Who Can Albertans Trust to Tell the Truth About Their Oil Sands?

Interesting columns and commentary around the ENGOs, industry and government efforts to influence public opinion around oil sands development.  Our recent values based research along with some ordinary opinion polling is feeding the conversation.

The manic messaging is becoming more important to the self interests of the various combatants rather than any fidelity to the facts in the public interest.  The public is at a loss of who to believe and what to believe about the reality of oil sands development with all the over heated hype coming from the various camps.

The credibility of all the players in this puffed up PR game is eroding rapidly.  The game being played around the oil sands is not focused on the facts and helping Albertans as the owners of the oil sands to be more informed, aware, interested and engaged on the issues and seeking solutions.  It is more about special interests being more concerned with protecting institutional reputations as opposed to doing the real work on the ground to fix the problems first.

Who Can We Trust?
Who is the everyday Albertan supposed to believe and trust anymore?  This is not a superficial question for government and industry and even activist environmental groups.  They of these self-interests all depend on the public trust and confidence to be able to do their work and to do their jobs, presuming that is to serve the public interest.  That is the key foundational question that is emerging in the minds of many Albertans. Who is representing the public interest and who are we to believe when all we see are stunts, glossy advertising and questionable content and selective information presented as facts.  Where is the adult conversation happening about the complexity, opportunity and responsibility around oil sands development?

The media, including pundits, commentators and bloggers, are also subject to suspicion.  We are as much part of the problem as anyone else. Where is the wider lens we need to better deal with the complexity of the oil sands from an integrated economic, environmental, social, and public policy approach.  Where is the wisdom we need to actually properly and responsibly develop the oil sands on a rational, integrated and long term trustworthy perspective?

What Do Albertans Value?
We have recently done another conjoint survey on values research on what values Albertans want politicians and policy makers to apply when making public policy and political decisions that impact our lives.  It is apparent that Albertans do not feel they are getting these values addressed these days.  The most important attributes for government to make decisions from everyday Albertans were Accountability, Integrity, Fiscal Responsibility, Honesty and Transparency.

If these are the most important public policy values of Albertans then anyone trying to influence opinions or resonate with our hearts and minds better be sure to demonstrate in actions - not just words - that they are authentically meeting these higher standards of behaviour that citizens expect.

What I see happening now is an attitude or political autism that is all spin and PR.  The combatants seem to be unable to read the social cues of their audiences.  As a result Albertans will dismiss for a number of reasons, including suspicion over motives that are seen as exploitative and naive self-interest, a lack of competence and judgment, a lack of respect for other points of view, ideology being more important than creating informed opinion and a default to hostility towards opponents instead of being helpful to the public interest.

We All Know Oil Sands Are Important
There are 89% of Albertans who see the oil sands as a very or extremely important element in our future prosperity.  Anyone in government or industry who fails to address this in a broader, integrated and more authentic context than we are seeing now is risking political power and their business investment.

There is a serious and growing credibility gap in what is being said to citizens, what citizens consider important and perceptions about what is actually happening in the areas of concern.  This is a recipe for disaster and extremes.  There are major gaps between existing legal and policy frameworks and actual delivery of results.  There even bigger gaps between aspirations and perceptions of reality and actual performance in many areas of concern to Albertans around oil sands development.  I call these differences "The Big Betrayal Factor" once citizens see the disconnect between what they believe to be happening and what is actually going on in their name around oil sands development. 

It is just as likely that Albertans will turn off and tune out of politics and public policy processes even more because they are so angry and resentful of the conventional way things are done.  The other possibility is there will be an electoral revolution where Albertans will say they have had enough and throw out all the conventional power hungry types for something entirely different.  One thing for sure we can't continue in the status quo and hope to realize our potential as a province and as a people.  Change, Change  Change it what I hope for.

Alberta Makes World News with 1600 Dead Ducks, New York to Cull 170,000 Birds Goes Unnoticed.

New York State is thinking of culling 170,000 Canada Geese from the estimated state goose population of 250,000.    News reports say this is "five times the amount that most people would find socially acceptable."

This is apparently a "one-of-a-kind plan" according to media reports and part of a large Canada Goose cull of about 500,000 birds in 17 Atlantic states.  It is alleged that some state plans "do not include all the scientific background."  The New York plan is to capture the geese, crate them, transport them to a "secure location" to be euthanized and buried.

Critics are saying it is not clear that there are really five times as many Canada gees as there should be and calling the plan "a little extreme."  DUH!

