He could write himself in as the new Asmat, the Producer and could use most of his election speeches and media comments as background and research.
I think a moose instead of the bear and a maple syrup truck works better in a Quebec context. How about a duet? Mario and Borat singing "Mon Pays" to the tune of "O Canada"! They could sing it from the Hotel de Ville balcony in Montreal in honour of Charles deGaulle's famous "Vive Quebec Libre" pronouncement. What a fitting tribute to the essence of the Dumont goal of renaming the province to "The Autonomous State of Quebec." As for the naked wrestling scenes, they could happen just about anywhere.
How much would have to change from the original movie? Just some minor adaptations and reasonable accommodations to fit the ADQ perceptual context and voila - you have a hit sequel.
What about this for a working title: “Mario Treats Borat to a Cultural Learning of the Glorious Autonomous State of Quebec.” Just substitute Celine Dion for Pamela Anderson, and have Mario do a quick script adaptation. He could write himself in as the new Asmat, the Producer and could use most of his election speeches and media comments as background and research.
I think a moose instead of the bear and a maple syrup truck works better in a Quebec context. How about a duet? Mario and Borat singing "Mon Pays" to the tune of "O Canada"! They could sing it from the Hotel de Ville balcony in Montreal in honour of Charles deGaulle's famous "Vive Quebec Libre" pronouncement. What a fitting tribute to the essence of the Dumont goal of renaming the province to "The Autonomous State of Quebec." As for the naked wrestling scenes, they could happen just about anywhere.
How much would have to change from the original movie? Just some minor adaptations and reasonable accommodations to fit the ADQ perceptual context and voila - you have a hit sequel.
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
How Will Harper Respond to the Changes in Quebec?
It is difficult to know what to make of the Quebec election results from way out here in Alberta. Understanding the implications for Canada is even more challenging. Here is what I think but I can assure you, we are now living on moving ground. The dynamics are so different that I feel know nothing for sure these days.
The pundit in me says that last night the electorate in Quebec sent a shot across Charest’s bow, sent a direct hit into Boisclair’s bow and let Dumont take a bow. It is a good sound bite but not helpful in understanding the implications of the Quebec vote last night.
So where are we, after having had some time to sleep on the Quebec election? Well there will be a raft of recounts so we are not yet sure of the final result but the popular vote was a three-way tie notwithstanding the final seat results. That three-way vote split should not be forgotten because it has serious implications for any minority government which has a short fuse by definition. I expect the dynamic, timing and outcome of the next federal election will have a lot to do with determining when the next Quebec election will happen and what it will be about.
The Quebec population shifted away from deciding who governs based on federalists and separatist criteria. It has not reverted to deciding government based on traditional left versus right criteria either. If you are to trust the observations on seasoned reporters from the province, the rise of the ADQ was more about identity politics and many Quebecers decided who to vote for mostly on that criterion. Dumont tapped the angst of rural and socially conservative Quebecers over accommodations around immigration, family values, and the distrust of elites and a fear of an erosion of the francophone identity. He also benefited significantly from the disenchantment of the old Liberal and spent PQ party hierarchies. Even as the second party Dumont is the undisputed winner from last night.
M. Dumont’s campaign comments have been characterized as “a more prudent kind of nationalism” allowing him to play both sides of the federalists-separatist fence. This so-called “autonomist” approach is repackaged sovereignty association to my mind. If it is about demanding Ottawa respect provincial jurisdiction and that strong provincial governments add to the strength of Canada, I am all for it. We shall have to wait and see what he means by an “autonomist” Quebec.
I see Dumont today as a three-legged man. He has one foot with the federalists, one with the separatists, and another planted firmly with the social conservatives of Quebec. Can the “real” Dumont stand up in this situation for very long? Time will tell but he has to shift his political weight one way or the other, sooner than later, or else he will look indecisive and ill-defined.
