LaPresse 8 avril 2007
Ken Chapman et Satya Das
Les auteurs dirigent Cambridge Strategies Inc, groupe-conseil albertain en politique publique.
The emergence of Mario Dumont and his autonomist agenda profoundly alters the traditional landscape of the Canadian federation.
In the middle of political uncertainty, the only certainty we have left is that we are all living on moving ground.
Yet this shifting terrain can be a place of some promise. Depending on the connotation and the meaning attached, the word autonomist can also be descriptive of Alberta – a desire for jurisdictional autonomy, in the context of a profound attachment to the idea of Canada.
In a sense, it is good that Quebec shifted away from deciding the old federalist versus separatist criteria. That division brought us close to sterility and futility. Any new channel of discourse, so robustly supported by Quebec voters, is preferable to the stalemate.
Even more interesting is the consensus among commentators that the rise of the ADQ reflects the politics of identity. If this is true, it has implications outside Quebec, in other parts of Canada where similar strains on traditional identity are very much a part of the social and cultural landscape.
Dumont’s ADQ tapped into the angst of rural and socially conservative Quebecers over accommodations around immigration, family values, distrust of elites and a fear of an erosion of francophone identity. Apart from francophone identity, these are resonant issues in Alberta as well.
Dumont’s campaign comments have been characterized as “a more prudent kind of nationalism” allowing him to play both sides of the federalist-separatist fence, yet his future depends on how an autonomist approach is elaborated in practice. If this is about demanding Ottawa respect provincial jurisdiction and a belief that strong provinces add to the strength of Canada, we are all for it. If it means isolationism, we are not!
We see Dumont today as a three-legged man. He has one foot with the federalists, one with the separatists and another planted firmly with Quebec’s social conservatives. Can the “real” Dumont sustain this stance for very long? He has to shift his political weight one way or another or he will risk looking indecisive and ill-defined as the inevitable next election looms large.
We expect the dynamics, timing, issues and even the outcome of the next federal election will have a lot to do with Quebec’s concerns as well. Harper clearly now needs a new “best friend” in Quebec. Jean Charest is not “the man” any more. Andre Boisclair is done, and never was in the running as Harper’s new best friend. Enter Dumont as the great Harper hope for a majority federal government—thanks to Quebec.
Dumont's support for Harper will come at a price in both dollar distributions and the devolution of powers to the province. He will force Harper to look fiscally like a profligate federal Liberal. Our guess is Harper will be bound and determined to buy Quebec’s “loyalty” no matter what it takes. Harper needs to “embrace” Quebec in order to win a majority government. The rest of Canada will not be amused and tensions will rise. Not an easy game for Harper to play but the recent federal Budget shows that every political soul has its price.
We live in uncertain times with minority governments in Canada and Quebec and with Ontario facing an election this fall. Alberta is at best a year away from an election and who knows what these elections will decide or how they will change the country.
Citizens all over Canada are expressing dissatisfaction about how they are being governed. Quebec is just the most recent and the most dramatic expression of this discontent. If this keeps up, we may have to declare that old fashioned command-and-control politicians a nationally endangered species.
Whether Dumont is the first of a new breed, or a repackaged version of an old-school politician, remains to be seen.
Showing posts with label Boisclair. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Boisclair. Show all posts
Sunday, April 08, 2007
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
How Will Harper Respond to the Changes in Quebec?
It is difficult to know what to make of the Quebec election results from way out here in Alberta. Understanding the implications for Canada is even more challenging. Here is what I think but I can assure you, we are now living on moving ground. The dynamics are so different that I feel know nothing for sure these days.
The pundit in me says that last night the electorate in Quebec sent a shot across Charest’s bow, sent a direct hit into Boisclair’s bow and let Dumont take a bow. It is a good sound bite but not helpful in understanding the implications of the Quebec vote last night.
So where are we, after having had some time to sleep on the Quebec election? Well there will be a raft of recounts so we are not yet sure of the final result but the popular vote was a three-way tie notwithstanding the final seat results. That three-way vote split should not be forgotten because it has serious implications for any minority government which has a short fuse by definition. I expect the dynamic, timing and outcome of the next federal election will have a lot to do with determining when the next Quebec election will happen and what it will be about.
