The latest Angus Reid poll putting the Alberta PCs in a second-place tie with the Liberals (25% each – ouch) will shake the confidence of the caucus and stir the cauldron of discontent that has been on a slow boil within the Stelmach government for some time now.
I have not seen the poll questions or actual results myself. I am commenting off newspaper reports. Jason Fekete wrote the front page blockbuster story and is a very good and reliable reporter. I have no reason to mistrust the facts he presents. There is always more intrigue in polling results when you take some time to dig a bit deeper. When I see the actual results I will do another post and put some political context around the numbers.
With apologies to Buffalo Springfield;” Something’s happening here? What it is ain’t exactly clear.” PC supporters must feel a bit like the day after the 1995 Referendum. The Quebec separatists lost with the thinnest of margins and Canada was “saved.” It was shocking and unnerving to many of us in the rest of Canada who realized, for the first time, how much public sentiment had shifted in Quebec.
That same unease and uncertainty is how I feel today as a progressive Albertan in the face of the Wildrose Alliance. How can it be that they are being seen as the only potentially “viable” political option in Alberta? The question of is what is happening here is quite frankly very clear.
Here is part of what I see happening politically in Alberta these days. The PCs are clearly past their best before date. They have been around too long. They are now well beyond being tired, stale and bland. They have proven to be inept and ineffective in too many instances and appear to be chronically maladaptive. Everyone in Alberta paying attention to politics knows, or at least, senses this.
The political and policy shifts by the Stelmach government have been disconcerting to many. It started with the vacillating responses to the Royalty Review, all through the last election and the humiliating third place showing in the Glenmore by-election and the fiasco that was Bill 44 and Bill 50. They all reinforce the growing sense of disdain by citizens towards their government. It is a government who is not listening and showing abject indifference to legitimate concerns and objections. The PC government’s disconnect with Albertans sees them now responding defensively, using threats, intimidation and belligerence as priority “governing principles” - just to keep people in line.
The Liberals and NDP are seen as insipid and uninspiring alternatives to the comatose Conservative regime. They are not perceived as a potential primetime government in waiting. The Greens have implode and disappeared in the most bizarre of circumstances. And that leaves the Wildrose as the only possible alternative to consider – at this time? Spare us please.
The ascendance of Danielle Smith on the political scene as been covered by the traditional media with an E-Talk! level of celebrity-centric perspicacity. So much more needs to be known and understood about the Wildrose Alliance and in particular their social and environmental policies, principles and values. We don’t even know if they have people who would be the kind of candidates with character and qualities worthy of our consent to be governed.
This Angus Reid poll shows a dramatic spike in Wildrose Alliance “popularity.” It says little, if anything, about them however. It is not very relevant to the fortunes of the Wildrose Alliance in the larger political scheme of things. At least not now given that we are so far away from any chance of a general election, currently expected in March 2012. It does, however, speak volumes about the shortcomings and disenchantment Albertans have for the other provincial political parties.
Bottom line – the Angus Reid outcome is an opinion poll. It is not a statement about a deeper judgment that citizens have to make about who will govern us when an election is actually looming. My sense is most of the Wildrose Alliance support in this poll is about sending a message to the other parties. The message is that they are not doing the job rather than a positive choice in support of the WAP. If you added an option in this poll for “None of the Above” I’m betting they would end up being be the most popular party in Alberta today.
So take a Valium Alberta. And in the meantime you better dust off your citizenship and park your political indifference and cynicism. They are luxuries you can no longer afford. If you don't re-engage as informed and involved citizens and WAP forms the next government you will be delegating decisions to fundamenalist, traditionalist and social conservative values throw-backs of a bygone era. Indifference means those people will get elected and they will be making all the political and value choices for and about you, your life and your liberties.
Govern yourselves Accordingly Alberta!
"fundamentist"
ReplyDeleteIs this a variant of fundamentalist?
You should see if you can't arrange a tete-a-tete with Danielle, Ken, since that might serve to better inform your conclusions about her.
