UPDATE March 2/08 - THE STRATEGIC VOTING SECOND GUESSING HAS STARTED IN CALGARY. CHECK OUT LICIA CORBELLA IN THE CALGARY HERALD.
This weekend in Alberta has been eerily quiet and anxiety raising for the hard-core partisan campaigners off all political stripes who have been working hard for local candidates and their leaders in this election. This is because no one really knows what will happen tomorrow at the polling booth.
The opinion polls are all over the map. The undecided is high, there are 300,000 new Albertans since the last election and they are a wild card. The old political "order of things" in the power structure of Alberta is changing too.
Personally I am neither optimistic nor pessimistic…I am fatalistic. Que sera sera is how I see it. The citizens of Alberta who show up and vote will decide our future and I trust their wisdom. Albertans are quitely reflecting this weekend and struggling to make up their minds about how they will vote. They hold the future of the province in their collective hands and they are weighing the alternative choices before them and considering the consequences.
There are many regional differences and issues in play all over the provionce. Indications are that Ed’s rural vote is holding and Edmonton is firming up behind Ed where polls say he can expect more seats. The deep south is in play in some places and there are some other intereting local campaigns to watch too. And then there is the Calgary factor.
In Calgary it is all about choosing between being pissed with Ed Stelmach (because he is not one of them) or being practical and pragmatic about their continuing place in Alberta’s political power structure. This choice is made especially problematic for Calgary’s power brokers if Edmonton goes to Ed this time and he ends up with a comfortable majority. Sending message to Ed by voting RED is one thing but losing influence to Edmonton - that would be too much to bear.
There is an interesting and telling comment in the Edmonton Journal today that quotes a U of C political scientist who said “Calgary’s not used to being ignored.” Calgary has not been ignored by Stelmach since he won the PC leadership, and particularly since he called this election campaign. But Alberta has changed and it is no longer “Ralph’s World.” In Ralph’s World , Klein did not so much "own" Calgary as the Calgary elites "owned" Ralph. They had Klein's ear and he pretty much did what they whispered into it.
But now there is a new man in charge and he comes from northern and rural Alberta. He is definitely not from Calgary...and that is disquieting for the Calgaty old-boys who firmly believed what was good for Calgary was defacto good for the rest of Alberta. Ed is not in the pockets of these energy elites nor is he beholden to them. As a result the old energy sector power players don’t know how to respond to him except to be personally condescendingly at times, brashly aggressive at other time, especially over royalties, and a tad defensively too, from time to time.
The energy elites in Calgary are used to being “The Loop” not merely in the loop. The Calgary energy elite angst is made more complicated as they wonder and weigh what will be their future influence in Alberta politics if they go RED and Ed wins a comfortable majority particularly because of a strong “EDmonton” showing. The Edmonton outcome is still uncertain but that does not make the Calgary power-broker-voter decision any easier as they try and figure out how they can stay “in control and in charge of Alberta.”
In any event, sometime tomorrow night we will know the outcomes of this election. There will be many different outcomes depending on your perspectives and aspirations for the province - and your place in it. By Tuesday, the past will just be the past and Alberta will be moving on in one way or another, in one direction or another and with a new government with a new mandate.
In Calgary it is all about choosing between being pissed with Ed Stelmach (because he is not one of them) or being practical and pragmatic about their continuing place in Alberta’s political power structure. This choice is made especially problematic for Calgary’s power brokers if Edmonton goes to Ed this time and he ends up with a comfortable majority. Sending message to Ed by voting RED is one thing but losing influence to Edmonton - that would be too much to bear.
There is an interesting and telling comment in the Edmonton Journal today that quotes a U of C political scientist who said “Calgary’s not used to being ignored.” Calgary has not been ignored by Stelmach since he won the PC leadership, and particularly since he called this election campaign. But Alberta has changed and it is no longer “Ralph’s World.” In Ralph’s World , Klein did not so much "own" Calgary as the Calgary elites "owned" Ralph. They had Klein's ear and he pretty much did what they whispered into it.
