For those who think Rona Ambrose was benched or even marginalized in the recent Harper Cabinet shuffle, should think again. Sure she is no longer on the short leash she suffered as Environment Minister. That issue is becoming the “hot button” political and policy area leading up to the next election and the jury is out on John Baird . I am still optimistic he will get enough latitude to change things in the Harper government culture.
Intergovernmental Affairs is a brain trust portfolio with lot of interesting issues and complexity. This is a perfect place for someone like Ambrose who loves a challenge with interesting issues and moving targets and drama. I have noted in earlier postings I expect Ambrose to flourish in this arena.
The equally, if not more interesting development coming out of the Cabinet shuffle for Ambrose are the side bars to her appointment. As head of Western Economic Diversification I expect she will become very activitist as the face of the Harper government in the WED primary areas community development, innovation and entrepreneurship throughout the west. This should help assure her re-election and allow her to do some good too.
The other very interesting sidebar is her influence as President of the Queen’s Privy Council and her committee assignments. She sits on three of the seven key Cabinet committees and two of them are chaired by Jim Prentice the de facto Deputy Prime Minister. Prentice, by the way, sits or chairs a full five committees and takes care of a full portfolio as well as being the political Minister for Alberta. Jim Prentice has to be the hardest working guy on the Hill.
Ambrose sits on Prentice’s Operations Committee that does the day-to-day coordination of the government agenda, issues management, legislation, house planning and communications. All of it is critical stuff for the continuing success of the Harper government going into the next election.
The next Ambrose committee is Social Affairs that deals with issues around health care, justice, aboriginal, training and skills development, culture and immigration policy issues. Again we see a plethora of critical issues and concern to Canadians.
Finally she sits on the new Environment and Energy Security Committee that is chaired again by Prentice. Here is the place where the environment and the economy will be balanced with concerns over energy security ad related policy issues.
Anyone who thinks Ambrose is out of the loop in this Cabinet shuffle is not looking at the devil in the details and the fine print behind the press releases. To focus on the typical personality driven news noise coverage of who is in, who is out, who is a comer and who is falling from grace is to miss a great deal of the import and impact of the shuffle. By any objective measure Ambrose has done very well through it all.
Monday, January 08, 2007
Stephen "Kermit" Harper Goes Green
Stephen “Kermit” Harper is now saying it isn’t going to be easy being green but be green he must, according to the headline in the Globe and Mail today.
It wasn’t long ago he was saying it wasn’t all that important to be green because a 1% GST cut and $4 bucks a day for families to provide child care was more critical. The introduction of the underwhelming Clean Air Act had such a long fuse before anything real happens that it was not seen as anything like the greening of the Cons.
Then the opinion polls putting the environment as the #1 political and public policy issue started to pile up. Harper all of a sudden started paying attention. He is now saying everything has changed. All of a sudden the Cons are abandoning their anti-Liberal political rhetoric. The mantra “…that the Liberals did nothing on the environment for 13 years” or “GHG emissions went up 30% during the Liberal government watch” is about to disappear. It wasn't working anyway.
Now Prime Minister Harper appears to be running hard to catch up to the environment issues bandwagon. He now knows he has to if he hopes to win a majority government in any pending election.
He is admitting in the G&M that “Emissions of greenhouse gases are on track to rise dramatically over the next five years. He pledges to “do a lot more” about the environment with his new Minister at the helm but also seems to accept that Canada will be 50% over Kyoto targets by 2012. So much for blaming the Liberals for past sins. Harper's government is finally accepting the reality of climate change and admitting it can’t be fixed overnight but that it must be fixed.
Don’t you love it when political rhetoric has to bow to the facts and a more honest positioning of policy issues ensue? It is not like Harper has not been active on the environment front. Look at all the environment programs Harper’s government has cancelled in the past year, from home retrofits to funding Ontario’s coal plant shutdowns. One suspects a major motivation was simply because they were Liberal ideas and therefore, by definition, without merit.
