The personality issues are interesting gossip but the subtleties are where you will find the real substance of these Cabinet changes. Stephen Harper sharpens his focus, fixes some problems and I believe he enhances his Cabinet’s capacity too.
My guess is he is trying to delay the inevitable election from this spring to the fall with this shift in focus and this significant shuffle. He needs to buy some time to show he can govern affirmatively and not just be an alternative to the old Liberal regime.
The recent Liberal leadership change to Dion has seen public move beyond the angst and anger at the old Liberals. Change is in the air but who represent change is undecided given recent poll results with the Libs and Cons in a dead heat.
This desire to delay a federal election gives Charest elbow room to go to the polls in Quebec first with the support of a favourable Harper Budget. The polls are not positive for any party right now and too close to call. Harper wants some time to bring up the Cons numbers to where he can feel comfortable going into an election. There is not a clear consensus from the polls that the public wants an earlier election either and the opposition parties are all far from ready.
The shuffle give a sharper governance focus with Rona Ambrose in Intergovernmental Affairs and responsibility for the Western Economic Diversification. The MSM will harp on where she came “from” but the real story is where she is “going.”
This is a very smart strategic move by the Prime Minister as it speaks to the Ambrose strengths and takes advantage of her political credibility, especially in Alberta. Lots of fed-prov complexity looming and a need for real relationship building here. Ambrose will be good at it and will thrive in this new role.
Baird in Environment will get in trouble quickly if he keeps his pit bull approach to politics especially with the sophisticated ENGOs and the industry sectors. If he makes some significant serious changes quickly that are more closely aligned with the values and concerns of Canadians he will be one of the most effective Harper Ministers. If the Clean Air Act culture of hype and hyperbole ("smog and mirrors")persists with no serious political engagement, then Baird will be the new Ambrose. Expect his courage, capability, influence and adaptability to be tested very quickly.
Nicholson in Justice and Toews out will not be reassuring to the religious right and the future of their social conservative policy agenda. It signals that Harper does not want a focus on social conservative issues so expect Nicholson to put a lid on it until after the next election. Toews in Treasury Board tells me the new Budget and planning for 2007 is virtually a done deal by Baird already. Toews will likely be a caretaker on a short leash from the Prime Minister who is going to be the only real power in Treasury Board going forward.
The sleeper issue is the new focus on Seniors with another Senator appointed to Cabinet. With Marjory LeBreton’s appointment we can expect some serious new attention to this neglected sector of Harper's former Alliance/Reform base. The fear is that these folks are significantly disenchanted with the Harper government and could stayh home next election. This mean we can expect some tax reforms and program goodies in the pending Budget to overcome the perception of political neglect and the impact of the Income Trust decision on these fixed income seniors.
Keeping Prentice in place is the smartest “move” overall in this shuffle. I was right about Prentice in an earlier post but wrong on Rajotte being called to “the show.” Glad about the former, sad about the latter.
The rest is more like deck chair changes of no real consequence but it is good to see more women in and the smart politics of more Quebec involvement too. Not all of the problems have been fixed, like Defence and Heritage where there are some very hot buttons pending on procurement processes. The mean spirited recent Heritage social program cuts will come home to roost with political consequences too.
The overarching open question still is has the PM learn to share authority and responsibility or is he still going be the THE government and the de facto Minister of Everything!
Thursday, January 04, 2007
Wednesday, January 03, 2007
Alberta's Economy is "Moderating."
The Alberta marketplace looks like it is starting to adjust to the new realities of labour shortages “…once again the most limiting factor affecting business activity” according to the Alberta Treasury Branch’s “Business Sentiments Index.” Anticipation for the first Quarter of 2007 shows Alberta business still expects strong growth with an Index rating of 140.2 but not at the levels of the last Quarter of 2006 when the Index had a record 163.1 Index rating.
Construction prices are still expected to rise and that makes for some interesting challenges for the Stelmach government who are committed to closing the public infrastructure gap caused by years of neglect.
Hiring intentions are down slightly in all sectors except the Professional and Technical Services which remained steady between the end of 2006 and the beginning of 2007. Business activity in this sector is still expected to grow significanly next year so planning and design for new projects is continuing, building them is moderating.
Oil and Gas, Manufacturing and Construction anticipation for early 2007 is for a moderated business growth but still remaining relatively strong. We can see this reflected in a number of major project second phases that are being delayed. The new recently approved oil sands megaprojects like Suncor Voyageur and Shell Albion are still going full steam ahead and will be corralling the available skilled workforce.
Our research at Cambridge Strategies indicates that managing growth is one of the top public policy issues facing the Stelmach government. Smart governments are appropriately hesitant to interfere in the marketplace. Based on this ATB data, it looks like they will not need to intervene. The market itself is starting to moderate Alberta’s growth in the face of unrealistic project costs and the lack of skilled labour is doing it already.
Now will costs reduce too? Not anticipated in the ATB data, in fact the sentiment is they will continue to escalate but for how long...that is the $100 Billion Dollar (Plus)question. Maybe the Second Quarter ATB Business Sentiments Index will tell us more. I will let you know.
