More Good News On Alberta Tobacco Control

More good news on the tobacco control front in Alberta. Alberta Health and Wellness and Minister Dave Hancock have been hard at work over the summer writing regulations on the necessary phasing in of Bill 45 (prohibiting smoking in public and work places). Bill 45 is expected to pass Third Reading in the fall session of the Alberta Legislature this November. Starting in the New Year as this legislation gets implemented; things will change for the better and a healthier Alberta.

There are some terrific video interviews on Policy Channel (http://www.policychannel/) with Ken Kobly (Alberta Chambers of Commerce) and Gil McGowan (Alberta Federation of Labour) on the reasons why a workplace ban is a good idea. Full disclosure - I do work for a coalition of heath agencies and organizations in Alberta who are lobbying for tobacco control legislation and Policy Channel is an affilate site of my firm.

Stats Can has been releasing new data showing smoking bans work showing an impressive 27% of people who can’t smoke on the job end up quitting within 2 years of the bans coming into force.

Today Stat Can released another report on cigarette manufacturing. Again showing the trends are in the right direction but it excluded imported tobacco products but that can’t be a large enough portion of the Canadian market to affect the overall trend downward. Here is an excerpt from the report. More encourging news., productino is down and inventories are up...meaing we are making and selling fewer cigarettes.

Total cigarettes sold in July by Canadian manufacturers increased 13.7% from June to 1.7 billion cigarettes, down 22.6% compared with July 2006.

Cigarette production in July decreased 30.5% from June to 1.2 billion cigarettes, down 32.5% from July 2006.

At 1.6 billion cigarettes, the level of closing inventories for July was 23.4% higher than in June and 4.8% higher than in July 2006.

Note: This survey collects data on the production of tobacco products in Canada by Canadian manufacturers and the disposition or sales of this production. It does not collect data on imported tobacco products. Therefore, sales information in this release is not a proxy for domestic consumption of tobacco products.

More on Peter Lougheed and the Looming Constitutional Crisis

I had the Peter Lougheed remarks to the recent Canadian Bar Association meeting taped off the recent CPAC broadcast and viewed it on the week end. I was right about the former Premier of Alberta’s capacity to frame an issue. Watching him you can see that he is a master communicator - and dead serious about his concern about the looming constitutional conflict he foresees.

He make no bones about the depth of his concern over a looming constitutional crisis between federal environmental law responsibility and Alberta’s constitutional right in the Constitution Act, Section 92(A) (1) (b) about

“ development, conservation and management of non-renewable natural resources and forestry resources in the province, including laws in relation to the rate of primary production therefrom."

See my earlier postings of August 15, and 17 for comments on his presentation for background and context on Mr. Lougheed's remarks and their implications.

I will have more to say on it later. In the meantime, we are seeking permission from CPAC to run it on Policy Channel. (http://www.policychannel.com/)

Last Week of Public Consultation for Albertan's to Have Budget Input.

Albertans can have some input into the next Provincial Budget. The questionnaire itself is typically frustrating trying to simplify complex issues rather than clarify them. That does not mean it lacks value. It is a chance to have some views made clear to the "powers that be" about what you see as future fiscal priorities.

It is worth taking a few minutes to go over the background material first. That information is clear and concise. It will help you cope with the questions to follow.

Here is the link to the background and the survey is at the very end of this document. Take a few minutes and make your views known.

Economists See Subprime Fiaso and Excessive Debt as a More Serious Problem Than Terrorism

The Globe and Mail Report on Business story today over further fall out of the subprime mortage fiasco in the USA is very interesting . It is about the change in perception amongst American economists. A significant change has happened about what the short term risks are to the US economy.

Notwithstanding the old joke that says if you put all the economists in the world end-to-end they would still point in every direction - there is some consensus emerging. There were 258 members of the influential National Association of Business Economics who responded to the survey so the results have significance.

Those professionals who keep an eye on events that impact the economy have the following concerns about what can happen to mess up it up.

Defence concern over a terrorist attack and the Middle East is the top issue for 20% - down from 35% only six months ago. That is significant but also that fact that 18% tagged the fallout from the subprime mortgage fiasco and another 14% cited excessive personal and corporate debt as the top issues that can hamper the economy.

Interesting that the impact of the American government debt (3%) and negative trade (8%) balance were so low and declining form earlier surveys. See my post of August 24 on the impact of China on these isues. Even energy prices were the top concern for only 13% - down from 30% in a year.

The long term US economic anxiety is still health care costs (24%) and aging population (21%). The American education system will have a long term negative impact for 17%. The Federal deficit is the top long term concern for 13% and energy issues were cited by 9% of the participating economists.

Link Byfield Says the Growing Undecided Voters in Alberta is Good for the Wildrose Party

Link Byfield has sent out another call for signatures to help the new Wildrose Party to get political party status. He sees the Cameron Strategies poll last week showing some 37% of Albertans undecided in how they will vote next election as fertile ground for a new, energized far-right political movement. Here is what Link had to say in an e-mail on Friday:

“An astonishing poll this week from Cameron Strategy in Calgary shows that undecided voters are now the largest group in Alberta (37%). The Stelmach Conservatives have dropped to 32%. That's down from 54% in January. Liberals, NDP, Greens and Alliance are all stalled. Highest place are the Liberals, unchanged at 16%. The Alberta Alliance remains at 5%, down from 9% in 2004 election.”

It is actually 30% undecided and 6% who will not vote at all in the polling figures I have seen,but that is a quibble. I wonder if Link remembered this pollster was also an able and key advisor to the Dr. Oberg PC leadership campaign. Speaking of Dr. Oberg, when is he going to release his donor list from the PC leadership campaign – what has it been 9 months? He is the last to do it. Remember Dr. Morton said he never would tell Albertans who bankrolled him.

As for the poll, it does not look good for those of us who believe in the leadership of Ed Stelmach. I have only seen the news release on the poll. I have not seen the questions or the data distribution so it is hard to really comment except in the most general of terms. We all know wording of questions can have an impact on outcomes.

It would be interesting to know how many phone calls in total were made in this poll before they got the 600 participants. Some indications are that as many as 15-20 calls have to be made these days before someone is prepared to take the time to answer pollster. The end result is the group participating is not as random as one might think because people self-select to participate and we can never tell what their motivations are.

We also know how the participants split geographically, a third in each of Edmonton, Calgary and other. We don't know gender, age, education, income breakdowns and if that mix correlates with the representative population characteristics of Alberta. I always like to know that before I rely on the data. Cameron Strategies is very reputable and experienced so I am sure they will soon release all the data and the wording of the questions too.

Regardless of these technicalities, judging by these results, it sure looks like Albertans are disenchanted with politics these days. Stelmach is taking the brunt of this but there is little solace for the Taft Liberals or Mason's NDP, who Link notes are both “stalled.” The Alliance is in free fall too. That and "37%" undecided – maybe the Wildrose Party has some potential to be a force in the next election.

In the mean time the Wildrose Party need signatures to qualify as a political party for the next Alberta election and that is obviously Job 1 for them right now.