The Quebec population shifted away from deciding who governs based on federalists and separatist criteria. It has not reverted to deciding government based on traditional left versus right criteria either. If you are to trust the observations on seasoned reporters from the province, the rise of the ADQ was more about identity politics and many Quebecers decided who to vote for mostly on that criterion. Dumont tapped the angst of rural and socially conservative Quebecers over accommodations around immigration, family values, and the distrust of elites and a fear of an erosion of the francophone identity. He also benefited significantly from the disenchantment of the old Liberal and spent PQ party hierarchies. Even as the second party Dumont is the undisputed winner from last night.
M. Dumont’s campaign comments have been characterized as “a more prudent kind of nationalism” allowing him to play both sides of the federalists-separatist fence. This so-called “autonomist” approach is repackaged sovereignty association to my mind. If it is about demanding Ottawa respect provincial jurisdiction and that strong provincial governments add to the strength of Canada, I am all for it. We shall have to wait and see what he means by an “autonomist” Quebec.
I see Dumont today as a three-legged man. He has one foot with the federalists, one with the separatists, and another planted firmly with the social conservatives of Quebec. Can the “real” Dumont stand up in this situation for very long? Time will tell but he has to shift his political weight one way or the other, sooner than later, or else he will look indecisive and ill-defined.
Harper clearly now needs a new best friend in Quebec. Charest is not “the man” any more. Boisclair is likely on his way out and never was in the running for Harper’s new best friend in Quebec anyway. Enter Dumont as the great Harper hope for victory in Quebec. Dumont's support for Harper will come at a price in both dollars and devolution of powers to the province. He will force Harper to spend and look like a profligate Liberal who is bound and determined to buy Quebec for power and peace, no matter what it takes. The last budget is a mere foreshadowing of this Quebec-centric spending spree Harper will have to embrace to win a Quebec based majority government I expect. The rest of Canada will will not be amused and tensions will rise.
Dumont’s Quebec base is also the old time-religion type so-cons that are reminiscent of the original western Reformers. That is a group that brought Harper to minority status but who he has abandoned as of late. Consider their growing disenchantment withHarper and his "set up" loss on the SMS vote, his reversals on Income Trusts, and the recent giveaway budget to Quebec. He is now seen as being all about a quest for personal power and abandoning the very principles that got him elected party leader and Prime Minister in the first place.
This means that the Dumont demands of Harper will force him to say one thing in Quebec and another in the ROC if his romancing of Dumont is going to work to win Quebec as the means to a CPC majority. Not an easy game to play.
We live in uncertain times with minority governments in Canada and Quebec now, and with Ontario on its way to the polls this fall. Alberta is a year away from an election too. Who knows what those elections will decide.
Citizens all over the country are expressing dissatisfaction about how they are being governed. Quebec is just the most recent and most dramatic expression of this discontent. If it keeps up we may have to declare old fashioned politicians as endangered species all over Canada. That may be a good thing come to think of it.
The pundit in me says that last night the electorate in Quebec sent a shot across Charest’s bow, sent a direct hit into Boisclair’s bow and let Dumont take a bow. It is a good sound bite but not helpful in understanding the implications of the Quebec vote last night.
So where are we, after having had some time to sleep on the Quebec election? Well there will be a raft of recounts so we are not yet sure of the final result but the popular vote was a three-way tie notwithstanding the final seat results. That three-way vote split should not be forgotten because it has serious implications for any minority government which has a short fuse by definition. I expect the dynamic, timing and outcome of the next federal election will have a lot to do with determining when the next Quebec election will happen and what it will be about.
