Polls Show 51% Oppose a Harper Majority - Let the Strategic Voting Begin

The vibrations about strategic voting are starting to pick up resonance in the land. Harper is “achingly close” to a majority with some poll and seat projector results last week. Harper’s new musing about wanting a majority was to be expected. Why is it reasonable to expect this?


Because at the beginning of the election Harper said just the opposite! He said when he called the election, breaking his own fixed date election law to do it, he said expected and would be “satisfied” with another minority government. We know from past experience that when Harper says one thing he means another…like not wanting a majority. Of course he wants a majority, and it looks like he will be getting it if current trends continue.


Get used to being afraid of your government’s power over you if Harper gets a majority. It could happen. Unless, of course Canadians wake up to that fact and realize what a mistake they would be. Harper is a one-man-band control freak and a misleading master manipulator. Canadians will have to stop him and that will take some strategic voting given the split in the Lib/NDP/Green voters.


The “appetite” for a Conservative majority is also at 40% and 51% would not be happy with a Harper majority and only 11% are not sure. This is according to a new Ipsos Reid poll released Sunday September 28. Harper is obviously a love him or hate him kind of guy. Those who love him are older and middle aged men and those who have him are younger Canadians.


This is a recipe for strategic voting, which will start in earnest after the debates this week. That same poll was showing 39% of us are in favour of strategic voting to stop Harper and 45% are against it. Some 16% are not sure what they think about strategic voting.


The strategic voters will tend to vote Liberal (44%) followed by NDP (26%) with Greens getting strategic voter support from 14%. Only 3% of strategic voters have not yet made up their minds. I expect the Green strategic voters in Ontario and Atlantic Canada will shift Liberal and the NDP vote in Quebec will shift to the Bloc.


The vote swapping websites and the anti-Harper websites and Facebook pages and anti-Harper Premier Danny Williams will all start to turn up the heat, volume and activity for strategic voting. More on how to do this will be in future posts.

$700B Bailout! Is It A Deal or No Deal?

The bubble has burst on the "brain trust" that was the American financial sector. This is the biggest government bailout in history. Deal or No Deal is the question and this bailout is not a slam dunk yet. Where is Howie Mandel when you need him? The package is still in some serious trouble with opposition from a significant segment of the Washington political class – House Republicans.

The very same Bush-league laissez-faire Republicans who our own Harper Conservatives see themselves as Bush-Republican clones. These guys have systematically reduce the responsible role of government to protect citizens from excess and abuses of greed and graft.

As the Congress and White House look at passing a law on how to nationalize the American financial sector they are putting the taxpayer on the hook of $700B of more borrowed money. No doubt that money will be from more borrowing that will undoubtedly come from China one again. This will serve to make the Americans even more vulnerable and subject to the whim of the Chinese.

The chance for a world-wide recession is still very real and confidence in the marketplace is going to erode significantly, including Canada. The expectations are for a steep economic decline as credit tightens up. The TSX is down over 535 points as the time of writing and crude oil is down $6 a barrel.

The Report On Business front page story today shows that Canadian CEOs are the most pessimistic they have been in years. The Harper claims that Canada is on track for a surplus this fiscal year because just one month has shown as surplus so far does not add up. Confidence has shifted under Harper’s watch. In June 2008 58% of CEOs were looking for moderate to strong growth in the Canadian economy. One quarter later, the September 2008 confidence shows 60% of CEOs now believe the economy will go into strong or moderate decline. This is more volatility that we have seen in the election polls this time around.

It is time to look seriously at Harper’s approach to crisis. Can a one-man-band who thinks he is the only smart person in any room he visits be worth the risk? The Conservative bench strength has Harper and Prentice as the talent – now that Emerson is gone. Skills and competence of the Harper cabinet drops off dramatically after those two men. There is no “I” in team and there is no Harper team either. Do we dare put our entire future into the hands of one man – namely Mr. Harper? All of us are smarter than one of us Mr. Harper.

The Liberals have lots of bench strength economically, environmentally and socially and a proven positive record in managing the economy in tough times. It is time to bring back Paul Martin, the best Finance Minister Canada has ever had. He turned a $46B Mulroney deficit into a long time string of balanced budgets, paid down debt and ended up with a $12B surplus.

Harper squandered that $12B surplus in less than 2 years. The facts show that Harper is not the fiscal managers and stewards of the taxpayer’s dollars. He misleads in this area like he does in many other policy areas. Harper is not only not worth the risk. He is the risk.

We are all going to be in this together and for a long time. We should deal with it together...not just depend on Harper as a one-man political and policy band to deliver us from this evil. Vote for a team approach and that means you need to vote Liberal on October 14th.

Harper Keeps Media Away From Candidate Cadman...Chuck's Widow

More evidence Mr. Harper is opposed to or afraid of Free Speech. Apparently reporters were not allowed to talk to Chuck Cadman's widow and Conservative candidate at a recent Harper political rally in B.C.. This is leadership in a a free and open society that values democracy? Harper clearly does not want citizen to get informed on the issues in this campaign nor to investigate his political character in this election.

