By Election Results Shows that Alberta PC's & Premier Stelmach Have Some Serious Soul Searching to do!

UPDATE Sept 16/09: Now I just got home from Edson and read Dan Arnold's like-minded piece on the implications of the Calgary Glenmore by election in the National Post. Worth a read.

Just got home from meetings in Jasper and looked at the Calgary Glenmore by election results. Congratulations to WAP's Paul Hinman for his impressive victory. The results are going to have to take some time to sink in especially as the PCs start to reflect on the implications of these results.



The PC percentage vote was cut in half in a seat they have held since 1969 and held by the Deputy Premier in the Stelmach PC government. Clearly some PCs stayed home and some switched to WAP in this by election. In the March 2008 election PCs got 6436 votes for 51%, same percentage vote as in the 2004 election. Today with a high quality candidate with lots of name recognition, the PCs fell to 26% of the popular vote. ASTONISHING!


The total turnout for this by election was 41% (11,208 votes) compared to 44% (12701) votes in 2008 when there was a very poor turnout in Calgary PC country as they tried to send Stelmach a message. In the 2008 election the WAP vote was non-existent at 8% (1025 votes) Well this time the WAP supporters showed up and lots other conservatively inclined Calgarians decided to use this by election to send a very strong message.


Last time there was such a dramatic rejection of a PC candidate in Calgary was in 1992 at the end of the Getty era when Rod Love came in third behind a Liberal and an NDP candidate garnering only about 15% of the total vote.

The Liberals came in second again and held their position in terms of popular vote at 34% compared to 33% in 2008.

So the Monday morning political quarterbacks will be out in droves for the next few days. Here are some grounding realities that can cut both ways. This is a by election and there is 3 years until the next election, lots can happen. There is a WAP leadership in a month that will frame them in a certain way, for good or ill for their longer term political fortunes.

The Liberals are in suspended animation floating in a political weightlessness bouncing off issues and events but not creating them. The Greens are a spend force due to internal squabbling. The NDP are still trying to perfect yesterday and Albertans are happy with them a the Jiminy Cricket kind of conscience of government but not ever to be a government.

The political reaction from Premier Stelmach is what I will be watching for. How will the Premier's Office interpret and respond to this slap up the side of the head? How will the core group of Stelmach's leadership team who brung him to the dance respond. They are all in Cabinet so it will be interesting to see how they respond and what they do to change things.

What will be the PC Caucus reaction? They used to tolerate Klein's shortcomings, both personally and politically, because most of the PC MLAs felt that they owed Klein their seat. He was always more popular than the party. None of the current caucus owes Stelmach their seat. PC caucus reaction will be interesting to watch.

How will the PC party membership respond in the November AGM leadership review vote? Will the rally behind the Premier? Will the Social Conservatives in the party, who had a group of about 12 like-minded MLAs orchestrate Bill 44, feel even more emboldened and vote against Stelmach? Will the Progressives decide to stay home? Or will the party show up and rally around and support Stelmach? Or will they vote confidence in the leadership because they want to support the "brand" as much or more than the leadership?

What if Stelmach gets around 70% support? Will that be enough to keep control of the government? What if he does a Joe Clark and says he wants to reaffirm his leadership with another leadership contest? That would have to happen pretty quickly given the turmoil in the economy and the strain on the social contract. My guess is only Ted Morton could be up and ready to go to challenge the current leadership.

Politics is a cruel and all too often, a blood sport. Based on this by election, the recession, budget cuts now and much more next year and the political power shift to the right in the PC party since the leadership I expect there will be political cruelty, both against politicians and even by them. I hope not but experience tells me turmoil and tensions are the most likely to be the political forecast for Alberta's political climate for the foreseeable future.

It does not have to be that way but unless Stelmach becomes, or is allowed (?) to become the Stelmach that I know, it is not going to be easy or pretty in Alberta politics - not for quite some time. The next election is 3 years away.

Prime Minister Harper - Just Visiting!

This is such a clever presention of some truth about Stephen Harper and his relations to the United States. He doesn't accomplish anything in improving Canada - US relations. He just visits, and visits and visits. Harper is off to Washington again...very soon...for another visit...too true to from.

He wants us to think he is aligned with President Obama on Climate Change. He is not.