The Quebec population shifted away from deciding who governs based on federalists and separatist criteria. It has not reverted to deciding government based on traditional left versus right criteria either. If you are to trust the observations on seasoned reporters from the province, the rise of the ADQ was more about identity politics and many Quebecers decided who to vote for mostly on that criterion. Dumont tapped the angst of rural and socially conservative Quebecers over accommodations around immigration, family values, and the distrust of elites and a fear of an erosion of the francophone identity. He also benefited significantly from the disenchantment of the old Liberal and spent PQ party hierarchies. Even as the second party Dumont is the undisputed winner from last night.
M. Dumont’s campaign comments have been characterized as “a more prudent kind of nationalism” allowing him to play both sides of the federalists-separatist fence. This so-called “autonomist” approach is repackaged sovereignty association to my mind. If it is about demanding Ottawa respect provincial jurisdiction and that strong provincial governments add to the strength of Canada, I am all for it. We shall have to wait and see what he means by an “autonomist” Quebec.
I see Dumont today as a three-legged man. He has one foot with the federalists, one with the separatists, and another planted firmly with the social conservatives of Quebec. Can the “real” Dumont stand up in this situation for very long? Time will tell but he has to shift his political weight one way or the other, sooner than later, or else he will look indecisive and ill-defined.
Harper clearly now needs a new best friend in Quebec. Charest is not “the man” any more. Boisclair is likely on his way out and never was in the running for Harper’s new best friend in Quebec anyway. Enter Dumont as the great Harper hope for victory in Quebec. Dumont's support for Harper will come at a price in both dollars and devolution of powers to the province. He will force Harper to spend and look like a profligate Liberal who is bound and determined to buy Quebec for power and peace, no matter what it takes. The last budget is a mere foreshadowing of this Quebec-centric spending spree Harper will have to embrace to win a Quebec based majority government I expect. The rest of Canada will will not be amused and tensions will rise.
Dumont’s Quebec base is also the old time-religion type so-cons that are reminiscent of the original western Reformers. That is a group that brought Harper to minority status but who he has abandoned as of late. Consider their growing disenchantment withHarper and his "set up" loss on the SMS vote, his reversals on Income Trusts, and the recent giveaway budget to Quebec. He is now seen as being all about a quest for personal power and abandoning the very principles that got him elected party leader and Prime Minister in the first place.
This means that the Dumont demands of Harper will force him to say one thing in Quebec and another in the ROC if his romancing of Dumont is going to work to win Quebec as the means to a CPC majority. Not an easy game to play.
We live in uncertain times with minority governments in Canada and Quebec now, and with Ontario on its way to the polls this fall. Alberta is a year away from an election too. Who knows what those elections will decide.
Citizens all over the country are expressing dissatisfaction about how they are being governed. Quebec is just the most recent and most dramatic expression of this discontent. If it keeps up we may have to declare old fashioned politicians as endangered species all over Canada. That may be a good thing come to think of it.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Big Changes Coming in Quebec Tonight
On February 19th my posting asked “Could the Week of March 20-26 Change Canada.?” I was out by one day when the federal budget came out on the 19th. The Quebec election was not yet set for the 26th but I got that date right at least.
It is interesting to reflect on what I thought then and what has happened since. I predicted the Cons budget “…is going to be as bountiful for Quebec as you can imagine…and designed to ‘ensure’ a Charest victory.” Truer words were never spoken, except it did not work for Charest and Harper!
My intuition on February 19th was Dumont would be the big political winner out of the election when I predicted “…that Dumont and the ADQ are going to spoil the party for Charest and Harper. He is not going to win but he is going to be the winner. Quebecers like to make favourable federalist deals but they don’t like to be bought off overtly nor played for fools.” That has proven to be true too.
I said then “It is going to be a fundamental and future changing week for Canada, never mind the shenanigans of Harper and Charest. My guess is Quebec will take the money, Charest will win, the PQ Boisclair will be a bust and told by his party to hit the road and Dumont will hold the balance of Quebec power at the end or the day.
Then I predicted Dion will force the federal election on the Harper Budget and the future of Canada as a nation will once again be at play. We will not have an election over the Budget but we may have it over the Cons environmental package - but I don’t see it happening now until the fall…and that is a good thing.
