Quebec By-Elections Herald Change and Uncertainty

What Happened in Quebec Politics Yesterday?

I watched the by-elections last night and had to wonder what is going on in Quebec. For the most part I think it is healthy for democracy and could be good for Canada. The reality is these events were by-elections. Personality of candidates often means more in those events than party or policy or leadership. There is a reality of the timing of these by-elections too. The current minority government could be brought down any given day the House is sitting and now the NDP alone can save the Conservative’s bacon in a confidence vote. So the consequences of a local constituency “getting it wrong” are not too damaging. So why not send the powers that be a message?

Enough context (excuses???) Here are the messages I got from the result in Quebec last night. Dion and Duceppe are damaged and personally deflated by these results. Layton is the big leadership winner by making a breakthrough in Quebec for the first time and very decisively.

The personality issue played well for the NDP with Mulcair but he also had some fascinating political manoeuvrings at play in his victory too. He attracted a large segment of the Bloc voters (Ouch Mon. Duceppe – that has to hurt) and what were those Bloc voters saying? Were they ticked with the Bloc and wanted to “block” the Liberals. Don’t forget Mulcair was a Charest Liberal Cabinet Minister who resigned and turned Dipper. His election as a Dipper sends a message to the federal and provincial Liberals and bruises them both badly.

The Conservative win by Lebel in Roberval was stunning. Not only was the margin of victory impressive it was in separatist country. This Conservative win was by a guy who, a few short months ago, was also a Bloc party member and presumably a separatist himself. Did Mr. Harper’s Quebec Nation sentiments trump his stance on Afghanistan? One can’t help wonder if Lebel is eventually going to be to Harper what Bouchard was to Mulroney.

Duceppe had something to smile about winning St Hyacinthe “comfortably” and over a Conservative…who will no doubt be breathing down the Bloc’s neck come the next election.

Dion is the sacrificial lamb in all of this. Quebec is still smarting and clearly unforgiving over Adscam and about being “played” by the cynical Chrétien government. It was the Chrétien government who tried to buy Quebec’s loyalty with flags and banners scam perpetrated by a Quebec Liberal party arm that was infected with culture of fraud and favouritism.

Quebecers were insulted and still unforgiving of the Liberals and Dion has to wear it. Such is the reality of the Liberals in Quebec...and for a while yet obviously. And while all this is not technically not Dion’s doing or fault – as the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada he has to carry that baggage. It is proving to be a heavy load. That past party baggage is not a new phenomenon nor unique to Dion. Harper had to live through the disaster that was Stockwell Day when he took over the Conservative Party and on his way to 24 Sussex Drive. All this is as it should be.

The larger question is what doe this mean for Quebec politics and how does that impact Canada? Quebec is no longer a fight between Liberal federalists and Bloc Separatists. Quebec’s feelings and political aspirations are much more unclear, uncertain and consequential for Canada since yesterday. Is the Quebec-Canada Cold War over? If so what political relationship within Quebec and between Quebec and Canada fills the vacuum? Is the Rest of Canada ready to deal with the Harper declaration of the Quebec Nation as a reality? Is Mr Harper the new voice for Quebec aspirations or just a means to an end in Quebec – that end being power or at least access to it?

Will Harper “play” Quebec or will Quebec “play” Harper for power and which “player” wins in such a power-game? What happens to the Harper’s western political base in either event? Wasn’t this the kind of Quebec Problem that Mulroney dealt with in his efforts around Charlottetown and Meech Lake? Wasn’t all of that the stuff that lead to the formation of the Reform Party in the first place? Interesting time ahead – interesting times indeed.

In summary – here is how I saw last nights by-elections. Duceppe had some cold water poured on his Quebec sovereigntist torch last night. Dion’s Quebec torch was all but blown out last night by winds of change in those three by-elections. Both of these parties and their leaders were sent strong and angry messages by the Quebec people last night.

Layton has found a small candle in the Quebec winds of change and will have to tend it carefully if he is to keep it lit. One candle does not make a torch…but it can light one.

And as for Mr. Harper, well he was seen as the new and emerging de facto torch carrier for Quebec’s national aspirations. Last night Harper was handed the Quebec Nation’s torch and we shall see how high and well he carries it…or if it ends up burning him and his political carrier in the process.

Bon chance Prime Minister Harper as you move to bring Quebec into nationhood and lead the rest of Canada into a better understanding and an abiding acceptance those unique francophone aspirations. The eyes of an uncertain and a hesitant nation(s) are all upon you.

EUB and Royalty Review Reports Coming - A Defining Week for Stelmach

This is going to be an interesting week in politics in Quebec but in Alberta too. The Quebec by-elections on Monday are getting lots of attention but they are merely that; by-elections. Likely to be lots of noise by signifying not very much as to indicating the future.

Alberta on the other hand has lots going on – most of which will impact or interest the nation. The next EUB spygate report is due for release this coming week and Premier Stelmach will be responding quickly to the findings. This is pretty consequential stuff. The way the EUB has been handling protesters and participants at “public” hearings in at least 2 instances is more aligned with fascism than citizen sovereign democracies. This needs fixing and I will have a specific post on the EUB from the Privacy Commissioner Report on Monday.

