Want the "Final Word" on the Alberta Election Results - It's In the Stars!

Finally, we have a political analysis on the Alberta election that eschews the pretense of authenticity of opinion polls. Check out the range of scientific the various opinion poll results we have been getting from numerous sources on the Alberta election.

Rick Mercer shows us the dark underbelly truth about polls and just because it is funny does not mean what he says isn't true.

I plan to drink some wine tonight and get out the Ouija Board and do some serious prognostication about the election results myself.

Remember the world is run by those who show up and in a democracy you always get the government you deserve - whether you voted or not.

Show up and vote tomorrow. It is only about you having your say about the future of Alberta that is at stake here. No big whoop!

Edmonton Riverview Survey Shows BIG UNDECIDED NUMBERS

There is a kind of hush all over the province this week end as Albertans reflect on the future of their province and who will best serve as our next Premier. Then there is the question of which local candidate is the most aligned with the personal perspectives and aspirations of voters to represent them in the Legislature. Not an easy decision but one an informed and engaged citizen must make on Monday.

There is one constituency where the weekend hush of reflection has been replaced by a vigorous campaign BUZZ. That BUZZ is what is happening in Edmonton Riverview where the PC candidate Wendy Andrews and her Green Theme as has snuck up on Alberta Liberal Leader, Kevin Taft.

A recent telephone survey of 3,453 Edmonton Riverview constituents was done by Banister Research. The findings are the basis for the PC BUZZ in this constituency campaign. Change is in the political air in Alberta in this election and these survey results prove it in spades.

Look at these numbers. There were 12409 original constituency household phone numbers called last week. There were 3,453 actual respondents who were asked would they support Wendy Andrews, yes or no. Here is what they said. There were 992 (28.7%) who supported the PC’s Andrews and 1,092 (31.6%) who will not.

Here is the kicker!!! There are 1369 – that is 39.6% - who are UNDECIDED in Edmonton Riverview at this late stage of the campaign.

This is in Alberta Liberal Leader, Kevin Taft’s home riding. Last election the Alberta Liberal leader, Dr. Kevin Taft got 65% of the vote. This time he looks like he is in a much closer contest. Time will tell.

This survey result has the makings of an upset if those undecided voters show up for change in the form of the Wendy Andrews and her Fresh Thinking green theme campaign. My guess is the Wendy Andrew’s Get-Out-The-Vote volunteers will be energized and vigorous on Monday. Will it be panicky and nerve-wracking for the Taft campaign in Edmonton Riverview tomorrow? Looks like it.

In any event getting out the vote is what will make ALL the difference in the Edmonton Riverview outcome on Monday night. Based on the size of the undecided factor, Edmonton Riverview just became another key race for the whole province to watch.

"All I am Saying is Give Ed a Chance."

UPDATE March 2/08 - THE STRATEGIC VOTING SECOND GUESSING HAS STARTED IN CALGARY. CHECK OUT LICIA CORBELLA IN THE CALGARY HERALD.

This weekend in Alberta has been eerily quiet and anxiety raising for the hard-core partisan campaigners off all political stripes who have been working hard for local candidates and their leaders in this election. This is because no one really knows what will happen tomorrow at the polling booth.

The opinion polls are all over the map. The undecided is high, there are 300,000 new Albertans since the last election and they are a wild card. The old political "order of things" in the power structure of Alberta is changing too.

Personally I am neither optimistic nor pessimistic…I am fatalistic. Que sera sera is how I see it. The citizens of Alberta who show up and vote will decide our future and I trust their wisdom. Albertans are quitely reflecting this weekend and struggling to make up their minds about how they will vote. They hold the future of the province in their collective hands and they are weighing the alternative choices before them and considering the consequences.

There are many regional differences and issues in play all over the provionce. Indications are that Ed’s rural vote is holding and Edmonton is firming up behind Ed where polls say he can expect more seats. The deep south is in play in some places and there are some other intereting local campaigns to watch too. And then there is the Calgary factor.

