Economists See Subprime Fiaso and Excessive Debt as a More Serious Problem Than Terrorism

The Globe and Mail Report on Business story today over further fall out of the subprime mortage fiasco in the USA is very interesting . It is about the change in perception amongst American economists. A significant change has happened about what the short term risks are to the US economy.

Notwithstanding the old joke that says if you put all the economists in the world end-to-end they would still point in every direction - there is some consensus emerging. There were 258 members of the influential National Association of Business Economics who responded to the survey so the results have significance.

Those professionals who keep an eye on events that impact the economy have the following concerns about what can happen to mess up it up.

Defence concern over a terrorist attack and the Middle East is the top issue for 20% - down from 35% only six months ago. That is significant but also that fact that 18% tagged the fallout from the subprime mortgage fiasco and another 14% cited excessive personal and corporate debt as the top issues that can hamper the economy.

Interesting that the impact of the American government debt (3%) and negative trade (8%) balance were so low and declining form earlier surveys. See my post of August 24 on the impact of China on these isues. Even energy prices were the top concern for only 13% - down from 30% in a year.

The long term US economic anxiety is still health care costs (24%) and aging population (21%). The American education system will have a long term negative impact for 17%. The Federal deficit is the top long term concern for 13% and energy issues were cited by 9% of the participating economists.

Link Byfield Says the Growing Undecided Voters in Alberta is Good for the Wildrose Party

Link Byfield has sent out another call for signatures to help the new Wildrose Party to get political party status. He sees the Cameron Strategies poll last week showing some 37% of Albertans undecided in how they will vote next election as fertile ground for a new, energized far-right political movement. Here is what Link had to say in an e-mail on Friday:

“An astonishing poll this week from Cameron Strategy in Calgary shows that undecided voters are now the largest group in Alberta (37%). The Stelmach Conservatives have dropped to 32%. That's down from 54% in January. Liberals, NDP, Greens and Alliance are all stalled. Highest place are the Liberals, unchanged at 16%. The Alberta Alliance remains at 5%, down from 9% in 2004 election.”

It is actually 30% undecided and 6% who will not vote at all in the polling figures I have seen,but that is a quibble. I wonder if Link remembered this pollster was also an able and key advisor to the Dr. Oberg PC leadership campaign. Speaking of Dr. Oberg, when is he going to release his donor list from the PC leadership campaign – what has it been 9 months? He is the last to do it. Remember Dr. Morton said he never would tell Albertans who bankrolled him.

As for the poll, it does not look good for those of us who believe in the leadership of Ed Stelmach. I have only seen the news release on the poll. I have not seen the questions or the data distribution so it is hard to really comment except in the most general of terms. We all know wording of questions can have an impact on outcomes.

It would be interesting to know how many phone calls in total were made in this poll before they got the 600 participants. Some indications are that as many as 15-20 calls have to be made these days before someone is prepared to take the time to answer pollster. The end result is the group participating is not as random as one might think because people self-select to participate and we can never tell what their motivations are.

We also know how the participants split geographically, a third in each of Edmonton, Calgary and other. We don't know gender, age, education, income breakdowns and if that mix correlates with the representative population characteristics of Alberta. I always like to know that before I rely on the data. Cameron Strategies is very reputable and experienced so I am sure they will soon release all the data and the wording of the questions too.

Regardless of these technicalities, judging by these results, it sure looks like Albertans are disenchanted with politics these days. Stelmach is taking the brunt of this but there is little solace for the Taft Liberals or Mason's NDP, who Link notes are both “stalled.” The Alliance is in free fall too. That and "37%" undecided – maybe the Wildrose Party has some potential to be a force in the next election.

In the mean time the Wildrose Party need signatures to qualify as a political party for the next Alberta election and that is obviously Job 1 for them right now.

Clint Dunford Decides to Pack it In

Thanks to Daveberta for bring to my attention the Clint Dunford (PC Lethbridge West) decision not to run again in the coming election. After serving four terms and having some health issues, Clint’s decision is no surprise.

Clint was one of the best Ministers in Klein's various government serving as Minster of Human Resources, Minister of Advanced Education, and Minister of Economic Development.

Clint is an intelligent and capable man who practiced politics honourably and ably. His wisdom and generous human spirit will be missed by those of us who value good government and caring governors.

Red Deer's Victor Doerksen Packs it In!

