Recession Over? Where is the Recovery?

Mark Twain once famously sent a telegram saying “Rumours of my death are greatly exaggerated.” I get a sense that same sentiment needs to be conveyed about rumours of economic recovery are also greatly exaggerated – and confounding as well.

We have the technical talk from economists telling us the recession is over in Canada. The June Stats Canada report shows our GDP rose 0.1% that month after 10 months constant and precipitous declines. This “turnaround” is just so much decimal dust in the big scheme of things, but it has spawned headlines like “Canadian Economy Back in the Black” in the Sun newspapers. Yes indeed rumours of recovery are greatly exaggerated. Let’s look at some context to help us determine the truth of the times.

The Globe and Mail rightly says while June GDP tipped-toed into positive territory the last quarter (April to June) was down 3.4% annualized and that was worse than expected. They say, “It doesn’t mean things are necessarily better, it just means they aren’t as bad as the last time data was collected.” Cold, hard truth and a side-order of reality are in that comment.

The US Federal Reserve Chair, Ben Bernanke says the economy teetered in February and warned of the “destructive powers of the ‘adverse feedback loop, in which weakening economic and financial conditions mutually reinforce.’” That is simple know as a vicious cycle. The key to the US recover according to Bernanke is for consumer to start spending again. Temper that hope with the fact that the American consumer has personal debt piled up that is equal to the entire US annual GDP. Spending is not likely to be the main concern of the typical American for the next while.

In Alberta we have the Canada West Foundation saying in a recent report entitled “A Rough Patch” in the Alberta economic profile. While oil prices have started to recover, unemployment is still high, investment is down means “…that the news is more bad than good.” CFW notes Alberta is very dependent on the US recover which it predicts will not start to turn around until sometime in 2010. CWF says energy prices will start to turn around too but “…last year’s contraction, the first since 1986, came as a bit of a shock to them (Albertan.)” They predict Alberta in 2009 will do worse than the Canadian average.

The recession may be at the bottom of the cycle in the minds of the economists but the issue for the rest of us is the recovery. Will it be a “V”, a fast drop and a quick recovery? Will it be a “U” fast decline lingering at the bottom and then a rapid recovery? Will it be a “W” with a false sense of recovery sparked by the infrastructure spending but not sustainable so we return to recession after the public infrastructure project spending is done? Will it be an “L” like in Japan? That reality of the “lost decade” in Japan recently caused a wholesale change in their politics and the demise of its “natural governing party in the recent election.

Nobody knows so use a skeptical eye and ear to whatever you are reading or hear from the “experts” in the area. I think we need to use this recession for a thorough review and rethink about the infallibility of the market place. That does not mean government control of everything either. What I would like to see is the economy returned to its rightful place –and that is to serve the society, not the other way around. I would also like to see the economy as repositioned to be the wholly owned subsidiary of the environment.

The economy is a man-made concept so mankind can change the content and context of the concept. Growth is good but like anything else, too much of a good think is harmful. Like many Albertans, L am longing for a Lougheed kind of leadership who will warn us to take heed and to adapt to new realities as we come out of this recession.

Lougheed is on record saying we Albertans, as owners of our natural resources, need to be sure our government and industry exercise some restraint, especially in how we develop the oilsands. The past economic policy of unfettered growth has only enriched a few but, in the process; it has set up the destruction of our society and our environment.

When it comes to the oilsands we can do better, and we better do better...and it better be green going forward.

Stelmach Says Environment Trumps Economy - It is About Time.

You can’t blame Albertans for being confused when you read the reporting on Ed Stelmach’s alleged response(s) to the CEMA letter calling for a partial moratorium on further oil sands leases so conservation issues can be addressed.

I think the Edmonton Journal front page headline repeats Stelmach from over a year ago saying “No Brakes on Oil Sands” and the Globe and Mail has Stelmach saying “Environment Trumps Economy.” I think both stories are accurate but you have to wonder at the framing of the issue and why the PC policy position is not clearer and more consistent. It can change over time and I applaud that it does. But whoda thunk Ed Stelmach was so post-modern! Well, me for one because I know a bit about the man. I know his sense of ecological stewardship and the respect he has for the free enterprise system. However the role of government is to ensure and enhance both aspects of our lives and for the greater common good, not just the accumulation of private wealth.

I have to spend some time reflecting on how to square this circle. The best I can do so far is to express my own feelings and beliefs. The environment has to trump the economy –every time. And the economy has to serve the interests of society –every time and not the other way around as it has been in Alberta as of late.

Government has a duty to regulate and protect the environment. And there are economic consequences in the government's job in exercising that stewardship responsibility. Progress is measured by building on strengths and avoiding or mitigating weaknesses. On the weakness side I want a government that first avoids and, if necessary, fixed screw ups and one that seizes opportunities that present themselves.

On the strength side I want a government who takes responsibility for those things we need to care about as a society, including the natural and social capital deficits we have in Alberta today. I want a government that takes its role of managing our resources seriously and responsibly - including collecting royalty payments owned when due.

Finally I want a government that has a leadership group, like a Cabinet, that can listen, learn and adapt – effectively, quickly and appropriately. That is the real biggie going forward. We need to enhance our ecological integrity in this province. We need to enhance our social cohesion and capacity show caring and compassion for our vulnerable citizens form children, to seniors to the disabled. We need to vastly improve our decision making procedures and capacity.