As for the Quebec election outcome tonight I have another "what if" scenario. Recent media reports attribute this insightful analysis to Pollster Jean-Marc Leger who said, “Essentially Quebecers want Mario Dumont as Premier, they want the Liberal team and they want the PQ platform put into effect.”
So true, but is that going to be the outcome? I think it is entirely possible that the Leger observation of what Quebecers want can become a reality. Consider if Dumont forms the minority government and then the Charest team is in the catbird seat in supporting his minority government, then they can institute PQ policy. The PQ will be too are busy burying Boisclair by forcing a new leadership race. Quebec can have it all. The ADQ's real friends in the Harper government will be receptive because it can mean more CPC seats in Quebec. And Quebec can still have the luxury of using the tried and true referendum threats to extort more power and cash from Canada. Harper has already proven himself to be obliging to Quebec's perceived needs - even without extortion.
Quebecers have signalled through poll results that they are changing, and they want real change and they not prepared to be trifled with. A message is about to be sent in this election to the status quo federalists (read Liberals) and the status quo separatists (read PQ). The last time Quebecers decided to send a ballot box message that they wanted some real change was 1976 when they voted in the separatist government of Rene Levesque. It was a shock to the province and the nation because it seemed to happen out of nowhere particularly to those conventional wise men who thought tomorrow was a mere extension of yesterday. That made them blind to the signs of the serious change that was coming.
If the conventional wisdom today is correct that the two tired old-line parties are found to be wanting of trust and respect, it might just happen again. Are we seeing a sea-change in the politics of La Belle Province? What would be the consequences if the collective, but quite wisdom of Quebecers, decided today, impulsively and intuitively right at the polling station, and at the very moment of putting down their “X” they wanted once again to send a strong message to the "politics-as-usual" crowd?
What if Quebecers en masse decided the ballot question today was to reject the tired old line federalist-separatist lens of Quebec politics and they voted strongly for the ADQ, the so-called "third party?" Could we have an ADQ minority government emerge later tonight? It is as realistic as any other possible outcome under the current circumstances.
What ever the election outcome in Quebec today, some folks in the ADQ will be partying like it is 1976 again. All this in the face of a pending federal election of uncertain timing and outcome too. I smell real democracy and big time fundamental change in the air, not only for Quebec but for Canada too.
Fasten your seat belts Canada; we are flying into some serious turbulence no matter who wins the Quebec election.
It is interesting to reflect on what I thought then and what has happened since. I predicted the Cons budget “…is going to be as bountiful for Quebec as you can imagine…and designed to ‘ensure’ a Charest victory.” Truer words were never spoken, except it did not work for Charest and Harper!
My intuition on February 19th was Dumont would be the big political winner out of the election when I predicted “…that Dumont and the ADQ are going to spoil the party for Charest and Harper. He is not going to win but he is going to be the winner. Quebecers like to make favourable federalist deals but they don’t like to be bought off overtly nor played for fools.” That has proven to be true too.
I said then “It is going to be a fundamental and future changing week for Canada, never mind the shenanigans of Harper and Charest. My guess is Quebec will take the money, Charest will win, the PQ Boisclair will be a bust and told by his party to hit the road and Dumont will hold the balance of Quebec power at the end or the day.
Then I predicted Dion will force the federal election on the Harper Budget and the future of Canada as a nation will once again be at play. We will not have an election over the Budget but we may have it over the Cons environmental package - but I don’t see it happening now until the fall…and that is a good thing.
As for the Quebec election outcome tonight I have another "what if" scenario. Recent media reports attribute this insightful analysis to Pollster Jean-Marc Leger who said, “Essentially Quebecers want Mario Dumont as Premier, they want the Liberal team and they want the PQ platform put into effect.”
So true, but is that going to be the outcome? I think it is entirely possible that the Leger observation of what Quebecers want can become a reality. Consider if Dumont forms the minority government and then the Charest team is in the catbird seat in supporting his minority government, then they can institute PQ policy. The PQ will be too are busy burying Boisclair by forcing a new leadership race. Quebec can have it all. The ADQ's real friends in the Harper government will be receptive because it can mean more CPC seats in Quebec. And Quebec can still have the luxury of using the tried and true referendum threats to extort more power and cash from Canada. Harper has already proven himself to be obliging to Quebec's perceived needs - even without extortion.
