Can Alberta Conservatives Win in 2019 and Deny Climate Change?

Abacus Data has a new on-line survey of 1534 Canadians randomly selected from a panel of 500,000 Canadians.  They weighted the responses to "match census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada's population" demographics.

Not sure that weighting is reliable or even possible.  The Harper government killed the long form census so we likely don't have a reliable base line to weigh against.  Harper did not want reliable statistical evidence  contradict or undermine his political agenda.

Prime Minister Trudeau's first policy move after being elected was to return the long form census so it may be possible that Abacus Data has those results to "weigh" against.  Are the results using this methodology truly representative of Canadian opinion and values?  I don't know but I have a serious suspicion of on-line panel responses.  Are they anything more than allegedly random samples using questionable sources where certain responses are weighted to induce or deem a representative sample?

That said, lets take a look at what the survey purports to discover in the context of what political policy should be on climate change if a political party wants to be reflective of the will of citizens and victorious at election time.

Abacus says that back in the day "...politicians who chose to be early champions of action to reduce emissions were running a certain amount of political risk."  Carbon emission consequences were not fully formed in the public consciousness.  However, "Today in Canada, the risk equation has changed. the bigger political peril lie in appearing indifferent to a matter of widespread and growing public perception."

If this survey is accurate half of Canadian voters (49%) won't even consider a party or a candidate that doesn't have a plan to combat climate change.   Only 6% prefer a party or a candidate that ignores the issue.

If ignoring the issue of climate change is the same as denying it exists then are Conservatives, including those in Alberta, in trouble next election?  Yup, but only if climate change is an election is a significant enough issue in the minds of voters.  Consider this survey finding.  "The rest (44%) are 'willing to consider' a party that doesn't make the climate a priority."

Abacus' analysis on the 44% says "For Canada's conservative parties and candidates, an optimistic read of these numbers is that the Conservatives cold win without an ambitious plan given that half of the population don't consider this policy a pre-requisite for their support."  They go one to warn Conservatives that ignoring the climate change issues would be "tying on hand behind their backs, leaving them no room for error."

Environmentalism has changed in Canada and is now a "moderate" concern for 78% of Canadians.  Only 11% see themselves as "ardent" environmentalists and another 11% are indifferent.  There are 68% of us how attribute climate change to human and industrial causes, 21% say its just natural phenomenon and 2% are climate change deniers.

Obviously one way to defeat the KenneyCons (a.k.a. the UCP) in Alberta is to elevate climate change action into a ballot box issue.  How might that happen?  Well we need to be sure the voting public understands and appreciates the consequences of inaction or inept half-hearted action on climate change.

That may already be the case given the Abacus survey found 85% of us said "...taking no action on climate change will be severe, very severe, or catastrophic across a wide range of areas..." including agriculture, human health and insurance access, taxpayer costs of rebuilding after disasters to name a few.  The momentum is for action so says 63% versus 37% who want" to do little or nothing" about climate change.

Here's the kicker for inert Conservatives on climate change.  There is an enormous moral responsibility as 91% say taking action on climate change is a duty to future generations.  While 47% believe the damage is already done, we are past the tipping point and there is "...little chance we could  stop climate change at this point."  Contrast that with 87% who feel there is "already lots of evidence we can cut emissions when we try."  And, get this shift, 79% believe "...combating climate change will open up economic opportunities."

So the old-line HarperCons climate change denier stance is no longer tenable as sound political platform.  The environment is not perceived as a trade-off with the economy nor is it a barrier to growth, in fact is is a catalyst for growth, responsible sustainable growth and a competitive advantage. 

Will the KenneyCon UCP base in Alberta, that now is really the same old HarperCon fundamentalist  social conservative crowd, accept this shift in public perception and deny being deniers?  Will a UCP shift to rhetoric on responsible sustainable economic development that stewards the environment be credible to Alberta progressive voters?

I'm betting no to both propositions.  That doesn't mean the UCP loses the next election.  But making the integrated comprehensive mutually positive relationship between the environment and the economy as a major ballot box issue is a great start to defeating Kenney next election, 

If you want to dig deeper into the Abacus survey the link is here...

Feeling an Uneasy Redux of the '60s

The Beatles Revolution #1 was of its time but those times may be returning to become our times.   What with Climate Change, Democratic Deficits, Economic Meltdowns, enormous personal debt levels, recessions, changing political power structures, tribal wars instead of state conflicts....the list goes on...and on...and on.  Are we ready for a revolution and transformation in how we live - like within natural limits?

