WILL ISSUES DRIVE YOUR VOTE?

In a previous post we challenged you to contemplate what worries you and what your public policy, government programs or democratic processes are on your mind .  We provided a 4H Framework Tool to focus and guide you through that analytical process. 

This decision making will come earlier for some and more challenging for others. What is keeping you up at night is usually more personal and family based. We don’t often see those life-challenges in political terms, but we can, and perhaps we should, depending of course on the nature of the problems.

Then there are the community-based concerns,  What is happening in your networks of friends, work, and activities from leisure to working situations that is impacting the  life of your and your family.  These are often matters of local government, institutions, or community organizational dynamics.  They could be matters of public safety, transportation, addiction, development, just to name a few.

Next we have the macro areas of concern that are at the provincial or federal government levels.  These are usually the ones in the news media coverage and tend to dominate partisan political messaging. 

WHAT ARE THE ISSUES?

According to a very recent Abacus Data survey, the top three policy issues on the minds of Albertans these days are:

#1 The Cost of Living (67%)

#2 Improving Health Care (50%)

#3 Managing the Alberta Economy (34%)

The next three top of mind issues are also interesting and cluster in the 21%-25% range of Albertans as most important.  They are:

#4 Keeping Taxes as Low as Possible (25%)

#5 Affordability of Housing (24%)

#6 Standing up for Alberta with the Federal Government (21%)

ARE YOU AN ISSUES-BASED VOTER?

Of course these are provincial based political issues but they may be part of your personal and community-based level of concern as well.  These issues are a good place to start to drill them down into a more granular and detailed consideration for you and your more specific concerns.

What is interesting in a political context for the coming election is which of the two legacy parties, the UCP and NDP, are “most trusted" to deal with the specific issues.  This can give some insight on the power of these issues to influence the outcome of the May election.  

For example, look at the issue of “Defending those working in the oil and gas sector.” This is all about the uncertainty of the global move to alternative sources of energy away from fossil fuels.  The politics about the “Just Transition” for energy sector workers is also part of the issue. 

The UCP, at 53% trust, has overwhelming trust to deal with this compared to the NDP at 20% trusting them to deal with the issues.  Also, there are 23% of Albertans who are “Unsure” of whom to trust to manage this issue.  That is a significant portion of the population.  

However, this issue is significantly important to only 14% of those Albertans surveyed.  So while the UCP is strong on this issue, it is not likely going to be determinative of the election outcome, if there is a good turnout of voters.  

POLITICAL POWER IN ORGANIZED ISSUE-BASED VOTERS

Remember the world is run by those who show up.  This is especially true at election time. What if this issue is a dominant vote driver for many who are feeling significantly impacted personally and in their communities, like oil and gas based rural Albertans.  If they organize around this issue, drive support and their fellow citizens of like minds show up, while others who could care less and are carelessly irresponsible about showing up to vote, this issue could end up being influential on the election outcome.

On the other end of the issues spectrum is the Cost of Living, critically important to 67% of the survey respondents. This shows how close this election could be, because 37% trust the UCP and 26% trust the NDP, 22% are unsure while 5% pick a Third Party to trust.  

In reality there is very little a provincial government can do about the cost of living.  They can’t control inflation in housing, food or transportation, which are some of the major contributors to the rising cost of living. They can reduce taxes and user fees and subsidize vulnerable to partially shield them from the impacts.  

But these are band-aids put on what are bullet wounds for many.  And none of this pragmatic reality will stop the two major parties from trying to sway vulnerable voters with their ideological rhetoric, political propaganda and even spreading  misinformation in the weeks now and up to the election.

WHO WILL YOU TRUST TO GOVERN ON YOUR ISSUES?

The chart of the Abacus Data analysis of the most important issues shows who is perceived as the “most trusted to deal” with each issue.  This is an interesting issue prioritization, but also an indicator of the perceived  strength of each party on each issue. The clear dichotomy between the economic issue of trustworthiness of the rightwing UCP vs the social trustworthiness of the leftwing NPD is not surprising.  It shows where the fault line that divides our political culture.

