Latest IPCC Climate Change Report is the Most Sobering Yet.

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) today is releasing its most sobering analysis yet. Past civilizations have been successful but have made fundamental and monumental errors and disappeared. Read Ronald Wright’s “A Short History of Progress” for some examples and context on this phenomenon.

Today, with what we are doing to the planet, our nations and our species have the capacity to actually see the coming disaster we are creating for life on this planet through global warming. We have two perceptual advantages over the past doomed ancient civilizations. We know about those past failures so we can learn from their mistakes and not repeat a modern variation of the same.

We also have the capacity to foresee the pending consequences of our actions and we can adapt and change our ways. Easier said than done but it is clearer everyday that we cannot continue to define progress and development as we have.

The planet will survive. There is no guarantee that our species will continue to be part of its future, especially if we do not fundamentally change our wasteful and damaging ways.

Alberta's oil sands and energy industry will be at the centre of world attention as this focus on an attitude change by mankind gains momentum as a way to respond to climate change. ENGOs are already gearing up to make oil sands the "Baby Seals" issue of the next decade.

Albertan's want changes mand in how we can be more responsible and sustainable in the development of our energy sector and the oil sands in particular. There is an on-line survey being done by Cambridge Strategies Inc. and The Policy Channel to find out what Albertans want and value most about responsible and sustainable oil sands development.

Here is the link to Policy Channel to do the survey. It takes about 8 minutes to do and forces you to thnk and make hard choices and trade offs...just like real life. So stick with it and finish the survey...and leave us an email address if you want a report on the findings.

Albertan's Are Responding to the Oil Sands Survey.

I am very encouraged by the response to the Oil Sands Survey we at Cambridge Strategies Inc and The Policy Channel are doing on values Albertans attribute to responsible and sustainable development of the oil sands. So far over 4400 Albertans have participated in this discrete choice modelling survey and this is not an easy survey that asks if you like Pepsi or Coke – it makes you think and requires you to make some personal value judgements.

We have also done a Stats Can aligned sample of 1300 Albertans to be sure we have a scientific base line for this project. Now we are reaching out to get as many Albertans as we can to do the survey as well. This is not a sponsored survey but we intend to use the results to influence government policy and industry practices on the future direction and goals for responsible and sustainable oil sands development.

The survey is anonymous but if you want a report on the results we ask you for an email address at the end of the survey. There is also a place for you to comment on the survey and the issues around oil sands development. Those comments will help us inform government and industry on the theme areas as well.

If who want to have a say in how you believe your oil sands ought to be developed please take the time to do the survey. It will force some hard choices and trade-offs on you - just like in real life but stick with it - you will be glad you did it!

Here is a link to Policy Channel and the Survey link is in the top left hand corner.

Alberta Oilsands Production Pressures Increasing.

The Alberta oil sands are coming under increased pressure. According to the Globe and Mail, demand for additional production is coming out of the U.S. to move from the current 1.2 million barrels per day to more than 3 million by 2015 in one estimate and over 3.4 million in the same time frame by another estimate.

Pipeline capacity is strained and the lead time for new capacity is a problem but some relief is expected by 2010 with new projects doming on stream. Then we have the refining issues and Midwest American refiners are reported to be spending abut $18billion up to 2012 to adapt to increased bitumen availability.

That additional refining capacity in the States brings another problem that may not sit well with Albertans. It could cause the discount between the conventional oil prices and the synthetic crude that is derived from oil sands to increase impacting negatively on provincial revenues.

Then you have expanded American refining capacity as a potential to undermine the over $40billion of scheduled Upgraders in the Edmonton area because they may not be cost effective. Albertans want the value added benefits of upgrading and refining in the province so this American refining capacity adaptation and energy demand is something the province is going to have to respond to aggressively.

Alberta is already suffering and not keeping up under the social and environmental, economic and inflationary strain of 1.2 million barrels pf daily production. To triple that in about 8 short years is going to take some serious adjustments to wages, investment in all kinds of infrastructure from physical to human, to social and natural stewardship initiatives.

If anyone thinks this is going to be resolved purely by market forces, the evidence today is that it is only going to get worse. The Canadian Press out of Toronto quotes the CIBC World Markets with some interesting observations. The story says the Canadian oilsands gain importance as other cut exports. “Canadian oilsands”…and out here in Alberta we thought the province controlled its natural resources by virtue of the Constitution…how naïve of us.

The prediction is that OPEC other countries like Russia and Mexico will be cutting exports in a few short years due to production lags and increasing domestic demands. The estimates are for a 7% decline in exports by 2010 – causing much higher oil prices.

Reports say that last year OPEC countries plus Russia and Mexico consumed about 12 millions of oil per day. That was 60% more than China and a td more than all of Western Europe. Canada’s oil consumption is reported to have actually declined last year.

CIBC economists Jeff Rubin predict oilsands will expand in the next decade and surpass deep-water sites as the largest sources of new supply…almost all of which he says will be exported to the U.S.A.

Alberta is rapidly emerging in the cross-hairs of geo-political energy battles and the forces that will be brought to bear on us are going to be substantial. We better get ready for that reality and quickly. A good start would be to find the new person to go to Washington DC to act on Alberta’s behalf on US issues, not the least of which will be energy export followed by demands for water exports.

NOTE TO READER: The impact of other countries and their oil policy was the subject of an editorial on Policy Channel on August 13. It adds fuel to the fire.