Canada at 150 On-Line Interviews With Ignatieff, Guilbeault and Das

Here is a 14 minute clip of streamed interviews done by the Canada at 150 on-line host Randy Boissenault with Michael Ignatieff, Steven Guilbeault and Satya Das.

http://can150.ca/day-2-randy-interviews-michael-ignatieff-steven-guilbeault-and-satya-das/

This is the kind of new media communications that can be done that speaks directly to citizens, interests groups and party members.  These interviews are a combination of traditional media interview techniques but  directly to an online audience that can be real time but also archived and accessed later - or shared within others by redistributed linking like I am doing here. 

All this enhances connectivity, authentic communications directly with citizens so they can engage at their conveience.  The chance to comment and share the information further on Twitter and Facebook means that more people will have access and becasue of a personal recommendation, they are more likely to become part of the Netizen approach to modern democratic participation. 

If you don't have 14 minutes to watch this now, bookmark this blog post and come back to it.  Of course I would appreciate your comments on the content directly on this blog.  It is all part of the emerging political and public policy conversation around how Canadians better understand the challenges we are facing.

Conversations are game changers.  We all know we need to change politics to be less about games and more about change...in both Canada and Alberta

Rick Mercer on Election "Fever"

What is the world coming to when only our satirists make sense anymore? Rick Mercer proves that point in this perceptive piece in the Globe and Mail today.

The EKOS poll of Sept 24 has some interesting results. I think the increase of the Cons support and the decrease of the NDP support revolves around the fact Canadians do not want an election now. The flat Liberal support in the face of the declaration that they will no longer prop up the Harper government means that they will now be acting like a true opposition. No longer will the Liberals be saying how insufficient and ineffective the government is and then voting for their policies to avoid an election.

The Cons level of commitment to their party is based on the sense that this next election is the last great hope for Harper to get a majority. If he fails to do that, the long knives will be out amongst the party elites and the base will stay home. The push to redistribute the House of Commons seats this fall will add seats in Alberta, BC and Ontario. Harper will pander to people there this election. It will not be as much as he pandered to Quebec last election but he has to bolster his base in BC and Alberta and grow in Ontario to get a majority.

The real and seriously under reported story of this poll is the level of uncommitted, and soft commitment levels. The hype on the Cons level of commitment is part of the total of 7% of all Canadians who are strongly committed to a party at this time. The Con supporters who are committed true believers are no more committed than Liberals, NDP or Greens, there are just slightly more of them in the 7% total for the country. That is no reason to leap to calling an election result.

The facts are that 27% are not committed, and 67% are moderately or loosely committed. That means 2/3 of Canadians are swing voters. This means the voter is volatile and in a vile mood. Call an early and unnecessary election at your peril Mr. Layton. Pander to regionalism and prefer stimulus funds to your pals in Conservative ridings at your peril Mr. Harper. Be passive aggressive and vaguely defined at your peril Mr. Ignatieff. As for Ms. May, just get into the House of Commons next election and you win.

Mr. Harper, Your Time is UP!

So the Federal Liberals have their political mojo back and are ready to be a political party and a political force once again. The key message from Michael Ignatieff coming out of the Liberal Caucus meeting this week is "Mr. Harper, your time is up!" Yes it is and it is about time too!

The Liberals are back, they have some buck and bravado to boot. So will we have a fall election? That depends on Jack Layton all of a sudden. The NDP have to shed their sheep's clothing of the past 4 years and now have to stifle their sanctimony. They loved to talk about how they were "consistently" not supporting the Harper government as if that was some symbol of political integrity. It was pure positioning and political opportunism, and a safe bet because of how weak an unprepared the Liberals were to face another election. But that was then and this is now.

Layton met privately with Harper recently. I am sure they are working on a deal to prop up Deceivin' Stephen for a while longer. Harper is hoping to buy some time by doing some Dipper pandering. He want to give the economy time to really turn around so his Con Artists can take credit for it. Layton will trade an early election for regulated credit card rates. Harper will give him an all-party committee to study the issues like with EI!

