Will Peter Lougheed's Comments Set the Alberta-Ottawa Agenda?

UPDATE: AUG 18 - I recommend you read Blogger and lawyer Robert Janes take on the implication of the Lougheed comments. His URL is http://rjmjanes.blogspot.com/2007/08/environment-clash-predicted.html

You have to love it (or be terrified depending on which side of the issue you are on) when a news story takes on a life of its own. Such is the case with the former Alberta Premier Peter Lougheed and the comments he made at the recent Canadian Bar Association earlier this week.

I promised on Wednesday to comment further on Mr. Lougheed’s speech once I had read it. I have requested a copy but have not read it because I can’t. His office replied to my request as follows: “Unfortunately a copy of the speech is not available as Mr. Lougheed delivered the speech by reference to his personal notes.”

Fair enough, he is a gifted speaker and very knowledgeable on the subject matter. He has commented on issues of the pace of oil sands development and the ecological and social impacts and implications before. His comments last Tuesday at the annual gathering of the Canadian Bar Association. I checked the CBA website and it does not even identify Mr. Lougheed as being on the program of their meetings in Calgary this past week. Hummm!

One can't help but wonder about the forum, timing and the motivation behind Mr. Lougheed's comments. For me, this initiative of Peter Lougheed is pure political theatre of the highest order, and I applaud it. His political instincts are as sharp as ever. You have to admire how he has skillfully and politically positioned issues, created an event and defined relationships in one carefully constructed stream of consciousness.

Even without a written text, one can conclude Mr. Lougheed’s remarks were not made as an aside nor were they impromptu. That has never been his method of operation. These remarks have to be his considered opinion and that opinion is foreboding and politically charged.

Already John Baird, the federal Environment Minister is in full damage control. When Lougheed says the emerging and inevitable fed-prov battle looming between Alberta and Canada “will be ten times greater than in the past.” Baird’s pull quote in the Edmonton Journal today says it all. “Our government would never do what was done with the national energy policy of the early 80’s.” Ouch!

While Lougheed is reported as “surmising” about such matters in his speech, everyone should realize that he is not unschooled in such matters. He was Alberta’s Premier in the days of the National Energy Policy, which is believed by many to be the sole source of the demise of Alberta’s economy and destruction of our emerging political clout in the 80’s.

So here we have, it one man with great influence and respect, making some significant personal observations at a forum where he appears not even to be on the program. Serendipity or opportunism? Does that matter? His comments focused on some of the most serious issues of the day. The rapid and pronounced media uptake with front page headlines of his warnings have resurrected past ghosts and bogeymen.

In one carefully considered trip to the podium Peter Lougheed has actually done more to set the future political agenda of Alberta and focus it around the critical relationship between the energy economy and emerging ecology issues. He has also done much to frame the politics on this policy concern in terms of good old Canadian jurisdictional wars between Alberta and Canada.

The major difference is that the constitutional and jurisdictional wars Lougheed sees this time has Ottawa controlled by Harper, a power controlling, centralizing Conservative. In Lougheed’s NEP wars he dealt with Pierre Trudeau, a centralizing and power controlling Liberal Prime Minister.

One wonders, based on reports of Lougheed’s comments this week, if he sees this change in leadership as a distinction without a difference when it comes to taking on Alberta...or is Ottawa just Ottawa where Alberta is concerned?

Pembina Institute Poll Shows Albertans Reject Intensity Targets for GHGs

While one can argue over the sample size of only 500, the results are so conclusive that margin of error makes no difference in the final result of some key findings of the Pembina Institute recently sponsored poll.

One finding from the poll is being billed in the Blogs as Albertans rejecting John Blair’s green efforts on intensity standards for GHG emissions. The polls shows that 70 per cent of Albertans support absolute reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from the oil sands, compared to 20 per cent who support intensity-based targets. So much for the caricature of the ugly Albertan too often seen as the non-caring capitalists, especially in relation to Canada’s environment.

In fact my firm did some in depth values based research for the forestry industry in the fall of 2005 with over 3000 participants in Alberta. We found then that 84% of Albertan’s believed that environmental protection had to trump economic growth. More information on our work for the Alberta forest industry is at http://www.yourforest.org/, if you are interested.

