Harper's Probationary Period Is Over - It's Time For an Election

Take a few moments and read this link from CTV. It provides an interesting perspective and judging by the comments so far, an election in the late spring would be timely. It is clearly Dion’s call when to force an election. Harper tried to engineer one this past fall but that was about pure opportunity politics and not about good governance.

The sniping and carping by the Cons that is all about messaging and not governing has runs its course. We are tired of Canada’s new government and tired of being environmental front men for the Bush White House.

Harper has proven his indifference to social issues, his ineptness at environmental issues. He will expose his incapacity to deal coherently with the emerging slowdown of the economy in the Budget.

The Harper minority government was elected for two reasons. To declare our disgust with the Chrétien government and, as Gomery found, the willful blindness that enabled the corruption in the Montreal wing of the federal Liberal party. Secondly we were prepared to give the Harper Cons a chance but only as a probationary minority government.

Chrétien and Martin are history and there has been enough time for the Liberals to regroup and for Dion to assert his leadership. The probation period for Harper is also effectively over and we now know a lot more about how he would lead us and where.

It is time for an election and for the wisdom of the Canadian voter to once again to decide what policy issues we consider to be important to the future of the country and how and by whom we are to be governed.

Who is Responsible for Bhutto's Death Gets "Curiouser and Curiouser"

Andy Knight’s op-ed offers his usual well reasoned and seasoned observations on the world and its disorder. Who killed Bhutto and will we ever know is a core concern of free people everywhere and in Pakistan especially. Knight canvasses the possibilities and gives a clear analysis of the usual suspects.

My earlier post on this subject is now being fleshed out by others with more experience and knowledge. The screed being promoted by the official Pakistan government spokesman tying the Bhutto assassination to al-Qaeda is being challenged by the terrorists themselves as government propaganda.

The so-called “irrefutable evidence” of al-Qaeda as the cause of the attack and the apparently “intercepted communications” that is offered as proof by Pakistan government officials. A plain reading of the transcript is so context devoid that it is laughable as to be anything closely approaching evidence.

Political charades by charlatans with the aid of a compliant or an aggressive West is not the way to solve the problems in Pakistan, Afghanistan or Iraq – or anywhere else in the world for that matter.

I am not an adherent to any “organized religion” but these words in the Lord’s Prayer are resonating with me these days: “Lead us not into temptation and deliver us from evil.” My concern is that the temptations we pray not to be lead into are expanding and deepening as Bush toys with an Iran invasion now too. The evil is now being caused as much by “us” as it is about “them.” This is no way to live in the world and on the planet.

We need better leaders, better decision making models in governments and we need to redefine success if we are to strive and progress in anything akin to a sustainable world order.

Well Deserved Kudos to Dave Hancock

Nice to see a politician get credit where credit is due and the Edmonton Journal Editorial today does just that for Minister of Health and Wellness Dave Hancock. Well deserved kudos.

The legislated ban on smoking in pubic and workplaces has been a long time coming to Alberta but in a few days it will be a reality. Long term this policy initiative it will add significantly to the improved health and wellness of Albertans as tobacco addiction declines and smoking becomes less socially acceptable.

Full disclosure requires that note that I worked professionally on this initiative for the coalition of Alberta health advocacy and professional organizations that have been pressing the issue for years. I also helped write a lot of Dave Hancock’s policy platform for his PC leadership bid – but not his health care policy.

Mike Huckabee Should Not Be President.

We have seen Pakistan decline into some chaos with the Bhutto assassination and the leadership wizards in Bush, Gordon and Harper saying the elections that are scheduled for Jan 8 should still go ahead. What kind of cretins are these guys?

These elections are about to be boycotted by all of Pakistan's political parties but the one lead by the guy who staged a military coup and jailed or suspended the Supreme Court and now wears suits to show he is not a military dictator. Save us and spare us!

These guys harbour terrorists as well as aid and abet the Taliban's efforts to return Afghanistan to the 5th Century. And to top it all off - they are a nuclear power.

The scene shifts to Jan 3, 2008 and the pending Iowa Primaries for United States Presidential nominees of the free world. We have a shift in the leader board and Mike Huckabee is being touted as the Republican choice for leader of the free world.

