Dion calls for the reinstatement of the Court Challenges program cut by the Harper Cons. Good for him.
The Cons say “why would the government fund people who want to challenge official government policy through the Courts?” They also say the Court Challenges Program was not much more than a pool of cash for lawyers to access to irritate the government. That seems to be the extent of the rationale for Harper to cut the program. It has been cut before, by the Mulroney government and later reinstated.
The fundamental reason to have the program is to enable differing opinions to challenge government policy based on law and its interpretation, not political whims as the Cons imply. It is a very worthwhile program and one that reflects a mature democracy, not the stern disciplinary “father knows best stance” and Harper “is your daddy” of the current federal Bush-like CPC government.
In the spirit of full disclosure I have been one of the lawyers who have accessed the Court Challenges “pool of cash” in order to fight a government policy. We acted on behalf of a group of Franco-Albertans who wanted to exercise their Section 23 Charter rights for a minority French language school in Alberta. This action was contrary to the stated policy of the Government of Alberta, under then Premier, Peter Lougheed.
Lougheed’s government was one of the most enlightened of the day but the animus towards bilingualism and the sense that “French was being shoved down or throats” was still alive in Alberta in those days. The obvious political position of the Alberta government was taken and they argued that there were not enough French speaking people to pass the “where number warrant” test in the legislation.
The Alberta government fought us all the way to the Supreme Court. Our client’s, who were ordinary citizens and not independently wealthy, could not afford to continue the battle without the aid of the Court Challenges program. I believe we got the last funds from the program just before Mulroney killed it.
The “where number warrant” test in the legislation is what the case turned on. How to prove you had enough French speaking people to warrant a minority language school system was a big legal challenge to be sure. What was the minimum number of minority French language speaking people in an area that was needed to justify a school?
We had a stroke of genius one day and thought the maximum test for sufficient numbers should be the same number of students as in the smallest English speaking school jurisdiction in Alberta. Eureka! We found a mainstream school jurisdiction under Alberta law in Waterton Lakes National Park that had only 23 students but they had an elected School Board, a Superintendent and a full blown delivery system for only 23 student.
BTW, the Supreme Court agreed with us and we won the case. The francophone school system in Alberta is now well established, highly respected and thriving all over the province.
Recommend this Post to Progressive Bloggers
Showing posts with label Dion. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dion. Show all posts
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Sunday, April 15, 2007
The Alberta Budget Means the Week Ahead is Going to be Interesting
ELIZABETH MAY'S BLOG IS NOW LINK TO THIS SITE!
Adding Elizabeth May to my links should help Progressives who read this Blog to stay current with May's campaign and encourage them to learn more about her and the Greens. I am still thinking there is no pending federal election. This gives Dion and May time to establish themselves and to become better known. They sure need the time.
My sense is the more we learn about Harper the less trusted he will become. The more we learn about Dion and May the more we will come to respect them and the more we will learn about the critical issues and needs to adapt to climate change.
THE SLOW MOVING TSUNAMI THAT IS MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE
We have done some initial reviews of the community workshop findings out of the first leg of the Grande Alberta Economic region road show. We are in these communities talking to the full range of local interests and gathering insight and input from the key Alberta communities who will be hit the hardest. We are on the road again tomorrow starting in Drayton Valley then Whitecourt and finally Grande Cache.
The economic and environmental concerns are being looked at and considered in many ways by the province and the feds. The social impacts on the communities and this region are also important and have to be integrated into any mitigation and adaptation strategy. That effort really has to come from the commuities on a bottom up approach along iwth the top down from the senior orders of government.
Prevention of the beetle is futile. Mitigation can only buy time but not stop it. Adaptation is the key and time is of the essence with some estimates of peak infestation in the province coming in as little as five years. One thing is for sure, our forests are going to change as a result of the Mountain Pine beetle The industies and commuities that rely on them are going to have to adapt significantly to the new reality.