Alberta’s Minister of the Environment, Rob Renner, says intensity standards for GHG emissions are only interim measures and legislated absolute emission targets are the goal. I wonder if the Federal Minister of the environment, John Baird is on the same page and I surly hope so.

As for nuclear energy as a heat source in Alberta, some rumblings of using geothermal are also out and about. I would think that solution presents more benefit economically, environmentally and even in terms of reliability and safety that nuclear.

I don’t know who is behind the nuclear option scenario and have no problem that it be investigated. The Albert PC party wants the Alberta government to look at nuclear as an option. I hope the Alberta government looks at geothermal as an option to natural gas and nuclear at the same time and with equal or greater enthusiasm.

Harper and His Keystone Kons: Guaranteed Make You Laugh, Cry or Scream

Ok I can’t resist, given the performance of John Baird, posing as the bright light of the Keystone Conservatives yesterday. First he faxes his speech to the Opposition, then he does a photo op with a bunch of light bulbs and tries to diverts the attention from the insufficiently and uncertainty of his emissions policy. He still tries to compete today with O’Connor for attention, not to mention the ability to make it up on the fly.

The invitation to make changing light bulb jokes about the Keystone Kons performance is too much to resist. So here is one. How many of Harper’s Keystone Kons does it take to change a light bulb? None! They would rather stay in the dark.

I see the Keystone Kons believe outlawing the “old” bulb is apparently the equivalent of a save the world policy pronouncement. Since it will not come into effect until 2012 it breeds a potential and begs for a whole new genre of light bulb jokes. The Bairdisms is what they will be called. They will be based, not on how many it takes to change a light bulb, but how long will it take Baird to change one??? Apparently 5 years given his aggressive implementation plans. Yes sir that is a dramatic and decisive U-turn on enlightened environmental policy if ever there was one.

I can just hear the Jack Layton NDP minority government in 2012 chastising the Kons saying they had 5 years to change the lights (before they went out) and they “didn’t get it done.”

On a more serious note, I expect there is a feud that is now brewing between Stelmach of Alberta and Harper, of no fixed address, over who is going to determine environmental policy on climate change. It is a shared jurisdiction but my bets are on Ed not Steve. Alberta is light years ahead of the Feds on climate change, politically and policy-wise. I fully expect Alberta to take more effective and decisive initiatives, even with the interim intensity targets, as they occupy and dominate the climate change agenda and the emission regulation area.

Harper is sitting on a powder keg and giving of sparks in Alberta these days. He is just lucky we are such creatures of political habit out here. Expect Albertans of progressive beliefs and true conservative values to stay home and maybe even start voting Green in protest in the next election.

Hancock Meets Clement; Renner Meets Baird and Boutilier Briefs Stelmach

Interesting developments in the offing on the fed-prov front with a raft of new meetings. The Alberta and Federal Ministers of Environment (Renner and Baird) and Health (Hancock and Clement) Ministers are about to meet. These meetings include provincial Ministers who are not the rookies in Cabinet but the issues are serious and they represent the top two priority issues facing the country. No indication yet as to the agendas will be but given the times and the pressures, they will likely be significant…especially with all the elections coming in the near future.

Interesting that Prime Minister Harper is giving a major speech tomorrow to the Canadian Club in Ottawa. This is just before the Council of the Federation First Minister's conference call on Wednesday. Harper's presentation is being billed as "equivalent to a Throne Speech." You can't tell me that is coincidence. Curious as to what he has to say, especially to the Premiers in this speech. My guess is they are his primary intended audience.

The Council of the Federation meeting scheduled for Feb 7 has been reduced to a conference call due to scheduling problems. Too bad because it would have been interesting to see how new Premier Stelmach would make out on his debut First Ministers meetings. I would be anxious, at many levels, to see how Premier Stelmach would be served by his newly minted Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs Guy (Alberta as the Bad Boy of Confederation) Boutilier. Stelmach has done this Intergovernmental job, and by all accounts was pretty good at it so his expectations of his new Minister will be very high.

