Voter Apathy and a Perfect Storm for Alberta Politics

Here is what voter indifference can do to the future of Alberta. We are already deeply into election mode and it will be apparent after New Years. Unless our provincial political agenda changes, we can anticipate a continuation of voter apathy. This is due to the disconnect between modern machine politics and the concerns of real people who are leading real lives and facing real issues.

What if politics does not change and the cynicism and scepticism continue as the dominant political response? Well I don’t have a worst possible partisan political scenario because that really depends on your point of view and your party affiliation.

I do however have a sense of consequences of lost and bungled opportunities for the province as well as the potential for some serious political mistakes to be made…by anyone and everyone in the running.

I think citizen indifference and voter apathy is the biggest threat to mature democracies. Apathy and indifference is not only the fault of the citizens. The political system has to take much of the blame. For those fans of proportional representation, stifle yourselves. It is not a cure…it is more likely to add complications to the affliction and erode the necessary capacity for effective on-going governing.

Here is what I think can happen as a consequence of citizen apathy and voter indifference. It is entirely possible we could end up with new leadership races in the PC, Alberta Liberals and the NDP in 2008. If that were to happen we would have squandered the opportunity for meaningful change and will set Alberta on a course of least 2 more years of drift and dissonance.

Here is my armchair quarterbacking that drives Alberta to that result. There is a PC repeat and amplification of the 2004 and the recent Calgary by election phenomenon. The far right goes to the Alliance and other marginal parties weakening the rural stronghold of the PCs. They are spread thinly and make no real electoral inroads.

The progressives stay home in disgust or show up in anger and send a message to the powers that be by parking their ballots with the Greens. Why the Greens? It is perceived as a safe parking place because it does not help the Liberals directly and sends a strong message to the PCs that the policy agenda is dated. Women and youth who do show up will be angry as well and go to the Greens too. This will be a protest vote about the relevance and priorities of the public policy agenda and mainline party platforms.

The consequence is a PC minority government. That means the knives are going to be out for Stelmach for obvious reasons. The Alberta Liberals will benefit from more seats but they are also going to be after Taft’s head too. Because he would be seen as unsuccessful and ineffective in going for the kill and gaining the political power he ought to have realized in the face of an "obviously weakened" PC party.

The Greens don’t even have to elect anyone to be seen as winners. They get a big bump in popular vote and due to protests, anger and ballot parking they rival or perhaps even surpass the NDP popular vote. That will strike fear in the hearts of the Alberta NDP and been seen across the country as a foreshadowing of what may happen to the Dippers in the forthcoming federal election too. Brian Mason’s leadership also gets challenged as a result.

A PC minority government in March of 2008 will likely results in three political party leadership campaigns by late 2008. Who knows what the outcomes of those exercises will be? One thing for sure is if this happens any semblance of real governing will be suspended for at least another year. A lack of governing focus and capacity could roll over well into 2010 and beyond as another election will undoubtedly happen sooner than later.

Uncertainty then becomes the new normal in Alberta. Not a good thing and nothing we are very used to. Frankly I don't see this happening if the political parties, particularly the PCs, get their acts together and become relevant to the lives of Albertans again.

One thing for sure though, even without this perfect storm scenario, Alberta politics are guaranteed to be interesting for the first time in a long time.

Bhutto Assassination and Shades of JFK's Death

Watching CNN this morning on the Bhutto assassination I get an eerie déjà vu from the JFK assassination. Is Rawalpindi the new Dallas in the Global Village? Is there a metaphorical grassy knoll in the park where she was speaking? Will conspiracy theories dominate the cultural interpretation of this tragedy?

The official Pakistan government information from the Interior Ministry is Bhutto dies by hitting her head on the vehicle she was travelling in. It was not the bullet(s) that we were originally told entered her neck and exiting on the other side of her skull. Nor did the suicide bomber’s shrapnel cause or contribute to her death even though it killed about 20 bystanders. “Nothing entered her head” according to government security officials and we are expected to take that “fact” at face value.

The security people are seen as immediately hosing down the site of the disaster and destroying valuable evidence in the process. She is taken to the local hospital and doctors who apparently attended to her give us sound bite diagnoses of her demise and are talking about cardiac arrest as a cause of death. There is no autopsy and Bhutto is buried in less than 24 hours. Hmmm!

We get accusations of the Pakistan intelligence agency being behind the death as well as al-Qaeda and other Islamic fundamentalists’ cells and even agents of Musharraf himself are under suspicion as being behind the assassination.

The conspiracy theories have already started and the facts are becoming irrelevant to the interpretation of the implications of this assassination. The 24 hour worldwide news cycle will show pictures and video tht will be repeated interminably. MSM will be offering little by way of insight or any commitment to confirm the accuracy of the information or analysis on implication and interpretation. Maybe the key and notworthy exception to the MSM circus will by the BBC.