Thx Brian - appreciate the correction. I think she is a very progressive person from online direct contact I have had. I attended the WAP leadership convention too. I did a social media workshop for the party then as you will recall. I was impressed by her presentation abilities.
ReplyDeleteI think her self-labelling as a social libertarian is a curtain and a shield to hide meaning. I also think the social conservative element in the WAP will not go away quietly or easily. If they stay and grumble is one thing. If they split off is another. Either way the history of these parties are part of what they are all about. They try to divert attention but thoughtful Albertans will not be fooled.
The nurturing of Danielle in the embrace of the Fraser Institute alone is enough to make me very concerned about the traditionalist top down, command and control approach to governance. The fear and distrust of diversity and difference in people also is part of the history of these parties.
I have not the time or energy not to go into mre detail about environment and social policy as well as role of government etc.
Alberta can do so much better than what any of the parties we have these days is offering us - and we must do so much better too.
Danielle Smith is not progressive. She wants to delist abortion, which is an anti-abortion policy (let rich women buy abortions and let poor ones die from using coat hangers). She is a denier of anthropogenic global warming, according to a recent newspaper article. Not progressive.
ReplyDeleteWell the Wildrose describes itself as a right wing party, why would Danielle be a left wing progressive?
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see what sharks move in on the WAP, who the secret campaign donors are, and who is inching towards the door from the PCs now that it looks like WAP may gain some power. I agree with you that the party of choice is probably "none of the above".
ReplyDeleteMaybe it is time to start moving a referendum issue ahead to have electoral reform and a made in Alberta plan for proportional representation on the ballot at the next provincial election. The next election may also be a great opportunity for independents.
I am looking forward to your analysis of the data. This is only decided voters, how many undecided are out there would be interesting to know. And this poll is out of date now. The PCs could still pull this out of the fire once they decide who and what they are. They need a ChangeCamp.
It really is too bad that the Alberta Green Party isn't on the provincial political landscape anymore. Having another non-mainstream party also available for people to consider may have given a different poll result. Lost opportunity there.
I consider myself a conservative, and a progressive, but I detect a high level of equivocation in the WAP camp. Thier notions of a more laissez-faire approach to governance, even in the face of recent history, will make Alberta a very difficult place to live. It will mean everyone will have to fend for themselves. A shift that will see Alberta move away from community development to gated communities.
ReplyDeleteBorrowing in part from a phraise that U.S. Senitor Hugh Scott once said that got under the skin of former President Johnston-- Bill 44 and Bill 50 is evidence of an instability of ideas, a floating series of judgements, that have produced policies of unmitigated equivocation that quell the chance for anything better to come forward.
ReplyDeleteMs. Smith and the WAP got to this point of popularity with Stephen Carter directing the ship.
ReplyDeleteThe polls shows the results of his handling and guidance to the center. Now that he's gone, look for a sharp turn to the right, as Ms. Smith is led increasingly by some very right folks and ideas.
The cloak is coming off, and many of the people who put their hopes into the up-until-now empty vessel that was the WAP, will start rethinking their support.
Progressive Albertans... now is our chance to get off our arses and come together. It might be now or never. Drop our partisan labels (and pride over names) and work together under one umbrella.
I've been a Liberal in Alberta all my life, always in the political wilderness. Finally the conservative people are doing what they did in 1993 on the federal scene - splitting the vote. We will have the first chance in a generation at getting elected, thanks to the Wildrose!
ReplyDelete@ Berry Farmer. Stephen Carter was with the WAP barely 5 weeks, to give him credit for where the Party (which has been around for 7 years) is today, is really quite a stretch.
ReplyDeleteBut hey, if we are going to spin and stretch; how about this:
This poll was done right around the time of Carters resignation, maybe it means support went up due to his leaving.
Now, back to reality. The polls over the years will be up, down and all over the map. IMO many things have given us the current high; the Calgary Glenmore byelection; Danielle being elected leader and the fact that we are having so many meetings across the province.
Except for one small mention, the MSM has pretty much ignored the fact that we formed nearly 40 CAs in less than 8 weeks. The advertising and communication around this activity will raise the level of awareness and could be in part what caused this spike.