The Decima poll of January 4 has some very bad news for the Cons. Decima’s numbers show that most of those who voted Con in the last election don’t yet think the environment is the big issue. Only 12% of Con voters cite it as #1. To 13% of them health care is still #1. The voters for all other parties are in a very different world from the Cons. All of them identified the environment and the #1 issue.
The Greens were not surprisingly the most vociferous group at 35% picking it as #1. That a lower number than I would have expected of the Greens but perhaps it shows they are no longer just a one issue party. 30% of the Bloc voters, 27% of NDP supporters and 22% of Liberals see the environment as the #1 issue facing the country. The Con voters are clearly not main stream on this issue.
I want to accept Harper’s green conversion as real and authentic. I will be giving the Harper Cons the benefit of the doubt and be waiting to see what they actually do. They sure have a long way to go to be worthy of our trust and to prove that they actually “get it.”
Harper will be running against his own party's inclinations if he really goes green. But can’t win a majority unless he convinces Canadians he gets it and means it. He has to also be convincing to Canadians as to his sincerity and most importantly, that he is capable and trustworthy on the issues.
To his reform/alliance oriented conservative base all this dramatic change in focus may be too much to ask. I wonder how many of them will continue supporting his leadership if they feel brtrayed by himne again. Think Income Trust!
To the majority of Canadians being green is now expected of their government. Harper will need time to make his turnaround credible to Canadians and to reassure his reform/alliance base that he has not abandoned them in their quest to bury the old Liberals in the next election. Unfortunately for Harper and the Cons main stream Canadians do not identify Dion's leadership with the old Liberal arrogance and corruption. They have moved on!
You can bet voters will be staying “attuned" and it is going to be very interesting.
It wasn’t long ago he was saying it wasn’t all that important to be green because a 1% GST cut and $4 bucks a day for families to provide child care was more critical. The introduction of the underwhelming Clean Air Act had such a long fuse before anything real happens that it was not seen as anything like the greening of the Cons.
Then the opinion polls putting the environment as the #1 political and public policy issue started to pile up. Harper all of a sudden started paying attention. He is now saying everything has changed. All of a sudden the Cons are abandoning their anti-Liberal political rhetoric. The mantra “…that the Liberals did nothing on the environment for 13 years” or “GHG emissions went up 30% during the Liberal government watch” is about to disappear. It wasn't working anyway.
Now Prime Minister Harper appears to be running hard to catch up to the environment issues bandwagon. He now knows he has to if he hopes to win a majority government in any pending election.
He is admitting in the G&M that “Emissions of greenhouse gases are on track to rise dramatically over the next five years. He pledges to “do a lot more” about the environment with his new Minister at the helm but also seems to accept that Canada will be 50% over Kyoto targets by 2012. So much for blaming the Liberals for past sins. Harper's government is finally accepting the reality of climate change and admitting it can’t be fixed overnight but that it must be fixed.
Don’t you love it when political rhetoric has to bow to the facts and a more honest positioning of policy issues ensue? It is not like Harper has not been active on the environment front. Look at all the environment programs Harper’s government has cancelled in the past year, from home retrofits to funding Ontario’s coal plant shutdowns. One suspects a major motivation was simply because they were Liberal ideas and therefore, by definition, without merit.
The Decima poll of January 4 has some very bad news for the Cons. Decima’s numbers show that most of those who voted Con in the last election don’t yet think the environment is the big issue. Only 12% of Con voters cite it as #1. To 13% of them health care is still #1. The voters for all other parties are in a very different world from the Cons. All of them identified the environment and the #1 issue.
The Greens were not surprisingly the most vociferous group at 35% picking it as #1. That a lower number than I would have expected of the Greens but perhaps it shows they are no longer just a one issue party. 30% of the Bloc voters, 27% of NDP supporters and 22% of Liberals see the environment as the #1 issue facing the country. The Con voters are clearly not main stream on this issue.
I want to accept Harper’s green conversion as real and authentic. I will be giving the Harper Cons the benefit of the doubt and be waiting to see what they actually do. They sure have a long way to go to be worthy of our trust and to prove that they actually “get it.”
