Daveberta and the Enlightened Savage have political insight and wisdom way beyond their young age.
This latest post by Daveberta on the Wildrose Alliance Party implications for politics and governance in Alberta is a quintessential example of what I mean.
http://daveberta.blogspot.com/2009/10/wake-up-call-for-alberta.html
Thanks for the great post Dave.
Monday, October 19, 2009
Alberta's Political Eyes Now Turn to PC Leadership Confidence Vote
I had a great conversation with Katherine O'Neill of the Globe and Mail yesterday on the Wildrose Alliance Party leadership and the pending Alberta Progressive Conservative Party Annual General Meeting leadership confidence vote for Premier Stelmach coming up November 7th. Here is the link to the story in today's Globe and Mail.
I think the Alberta political media attention will shift now to the PC AGM leadership confidence vote but with the Danielle Smith WAP leadership lurking in the background. The speculation will be rampant but pointless. What is on the minds of the delegates and what do they see and the confidence vote "ballot question" is the real issue.
There is a growing amount of grumbling in the PC rank and file these days. It may be that I attract the griping because I speak out about political and governance concerns on this blog. The big tent for fiscal conservatives and social progressives is wearing thin on both counts. Walking away for $2B in royalties for no good reason other than to appease the Calgary based energy executive suites and at the same time to be calling for the same $2B in program cuts in the coming fiscal year captures the essence of why both elements in the PC Party are dissatisfied.
The Premier's political response to the embarrassing third place finish in the Calgary Glenmore by election was restricted to blaming the results on the bad economy and the rapidly expanded government program spending. That presumption that the Stelmach government is not fiscally right-wing enough ignores the growing lack of confidence in the governance and leadership capacity of the current regime. It also ignores the revenue problem caused by politically motivated giveaways and concessions to the energy sector with no positive economic upside for the provincial treasury and the Premier painting himself in a corner with a hasty announcement about not increasing taxes on his watch.
Now the cost-cutting strategy is to give token claw backs of the massive recent Cabinet pay increases as if that would provide some moral high ground to go to public sector workers to induce them to walk away from legally binding mutually agreed to collective bargaining agreements. The not-for-profit community based service sector agencies doing the government's work in the volatile and vulnerable areas like seniors, children's service and the developmentally disabled are being penalized even more than the union based public sector workers.
Passing up non-renewable resource revenues in the face of market based commodity prices and putting the burden for that giveaway on the middle class and most vulnerable in our society is not good politics and even poorer governance.
Will this message come through loud and clear at the pending confidence vote at the November PC AGM? My betting is not at all. Even with all this crashing down on the shoulders of the provincial government and the downloading of the burden on municipalities, schools, hospitals, universities, community based not-for profit social service agencies, it will all be stifled and not talked about openly at the AGM.
The first rule of old-school politics is to get re-elected and the next election is a long way off in political time. There is a lot of water to go under the political bridge before Premier Stelmach has to face the people. The "people" in the PC party know this. The only thing that could cause Stelmach to face the citizens of Alberta earlier would be a low confidence vote in the party leader and Premier by the party faithful. That would trigger a PC leadership contest and with the party policy of one-membership one-vote process Albertans could destabilize the entire PC party tradition and structure.
The PC party faithful will stay "faithful" on November 7th if not to the leader at least to the PC brand. To do anything else will only hurt the party, the province and destabilize provincial politics by unnecessarily increasing the already considerable instability and uncertainty of being Albertan.
I think the Alberta political media attention will shift now to the PC AGM leadership confidence vote but with the Danielle Smith WAP leadership lurking in the background. The speculation will be rampant but pointless. What is on the minds of the delegates and what do they see and the confidence vote "ballot question" is the real issue.
There is a growing amount of grumbling in the PC rank and file these days. It may be that I attract the griping because I speak out about political and governance concerns on this blog. The big tent for fiscal conservatives and social progressives is wearing thin on both counts. Walking away for $2B in royalties for no good reason other than to appease the Calgary based energy executive suites and at the same time to be calling for the same $2B in program cuts in the coming fiscal year captures the essence of why both elements in the PC Party are dissatisfied.
