Is Alberta Tired of Being Taken For Granted by Harper?

Susan Riley writes an interesting take on Liberal leader, Michael Ignatieff's possibilities in a forthcoming by-election in Calgary.  With the sudden and unexpected departure of Jim Prentice, the last progressive voice in the Harper government, there is a need for a by-election by May 2011.  There may be a general election before then but I doubt it will happen until the fall of 2011.  The Liberals should wait for Canadians to see the continuing failure of integrity the hardcore Harper Cons to live up to their fundamental political ideology. Harper's hypocritical character flaws will show again as he will retreat even further from what he touts as sound and conservative fiscal management in their upcoming budget.

Could Calgary send a message for the rest of Alberta in this by-election and elect a Liberal in protest to the indifference and disdain Harper has shown for his home province and his home city?  Harper has been increasingly estranged from Albertans ever since he got all that personal political power and his iron-fist control over everything that happens in the federal government.

Nenshi's election as Mayor last October give us hope.  He won handily over two variations conventional Conservatism. One rejected candidate was run by the Harper machine and the other had her strings pulled by the old Klein crowd.  Provincially there are now more Liberals elected in Calgary than in Edmonton and they used to call us Redmonton back in the day when that was reversed.  Stranger things have happened is all I am saying.

I am not making any political predictions but we know from our conjoint research last May that only 17% of Albertans are in any way satisfied with the way Alberta's federal MPs protect and promote our interests in Ottawa. That indicates changes could happen and a by-election that elects a Liberal is just the ticket to send Harper a much overdue "we are not amused" political message.

When Premier Klein was kicked out by the PC rank and file his "safe" seat was lost to a Liberal in a by-election.  Klein was a lot more popular in Alberta then than Harper can ever hope to be.  When Deputy Premier Stevens quit provincial politics, as quickly and mysteriously as Prentice, the by election that followed went to the Wildrose Alliance as a way to send Premier Stelmach a "we are not amused" political message.  The Liberal vote stayed the same but the protest vote went to the Wildrose Alliance in that by-election.

So stay tuned Alberta and consider the strategic opportunity to send a wake up call to the Harper-Cons in the   soon to be announced by-election.  And if there is a general election beforehand, the opportunity is even greater to ensure Alberta is not taken for granted by the presumptive arrogance of the Harper political machine that we are all mindless sheep without voting or political options.

Welcome to one small piece of the new narrative that is being written about the next Alberta by a revived sense of citizenship that is happening all over the province.

Harper has Become Tedious & Tiresome to Most Canadians

What is soon to be former Prime Minister Harper thinking saying he doesn't believe any taxes are good taxes. Jeffery Simpson's column in the Globe and Mail today puts that inanity in context.

Last week Mr. Harper went out of his way to take a moment of statesmanship coming out of the G8 and turn it into a cheap and mistaken partisan diatribe against his nemesis Michael Ignatieff. Harper is always quick to take a political shot regardless of accuracy in this case. His apology was clinical more than heartfelt.

He constantly misleads and misdirects media and public attention from the facts and serious issues of the day. He constantly changes political tack without personal tact. We have come to expect attach ads, cheap partisan shots, demagoguery and abuse disguised as "discipline" often applied to his caucus. Gamesmanship over governance is this man's default position as a political "leader."

We know we can't trust or believe him any more. The fact that this recent behaviour and character flaws only amount to a one day story shows just how much Canadians have tired of Harper and his bullying "style" Our experiment with minority government will likely end next election and hopefully Canadian voters will deliver us from this authoritarian autocrat.

It is time to return some respectful and capable leadership that is capable and committed to the greater public good and who sees government as a positive contributor to those ends. Today that is any federal party leader other than Prime Minister Harper.

Beware and Be Aware of the Political Back Story at the Calgary Stampede

The Calgary Stampede is in full swing and so is the political back story that happens concurrently with the midway, rodeo, pancakes, BBQ and bull riding. The Stampede time has a serious political dimension too. It is when the Alberta and Canadian political class converge on Calgary to party but also to position, plan and even posture a bit. The eastern political leaders like Ignatieff and Layton and May show ostensibly to show they value, "get" and embrace the west.

Many goofball pictures of out-of-character "city slicker" eastern politicians costumed up in in urban cowboy gear "grace" the pages of the newspapers and television newscasts over the years. Ironically no such picture as been so devastating as Calgary's own Stephen Harper for showing laughable unauthentic caricatures. My guess is shortly after that Harper hired a wardrobe and image consultant on the taxpayer dime.

