Manning Centre Event Offered Nothing New for Alberta Politics

I spent an enjoyable day at the Manning Centre for Democracy Future of Alberta wonkfest on Saturday.


Other bloggers have done some great analysis of the event. read Chris LaBossiere, DJKelly and Duncan Kinney for examples. I find myself agreeing with all of them. I have attended many such events and have designed and deployed dozens of them. The format was about as traditional as you could get and it served the purposes of the organizers. It was not conducive for any affective and reflective conversation because 15 minutes with pre-set tasks and pressure for a quick consensus really erodes any opportunity for a nuanced understanding of topics.

I would caution people who want to follow up on the reporting of the “results” of the event to take them with a grain of salt. The event had some non-conservatives in the room, including Linda Duncan, the NDP MP from Edmonton Strathcona. For an invitation only event, it was a pretty white, male and mostly my age group. There were some younger people, many of them from the Reboot Alberta movement and more than a token number of women too.

It was interesting to observe who did not show up. The absence of the PC Caucus was most notable. Ken Allred the PC MLA from St Albert was there all day Saturday and Kyle Fawcett was “debating” Daniele Smith on Friday night. Ken told me he was dismayed more of his colleges did not make the effort. The event was overtly designed to promote what Preston Manning calls “small c conservative principles” and it did just that. To presume a designed discussion by over what shade of blue the future of Alberta should be is helpful for the Wildrose Alliance and could have been good for the Progressive Conservative Party too…if they bothered to show up.

What happened yesterday was a conservative value set validation by conservatives for conservatives with a presumption that the outcomes would be a rough draft policy blueprint for Albertans to follow. I think that is how the results will be presented by the Manning Centre. The political shifts that are bubbling below the surface in the minds of Albertans are much more complex. That complexity inherent in the issues addressed will not be captured with the 15 minutes of time allowed for participants to express their opinions and ideas at the tables.

I really enjoyed the folks at my table and it was good to catch up with folks like John McDougall, recently retired head of the Alberta Research Council, Don Diduck from the Alberta Congress Board, Dr. Richard Plain, Health Economist and former Mayor of St Albert, Edwin Errickson the leader of the Alberta Party, Colin Jackson former head of the Epcor Centre in Calgary and WAP MLA Paul Hinman. Naheed Nenshi was there too and I got to congratulate my friend Shannon Stubbs on her new job as Danielle Smith's new Executive Assistant.

I especially enjoyed the presentations from the University of Lethbridge Political Scientist Peter McCormick on citizen participation, Marlo Raynolds of the Pembina Institute on conservative environmental approaches and Mike Percy’s excellent information on the future of the Alberta economy. The other presentations, not so much!

What I saw come out of this event was predictable and perpetuation of traditional conservative thinking. I did not see anything that made me think that there is something new and refreshing coming from the “small c conservative” approach to politics and policy. If the outcomes from this weekend are what the conservatives see as the future of Alberta, I have to say it looks more like a passion to repeat the past. I saw nothing about them being able to rethink, redesign and be able to adapt to the new economic, environmental, societal and political realities. I saw nothing new, nuanced or newsworthy except the same-old same-old stuff of personality based leadership driven politics.

I was glad I went and got to spend some time with old friends, meet some new people and many who said they wanted to come to Reboot2.0.  I also got to hear from a few smart speakers who came to share their knowledge. But was this a game-changing event? Maybe it was a positive event for the WAP and a less than tepid event for the PCs.  But it had little that was new to offer to help Alberta live up to its potential or to create the kind of the change Alberta needs to make in order to adapt to new realities.

So now it is time to focus on Reboot2.0 at the end of February.  That is where change will start as a wider range of concerned Albertans gather together to share their hopes and feeling about the future of our province.

Harper's "Drive By Smearing" of Alberta Does Not Sit Well

Neil Waugh of the Edmonton Sun has trouble understanding that I can support the Alberta PC Party and vote Liberal federally. He once said I stood out in the Alberta PC Party “like a mustard stain on a tie.” I liked that, especially coming from Neil. I also like what Waugh has to say about Harper’s “drive by smearing” of Alberta last week.

Last week Harper, in Trudeau- like arrogance, once again decided to unilaterally imposed Ottawa into Alberta’s Constitutional rights over our natural resources. Is a new Ottawa politically inspired NEP being imposed on Alberta and this time from a Prime Minister ELECTED from Alberta? What breathtaking political overconfidence. This is just another example of how consistently Harper takes Albertans for granted.

Without any prior notice to the Alberta government, never mind some polite, if not required, intergovernmental consultation on such critical issues, Stephen Harper, the man who would be "President of Canada", waltzed into Calgary last week and kicked Alberta in the economic groin. He stood up and said he as Prime Minister would be the “Decider” about what countries would be eligible to buy our Alberta bitumen - and on what terms.

Harper has proven through his betrayal on Income Trusts that we can't trust his word. He has proven that he has no respect for the Rule of Law in how be broke even his own law on fixed elections. Now we know he has no respect for Federalism, Alberta and keeping government from interfering in the free market system. How UnConservative can you get?

