The announcement yesterday of former Alberta Liberal moving from Independent and becoming the first MLA of the revived and revised Alberta Party drew lots of interesting reaction in MSM and social media. Some on Twitter called up a blog post I did over a year ago when two Conservatives bolted directly to the Alliance last January.
Fair game but I felt there was a slight misrepresentation of what I was suggesting and seeking input from readers on floor crossing at that time...but that is for others to judge. Here is a link to the January 2, 2010 post for you to consider. Here is the central question I was asking about voter motivation in election:
When citizens cast ballots it is unclear if they are voting for a party, a candidate, a leader, a platform, an issue of just name recognition or any combination of these motivations. Do we elect politicians to exercise their best judgement or to reflect the majority opinion of their constiuents or perhaps some other controversial but perhaps more "enlightened" position on an issue?
So I pose the same questions again but this time as "A burning question!" You can let your thoughts be known in the comments to this blog and on the Burning Question on the right hand side too.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Blog Polls Are Crap!
I have recently returned to posting "Blog Polls" every week on this site. I have had some reluctance in doing it because they are not really scientific polls. It is really misleading to call them polls because it implies that they are random and science based. They are nothing of the sort. I have had some Tweets from folks I respect who have called these "blog polls" crap and I agree...especially if they are represented or understood to be science based random and reliable polls.
WHY BLOG AND MEDIA "POLLS" ARE CRAP
I know the main stream media including major newspapers, radio stations and television websites often to the same misleading techniques as "blog polls." That hardly justifies the activity and does nothing to absolve the misleading label of "poll." These mainstream media "polls" are not scientific or reliable either. Like those on blogs they are at best a relatively unreliable representation of what some readers might think. We have no idea of the nature and composition of the readership or the respondents in either case.
These "polls" can even be hijacked by groups who what to create an impression of reality that is also misleading by pushing one group or another to flood the "poll" with answers that serves their preferences or purposes. The recent question of who should hold the balance of power if we have a minority Alberta government is perhaps an example of a push by a group to influence results. I don't know but have suspicions. Many of my readers are Alberta Party members and many more are Alberta Party curious so it is no surprise that this new party is the dominant choice. I note a key strategist of the Alberta NDP recently criticized my blog polls Twitter and all of a sudden there is a surge in NDP support for holding the balance of power. I think this is an example of starting the conversation so long as people see that the survey results are only useful for that purpose and not conclusive of anything.
This is just a signal to readers to use their critical thinking skills and read these surveys like they would horoscopes. Treat them with the same degree of authenticity. These so-called "polls" are to random sampling opinion surveys as Dr. Phil is to psychology...infotainment at worst and conversation starters at best.
SCIENCE BASED POLLING UNDER PRESSURE TOO
Opinion polling as a science has come under serious credibility pressures recently too. This is because the tried and true techniques used in the past to generate a random representative sampling has reliability problems with the rise of cell phones as virtually the exclusive connectivity link of a younger generation and the difficulty to connect to them skews the data. The move towards self-selecting volunteers to register with pollsters who allegedly represent a demographic or a region is suspect too because the more indifferent or disengaged opinions are not likely to be canvasses. Then we have caller ID that allows people to filter out unwanted calls or unknown callers. That again undermines true randomness. Then we have the fact that as many as 20 calls have to be made before someone will take the call and invest the time to respond to a phone survey. How randomly representative is the data collected with that kind of randomness? There are "solutions" but they are not perfect either. But that is another issue for another post some other time.
DOES HARPER HATE EVIDENCE MORE THAN LIBERALS?
With the Harper government destroying the Canada Census we will not longer have a randomly selected scientifically reliable source of crucial information on Canadians after 2006. The ignorance of that policy decision will ensure that public policy design in the future will be a crap shoot that will inevitably result in crap public policy. I believe that is the ultimate political goal here. The fundamentalist anti-intellectual underpinnings of the Reform roots of the Harper government want to design failure into government so it can be replaced by Darwinian market forces in all cases. I mention this to show that even quality scientific polling is being undermined by a political ideology that says it is OK for faith to trump facts. Evidence is tough to rebut so the Reformatory Harper government passes policy to ensure we don't have facts in the first place. That is even more dangerous to democracy than silly unscientific "blog polls."