The beetle is now in Banff and Jasper and the policy there is to use prescribed burning to combat the infestation. Our National Parks are sources of great pride for Canadians. The reality of the Mountain Pine Beetle and its consequences means the mountain parks in Alberta are going to change and potentially very radically and very soon.
SMOKE FREE ALBERTA IS GETTING ACTIVE
The coalition of various groups and agencies are now well organized. They are focused on gting legislated smoking bans in work and public places and to support the Alberta Minister of Health and Wellness Dave Hancock in this part of his wellness agenda. This is not a new idea in Alberta but in the past four attempts to legislate these changes it was opposed the Alberta government under Ralph Klien who always killed it at the political level.
Premier Stelmach and Minister Hancock are keen to see it pass this time but the Premier has said the matter must still have Caucus support to proceed. Hancock is gearing up to initiate the internal political process to legislate the public and work places ban, remove tobacco sales from pharmacies and control the"powerwalls" displays in stores where tobacco products are sold.
One suggestion from a citizen was that tobacco should only be sold in liquor stores making it a destination purchase and not a convenience purchase. He also noted who would risk their liquor license by selling tobacco products to a minor? Polls show Albertans what this to happen. It's about health and it's about time.
IT IS BUDGET WEEK IN ALBERTA
There is lots of anticipation surrounding the Stelmach government's first Budget. The disability community throughtout Alberta for example is looking for significant new dollars to recruit and retain staff that are at dangerously low levels. They have been meeting with MLAs Ministers and officials and have been told that new money is coming in the Budget. They are in a wait and see mode right now and nervously "holding their breath" for Budget details.
The situation is quite dire in many cases due primarily to the lack of funding levels to enable this sector to provide competative pay levels. The recent group home fire in Edmonton that resulted in a fatality of a disabled person was fully staffed and well operated at th etime of this tragedy. There are staff level shortages in many service providers all over Alberta that would not be able to deal with such an emergency effectively. It is that critical in too many cases in service provider capacity to meet service needs of their clients.
The political culture in Alberta that resulted from ten years of budget cuts and five years of political lethargy has to be changed. We see that Premier Stelmach is intellectually and emotionally ready to make the changes and he has initiated a wave of consultations and initiatives since becoming Premier four short months ago.
This week we will see the Budget and that will tell us how ready he is to take the real action to assure Albertans we have a new and very different kind of progressive government. I am looking forward optimisticaly to the Budget Speech on April 19th as both a partisan and as a citizen.
Recommend this Post to Progressive Bloggers
Adding Elizabeth May to my links should help Progressives who read this Blog to stay current with May's campaign and encourage them to learn more about her and the Greens. I am still thinking there is no pending federal election. This gives Dion and May time to establish themselves and to become better known. They sure need the time.
My sense is the more we learn about Harper the less trusted he will become. The more we learn about Dion and May the more we will come to respect them and the more we will learn about the critical issues and needs to adapt to climate change.
THE SLOW MOVING TSUNAMI THAT IS MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE
We have done some initial reviews of the community workshop findings out of the first leg of the Grande Alberta Economic region road show. We are in these communities talking to the full range of local interests and gathering insight and input from the key Alberta communities who will be hit the hardest. We are on the road again tomorrow starting in Drayton Valley then Whitecourt and finally Grande Cache.
The economic and environmental concerns are being looked at and considered in many ways by the province and the feds. The social impacts on the communities and this region are also important and have to be integrated into any mitigation and adaptation strategy. That effort really has to come from the commuities on a bottom up approach along iwth the top down from the senior orders of government.
Prevention of the beetle is futile. Mitigation can only buy time but not stop it. Adaptation is the key and time is of the essence with some estimates of peak infestation in the province coming in as little as five years. One thing is for sure, our forests are going to change as a result of the Mountain Pine beetle The industies and commuities that rely on them are going to have to adapt significantly to the new reality.
