I am starting to wonder about the Harper Cons quick conversion to green. Is it the result of a real concern for the environment and a thoughtful purposeful reconsideration of an important public policy position? Or is it a just quick fix political response founded in fear and desperation and a large dose of green envy over Stephane Dion’s grasp of the issues.
Today Canada's Environment Minister, the Hon. John Baird spoke out and, according to media reports, appeared to do the usual Ottawa unilateralism with his disparaging and defensive comments on oil sands tax incentives in the news today. He says: "I cannot explain why the Liberal government of Mr. Dion made these changes," Baird said, speaking in French.
This is just altogether too cute because he is also trashing the Alberta government with these comments and he knows it - or at least he ought to know it. Doing it in French is the really cute part. Did he think Albertans would not hear about this if he only commented in French?
The tax incentive deals Baird is trashing was part a broader deal including more than just federal taxes. It was done in the mid 1990’s in collaboration with industry, Alberta’s PC government and the federal Liberals and covered royalties along with provincial and federal taxes.
This deal was done by the Chrétien government, and negotiated by Anne McLellan as Canada’s Minister of Natural Resources and Premier Ralph Klein and Syncrude’s Eric Newell. This is clearly not the “Dion government deal” as Baird tries to characterize it in the media today.
Premier Stelmach is widely known to be embarking on a royalty review of Alberta’s oil sands resources. But nowhere does Baird acknowledge this and suggest there nees to be come coordination and communications on this. He is trying to blame Dion for something that Dion was not any part of. Baird is ignoring, or worse, he is oblivious, to the impact of his actions and statements on Alberta’s energy sector and the Government of Alberta.
It would be nice if there was some evidence of a cooperative spirit between Progressive Conservative Alberta and Conservative Ottawa on this issue. But as Ralph Klein said last year “It doesn’t seem to matter who is in control in Ottawa, it is still Ottawa.” That reality was sure evident today.
Obviously it is timely to revisit the royalty and tax regime but industry needs certainty. An open honet porcess with a collaborative spirit from the two orders of government and input from the oil sands operaters is needed if this is going to work.
The Cons can obviously do what ever they want with the federal corporate taxes payable from oil sands extractors. But this tax review is not going to be at Dion’s expense. It is looking more like yet another Harper broken campaign promise akin to income trusts. Here is what Pierre Alvarez, the head of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers is reported to have said today about the Harper Cons oil sands tax review: “… (he) was puzzled by Baird's comments about the tax regime, noting Prime Minister Stephen Harper had insisted in December there would be no changes.” Ouch!
In the days the tax regime was set up we had with oil prices in the “teens” and oil sands production costs around $20 per barrel. The deal was predicated on industry doing some serious risk investing in oil sands development, committing $5B over the next 25 years in exchange for the royalty and tax deal.
Well we know what happened. In the 10 years following since the deal was done and how successful it was. In fact industry invested about $27B in the first 5 years of the deal and we have about $100B of oil sands related projects in the hopper that is running much of Canada’s economy today.
Pitbull Baird was keen to try on the rhetoric to trash Dion but he missed his target today. Instead he ended up chewing up his leader’s credibility - and mostly in Alberta - and particularly in Harper’s home town of Calgary. Not a bad day’s work if you are looking for a career change after the next election.
Yes Minister Baird was cute and clever today, but he was definitely not wise…and at so many levels.
UPDATE January 19, 2007
Interesting to see the Edmonton Journal Editorial Board and Paul Stanway of the Edmonton Sun being on the same page about this today.
Thursday, January 18, 2007
The Grand Content
As we parse and prod our way along the paths of politics and pathos, we often get caught in the trap. The "seriousness of it all" trap from which only humour can release us. Props to Les Brost for one again opening the trap.
Here is the link to show PowerPoint at its best.
Here is the link to show PowerPoint at its best.
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
What is Stephen Harper Thinking?
Nicole Martel is asking why Stephen Harper is doing so much to alienate his base in western Canada. First the income trust betrayal and now he is looking at non-renewable energy revenues as part of the calculation for equalization payment calculations, as a pander to Quebec. Saskatchewan and Alberta are upset as is Newfoundland and Danny Williams is speaking in Fort McMurray on January 27th. I am sure he will have some choice words for Prime Minister Harper on equalization formulas.
Top that off with rumours of a $1.4 Billion payment to Quebec to restore the Harper Cons position there. It won’t hurt Jean Charest either, which is a good thing with his pending election.