Harper will be running against his own party's inclinations if he really goes green. But can’t win a majority unless he convinces Canadians he gets it and means it. He has to also be convincing to Canadians as to his sincerity and most importantly, that he is capable and trustworthy on the issues.
To his reform/alliance oriented conservative base all this dramatic change in focus may be too much to ask. I wonder how many of them will continue supporting his leadership if they feel brtrayed by himne again. Think Income Trust!
To the majority of Canadians being green is now expected of their government. Harper will need time to make his turnaround credible to Canadians and to reassure his reform/alliance base that he has not abandoned them in their quest to bury the old Liberals in the next election. Unfortunately for Harper and the Cons main stream Canadians do not identify Dion's leadership with the old Liberal arrogance and corruption. They have moved on!
You can bet voters will be staying “attuned" and it is going to be very interesting.
Saturday, January 06, 2007
Too Many Unanswered Questions on Goverment Credit Card Incident
It was with great dismay that I read in the recent media accounts about a leaked memo around an inappropriate private purpose credit charge on a government credit card by an E.A. to a former Alberta Cabinet Minister.
I know the former E.A. who is involved. I am disappointed in the obvious lack of judgment he has displayed, and admitted to, regarding this issue. Paying the money back is the minimum response one could expect and at least that was done.
Those actions, to my mind, are beyond inappropriate. They are also a breach of the public’s trust. Not in the lawyer’s sense of a private breach of trust but in the public’s context. We need to be able to trust our governors, and their political staff, to exercise sound judgment in the public interest. An Executive Assistant to a Minister of the Crown is directly involved in our system of governance and we need to be confident and assured that they too are worthy of our trust and they are acting in the public’s interest.
We don’t need agree with everything our governors say and do. But we ought to be able to rest assured they are always acting in ways that THEY believe is in OUR BEST INTEREST and that they can explain how they see their actions serving that end. We can disagree with a policy, an opinion and a judgment call, but the least we can expect is to be fully informed and advised about them at all times.
I am disturbed by some of the alleged facts I have read in the MSM surrounding this incident as well. I feel neither informed nor advised from what I know so far. I have questions about what we know and don’t know and why the government has not been cooperating with a full disclosure of all the records and facts involved.
I don’t like what I see and sense about some of the timing and sequences of events surrounding this incident. While the funds were paid back I wonder how long a time had elapsed after the debt was incurred. When was the incident disclosed to the appropriate departmental authorities and what did they do in response? Why wasn’t the matter immediately turned over to the Auditor General to deal with? Why did he first find out about this from the media, like I did?
Were there immediate remediation, mitigation and disciplinary actions taken or did this all only come to light after the Minister’s loss of the 2004 election and as the E.A. was leaving government? Was this Las Vegas trip a single event or was there a pattern of actions here? And if so what are the details as to timing, amounts and frequency of any pattern? Has this happened before involving other parties, and if so, how was it handled? How big is this problem in our government?
Why has the government refused to turn over the records even when asked to do so by the Privacy Commissioner, who apparently agrees with the media that they ought to be made public? Now the Auditor General is investigating and he is also after the records. I trust that at least he will have full and unfettered access to them and will make them public in a timely way. And I trust he will be able to “follow the money” as well.
All this happened before the PC Party chose Ed Stelmach as our leader and the next Premier of Alberta. Since then Premier Stelmach’s identified five priorities for his government. At the top of the list is to “Govern with Integrity and Transparency.” He has recently demonstrated some of his personal commitment to that priority in dealing decisively with an allegation of a fast track promotion of his son in the Solicitor General department. With this credit card incident, he has just been handed his first real leadership test of this top priority. I expect he will rise to the occasion when he returns from holidays next week.
I know the former E.A. who is involved. I am disappointed in the obvious lack of judgment he has displayed, and admitted to, regarding this issue. Paying the money back is the minimum response one could expect and at least that was done.
