WILL ISSUES DRIVE YOUR VOTE?

In a previous post we challenged you to contemplate what worries you and what your public policy, government programs or democratic processes are on your mind .  We provided a 4H Framework Tool to focus and guide you through that analytical process. 

This decision making will come earlier for some and more challenging for others. What is keeping you up at night is usually more personal and family based. We don’t often see those life-challenges in political terms, but we can, and perhaps we should, depending of course on the nature of the problems.

Then there are the community-based concerns,  What is happening in your networks of friends, work, and activities from leisure to working situations that is impacting the  life of your and your family.  These are often matters of local government, institutions, or community organizational dynamics.  They could be matters of public safety, transportation, addiction, development, just to name a few.

Next we have the macro areas of concern that are at the provincial or federal government levels.  These are usually the ones in the news media coverage and tend to dominate partisan political messaging. 

WHAT ARE THE ISSUES?

According to a very recent Abacus Data survey, the top three policy issues on the minds of Albertans these days are:

#1 The Cost of Living (67%)

#2 Improving Health Care (50%)

#3 Managing the Alberta Economy (34%)

The next three top of mind issues are also interesting and cluster in the 21%-25% range of Albertans as most important.  They are:

#4 Keeping Taxes as Low as Possible (25%)

#5 Affordability of Housing (24%)

#6 Standing up for Alberta with the Federal Government (21%)

ARE YOU AN ISSUES-BASED VOTER?

Of course these are provincial based political issues but they may be part of your personal and community-based level of concern as well.  These issues are a good place to start to drill them down into a more granular and detailed consideration for you and your more specific concerns.

What is interesting in a political context for the coming election is which of the two legacy parties, the UCP and NDP, are “most trusted" to deal with the specific issues.  This can give some insight on the power of these issues to influence the outcome of the May election.  

For example, look at the issue of “Defending those working in the oil and gas sector.” This is all about the uncertainty of the global move to alternative sources of energy away from fossil fuels.  The politics about the “Just Transition” for energy sector workers is also part of the issue. 

The UCP, at 53% trust, has overwhelming trust to deal with this compared to the NDP at 20% trusting them to deal with the issues.  Also, there are 23% of Albertans who are “Unsure” of whom to trust to manage this issue.  That is a significant portion of the population.  

However, this issue is significantly important to only 14% of those Albertans surveyed.  So while the UCP is strong on this issue, it is not likely going to be determinative of the election outcome, if there is a good turnout of voters.  

POLITICAL POWER IN ORGANIZED ISSUE-BASED VOTERS

Remember the world is run by those who show up.  This is especially true at election time. What if this issue is a dominant vote driver for many who are feeling significantly impacted personally and in their communities, like oil and gas based rural Albertans.  If they organize around this issue, drive support and their fellow citizens of like minds show up, while others who could care less and are carelessly irresponsible about showing up to vote, this issue could end up being influential on the election outcome.

On the other end of the issues spectrum is the Cost of Living, critically important to 67% of the survey respondents. This shows how close this election could be, because 37% trust the UCP and 26% trust the NDP, 22% are unsure while 5% pick a Third Party to trust.  

In reality there is very little a provincial government can do about the cost of living.  They can’t control inflation in housing, food or transportation, which are some of the major contributors to the rising cost of living. They can reduce taxes and user fees and subsidize vulnerable to partially shield them from the impacts.  

But these are band-aids put on what are bullet wounds for many.  And none of this pragmatic reality will stop the two major parties from trying to sway vulnerable voters with their ideological rhetoric, political propaganda and even spreading  misinformation in the weeks now and up to the election.

WHO WILL YOU TRUST TO GOVERN ON YOUR ISSUES?

The chart of the Abacus Data analysis of the most important issues shows who is perceived as the “most trusted to deal” with each issue.  This is an interesting issue prioritization, but also an indicator of the perceived  strength of each party on each issue. The clear dichotomy between the economic issue of trustworthiness of the rightwing UCP vs the social trustworthiness of the leftwing NPD is not surprising.  It shows where the fault line that divides our political culture.

There is utility in this information for the motivated majority of us who are independent,  nonpartisan, critical thinking citizens.  You likely fit into the Unsure category on some issues as you consider your personal what to vote for issues.  You could just as well be leaning to the left or the right on other concerns.  This information is not much help in deciding to vote based on party leadership or ideology, based on a for or against assessment call.

So remember, the world is run by those who show up and know what they want, and how to get it. That could be and should be you this election and afterwards.

Are You Alberta Party Curious?

There is an interesting piece in the Sunday Reader section of the Edmonton Journal on the Alberta Party written by Sheila Pratt. It shows that the Alberta Party is drawing attention and capturing the imagination of progressive thinking Albertans.  The article shows that there is a significant yearning for a different way of doing politics in our province.

The recent municipal elections have shown dramatic evidence of that thirst for change all over the province.  Many incumbent  candidates were rejected by the electorate in cities, towns. municipal districts and counties.  Edmonton is the exception but we made that shift in consciousness two elections ago.  We liked the direction and destination of our city and it continues to move forward with a progressive council and mayor.  So all incumbents in Edmonton were all re-elected.  The exception that proves the rule.

CHANGE IS WANTED BUT A CHANGE TO WHAT?
The problem about a change is what is the alternative to the traditional left versus right tedious model of politics as usual.  That old-style thinking about ideological and manipulative politics is very distrusted by most Albertans.  The majority of us respond apathetically by simply not voting.  The consciousness is changing now and people realize if they don't participate politically as informed  citizens, there are negative consequences. Disillusioned apathetic citizens can give away their political power to an alternative that is not reflective of their values and not aligned with their aspirations for Alberta.  Apathy is not just boring - it is dangerous.

