Whether to Vote in Bad Weather Key to Third Place

Leger Marketing Poll of PC party members of record as at November 6th and polled between November 18 and 21 has some telling findings. We all know it has limitations because many campaigns have not turned in their memberships and many that were turned in did not have phone numbers so they were not contacted. The randomness is not in question but there is some self-selection at play all the time and especially here. Like do we know how many calls they had to make to get 801 who were prepared to answer the questions? Were the no-phones from a specific region? It all could have an impact on the results.

That aside, there are some interesting findings and scenarios that could emerge. Long shots with a chance result in big payoffs when they come in. Looks like Dave Hancock is a long shot with a chance with a strong second position showing in Edmonton.

The analysis is later in this posting but the question is will Edmonton deliver for Hancock given his base in the Capital City? Will Edmonton come to realize that with local support that he can make a real difference in the second ballot outcome? Will Edmonton show up for Hancock? If so he could be on the second ballot.

First: It is a two horse race between Dinning and Morton and both are likely to be on the second ballot. Now they have to see how committed their support really is and will they get out the vote in bad weather? It is a momentum game too and Morton has “MO.” The key question now is who is going to be the third man on the next ballot. Here we can say with great confidence that anything is possible.

Secondly Oberg is down and with the news today – he may now be out of the running. Today the Auditor General commenting on a 2004 provincial election campaign contribution from a “wholly owned corporation of Metis Settlements” to Minister Pearl Calahasen, an Oberg supporter. That contribution was, according to the Auditor General, “...contrary to the Elections Finances and Contributions Disclosure Act.”

The AG has referred the matter to the Chief Electoral Officer and I woujld not be surprised if Alberta Justice is looking at it too. This is not about Dr. Oberg directly but Oberg did not need more grief and yet another credibility “incident” to raise questions about his suitability to govern. He will have to comment on this publicly and in the final days of the campaign. Will this cause his soft supporters to stay home, the undecideds to discount and any potential for new growth to evaporate.

Thirdly, who is third? The candidate's regional differences are starting to show up in the Leger poll. Calgary is a two horse town with Dinning at 30% and Morton at 23%. Everyone else is out of it but therre is still an undecided of 28% four day before the first ballot - OUCH!

Outside of Edmonton and Calgary is also a two horse race with Morton at 20% and Stelmach at 18%. Dinning and Oberg are 13% and 12% respectively. Nobody else is in the hunt outside the major cities. The undecided is 27% and if the rural voters dessert Oberg and show up for Stelmach then Ed could be the third man in.

Edmonton is the least undecided at 21% but the most volatile. Arguably also a two horse race with Dinning at 20% and Hancock at 14% but the pack range from 9% for Stelmach, 10% Norris and 11% for each of Oberg and Morton.

This Edmonton showing is encouraging to the Hancock campaign. They have this much Edmonton support and they had not yet turned in their Edmonton memberships. Their supporter base was not polled and they are still a strong second place. If Edmonton show up for Hancock and Oberg’s Edmonton support stays home or goes to Morton, then Hancock could catch and pass Oberg and make the cut for the second ballot. That would be interesting.

Lots of “ifs” and a long shot for sure but this is politics and strange things happen all the time. It may all come down to the “weather” and the “whether.” Bad weather and indifference by people as to whether they feel they make a difference by voting are all at play here.

Showing up for Hancock in Edmonton and showing up in rural Alberta for Stelmach can make a big difference to the end result on December 2nd.

Win, Place and Show

Leger poll newspaper reports today indicate my earlier information was correct yesterday.

This is all about a second ballot race for third place now. Lots of undecided voters still and lots of memberships have not been turned in by campaigns because there is no need to. There is lots of “plus and minus” machinations still to be played with in any “analysis” of these results.

My guess is in a province of 3.2 million people; my guess fewer than 85,000 will show up in the end to cast select the next Premier for the province. That is political leverage. Too bad it is due to indifference and not design.

Next week will be really interesting.

New Poll Coming Out Tomorrow

My info is there is the new poll coming out tomorrow. It polled PC members but only those who have had their membership cards turned in to the party. Lots of campaigns have held back their membership so it is informative but not conclusive.

There is a horse race between Dinning and Morton. Oberg has fallen back into a pack for third place and the pack is way back behind the top two.

Saturday is getting more interesting all the time.

Character+Competence+Commitment+Caring=Dave Hancock

As readers know, I am a keen proponent of Dave Hancock for the next leader of the PC party. This Blog is full of postings as to the reasons why. In summary my support is about character, competence, commitment and caring. Look up any of those words in the dictionary and you should find a picture of Dave Hancock every time.

That is what we Albertans' should think about as we vote this weekend. We need to find a new kind of learder and Premier, not just someone else to full the office. That new kind of leader is Dave Hancock. So take the plunge, join the PC Party and show up on Saturday and vote for Dave Hancock. Then you know you will be making a real difference about the future of Alberta.

I am also a keen progressive when it comes to politics. I like the conservative aspect of the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta too. I especially like the idea of conservation as a concept that needs to be embedded and more obvious stated as part of the “Conservative” element of modern politics and the PC Party of Alberta.

Conservation in my mind is a broad principle that embraces the environment, a long term view of economic prosperity, natural resource based stewardship and people centred concerns like social cohesion and inclusion.

The progressive part of what I see in Alberta’s future has to foster our cultural creative people. People have heard of Richard Florida’s book on the subject. The foundational book about cultural creatives is “The Cultural Creatives” by Paul Ray and Sherry Ruth Anderson in 2000.

You will hear more about this from me post leadership but as a break and segue take a minute and do the "Are You a Cultural Creative" Questionnaire. It says a lot about and to Progressives as well.

Cultural Creative and Progressives have to get organized and focused just like Social Conservatives have done. This questionnaire is a start to those ends.

Please let me know your thoughts on this idea of the Cultural Creative and Progressives getting organized politically as well.

The Enlightened Savage Has Perspective

I have just read a Blog, The Enlightened Savage that I think has some of the best comments, insights and profiles of the leadership candidates.

It is definitely worth a read.