Those actions, to my mind, are beyond inappropriate. They are also a breach of the public’s trust. Not in the lawyer’s sense of a private breach of trust but in the public’s context. We need to be able to trust our governors, and their political staff, to exercise sound judgment in the public interest. An Executive Assistant to a Minister of the Crown is directly involved in our system of governance and we need to be confident and assured that they too are worthy of our trust and they are acting in the public’s interest.
We don’t need agree with everything our governors say and do. But we ought to be able to rest assured they are always acting in ways that THEY believe is in OUR BEST INTEREST and that they can explain how they see their actions serving that end. We can disagree with a policy, an opinion and a judgment call, but the least we can expect is to be fully informed and advised about them at all times.
I am disturbed by some of the alleged facts I have read in the MSM surrounding this incident as well. I feel neither informed nor advised from what I know so far. I have questions about what we know and don’t know and why the government has not been cooperating with a full disclosure of all the records and facts involved.
I don’t like what I see and sense about some of the timing and sequences of events surrounding this incident. While the funds were paid back I wonder how long a time had elapsed after the debt was incurred. When was the incident disclosed to the appropriate departmental authorities and what did they do in response? Why wasn’t the matter immediately turned over to the Auditor General to deal with? Why did he first find out about this from the media, like I did?
Were there immediate remediation, mitigation and disciplinary actions taken or did this all only come to light after the Minister’s loss of the 2004 election and as the E.A. was leaving government? Was this Las Vegas trip a single event or was there a pattern of actions here? And if so what are the details as to timing, amounts and frequency of any pattern? Has this happened before involving other parties, and if so, how was it handled? How big is this problem in our government?
Why has the government refused to turn over the records even when asked to do so by the Privacy Commissioner, who apparently agrees with the media that they ought to be made public? Now the Auditor General is investigating and he is also after the records. I trust that at least he will have full and unfettered access to them and will make them public in a timely way. And I trust he will be able to “follow the money” as well.
All this happened before the PC Party chose Ed Stelmach as our leader and the next Premier of Alberta. Since then Premier Stelmach’s identified five priorities for his government. At the top of the list is to “Govern with Integrity and Transparency.” He has recently demonstrated some of his personal commitment to that priority in dealing decisively with an allegation of a fast track promotion of his son in the Solicitor General department. With this credit card incident, he has just been handed his first real leadership test of this top priority. I expect he will rise to the occasion when he returns from holidays next week.
Thursday, January 04, 2007
Harper Shuffles Big Time Hoping to Buy Some Time
The personality issues are interesting gossip but the subtleties are where you will find the real substance of these Cabinet changes. Stephen Harper sharpens his focus, fixes some problems and I believe he enhances his Cabinet’s capacity too.
My guess is he is trying to delay the inevitable election from this spring to the fall with this shift in focus and this significant shuffle. He needs to buy some time to show he can govern affirmatively and not just be an alternative to the old Liberal regime.
The recent Liberal leadership change to Dion has seen public move beyond the angst and anger at the old Liberals. Change is in the air but who represent change is undecided given recent poll results with the Libs and Cons in a dead heat.
This desire to delay a federal election gives Charest elbow room to go to the polls in Quebec first with the support of a favourable Harper Budget. The polls are not positive for any party right now and too close to call. Harper wants some time to bring up the Cons numbers to where he can feel comfortable going into an election. There is not a clear consensus from the polls that the public wants an earlier election either and the opposition parties are all far from ready.
The shuffle give a sharper governance focus with Rona Ambrose in Intergovernmental Affairs and responsibility for the Western Economic Diversification. The MSM will harp on where she came “from” but the real story is where she is “going.”
This is a very smart strategic move by the Prime Minister as it speaks to the Ambrose strengths and takes advantage of her political credibility, especially in Alberta. Lots of fed-prov complexity looming and a need for real relationship building here. Ambrose will be good at it and will thrive in this new role.