Where politicians gather so will political consultants, lobbyists and various hangers-on and fast-track Wanna-Be's. The vast array of Stampede BBQ and breakfasts are meet and greet/grab and grin gabfests in the good old fashioned tradition of politics. There are other events that are more serious politically and they are mostly behind closed door meetings with, between and amongst the politicians go have made the pilgrimage to Calgary this week.

There are lots of private events and meetings with lobbyists and government relations consultants representing various special interests and politicians. But these meetings happen all the time and are simply part of Canadian political culture. Full disclosure, this is part of the work that I do professionally. I just never did it at the Stampede, at least not yet.

The more interesting political meetings will be the pure political events amongst politicians themselves. They are the joint Federal and Alberta caucus meeting and the Alberta Caucus Meeting on Monday. There are lots of Alberta-Canada complex political and critical policy issues in play between Ottawa and Edmonton. It seems, from an Alberta perspective, that there is no difference as to who is in power in Ottawa. Ottawa is still Ottawa even with a Conservative government in both jurisdictions. Shared partisanship seems to be irrelevant to finding effective resolutions on fed-prov issues and on US-Canada relations that impact Alberta.

In fact it is Michael Ignatieff, the Liberal, who seems more in tune and in touch with Alberta's aspirations. He is more informed and focused on our issues these days than Harper the Calgary Conservative. Will it make a difference in the forthcoming federal election? Who knows but Ignatieff's overt support for responsible oil sands development and insight into the Alberta angst and our importance to the country are being noticed in this province.

To be a fly on the joint Fed-Prov caucus meeting would be great fun. It would also be informative about where Harper sees his power and purpose in the months leading up to an inevitable election. Will we know what was said and what was the atmosphere in the room? Not likely. There will be media measured platitudes and strict speaking notes of having frank discussions and both sides having a better understanding of the issues and a mutual commitments to seek satisfactory solutions Blah, Blah, Blah.

The other critical political meeting that happens in Stampede week is the Alberta PC Caucus meeting. This is the real start of the next budget cycle. They get a serious sense of where things are at, what is happening in the province in a kind of SWOT analysis (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats). Some preliminary policy and political objectives are usually set at this caucus meeting. General guidelines are determined for the administration to start the next budget cycle and the next years fiscal/policy/planning process starts as a result of this PC Caucus meeting. The whole thing will start to gel at the Cabinet and Caucus retreats in the Fall when the administration comes back with their budget and policy suggestions for the government for the coming fiscal year.

So tomorrow the Alberta government process about the fiscal and policy planning for the province starts. Ever since the retreat from the royalty review recommendations, the province as become more and more strategically incoherent. Lets hope tomorrow they find their footing and start to figure out a consistent, comprehensive and comprehensible path forward for Alberta. It will not be easy in these uncertain time, but it will necessary for the people of this province to continue to enjoy a high quality of living in economic, social and environmental terms.

Poll Shows Harper Is In Trouble With Canadians

Nic Nanos, Canada’s most accurate political pollster says the Liberals are now neck and neck with the Harper Party (a.k.a. the Conservative Party of Canada). The national poll was done Jan 3-7 and is accurate3 to +/- 3.1 percent and shows the Liberals with 34% (up 4 points since Nov) and the Cons with 33% (up 1 point since Nov).

My how the mediocre have fallen. While Harper is leading in the “Who do you think will make the best PM ?” But he is stalled at 36%. Not good at a time when we are well into serious recession, deficits and other fiscal adjustment. These are things the duplicitous Mr. Harper insisted would not happen under his superior skills and an economist and fiscal manage.

On the other hand Michael Ignatieff has soared up 12% to 23% support as the best choice for PM and he has barely opened his mouth yet…except to warn Harper, rather forcefully and effectively, if he tries character assassination attack ads again, like he did on Dion, the response will be significantly different and undoubtedly harmful to the Cons.

The Cons have been in retreat on every political front since the Coalition came forth with an alternative game plan to run the country. Harper is moving through the various stages of grief since the lost opportunity of the election. Yes he lost. He was after a majority and could deliver it even though h e had all the trump cards and superior tactical skills on his side.

Here are the Five Stages of Grief and how Harper has been responding and coping.

DENIAL: Happened right after the election when he squandered the majority over $45m of culture cuts and lost Quebec in the bargain. Harper’s rhetoric as “We won. We have a mandate to govern.” In his heart, yes he has one; he was saying “This can’t be happening to me.”