The motivation for this cull seems to be a result of the Hudson river crash landing in January 2009 when geese flew into the engines of the jet.  This is hardly a fool proof solution since another bird killing spree near New York La Guardia is reported to have reduced birds hitting airplanes by 80%.  Hardly a reassuring statistic that says air traffic is safe enough die to bird kills.  We don't know how big the La Guardia bird problem was, how big the cull was and what metrics were used to determine success.  Not very helpful really

I sure do not condone the proven negligence of Syncrude in the loss of 1600 ducks in their tailings ponds two years ago but it pales in comparison to what New York state is proposing to do intentionally, not negligently.
We know from our research going back to 2005 that one of the dominant and consistent values preferences for Albertans in resource development is wildlife habitat protection.

Resource development is not the same as urban airline safety but the respect for biodiversity and for our species becoming more integrated in the natural balance and flow of nature is a major human value that is becoming a  more important public policy issue.  As a result New York should be looking for a more humane, integrated and adaptive approach to bird control around airports rather that euthanizing 170,000 birds of inconvenience.

Albertans Want a More Comprehensive & Integrated Approach to Oil Sands Development

The narrative being promoted about the oil sands is not enough of the story to gain the public confidence.  Here is the news release from the Government of Alberta indicating the emphasis they will take to the other provincial Premier's in meetings in Winnipeg this week.   

This message is like water is to soup.  Essential but insufficient.  I say that as a result of a recent conjoint study on values associated with responsible and sustainable development by Albertans on their oil sands.

Albertans overwhelmingly (89%) recognize the importance of the oil sands in term of economic prosperity.  I expect people in other provinces, like Newfoundland especially, feel much the same way about the economic importance of the oil sands.  So talking up the oil sand contribution to Canada's GDP, the job creating and the secure source of North American continental energy supply is important it is not the entire message that Albertans (and others ?) want to hear.

According to our study Albertans also want to know what is happening around reclamation, wildlife habitat protection efforts and what is being done about ecological monitoring of oil sands development.  They are concerned about CO2 and greenhouse gases as well as water usage in oil sands development.  What is government and industry doing in these areas are just as vital to Albertans as the pure economic elements when they consider oil sands development.

The oil sands debate, such as it is, is polarized where government and industry seem to avoid talking about the stewardship duties of oil sands development and hard line environmentalists do the same by overlooking the economic and energy security aspects of this vital resource.  This is just not helpful in the long run for anyone, and the public confidence in particular.

I think the public is smarter than that and is longing for an adult conversation about the oil sands.  Question is how much more is the public losing confidence in government, industry and ENGOs to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth on oil sands development?  Albertans clearly want their oil sands resources developed and to benefit from the wealth and opportunity they create.  Albertans are even more concerned these days that the development is being done with the highest levels of stewardship possible.  We want to benefit and be proud of how our oil sands are development.  Those are not mutually exclusive aspirations of the people of Alberta.

What Do Albertans Expect as Owners of the Oil Sands?

There is a PR and spin battle going on for the hearts and minds of the public over oil sands.  The battle is between the Government of Alberta the oil sands industry and some segments of the ENGOs (Environmental Non-government Organizations.)

The prime targets are Albertans, Canadians, businesses outside of Alberta who benefit from oil sand development and key American politicians who are fixated on a “dirty oil” message around the oil sands. The tactics being used to various degrees by all contestants are paid advertising and PR spin. 

We see the ENGO tactic of Corporate Ethics International paying for bill board advertising in a four select US cities calling for a “Rethink” of traveling to Alberta due to our so-called “dirty oil.”  There were some significant factual errors about the size of oil sands mining operation in the Corporate Ethics messages. It became a game of “he said - she said” generating more heat than light about the reality of the oil sands.

But there are other media motivated manoeuvres being employed by ENGOs.   Just yesterday Greenpeace performed another one of its publicity stunt and will get a bunch of media coverage as a result.  They hung a banner from the iconic Calgary Tower and message was “Separate Oil and State.”  Two protester wearing Premier Stelmach and Prime Minister Harper facemasks were chained to oil barrels with “Dirty Oil” written on them.  Eight of these Greenpeace protesters were arrested and that will give the story some legs in the media.

We see the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers running magazine and television ads using real people involved in oil sands technology, research and reclamation in an attempt to get an authentic human connection to the industry efforts to justify their social license to operate.

The Stelmach government is launching another quarter million dollar newspaper advertising push to “tell the world about the oil sands.”  Early indications are these ads are aimed at Albertans and Canadians and if that is the case that is hardly “telling the world.”  The recent rejection of a Letter to the Editor by Premier Stelmach to a Washington DC newspaper resulted in the purchase of a half page ad in that paper to run the letter as a way to get the message out to key US politicians.  Last time the Alberta government launched a paid advertising campaign on the oil sands it earmarked $25 million dollars glossy advertisements.  There was also some misleading in the content and context discovered in the campaign and it was quietly abandoned.

That is all by way of background for what I really want to talk.  If you want to connect with the hearts and minds of the public you should try to find out want is on their minds and in their hearts first.  Then you should talk to the public about oil sands matters that concern them.  There is a need for a conversation between government and industry about the responsible and sustainable development of the oil sands.  After all it is Albertan’s who own the oil sands.  