Harper clearly now needs a new best friend in Quebec. Charest is not “the man” any more. Boisclair is likely on his way out and never was in the running for Harper’s new best friend in Quebec anyway. Enter Dumont as the great Harper hope for victory in Quebec. Dumont's support for Harper will come at a price in both dollars and devolution of powers to the province. He will force Harper to spend and look like a profligate Liberal who is bound and determined to buy Quebec for power and peace, no matter what it takes. The last budget is a mere foreshadowing of this Quebec-centric spending spree Harper will have to embrace to win a Quebec based majority government I expect. The rest of Canada will will not be amused and tensions will rise.
Dumont’s Quebec base is also the old time-religion type so-cons that are reminiscent of the original western Reformers. That is a group that brought Harper to minority status but who he has abandoned as of late. Consider their growing disenchantment withHarper and his "set up" loss on the SMS vote, his reversals on Income Trusts, and the recent giveaway budget to Quebec. He is now seen as being all about a quest for personal power and abandoning the very principles that got him elected party leader and Prime Minister in the first place.
This means that the Dumont demands of Harper will force him to say one thing in Quebec and another in the ROC if his romancing of Dumont is going to work to win Quebec as the means to a CPC majority. Not an easy game to play.
We live in uncertain times with minority governments in Canada and Quebec now, and with Ontario on its way to the polls this fall. Alberta is a year away from an election too. Who knows what those elections will decide.
Citizens all over the country are expressing dissatisfaction about how they are being governed. Quebec is just the most recent and most dramatic expression of this discontent. If it keeps up we may have to declare old fashioned politicians as endangered species all over Canada. That may be a good thing come to think of it.
The pundit in me says that last night the electorate in Quebec sent a shot across Charest’s bow, sent a direct hit into Boisclair’s bow and let Dumont take a bow. It is a good sound bite but not helpful in understanding the implications of the Quebec vote last night.
So where are we, after having had some time to sleep on the Quebec election? Well there will be a raft of recounts so we are not yet sure of the final result but the popular vote was a three-way tie notwithstanding the final seat results. That three-way vote split should not be forgotten because it has serious implications for any minority government which has a short fuse by definition. I expect the dynamic, timing and outcome of the next federal election will have a lot to do with determining when the next Quebec election will happen and what it will be about.
The Quebec population shifted away from deciding who governs based on federalists and separatist criteria. It has not reverted to deciding government based on traditional left versus right criteria either. If you are to trust the observations on seasoned reporters from the province, the rise of the ADQ was more about identity politics and many Quebecers decided who to vote for mostly on that criterion. Dumont tapped the angst of rural and socially conservative Quebecers over accommodations around immigration, family values, and the distrust of elites and a fear of an erosion of the francophone identity. He also benefited significantly from the disenchantment of the old Liberal and spent PQ party hierarchies. Even as the second party Dumont is the undisputed winner from last night.
M. Dumont’s campaign comments have been characterized as “a more prudent kind of nationalism” allowing him to play both sides of the federalists-separatist fence. This so-called “autonomist” approach is repackaged sovereignty association to my mind. If it is about demanding Ottawa respect provincial jurisdiction and that strong provincial governments add to the strength of Canada, I am all for it. We shall have to wait and see what he means by an “autonomist” Quebec.
I see Dumont today as a three-legged man. He has one foot with the federalists, one with the separatists, and another planted firmly with the social conservatives of Quebec. Can the “real” Dumont stand up in this situation for very long? Time will tell but he has to shift his political weight one way or the other, sooner than later, or else he will look indecisive and ill-defined.
Harper clearly now needs a new best friend in Quebec. Charest is not “the man” any more. Boisclair is likely on his way out and never was in the running for Harper’s new best friend in Quebec anyway. Enter Dumont as the great Harper hope for victory in Quebec. Dumont's support for Harper will come at a price in both dollars and devolution of powers to the province. He will force Harper to spend and look like a profligate Liberal who is bound and determined to buy Quebec for power and peace, no matter what it takes. The last budget is a mere foreshadowing of this Quebec-centric spending spree Harper will have to embrace to win a Quebec based majority government I expect. The rest of Canada will will not be amused and tensions will rise.