IT'S ABOUT STARTING THE CONVERSATIONS
I think the questions posed in a "blog poll" will only be conversation starters in and amongst the readers of that blog in comments, social media and off-line IRL (in real life). There is no reliable value to be attributed to the responses and folks have to know that. I will continue to put questions to my readers for response but I will not call them "Blog Polls" any more. I will call them "Burning Questions" from now. I hope these Burning Questions continue to serve the purpose to engage citizens in the political culture of our times. I hope they trigger real conversations in communities, between friends and amongst co-workers and even within families to help focus attention on the political issues and public policy concerns that are shaping our times.
If that is the case, I believe they are worth keeping. If you have a Burning Question you want me to pose, email it to me.
WHY BLOG AND MEDIA "POLLS" ARE CRAP
I know the main stream media including major newspapers, radio stations and television websites often to the same misleading techniques as "blog polls." That hardly justifies the activity and does nothing to absolve the misleading label of "poll." These mainstream media "polls" are not scientific or reliable either. Like those on blogs they are at best a relatively unreliable representation of what some readers might think. We have no idea of the nature and composition of the readership or the respondents in either case.
These "polls" can even be hijacked by groups who what to create an impression of reality that is also misleading by pushing one group or another to flood the "poll" with answers that serves their preferences or purposes. The recent question of who should hold the balance of power if we have a minority Alberta government is perhaps an example of a push by a group to influence results. I don't know but have suspicions. Many of my readers are Alberta Party members and many more are Alberta Party curious so it is no surprise that this new party is the dominant choice. I note a key strategist of the Alberta NDP recently criticized my blog polls Twitter and all of a sudden there is a surge in NDP support for holding the balance of power. I think this is an example of starting the conversation so long as people see that the survey results are only useful for that purpose and not conclusive of anything.
This is just a signal to readers to use their critical thinking skills and read these surveys like they would horoscopes. Treat them with the same degree of authenticity. These so-called "polls" are to random sampling opinion surveys as Dr. Phil is to psychology...infotainment at worst and conversation starters at best.
SCIENCE BASED POLLING UNDER PRESSURE TOO
Opinion polling as a science has come under serious credibility pressures recently too. This is because the tried and true techniques used in the past to generate a random representative sampling has reliability problems with the rise of cell phones as virtually the exclusive connectivity link of a younger generation and the difficulty to connect to them skews the data. The move towards self-selecting volunteers to register with pollsters who allegedly represent a demographic or a region is suspect too because the more indifferent or disengaged opinions are not likely to be canvasses. Then we have caller ID that allows people to filter out unwanted calls or unknown callers. That again undermines true randomness. Then we have the fact that as many as 20 calls have to be made before someone will take the call and invest the time to respond to a phone survey. How randomly representative is the data collected with that kind of randomness? There are "solutions" but they are not perfect either. But that is another issue for another post some other time.
DOES HARPER HATE EVIDENCE MORE THAN LIBERALS?
With the Harper government destroying the Canada Census we will not longer have a randomly selected scientifically reliable source of crucial information on Canadians after 2006. The ignorance of that policy decision will ensure that public policy design in the future will be a crap shoot that will inevitably result in crap public policy. I believe that is the ultimate political goal here. The fundamentalist anti-intellectual underpinnings of the Reform roots of the Harper government want to design failure into government so it can be replaced by Darwinian market forces in all cases. I mention this to show that even quality scientific polling is being undermined by a political ideology that says it is OK for faith to trump facts. Evidence is tough to rebut so the Reformatory Harper government passes policy to ensure we don't have facts in the first place. That is even more dangerous to democracy than silly unscientific "blog polls."
IT'S ABOUT STARTING THE CONVERSATIONS
I think the questions posed in a "blog poll" will only be conversation starters in and amongst the readers of that blog in comments, social media and off-line IRL (in real life). There is no reliable value to be attributed to the responses and folks have to know that. I will continue to put questions to my readers for response but I will not call them "Blog Polls" any more. I will call them "Burning Questions" from now. I hope these Burning Questions continue to serve the purpose to engage citizens in the political culture of our times. I hope they trigger real conversations in communities, between friends and amongst co-workers and even within families to help focus attention on the political issues and public policy concerns that are shaping our times.
If that is the case, I believe they are worth keeping. If you have a Burning Question you want me to pose, email it to me.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Where Has the Integrity Gone?
I have been trying to find the time to do a blog post on the Annual Report of Alberta's Privacy Commissioner, Frank Work. Making a living keeps getting in the way. However, Graham Thomson had covered the salient points in his Edmonton Journal column today. It is worth a read.
My political concern is the general decline in good governance in Alberta. We know from random sample research that the dominant values Albertans want to see drive and guide public policy in our province are integrity, accountability, transparency, honesty along with environmental stewardship with fiscal and personal responsibility.