Construction prices are still expected to rise and that makes for some interesting challenges for the Stelmach government who are committed to closing the public infrastructure gap caused by years of neglect.
Hiring intentions are down slightly in all sectors except the Professional and Technical Services which remained steady between the end of 2006 and the beginning of 2007. Business activity in this sector is still expected to grow significanly next year so planning and design for new projects is continuing, building them is moderating.
Oil and Gas, Manufacturing and Construction anticipation for early 2007 is for a moderated business growth but still remaining relatively strong. We can see this reflected in a number of major project second phases that are being delayed. The new recently approved oil sands megaprojects like Suncor Voyageur and Shell Albion are still going full steam ahead and will be corralling the available skilled workforce.
Our research at Cambridge Strategies indicates that managing growth is one of the top public policy issues facing the Stelmach government. Smart governments are appropriately hesitant to interfere in the marketplace. Based on this ATB data, it looks like they will not need to intervene. The market itself is starting to moderate Alberta’s growth in the face of unrealistic project costs and the lack of skilled labour is doing it already.
Now will costs reduce too? Not anticipated in the ATB data, in fact the sentiment is they will continue to escalate but for how long...that is the $100 Billion Dollar (Plus)question. Maybe the Second Quarter ATB Business Sentiments Index will tell us more. I will let you know.
Canada - We Have a Horse Race.
Now that the media hype is off the Liberal Leadership contest and the post convention polling “bump” is past. The open question was, and still is to some degree, who is Stephane Dion and what is he all about? The polls showed that he has some benefit of the doubt as a potential leader but there was a significant amount of “Don’t know” like 24% in the post convention days. Those people could go either way over time.
The Cons have been able to garner attention as of late with the MSM coverage of the “pending Cabinet Shuffle” and the Libs have gone a bit quiet at the same time. That said there is a new Decima poll out today in the Toronto Star with some interesting and more realistic results because the field work was done between Christmas and New Years with 1012 participants.
The Cons and Libs are in a “dead heat” according to the headline because the standings are 34% and 31% respectively, which is within the 3.1% margin of error.
The breakdown tables are not yet on the Decima website because the story is the Canadian Press “exclusive.” The reported shifts are important with the Cons at 14% behind the Libs with 27% in Quebec where the Bloc reigns at 41%. Dion is not the pariah to Quebecers the Cons hoped he would be and so much of the MSM predicted.
The Cons at 35% are behind the Libs at 40% in Ontario too. The story notes the rebound of the Cons in the west and speculates they have overcome “the negative fallout” from the broken promise over Income Trusts. That was some of the best policy and political work the Harper Cons have done this year. It took courage and character to do the right thing and besides the markets overall have more that recovered the “Halloween Hit” for the Income Trust decision.
The demographic differences are striking. The Cons are supported by men and rural voters while the Libs are preferred by females and urbanites. Both parties have to broaden their reach and appeal without jeopardizing their base. The credibility of such efforts will be the key. Anyone can make policy announcements that attract the attention of a broader demographic. Can they do it authentically and with credibility? That is the trick.
For some more context, an Ipsos Reid poll last May pegged the Cons at 43% (down 9 points today) Libs at 25% (up 6 points) NDP still steady at 15% the Bloc with 9% (up 1 today) and the Greens at 5% (up 3points today). The sands between the Cons and Libs are shifting as they are between the NDP and the Greens.
Will the Harper shuffle get his team back on the up side or will it give him “a dead cat bounce” like the stock market…a short unsustainable up tick!
The Cons have been able to garner attention as of late with the MSM coverage of the “pending Cabinet Shuffle” and the Libs have gone a bit quiet at the same time. That said there is a new Decima poll out today in the Toronto Star with some interesting and more realistic results because the field work was done between Christmas and New Years with 1012 participants.
The Cons and Libs are in a “dead heat” according to the headline because the standings are 34% and 31% respectively, which is within the 3.1% margin of error.
The breakdown tables are not yet on the Decima website because the story is the Canadian Press “exclusive.” The reported shifts are important with the Cons at 14% behind the Libs with 27% in Quebec where the Bloc reigns at 41%. Dion is not the pariah to Quebecers the Cons hoped he would be and so much of the MSM predicted.
The Cons at 35% are behind the Libs at 40% in Ontario too. The story notes the rebound of the Cons in the west and speculates they have overcome “the negative fallout” from the broken promise over Income Trusts. That was some of the best policy and political work the Harper Cons have done this year. It took courage and character to do the right thing and besides the markets overall have more that recovered the “Halloween Hit” for the Income Trust decision.
The demographic differences are striking. The Cons are supported by men and rural voters while the Libs are preferred by females and urbanites. Both parties have to broaden their reach and appeal without jeopardizing their base. The credibility of such efforts will be the key. Anyone can make policy announcements that attract the attention of a broader demographic. Can they do it authentically and with credibility? That is the trick.