Baird in Environment will get in trouble quickly if he keeps his pit bull approach to politics especially with the sophisticated ENGOs and the industry sectors. If he makes some significant serious changes quickly that are more closely aligned with the values and concerns of Canadians he will be one of the most effective Harper Ministers. If the Clean Air Act culture of hype and hyperbole ("smog and mirrors")persists with no serious political engagement, then Baird will be the new Ambrose. Expect his courage, capability, influence and adaptability to be tested very quickly.
Nicholson in Justice and Toews out will not be reassuring to the religious right and the future of their social conservative policy agenda. It signals that Harper does not want a focus on social conservative issues so expect Nicholson to put a lid on it until after the next election. Toews in Treasury Board tells me the new Budget and planning for 2007 is virtually a done deal by Baird already. Toews will likely be a caretaker on a short leash from the Prime Minister who is going to be the only real power in Treasury Board going forward.
The sleeper issue is the new focus on Seniors with another Senator appointed to Cabinet. With Marjory LeBreton’s appointment we can expect some serious new attention to this neglected sector of Harper's former Alliance/Reform base. The fear is that these folks are significantly disenchanted with the Harper government and could stayh home next election. This mean we can expect some tax reforms and program goodies in the pending Budget to overcome the perception of political neglect and the impact of the Income Trust decision on these fixed income seniors.
Keeping Prentice in place is the smartest “move” overall in this shuffle. I was right about Prentice in an earlier post but wrong on Rajotte being called to “the show.” Glad about the former, sad about the latter.
The rest is more like deck chair changes of no real consequence but it is good to see more women in and the smart politics of more Quebec involvement too. Not all of the problems have been fixed, like Defence and Heritage where there are some very hot buttons pending on procurement processes. The mean spirited recent Heritage social program cuts will come home to roost with political consequences too.
The overarching open question still is has the PM learn to share authority and responsibility or is he still going be the THE government and the de facto Minister of Everything!
My guess is he is trying to delay the inevitable election from this spring to the fall with this shift in focus and this significant shuffle. He needs to buy some time to show he can govern affirmatively and not just be an alternative to the old Liberal regime.
The recent Liberal leadership change to Dion has seen public move beyond the angst and anger at the old Liberals. Change is in the air but who represent change is undecided given recent poll results with the Libs and Cons in a dead heat.
This desire to delay a federal election gives Charest elbow room to go to the polls in Quebec first with the support of a favourable Harper Budget. The polls are not positive for any party right now and too close to call. Harper wants some time to bring up the Cons numbers to where he can feel comfortable going into an election. There is not a clear consensus from the polls that the public wants an earlier election either and the opposition parties are all far from ready.
The shuffle give a sharper governance focus with Rona Ambrose in Intergovernmental Affairs and responsibility for the Western Economic Diversification. The MSM will harp on where she came “from” but the real story is where she is “going.”
This is a very smart strategic move by the Prime Minister as it speaks to the Ambrose strengths and takes advantage of her political credibility, especially in Alberta. Lots of fed-prov complexity looming and a need for real relationship building here. Ambrose will be good at it and will thrive in this new role.
Baird in Environment will get in trouble quickly if he keeps his pit bull approach to politics especially with the sophisticated ENGOs and the industry sectors. If he makes some significant serious changes quickly that are more closely aligned with the values and concerns of Canadians he will be one of the most effective Harper Ministers. If the Clean Air Act culture of hype and hyperbole ("smog and mirrors")persists with no serious political engagement, then Baird will be the new Ambrose. Expect his courage, capability, influence and adaptability to be tested very quickly.
Nicholson in Justice and Toews out will not be reassuring to the religious right and the future of their social conservative policy agenda. It signals that Harper does not want a focus on social conservative issues so expect Nicholson to put a lid on it until after the next election. Toews in Treasury Board tells me the new Budget and planning for 2007 is virtually a done deal by Baird already. Toews will likely be a caretaker on a short leash from the Prime Minister who is going to be the only real power in Treasury Board going forward.