The beetle is now in Banff and Jasper and the policy there is to use prescribed burning to combat the infestation. Our National Parks are sources of great pride for Canadians. The reality of the Mountain Pine Beetle and its consequences means the mountain parks in Alberta are going to change and potentially very radically and very soon.
SMOKE FREE ALBERTA IS GETTING ACTIVE
The coalition of various groups and agencies are now well organized. They are focused on gting legislated smoking bans in work and public places and to support the Alberta Minister of Health and Wellness Dave Hancock in this part of his wellness agenda. This is not a new idea in Alberta but in the past four attempts to legislate these changes it was opposed the Alberta government under Ralph Klien who always killed it at the political level.
Premier Stelmach and Minister Hancock are keen to see it pass this time but the Premier has said the matter must still have Caucus support to proceed. Hancock is gearing up to initiate the internal political process to legislate the public and work places ban, remove tobacco sales from pharmacies and control the"powerwalls" displays in stores where tobacco products are sold.
One suggestion from a citizen was that tobacco should only be sold in liquor stores making it a destination purchase and not a convenience purchase. He also noted who would risk their liquor license by selling tobacco products to a minor? Polls show Albertans what this to happen. It's about health and it's about time.
IT IS BUDGET WEEK IN ALBERTA
There is lots of anticipation surrounding the Stelmach government's first Budget. The disability community throughtout Alberta for example is looking for significant new dollars to recruit and retain staff that are at dangerously low levels. They have been meeting with MLAs Ministers and officials and have been told that new money is coming in the Budget. They are in a wait and see mode right now and nervously "holding their breath" for Budget details.
The situation is quite dire in many cases due primarily to the lack of funding levels to enable this sector to provide competative pay levels. The recent group home fire in Edmonton that resulted in a fatality of a disabled person was fully staffed and well operated at th etime of this tragedy. There are staff level shortages in many service providers all over Alberta that would not be able to deal with such an emergency effectively. It is that critical in too many cases in service provider capacity to meet service needs of their clients.
The political culture in Alberta that resulted from ten years of budget cuts and five years of political lethargy has to be changed. We see that Premier Stelmach is intellectually and emotionally ready to make the changes and he has initiated a wave of consultations and initiatives since becoming Premier four short months ago.
This week we will see the Budget and that will tell us how ready he is to take the real action to assure Albertans we have a new and very different kind of progressive government. I am looking forward optimisticaly to the Budget Speech on April 19th as both a partisan and as a citizen.
Recommend this Post to Progressive Bloggers
Saturday, April 14, 2007
Good for Dion and May
It is time to get serious about the implications of the Dion/May so-called Red/Green show. I have been waiting for this liaison to consummate for some time now. I am delighted as a Canadian to see a new politics start to crystallize with this collaboration. Who would not trade Lizzie for Belinda if you were serous about the future and good governance of the country?
I have scanned a smattering of blogs on this issue and listened to the local Liberal Party president Allan Armsworthy interview on the House this morning. He is a most reasonable and enlightened man in my opinion. It is worth a listen.
As for disenfranchising Liberal voters in Central Nova constituency well yes that may be true for a few folks but we are dealing with the Law of Small Numbers here. Everyone who voted Liberal, or for any other party for that matter, is not one of “them” and they did not decide to "join the party" as a result of their vote. They are just ordinary citizens who voted in a certain way and who made their decision based on any number of individual motivating drivers. Old thinking MSM seems to believe everyone who voted Liberal is a Liberal and they will be upset and disenfranchised. "Out of touch" is the kindest thing one can say about such superficial observations.
The real world sees about 3% of Canadians actually belonging to political parties...that is all of them combined. So those gladiator Liberal members in Central Nova, if you are ticked…go ahead and cry a river of angst and anguish but you know you will get over it. Besides May could well be the best Liberal you can muster as a preferred candidate anyway.