The Royalty Review Report is to be ready Tuesday. Originally this was a Stelmach idea that was commissioned by Dr. Oberg and retrieved by Stelmach who has taken back the lead politically on the initiative. Stelmach has said that he would make the report public as soon as he got it. Good move Mr. Premier. We don’t need these kinds of consultation reports being studied by government before public release. We can all study it concurrently and we do not need the government to have a position first. We need this complex stuff to be handled differently...like more openly.

I know the media will look for the typical short sound-bite responses but that is not good enough any more either. This stuff needs to be analyzed and the outcomes need to be designed to achieve identified and agreed to goals. Citizens need to see such significant reports in the first place not at the end of an internal government review process. This is risky in the current superficial political and media culture we live in - but this is the place to start to change that culture.

The Royalty Review Report authors say they are presenting a package of integrated recommendations that should not be cherry picked but taken or rejected as a whole. Makes sense in terms complex issues like royalties. These are not linear incremental issues but highly integrated and interrelated concerns.

Dr. Oberg has said publicly that the government (meaning him???) reserves the right to pick and choose from the various recommendations. This approach will likely lead to a similar result like what happened in the recent Affordable Housing Task Force report. A package of integrated proposals was presented to government to resolve affordable housing. The politicians in charge accepted and rejected various parts of the whole systems approach and the results were confusion and confrontation.

If the government does not like the Royalty Review Report recommendations or they want to put revised limits or refinements on the issues – they should do so - in public - and then send the job back to the review committee to revisit and report again. Do not deconstruct a whole systems set of recommendations based on pure political ideology and think that will lead to an effective policy design outcome.

This will be an interesting week in politics in Quebec and Alberta – both of which will have an impact on the rest of Canada – but in different ways. Lot to talk about this coming week for sure.

Harper Con's Allegations Against Dion Prove To Be False.

Quick update on the Harper Cons attempt to change the channel on their election campaign Ad-Scheme . Jeff Jedras who blogs as a “A BCer in Toronto” has updated his explanation of the Con allegations that Dion "does it too."

Newspaper reports confirm his analysis of the Cons allegations about Dion’s election campaign. Again – for every citizen who cares about democracy and integrity in government - it is worth a read.


Dion's dealing are proven to be totally above board. The diversionary tactics that have become the trademark of the Harper Cons have proven false once again. These tactics are not honest mistakes. They are character flaws in a political party and the people who run it.

Mayrand of Elections Canada Stands His Ground - Canadians Owe Him Respect

Marc Mayrand, Canada’s Chief Electoral Officer will have done enough service to the country to earn the Order of Canada when the veil issue is completed and run its petty political course and our politicians shake their collective heads and do the right thing in the right way (for a change?)

As reported in the Globe and Mail today, a truly astonishing thing happened yesterday in the Commons Procedure and House Affairs Committee. All parties yesterday pressured the CEO as a bureaucrat to “adapt” the law they passed in order to force voters to show their face before being permitted to vote. This is so wrong at so many levels it boggles the mind as to how the collective ignorance of those Committee members could manifest itself in such a perverse way.

There is nothing wrong with a law requiring this requirement for citizens to be identified and to show their faces for voter. Even those in the Muslim community most impacted have seen the need for such accommodation. If only that was what our lawmakers required in the legislation they passed earlier this year then it should be implemented by the CEO and Elections Canada. BUT that is not what the law they passed said! And now the politicians seem to be trying to shift the blame to the bureaucracy and by doing so they abdicate their governance responsibility at the same time. Shame on them! AND REMEMBER WE ELECTED THEM!

Mayrand has put the ball back in the political and lawmakers court by telling them clearly and precisely that “One of the conundrums I have here is I am being asked to change the law that was just adopted by Parliament and was debated at length…I am being asked to change the law and forcing electors to choose between two fundamental rights.” WELL SAID SIR!

Mayrand is single handedly forcing the politicians to face up to the consequences of their sloppy work, fuzzy thinking or policy making cowardice. Politicians too often skirt the hard choices of choosing between competing fundamental rights. That at the end of the day is a big part of their job as ELECTED representatives in a mature and modern democracy. They too often try to duck the heavy political lifting and avoid serious philosophical thought on the major policy issues as they superficially pummel each other in Question Period or the media.

The first duty of engaged citizenship is to be an informed voter AND be careful who you vote for.

Blogging Tory Dion Allegations Debunked

I promised to post on the allegations of a Blogging Tory on party campaign fund transfers between the Liberal Party of Canada and their leader Stephane Dion in his 2006 election campaign.

The issue has been covered so much better than I would have or could have done by the Blogger “A BCer in Toronto."

I commend you to his insight and analysis.

In summary it proves there is no tempest. No teapot and no hand in any cookie jar.

Proving only one thing – the CPC Blogging Tory blog-machine is merely reflecting the anxiety CPC brain trust and obviously nervous enough to make stuff up and then grab ant the manufactured straw to try and change the channel.

Kind of like the political bullying they are perpetrating on Elections Canada officials and the phony veil threats.