ANGER: Here we saw the anger in the pettiness and partisanship in the FU Canada (Fiscal Update) statements where he tired to bankrupt the opposition political parties and refuse women human rights to pursue pay equity and take away public service unions right to strike. The anger in Harper’s heart came out as he tried to punish other people for his own shortcomings. He almost lost his government because his anger has clouded his judgment and impaired his capacity to govern.

BARGAINING: First he struck a bargain with the Governor General to prorogue Parliament just to save his political skin. Now he is into bargaining with and around the opposition parties as he tries to draft a stimulus budget. He has stuck a committee of independent advisers to help with the budget. By doing so, he as emasculated his own Cabinet and reduced their role from mute minion to meaningless munchkins. His rhetoric now s “We will do whatever it takes to get through these tough economic times.” His heart of hearts tells him it is OK to reverse your political and personal principles to sustain power. Never mind that we mislead and lied in the election. That was then. This is now. Keep power at all costs.

DEPRESSION: We have seen the early signs of depression with the appointment of 18 Senators. His prior commitment to not appoint any Senators until he got his senate reforms done is now in the integrity slag heap. He has given up on reforming the Senate and now only wants to pursue the perks of Prime Ministerial power while he has it. Senate reform is added to the pile of broken promises and past positions of the depressed and depressing Mr. Harper that grows daily. Now he sees that he can no longer trigger an election at his whim. That is now in Ignatieff’s power. Harper knows that he will wear the political consequences of this economic recession cum depression, how can Harper the superior economics, master tactician and political wunderkind. He is coming to realize that due to hubris, history will not be kind to President Bush nor Prime Minister Harper. Pretty depressing stuff to have to deal with, given the size of the Harper ego and the depth of his arrogance!

The last stage of grief is Acceptance. We have a ways to go in the Bargaining and Depression stages before that stage comes into play. But rest assured it Acceptance will happen. It will come right after he loses the next election and it will be manifest as Harper resigns the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada as a result.

Believing is Seeing in Politics and Life

The very quotable Marshall McLuhan once said “I wouldn’t have seen it if I hadn’t believed it.” We are all subject to this subjectivity and selectivity in how we allocate our time and attention and our opinions. We will also tend to ignore new information or contrary data that does not fit our preconceived notions, beliefs and opinions.

WARNING! This is a longer post than usual...so relax and reflect with me for a few minutes.

Reading Lorne Gunter’s column in the Edmonton Journal this morning gave me a chance to reflect on just how this can work. Lorne is a noted columnist of the “right” persuasion and a fan of conservative policy and ideology. When you read him you can clearly see that frame of reference. What was interesting me this morning was to consider what he sees when he looks at certain events and what he concludes from them given what we know about his political beliefs. This is not unique to Lorne. We all do it but we should all try to be aware of it and try to be open to other points of view. Especially if you are trying to run a country with a minority government.

The Conservatives think they unconditionally won the last election. But they do not have a majority and therefore have to learn to govern with a compromising consciousness. Unlike the last Parliament, they now have to accommodate enough opposition objectives or they risk defeat. This is a bitter pill for Harper to swallow. His recent FU Canada (Fiscal Update) showed that he not only gagged on the bitter pill of policy compromise and political accommodation, he damn near choked on it. As a result he enabled and emboldened a Liberal–NDP coalition that was ready, willing and able to defeat and replace him. Harper cut and ran to the Gov Gen and begged her to prorogue Parliament to avoid a non-confidence vote he was destined to lose.

In that context I read the Gunter’s piece and about what he sees and seems to believe about Ignatieff and the coalition. To reinforce McLuhan’s comment, I offer some of my own believing is seeing observations on the same issues and events. I too have a filter and a lens through which I view the world. Go figure.

THE COALITION IS DEAD! LONG LIVE THE COALITION!
Lorne’s piece invites us to “…assume the coalition is dead (and 99.9 percent is)” and that “...Ignatieff is keeping the possibility of a coalition alive rhetorically because without the threat of the coalition toppling the Tories…the Liberals’ bargaining position would be greatly weakened.” “It is not…in Ignatieff’s interests over the next three to six months to keep the collation alive.”