Speaking of Minister Boutilier, we see he is about to be seized with a challenge on the aboriginal aspect of his portfolio. The foster child care for aboriginal children have seen Grand Chief Phil Fontaine make demands for better responses to the needs of aboriginal children at risk. Given that the issue is receiving front page coverage, it would not be a surprise if this was a “walk on” agenda item at the First Ministers meeting on Wednesday.

The usual fed-prov posturing can be expected but it will sure be disappointing if all we see is finger pointing. The turmoil caused by a tragic death of a 3 year old boy in Alberta’s foster care guarantee serious media scrutiny on the foster care concerns for aboriginal children. How will Alberta, namely Minister Boutilier, respond? Will Alberta actually engage and work with their Conservative brethren on this issue? The good news is Jim Prentice, the most competent of all the federal Ministers, is on the Canada side of the issue.

Let’s hope we don’t see a classic case of over promising and under delivering that seems dog the Boutilier political approach. For example, looking at his past musing on the twinning of highway 63 to Fort McMurray one has to wonder if his motivation is always just purely political and power plays.

Media reports recently say he was assuring the Fort McMurray folks the road twinning could be done in 3 years. But that was when he was a Cabinet Minister supporting Lyle Oberg, the then Infrastructure Minister, and PC Party leadership bid. Oberg is the same Minister who was turfed from caucus by his colleagues for accusing them of having political skeletons (which he failed to prove) and for using (abusing?) his portfolio to advance his leadership aspirations last spring. Well the reality sets in now that the need for hype has passed and the twinning looks like it is now stretching out to seven years and counting.

Harsh reality and patience are the defining characteristics of the good folks of Wood Buffalo and the city of Fort McMurray in particular. How much long do the citizens of Fort McMurray have to suffer? And at so may levels and in so many ways and in the face of so much growth pressure?

Harper's New Green Con-version – Is it Environment Policy or Political Envy Driving the Conservative Eco-Agenda?

I am starting to wonder about the Harper Cons quick conversion to green. Is it the result of a real concern for the environment and a thoughtful purposeful reconsideration of an important public policy position? Or is it a just quick fix political response founded in fear and desperation and a large dose of green envy over Stephane Dion’s grasp of the issues.

Today Canada's Environment Minister, the Hon. John Baird spoke out and, according to media reports, appeared to do the usual Ottawa unilateralism with his disparaging and defensive comments on oil sands tax incentives in the news today. He says: "I cannot explain why the Liberal government of Mr. Dion made these changes," Baird said, speaking in French.

This is just altogether too cute because he is also trashing the Alberta government with these comments and he knows it - or at least he ought to know it. Doing it in French is the really cute part. Did he think Albertans would not hear about this if he only commented in French?

The tax incentive deals Baird is trashing was part a broader deal including more than just federal taxes. It was done in the mid 1990’s in collaboration with industry, Alberta’s PC government and the federal Liberals and covered royalties along with provincial and federal taxes.

This deal was done by the Chrétien government, and negotiated by Anne McLellan as Canada’s Minister of Natural Resources and Premier Ralph Klein and Syncrude’s Eric Newell. This is clearly not the “Dion government deal” as Baird tries to characterize it in the media today.

Premier Stelmach is widely known to be embarking on a royalty review of Alberta’s oil sands resources. But nowhere does Baird acknowledge this and suggest there nees to be come coordination and communications on this. He is trying to blame Dion for something that Dion was not any part of. Baird is ignoring, or worse, he is oblivious, to the impact of his actions and statements on Alberta’s energy sector and the Government of Alberta.

It would be nice if there was some evidence of a cooperative spirit between Progressive Conservative Alberta and Conservative Ottawa on this issue. But as Ralph Klein said last year “It doesn’t seem to matter who is in control in Ottawa, it is still Ottawa.” That reality was sure evident today.

Obviously it is timely to revisit the royalty and tax regime but industry needs certainty. An open honet porcess with a collaborative spirit from the two orders of government and input from the oil sands operaters is needed if this is going to work.