Is this Beatles tune an anthem to hope...or cynicism?  It was ringing true then but is it also ringing true for today?  What is your anticipation of what the next year will bring?  Are you making a New Years Resolution or a Revolution?  Are you adaptable enough?  Is Alberta adaptable enough?  Are we wise enough to do what is right and required without a crisis.  Are we thinking for a change?

"When an old culture is dying the new culture is born from a few people who are not afraid to feel insecure." - Rudolph Bahro

What is our responsibility?

What choices do we make?

Do we choose to be awake?

Do we choose to practice the future now?

We should not be seduced by hope or fear.

(VIA MEG WHEATLEY)

Are We on the Verge of Ecological Disaster?

This link is from a Harvard publication and was brought to my attention through Ruben Nelson of Foresight Canada. Ruben is one of the Reboot Alberta "Weavers" - the integrated whole-systems thinkers who help me try and make sense of the energy and angst behind the Reboot Alberta citizens movement.

Ruben's note was a reference to a piece in yesterdays New York Times by Thomas Homer-Dixon entitled "Disaster at the Top of the World."  I hesitate to add the New York Times link due to copyright concerns.

There is a great danger that Alberta will be very vilified by geopolitical propaganda forces like the Corporate Ethics "Rethink Alberta"  advertising campaign against tourism to our province due to oil sands development.  They, amongst others, have decided to target the oil sands as "dirty oil" and push perceptions that Albertans are not doing enough to respond to the environmental charges being laid against us.  Well quite frankly we are not doing enough.  But that is a far cry from doing nothing about the environmental and habitat consequences of oil sands development either.  The problem is our actions speak softer than  our words and too much of what we say is done in expensive glossy and untrusted paid-advertising counter-attack campaigns.

We need to do more, better, smarter, faster and with more authenticity integrity, honesty, accountability, transparency and demonstrate the on-going and extended efforts towards environmental stewardship of Albertans.  Only that way will be counter the criticism and return to being proud as owners of how this vital and necessary resource is being developed.

Albertans already know this from some values research we have recently completed.  For example the research that shows over 75% of Albertans think an integrated approach to protecting wildlife habitat, doing science based reclamation. ecological monitoring  and more concern for water and greenhouse gases is what we need to use as values to guide and drive oil sands development.  Acting with wisdom on these concerns starts to put Alberta in the preferred future spot of being the best for the world and not merely getting irresponsibly rich as we are been seen by many outside Alberta these days.

There is work being done but it is not what is being talked about in response to the criticism.  Jobs and investments are important but they are the givens in the oil sands game.  We already have more of them than we can handle responsibly. Yes they might dry up if commodity prices drop but we have no control over market prices and besides there is enough work and investment in the hopper now that will lasts us long into the future.  Time for the narrative to more on to the real issues of concern to Albertans about oil sands developments about environment and habitat protection and reclamation planning and performance.

Ruben has some hard-edged observations in his e-mail to me as to why there is a need for public pressure to do the right thing and that this cannot be left to governments and industry alone.  He said that "...business will not act as a sector - it is too tied up in short-term self interest, and democratic governments will not act until there is an obvious mega-disaster among their own citizens."

As citizens and owners of the oil sands Albertans have to start taking responsibility for how they are developed.  If you want a progressive political culture in the Next Alberta register now for RebootAlberta 3.0 at www.rebootalberta.org

Is Harper Hiding From the House to Deliver the Quarterly Economic Report Card Tomorrow?

Prime Minister Harper will announce the next Quarterly Economic Report Card from New Brunswick tomorrow morning...not the House of Commons. This way he avoids the national media asking questions. There will be no news conference of scrum of the Prime Minister by the Ottawa media who follow the federal political scene day afer day. hard to conclude anything else that Prime Minister Harper is trying to bury the story tomorrow.

Here is a link to the CTV Question Period show with an interview of the Honourable John Baird, the Minister responsible for the stimulus program. Judge for yourself if he answers straight forward questions with the truth or just something that is "plausible."

This way our Prime Minister, the Right Honourable Harper does not have to respond to questions from the Opposition in QUESTION PERIOD. The economy of the country is in crisis but Leader of our country will not show up in an accountable, available and transparent way to advise the nation about the state of the nation.