Quebecers have signalled through poll results that they are changing, and they want real change and they not prepared to be trifled with. A message is about to be sent in this election to the status quo federalists (read Liberals) and the status quo separatists (read PQ). The last time Quebecers decided to send a ballot box message that they wanted some real change was 1976 when they voted in the separatist government of Rene Levesque. It was a shock to the province and the nation because it seemed to happen out of nowhere particularly to those conventional wise men who thought tomorrow was a mere extension of yesterday. That made them blind to the signs of the serious change that was coming.
If the conventional wisdom today is correct that the two tired old-line parties are found to be wanting of trust and respect, it might just happen again. Are we seeing a sea-change in the politics of La Belle Province? What would be the consequences if the collective, but quite wisdom of Quebecers, decided today, impulsively and intuitively right at the polling station, and at the very moment of putting down their “X” they wanted once again to send a strong message to the "politics-as-usual" crowd?
What if Quebecers en masse decided the ballot question today was to reject the tired old line federalist-separatist lens of Quebec politics and they voted strongly for the ADQ, the so-called "third party?" Could we have an ADQ minority government emerge later tonight? It is as realistic as any other possible outcome under the current circumstances.
What ever the election outcome in Quebec today, some folks in the ADQ will be partying like it is 1976 again. All this in the face of a pending federal election of uncertain timing and outcome too. I smell real democracy and big time fundamental change in the air, not only for Quebec but for Canada too.
Fasten your seat belts Canada; we are flying into some serious turbulence no matter who wins the Quebec election.
Monday, February 19, 2007
Could the Week of March 20 - 26 Change Canada?
UPDATE FEB 20
FINANCE MINISTER FLAHERTY ANNOUNCES TODAY THE FED BUDGET SPEECH WILL READ MARCH 19 - OK FINE...MAKE ME WRONG...BUT I STAND BY MY CONTENTION DURING THE WEEK OF MARCH 20 - 26 WE WILL SEE MORE PURE HACKERY DESIGNED TO PURCHASE QUEBEC "LOYALTY" THAT IT WILL MAKE CREDIT CARD FRAUD AT WINNERS LOOK LEGITIMATE.
There have been some very significant dates in the modern history between Quebec and Canada. The two referendums, the defeat of the Accords Charlottetown and Meech Lake, the FLQ Crisis and I rank the election of Rene Lévesque in 1976 as amongst the biggies.
Now we are poised for another one…the pending Quebec election speculated for March 26 as at the time of writing. The week of March 20 to 26th could be monumental for the future of the country.
On March 20 we are rumored to have a Federal Budget and 6 days later Quebec will elect a new government. Depending on the Quebec election outcomes Stephen Harper will do his best Charlie Chaplin staged pratfall and will cause a federal election to be called, perhaps by engineering the defeat of his budget.
That budget is going to be as bountiful for Quebec as you can imagine. The Mulroney CF-18 favoritism to Quebec is going to look like downright penury in comparison. Dion may be dancing with the devil Chrétien for political advice but Harper is siting at the feet of Mulroney, at least when George Bush is too busy to return phone calls because his is preoccupied with destroying American influence in the world.
Mark your calendars. March 20 Federal Budget and a give away to Quebec designed to “ensure” a Charest victory. All this for the feigned federalist forces (a.k.a the CPC election positioning for more Quebec seats). This will be the biggest news on Canadian television since Anna Nicole Smith’s death took Iraq and Iran off the 24 hour news cycle.
I have a sense that Dumont and the ADQ are going to spoil the party for Charest and Harper. He is not going to win but he is going to be the winner. Quebecers like to make favourable federalist deals but they don’t like to be bought off overtly nor played for fools.
Don’t under estimate Dumont. Back-of-the-packers have done rather well of late. Stelmach in Alberta, Dion in the Liberal leadership – even Stephen Harper was seen as a second rater until the RCMP thought they should announce their Income Trust investigation and helped Harper out in the 2006 election.
