Harper has not gained any traction or sustained momentum in the polls since he became the pro tem Prime Minister of Canada so many long months ago.
He played with the Quebec sovereigntist’s “nationalists” sentiments a while back and got a dead cat bounce for a bit. He even got cozy with Mario Dumont of the right wing ADQ and intentionally snubbed the Quebec Prime Minister Jean Charest when he was suffering as the leader of a minority government. That has all changed recently. For Harper to realize his dream of a majority right wing government he needs Quebec or Ontario. Looks like Quebec as cooled to the ADQ and Mr. Harper’s friend Mario Dumont.
The blogger Paulitics gives a very comprehensive and interesting account of the shifting sentiments in Quebec. He is worth a read for sure if you are concerned about the future of a unified Canada. The Harper Cons friends, the ADQ, are in free fall. What will that to do Harper's prospects in Quebec in the next election?
The recent Quebec bye-elections are another reason why Harper has to be cooling if not quivering about facing the Canadian electorate any time soon. Quebec has figured him out, Ontario has as well and Atlantic Canada never did like him. The west is now more competitive – except for Alberta of course. But if Harper, the Albertan, keeps taking on personal advisors from the old Ontario Harris government and snubs the Alberta boys who made Ralph Klein and coached Mike Harris, you have to wonder how long they will stay “loyal” to Harper's cause.
I can't get your rss feed. Pity.
ReplyDeleteRe RSS feed frustration - I wonder why you can't get it Ashley.
ReplyDeleteTry the email subscriber service FeedBlitz that is on my blog site. That works for me for other bloggers I follow.
Got it. I was trying the auto-discovery feed (from firefox's addressbar). I think that is broken, but I found the link on the side bar.
ReplyDeleteSorry Ken, but any suggestion that Quebec might separate -- even if they won a referendum -- is just so much hooey. Quebeckers -- even the hard core separatists -- are no different from most Canadians who think all taxwes should be cut or at least not apply to them. They talk a good game about setting up a nouveau world order, but this chronic have-not province has a long and successful history of not having to pay for their share of the cost of running Canada.
ReplyDeleteSo any suggestion that they must take their share of the national debt and their other obligations if they go would be enough ensure they don't leave Confederation. However, as long as they can achieve their goal of destabilizing the rest of Canada, as long as Cosnervative governments remain desperate enough for their support that they give in to virtually every demand, (right, Mulroney?)why would they stop fomenting secession.
A real PM -- and Stephen Harper isn't even on a par with Kim Campbell -- would stand up to Quebec's demands and give them less, not more, attention until they realize that the old paradigm no longer works. May then, they would play nice in the Canadian sandbox.
Anon @ 1:54 - did I say anything in this Blog post about separation for Quebec? But since you bring it up. Let’s chat about it for a moment.
ReplyDeleteHarper was playing the "nationalist card" in the vote getting politcal gamesmanship that goes on from time to time - and all the time with Mr. Harper.
He was appealing to the "nationalist" aspirations in Quebec. That is nothing I fear for the future of Canada and Quebec's place in that future. That is because I have had the opportunity to better understand the sense Quebecers have about "nationalism."
Nationalism means something different in French than in English. In English it is more akin to country and statehood. In French it is more akin to place and space - it is more about an embedded culture...like the concept of polity being about a people without the technical legal or governance overlay about the word.
It would be too bad if Harper was only courting the Quebec nationalist sentiment in that context so he could get their votes. He would do more harm is that was his motive and to use any majority government he might lead as his power to "stand up to Quebec's demands."
That would show a further betrayal of Quebec without really ever appreciating what they really aspire and strive for within a diversity we call Canada.
With Dion's championing of the Clarity Act the old game of Quebec holding its political breath until father Ottawa gives in to their demands is dead. If Quebec, or Alberta for that matter, wishes to leave Confederation, the rules are clear. Have at 'er but the decision once taken will be irreversible.
Apologies again, Ken. I wasn’t suggesting you supported Quebec separation. Not at all. In my ham-handed fashion, I was saying that playing the separatist scare-monger card won’t help Harper’s lust for power.
ReplyDeleteI have lived and worked in Quebec, in Northern Ireland and in Israel where one government or another has kept the racial/ethnic/religious/political pot boiling so that they can paint themselves either as saviours or at least the guardians keeping the barbarians at the gates.
I think it’s fascinating to see how common a strategy this is despite its generally ineffectual – and sometimes suicidal¬ result.
Mulroney sold his soul and that of the Progressive Conservative party to the separatists in return for their support in ’84. When, as he planned all along, he delivered less than the separatists were promised or what they hoped for, Lucien Bouchard created the Bloc Quebecois and the rest is our sad, national history.