There is utility in this information for the motivated majority of us who are independent,  nonpartisan, critical thinking citizens.  You likely fit into the Unsure category on some issues as you consider your personal what to vote for issues.  You could just as well be leaning to the left or the right on other concerns.  This information is not much help in deciding to vote based on party leadership or ideology, based on a for or against assessment call.

So remember, the world is run by those who show up and know what they want, and how to get it. That could be and should be you this election and afterwards.

What's Going on in Alberta?

First a Disclaimer:

Angus Reid Institute does good work when it runs surveys.  They are far from perfect because there is no assured randomization in the sampling as they use online panels for responses. 

That said, their poll results are “true” for those who answered the survey.  But be careful in extrapolating any poll result in Canada as representative of the hearts and minds of your fellow citizens. 

That Said:

Angus Reid recently published a Three-Part morbidly fascinating poll of Canadian's attitudes about our politics and the state of citizen disengagement. 

I’m going to focus on Part 2 “More Believe Electoral System is Weakening than Becoming Stronger.” The survey asked, “...whether as series of  significant pillar of a strong democracy…were strengthening or weakening in this country.”  Spoiler Alert! Albertans are far and away in the belief that the pillars of Canadian democracy are growing weaker.

When asked “Thinking about each (pillar) would you say they are growing stronger or getting weaker in Canada, the Weaker responses were reported, and here are the comparative numbers:

THE RULE OF LAW APPLIED EQUALLY TO EVERYONE.

The UCP has passed a plethora of anti-democratic laws and erosion of the fuel of law. Think the Critical Infrastructure Defence Act and the Provincial Administrative Penalties Act for two primary examples.

53% of Canadians believe this is weakening and 67% of Albertans see this is weakening.

POWER IS INVESTED IN THE PEOPLE.

Reboot decries the excessive influence of dark money donors, the potential for extremists' takeover of political parties, and Political Action Committees' self-serving capacity to take over and control candidates.

51% of Canadians believe this is weakening and 69% of Albertans see this is weakening.

PROTECTION OF THE HUMAN RIGHTS OF EVERYONE.

The UCP is becoming increasingly Authoritarian and Fascistic in how it is governing. Look at the abusive Allan Public Inquiry into UnAblertan activities and the secret heavily funded, secretive, and unaccountable Kenney War Room designed for political propaganda purposes. Also, consider the abuse of LGBTQ students in public education and the destruction of GSA groups.

35% of Canadians believe this is weakening and 44% of Albertans see this is weakening.

FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS.

This is a serious concern for citizens and citizenship. We see the Republicans undermining this principle of Democracy. We have the UCP previous leadership election under Criminal Fraud investigation by the RCMP. The General Election has numerous Elections Alberta fines against illegal UCP campaign financing breaches.

34% of Canadians believe this is weakening and 58% of Albertans see this is weakening.

46% of 18-34 year old men say elections have become less free and fair. That is a dangerous group if they stay seriously disgruntled, feel excluded, and are disregarded.

EVERYONE CAN ACTIVELY PARTICIPATE IN THE POLITICS AND CIVIC LIFE IF THEY WANT.

Reboot Alberta is, at its essence, about the Citizenship Journey to enhance, enable and empower civic participation in politics and fixing our political culture.

24% of Canadians believe this is weakening and 35% of Albertans see this is weakening.

In all these questions  Albertans were rated the lowest on these beliefs.

• Only 62% of Albertans, again the lowest in the land, are “proud to live in Canada.” 14% are Unsure, the highest in the nation.

• 31% of Albertans agree that we have a “good system of government in Canada. 

• A mere 53% of Albertans feel that “Canada is a prosperous country.”

• Some 57% of Albertans believe Canadians are a “caring society.”

We are on a downward spiral in Alberta by the looks of this.  And this is only part of the survey findings.

Can Alberta Conservatives Win in 2019 and Deny Climate Change?