In Calgary it is all about choosing between being pissed with Ed Stelmach (because he is not one of them) or being practical and pragmatic about their continuing place in Alberta’s political power structure. This choice is made especially problematic for Calgary’s power brokers if Edmonton goes to Ed this time and he ends up with a comfortable majority. Sending message to Ed by voting RED is one thing but losing influence to Edmonton - that would be too much to bear.

There is an interesting and telling comment in the Edmonton Journal today that quotes a U of C political scientist who said “Calgary’s not used to being ignored.” Calgary has not been ignored by Stelmach since he won the PC leadership, and particularly since he called this election campaign. But Alberta has changed and it is no longer “Ralph’s World.” In Ralph’s World , Klein did not so much "own" Calgary as the Calgary elites "owned" Ralph. They had Klein's ear and he pretty much did what they whispered into it.

But now there is a new man in charge and he comes from northern and rural Alberta. He is definitely not from Calgary...and that is disquieting for the Calgaty old-boys who firmly believed what was good for Calgary was defacto good for the rest of Alberta. Ed is not in the pockets of these energy elites nor is he beholden to them. As a result the old energy sector power players don’t know how to respond to him except to be personally condescendingly at times, brashly aggressive at other time, especially over royalties, and a tad defensively too, from time to time.

The energy elites in Calgary are used to being “The Loop” not merely in the loop. The Calgary energy elite angst is made more complicated as they wonder and weigh what will be their future influence in Alberta politics if they go RED and Ed wins a comfortable majority particularly because of a strong “EDmonton” showing. The Edmonton outcome is still uncertain but that does not make the Calgary power-broker-voter decision any easier as they try and figure out how they can stay “in control and in charge of Alberta.”

In any event, sometime tomorrow night we will know the outcomes of this election. There will be many different outcomes depending on your perspectives and aspirations for the province - and your place in it. By Tuesday, the past will just be the past and Alberta will be moving on in one way or another, in one direction or another and with a new government with a new mandate.

I just hope the election results are clear and conclusive and not vague and variable. If the latter happens we will waste a lot more of our precious time fumbling around trying to get our political act together trying to get our future directions and destinations defined, designed and delivered. We have already lollygagged for 8 years at the end of Ralph’s World.” Alberta can’t afford 2 or 3 more years of wondering, wandering and squandering our future opportunities and potential.

Harper Should Immediately Call for an Inquiry Over the Cadman-Con Affair.

Adam at 9:19 on the previous post in the Blog commented as follows:

1. Chuck Cadman himself publicly said he was not offered anything.

2. Dona Cadman is now running for the Conservatives and indicated that there was nothing unbecoming.

3. The Liberals fear saying anything outside the House because they will be immediately slapped with a defamation lawsuit.

4. Finally, there is no insurance company in the world that would ever give a $1 million policy to someone who is terminally ill. Only an idiot would think that can happen.

It is sad that you say federal politics is boring until the federal liberals decide to sling mud. Your party is neutered and losing credibility - harping on "character" is not going to help the Liberals.


Adam - your Comment points beg for rebuttal AND a post if its own...so here goes.

#1 - Cadman said in media scrums and comment that he was not offered anything by Martin or Harper...however he was not asked by the media about offers from Mr. Harper’s operatives. In fact Mr. Harper says on tape in an interview for the book that he knew his operatives were making Cadman “a financial offer” allegedly to offset his cost of a pending election!!! Mr. Cadman was near death at the time and not going to be a candidate in an election caused by the non confidence vote. Mr. Cadman passed away two months after the vote. HOW stupid is that representation as a defense to the allegations at hand?

#2 Yes I understand that Mrs. Cadman is running for the Cons and that must be very awkward for you guys. You will likely end up paying her off or even refuse to sign her nomination papers under the circumstance. Your party has a history of treating nominee you don’t very like badly – forcing some to even sue you to honour the “expense deals” made to get them out of the way.