With the continuing decline of the Alberta to respond to Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy that aligns with these values is becomes apparent that citizens have to one of two things. Either we make the current government change to align with those values or we change to a new government that will align with those values. We have a political culture that values spin over substance and loutishness over values.
The Thomson column provides a strong example that explains the propaganda tactics that has become the staple diet of modern politics. The recent rehash of reheated rhetoric by Dr. Ted Morton that Alberta is being ripped off by the federal government because we pay more taxes to Ottawa than services in return is pure political propaganda at its apogee.
We pay more federal tax money than others in Canada BECAUSE we make more money than anyone else in Canada. The sense that Confederation is we versus them relationship the right wing in Alberta always trots out when it is in trouble in the polls or wants to precipitate an election is not good government and really bad politics.
If we can't assume political integrity in our government, we citizens can at least keep them honest. We do that by calling them on transparency and accountability breaches and telling them loud and clear that things better change in government or we citizens will change the government next election. The status quo is not good enough. Anyone who thinks counterclockwise and wants to turn Alberta back in time is not a viable alternative either. Time for some thinking for a change.
My political concern is the general decline in good governance in Alberta. We know from random sample research that the dominant values Albertans want to see drive and guide public policy in our province are integrity, accountability, transparency, honesty along with environmental stewardship with fiscal and personal responsibility.
With the continuing decline of the Alberta to respond to Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy that aligns with these values is becomes apparent that citizens have to one of two things. Either we make the current government change to align with those values or we change to a new government that will align with those values. We have a political culture that values spin over substance and loutishness over values.
The Thomson column provides a strong example that explains the propaganda tactics that has become the staple diet of modern politics. The recent rehash of reheated rhetoric by Dr. Ted Morton that Alberta is being ripped off by the federal government because we pay more taxes to Ottawa than services in return is pure political propaganda at its apogee.
We pay more federal tax money than others in Canada BECAUSE we make more money than anyone else in Canada. The sense that Confederation is we versus them relationship the right wing in Alberta always trots out when it is in trouble in the polls or wants to precipitate an election is not good government and really bad politics.
If we can't assume political integrity in our government, we citizens can at least keep them honest. We do that by calling them on transparency and accountability breaches and telling them loud and clear that things better change in government or we citizens will change the government next election. The status quo is not good enough. Anyone who thinks counterclockwise and wants to turn Alberta back in time is not a viable alternative either. Time for some thinking for a change.
The Politics of Fear and Propaganda Pervade
We all have to improve our media literacy. The Internet demands it because the traditional "authoritative voices" of professional journalism in mainstream media have all but disappeared. The old media model of delivering eyeballs and ears is falling apart in a fragmented audience that is getting used to free content on the Internet.
Reliable news sources are being lost in the noise and sensation of places like Fox News as they reach for ratings by pushing adrenaline inducing infotainment instead responsible professional journalism and informed in depth commentary. We will soon have the same kind of propaganda promoting media experience with the unleashing of Fox News North.
In American politics the vitriol and anger gets even worse, but Canada is not far behind as Harper continues to use Karl Rove wedge issues in ways the divide people and pander to fear. The political culture is beyond a conventional adversarial debate of artificial black and white issue framing that is over-simplified spin and pushed by sound bites and pithy print quotes through a compliant media.
Now the political culture is approaching fascism in some circles and with some politicians. The spin is escalating beyond persuasion into misleading half truths and outright lies - repeated over and over for effect. There is a cynical truism about this kind of pathetic political "communications." That reality is that a lie heard seven times becomes a truth to many people. In our hyper-connected and constantly "on" world we are voluntary victims of the consequences of perpetual partial attention. We don't read, reflect and try to understand content - especially on-line content that is becoming the dominant news source for most of us.. We merely scan and skim content for impressions and that has the effect of suspending our disbelief and diminishes our capacity for critical thinking. We end up with more information but become less informed.
The other disturbing trend in our political culture is the use of intimidation, coercion, bullying and innuendo by those in power against public servants and public service organizations, agencies and community based volunteer boards. Even duly elected municipal politicians and school boards are wary of bringing truth to power for fear of personal and institutional retribution from government. We become quietly complacent and compliant and avoid using our voice for fear of "consequences."
So as an introductory lesson in media and political literacy here is an "educational" video allegedly about and from the Liberal Party in Australia. It is a public service ad that every citizen needs to see, reflect on and remember as you get inundated with the Harper Conservative Party negative attack ads on other politicians.
(H/T to Daveberta for the link.)