If Huckabee wins Iowa and get momentum and is victorious in the this Republican nomination contest he has a shot a being President of the United States of America. Then he will have to deal directly and day to day with all he various foreign affairs issues facing the States and the rest of the free world. That is going to include dicey situations like Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanistan, the Middle East in general and minor irritants like climate change negotiations with China, India, Russia, Brazil et al - when, of course, he is not not fighting terrorists using money borrowed from China.

Rick Mercer recently spoke to then Governor Huckabee of Arkansas in his television show "Talking to Americans." Yes the same dude who is now aspiring to the office of President of the United States of America...that Mike Huckabee. His segment is in the in the first few minutes of this video and it is worth waiting for. Do not laugh! It is a terrifying piece of video wen taken in this context.

If he is that ignorant of Canada pray tell how vacuous he will be about Pakistan and the other issues he will have to deal with?

Please America, save yourselves and the rest of the free world from the Mike Huckabees in your midst.

Voter Apathy and a Perfect Storm for Alberta Politics

Here is what voter indifference can do to the future of Alberta. We are already deeply into election mode and it will be apparent after New Years. Unless our provincial political agenda changes, we can anticipate a continuation of voter apathy. This is due to the disconnect between modern machine politics and the concerns of real people who are leading real lives and facing real issues.

What if politics does not change and the cynicism and scepticism continue as the dominant political response? Well I don’t have a worst possible partisan political scenario because that really depends on your point of view and your party affiliation.

I do however have a sense of consequences of lost and bungled opportunities for the province as well as the potential for some serious political mistakes to be made…by anyone and everyone in the running.

I think citizen indifference and voter apathy is the biggest threat to mature democracies. Apathy and indifference is not only the fault of the citizens. The political system has to take much of the blame. For those fans of proportional representation, stifle yourselves. It is not a cure…it is more likely to add complications to the affliction and erode the necessary capacity for effective on-going governing.

Here is what I think can happen as a consequence of citizen apathy and voter indifference. It is entirely possible we could end up with new leadership races in the PC, Alberta Liberals and the NDP in 2008. If that were to happen we would have squandered the opportunity for meaningful change and will set Alberta on a course of least 2 more years of drift and dissonance.

Here is my armchair quarterbacking that drives Alberta to that result. There is a PC repeat and amplification of the 2004 and the recent Calgary by election phenomenon. The far right goes to the Alliance and other marginal parties weakening the rural stronghold of the PCs. They are spread thinly and make no real electoral inroads.

The progressives stay home in disgust or show up in anger and send a message to the powers that be by parking their ballots with the Greens. Why the Greens? It is perceived as a safe parking place because it does not help the Liberals directly and sends a strong message to the PCs that the policy agenda is dated. Women and youth who do show up will be angry as well and go to the Greens too. This will be a protest vote about the relevance and priorities of the public policy agenda and mainline party platforms.

The consequence is a PC minority government. That means the knives are going to be out for Stelmach for obvious reasons. The Alberta Liberals will benefit from more seats but they are also going to be after Taft’s head too. Because he would be seen as unsuccessful and ineffective in going for the kill and gaining the political power he ought to have realized in the face of an "obviously weakened" PC party.

The Greens don’t even have to elect anyone to be seen as winners. They get a big bump in popular vote and due to protests, anger and ballot parking they rival or perhaps even surpass the NDP popular vote. That will strike fear in the hearts of the Alberta NDP and been seen across the country as a foreshadowing of what may happen to the Dippers in the forthcoming federal election too. Brian Mason’s leadership also gets challenged as a result.

A PC minority government in March of 2008 will likely results in three political party leadership campaigns by late 2008. Who knows what the outcomes of those exercises will be? One thing for sure is if this happens any semblance of real governing will be suspended for at least another year. A lack of governing focus and capacity could roll over well into 2010 and beyond as another election will undoubtedly happen sooner than later.

Uncertainty then becomes the new normal in Alberta. Not a good thing and nothing we are very used to. Frankly I don't see this happening if the political parties, particularly the PCs, get their acts together and become relevant to the lives of Albertans again.

One thing for sure though, even without this perfect storm scenario, Alberta politics are guaranteed to be interesting for the first time in a long time.