He wants us to think he has the best interests of Alberta's oilsands at heart. He does not.

He is just visiting the United States - all the time.

(h/t @DanWoy on Twitter)

Energy Industry Rant on Alberta Royalties Wearing Thin

Here is a comment I put on Don Braid's column today in the Calgary Herald. First read Don's column then continue with reading this comment:


The old ways of doing politics by the Calgary Commandos under Klein is gone and these guys don't know how to respond...so they blame the royalties as it if were a made-in-Alberta NEP.

The market is what is making things tough in the patch, not the Alberta taxpayer's take from OUR energy resources. We share the risk with lower rates in tough times and take more of the pie when things are good.

We were still the second lowest tax and royalty burden on the planet AFTER the new royalty regime was initially. Premier Stelmach has rolled royalty rates back so far, as an appeasement to the Calgary Commandos, that we now collect less revenue from these NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES than we would have generated from the original royalty scheme. Cry me a river!

Get off this royalty rant you guys; Albertans are sooner or later going to start acting like owners of their oil and gas reserves. When the do, then your social licenses will all come under serious public scrutiny. Your environmental records will be the first place the public will look to see if your enterprise is behaving appropriately to deserve a continuing social license. You are tenants on these public lands who are granted license to take a calculated business risk - not to play politics with the privilege.

You are welcome to go to Libya or Iran or Iraq or Nigeria instead of staying in Canada. And Saskatchewan is not the alternative; they are a different game with the Bakken. Their win with this great discovery is not Alberta's loss; it is win-win for Canada. That again is your independent business decision but the political games about royalties are becoming tedious. You have it really good and you know it.

I would really like to know how Albertans think about the royalties we collect on our natural resources and how the licensees who exploit them for us treat our land, air and water in the process.

Looking forward to your comments.

Harper Promises Other Parties to "Teach Them a Lesson" Next Election

Mr Harper says he is going to show the separatist and the socialists and teach them a lesson. Kind of like "you just wait until your father comes home Canada. There are going to be consequences if you don't give him a majority next election.

Harper and the strict and abusive father-figure is at his best in the Sault Ste Marie speech.

http://davidakin.blogware.com/blog/_archives/2009/9/10/4316574.html

I always thought elections were the chance for citizens to teach abusive and arrogant politicians a lesson! Not in world of Harper's-Your-Daddy-and-you-better-obey-him-politics.

"Not Been Spending Enough of Your Money"

Here is an hilarious piece of creative political mockery for your cynical amusement. I came across this mock-ad by Edward Monton on Twitter (follow me @kenchapman46). It pokes fun at the $25 million Alberta branding advertising campaign and the Alberta budget plight. The text reads"

"There was never a better time for Alberta to waste $25 million of taxpayers money. The Tory government under Ed Stelmach is doing a wonderful job of running the Province from a surplus into a deficit. Let's forget about health care funding, the crumbling infrastructure and education to throw valuable funds into the creation of a new logo. We will also create ads like this that are uninspiring and refuse to break stereotypes. With that in mind, better let this fellow get back to polishing the metal nuts dangling from the back of his Chevy truck."

The logo cut line is "Alberta Freedom to Spend, Spirit to Waste"

OUCH! But this is the role of the artist, to tell us about ourselves. Good on you Edward Monton.

That said, Alberta's revenues are down due to commodity prices and royalty give aways and subsidy to industry in the good times. Cuts are here and more are coming. I hope we see some intelligence, integrity and compassion applied to the next budget building in Alberta.

We have not seen much evidence of anything happening to improve Alberta's brand image recently. Copenhagen is coming up in December, First Nations are getting European bank backing to fight energy issues and the oil sands investments by Statoil are an election issue in Norway these days, and China is getting serious about buying in. Alberta is on the world stage alright. There is a lot of angry and anxious people these days, and who can blame them.

I have been working on a blog post for the next in the series "Society's Child" but have been distracted by real work I have to do. I will be getting at it again shortly and will be posting about some pf the implications of the Bosco Homes closure for those kids and what will happen to them.

I will also be looking at some positive examples of where social workers in the children's services area. The examples I will use illustrate some exemplary work done on behalf of kids at risk, where the social workers have really showed up and stepped up. Stay tuned.