This gamesmanship is not new for Harper or Layton. Layton cut a deal to prop up Martin' s minority and even had the nerve to claim the Martin budget as an NDP budget in the bargain. Hyperbole and histrionics are part of the political game but Layton can go overboard. Harper was cutting a deal with the Bloc a few years back to force the non-confidence vote to defeat the Martin government. So Harper has proven that he will even hop into bed with separatists for the purposes of gaining personal political power. Old-time Reformers (are there any other kind?) must be fuming at the prospects of a repeat of that possibility.

So we have had at least two recent and really unnecessary elections - both caused by Mr. Harper's hubris. First, when he defeated the Martin minority when Canadians had just elected it. We were insisting we wanted our politicians to learn to work together for the good of the country. That was our political agenda in electing a minority government. But that was not the goal of Deceivin' Stephen. He cut a deal with the separatists and pushed us to the polls.

The next unnecessary and unwanted election was the last one. That was when Harper was too scared to face the House of Commons. Instead he shut down Parliament and prorogued the House then slithered off to ask the Gov Gen for an election. That too was and election that nobody wanted and to prove our discontent, we stayed home from the polls in record numbers.

Now Deceivin' Stephen is saying, rather sanctimoniously, that he "...hasn't met a single Canadian who's saying they want to see an election right now." As if that matters to him as some kind of foundational principled way that he stands by. The last two unnecesasry election were one that he caused. We didn't want or need them but that did not matter to Harper because he was on a mission to gain absolute personal political power.

So will we have an election this fall? Ask Jack Layton. It is in his hands right now. After the Bloc news conference today we may also see a different scenario emerging. Will Duceppe try to take the stage as the primary prop manager to keep the limp and languishing Harper government afloat? What price will we have to pay and what is Harper's price? What will he pay to Jack and/or Gilles to retain the Hill and preseve his personal political power?

The only federal party that will be talking to, for and about Canadians now will be the Federal Liberals. All the rest of them will be in back rooms "cutting up the cash" as Lyin' Brian used to say.

Remember when Mulroney was one of Harper's mentors and role models? Harper officially shunned Mulroney politically when he finally had to fulfill his promise to call the inquiry into the Mulroney/Schreiber affair. Speaking of cutting up the cash, Mulroney proved to be pretty good at that all by himself as he admitted in his inquiry testimony.

The next election is inevitable, it is only a matter of time. One thing for sure Harper's time is up! It is time for Canadians to shun Deceivin' Stephen just like he did over the Schreiber Affair and just Canadians did to Lyin' Brian in the 1993 election leaving his majority government with only 2 seats.

With some luck and an informed, activist and engaged citizenry maybe we can get back to some peace, order and good government with a Liberal majority. the only way to get it done is with an election So let's get on with it! Over to you Jack - or Gilles! What do you say?

Liberal Jim Wachowich Not Running in Edmonton Centre

My info is Jim Wachowich is not going to seek the Federal Liberal nomination for Edmonton Centre in the next election. He ran last time but not the next time. Mary MacDonald is eager and knocking on doors already. Will the Anne McLellan election machine reinvigorate and make the difference this time? Many Edmonton Centre Liberal supporters stayed home under Dion. Will new leadership bring them back?

Harper has forgotten and ignored Alberta and especially Edmonton. His Reform base thinks with Conservatives like Harper who needs a Liberal party? I expect many True Blue Tories, a.k.a Reform/Alliance types, will stay home this time to send Harper a message.

If I am right Edmonton Centre is once again up for grabs.


Anne McLellan in the Natural Resources portfolio in the Chretien government helped kick start the oil sands. Ignatieff gets the importance of oil sands development to the province and the country. He has back away from a carbon tax and supports Alberta's efforts at carbon capture and storage. He also calls for more investment in technology for the ecologically responsible continued development of the oil sands.


I'm still convinced we are into a winter 09 election. Will Alberta elect two new voices to Ottawa this time and send the complacent HarperCons a message? Linda Duncan and Mary MacDonald are the perfect candidates to accomplish both objectives? Here's hoping.