By pandering to the separatists, Mulroney did nothing for national unity. Quite the opposite. He ensured that a generation of Canadians/Quebeckers would grow up never knowing the benefits of a strong, united, bilingual, bicultural nation.
As a shallow demagogue very much in the Mulroney mould, Harper only sees Quebec as a source of votes and by extension a source of power. He couldn’t give a tinker’s dam about national unity or Quebec’s nationalist aspirations. Grabbing power is the end which justifies the use of any methods necessary to achieve it.
Fortunately, even the most self-deluded separatists must know by now that any Prime Minister, but especially one with such an us-and-them view of the country, is not the answer to their nationalist prayers.
Sadly, Harper seems to have surrounded himself with a coterie of Kool-Aid sipping yes-men who – despite all evidence to the contrary – think whipping up a storm of anti-Quebec sentiment in the West, all the while indulging the extremist separatist machinations of les nationalistes is the answer to the no-longer-progressive Conservatives’ lack of electoral success.
Robert,
ReplyDeleteAn insightful and articulate analysis. And let's not forget the constitutional quagmire that Rt. Hon. Mulroney put us through in his final years.
Sean
This country is clearly moving to the right and Harper's initial election proves this. He will get a majority nearing Mulroney's in 1984 without batting an eye.
ReplyDeleteRight Anon - Harper for Emperor and Maxime Bernier for Mini-Emperor. A winning ticket next election for sure.
ReplyDeleteThis country is not moving to the right.
ReplyDelete- Quebec flirted briefly with the ADQ and is now rejecting it's fringe nuttiness. The Charest Liberals are experiencing a huge swell of popularity.
- Red Tories and moderate Grits are entrenched in the Maritimes.
- Ontario is not going to soon forget the debacle of the Harris nonsense revolution and last time I checked, the McGuinty Liberals were back in.
- Manitoba re-elected a strong centrist NDP government last year.
- Saskatchewan elected the Sask Party, which I realize is a right-of-centre party, but it is one that is made up of former Liberals and PCs, and had to move significantly to the Centre to beat the NDP. Indeed, here one could argue that the NDP is so powerful in SK that only be forming a party out of people in the centre, right-of-centre, and right positions, could anyone defeat the ruling NDP. Certainly, the Liberal and Red Tory presence in this new party will keep it from veering to the right. I haven't heard of any crown corporations being sold, have you?
- Alberta just elected a centrist PROGRESSIVE Conservative government with strong Red Tory roots, a strong Red Tory voice in caucus, and a centrist premier.
- BC has a moderate Liberal government in office.
Not a single provincial government in this country is anywhere near the zealous Republican-style neo-conservatism of the Harper regime. Look at a recent study done by the Canada West Foundation! Western Canadians are moving to the centre!
We've seen the foibles of neo-conservatism in Thatcher's UK, Australia over the last few years, and of course, America under Bush. Canadians gave Harper a chance but put him on a short leash not because they trust or like him, but because they were royally pissed at the Liberals over the sponsorship scandal, and the Cons were the only other real option.
We gave the CPC an inch and they've taken a goddamn mile. And it'll soon be time for this Frankenstein experiment of this harmful right-wing government to end.
Sean
Sean;
ReplyDeleteI think those last two sentences some up my feelings about this Tory government, and also why I'm so disappointed at the Liberals for giving them that mile-long opportunity. The question I find myself asking though is "Where now?"
Layton's NDP strike me as a farce, their policies are simply a different aspect of the blame game that the conservatives play. The cons lay the blame for society's woes on the lazy poor, the NDP on the lazy rich.
The Greens were a viable choice at one point but I can't get over my disgust at May, her sycophantic relationship with Dion, and her negative campaigning style ("vote for anybody but Harper" is not a campaign strategy that resonates out here in the West where we voted pretty much overwhelmingly for the guy, okay?)
Being in Alberta, I can't vote for the Bloc, though looking at some of their policies almost tempts me to try anyway. And most of the other parties are just too bloody extreme in one way or another.
I almost find I'm hoping there's a rhino candidate in my riding. At least they campaign on "Here's why you should vote for us" rather than everybody elses "Here's why you shouldn't vote for them" I'm sick of choosing the lesser of 4 evils.
I agree that aside from its separatist bent, the Bloc often articulates some very intelligent and moderate policies. In some ways, the Bloc is the inheritor of the Red Tory tradition. I mean, think about it, its founding members were all disaffected PCs, some were even PC ministers.
ReplyDeleteIt is Dion's choice on whether or not to call an election and he has had many opportunities to do so. Why? Because he is a weak leader and scared of certain defeat. It is that simple.
ReplyDelete