Can Alberta Conservatives Win in 2019 and Deny Climate Change?

Abacus Data has a new on-line survey of 1534 Canadians randomly selected from a panel of 500,000 Canadians.  They weighted the responses to "match census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada's population" demographics.

Not sure that weighting is reliable or even possible.  The Harper government killed the long form census so we likely don't have a reliable base line to weigh against.  Harper did not want reliable statistical evidence  contradict or undermine his political agenda.

Prime Minister Trudeau's first policy move after being elected was to return the long form census so it may be possible that Abacus Data has those results to "weigh" against.  Are the results using this methodology truly representative of Canadian opinion and values?  I don't know but I have a serious suspicion of on-line panel responses.  Are they anything more than allegedly random samples using questionable sources where certain responses are weighted to induce or deem a representative sample?

That said, lets take a look at what the survey purports to discover in the context of what political policy should be on climate change if a political party wants to be reflective of the will of citizens and victorious at election time.

Abacus says that back in the day "...politicians who chose to be early champions of action to reduce emissions were running a certain amount of political risk."  Carbon emission consequences were not fully formed in the public consciousness.  However, "Today in Canada, the risk equation has changed. the bigger political peril lie in appearing indifferent to a matter of widespread and growing public perception."

If this survey is accurate half of Canadian voters (49%) won't even consider a party or a candidate that doesn't have a plan to combat climate change.   Only 6% prefer a party or a candidate that ignores the issue.

If ignoring the issue of climate change is the same as denying it exists then are Conservatives, including those in Alberta, in trouble next election?  Yup, but only if climate change is an election is a significant enough issue in the minds of voters.  Consider this survey finding.  "The rest (44%) are 'willing to consider' a party that doesn't make the climate a priority."

Abacus' analysis on the 44% says "For Canada's conservative parties and candidates, an optimistic read of these numbers is that the Conservatives cold win without an ambitious plan given that half of the population don't consider this policy a pre-requisite for their support."  They go one to warn Conservatives that ignoring the climate change issues would be "tying on hand behind their backs, leaving them no room for error."

Environmentalism has changed in Canada and is now a "moderate" concern for 78% of Canadians.  Only 11% see themselves as "ardent" environmentalists and another 11% are indifferent.  There are 68% of us how attribute climate change to human and industrial causes, 21% say its just natural phenomenon and 2% are climate change deniers.

Obviously one way to defeat the KenneyCons (a.k.a. the UCP) in Alberta is to elevate climate change action into a ballot box issue.  How might that happen?  Well we need to be sure the voting public understands and appreciates the consequences of inaction or inept half-hearted action on climate change.

That may already be the case given the Abacus survey found 85% of us said "...taking no action on climate change will be severe, very severe, or catastrophic across a wide range of areas..." including agriculture, human health and insurance access, taxpayer costs of rebuilding after disasters to name a few.  The momentum is for action so says 63% versus 37% who want" to do little or nothing" about climate change.

Here's the kicker for inert Conservatives on climate change.  There is an enormous moral responsibility as 91% say taking action on climate change is a duty to future generations.  While 47% believe the damage is already done, we are past the tipping point and there is "...little chance we could  stop climate change at this point."  Contrast that with 87% who feel there is "already lots of evidence we can cut emissions when we try."  And, get this shift, 79% believe "...combating climate change will open up economic opportunities."

So the old-line HarperCons climate change denier stance is no longer tenable as sound political platform.  The environment is not perceived as a trade-off with the economy nor is it a barrier to growth, in fact is is a catalyst for growth, responsible sustainable growth and a competitive advantage. 

Will the KenneyCon UCP base in Alberta, that now is really the same old HarperCon fundamentalist  social conservative crowd, accept this shift in public perception and deny being deniers?  Will a UCP shift to rhetoric on responsible sustainable economic development that stewards the environment be credible to Alberta progressive voters?

I'm betting no to both propositions.  That doesn't mean the UCP loses the next election.  But making the integrated comprehensive mutually positive relationship between the environment and the economy as a major ballot box issue is a great start to defeating Kenney next election, 

If you want to dig deeper into the Abacus survey the link is here...

Greg Clark Steps Down as Alberta Party Leader

In a surprise move the Alberta Party is in the hunt for a new leader.   With recent consolidation of the uber-right in the UCP there are a lot of free-floating former progressives in the former party of Lougheed who are looking for a home.

The Alberta Party has had a number of false-positive political test results around thwarted floor crossings from the Stelmach government and the Sherman Liberals.  Never able to raise sufficient funds to really be a contender they were able to elect thier Leader Greg Clark in the last provincial election.

Whether he was nudged, pushed or saw a personal obligation to resign to help refresh the Alberta Party through a leadership contest, that is the stuff of pundit and partisan  pontification.  In the real world it matters not.

We have a two-party system at present that sees each other as extremist, be it the "socialist" left or "social conservative" right. The reality is the majority of Alberta voters are in the centre but nobody is really resonating with this progressive majority of Albertans.  The Alberta Party is an unfulfilled potential and the Notley NDP is making moves more towards the centre while the UCP is moving farther to the radical religious right.

The three partisan options potentially to be offered to Albertans can be described as Arrested, Closed or Open.  The NDP was elected as a reaction against the social conservative Wildrose and the self-serving entitled mindset of the PCs.  The political surveys, while fraught with methodological faults, a consensus seems to be forming.

That is a growing perception that the NDP has peaked and further progress is "Arrested" or Stalled. Barriers towards further progress have emerged that need to be overcome. They may lack the insight to perceive or to explain what is happening so that the barriers can be overcome.  Political dissonance on wedge issues may still emerge to help them sustain power and establish them as an authentic and preferred option for change.

The UCP is Closed in that they are psychologically blind to seeing alternatives to their fiscal hawkishness, social conservative base and climate change denier beliefs.  They can't even see their barriers to achieving a broader "big tent" political acceptance, never mind overcome them.   Their internal divisive history makes change difficult.  Their membership is threatened by change and fight to perfect yesterday.  They wish to return Alberta to a Bible-Belt social policy with simplistic economic policy while ignoring environmental concerns.

The Alberta Party is Open to realizing the potential of change as as evidenced by the resignation of its leader.  The Alberta Party has had many barriers to becoming a significant political force but they are aware of them and open to new ways to overcome them.  Recent boost in membership from disenfranchised progressives and centrists and the potential for some serious fundraising show the Alberta Party is able to more more freely to adapt and adjust to the shifting political culture of Alberta.  

They are not locked in the Left versus Right outdated political perception trap.  They are open to accepting individual differences and not locked into habitual patterns of the other conventional parties.  They accept that change is and complex so they are not prone to jumping on the politics-as-usual simplistic bandwagons.  They are more likely to have good listening skills, be accepting of differences and be non-judgmental about various approaches to life.

We may be closer to the next election and to the last one.  So time is of the essence for all parties.  I have no idea what will happen but nothing is guaranteed for any political party in Alberta these days.