But now there is a new man in charge and he comes from northern and rural Alberta. He is definitely not from Calgary...and that is disquieting for the Calgaty old-boys who firmly believed what was good for Calgary was defacto good for the rest of Alberta. Ed is not in the pockets of these energy elites nor is he beholden to them. As a result the old energy sector power players don’t know how to respond to him except to be personally condescendingly at times, brashly aggressive at other time, especially over royalties, and a tad defensively too, from time to time.
The energy elites in Calgary are used to being “The Loop” not merely in the loop. The Calgary energy elite angst is made more complicated as they wonder and weigh what will be their future influence in Alberta politics if they go RED and Ed wins a comfortable majority particularly because of a strong “EDmonton” showing. The Edmonton outcome is still uncertain but that does not make the Calgary power-broker-voter decision any easier as they try and figure out how they can stay “in control and in charge of Alberta.”
In any event, sometime tomorrow night we will know the outcomes of this election. There will be many different outcomes depending on your perspectives and aspirations for the province - and your place in it. By Tuesday, the past will just be the past and Alberta will be moving on in one way or another, in one direction or another and with a new government with a new mandate.
I just hope the election results are clear and conclusive and not vague and variable. If the latter happens we will waste a lot more of our precious time fumbling around trying to get our political act together trying to get our future directions and destinations defined, designed and delivered. We have already lollygagged for 8 years at the end of Ralph’s World.” Alberta can’t afford 2 or 3 more years of wondering, wandering and squandering our future opportunities and potential.
As far as I'm concerned, It'll be a test whether Albertans care about the environment or not, or whether they could care less as Big Oil runs rampant, and Ed Stelmach allows them.
ReplyDeleteA strong opposition vote will send a message that they do care about the air they breathe and the water they drink.
In a democracy, it is NOT healthy to have the same pilots at the helm for 37 years! The day will come when the Alberta PC's go down to defeat. That day will come.
ReplyDeleteThere should be only one substantive issue in this election and that is the refreshment of government in Alberta.
Open the windows and let out the stale air that has been sitting in the halls of power since 1971!
The desperation I sense from the Progressive Conservatives is to me, some measure of proof that there should be a change of administration in that great province.
It will happen. If not tomorrow, one day soon, the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta will go down to defeat .... and THAT will be a VERY healthy day for democracy in Alberta!
Hi Leftdog...it is inaccurate to presume that the PC party has been the same for 37 years.
ReplyDeleteThe PC Party of Alberta has changed dramatically, at least 7 distinct times the I know and can identify.
It has also changed very significantly in the past 14 months under Stelmach.
It has had 37 years of service to Albertans and has been choosen by Albertans for governing in 10 successive democratically decided elections.
That means this Party has been the most responsive and adaptable to the changing needs of this province - as seen and decided by the citizens of this province in al those elections.
Is this party still the one preferred by Albertans to serve Albertans needs? Albertans are the ones who get to decide that - and we will all know the answer to that question tomorrow night.
Stay tuned. It promises to be interesting.
I just don't buy into the Tory line that somehow Progressive Conservatives are NOT Progressive Conservatives!
ReplyDeleteAlberta needs a change of administration - period! The Alberta Legislature is overflowing with all of the political skeletons that one party can accumulate after decades of back room political shenanigans, shady deals, power struggles, corruption, etc, etc.
Ken, I want to thank you for the comment made in response to Leftdog.
ReplyDeleteNot sure why comments keep being made about it not being healthy that the same party governs for an extended period. They are democractically elected under the same parliamentary system that has seen provincial governments across the country elected. Its the same system that has seen consecutive Liberal governments elected nationally (not that I am happy with that!).
Yes, the PCs have been the model of change and alteration. We saw the spendthrift Getty era replaced by a popular premier whose primary job was to slay the deficit and the debt. He stayed one election too long and now, as we are the envy of North America being free of fiscal debt, the reins have been handed over. The challenge to Ed Stelmach is to manage the unrealistic expectations of a provincial population overtaken by a boom mentality where everything can be paid for by jumping Scrooge McDuck style into that room full of coins generated by royalties (and a lot of folks have been seduced into thinking that those royalties can be jacked up to the stratosphere and just keep rolling in without limit!).