There are some Albertans with hardcore social conservative and libertarian values that believe the Wildrose Alliance is the change answer for our political culture.  Their approach is to essentially eliminate government then privatize public policy on the presumption that the marketplace is the answer to all the social, environmental, economic and political problems we face, including health care.  That is not consistent with the dominant values of most Albertans.  But most of us don't vote so we could end up there by default...with nobody to blame but ourselves.

There are many who are nominally supportive of the Wildrose Alliance because they see it as a "place to park your vote and frown sternly at the PCs"  as University of Lethbridge political scientist Peter McCormick says in the Journal article.  But given another viable balanced, moderate and progressive political alternative like the Alberta Party, one has to question the real level of committed public support for the fundamentalist hardcore conservative politics of the Wildrose Alliance.

No doubt the Alberta Party has a long way to go and very little time to get ready for the next election - which is expected within a year.  It is making progress, getting traction and picking up speed.  I am told membership has doubled to over 900 in the 6 weeks since the end of October Policy Conference.  More Albertans are buying memberships and engaging the start of constituency associations, looking a leadership campaigns and considering being a candidate....but still more is needed for the Alberta Party to be a contender in the next election.

It will have over 40 constituency associations formed by the end of January and the rest of the province will be organized right afterwards.  The party leadership campaign begin in the new year.  The leadership campaigns will bring mainstream media attention to the Alberta Party and that will attract the attention of everyday Albertans to this new fresh political movement.  Albertans will become more Alberta Party curious as they hear about how we can do politics differently and move forward to a progressive future.

In the last Alberta election 60% of eligible voters could not be bothered to get informed about the candidates, the leaders, the party platforms or ever show up to vote.  The Alberta Party will be fishing in that large pond of citizen disenchantment.  It will offer a viable alternative to politics-as-usual and will attract soft and swing support from all the traditional political parties who are fed up with the old-style politics.

There are reasons for the Alberta Party to be cautiously optimistic about gaining greater voter support.  The citizen disaffection for all of the current political offerings and the longing for change is obvious.  There are some of us who were there in 1971 when Lougheed led the dramatic change from the tired, tedious and out of touch Social Credit government to a new modern, youthful forward thinking and energized kind of government.

There are signs that we are back to the future.  There is the emergence of a revitalized voter who showed up in the recent local elections in larger numbers and with a message to politicians.  This is another reason to believe things can change quickly and dramatically in the political culture of our Alberta.  The rejection of so many conformist incumbent candidates is another encouraging sign of the coming of real political change.  The election of so many younger, imaginative and progressive thinking candidates to local governments and school boards also adds to the sense of a sea change shift that is emerging in the political culture of the province.      

ALBERTANS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN CONSERVATIVE
On top of all that is some interesting research results we have discerned from the work of Reboot Alberta on the degree of shared values of progressive thinking Albertans compared to a random sampling the everyday average Albertan. The results are enormously encouraging for the progressive and fresh thinking of the Alberta Party.  We studied 22 value attributes of 644 self-selecting Alberta progressives within the Reboot Alberta citizens movement.  We wanted to find out what were the most vital values for progressive Albertans and what they wanted to see guide and drive politics and policy decisions of their government.

We did the same study with a statistically valid random sample of 568 Albertans so it is accurate at the +/-4% level.  We then compared the random results to the Reboot progressive citizens movement results.  We wanted to get a sense of how many progressive thinking people there are in Alberta.  We looked at the degree of alignment of the random results and compared them to the top quartile of the Roboot results.  This top quartile alignment of the two surveys is an indication of an excellent fit of the Alberta population with the progressive values of Reboot Alberta Influentials.  What we found is that 28% of Albertans are profoundly aligned with the Progressive values. 

When we compared the random results to the top two quartiles of the Reboot survey we found that 63% of everyday Albertans shared the same set of values as Reboot Alberta Progressives.  What is just as important is there was no difference between ages, genders or between rural and urban progressive thinking Albertan when you look at the random sample results.  Rural and urban Albertans share the same values, maybe not the same priority about issues but we Albertans are fundamentally the same kind of people...regardless of where we live.

If this extrapolation of the alignment of random sample of regular Albertan and the Reboot community is accurate that means the red-neck social conservative image of Alberta so "popular" in the rest of Canada is a myth.  It is a myth that needs to be debunked.   It also means there is a large untapped group of progressive thinking Albertans looking and longing for a political home and a political party they can believe in.  Could the Alberta Party be the answer to the quest for change for the 63% of us who want a real progressive government that reflects our values?

LOOK AT THE ALBERTA PARTY AS A PROGRESSIVE ALTERNATIVE
If you are Alberta Party curious, take a chance and go to the website, read the policy document and other items.  If you are curious about what is a Progressive go to that link on the Reboot Alberta  and read the commentaries. Then take a minute and look at the mix of young-old, male-female on the Alberta Party Board and ask yourself if this mix makes sense in how a new political party should look.  Can you see that the Alberta Party is on to something and serious about doing politics differently?  Is this new political movement something worthy of your support and involvement as a citizen? If you want real change we all know it is basically about taking personal responsibility.  We have to be the change we want to see.

So overcome your reluctance about political participation.  Take the leap and buy a membership in the Alberta Party.  Become active in the forthcoming party leadership selection process.  Share your engagement and enthusiasm with your family, friends, co-workers and your community.  Encourage them to revitalize their sense of empowerment as a citizen.  Ask them to consider joining the Alberta Party too.  After all it is still a free country and province...for now but that could change if you choose to stay disinterested in the future of our Alberta.