Will it be sustained? Personally, I doubt it. We will see many highs and lows before we get to the one that really counts.
You continue to impress me with your wisdom and sound balanced sense of reality Jane. Thx for the comment.
ReplyDeleteI pretty much agree with Ken's suggestion that the WRA numbers in the recent poll are almost certainly a reflection of people saying "none of the above". The problem is that when the next election does roll around, there won't be a None Of The Above party running.
ReplyDeleteLet's look at the choices that are on the table today from the viewpoint of a progressive Albertan. The WRA would seem to be out of the question for the presumably obvious reason that the risk is too great that when the dust settles the WRA ends up to the right of where the PC party is today. I cannot imagine most progressives actually wanting to vote for the PCs in the next election especially after the slow motion train wreck that has been unfolding since the last election. The NDP would seem to be pretty far to the left for most progressives. That leaves the Liberals. Somehow, I just do not see the Liberal Party of Alberta forming the next government.
Since our electoral system does not allow negative votes, it pretty much goes without saying that progressives need a party to vote *FOR* in the next election and since none of the existing parties are viable alternatives, that would seem to leave one rather obvious choice - start a new party.
Suddenly, there doesn't seem to be all that much time left between now and the next election . . .
All credit for the popularity of the WAP goes to the leader.
ReplyDeleteLeaders lead. Advisors advise.
This is why Stelmach's a duck and Danielle's a darling.
Jane,
ReplyDeleteI concede your points and as I am not part of any inner circle, you would know better. Of course I am speculating. However, I stand by my opinion that Stephen Carter influenced the way Ms. Smith addressed the public. With him gone, I suspect those on the right will have more sway over her and those people who have been putting their hopes into the WAP will have reason to pause.
One thing we all agree on is that none of these polls make much of a difference... other than providing interesting fodder.
Actually Jane is wrong. The Wildrose Alliance has only existed since the beginning of 2008. The Alberta Alliance was formed in 2002 but no longer exists because of a merger. So basically this party has only existed a little under two years.
ReplyDeletePopularity for the Wildrose due to the leader? Ha, I would never vote for someone as extreme and uncompromisingly ideological as Smith. She's a train wreck just like Mario Dumont - lots of flash in the beginning and then one day: crash!
ReplyDeleteAnon at 11:22
ReplyDeleteThat's fine. Don't vote for her. But as of last week 39% of Albertans are voting for her and this number stands every chance of growing.
Now you can say how inaccurate polls are and how they don,t mean anything. That's fine too.
But, they are usually accurate to within plus or minus 5% and so even with a 10% margin of error, Darling Danielle has it. It is hers to lose. All she has to do is not screw up.
And with Ed being the master of screw ups, well, like I say, she has nowhere to go but up!
Smart politicians should be listening very closely to what the people are saying. Albertans are talking more than ever.
ReplyDeleteI think it is naive to assume that the policies and positions of the WRA or any other political party have been determined.
The time for a new direction in this Province has arrived. Change is inevitable. Albertans, for the first time in a long time, are engaged and debating politics and what the future should look like. Many for the first time.
Alberta and the West have so much potential and the future direction of this province is up in the air. Uncertainty is the only certainty at the moment. History has shown that uncertainty often unleashes human creativity and ingenuity.
I am very excited and looking forward to playing my small part!
‘The world hates change yet it is the only thing that has brought progress.’
— Charles F. Kettering
Alberta could have a long, dark future as a political wilderness. As Ken says, the PCs are well past their prime. Thinking Albertans will not fall into the trap of electing an extreme right party just because it seems like the only alternative. Liberals and NDs continue to turn people off because of their deplorable behaviour in opposition to the government.
ReplyDeleteThis, however, could be a golden opportunity for the right people to organize and make the PC party new again. There is little time left to do that, but it could happen.
(By the way, Ken 'distain' is the verb. The noun you likely meant to use is 'disdain.')
Cheers.
Thx for the comment and the editing too Clyde. I always appreciate both on this blog, especially the non-anonymous variety.