Wasn’t it just this kind of pandering to Quebec politics that started the Reform Party in the first place? Wasn’t Stephen Harper around then?
Then the recent Globe and Mail poll done by The Strategic Counsel is being parsed in the media for its meaning with a plethora of preconceived notions. The fact that Dion is in a horse race with Harper so shortly after a leadership change and so close to Adscam is amazing. Harper has dropped from 49% to 41% support in the west in the year since the last election. He is down 10% in Quebec from 25% to 15%. In Ontario Harper is at 32% trailing Dion at 45%.
The next election is being touted as far off because the tight race between the major parties. Lets face it the next election will be called when Jack Layton decides he is ready because he has the votes to sustain or bury Harper. So we have to watch just how much and how fast the Greens are closing in on him too.
In Ontario the Greens are up to 9% and the NDP are down to 15% since the last election. Enough said! Jack Layton can hear the Birkenstock footsteps right behind him and they are getting louder. That trend will determine the next election based as much on Jack Layton’s fear factor over Elizabeth May’s Green Party emergence.
Old line Reform/Alliance types must be shaking their heads and asking themselves “Stephen – what are you doing?”
Top that off with rumours of a $1.4 Billion payment to Quebec to restore the Harper Cons position there. It won’t hurt Jean Charest either, which is a good thing with his pending election.
Wasn’t it just this kind of pandering to Quebec politics that started the Reform Party in the first place? Wasn’t Stephen Harper around then?
Then the recent Globe and Mail poll done by The Strategic Counsel is being parsed in the media for its meaning with a plethora of preconceived notions. The fact that Dion is in a horse race with Harper so shortly after a leadership change and so close to Adscam is amazing. Harper has dropped from 49% to 41% support in the west in the year since the last election. He is down 10% in Quebec from 25% to 15%. In Ontario Harper is at 32% trailing Dion at 45%.
The next election is being touted as far off because the tight race between the major parties. Lets face it the next election will be called when Jack Layton decides he is ready because he has the votes to sustain or bury Harper. So we have to watch just how much and how fast the Greens are closing in on him too.
In Ontario the Greens are up to 9% and the NDP are down to 15% since the last election. Enough said! Jack Layton can hear the Birkenstock footsteps right behind him and they are getting louder. That trend will determine the next election based as much on Jack Layton’s fear factor over Elizabeth May’s Green Party emergence.
Old line Reform/Alliance types must be shaking their heads and asking themselves “Stephen – what are you doing?”
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
Hancock is on the Right Track
UPDATE January 18, 2006:
I see the old guard die hard - and the idea of a smoking ban is one of the die hard issues for them. Ty Lund, a Klein Conservative if ever there was one, and I think one of the most under-rated government Ministers of his day, is ticked at Hancock on the smoking ban proposal.
This reaction is going to be framed as a rural urban wedge issue by some political players. It is not that - it is a public health issue that impacts all of us, even if only in our pocketbook as taxpayers. This issue will be a major test of the Stelmach government and governance style to see if it is different and progressive and responsive.
UPDATE January 17, 2006:
I see the Edmonton Journal Editorial Board is applauding this effort by Hancock as a preventative health care initiative.
Who in their right mind would want to be the Minister in charge of heath care anywhere in Canada today? Regular reader of this Blog will know I am a big Dave Hancock fan and worked on his campaign. So for me to support him on this idea politically will not be surprise. I also support the idea as a public policy position - beyond the politics involved.
Hancock’s first foray out of the blocks is to propose and promote the much overdue ban on smoking in public places all over Alberta as provincial policy – not as a local issue. We know second hand smoke kills so it is not just an individual choice issue anymore. It is a limitation on individuals that is needed for the greater public good.
If the Stelmach Caucus supports this initiative it will go along way to breathing life into the prevention and wellness side of heath care in Alberta. That is were the big gains are to be made and that is as much an individual choice and responsibility as it is a public policy concern. This is not social engineering any more than a stop sign at a roadway intersection is interference in how we drive. It is all about the greater common good.
Hancock is big on the prevention and wellness side of the health equation and he is spending some serious political capital to prove it. This issue never got past the former Premier because he did not want to alienate a certain segment of Albertans. That attitude costs lives that could be prevented and tax dollars that could be put to better use.
I think the overarching policy issue is still you are free to do whatever you want so long as it does not hurt me…my health, my family, my community, my environment or my pocket book. Smoking is proven to harmful all of those aspects and so it is not appropriate in public places any more.