Dumont’s Quebec base is also the old time-religion type so-cons that are reminiscent of the original western Reformers. That is a group that brought Harper to minority status but who he has abandoned as of late. Consider their growing disenchantment withHarper and his "set up" loss on the SMS vote, his reversals on Income Trusts, and the recent giveaway budget to Quebec. He is now seen as being all about a quest for personal power and abandoning the very principles that got him elected party leader and Prime Minister in the first place.
This means that the Dumont demands of Harper will force him to say one thing in Quebec and another in the ROC if his romancing of Dumont is going to work to win Quebec as the means to a CPC majority. Not an easy game to play.
We live in uncertain times with minority governments in Canada and Quebec now, and with Ontario on its way to the polls this fall. Alberta is a year away from an election too. Who knows what those elections will decide.
Citizens all over the country are expressing dissatisfaction about how they are being governed. Quebec is just the most recent and most dramatic expression of this discontent. If it keeps up we may have to declare old fashioned politicians as endangered species all over Canada. That may be a good thing come to think of it.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Is There a Pattern Forming Around the Harper Cons?
I hear the CPC is appealing the Court decision overturning the Rob Anders nomination in Calgary West. There is an interesting pattern that is forming here for the Conservative Party of Canada what with the events around Anders, Day and the last Ottawa race for mayor candidate involvement. Altogether they are either under investigation, pending investigation or under appeal from the courts. Real confidence and trust building events don’t you think?
I wonder who Harper called first tonight to congratulate them on the results of the Quebec election. My money is on Dumont first and Charest next. More on the Quebec election and what it means for Canada in a posting tomorrow.
Looks to me it is very much like a result that is close to what M. Leger said Quebecers wanted. they effectively have Dumont’s leadership, Charest’s MNAs and Boisclair’s policy.
I am glad Charest survived, party-wise and personally. It was nip and tuck for sure…on both counts.
I wonder who Harper called first tonight to congratulate them on the results of the Quebec election. My money is on Dumont first and Charest next. More on the Quebec election and what it means for Canada in a posting tomorrow.
Looks to me it is very much like a result that is close to what M. Leger said Quebecers wanted. they effectively have Dumont’s leadership, Charest’s MNAs and Boisclair’s policy.
I am glad Charest survived, party-wise and personally. It was nip and tuck for sure…on both counts.
Big Changes Coming in Quebec Tonight
On February 19th my posting asked “Could the Week of March 20-26 Change Canada.?” I was out by one day when the federal budget came out on the 19th. The Quebec election was not yet set for the 26th but I got that date right at least.
It is interesting to reflect on what I thought then and what has happened since. I predicted the Cons budget “…is going to be as bountiful for Quebec as you can imagine…and designed to ‘ensure’ a Charest victory.” Truer words were never spoken, except it did not work for Charest and Harper!
My intuition on February 19th was Dumont would be the big political winner out of the election when I predicted “…that Dumont and the ADQ are going to spoil the party for Charest and Harper. He is not going to win but he is going to be the winner. Quebecers like to make favourable federalist deals but they don’t like to be bought off overtly nor played for fools.” That has proven to be true too.
I said then “It is going to be a fundamental and future changing week for Canada, never mind the shenanigans of Harper and Charest. My guess is Quebec will take the money, Charest will win, the PQ Boisclair will be a bust and told by his party to hit the road and Dumont will hold the balance of Quebec power at the end or the day.
Then I predicted Dion will force the federal election on the Harper Budget and the future of Canada as a nation will once again be at play. We will not have an election over the Budget but we may have it over the Cons environmental package - but I don’t see it happening now until the fall…and that is a good thing.
As for the Quebec election outcome tonight I have another "what if" scenario. Recent media reports attribute this insightful analysis to Pollster Jean-Marc Leger who said, “Essentially Quebecers want Mario Dumont as Premier, they want the Liberal team and they want the PQ platform put into effect.”