The sleeper issue is the new focus on Seniors with another Senator appointed to Cabinet. With Marjory LeBreton’s appointment we can expect some serious new attention to this neglected sector of Harper's former Alliance/Reform base. The fear is that these folks are significantly disenchanted with the Harper government and could stayh home next election. This mean we can expect some tax reforms and program goodies in the pending Budget to overcome the perception of political neglect and the impact of the Income Trust decision on these fixed income seniors.
Keeping Prentice in place is the smartest “move” overall in this shuffle. I was right about Prentice in an earlier post but wrong on Rajotte being called to “the show.” Glad about the former, sad about the latter.
The rest is more like deck chair changes of no real consequence but it is good to see more women in and the smart politics of more Quebec involvement too. Not all of the problems have been fixed, like Defence and Heritage where there are some very hot buttons pending on procurement processes. The mean spirited recent Heritage social program cuts will come home to roost with political consequences too.
The overarching open question still is has the PM learn to share authority and responsibility or is he still going be the THE government and the de facto Minister of Everything!
Wednesday, January 03, 2007
Alberta's Economy is "Moderating."
The Alberta marketplace looks like it is starting to adjust to the new realities of labour shortages “…once again the most limiting factor affecting business activity” according to the Alberta Treasury Branch’s “Business Sentiments Index.” Anticipation for the first Quarter of 2007 shows Alberta business still expects strong growth with an Index rating of 140.2 but not at the levels of the last Quarter of 2006 when the Index had a record 163.1 Index rating.
Construction prices are still expected to rise and that makes for some interesting challenges for the Stelmach government who are committed to closing the public infrastructure gap caused by years of neglect.
Hiring intentions are down slightly in all sectors except the Professional and Technical Services which remained steady between the end of 2006 and the beginning of 2007. Business activity in this sector is still expected to grow significanly next year so planning and design for new projects is continuing, building them is moderating.
Oil and Gas, Manufacturing and Construction anticipation for early 2007 is for a moderated business growth but still remaining relatively strong. We can see this reflected in a number of major project second phases that are being delayed. The new recently approved oil sands megaprojects like Suncor Voyageur and Shell Albion are still going full steam ahead and will be corralling the available skilled workforce.
Our research at Cambridge Strategies indicates that managing growth is one of the top public policy issues facing the Stelmach government. Smart governments are appropriately hesitant to interfere in the marketplace. Based on this ATB data, it looks like they will not need to intervene. The market itself is starting to moderate Alberta’s growth in the face of unrealistic project costs and the lack of skilled labour is doing it already.
Now will costs reduce too? Not anticipated in the ATB data, in fact the sentiment is they will continue to escalate but for how long...that is the $100 Billion Dollar (Plus)question. Maybe the Second Quarter ATB Business Sentiments Index will tell us more. I will let you know.
Construction prices are still expected to rise and that makes for some interesting challenges for the Stelmach government who are committed to closing the public infrastructure gap caused by years of neglect.
Hiring intentions are down slightly in all sectors except the Professional and Technical Services which remained steady between the end of 2006 and the beginning of 2007. Business activity in this sector is still expected to grow significanly next year so planning and design for new projects is continuing, building them is moderating.
Oil and Gas, Manufacturing and Construction anticipation for early 2007 is for a moderated business growth but still remaining relatively strong. We can see this reflected in a number of major project second phases that are being delayed. The new recently approved oil sands megaprojects like Suncor Voyageur and Shell Albion are still going full steam ahead and will be corralling the available skilled workforce.
Our research at Cambridge Strategies indicates that managing growth is one of the top public policy issues facing the Stelmach government. Smart governments are appropriately hesitant to interfere in the marketplace. Based on this ATB data, it looks like they will not need to intervene. The market itself is starting to moderate Alberta’s growth in the face of unrealistic project costs and the lack of skilled labour is doing it already.
Now will costs reduce too? Not anticipated in the ATB data, in fact the sentiment is they will continue to escalate but for how long...that is the $100 Billion Dollar (Plus)question. Maybe the Second Quarter ATB Business Sentiments Index will tell us more. I will let you know.
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