The Premier's political response to the embarrassing third place finish in the Calgary Glenmore by election was restricted to blaming the results on the bad economy and the rapidly expanded government program spending. That presumption that the Stelmach government is not fiscally right-wing enough ignores the growing lack of confidence in the governance and leadership capacity of the current regime. It also ignores the revenue problem caused by politically motivated giveaways and concessions to the energy sector with no positive economic upside for the provincial treasury and the Premier painting himself in a corner with a hasty announcement about not increasing taxes on his watch.
Now the cost-cutting strategy is to give token claw backs of the massive recent Cabinet pay increases as if that would provide some moral high ground to go to public sector workers to induce them to walk away from legally binding mutually agreed to collective bargaining agreements. The not-for-profit community based service sector agencies doing the government's work in the volatile and vulnerable areas like seniors, children's service and the developmentally disabled are being penalized even more than the union based public sector workers.
Passing up non-renewable resource revenues in the face of market based commodity prices and putting the burden for that giveaway on the middle class and most vulnerable in our society is not good politics and even poorer governance.
Will this message come through loud and clear at the pending confidence vote at the November PC AGM? My betting is not at all. Even with all this crashing down on the shoulders of the provincial government and the downloading of the burden on municipalities, schools, hospitals, universities, community based not-for profit social service agencies, it will all be stifled and not talked about openly at the AGM.
The first rule of old-school politics is to get re-elected and the next election is a long way off in political time. There is a lot of water to go under the political bridge before Premier Stelmach has to face the people. The "people" in the PC party know this. The only thing that could cause Stelmach to face the citizens of Alberta earlier would be a low confidence vote in the party leader and Premier by the party faithful. That would trigger a PC leadership contest and with the party policy of one-membership one-vote process Albertans could destabilize the entire PC party tradition and structure.
The PC party faithful will stay "faithful" on November 7th if not to the leader at least to the PC brand. To do anything else will only hurt the party, the province and destabilize provincial politics by unnecessarily increasing the already considerable instability and uncertainty of being Albertan.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Smith Wins Wildrose Leadership: Now What?
I had the opportunity to meet and talk with over 100 Wildrose Alliance Party members yesterday at their Leadership Convention in Edmonton. I was asked by the WAP Executive Director to do a presentation on social media, a subject that stirs my political passions. As an unrepentant Red Tory I wondered if the WAP (and I) knew what we were getting into but it was a very enjoyable event for me and the feedback on Twitter and face-to-face makes me believe the feeling was mutual.
The leadership campaign of Danielle Smith took over 75% of the membership support, a very conclusive result for sure. Congratulations are in order and I have to admire any citizen, regardless of stripe, who offers their time and talent as a political candidate in the service of the greater public good. The media was all over this party leadership, partly because of the strong showing in the Calgary Glenmore by election and the dismal third place shellacking the Stelmach PC’s endured.
The December 2008 Alberta Liberal leadership got minimal media coverage by comparison but the times were very different then. The melting Alberta economy was in full flight as the recession cum depression and commodity price collapse dominated the headlines. The WAP did not have the same media headline competition and in fact became the political story for a month or so before the leadership convention.
The leadership campaign voter and party membership numbers from both of these contests are underwhelming. In both the Liberal and WAP contest only about 71% of the members bothered to show up to vote. Does that mean 30% of those Albertans who paid for the party membership did so just to get the party membership seller off their back? Likely!
The Liberals only sold 6258 party membership for their leadership contest and 4599 of them bothered to vote. The WAP sold just over 11,600 party memberships and 8296 of them bothered to vote. The new leader of the WAP, Danielle Smith took over 75% of the voter turnout with 6295 ballots. One needs to put 6300 party supporters in perspective. Consider that in the 2008 Alberta election 37 winners in individual constituencies had more supporters than Smith did based on the entire province.
The WAP today is a long way from any reality as an alternative to the power of the Progressive Conservative support. The WAP knows that but the next election is 3 years away, coincidentally the same time Premier Stelmach recently predicted in his TV fireside speech that provincial surpluses would return.