So Ed, Kevin, Brian, Paul and George, that is what I want my next government to be capable of. The rest is detail that I will trust you, as my Premier, if you are in power after Monday, to work out in a way that is open, transparent and accountable. No pressure!

The Green's George Read Circumvents the MSM and Gets His Message Across.

Now is the time for all Albertans to prove their contrarian spirit and take a few minutes and give a listen to George Read of the Alberta Greens. Cut out of the debate by the supercilious determination of the Alberta television networks George is the Rodney Dangerfield of Alberta politics. Read is a maverick with a cause whereas Hinman is a rebel without one. Hat tip to Archie McLean of the Edmonton Journal for the link.

Visit his YouTube response to the debate questions. For those in my generation, who don’t know what YouTube is, let me explain. It is the nextGen’s interactive alternative viewing source to replace the MSM's "out-casting" model of network television. If you don’t know what nextGen means Wiki it…if you can’t figure out either of these concepts then rapidly retreat into the stupefying confining boxes of Dave Rutherford or Charles Adler.

Read’s rough cut video shows that he is knowledge, informed, authentic and genuine. No slick Vancouver or Toronto ad agency puffery here…a real deal kinda guy with commentary that is refreshingly progressive.

Alberta Greens Nominate More Candidates Than Wildrose Alliance But Are Cut Out of the TV Debate! What a Dumb Move!

Congratulations to George Read and the Alberta Greens for nominating 79 candidates this election. That exceeds significantly the Wildrose Alliance Party 61 candidate nominations. The WAP would have had access to a larger and better oiled political machine, plus, I presume, assiatance from federal Conservatives who are sympathetic to them. Good for the Alberta Greens. Talk about grassroots.

GREENS COULD DO WELL THIS ELECTION:

I am on the verge of predicting that the Alberta Greens will be the most successful party this election based on increased popular vote. I see a number of trends happening that benefit the Greens. I will wait for a week or so before I actually stick my neck out on this prediction - but I see a trend forming.

The world is run by those who show up and as a result nobody ever wasted a vote. Only no shows on Election Day are a waste. So the disenchanted and disgruntled Albertan who are not happy with any main line party can have a choice. If they want to show up they can either spoil their ballot – but that does no good because they don’t realy get counted. Or they can park their ballot with the Greens.

Disenchanted supporters of the Tories, Liberals and NDP, who don’t think staying home on Election Day is very effective at sending a message have a choice. Those who are not so ticked off with their party as to abandon ship and switch to another party may decide to park their votes with the Greens as a means to show their own party they are not happy.

Previously disengaged non-partisan citizens, and those who are engaged but undecided, and a big chunk of them are women and youth, can comfortable park ballot or even chose the Greens as a preference.

I think the Green popular vote is about to blossom this election and could be 10 -12% of total votes cast if voters get ticked enough to get actively engaged and not just sit back and be quietly enraged. Will the Alberta Greens elect anyone? Not likely because their resources and support is too thinly spread out to make an concentrated impact at the polls.

I do think there are a few Green candidates to watch on election night. One is Joe Anglin in Lacombe Ponoka who rose to prominence in the EUB spy scandal incidents and was very effective for Alberta farmers in thier plight. The other Green with a chance, I am told, is Edwin Erickson in Drayton Valley Calmar who came in second last time. He has a much more formidable PC candidate this time in Dianne McQueen, the popular Mayor of Drayton Valley. Dianne defeated the incumbent PC candidate in a nomination fight and is a formidible campaigner.

GREENS CUT OUT OF THE TV DEBATE - NOT GOOD!

The Alberta Greens have been cut out of the TV Debate this Thursday by the MSM television people. That decision is presumably based on the fact they don’t have any seats. That is a bad and wrong-headed decision. Pam Barrett as NDP leader got to debate in the 1997 when they were shut out of seats. There is precedent.

There is a danger here for the television people due to this desision. Content control of the election campains is no longer absolute perview of televisoin networks and print media. Albertans now have the internet as an alternative interactive information source - and boy are they are using it. The power and reach of the internet strikes at the very heart of traditional institutionalized one-way message control of the MSM.

GREENS USE THE INTERNET TO GET DEBATE ANSWERS OUT - A BETTER SOLUTION:

George Read, the Alberta Green leader, is going to use the internet to respond to all the televised debate questions on YouTube and get the Alberta Green message out that way. Read’s on-line debate answers will be there on-line for the rest of the campaign and beyond. His content will be available long after the MSM televised debate content is gone and forgotten. Anyone who wants to see and hear his comments can do so when, where and how ever they wish, and as often as they wish. His audience will also be able to link, post and redistribute the Read YouTube videos to further expand his reach.

Cutting the Alberta Greens out of the television debate may be one of the biggest blunders the Alberta television networks ever did. Because this decision to cut the Greens is unfair and unjustified, it will drive more and more citizen away from conventional media and on to the Web for political content.

Election Campaigns are changing and so is the media coverage changing because of new media and Web 2.0 techniques. There are now real alternatives to get content and real conversations going about politics and public policy. Too bad our traditional television stations are out of touch with the new realities.