Abacus Data has a new on-line survey of 1534 Canadians randomly selected from a panel of 500,000 Canadians.  They weighted the responses to "match census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada's population" demographics.

Not sure that weighting is reliable or even possible.  The Harper government killed the long form census so we likely don't have a reliable base line to weigh against.  Harper did not want reliable statistical evidence  contradict or undermine his political agenda.

Prime Minister Trudeau's first policy move after being elected was to return the long form census so it may be possible that Abacus Data has those results to "weigh" against.  Are the results using this methodology truly representative of Canadian opinion and values?  I don't know but I have a serious suspicion of on-line panel responses.  Are they anything more than allegedly random samples using questionable sources where certain responses are weighted to induce or deem a representative sample?

That said, lets take a look at what the survey purports to discover in the context of what political policy should be on climate change if a political party wants to be reflective of the will of citizens and victorious at election time.

Abacus says that back in the day "...politicians who chose to be early champions of action to reduce emissions were running a certain amount of political risk."  Carbon emission consequences were not fully formed in the public consciousness.  However, "Today in Canada, the risk equation has changed. the bigger political peril lie in appearing indifferent to a matter of widespread and growing public perception."

If this survey is accurate half of Canadian voters (49%) won't even consider a party or a candidate that doesn't have a plan to combat climate change.   Only 6% prefer a party or a candidate that ignores the issue.

If ignoring the issue of climate change is the same as denying it exists then are Conservatives, including those in Alberta, in trouble next election?  Yup, but only if climate change is an election is a significant enough issue in the minds of voters.  Consider this survey finding.  "The rest (44%) are 'willing to consider' a party that doesn't make the climate a priority."

Abacus' analysis on the 44% says "For Canada's conservative parties and candidates, an optimistic read of these numbers is that the Conservatives cold win without an ambitious plan given that half of the population don't consider this policy a pre-requisite for their support."  They go one to warn Conservatives that ignoring the climate change issues would be "tying on hand behind their backs, leaving them no room for error."

Environmentalism has changed in Canada and is now a "moderate" concern for 78% of Canadians.  Only 11% see themselves as "ardent" environmentalists and another 11% are indifferent.  There are 68% of us how attribute climate change to human and industrial causes, 21% say its just natural phenomenon and 2% are climate change deniers.

Obviously one way to defeat the KenneyCons (a.k.a. the UCP) in Alberta is to elevate climate change action into a ballot box issue.  How might that happen?  Well we need to be sure the voting public understands and appreciates the consequences of inaction or inept half-hearted action on climate change.

That may already be the case given the Abacus survey found 85% of us said "...taking no action on climate change will be severe, very severe, or catastrophic across a wide range of areas..." including agriculture, human health and insurance access, taxpayer costs of rebuilding after disasters to name a few.  The momentum is for action so says 63% versus 37% who want" to do little or nothing" about climate change.

Here's the kicker for inert Conservatives on climate change.  There is an enormous moral responsibility as 91% say taking action on climate change is a duty to future generations.  While 47% believe the damage is already done, we are past the tipping point and there is "...little chance we could  stop climate change at this point."  Contrast that with 87% who feel there is "already lots of evidence we can cut emissions when we try."  And, get this shift, 79% believe "...combating climate change will open up economic opportunities."

So the old-line HarperCons climate change denier stance is no longer tenable as sound political platform.  The environment is not perceived as a trade-off with the economy nor is it a barrier to growth, in fact is is a catalyst for growth, responsible sustainable growth and a competitive advantage. 

Will the KenneyCon UCP base in Alberta, that now is really the same old HarperCon fundamentalist  social conservative crowd, accept this shift in public perception and deny being deniers?  Will a UCP shift to rhetoric on responsible sustainable economic development that stewards the environment be credible to Alberta progressive voters?

I'm betting no to both propositions.  That doesn't mean the UCP loses the next election.  But making the integrated comprehensive mutually positive relationship between the environment and the economy as a major ballot box issue is a great start to defeating Kenney next election, 

If you want to dig deeper into the Abacus survey the link is here...