Political parties have too much power and influence given the sparse and clubby nature of the usually exclusive activist membership. That is true of all political parties these days. This focus on local party membership reaction over this collaboration is not the main issue at play here.
What is truly wonderful about this unconventional collaboration of Dion and May is just that. It is collaboration not a confrontation and it is based on an expression of personal convictions and values. This “unusual” move by Dion and May is not about power politics, the cult of personality or adversarial partisanship. It is not a back room deal and Layton has to desperately characterize it. It is about two pragmatic people with leadership ability, a depth of character and with genuine convictions who want to make a difference acting strategically. I applaud the move.
Lets face it we have a plethora of McKay types in the House of Commons and a dearth of May types. This is a designed effort towards creating a potential for a greater diversity of voices that the first past the post approach will not deliver. This is in and of itself enough to make this collaboration worthy of praise.
We live in a relational world not a hierarchical one any more. That maybe news to Harper but I doubt it. My guess is Harper just does not want to network with his own Caucus. He wants to command and control them. Given the value set and loose cannon proclivities of many of them, one can hardly blame Harper.
Dion and May on the other hand are post-conventional politicians and the first wave of a new kind of politics. Their collaboration is the first tangible sign of a new political order emerging. Heaven knows we need one.
ongratulations to both of them for this courage and wisdom. I expect we will see Canada better served because of this initiative. If not this coming election, then the next one for sure.
Recommend this Post at Progressive Blogger
I have scanned a smattering of blogs on this issue and listened to the local Liberal Party president Allan Armsworthy interview on the House this morning. He is a most reasonable and enlightened man in my opinion. It is worth a listen.
As for disenfranchising Liberal voters in Central Nova constituency well yes that may be true for a few folks but we are dealing with the Law of Small Numbers here. Everyone who voted Liberal, or for any other party for that matter, is not one of “them” and they did not decide to "join the party" as a result of their vote. They are just ordinary citizens who voted in a certain way and who made their decision based on any number of individual motivating drivers. Old thinking MSM seems to believe everyone who voted Liberal is a Liberal and they will be upset and disenfranchised. "Out of touch" is the kindest thing one can say about such superficial observations.
The real world sees about 3% of Canadians actually belonging to political parties...that is all of them combined. So those gladiator Liberal members in Central Nova, if you are ticked…go ahead and cry a river of angst and anguish but you know you will get over it. Besides May could well be the best Liberal you can muster as a preferred candidate anyway.
Political parties have too much power and influence given the sparse and clubby nature of the usually exclusive activist membership. That is true of all political parties these days. This focus on local party membership reaction over this collaboration is not the main issue at play here.
What is truly wonderful about this unconventional collaboration of Dion and May is just that. It is collaboration not a confrontation and it is based on an expression of personal convictions and values. This “unusual” move by Dion and May is not about power politics, the cult of personality or adversarial partisanship. It is not a back room deal and Layton has to desperately characterize it. It is about two pragmatic people with leadership ability, a depth of character and with genuine convictions who want to make a difference acting strategically. I applaud the move.
Lets face it we have a plethora of McKay types in the House of Commons and a dearth of May types. This is a designed effort towards creating a potential for a greater diversity of voices that the first past the post approach will not deliver. This is in and of itself enough to make this collaboration worthy of praise.
We live in a relational world not a hierarchical one any more. That maybe news to Harper but I doubt it. My guess is Harper just does not want to network with his own Caucus. He wants to command and control them. Given the value set and loose cannon proclivities of many of them, one can hardly blame Harper.
Dion and May on the other hand are post-conventional politicians and the first wave of a new kind of politics. Their collaboration is the first tangible sign of a new political order emerging. Heaven knows we need one.
ongratulations to both of them for this courage and wisdom. I expect we will see Canada better served because of this initiative. If not this coming election, then the next one for sure.