Constant vigilance and striving for the truth is the responsibility of citizenship and a price of freedom in democracies. We all must cast a critical and jaundiced eye at what we are being shown and told about what happened, who did it and who is responsible.

Calgary Egmont PC Nomination Update

Looks like there is now someone who is closer to a real progressive conservative who is in the running for the PC nomination in Calgary Egmont.

Check out Don Middleton. A teacher prepared to enter politics….that has to be seen as a positive contribution to the process of getting quality people to govern us. Good on ya Don and best of luck in the nomination.

Time to beef up that website Don – it is a tad skimpy on details on who you are and what you stand for.

Wake Up Alberta and Get Ready for a February Election Call

The darkening clouds of an American recession and the presumed pending elections in Alberta and Canada means we cynical citizens have to take our heads out of the sand and start to look seriously about how we want to be governed and by whom.

Our dollar parity and the greed machine stupidity of the now world-side Us inspired sub prime mortgage fiasco, the US housing market mess, yet another BSE animal, more US soft wood protectionism and the approaching American Primaries adds to the "fun." Inflation is taking hold in Alberta and the cost of living is gettign out of control, especially for newcomers, to the point where more people are now leaving Alberta than coming here. It all helps to create a miasma of economic uncertainty going into election times.

I will spend the weeks leading up to an election focusing this blog, in part, on some of the big picture the issues and policy concerns of Albertans as we ponder the forthcoming election(s). The lack of any plan or the lack of believing we even needed one during the last half of the Klein regime has left Alberta with some seriously complicated and significantly critical issues to handle.

Commodity prices are high except for natural gas and that is masking some other economic concerns like the consequences of high costs, labour shortages, inflation, affordable housing and social services breakdowns just to name a few. I have not even touched on the environmental concerns which is becoming the new #1 issue for Alberta.

All this complexity demands experienced, effective, nimble and adaptive political and business leadership. We need more focused and activist leadership to jump into these issues and with the ability to design some comprehensive plans for serious long term solutions. Then the leadership must have the ability to focus and execute those plans.

There is not much time left for citizens of Alberta to get serious about deciding what they want changed in their government and governors. Elections are all about change and my best guess is we can expect an Alberta election writ in February. I have three date ranges in mind as to when I think that election call will happen. Feb 6 or 7 is very likely because they are the days immediately after the Throne Speech.

This is a defining opportunity for Stelmach to show once and for all he is no Klein clone. He has already effectively distanced himself from Ralph on a number of significant policy issues. The Throne Speech will be a winner if it aligns and resonates with the hopes of Albertans and helps show how we can fulfill the providence of this province. It must also addresses the fears of Albertans, and there are fears out there.

Next likely election call timing is Feb 12 or 13 which is just before the scheduled Valentines Day Budget Speech. If we get an election call instead of a Budget Speech then we can expect the “budget” to be official PC party policy and rolled out in the election campaign. This will reinforce Premier Stelmach as his own man and with a real plan and a realistic focus for the future. This pre- budget election call has happened many times before. It is not a new idea and one that may happen again.

Finally, if they let Oberg read the Budget Speech and table the Budget the rules require a certain number of days of debate. Then the writ would be dropped likely during the week of Feb 25. My instincts tell me Stelmach would like the election to be over before Easter which comes early this year, March 23 to be exact. That is why this late date post Budget timing is the least likely election call by my speculations.

So that means early or mid February election call. Putting Christmas aside, that leaves 4-6 weeks for Albertans to get their heads around what kind of government they want going forward and who they will entrust to lead us. In the meantime we have the chance to let our politicians know what we expect by way of a preferred future. I recommend direct citizen action by personal political lobbying and an aggressive citizen's action pre-campaign communications plan aimed directly at all Alberta politicians of all stripes.

So get busy Alberta and fill up the the politicians mail boxes, email in-boxes, radio call-ins and Letters to the Editors in January. Let the powers that be, and those who aspire to power, know your ideas and demands for a better Alberta. Many Alberta are coming into this election disinterested, distrusting and disgusted with how our province (and our country) has been run as of late, especially in the later days of the Klein regime and the second year of the Harper government. Cynicism, skepticism and passive hoping is not a method for effective change.

I smell democracy in the air and a desire for change. That is a potent combination that usually means change is coming. The big question is does Progressive Conservative Ed Stelmach, Alberta Liberal Kevin Taft, NDP Brian Mason or Green George Reid represents the kind of change we want and which one will best meet the future forward needs of Alberta? Albertans will be answering that question very shortly as we go to the polls with an election starting well before February is over.

Romantic Comedies - Dubya's Antidote to American Angst

Please tell me this is part spoof and part "truthiness" but the context sure fits our man Steve’s sense of his friend Dubya to a “T” (not Mr. T).

When the third largest US federal department is Homeland Security and that was accomplished in a mere 6 years you have to laugh and cry at this item. What can you say if and when the leader of the free world would see a return to better romantic comdies as a solution to American angst.

Gotta love The Onion!