Stay the course Dave and don't blink
I see the old guard die hard - and the idea of a smoking ban is one of the die hard issues for them. Ty Lund, a Klein Conservative if ever there was one, and I think one of the most under-rated government Ministers of his day, is ticked at Hancock on the smoking ban proposal.
This reaction is going to be framed as a rural urban wedge issue by some political players. It is not that - it is a public health issue that impacts all of us, even if only in our pocketbook as taxpayers. This issue will be a major test of the Stelmach government and governance style to see if it is different and progressive and responsive.
UPDATE January 17, 2006:
I see the Edmonton Journal Editorial Board is applauding this effort by Hancock as a preventative health care initiative.
Who in their right mind would want to be the Minister in charge of heath care anywhere in Canada today? Regular reader of this Blog will know I am a big Dave Hancock fan and worked on his campaign. So for me to support him on this idea politically will not be surprise. I also support the idea as a public policy position - beyond the politics involved.
Hancock’s first foray out of the blocks is to propose and promote the much overdue ban on smoking in public places all over Alberta as provincial policy – not as a local issue. We know second hand smoke kills so it is not just an individual choice issue anymore. It is a limitation on individuals that is needed for the greater public good.
If the Stelmach Caucus supports this initiative it will go along way to breathing life into the prevention and wellness side of heath care in Alberta. That is were the big gains are to be made and that is as much an individual choice and responsibility as it is a public policy concern. This is not social engineering any more than a stop sign at a roadway intersection is interference in how we drive. It is all about the greater common good.
Hancock is big on the prevention and wellness side of the health equation and he is spending some serious political capital to prove it. This issue never got past the former Premier because he did not want to alienate a certain segment of Albertans. That attitude costs lives that could be prevented and tax dollars that could be put to better use.
I think the overarching policy issue is still you are free to do whatever you want so long as it does not hurt me…my health, my family, my community, my environment or my pocket book. Smoking is proven to harmful all of those aspects and so it is not appropriate in public places any more.
Stay the course Dave and don't blink
Sunday, January 14, 2007
John Baird Better Get Busy
John Baird better get busy on the environmental file if the Harper Cons are going to be accepted as authentically engaged. The Decima poll reported on in the Toronto Star today shows the Dion Liberals approach is making sense to most Canadians who see the Dion "carrot and stick" approach. Tax incentives and breaks for good environmental behaviours and changes balanced by penalties for bad behaviours.
Canadians get the Dion message that the economy and the environment are intertwined in a complex relationship and they are not mutually exclusive or in a zero-sum game where what is good for one is therefore bad for the other.
If the Cons are to become credible on the environment they are going to have to change a lot of their political culture and quickly. Preston Manning has been strongly advocating this for change in Conservative eco-consciousness for a couple of years now. It has been falling on deaf ears as the Harper Cons have been more interested in running down the old Liberal party than running as a viable and preferred governing alternative.
The intensity of the public’s commitment to the environment as the top policy issue is more dramatic than the fact it is all of a sudden #1. The line is forming very quickly for the hearts and minds of Canadians on this issue and the early trends are not promising for the Harper Cons according to this report.
One poll doesn’t decide anything. But most Canadians have decided the environment is the big issue for them now. They are engaged and watching the political parties on this issue and they will reward or punish politicians at the polls as they see fit. The implications are clear for all politicians be they federal, provincial or municipal they need to be on top of the issues and govern accordingly.
Over to you Mr. Baird...Canada is watching
Canadians get the Dion message that the economy and the environment are intertwined in a complex relationship and they are not mutually exclusive or in a zero-sum game where what is good for one is therefore bad for the other.
If the Cons are to become credible on the environment they are going to have to change a lot of their political culture and quickly. Preston Manning has been strongly advocating this for change in Conservative eco-consciousness for a couple of years now. It has been falling on deaf ears as the Harper Cons have been more interested in running down the old Liberal party than running as a viable and preferred governing alternative.
The intensity of the public’s commitment to the environment as the top policy issue is more dramatic than the fact it is all of a sudden #1. The line is forming very quickly for the hearts and minds of Canadians on this issue and the early trends are not promising for the Harper Cons according to this report.
One poll doesn’t decide anything. But most Canadians have decided the environment is the big issue for them now. They are engaged and watching the political parties on this issue and they will reward or punish politicians at the polls as they see fit. The implications are clear for all politicians be they federal, provincial or municipal they need to be on top of the issues and govern accordingly.
Over to you Mr. Baird...Canada is watching
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