So true, but is that going to be the outcome? I think it is entirely possible that the Leger observation of what Quebecers want can become a reality. Consider if Dumont forms the minority government and then the Charest team is in the catbird seat in supporting his minority government, then they can institute PQ policy. The PQ will be too are busy burying Boisclair by forcing a new leadership race. Quebec can have it all. The ADQ's real friends in the Harper government will be receptive because it can mean more CPC seats in Quebec. And Quebec can still have the luxury of using the tried and true referendum threats to extort more power and cash from Canada. Harper has already proven himself to be obliging to Quebec's perceived needs - even without extortion.
Quebecers have signalled through poll results that they are changing, and they want real change and they not prepared to be trifled with. A message is about to be sent in this election to the status quo federalists (read Liberals) and the status quo separatists (read PQ). The last time Quebecers decided to send a ballot box message that they wanted some real change was 1976 when they voted in the separatist government of Rene Levesque. It was a shock to the province and the nation because it seemed to happen out of nowhere particularly to those conventional wise men who thought tomorrow was a mere extension of yesterday. That made them blind to the signs of the serious change that was coming.
If the conventional wisdom today is correct that the two tired old-line parties are found to be wanting of trust and respect, it might just happen again. Are we seeing a sea-change in the politics of La Belle Province? What would be the consequences if the collective, but quite wisdom of Quebecers, decided today, impulsively and intuitively right at the polling station, and at the very moment of putting down their “X” they wanted once again to send a strong message to the "politics-as-usual" crowd?
What if Quebecers en masse decided the ballot question today was to reject the tired old line federalist-separatist lens of Quebec politics and they voted strongly for the ADQ, the so-called "third party?" Could we have an ADQ minority government emerge later tonight? It is as realistic as any other possible outcome under the current circumstances.
What ever the election outcome in Quebec today, some folks in the ADQ will be partying like it is 1976 again. All this in the face of a pending federal election of uncertain timing and outcome too. I smell real democracy and big time fundamental change in the air, not only for Quebec but for Canada too.
Fasten your seat belts Canada; we are flying into some serious turbulence no matter who wins the Quebec election.
It is interesting to reflect on what I thought then and what has happened since. I predicted the Cons budget “…is going to be as bountiful for Quebec as you can imagine…and designed to ‘ensure’ a Charest victory.” Truer words were never spoken, except it did not work for Charest and Harper!
My intuition on February 19th was Dumont would be the big political winner out of the election when I predicted “…that Dumont and the ADQ are going to spoil the party for Charest and Harper. He is not going to win but he is going to be the winner. Quebecers like to make favourable federalist deals but they don’t like to be bought off overtly nor played for fools.” That has proven to be true too.
I said then “It is going to be a fundamental and future changing week for Canada, never mind the shenanigans of Harper and Charest. My guess is Quebec will take the money, Charest will win, the PQ Boisclair will be a bust and told by his party to hit the road and Dumont will hold the balance of Quebec power at the end or the day.
Then I predicted Dion will force the federal election on the Harper Budget and the future of Canada as a nation will once again be at play. We will not have an election over the Budget but we may have it over the Cons environmental package - but I don’t see it happening now until the fall…and that is a good thing.
As for the Quebec election outcome tonight I have another "what if" scenario. Recent media reports attribute this insightful analysis to Pollster Jean-Marc Leger who said, “Essentially Quebecers want Mario Dumont as Premier, they want the Liberal team and they want the PQ platform put into effect.”
So true, but is that going to be the outcome? I think it is entirely possible that the Leger observation of what Quebecers want can become a reality. Consider if Dumont forms the minority government and then the Charest team is in the catbird seat in supporting his minority government, then they can institute PQ policy. The PQ will be too are busy burying Boisclair by forcing a new leadership race. Quebec can have it all. The ADQ's real friends in the Harper government will be receptive because it can mean more CPC seats in Quebec. And Quebec can still have the luxury of using the tried and true referendum threats to extort more power and cash from Canada. Harper has already proven himself to be obliging to Quebec's perceived needs - even without extortion.