Quebec people do not like being played like cheap fiddles but they want change too. Hence Harper can utter a few choice words, like “fiscal imbalance” and “Quebec Nation” in the dying days of the last election. Harper did not even have to understand the words or the concepts behind them and he gets 12 Quebec seats. Not bad and not because they like Harper but because they wanted to send the Liberals a message…they could not be bought by cheap political tricks and they were humiliated by the implications of same in Adscam.
So come March 20…six days before Charest’s electoral D-day, Harper’s budget will offer a cornucopia of fiscal favours to Quebec and he will cozy up to Charest with so many promises it could only be described as fiscal promiscuity. Quebec will have to decide if it is only the price of their soul we are talking about or the fact of their soul.
It is going to be a fundamental and future changing week for Canada, never mind the shenanigans of Harper and Charest. My guess is Quebec will take the money, Charest will win, the PQ Boisclair will be a bust and told by his party to hit the road and Dumont will hold the balance of Quebec power at the end or the day. Then Dion will force the federal election on the Harper Budget and the future of Canada as a nation will once again be at play.
Bookmark your favourite iconoclastic Blogs and columnists for frequent reading that week. It is going to be fascinating.
Now we are poised for another one…the pending Quebec election speculated for March 26 as at the time of writing. The week of March 20 to 26th could be monumental for the future of the country.
On March 20 we are rumored to have a Federal Budget and 6 days later Quebec will elect a new government. Depending on the Quebec election outcomes Stephen Harper will do his best Charlie Chaplin staged pratfall and will cause a federal election to be called, perhaps by engineering the defeat of his budget.
That budget is going to be as bountiful for Quebec as you can imagine. The Mulroney CF-18 favoritism to Quebec is going to look like downright penury in comparison. Dion may be dancing with the devil Chrétien for political advice but Harper is siting at the feet of Mulroney, at least when George Bush is too busy to return phone calls because his is preoccupied with destroying American influence in the world.
Mark your calendars. March 20 Federal Budget and a give away to Quebec designed to “ensure” a Charest victory. All this for the feigned federalist forces (a.k.a the CPC election positioning for more Quebec seats). This will be the biggest news on Canadian television since Anna Nicole Smith’s death took Iraq and Iran off the 24 hour news cycle.
I have a sense that Dumont and the ADQ are going to spoil the party for Charest and Harper. He is not going to win but he is going to be the winner. Quebecers like to make favourable federalist deals but they don’t like to be bought off overtly nor played for fools.
Don’t under estimate Dumont. Back-of-the-packers have done rather well of late. Stelmach in Alberta, Dion in the Liberal leadership – even Stephen Harper was seen as a second rater until the RCMP thought they should announce their Income Trust investigation and helped Harper out in the 2006 election.
Quebec people do not like being played like cheap fiddles but they want change too. Hence Harper can utter a few choice words, like “fiscal imbalance” and “Quebec Nation” in the dying days of the last election. Harper did not even have to understand the words or the concepts behind them and he gets 12 Quebec seats. Not bad and not because they like Harper but because they wanted to send the Liberals a message…they could not be bought by cheap political tricks and they were humiliated by the implications of same in Adscam.
So come March 20…six days before Charest’s electoral D-day, Harper’s budget will offer a cornucopia of fiscal favours to Quebec and he will cozy up to Charest with so many promises it could only be described as fiscal promiscuity. Quebec will have to decide if it is only the price of their soul we are talking about or the fact of their soul.
It is going to be a fundamental and future changing week for Canada, never mind the shenanigans of Harper and Charest. My guess is Quebec will take the money, Charest will win, the PQ Boisclair will be a bust and told by his party to hit the road and Dumont will hold the balance of Quebec power at the end or the day. Then Dion will force the federal election on the Harper Budget and the future of Canada as a nation will once again be at play.
Bookmark your favourite iconoclastic Blogs and columnists for frequent reading that week. It is going to be fascinating.
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