Recommend this Post at Progressive Blogger
Sunday, April 08, 2007
Our April 8th Column in LaPresse
LaPresse 8 avril 2007
Ken Chapman et Satya Das
Les auteurs dirigent Cambridge Strategies Inc, groupe-conseil albertain en politique publique.
The emergence of Mario Dumont and his autonomist agenda profoundly alters the traditional landscape of the Canadian federation.
In the middle of political uncertainty, the only certainty we have left is that we are all living on moving ground.
Yet this shifting terrain can be a place of some promise. Depending on the connotation and the meaning attached, the word autonomist can also be descriptive of Alberta – a desire for jurisdictional autonomy, in the context of a profound attachment to the idea of Canada.
In a sense, it is good that Quebec shifted away from deciding the old federalist versus separatist criteria. That division brought us close to sterility and futility. Any new channel of discourse, so robustly supported by Quebec voters, is preferable to the stalemate.
Even more interesting is the consensus among commentators that the rise of the ADQ reflects the politics of identity. If this is true, it has implications outside Quebec, in other parts of Canada where similar strains on traditional identity are very much a part of the social and cultural landscape.
Dumont’s ADQ tapped into the angst of rural and socially conservative Quebecers over accommodations around immigration, family values, distrust of elites and a fear of an erosion of francophone identity. Apart from francophone identity, these are resonant issues in Alberta as well.
Dumont’s campaign comments have been characterized as “a more prudent kind of nationalism” allowing him to play both sides of the federalist-separatist fence, yet his future depends on how an autonomist approach is elaborated in practice. If this is about demanding Ottawa respect provincial jurisdiction and a belief that strong provinces add to the strength of Canada, we are all for it. If it means isolationism, we are not!
We see Dumont today as a three-legged man. He has one foot with the federalists, one with the separatists and another planted firmly with Quebec’s social conservatives. Can the “real” Dumont sustain this stance for very long? He has to shift his political weight one way or another or he will risk looking indecisive and ill-defined as the inevitable next election looms large.
We expect the dynamics, timing, issues and even the outcome of the next federal election will have a lot to do with Quebec’s concerns as well. Harper clearly now needs a new “best friend” in Quebec. Jean Charest is not “the man” any more. Andre Boisclair is done, and never was in the running as Harper’s new best friend. Enter Dumont as the great Harper hope for a majority federal government—thanks to Quebec.
Dumont's support for Harper will come at a price in both dollar distributions and the devolution of powers to the province. He will force Harper to look fiscally like a profligate federal Liberal. Our guess is Harper will be bound and determined to buy Quebec’s “loyalty” no matter what it takes. Harper needs to “embrace” Quebec in order to win a majority government. The rest of Canada will not be amused and tensions will rise. Not an easy game for Harper to play but the recent federal Budget shows that every political soul has its price.
We live in uncertain times with minority governments in Canada and Quebec and with Ontario facing an election this fall. Alberta is at best a year away from an election and who knows what these elections will decide or how they will change the country.
Citizens all over Canada are expressing dissatisfaction about how they are being governed. Quebec is just the most recent and the most dramatic expression of this discontent. If this keeps up, we may have to declare that old fashioned command-and-control politicians a nationally endangered species.
Whether Dumont is the first of a new breed, or a repackaged version of an old-school politician, remains to be seen.
Ken Chapman et Satya Das
Les auteurs dirigent Cambridge Strategies Inc, groupe-conseil albertain en politique publique.
The emergence of Mario Dumont and his autonomist agenda profoundly alters the traditional landscape of the Canadian federation.
In the middle of political uncertainty, the only certainty we have left is that we are all living on moving ground.
Yet this shifting terrain can be a place of some promise. Depending on the connotation and the meaning attached, the word autonomist can also be descriptive of Alberta – a desire for jurisdictional autonomy, in the context of a profound attachment to the idea of Canada.
In a sense, it is good that Quebec shifted away from deciding the old federalist versus separatist criteria. That division brought us close to sterility and futility. Any new channel of discourse, so robustly supported by Quebec voters, is preferable to the stalemate.