Harper has been taking Alberta and Albertans for granted for over a decade. Alberta needs to send him a message on October 14 and show him we are not his lap dogs. Nor are we Albertans going to continue to act like sheep that he can depend upon to be herded into the voting booth with our ballots already mentally marked for his party and his "leadership."

Change in conservative politics in Alberta has happened before. Albertans sent the Ralph Klein leadership a strong message in the 2004 provincial election when 210,000 supporters stayed home or voted Alliance. The PC Party deposed Ralph a few months later, much to his surprise. Presumptive front runners, Dinning and Morton were found to be wanting in the last PC leadership contest and were denied power by the voters. Stelmach won! Significant political changes do happen - even in Alberta!

It is time for Alberta to send President Harper an equally strong message about change. Not showing up to vote is not the best way to send the message. Low turnout allows the politically powerful presume you are content with them and the status quo since you could not be bothered to show up at the polls. They conveniently fail to recognize the protest in low voter participation.

Showing up and voting strategically works much better. If you want to simply park your vote, vote Green. They will not elect anyone but it encourages them and they get $1.75 for each vote. That helps them get organized and get their message out for next time. Disgruntled conservatives can vote swap and support independent conservative candidates in Edmonton Sherwood Park (Jim Ford), as well as in Calgary and Medicine Hat.

If you want a wise, informed, strong contrarian ecological voice, you can arrange to help Linda Duncan, a Dipper, in Edmonton Strathcona. Imagine how the national media would react if Alberta sent a Dipper to Ottawa. The overzealous Conservative Party War Room would have to do some serious soul searching if that were to happen in Alberta.

If you want to drive Harper to distraction then help out Liberal Jim Wachowich in Edmonton Centre. Last election the Cons threw everything they had at Anne McLellan and finally beat her. Anne McLellan won this seat many times against all odds, with slight margins because of a strong campaign organization, exemplary personal qualities and by tapping into the contrarian Edmonton political spirit. Jim Wachowich has inherited that mantle from Anne is ready, willing and able to represent that contrarian Edmonton Centre spirit again.

It is your country and your province and the election results decide YOUR government. In a democracy you always get the government you deserve, whether you voted or not. Tired of Harper taking you for granted? Let him know that in no uncertain terms with a smart choice and a strategic vote on October 14.

The Canadian Voter is "Up for Grabs" - Nik Nanos

I am encouraged by Nik Nanos’ survey showing that 60% of Canadian voters are “up for grabs.” This means that most of us could change our votes if there is a reason to do so.

This will auger well for end of campaign strategic voting. We saw this in 2004 and the shift away from scary Harper’s control-freak version of Canada with him in control of everything. It could happen again. It must happen again.

The citizens of Canada need to ensure the Harper Conservatives do not get a majority government. If they do, Harper will make into Canada into a one-party NEO-REPUBLICAN STATE. That is ENOUGH REASON enough to vote ABC – Anything But Conservative.

The Cons have the most hard-core group of voters…ignoring the Bloc which don’t count for the rest of Canada who are outside Quebec. Half of Harper’s partisans are true-believers and “Very Firm” in their voting intentions…and they will show up at the polls for sure. If the rest of us stay home, that is enough to give Harper a majority government

The Greens are the next most solid group of party supporters at 43% Very Firm, but there are not a lot of them. The Greens are ironically the most fluid group too with 18% saying they are “Not At All Sure” if they will vote for their party.

The NDP support for Layton is about 50/50 overall with 44% saying they are “Somewhat Firm” compared to 39% in the “Very Firm” category and 7% who are really unsure of voting along party lines.

The Liberals are even softer than the NDP. The only have 36% of true believers and the largest group of Somewhat Firm (47%) and Not At All Firm at 9%. This is an obvious reflection of ambiguousness over Dion’s leadership and the lack-lustre campaign so far.

My guess is the election is all about Harper and if he can be trusted as a person, not just as a manager. Readers of this Blog know I think the answer is unequivocally NO! I think his is also a danger to democracy.

If others agree then strategic voting will become the norm to stop Harper in the last week of the campaign. For many reasons Layton will not be the beneficiary of this strategic voting, not the least of which was his agreeing with Harper to keep May out of the debates.

Here is how I see it happening. The Liberals will hold their noses and rally behind Dion. Greens will stay with May in her own riding and where they are competitive like Linda Duncan in Edmonton Strathcona but most of them will shift to Liberals. The NDP will split evenly between staying with Layton and shifting to Liberals to void vote splitting and giving a majority to Harper.

The cynical and disengaged may get scared by Harper’s sly, negative an conniving campaign style and show up to stop him. This will be because they begin to see the disaster that will befall them if they do show up and vote against Harper’s lust for personal political power. Anyone who thinks this election is inconsequential because it is essentially unnecessary and stay away from the polls is sleep walking to a disaster. That disaster is a Conservative majority government led by a power hungry control freak by the name of Stephen Harper.

Time to show up and vote Canada and make sure that does not happen!