U.K. Repatriates a Former Resident - Not Even a Citizen - from Gitmo! Omar Khadr - a Canadian Citizen - Still Rots

The U.K. expect the return of a Gitmo prisoner on Monday. This prisoner is not even a British citizen and was only a former resident of England but the U.K. government has been lobbying for his release and return to the U.K. since 2007


Omar Khadr is a child soldier and Canadian citizen who has been in Gitmo for a third of his life and our Prime Minister Stephen Harper could care less. Michael Ignatieff used some of his airport hanger time meeting with President Obama last week to bring up Omar's case. At least somebody in our government cares about the rights of Canadian citizens incarcerated in foreign prisons.


What is wrong with this picture? Pray you never get imprisoned in a foreign jurisdiction and tortured while Stephen Harper is still Prime Minister. This is not the first time this has happened. Just ask Maher Arar.

Obama's Ottawa Visit Marks the Beginning of the End of Stephen Harper.

I have been swamped this week and no time to post and frustrated because there is so much going on, both in my world and the rest of the world.


I wanted to share some preliminary observations on the Obama visit in a political and policy context. I will be doing a much more extensive analysis on events and implications over the week end and distributing it to the Cambridge Strategies subscriber list early next week.


The bottom line is there were no surprises coming out of the Obama visit. It really was so short and frantic time-wise that it has to be more of a pit stop than a State Visit. There was the usual commentator gushing coming from the MSM. They picked up on the human interest angle more than the politics or policy pronouncements, which while preliminary, were potentially profound. More on that next week but infotainment seems to be the default position of MSM these days.

I think the Ottawa visit was, from a Washington perspective a dress rehearsal for logistics and security when Obama travels overseas on more serious trips. I think Obama’s advance team used Harper as a shill to test out their Presidential travel and protection procedures in a very safe place like Canada. The meeting between leaders was abbreviated orchestrated and the new conference looked like they were filling time with homilies and platitudes.

Policy substance was hinted at but it was diverted into future “dialogues” to happen between officials. On the personality side it was good to see Obama extend his time with Harper to 90 minutes from an hour and with Ignatieff to 35 minutes from the 15 minutes the PMO allocated.

Typical shabbiness from the PMO to delegate the Obama –Ignatieff time to the hospitality of a hanger at the airport - but that is just what we have come to expect from the hyper-partisan Prime Minister Harper.


The new secret weapon Canada has on the diplomatic front is Governor General Michaelle Jean. Obama seems to be most comfortable and communicative with her and why not given the symbolic between them.


My sense is the Obama visit is the beginning of the end of Harper politically. The perfunctory visit to Canada that was a dress rehearsal for more serious international visits is one thing but I sense Obama’s advance team sized Harper up as a waste of time. He is in a weak and weakening position politically, an acolyte of the Bush White House and will only pay lip service to Obama’s progressive agenda.


The world orienting story and grand narrative changed when Obama got elected. Harper is lost and languishing in the past glories of Reagan and Bush years and is out of dated and out of touch. Obama knows that and decided to waste little time on Harper due to his tenuous grasp on leadership.


The PMO tried in the most self-conscious and inept ways possible to draw parallels between Harper and Obama and could only muster embarrassing linkages like both are “family men” and “outsiders.” One has the urge to divert one’s eyes in the face of even reading such embarrassing stretches of reality and pretenses of rapport.


On the other hand, the parallels between Obama and Ignatieff were obvious. Both were Harvard educated, academics, teachers and accomplished writers. Harper is apparently writing a book – on hockey. Obama noted that he he has actually ready Ignatieff's books during their airport hanger meeting. Iggy appropriately played down the media musing on his similarities to the President by noting “Look, there’s only one Barack Obama…I’m a politician in Canada. Let’s keep it under control here.” Can you ever imagine Stephen Harper uttering such a self deprecating statement?