Reliable news sources are being lost in the noise and sensation of places like Fox News as they reach for ratings by pushing adrenaline inducing infotainment instead responsible professional journalism and informed in depth commentary. We will soon have the same kind of propaganda promoting media experience with the unleashing of Fox News North.
In American politics the vitriol and anger gets even worse, but Canada is not far behind as Harper continues to use Karl Rove wedge issues in ways the divide people and pander to fear. The political culture is beyond a conventional adversarial debate of artificial black and white issue framing that is over-simplified spin and pushed by sound bites and pithy print quotes through a compliant media.
Now the political culture is approaching fascism in some circles and with some politicians. The spin is escalating beyond persuasion into misleading half truths and outright lies - repeated over and over for effect. There is a cynical truism about this kind of pathetic political "communications." That reality is that a lie heard seven times becomes a truth to many people. In our hyper-connected and constantly "on" world we are voluntary victims of the consequences of perpetual partial attention. We don't read, reflect and try to understand content - especially on-line content that is becoming the dominant news source for most of us.. We merely scan and skim content for impressions and that has the effect of suspending our disbelief and diminishes our capacity for critical thinking. We end up with more information but become less informed.
The other disturbing trend in our political culture is the use of intimidation, coercion, bullying and innuendo by those in power against public servants and public service organizations, agencies and community based volunteer boards. Even duly elected municipal politicians and school boards are wary of bringing truth to power for fear of personal and institutional retribution from government. We become quietly complacent and compliant and avoid using our voice for fear of "consequences."
So as an introductory lesson in media and political literacy here is an "educational" video allegedly about and from the Liberal Party in Australia. It is a public service ad that every citizen needs to see, reflect on and remember as you get inundated with the Harper Conservative Party negative attack ads on other politicians.
(H/T to Daveberta for the link.)
Obama Support Rising
There is a new poll of 1000 Americans for the Wall Street Journal and NBC News saying 53% of Americans approve of Obama's performance as President. Too bad voters were not thinking that way in the November mid-term elections.
He is up 8% since December and his disapproval rating is down 7% to 41%. According t reports on the poll, Independents have not felt this good about Obama since August 2009. The other side (the dark side?) the GOP Republicans are not doing so well. 25% of Americans say they will bring the wrong kind of change to Washington and 55% said the Republicans are too inflexible in dealing with Obama. Conversely 55% said they trust - yes TRUST - Obama to strike the right balance with his opponents. Looks like Palin, Limbaugh and Beck have over played their hands? Here's hoping.
AMERICAN PROGRESSIVES WAKING UP?
Looks like Progressive in the United States have woken up to the fact that showing up, voting and winning is not enough. You have to continue to be an informed, engaged and active citizen if you want intelligent evidence-informed public policy. To stay aloof means you will be ruled by extremist ideological zealots. The President can't do it all by himself.
ARE ALBERTA PROGRESSIVES WAKING UP?
There are lessons here for progressive thinking Canadians, and even progressive thinking Albertans voting federally and provincially. Stop the fundamentalist and extremists from all stripes can ruin the country, the province and destroy a free and open society. Apathy used to be Boring. Now it is dangerous to democracy too. Alberta is waking up to this fact. Will Alberta show up in the next election to change the direction and co-create the Next Alberta?
He is up 8% since December and his disapproval rating is down 7% to 41%. According t reports on the poll, Independents have not felt this good about Obama since August 2009. The other side (the dark side?) the GOP Republicans are not doing so well. 25% of Americans say they will bring the wrong kind of change to Washington and 55% said the Republicans are too inflexible in dealing with Obama. Conversely 55% said they trust - yes TRUST - Obama to strike the right balance with his opponents. Looks like Palin, Limbaugh and Beck have over played their hands? Here's hoping.
AMERICAN PROGRESSIVES WAKING UP?
Looks like Progressive in the United States have woken up to the fact that showing up, voting and winning is not enough. You have to continue to be an informed, engaged and active citizen if you want intelligent evidence-informed public policy. To stay aloof means you will be ruled by extremist ideological zealots. The President can't do it all by himself.
ARE ALBERTA PROGRESSIVES WAKING UP?
There are lessons here for progressive thinking Canadians, and even progressive thinking Albertans voting federally and provincially. Stop the fundamentalist and extremists from all stripes can ruin the country, the province and destroy a free and open society. Apathy used to be Boring. Now it is dangerous to democracy too. Alberta is waking up to this fact. Will Alberta show up in the next election to change the direction and co-create the Next Alberta?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)