One other very interesting implication from the WAP leadership was the party’s reluctance and tactical maneuvering to avoid disclosing the vote results. The pre-count concession by the very socially conservative candidate Mark Dyrholm was used as an excuse to avoid disclosing the vote results. They eventually unenthusiastically released the count. In fact as I write this, almost 24 hours later, the vote count is still not on the WAP website, just linked to the blog post of the Executive Director.
For the record, Smith got 6295 votes and Dyrholm got 1905 votes. This is a dramatic rejection of the anti-abortion, anti-homosexual, patriarchal, family-values political agenda of the far right base of the party mergers that became the Wildrose Alliance. Interestingly Dyrholm in a province-wide leadership campaign got fewer votes than Craig Chandler did in his third place finish the 2008 election in Calgary Egmont. OUCH!
This leadership rejection result will not sit well with the traditionalist base of the new WAP and I can’t see them going away quietly. Appeasement of socially conservative political agenda will be one of Smith’s first and toughest challenges as the WAP goes about the Province the hammer out a policy platform. There is already a WAP platform on their website that induced over 11000 Albertans to join up. What does Smith want to see changed, why and to what?
So now the WAP is a new party, with a new seat and a new leader. I think we need some hardnosed political perspective on the implications of this new party. I encourage every Albertan who is concerned about the future of this province to read the WAP policy platform and to reflect upon how it aligns with their values. If you agree, get on board with the WAP. If you disagree, you have a more complex set of political participation questions to consider.
What if the PC's send Premier Stelmach a harsh political message at the November 7th party leadership review? That will that trigger more dramatic consequences for Alberta than what happened at the WAP leadership tussle yesterday. Time for Albertans to get ready for any one of a range of possible scenarios coming out of that crucial vote. What the PC party says to Premier Stelmach then will promise to have a serious impact on all of us right now. That political conversation will be happening mostly on Twitter at #PCAGM so sign up and tune in.
The leadership campaign of Danielle Smith took over 75% of the membership support, a very conclusive result for sure. Congratulations are in order and I have to admire any citizen, regardless of stripe, who offers their time and talent as a political candidate in the service of the greater public good. The media was all over this party leadership, partly because of the strong showing in the Calgary Glenmore by election and the dismal third place shellacking the Stelmach PC’s endured.
The December 2008 Alberta Liberal leadership got minimal media coverage by comparison but the times were very different then. The melting Alberta economy was in full flight as the recession cum depression and commodity price collapse dominated the headlines. The WAP did not have the same media headline competition and in fact became the political story for a month or so before the leadership convention.
The leadership campaign voter and party membership numbers from both of these contests are underwhelming. In both the Liberal and WAP contest only about 71% of the members bothered to show up to vote. Does that mean 30% of those Albertans who paid for the party membership did so just to get the party membership seller off their back? Likely!
The Liberals only sold 6258 party membership for their leadership contest and 4599 of them bothered to vote. The WAP sold just over 11,600 party memberships and 8296 of them bothered to vote. The new leader of the WAP, Danielle Smith took over 75% of the voter turnout with 6295 ballots. One needs to put 6300 party supporters in perspective. Consider that in the 2008 Alberta election 37 winners in individual constituencies had more supporters than Smith did based on the entire province.
The WAP today is a long way from any reality as an alternative to the power of the Progressive Conservative support. The WAP knows that but the next election is 3 years away, coincidentally the same time Premier Stelmach recently predicted in his TV fireside speech that provincial surpluses would return.
One other very interesting implication from the WAP leadership was the party’s reluctance and tactical maneuvering to avoid disclosing the vote results. The pre-count concession by the very socially conservative candidate Mark Dyrholm was used as an excuse to avoid disclosing the vote results. They eventually unenthusiastically released the count. In fact as I write this, almost 24 hours later, the vote count is still not on the WAP website, just linked to the blog post of the Executive Director.