Canadians are tiring and distrusting of Harper and will soon dismiss his judgment, question his ability and worry over his commitment to actually deliver the stimulus needed to resolve the recession crisis we face. His only saving grace is the polls showing general feeling of optimism of Canadians indicating they believe that we will weather this storm before the end of 2009. That optimism was measured before the headlines of today showing that once mighty Alberta has also fallen into a sharp recession. Alberta has moved from an $8B surplus to a $1B deficit in a mere 6 months. That is sobering and serious stuff that will no doubt resonate adversely across the psyche of the nation. I will have more to say on that in later posts.


I still think we are into a fall 2009 election. This is ironically consistent with Harper’s fixed election law. remember that laws he blatantly ignored for reasons of retaining personal power and to hell with the best interests of the country? Right now Ignatieff holds the strings and the trump cards and Harper is forced to dance to a different tune than he wants to and it is music that he does not even seem to know. It is just a matter of time before Harper quits or losses and returns to private life as a fellow in the Fraser Institute.

Some Political Predictions and Observations for Canada and Alberta

I have been challenged by some friends and regular readers of this Blog to make some bold predictions for 2009. They come a bit easier if you look at the future through a values lens and not just an events lens. Based on some of our research on Albertan’s value drivers and with an extrapolation of those findings here are a few predictions for 2009.

YES ANOTHER FEDERAL ELECTION IN 2009. It will be early June or in the fall, depending on if Harper can move beyond his personal agenda and get serious about governing the country. The ballot question will be which leader you distrust the least to govern. If Harper fails to get a majority he is toast, just butter him.

I think Harper is past his prime and he will get a notably lower popular vote next election especially in Quebec and Ontario. Iggy benefits as a result of the Harper fatigue that is growing in the land. Iggy will be given a shot at leading the country but will only get yet another minority government. It will be our 4th in a row as Canada tries to work out its future direction and design its destiny. A Liberal coalition with the NDP will happen and not require the Bloc to participate to be viable. A coalition government will be seen by many electoral reform types as an experiment of what governing in a proportional representation voting model would be like.''

There is no Harper successor in the conservative wings, other than Prentice, who is the most obvious. But Prentice is not a natural replacement because he would be the 4th leader in a row from Alberta. That is not likely to happen take over unless the membership, in what has become Harper Party, evaporates in the Maritimes and Ontario and if only the west shows up to select a new leader.

A SEA CHANGE IN THE PUBLIC MOOD: There is a sea change in the national mood coming as well in 2009. It will be most dramatic in the form of a move away from the destructive and tiresome Bush league neo-republican political tactics that defined the Harper style and regime. His demise however will leave Canada without any strong and substantive federal political parties in this critical time. The political parties will come through the next election all lacking modern organizational capacity, enough money, strategic campaign capacity and effective and definitive leadership.

I see some dangerous times ahead for Canadian democracy as we try, as a country, to work our way through a serious and game-changing recession and the implications of the economic power shift to Alberta. Drift and confusion will prevail as partisans dive into desperate searches for new style political saviour/leaders that they (and we) can trust to govern not just win elections. We will long for new leaders who have ability, energy and enthusiasm for the job of governing and who also understand the nature and essence of the country. We will latch on to an effective leader who can communicate with a personal resonance and activating and invigorating vision for the country.

INDIFFERENCE TURNS TO ANGER AND ANXIETY: Citizen’s indifference towards politics in 2008 will turn to fear and anxiety in 2009 as a sense of foreboding and uncertainty sets the political mood. Such attitudes will colour the policy agenda as we wait for a miraculous leadership messiah to deliver us and perhaps help us adapt to the new world order. If we don’t see this new style leader emerging, Canadians will emotionally align with Obama. He will come to be seen as the best Prime Minister Canada never had as we will shift our focus on new American policy and governing models in a search for meaning in Canada.

WITHER ALBERTA? Alberta will feel the pain of the rest of Canada but we will weather the global recession better than anywhere else in the country. We will see people migrating here in droves again in the second half of 2009 looking for work as oil prices recover and stabilize in the $50-80 range. People will come to Alberta wanting jobs so they can pay taxes. They are not going to be coming just because Alberta taxes are low.