Our Prime Minister Harper also avoided the Climate Change discussions at the UN and the General Assembly last week. Prime Minister Harper visited a Tim Horton's Donut place instead. We have hard issues to deal with in this country and we need a governing leadership that will show up and be accountable...and be capable of telling us the facts and in dealing with the facts.

I wonder if we can trust the truth of comments Prime Minister Harper will make tomorrow about the Canadian economy? Will he only give us "plausible" pronouncement and will he release documents that prove his claims about the economy in his presentation in St John New Brunswick tomorrow morning?

So far Mr. Harper has been consistently and chronically very wrong about telling Canadians what the Federal deficit really is and why. So there is reason for us to be suspicious of what he says. He has squandered any right to the benefit of the doubt from Canadians. What are the chances he will redeem himself and be truthful and forthright tomorrow?

There are also serious accusations about preferential stimulus program payments being made to Conservative ridings (are you thinking Conservative Adscam?). Prime Minister Harper has yet to counter those criticisms with any facts or other proof that they are wrong or inaccurate. He claims 80% of the stimulus money is already in the field so surely he can tells us where the funds are being spent on a constituency by constituency basis and how he arrives at that calculation.

Harper is clearly ducking the House tomorrow. Why? Is it beause he will also be ducking the facts and avoiding accountability and scrutiny of Parliament tomorrow. I hope his is not hiding and hedging the truth again. Canada needs the straight goods from its Prime Minister. The consequences are too serious for political gamesmanship form our Prime Minister. We need a Prime Minister who is capable of statesmanship. Which will we see from our Prime Minister tomorrow? I will be tuning in, that is for sure.

Will Climate Change Cause Border Wars?

The Economist has an article speculating about climate change creating border conflicts. What do you think? We already have our first phase of climate change refugees and more to come.

This is the single greatest threat and opportunity mankind has to prove the Prisoner's Dilemma is more than a game.

All of mankind - not to mention other species - are all in this together. What are you thoughts on if we are wise enough to conserve and preserve instead of consume and presume things will be alright?

UPDATE: THX TO A TIP FROM ANDREW MCINTYRE HERE IS A LINK TO A VIDEO OF GWYNN DYER ON TVO'S BIG IDEAS TALKING ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE REFUGEES ADN OTHER MATTERS.

Gas Prices Are Low BUT a Crunch is Coming

For all those who think climate change is someone else's problem and far enough in the future that we don't need to get serious about it now I recommend you read Dan Gardner's column in the papers today.

Keeping Our Cool: Canada in a Warming World

Along with the rest of Alberta, I am huddle at home, caught in the grasp of a serious but blessed Pine Beetle killing cold spell. I was pleased with my surfing this morning to run across an intelligent piece of commentary on climate change in the U of A student newspaper The Gateway.

There was a recent on-campus lecture by Dr Andrew Weaver, professor and Canadian chair in climate modelling and analysis in the School of Earth and Ocean Sciences at the University of Victoria, our province hardly deserves the sole blame.

Here is what hooked me into a deeper consideration of what is happening and what needs to change about how we view climate change, including Alberta:

“Most of us don’t read the peer-reviewed literature. We’re not going to go to journals and read about the latest research in a particular area. We’re going to get science knowledge—and this includes media in most areas of science—by going to the newspaper, the television, and radio,” he noted.

The problem with that, as Weaver sees it, is that the media has a tendency to be inaccurate in their depiction of the facts. His second critique was centered around the fact that most media personalities aren’t scientists.

“I’m not making fun of the media, but rather, through these extreme examples, [I want] to show how difficult it is to convey this science to an audience, and how it can be exploited by individuals who know how the media works,” he remarked.

Eventually delving into the real issue at hand—global warming—and its ability to shape the future of this world, Weaver was blunt in his assertion that at this point, there are just some realities that can’t be escaped."

Here is the link to the rest of The Gateway piece.

I guess I have another book to read over Christmas now Weaver’s recent book, Keeping Our Cool: Canada in a Warming World.

Engaging Albertan's in Climate Change

There is a different sense of urgency amongst young people about the destructiveness of human impact on the environment.

This video is an example of the urgency youth feel about climate change. She is a 13 year old Vancouver girl who really set out the issues and concerns at a UN Conference on the Environment.

In the early 90’s Albertans set out on a mission to get rid of our fiscal debt and deficit. We did it with a single minded focus that engaged the entire province and drew people together to make personal sacrifices. We could have done it better – like making sure we did not harm the provinces social and physical capital at the same time as we made massive and brutal cuts in government spending.