For the record, Smith got 6295 votes and Dyrholm got 1905 votes. This is a dramatic rejection of the anti-abortion, anti-homosexual, patriarchal, family-values political agenda of the far right base of the party mergers that became the Wildrose Alliance. Interestingly Dyrholm in a province-wide leadership campaign got fewer votes than Craig Chandler did in his third place finish the 2008 election in Calgary Egmont. OUCH!
This leadership rejection result will not sit well with the traditionalist base of the new WAP and I can’t see them going away quietly. Appeasement of socially conservative political agenda will be one of Smith’s first and toughest challenges as the WAP goes about the Province the hammer out a policy platform. There is already a WAP platform on their website that induced over 11000 Albertans to join up. What does Smith want to see changed, why and to what?
So now the WAP is a new party, with a new seat and a new leader. I think we need some hardnosed political perspective on the implications of this new party. I encourage every Albertan who is concerned about the future of this province to read the WAP policy platform and to reflect upon how it aligns with their values. If you agree, get on board with the WAP. If you disagree, you have a more complex set of political participation questions to consider.
What if the PC's send Premier Stelmach a harsh political message at the November 7th party leadership review? That will that trigger more dramatic consequences for Alberta than what happened at the WAP leadership tussle yesterday. Time for Albertans to get ready for any one of a range of possible scenarios coming out of that crucial vote. What the PC party says to Premier Stelmach then will promise to have a serious impact on all of us right now. That political conversation will be happening mostly on Twitter at #PCAGM so sign up and tune in.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Harper Cons Put Party Logo on a "Ceremonial" Federal Government Grant Cheque
This is not governing - it is just cheap political gamesmanship. Harper government putting a PC logo on a federal government cheque is not proper. Can we ever come to trust these guys to do what is best for Canada and not just politrical power. Sure it was a "ceremonial" grant cheque because the real thing would never be allowed by the administration.
Come Mr. Prime Minister, these are tough times. Think about us as a country as you go about the nation spending borrowed money that future generations will have to repay for years. This is not just your public relations stunt platform, it is about the viability and ability of the country to survive the worst recession in 70 years.
Who in their right minds can trust this bunch when they constantly pull such stupid and insipid pranks?
Come Mr. Prime Minister, these are tough times. Think about us as a country as you go about the nation spending borrowed money that future generations will have to repay for years. This is not just your public relations stunt platform, it is about the viability and ability of the country to survive the worst recession in 70 years.
Who in their right minds can trust this bunch when they constantly pull such stupid and insipid pranks?
Obama and the Problematic Prize
My friend David Kilgour published this piece in the Washington Post last week. I picked it up on The Mark News site, where I contribute a thought or two on occasion.
David does a short and precise analysis of the context surrounding President Obama's winning of the Nobel Peace Prize. He questions the the wisdom of the award and even more so, its acceptance.
Obama has done a great job of undoing much of the hate and harm inherent in the former Bush administration. His commitment to a bi-partisan solution to issues like healthcare reform have mistakenly assumed a rational Republican response. Criticism of Obama's policy accomplishments after only 9 months in office are premature at best.
Repubicans are stuck in the adversarial model of politics. The don't want the best policy or even a good policy, they only want to win the political argument about the policy. The power Obama holds in control of the White House, the Senate and the House. This will soon result in President Obama exerting some pure political muscle to make things happen.
Coddling conservatives for consensus is past. President Obama can silence his critics by flexing his political power to serve the purposes for which he was elected in the first place.
David does a short and precise analysis of the context surrounding President Obama's winning of the Nobel Peace Prize. He questions the the wisdom of the award and even more so, its acceptance.
Obama has done a great job of undoing much of the hate and harm inherent in the former Bush administration. His commitment to a bi-partisan solution to issues like healthcare reform have mistakenly assumed a rational Republican response. Criticism of Obama's policy accomplishments after only 9 months in office are premature at best.
Repubicans are stuck in the adversarial model of politics. The don't want the best policy or even a good policy, they only want to win the political argument about the policy. The power Obama holds in control of the White House, the Senate and the House. This will soon result in President Obama exerting some pure political muscle to make things happen.
Coddling conservatives for consensus is past. President Obama can silence his critics by flexing his political power to serve the purposes for which he was elected in the first place.
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