Quebecers have signalled through poll results that they are changing, and they want real change and they not prepared to be trifled with. A message is about to be sent in this election to the status quo federalists (read Liberals) and the status quo separatists (read PQ). The last time Quebecers decided to send a ballot box message that they wanted some real change was 1976 when they voted in the separatist government of Rene Levesque. It was a shock to the province and the nation because it seemed to happen out of nowhere particularly to those conventional wise men who thought tomorrow was a mere extension of yesterday. That made them blind to the signs of the serious change that was coming.
If the conventional wisdom today is correct that the two tired old-line parties are found to be wanting of trust and respect, it might just happen again. Are we seeing a sea-change in the politics of La Belle Province? What would be the consequences if the collective, but quite wisdom of Quebecers, decided today, impulsively and intuitively right at the polling station, and at the very moment of putting down their “X” they wanted once again to send a strong message to the "politics-as-usual" crowd?
What if Quebecers en masse decided the ballot question today was to reject the tired old line federalist-separatist lens of Quebec politics and they voted strongly for the ADQ, the so-called "third party?" Could we have an ADQ minority government emerge later tonight? It is as realistic as any other possible outcome under the current circumstances.
What ever the election outcome in Quebec today, some folks in the ADQ will be partying like it is 1976 again. All this in the face of a pending federal election of uncertain timing and outcome too. I smell real democracy and big time fundamental change in the air, not only for Quebec but for Canada too.
Fasten your seat belts Canada; we are flying into some serious turbulence no matter who wins the Quebec election.
Monday, February 19, 2007
Could the Week of March 20 - 26 Change Canada?
UPDATE FEB 20
FINANCE MINISTER FLAHERTY ANNOUNCES TODAY THE FED BUDGET SPEECH WILL READ MARCH 19 - OK FINE...MAKE ME WRONG...BUT I STAND BY MY CONTENTION DURING THE WEEK OF MARCH 20 - 26 WE WILL SEE MORE PURE HACKERY DESIGNED TO PURCHASE QUEBEC "LOYALTY" THAT IT WILL MAKE CREDIT CARD FRAUD AT WINNERS LOOK LEGITIMATE.
There have been some very significant dates in the modern history between Quebec and Canada. The two referendums, the defeat of the Accords Charlottetown and Meech Lake, the FLQ Crisis and I rank the election of Rene Lévesque in 1976 as amongst the biggies.
Now we are poised for another one…the pending Quebec election speculated for March 26 as at the time of writing. The week of March 20 to 26th could be monumental for the future of the country.
On March 20 we are rumored to have a Federal Budget and 6 days later Quebec will elect a new government. Depending on the Quebec election outcomes Stephen Harper will do his best Charlie Chaplin staged pratfall and will cause a federal election to be called, perhaps by engineering the defeat of his budget.
That budget is going to be as bountiful for Quebec as you can imagine. The Mulroney CF-18 favoritism to Quebec is going to look like downright penury in comparison. Dion may be dancing with the devil Chrétien for political advice but Harper is siting at the feet of Mulroney, at least when George Bush is too busy to return phone calls because his is preoccupied with destroying American influence in the world.
Mark your calendars. March 20 Federal Budget and a give away to Quebec designed to “ensure” a Charest victory. All this for the feigned federalist forces (a.k.a the CPC election positioning for more Quebec seats). This will be the biggest news on Canadian television since Anna Nicole Smith’s death took Iraq and Iran off the 24 hour news cycle.
I have a sense that Dumont and the ADQ are going to spoil the party for Charest and Harper. He is not going to win but he is going to be the winner. Quebecers like to make favourable federalist deals but they don’t like to be bought off overtly nor played for fools.
Don’t under estimate Dumont. Back-of-the-packers have done rather well of late. Stelmach in Alberta, Dion in the Liberal leadership – even Stephen Harper was seen as a second rater until the RCMP thought they should announce their Income Trust investigation and helped Harper out in the 2006 election.