ReplyDeleteThere are a growing number of alternative approaches to the current political parties happining around Alberta, including trying to change them from within.
Get ready folks. Change is coming. Polls don't matter, only election night results and Danielle and the team are going to sweep into power. Folks are getting tired of the rhetoric coming from Ed and company. The Liberals and NDP's are more of the same polictical correctness gone a muck and people want someone to speak out for the private sector and the economy. The fiasco around climate change is finally coming to light as being nothing but wealth redistribution. The amount to legislation and rules being passed by all levels of government is out of control and we are losing our freedoms because of it. It is time for smaller government, less regulation, more individual freedom and choice and definitaely less tax at all levels. To quote a former Treasurer from this province, "we don't have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem!"
ReplyDeleteThe people of Alberta are grumpy. Everything and anything the government does is wrong or misguided.That is the nature of the beast. Things will turn around and the principle based Conservatives will return to favour. Our premier is solidly based on good values that will prevail.The current opposition is totally inefective and have no plausible solutions. People want a change but over time and when things improve they will return to the conservatives.
ReplyDeleteOur cold weather is not helping people feel better about the situation. The government is doing a lot of things right, time will demonstrate that. Have patiences the right party will prevail.
It's time for the Liberals, NDP and other socially responsible political entities to come together as the Alberta Progressive Party and let Rachel Notley go head to head with Smith in a vision war. That ought to provide some place for most Alberta votes to settle without the "baggage" of old party labels.
ReplyDeleteTo Anonymous above that suggests Rachel Notely go head to head with Danielle....That would certainly make for a clear choice. I don't think Alberta wants a Notely vision for our province. You would have an exodous of business until we would look something like Saskatchewan did before Brad Waqll came along.
ReplyDeleteMay we live in interesting times, not. To bad we don't have a choice.
ReplyDeleteThe challenges we have is reduced revenue, still high expectations, uninformed people ( my self included sitting on the outside looking in) a lack of effective freedom of information laws so that when decisions are made those decisions will be scrutinized .
This is not the case now and when people are unaccountable they make poor choices because they can.
The issue is not right wing, left wing , wing nut. The system has systematic flaws in it that need correcting and the only party taking about it ( or at least getting press ) is the Wild rose.
Last time when the province was like this Don Getty had stepped down and we had a choice between Kein and Decore.
Decore was talking reform and accountability and almost won the election. It was the only election I voted Liberal in because I like what the liberals then stood for. Decore had a vision. Right ,left or wrong he had a vision.
Right left or wrong the Wildrose seems to have a vision, the rest do not. So what next.
I asked Danielle at the leadership what the Wildrose was doing to attract the liberal minded into the party. That is a good question that still needs to be addressed.
For any party is a creature of those who make it up. If you do not want the Wildrose to be to right wing get involved. Help develop policy
Otherwise they will morph into the PC party like the federal conservative are morphing into a liberal light party. And will morph into a bunch of unaccountable s who we will then complain about and want to replace. Tweedledee and Dweeledum.
We need to make the system better than the guys running it. So it will be accountable to the people.
I have not been involved in anything for the past 3 years very frustrating as now one has a vision.
It is a shame that we are so leader orientated because a leader is only one person.
I would have liked to attend the recent get together in Red Deer but was questioned as to my so called right wing back ground and it was suggested I would not have feel at home.
Maybe that is the problem, if everyone things they are right and the rest are wrong ,It creates a The dialogue of the deaf.. You might have heard the old saying lets be reasonable and do it my way. Which of course is totally unreasonable.
We need to talk left right middle of the road and get Alberta working again. So people quit talking and start doing
David Fletcher
Change to what? A party that is long on rhetoric and short on policy. The Obama approach. Run a great campaign through the social media predicated on change...without the specifics. Need a great leap of faith to "trust me".
ReplyDeleteOh yeah ... no candidates. Lets wait to see what public opinion has to say once some of these critical areas are determined. Will they attract the loons from both right and centre or a full slate of credible candidates.
I would like to put my name down but unsure of what to put in the url part. I guess you can count me out as the social media darling.