This is potentially a much bigger deal and could be a matter of influence peddling - a criminal offence. Mrs. Cadman is not, as far as I know, a lawyer, nor familiar with the law in this area or the influence peddling provisions of the Criminal Code. So it is not likely we can rely on her as one to adequately judge if the offer was "unbecoming" or not. We have police investigations, prosecutors and the courts to make those determinations for our society.

#3 - Why should any parliamentarian say anything outside the Commons about this matter? It is not their allegations and questionable behaviours that are at issue here. Besides it is all in a book and on tape and all over the media. If you Cons want to sue, you can sue the media coverage of the story if it is over the line. You can sue the author and maybe you will want to burn his books while you are at it. You can sue Mr. Cadman's wife and his daughter who are confirming the allegation in the book, apparently from first hand conversations with Mr. Cadman. These individuals are all outside the protection of parliamentary privilege. Go for it boys. If you want a legal action you have it against those actually making the allegations, not parliamentarians who are just doing their job on behalf of Canadians.

#4 Correct, there is no insurance company in the world who would issue a policy on Mr. Cadman's life given his terminal illness. Unless of course someone was prepared to lie or mislead on insurance application...but I am not accusing anyone of that…heaven forbid. Besides – it never happened because Mr. Cadman is reported to have thrown Mr. Harper’s operatives out of his office at the suggestion of such a scam.

Speaking of misleading scams, how gullible do you Cons think we Canadians are? We are being asked to accept that there was no offer of a $1m insurance policy to Mr. Cadman in exchange for his vote, even when the allegations are confirmed by two primary sources, Mr. Cadman’s wife and his daughter. They have nothing to gain by being misleading on these issues. In fact, Mrs. Cadman may have something to lose. She will likely have to face some concerns and reservations by the CPC as to her continuation as a candidate in light of her comments and her confirmation of these alleged events.

Instead, we are being asked to believe Mr. Harper’s version of events. He says that so far as he knew, the “financial offer” his operatives were making to Mr. Cadman was an offer to pick up his election costs. That presumes Mr. Cadman's candidacy in the election that would result from his support of the Cons in the pending non-confidence vote. That makes no more and no less sense than the possibility of a $1m insurance policy offer allegation. Perhaps both offers were made. Who knows but that does not matter in the larger scheme of things going on here.

The facts about Mr. Cadman' health were well known to all of Canada at the time of these incidences and allegations. And the facts were that, Mr. Cadman was in the final stages of his life at the time the non-confidence vote was being initiated by the Cons. That vote, given Mr. Cadman’s support, the Cons would be able to defeat the Martin government and trigger an election which Mr. Harper desperately wanted. The political stakes were high for the Harper Cons at the time the operatives were allegedly making certain “financial offers” to Mr. Cadman in exchange for his vote.

The allegations that are being made, if they are proven to be influence pedaling, will result in the potential for some high stakes and dire consequences for individuals involved. It will also have dire consequences about the respectability, the credibility and the suitability of Mr. Harper and his party to be worthy of the consent of the citizens of Canada to govern.

The stories the Cons are trying to spin about this is incredible and insulting. They are looking more and more like a cross between the Keystone Kops and Rasputin with all the efforts at obfuscation and the mockery and mocking defenses. They are now backpedaling on earlier positions in the face of the new facts that are coming out. The new facts are becoming a growing litany that are already well beyond the Cons traditional and trademark damage control and issues management techniques.

None of your points hold water adam. It is time to come clean boys. You should immediately implore your leader to call a judicial inquiry into this embarrassing and debasing Con-induced mess. Do it out of decency, for the good of the country and out of respect for the Office of the Prime Minister...if nothing else.

The Con-Cadman Affair Goes to the Character of the Conservative Party

I am up to my ears in the Alberta election BUT one can’t help but wonder at the goings on around the Con-Cadman Affair. Next week I will have more time to get into it but in the meantime check out this post from DustMyBrooom – it will make you “bristle.”

Emporer Harper and his minions have some 'splaining to do...perhaps to the RCMP?