It seems both wishful and wistful thinking to invite us to assume the coalition is dead. There is still a signed agreement outlining it terms and conditions of the coalition and how it would operate. In that sense it is very much alive and full of political potential. Its sole purpose is to be a threat to topple the Tories, and then govern, if necessary. If the Tories don’t govern like a respectful minority government there will be a non-confidence vote to turf them. The coalition may not form the next government as a result of defeating the Tories. What if the GG decides there should be an election instead? Given that possibility, the coalition is hardly a "power grab" by some opposition political leaders as Harper's hype would try to sell us.

Besides, this possibility of a coalition is exactly how our parliamentary system of government works. It is not a sinister plot by Ignatieff and Layton. It is their duty as opposition to keep testing and trying the government. So keeping the coalition alive, even if it is in hibernation for the winter, is very much in Igantieff’s best interest in his duty to keep the government on it toes or to cut the toes off if they cross the line.

IGNATIEFF IS TOO AMERICAN TO LEAD CANADA!
Lorne implies Ignatieff is more American than Canadian referencing a “…old New York Times column championing American empire and referring to ‘we’ Americans."

My gosh how defensive can you get? Ignatieff has returned to Canada, run for a party leadership, coming in second, and the successfully ran for parliament and is now the interim leader of choice of the Liberal Caucus and party elite. Besides he has already effectively responded to the context of such “we” American slurs in subsequent essays and interviews. In the globalized reality and our closeness to the Americans, one would think Ignatieff's education, expertise, international and first-hand American experience would be an asset. Surely it ought not disqualify him from Canadian politics.

This is typical and tired Conservative rhetoric akin to American Republican Karl Rovarian tactics. If anyone has been American in their approach to governing Canada it has been Stephen Harper. His foreign policy and economic policy totally aligned with the Bush White House. This is well documented. His adoption of a presidential style of leadership is also renown, even to the point he now speaks to us on policy issues and events through a Press Secretary, just like President Bush.

IGNAGIEFF SEEMS TO ACCEPT QUEBEC AS A SEPARATE NATION!
Lorne suggests Ignatieff will “…have to live down his signature on the coalition agreement.” The reason is because the “…first line talks about the coalition begin in the best interests of ‘Canada and Quebec,’ as if the two were separate nations already.”

Interesting admission that there is an actual coalition agreement that exists don’t you think? So lets deal with the merits of the comment. Stephen Harper set up his last election run by publicly acknowledging “Quebec as a nation.” He also said, contrary to all the evidence, that there was a “fiscal imbalance” against Quebec’s interests within Canada and that he would resolve it as Prime Minister. Both of these are soft-nationalists hot buttons and have been used for political pandering purposes for decades, all the way back to Mulroney at least.

Cynical political opportunism was at the root of Harper’s pandering to Quebec in this way. By the way, Harper conveniently ignores the historical fact that he came into federal politics through the Reform Party. Reform started as a political force partly in reaction to such federal government pandering to Quebec.

The Reform Party had a platform plank about too much political control in central Canada. The Reform mantra Harper also espoused was “The West Wants In.” He actually fans the flames of separation in Alberta every time he does this Quebec pandering. His recent political tactics toward Quebec have had that effect in Alberta recently.

Ironically Harper was one of the signatories to the famous Alberta Firewall Letter encouraging Premier Klein to extricate Alberta from some core Canadian policies and programs. Talk about living down signatures and engaging in political opportunism! Harper’s name comes up more often than anyone else’s in recent history if those are your criteria for criticism.

WE NEED TO BECOME MORE POLITICALLY AWARE AND MORE MEDIA LITERATE
There more. But my point is Lorne’s lens focuses on issues and events but only in a certain context. We all do this and it is our right to speak out in a free and democratic country. What citizens need to be aware of and careful about is taking some time to get more media literate.

As traditional media’s effectiveness and even its viability is being threatened by fragmentation, competition and recession, its capacity to gather and give us the news is diminished. The Internet’s influence as a news source is growing. According to Pew Research, it is ranked and the #2 new source now, behind TV and ahead of newspapers.

If the Web is now a significant news source, where will the authoritativeness and authenticity of the “reporting” we can trust come from? How will we know we can trust and believe news and information when we actually see those items that capture our time and attention? Who will help us understand what is important and critical versus what is trivial and superficial? How will know if something we see, hear or read is just misleading spin or pure and dangerous propaganda?

We all have more data and information than we can handle. Where will the wisdom come from to help us make sense of all those inputs? How will we be able to put it all into a meaningful context in ways that creates some useful knowledge that we can believe in if and when we see it?

Beats me! Anybody out there got any ideas?