THE ALBERTA "BRAND" Alberta will be seen increasingly as the unrepentant bad-boy on the environment as carbon concerns accelerate and climate change becomes personal. This is especially going to be true if Alberta’s government pursues a counter-attack policy of spending $25million for a paid advertising campaign. This foolishness appears to be based on old-style “branding” techniques using messaging and positioning instead of sound policy and effective mitigation action. The rise of Web 2.0 and social media proliferation will make such old school approaches look and be laughable.

We Albertans have already lost the credibility battle on the emotional framing of oil sands versus tar sands in the world's consciousness and consequences of this very important energy resource. A slick and glossy paid media campaign aimed at getting out a countervailing “message” will be seen as a green wash and erode our credibility even further. Albertans want to be proud of how they are responsibly and sustainably developing the oil sands for wealth creation now and for future generations. Green washing old school attempts to buy media manufactured messaging will embarrass us.

LEADERSHIP SHORTFALLS: Alberta policy makers have yet to show that they get it. "It" is a clear and demonstrated consciousness about the intertwined nature of economy and environment and how it is best used to serve and reflect the social needs and values of the citizens. “It” is an integrated triple bottom line comprehensive and long term view of wise and responsible oil sands development.

As Premier Stelmach said in the last Alberta election, and I paraphrase: "...the environment trumps economic development and leadership trumps issues (management). I have seen some, but not enough, evidence of sound public policy on the ground that shows me this insight is an operational governing conviction and not election rhetoric.

In political Alberta and political Canada I will be looking for signs of leadership based on lessons learned from past mistakes, earned public trust, obvious character and intellectual integrity with demonstrated authenticity and a commitment to renewal. These are the key political, business and community leadership talismans I will be watching for in the coming year.

In my heart I remain cautiously optimistic in spite of the dire tone of this post. 2009 is here and it promises not to be pretty. We will have to change many things and in many ways as a result of unregulated and condoned greed and abuses. We should not try to come out of this recession by merely aspiring to replicate the kind of society, economy and eco-consciousness we were going in. We will all be better for the lessons learned leading up to the recession and new learnings and experiences we will have coming out of it.

(Photo credit dgwallick1 from Flickr)

Ignatieff Wins Liberal Leadership By Attrition.

In the post-Stephane Dion reality Dominic LeBlanc and Bob Rae bow out of the Liberal Leadership race. So the next Liberal leader is the runner up from last time. The crown passes to Michael Ignatieff with a whimper not a bang.

It looks like the transfer of the Federal leadership follows the model of the Miss Universe beauty pageant. In the political reality of beauty pageant succession it is clear that if the winner can’t perform her duties, for whatever reason, then the first runner up will take over and finish the job. Dion’s done and Iggy’s in. The politics of the Federal Liberals and Miss Universe unfold as they should.

As a newly minted Federal Liberal interloper Bob Rae’s leadership hopes depended on him being able to use a coalition approach to attract and create a different power base to win a leadership contest. That would take time and given the tentative nature of Harper’s minority, time is not on Rae’s side.

At a more fundamental level, my sense is Rae is too much yesterday’s man and LeBlanc may be tomorrow’s man but the reality of today requires as sense of urgency, and talent for adaptability and the some political nimbleness. That is where the political focus has to be for the Federal Liberal party. I see Ignatieff as a man of today. In that way he ends up being the transitional leader from the old style centralized power and top-down authority based model of politics to the new networked, internet based political culture that is coming.

A party leader being selected by attrition is not a great day for democracy in the purist’s sense. But the times are not normal, be it economically, environmentally and socially…and for sure politically. The process that results in Ignatieff as leader of the Federal Liberal party is obviously sub-optimal. It does meet the governance needs of these times in Canada…it shows the Federal Liberals to be adaptable and nimble in the face of the economic urgency facing the nation.

The coalition is not dead under Ignatieff. It is merely dormant, having done its job so far. It can be resurrected just as quickly as it was the first time. It will undoubtedly be revived if Harper chooses again to ignore the needs of the nation in favour of his self-centred power hungry political approach.