Quebec people do not like being played like cheap fiddles but they want change too. Hence Harper can utter a few choice words, like “fiscal imbalance” and “Quebec Nation” in the dying days of the last election. Harper did not even have to understand the words or the concepts behind them and he gets 12 Quebec seats. Not bad and not because they like Harper but because they wanted to send the Liberals a message…they could not be bought by cheap political tricks and they were humiliated by the implications of same in Adscam.
So come March 20…six days before Charest’s electoral D-day, Harper’s budget will offer a cornucopia of fiscal favours to Quebec and he will cozy up to Charest with so many promises it could only be described as fiscal promiscuity. Quebec will have to decide if it is only the price of their soul we are talking about or the fact of their soul.
It is going to be a fundamental and future changing week for Canada, never mind the shenanigans of Harper and Charest. My guess is Quebec will take the money, Charest will win, the PQ Boisclair will be a bust and told by his party to hit the road and Dumont will hold the balance of Quebec power at the end or the day. Then Dion will force the federal election on the Harper Budget and the future of Canada as a nation will once again be at play.
Bookmark your favourite iconoclastic Blogs and columnists for frequent reading that week. It is going to be fascinating.
Now we are poised for another one…the pending Quebec election speculated for March 26 as at the time of writing. The week of March 20 to 26th could be monumental for the future of the country.
On March 20 we are rumored to have a Federal Budget and 6 days later Quebec will elect a new government. Depending on the Quebec election outcomes Stephen Harper will do his best Charlie Chaplin staged pratfall and will cause a federal election to be called, perhaps by engineering the defeat of his budget.
That budget is going to be as bountiful for Quebec as you can imagine. The Mulroney CF-18 favoritism to Quebec is going to look like downright penury in comparison. Dion may be dancing with the devil Chrétien for political advice but Harper is siting at the feet of Mulroney, at least when George Bush is too busy to return phone calls because his is preoccupied with destroying American influence in the world.
Mark your calendars. March 20 Federal Budget and a give away to Quebec designed to “ensure” a Charest victory. All this for the feigned federalist forces (a.k.a the CPC election positioning for more Quebec seats). This will be the biggest news on Canadian television since Anna Nicole Smith’s death took Iraq and Iran off the 24 hour news cycle.
I have a sense that Dumont and the ADQ are going to spoil the party for Charest and Harper. He is not going to win but he is going to be the winner. Quebecers like to make favourable federalist deals but they don’t like to be bought off overtly nor played for fools.
Don’t under estimate Dumont. Back-of-the-packers have done rather well of late. Stelmach in Alberta, Dion in the Liberal leadership – even Stephen Harper was seen as a second rater until the RCMP thought they should announce their Income Trust investigation and helped Harper out in the 2006 election.
Quebec people do not like being played like cheap fiddles but they want change too. Hence Harper can utter a few choice words, like “fiscal imbalance” and “Quebec Nation” in the dying days of the last election. Harper did not even have to understand the words or the concepts behind them and he gets 12 Quebec seats. Not bad and not because they like Harper but because they wanted to send the Liberals a message…they could not be bought by cheap political tricks and they were humiliated by the implications of same in Adscam.
So come March 20…six days before Charest’s electoral D-day, Harper’s budget will offer a cornucopia of fiscal favours to Quebec and he will cozy up to Charest with so many promises it could only be described as fiscal promiscuity. Quebec will have to decide if it is only the price of their soul we are talking about or the fact of their soul.
It is going to be a fundamental and future changing week for Canada, never mind the shenanigans of Harper and Charest. My guess is Quebec will take the money, Charest will win, the PQ Boisclair will be a bust and told by his party to hit the road and Dumont will hold the balance of Quebec power at the end or the day. Then Dion will force the federal election on the Harper Budget and the future of Canada as a nation will once again be at play.
Bookmark your favourite iconoclastic Blogs and columnists for frequent reading that week. It is going to be fascinating.
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