The Cons can obviously do what ever they want with the federal corporate taxes payable from oil sands extractors. But this tax review is not going to be at Dion’s expense. It is looking more like yet another Harper broken campaign promise akin to income trusts. Here is what Pierre Alvarez, the head of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers is reported to have said today about the Harper Cons oil sands tax review: “… (he) was puzzled by Baird's comments about the tax regime, noting Prime Minister Stephen Harper had insisted in December there would be no changes.” Ouch!

In the days the tax regime was set up we had with oil prices in the “teens” and oil sands production costs around $20 per barrel. The deal was predicated on industry doing some serious risk investing in oil sands development, committing $5B over the next 25 years in exchange for the royalty and tax deal.

Well we know what happened. In the 10 years following since the deal was done and how successful it was. In fact industry invested about $27B in the first 5 years of the deal and we have about $100B of oil sands related projects in the hopper that is running much of Canada’s economy today.

Pitbull Baird was keen to try on the rhetoric to trash Dion but he missed his target today. Instead he ended up chewing up his leader’s credibility - and mostly in Alberta - and particularly in Harper’s home town of Calgary. Not a bad day’s work if you are looking for a career change after the next election.

Yes Minister Baird was cute and clever today, but he was definitely not wise…and at so many levels.

UPDATE January 19, 2007
Interesting to see the Edmonton Journal Editorial Board and Paul Stanway of the Edmonton Sun being on the same page about this today.

John Baird Better Get Busy

John Baird better get busy on the environmental file if the Harper Cons are going to be accepted as authentically engaged. The Decima poll reported on in the Toronto Star today shows the Dion Liberals approach is making sense to most Canadians who see the Dion "carrot and stick" approach. Tax incentives and breaks for good environmental behaviours and changes balanced by penalties for bad behaviours.

Canadians get the Dion message that the economy and the environment are intertwined in a complex relationship and they are not mutually exclusive or in a zero-sum game where what is good for one is therefore bad for the other.

If the Cons are to become credible on the environment they are going to have to change a lot of their political culture and quickly. Preston Manning has been strongly advocating this for change in Conservative eco-consciousness for a couple of years now. It has been falling on deaf ears as the Harper Cons have been more interested in running down the old Liberal party than running as a viable and preferred governing alternative.

The intensity of the public’s commitment to the environment as the top policy issue is more dramatic than the fact it is all of a sudden #1. The line is forming very quickly for the hearts and minds of Canadians on this issue and the early trends are not promising for the Harper Cons according to this report.

One poll doesn’t decide anything. But most Canadians have decided the environment is the big issue for them now. They are engaged and watching the political parties on this issue and they will reward or punish politicians at the polls as they see fit. The implications are clear for all politicians be they federal, provincial or municipal they need to be on top of the issues and govern accordingly.

Over to you Mr. Baird...Canada is watching

Ambrose Survives Cabinet Shuffle Smelling Like a Rose

For those who think Rona Ambrose was benched or even marginalized in the recent Harper Cabinet shuffle, should think again. Sure she is no longer on the short leash she suffered as Environment Minister. That issue is becoming the “hot button” political and policy area leading up to the next election and the jury is out on John Baird . I am still optimistic he will get enough latitude to change things in the Harper government culture.

Intergovernmental Affairs is a brain trust portfolio with lot of interesting issues and complexity. This is a perfect place for someone like Ambrose who loves a challenge with interesting issues and moving targets and drama. I have noted in earlier postings I expect Ambrose to flourish in this arena.

The equally, if not more interesting development coming out of the Cabinet shuffle for Ambrose are the side bars to her appointment. As head of Western Economic Diversification I expect she will become very activitist as the face of the Harper government in the WED primary areas community development, innovation and entrepreneurship throughout the west. This should help assure her re-election and allow her to do some good too.

The other very interesting sidebar is her influence as President of the Queen’s Privy Council and her committee assignments. She sits on three of the seven key Cabinet committees and two of them are chaired by Jim Prentice the de facto Deputy Prime Minister. Prentice, by the way, sits or chairs a full five committees and takes care of a full portfolio as well as being the political Minister for Alberta. Jim Prentice has to be the hardest working guy on the Hill.

Ambrose sits on Prentice’s Operations Committee that does the day-to-day coordination of the government agenda, issues management, legislation, house planning and communications. All of it is critical stuff for the continuing success of the Harper government going into the next election.