Harper fears what will happen if citizens engage, get informed and show up to vote. They may make a consider decision and not be subjected only to the mediated and manipulated by spin by the Harper War Room.

It is even more alarming to consider the point in this CTV blog post that the RCMP may be engaging in partisan politics beyond "protecting" Harper. It appears they are actively keeping reporters away from speaking to protesters and candidates. If so they are not "Serving and Protecting." They are keeping the truth from Canadians.

UPDATE: I just got Kady O'Malley's take on this RCMP shilling too. It is worth reading and reflecting on as Harper rehearses for a police state.

Harper's "Drive By Smearing" of Alberta Does Not Sit Well

Neil Waugh of the Edmonton Sun has trouble understanding that I can support the Alberta PC Party and vote Liberal federally. He once said I stood out in the Alberta PC Party “like a mustard stain on a tie.” I liked that, especially coming from Neil. I also like what Waugh has to say about Harper’s “drive by smearing” of Alberta last week.

Last week Harper, in Trudeau- like arrogance, once again decided to unilaterally imposed Ottawa into Alberta’s Constitutional rights over our natural resources. Is a new Ottawa politically inspired NEP being imposed on Alberta and this time from a Prime Minister ELECTED from Alberta? What breathtaking political overconfidence. This is just another example of how consistently Harper takes Albertans for granted.

Without any prior notice to the Alberta government, never mind some polite, if not required, intergovernmental consultation on such critical issues, Stephen Harper, the man who would be "President of Canada", waltzed into Calgary last week and kicked Alberta in the economic groin. He stood up and said he as Prime Minister would be the “Decider” about what countries would be eligible to buy our Alberta bitumen - and on what terms.

Harper has proven through his betrayal on Income Trusts that we can't trust his word. He has proven that he has no respect for the Rule of Law in how be broke even his own law on fixed elections. Now we know he has no respect for Federalism, Alberta and keeping government from interfering in the free market system. How UnConservative can you get?

Harper has been taking Alberta and Albertans for granted for over a decade. Alberta needs to send him a message on October 14 and show him we are not his lap dogs. Nor are we Albertans going to continue to act like sheep that he can depend upon to be herded into the voting booth with our ballots already mentally marked for his party and his "leadership."

Change in conservative politics in Alberta has happened before. Albertans sent the Ralph Klein leadership a strong message in the 2004 provincial election when 210,000 supporters stayed home or voted Alliance. The PC Party deposed Ralph a few months later, much to his surprise. Presumptive front runners, Dinning and Morton were found to be wanting in the last PC leadership contest and were denied power by the voters. Stelmach won! Significant political changes do happen - even in Alberta!

It is time for Alberta to send President Harper an equally strong message about change. Not showing up to vote is not the best way to send the message. Low turnout allows the politically powerful presume you are content with them and the status quo since you could not be bothered to show up at the polls. They conveniently fail to recognize the protest in low voter participation.

Showing up and voting strategically works much better. If you want to simply park your vote, vote Green. They will not elect anyone but it encourages them and they get $1.75 for each vote. That helps them get organized and get their message out for next time. Disgruntled conservatives can vote swap and support independent conservative candidates in Edmonton Sherwood Park (Jim Ford), as well as in Calgary and Medicine Hat.

If you want a wise, informed, strong contrarian ecological voice, you can arrange to help Linda Duncan, a Dipper, in Edmonton Strathcona. Imagine how the national media would react if Alberta sent a Dipper to Ottawa. The overzealous Conservative Party War Room would have to do some serious soul searching if that were to happen in Alberta.

If you want to drive Harper to distraction then help out Liberal Jim Wachowich in Edmonton Centre. Last election the Cons threw everything they had at Anne McLellan and finally beat her. Anne McLellan won this seat many times against all odds, with slight margins because of a strong campaign organization, exemplary personal qualities and by tapping into the contrarian Edmonton political spirit. Jim Wachowich has inherited that mantle from Anne is ready, willing and able to represent that contrarian Edmonton Centre spirit again.

It is your country and your province and the election results decide YOUR government. In a democracy you always get the government you deserve, whether you voted or not. Tired of Harper taking you for granted? Let him know that in no uncertain terms with a smart choice and a strategic vote on October 14.

Harper Takes on Alberta's Natural Resource Rights Over Oil Sands.

I like what the Sudbury Star has to say in its Editorial Today. Isn't this supposed to be Deep Blue Harper country? People are catching on to Harper, taking a second look and realizing he can't be trusted.

As for bring a steady hand on the economy in uncertain times, he blew that in Calgary on Friday. He created enormous uncertainty in the Alberta oilsands sector with his no bitumen export sales unless he says so. This is a direct interference in Alberta's Constitutinal right of control over natrual resources.

It is not just an Alberta issue since the oilsands are the only thing driving the Canadian economy these days. Remember 60% of all Canadian oilsands activity and money happens outside Alberta. Everyone will suffer from the inevitable economic declines adn increased political uncertainty due to Harper's interference in the marketplace. Some free trader he has turned out to be.