Victor Doerksen PC Red Deer South is not running again and announced it formally yesterday. This will not doubt be one of many MLAs who re-evaluate and reconsider their political status with the pending election. The political parties are already in the red zone of gearing up for election readiness even though it is likely months away, the reasonable speculation saying it is going to happen in the spring of 2008.

Stelmach has done is one-on-ones and has undoubtedly made his view known to some of the caucus and visa versa. This may be the first politician ot declare his intentions to not run but he will not be the last.

Elections for politicians are like the final game of the Stanley Cup Playoffs and a tough job interview all rolled into one. They are always a cause for one to pause and think about the future. Winning or losing is only part of the consideration. Is politics still worth it is a big question.

The wary and weary factors also come into play, and leadership changes always add to the intensity of the question…one more time...or maybe not so much! Victor was from the social conservative side of the Progressive Conservative ledger. Stelmach is more of a social progressive and fiscal conservative. Victor did not show well in the PC leadership last year. He gets it and knows it is time to move on.

The environment and managing growth being the 800 pound gorilla in the election campaigns this time. Both of these elements will have to be obvious and presented with a sense of stewardship for a candidate or political party to be successful, or even acceptable, to the Alberta electorate this time out.

Stay tuned. More change is in the wind.

China is Holding Bush by the Short and Curlies

The Globe and Mail reports today that Chinese state-owned banks “admit they’re on the hook for $11B” of the subprime debt paper. This crap debt is causing a credit crunch all over the world and I am sure the Chinese are not amused. The impact of the Chinese banking is not huge but if they pull out of the U.S. debt market, that will be a disaster for the American economy...and it will not stop there.

The impact of the American subprime mortgage market meltdown is getting wider and deeper and more global every day. This is not going away and the stock market volatility of the past week or so has been dampened by some pretty hefty cash interventions by national central banks everywhere trying to maintain liquidity. But this mess is far from over. In fact we have only just begun.

A scan of headlines in the financial pages tells us the worst is yet to come. One can all most see this as a fiscal tsunami rising on the horizon and heading towards us. Right now it is far enough in the distance we can’t really tell how big it is or how fast it is moving - but we can see it coming.

Here is a taste of what is gong on form the MSM newspapers:
“U.S. home foreclosures soar in July…fallout from subprime crisis seen as a major factor behind 93% jump in default.” Estimates are that the US will see over 2million residential foreclosures in 2007 and 43 States are all ready seeing a 2007 increase over 2006 figures.

“Finance jobs face the axe as housing woes deepen” U.S. financial services industry has 87,962 job cuts so far in 2007 while all of 2006 saw 50,327 financial sector job cuts. U.S. real estate and construction job cuts in the first 7 months of 2007 are 21,620, more than double the cuts in all of 2006.

On the investment side it is not any better and it has infected Canada too where estimates indicate we are holding over $33B of this non-liquid paper. The Financial Post reports that the Ontario government is in for $700 million, Air Canada is holding some $37million and, the Greater Toronto Airport Authority is exposed for about $250million. Even the venerable and huge Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan is in for $60million.

Reports in the U.S. stock market that “confidence is shaky” and some American financial experts are indicating a recession is on the way because the recent buoyant economy has been lead by consumer spending financed by loans against increasing home equity. With housing prices dropping and the increasing foreclosures the consumer psychology changes and they quite spending causing a recession. The virtuous cycle turns vicious.

Put that in the context of where Dubya has taken the American economy from $236B surplus in 2000 when he became President to a $248B deficit in 2006. 2007 estimates say the 2007 Bush deficit is going to be at least $210B. He has overspent as much as $400B in a single year since becoming President. Total U.S. federal debt is now over $5-trillion with $2.2 trillion if held by foreigners. The Chinese hold about 50% of the foreign owned debt.

Now consider the enormous U.S. trade deficit of $758B in 2006 and we see more American vulnerability. The first half of 2007 saw the Bush Presidency creating a trade deficit with China alone of $118B. Ouch! And the war with Iraq must be costing the Americans a pretty penny too…largely being financed by borrowings from China.

So we can see that China is holding Bush by his short and curlies. They can, at their will, dictate a large portion of future of the U.S. economy just by not lending any more and not rolling over the existing American debt they hold when it mature. It is just a matter of time before we see some enormous changes in the direction of the U.S. economy. It is going to have a global impact…and it is not going to be pretty.

For more insight and commentary on suggestions for a made-in-Alberta foreign policy - check out the Aug 20th Editorial on Policy Channel