Mr. Stelmach and the significantly large number of new Tory MLAs deserve our respect. They will execute what is a realistic plan and one that will secure this Province's rightful place as the leader across this continent.
Over a third of the PC caucus is retiring due to this election. There are lots of new candidates from all over the province. Some will win and some incumbents will be defeated. New faces will abound.
ReplyDeleteRegeneration of a party should happen with every leadership change and it has in the Alberta PC ever since I have been involved.
It is true that the PC party has had several faces and "regenerated" several times during its 37 years in power. It also cannot be blamed for staying in power - that has been the choice of Albertans (at least as reflected through the distortion of our particular electoral system). But what this benign interpretation of democracy overlooks is the corrupting effect of one party being too long identified with government.
ReplyDeleteThis syndrome was seen twice in this election camapign. The first, and most important was the appointment of Tory insiders to returning officer positions throughout the province. The second was the Chinook Health Region board member who referred to her board position in an endorsement of the Tories. Both of these situations came about apparently because those involved were oblivious to the distinction between the Tory party and the provincial government. I have seen this syndrome also exhibited at all level of the civil service, where loyalty to the party is seen as a carrer advantage, and not one to be low-key about.
In a healthy, functioning liberal democracy the political policy-makers are conceptual separate from the policy-implementing, and politically-neutral civil service (including those responsibe for the electoal process). In Alberta that line has been blurred, if not lost altogether.
The only way to reverse this problematic trend is to remind everyone - politicans, civil servants and citizens - that the government is not a single party, that it can change, and the only way to drive that point home is to demonstrate it before the world.
I agree with everything you say One Alberta Vote. Stelmach's changing from the Klein one party policy committees to all party is a step in the right direction. Remember 70% of Albertans approved of Klein's performance as Premier when the party turfed him as leader...go figure!!! Citizens of Alberta also have to take some of this responsiblity.
ReplyDeleteOther key Stelmach changes in the right direction for democracy is having an all party task force to take on affordable housing AND releasing the Royalty Review Report to the public the same day he got it was another positive step in opening up government. There are more examples but you get my drift.
PCs are not perfect but the change in Leadership has made a significant difference already. There must be more to come obviously
Stelmach was at the table with Klein for 14 years. To call him a change is laughable. I never heard one peep of dissent from Stelmach that whole time. He endorsed the Klein position on every decision. (or he lacks a back bone)
ReplyDeleteStelmach put in his cabinet people that were all elected under the Klein banner.
This is the same old tired bunch of people. No original ideas and looking to occupy an MLA seat rather than using the opportunity to set an exciting aganda for Albertans.
Stelmach was at the table with Klein for 14 years. To call him a change is laughable. I never heard one peep of dissent from Stelmach that whole time. He endorsed the Klein position on every decision. (or he lacks a back bone)
ReplyDeleteStelmach put in his cabinet people that were all elected under the Klein banner.
This is the same old tired bunch of people. No original ideas and looking to occupy an MLA seat rather than using the opportunity to set an exciting aganda for Albertans.
Anon @ 12:36 - this reality of not allowing Cabinet Ministers to differ is so "old school" and damaging to representative democracy. I understand the need for a unified voice coming out of Cabinet but I don't see why Ministers are silent on their positions going IN!
ReplyDeleteSo what if they don't carry the day in the final result. I want to know that there is a range of opnions, ideas and alternatives under consideration when Cabinet debates and deliberates a policy decision and it is not just top down or group think.
Citizens can handle complexity and the media can learn to handle it.
We don't know if a minister held a difference view because the Premier's office used to exercise too much advanced message control. Harper is a master at this. We can be forgiven if we were to presume most of Harper's Cabinet Ministers are deaf mutes...they say so little and listen so poorly.
Hancock closed down a hospital and "dispensed" with the board right in the Premier's riding because of poor health conditions. He did not first ask for permisssion of the Premier's office or Cabinet behind closed doors. He did his job for Albertans first and we need more of that.