The next Ambrose committee is Social Affairs that deals with issues around health care, justice, aboriginal, training and skills development, culture and immigration policy issues. Again we see a plethora of critical issues and concern to Canadians.

Finally she sits on the new Environment and Energy Security Committee that is chaired again by Prentice. Here is the place where the environment and the economy will be balanced with concerns over energy security ad related policy issues.

Anyone who thinks Ambrose is out of the loop in this Cabinet shuffle is not looking at the devil in the details and the fine print behind the press releases. To focus on the typical personality driven news noise coverage of who is in, who is out, who is a comer and who is falling from grace is to miss a great deal of the import and impact of the shuffle. By any objective measure Ambrose has done very well through it all.

Harper Shuffles Big Time Hoping to Buy Some Time

The personality issues are interesting gossip but the subtleties are where you will find the real substance of these Cabinet changes. Stephen Harper sharpens his focus, fixes some problems and I believe he enhances his Cabinet’s capacity too.

My guess is he is trying to delay the inevitable election from this spring to the fall with this shift in focus and this significant shuffle. He needs to buy some time to show he can govern affirmatively and not just be an alternative to the old Liberal regime.

The recent Liberal leadership change to Dion has seen public move beyond the angst and anger at the old Liberals. Change is in the air but who represent change is undecided given recent poll results with the Libs and Cons in a dead heat.

This desire to delay a federal election gives Charest elbow room to go to the polls in Quebec first with the support of a favourable Harper Budget. The polls are not positive for any party right now and too close to call. Harper wants some time to bring up the Cons numbers to where he can feel comfortable going into an election. There is not a clear consensus from the polls that the public wants an earlier election either and the opposition parties are all far from ready.

The shuffle give a sharper governance focus with Rona Ambrose in Intergovernmental Affairs and responsibility for the Western Economic Diversification. The MSM will harp on where she came “from” but the real story is where she is “going.”

This is a very smart strategic move by the Prime Minister as it speaks to the Ambrose strengths and takes advantage of her political credibility, especially in Alberta. Lots of fed-prov complexity looming and a need for real relationship building here. Ambrose will be good at it and will thrive in this new role.

Baird in Environment will get in trouble quickly if he keeps his pit bull approach to politics especially with the sophisticated ENGOs and the industry sectors. If he makes some significant serious changes quickly that are more closely aligned with the values and concerns of Canadians he will be one of the most effective Harper Ministers. If the Clean Air Act culture of hype and hyperbole ("smog and mirrors")persists with no serious political engagement, then Baird will be the new Ambrose. Expect his courage, capability, influence and adaptability to be tested very quickly.

Nicholson in Justice and Toews out will not be reassuring to the religious right and the future of their social conservative policy agenda. It signals that Harper does not want a focus on social conservative issues so expect Nicholson to put a lid on it until after the next election. Toews in Treasury Board tells me the new Budget and planning for 2007 is virtually a done deal by Baird already. Toews will likely be a caretaker on a short leash from the Prime Minister who is going to be the only real power in Treasury Board going forward.

The sleeper issue is the new focus on Seniors with another Senator appointed to Cabinet. With Marjory LeBreton’s appointment we can expect some serious new attention to this neglected sector of Harper's former Alliance/Reform base. The fear is that these folks are significantly disenchanted with the Harper government and could stayh home next election. This mean we can expect some tax reforms and program goodies in the pending Budget to overcome the perception of political neglect and the impact of the Income Trust decision on these fixed income seniors.

Keeping Prentice in place is the smartest “move” overall in this shuffle. I was right about Prentice in an earlier post but wrong on Rajotte being called to “the show.” Glad about the former, sad about the latter.

The rest is more like deck chair changes of no real consequence but it is good to see more women in and the smart politics of more Quebec involvement too. Not all of the problems have been fixed, like Defence and Heritage where there are some very hot buttons pending on procurement processes. The mean spirited recent Heritage social program cuts will come home to roost with political consequences too.

The overarching open question still is has the PM learn to share authority and responsibility or is he still going be the THE government and the de facto Minister of Everything!