A large part of our motivation was we decided as a province that we could not face our children if we saddled them with this enormous fiscal liability we had accumulated in the 80’s due to plummeting oil prices.

It is time to revisit the focused set of values and reconsider what kind of society and environment we will leave for future generations. This ecological effort will also take a significant personal focus and entail changes of behaviours that many will see as sacrifices. Alberta is an obvious place to start this change in behaviour and attitude towards the enviornment.

We need a crystallizing moment that triggers the collective consciousness and captures imagination of Albertans to get this change happening. Then we will see the massive changes necessary in our personal and collective behaviours that must engaged to really address the crisis identified in this video.

The crystallizing moment or event can we launch an ecological crusade of common cause and mutual caring for the greater good. I only hope we can do it by an intentional deliberate design process and not await another disasterous moment or event in order to get our attention.

Latest IPCC Climate Change Report is the Most Sobering Yet.

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) today is releasing its most sobering analysis yet. Past civilizations have been successful but have made fundamental and monumental errors and disappeared. Read Ronald Wright’s “A Short History of Progress” for some examples and context on this phenomenon.

Today, with what we are doing to the planet, our nations and our species have the capacity to actually see the coming disaster we are creating for life on this planet through global warming. We have two perceptual advantages over the past doomed ancient civilizations. We know about those past failures so we can learn from their mistakes and not repeat a modern variation of the same.

We also have the capacity to foresee the pending consequences of our actions and we can adapt and change our ways. Easier said than done but it is clearer everyday that we cannot continue to define progress and development as we have.

The planet will survive. There is no guarantee that our species will continue to be part of its future, especially if we do not fundamentally change our wasteful and damaging ways.

Alberta's oil sands and energy industry will be at the centre of world attention as this focus on an attitude change by mankind gains momentum as a way to respond to climate change. ENGOs are already gearing up to make oil sands the "Baby Seals" issue of the next decade.

Albertan's want changes mand in how we can be more responsible and sustainable in the development of our energy sector and the oil sands in particular. There is an on-line survey being done by Cambridge Strategies Inc. and The Policy Channel to find out what Albertans want and value most about responsible and sustainable oil sands development.

Here is the link to Policy Channel to do the survey. It takes about 8 minutes to do and forces you to thnk and make hard choices and trade offs...just like real life. So stick with it and finish the survey...and leave us an email address if you want a report on the findings.

Harper at the G8 is Not Being Honest Nor is He Being a Broker.

Prime Minister Harper is off to the G8 and positioning Canada as the “honest broker” to bridge the gap between the climate change approaches between Europe and the Americans. Our Prime Minister has yet to clarify his own position on these issues so it is hard to see him as having any significant moral, legal or even intellectual authority to mediate between some pretty significant superpowers.

Our national economy and security is so tied to the USA that it is stretching credibility to believe the Europeans will see Harper as anything more than a shill for President Bush’s position on climate change.

It is not as if our record in Canada on GHG emissions cutting has been exemplary either. So there is no lever for persuasion or brokerage by Harper on that front. In fact we are doing a worse job than the Americans who never said they were to be bound by Kyoto in the first place. Harper’s own anaemic and hesitant policies on climate change offer nothing to add to his stature as an honest broker between Europe and American interests either.

He even misrepresents the India and China position on climate change. They have signed on to Kyoto but starting in the post-2012 period. According to the World Wildlife Fund, India currently contributes 2% of world GHG emissions with a billion people and China spews 5% with 1.3 billion people. Canada sources 2% of the worlds GHG emissions with only 35 million citizens.

The trends in all cases are not encouraging. In the time frame 1999-2004 Canada increased emissions 27%, India was up 57.5% and China increased by 73%. That only proves we are all in serious trouble. Canada obviously needs to do more at home and not just preach to China and India, as temping as that seems to be to Bush and Harper. As for an honest broker we are not in the best position be making the case to others now are we?

We have hardly anything to teach them, except perhaps not to waste the lead up time they have and to start early to create the changes necessary to comply with Kyoto. In Canada we have definitely squandered that lead time from when we signed on.

Yes Steve, it is not easy being green. It is even harder to be credible by pretending that you are. Harper’s Cons are spending big bucks in the pre-writ pre-election period that they don't have to account for when an inevitable election is called. Their message is focused on trying to convince us Dion is not a leader. Ironically Harper is spending lots of his personal political capital right now too. He is posing and posturing as a greenie and proving too all of us in the process that he is definitely not a leader.