For some more context, an Ipsos Reid poll last May pegged the Cons at 43% (down 9 points today) Libs at 25% (up 6 points) NDP still steady at 15% the Bloc with 9% (up 1 today) and the Greens at 5% (up 3points today). The sands between the Cons and Libs are shifting as they are between the NDP and the Greens.
Will the Harper shuffle get his team back on the up side or will it give him “a dead cat bounce” like the stock market…a short unsustainable up tick!
Tuesday, January 02, 2007
James Rajotte for Cabinet!
If there is a Harper Cabinet shuffle in the works, and it looks imminent, I hope the PM adds James Rajotte to his Cabinet. This is a quiet steady and very loyal guy with some real abilities whose praises are too often left unsung.
Having a Minister actually from Edmonton will bolster Harper’s support in this city in the pending election too. An Ambrose, Bernier shuffle would leave the Industry portfolio open for a man of Rajotte’s calibre.
Prentice is already ensconced deeply in the day to day details of the operations of the government and has some real passion for the work he has started in the Indian Affairs portfolio. He needs a move like a hole in the head. Bernier in Environment would make a lot of sense and Quebec would sure notice. The Cons needs to elevate their game in the environment, especially in Quebec.
The Van Loon bench warming in Intergovernmental Affairs due to the Michael Chong resignation over the Quebec Nation tactic could come to an end easily and no one would notice. The relative merits between and Rajotte and a Van Loon in the Cabinet weigh heavily in favour of the former on talent, experience and loyalty to the Leader.
I’m pulling for James!
Monday, January 01, 2007
Garth Turner and Michael Chong - Men of Principle in Politics
To some politics is a blood sport. It is rough and tumble and too often very hurtful and unduly personal a la Belinda Stronach.
To others, it is how you respond to slights and matters of principle. Take Michael Chong who resigned the Harper Cabinet over the Quebec Nation. He was, after all, Harper's Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs and he was not consulted by the Prime Minister before it was announced as Harper government policy.
Slighted? For sure he was. But that something one can deal with and get over. He resigned on a much more significnat principle because he fundamentally disagreed with the Harper concept of Quebec as a "nation." At Chong's new conference announcing his resignation before the Commons vote he said:
We need more politicians of principle and character like Mr. Chong. He is a perfect example of just how damaging centralizing power at PMO can be. He is an exemplar of why we elect authentic people of character and competence...at least on occasion.
Garth Turner did not quit the Harper government. He was ousted from the Conservative Caucus and stripped of his party membership and forbidden to run as a CPC candidate. He also voted against the Harper Quebec nation motion but that was not all he was being punished for, at least for far as we have been led to believe.
Garth Turner has posted some very personal commentary on his past year as an MP in his Blog. It also shows the character and conviction of an individual politician. Here is another independent, intelligent thinker who has a real respect for representative democracy. He clearly understands the import and impact of when citizens elected him they were granting Turner their individual and aggregated consent to be governed. Those were foundational precepts of the breakway Reform and Alliance Parties and are now ignored as CPC political power gets centralized in the Harper PMO.
Turner has vowed to run again. Not in any spirit of spite or revenge. He has higher reasons. Visit his Blog and see what he has to say and let him (and me) know what you think of his comments. He is worthy of respect and support, especially for his integrity.
To others, it is how you respond to slights and matters of principle. Take Michael Chong who resigned the Harper Cabinet over the Quebec Nation. He was, after all, Harper's Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs and he was not consulted by the Prime Minister before it was announced as Harper government policy.
Slighted? For sure he was. But that something one can deal with and get over. He resigned on a much more significnat principle because he fundamentally disagreed with the Harper concept of Quebec as a "nation." At Chong's new conference announcing his resignation before the Commons vote he said:
“I believe in this great country of ours, and I believe in one nation undivided, called Canada….This is a fundamental principle for me, and not something I can, or will, compromise -- not now, not ever. While I'm loyal to my party and to my leader, my first loyalty is to my country."
We need more politicians of principle and character like Mr. Chong. He is a perfect example of just how damaging centralizing power at PMO can be. He is an exemplar of why we elect authentic people of character and competence...at least on occasion.
Garth Turner did not quit the Harper government. He was ousted from the Conservative Caucus and stripped of his party membership and forbidden to run as a CPC candidate. He also voted against the Harper Quebec nation motion but that was not all he was being punished for, at least for far as we have been led to believe.
Garth Turner has posted some very personal commentary on his past year as an MP in his Blog. It also shows the character and conviction of an individual politician. Here is another independent, intelligent thinker who has a real respect for representative democracy. He clearly understands the import and impact of when citizens elected him they were granting Turner their individual and aggregated consent to be governed. Those were foundational precepts of the breakway Reform and Alliance Parties and are now ignored as CPC political power gets centralized in the Harper PMO.
Turner has vowed to run again. Not in any spirit of spite or revenge. He has higher reasons. Visit his Blog and see what he has to say and let him (and me) know what you think of his comments. He is worthy of respect and support, especially for his integrity.
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