But are paid advertising campaigns anything close to a “conversation” with the public.  The paid advertising approach is often seen as self-serving one-way messages to the public.   There is a place for paid advertising in communications.  But in complex matters like oil sands development advertising alone is no substitute for substantial, authentic, accurate, clear and resonant conversations with the public.

So what is it about oil sands development that the Alberta public is concerned about?  What information do they want?  What do they believe ought to be the values used by decision makers as their oil sands are being developed?  How confident are they in the decision makers in government and industry about oil sands development?  At Cambridge Strategies we have designed and deployed a random sample survey with 1032 Albertans to get at what is on their minds and in their hearts about oil sands development. 

I will be doing more blog posts on this in the future but for now I want to delve a bit deeper into a survey finding that was reported in the Edmonton Journal today under the headline “Many Albertans Onside with Gov’t Handling of the Oilsands.”  It is very difficult to take a statistic and isolate it from the larger context and write a meaningful headline that also grabs attention.  So I will temper my criticism because while the headline is accurate I am not sure it really captures all the implications and essence of the findings.  That requires a bit more reflection and interpretation. 

There were some survey questions that were attitudinal and not part of the value choice questions in the conjoint study.  So they are more like opinion polling questions and relate to a moment in time only.  The value choice conjoint questions on what Albertans believe should guide and drive policy decisions on oil sands development are a more reliable source of what people want and expect over time for oil sands development.

Here is a more comprehensive look at how “onside” Albertans are with the government handling of the oil sands.  

The question asked was:  “The Alberta government is responsibly managing the oilsands.”  The response was:

•                 Completely Agree                                           6%         
•                 Agree                                                            25%
•                 Slightly Agree                                                 34%
•                 Slightly Disagree                                             17%
•                 Disagree                                                         13%
•                 Completely Disagree                                         5%

While there are more Albertans who agree (31%) than disagree (18%) with how their government is managing the oil sands there is a more interesting and significant factor in this answer.  Look at the mushy middle opinion.  Over half of Albertans slightly agree or slightly disagree with this statement.  These people are fluid and more undecided in their opinions.  If they move in one direction or another, that will have enormous impact on our attitudes as owners of the oilsands.  It will have consequences for politics, elections and social licenses for industry to operate in the oil sands – which is a public property.

What is it that would make Albertans in the middle group move one direction or another?  If the hearts and minds of 51% of Albertans are up for grabs what would influence them to shift one way or another about how they feel their government is doing in terms of responsible management of the oil sands.  This is not a minor issue because the survey also found that 89% of Albertans believe the oil sands are either Extremely Important (47%) or Very Important (42%) to Alberta’s prosperity.

Another serious influence on this question is how much confidence Albertans currently have in the political leaders and parties who must make public policy about what constitutes responsible and sustainable oil sands development.  That result is also in the Edmonton Journal story but it needs to be more directly related to the first question.  Again this must be looked at in terms or a possible trend. 

The question was: “Who do you trust the most to responsibly manage Alberta’s growth.”  Premier Ed Stelmach of the Progressive Conservative Party was at 23%, Danielle Smith of the Wildrose Alliance was 19%.  David Swann of the Liberals was 9% and Brian Mason of the NDP came in at 4%.  The largest segment was None of the Above at 45%.   This indicates some potential for change in Alberta politics but there is not viable political alternative in the minds of most Albertans these days.

There is great deal more opinion related results in the survey and they are published at the Edmonton Journal Notebook Blog too.  It is important to review them all and consider the implications as whole and not just individual questions.

                 

Change is Not Easy But Committing Makes It So!

On the other blog I write called RebootAlberta I did a post citizen empowerment as a consequences of individual commitment to a cause, issue or concern.  Once someone makes a commitment then things start to really happen.  I found a great quote by Goethe to make the point.

I expect we will see people going into and coming out of Reboot 3.0 with a clearer sense of what needs to be done in Alberta for us to become the best we can for the world and why that is worthy of our efforts.

Progressives found in Reboot 1.0 that they were not alone. There are many of us.  In fact we are looking at the Reboot Values random survey and seeing how many of those folks align significantly with the Reboot progressive value set.  It will be a rough approximation of the size of the progressive population in Alberta.

In Reboot 2.0 we discerned and researched who we are and what we considered as important values as progressives in Alberta. That research is discussed in this blog post http://ken-chapman.blogspot.com/2010/06/alberta-progressive-values-align-well.html and in the context of the priority of the values held by the Reboot community and everyday Albertans.

In Reboot 3.0 there is a sense of some need for focused action on what is of importance to progressives in Alberta.  We will be designing the event to let people select what they want to talk about, what they see as winnable issues and what it will take to embed progressive values in the Alberta political culture going forward.