Even more interesting is the consensus among commentators that the rise of the ADQ reflects the politics of identity. If this is true, it has implications outside Quebec, in other parts of Canada where similar strains on traditional identity are very much a part of the social and cultural landscape.
Dumont’s ADQ tapped into the angst of rural and socially conservative Quebecers over accommodations around immigration, family values, distrust of elites and a fear of an erosion of francophone identity. Apart from francophone identity, these are resonant issues in Alberta as well.
Dumont’s campaign comments have been characterized as “a more prudent kind of nationalism” allowing him to play both sides of the federalist-separatist fence, yet his future depends on how an autonomist approach is elaborated in practice. If this is about demanding Ottawa respect provincial jurisdiction and a belief that strong provinces add to the strength of Canada, we are all for it. If it means isolationism, we are not!
We see Dumont today as a three-legged man. He has one foot with the federalists, one with the separatists and another planted firmly with Quebec’s social conservatives. Can the “real” Dumont sustain this stance for very long? He has to shift his political weight one way or another or he will risk looking indecisive and ill-defined as the inevitable next election looms large.
We expect the dynamics, timing, issues and even the outcome of the next federal election will have a lot to do with Quebec’s concerns as well. Harper clearly now needs a new “best friend” in Quebec. Jean Charest is not “the man” any more. Andre Boisclair is done, and never was in the running as Harper’s new best friend. Enter Dumont as the great Harper hope for a majority federal government—thanks to Quebec.
Dumont's support for Harper will come at a price in both dollar distributions and the devolution of powers to the province. He will force Harper to look fiscally like a profligate federal Liberal. Our guess is Harper will be bound and determined to buy Quebec’s “loyalty” no matter what it takes. Harper needs to “embrace” Quebec in order to win a majority government. The rest of Canada will not be amused and tensions will rise. Not an easy game for Harper to play but the recent federal Budget shows that every political soul has its price.
We live in uncertain times with minority governments in Canada and Quebec and with Ontario facing an election this fall. Alberta is at best a year away from an election and who knows what these elections will decide or how they will change the country.
Citizens all over Canada are expressing dissatisfaction about how they are being governed. Quebec is just the most recent and the most dramatic expression of this discontent. If this keeps up, we may have to declare that old fashioned command-and-control politicians a nationally endangered species.
Whether Dumont is the first of a new breed, or a repackaged version of an old-school politician, remains to be seen.
Harper Still Falls Short - According to SES Poll Results Today.
SES has just released a new poll. Nice to see a poll that relates to pre-budget and post-budget periods with sufficient time lapse to neutralize the impact of the media coverage bounce. Also nice to see nothing much has changed since Jan 2006 election results with respect to the relative position of the parties. Decima is a bit different and the Cons love to jump on one result and call it a trend. All other recent polling shows about the same-old-same-old results as in Jan 2006 and this SES poll.
At least Dion has maintained the Liberal position and the Cons are still unable to capitalize on the power inherent in holding office. In fact they are tied within the polls margin of error, if you want to take an optimistic view. Harper only wants an election if he can appear to be pushed into it. Give us a year more to see who Dion is and capable of, the same goes for what May stands for and if Layton can escape the gravitational pull of the NDP past.
The Cons have been able to buy an 8 point bounce in Quebec for about $4.0B in booty if you include the aerospace $900M announced this week. How long will that last with Charest saying it is not enough and a Quebec minority meaning they will be in constant campaign mode there.
The other regional results are telling too. The other key battle front is Ontario which sees the NDP and Greens eroding support and going from the highest uncommitted vote to the average...all of this repositioned support is split between the two major parties who are now neck and neck.
The West is most interesting where the Liberals have a 5 positive point bounce and the Cons are static and only 6 points up on the Libs. What is going on there? The West got nothing from the budget except dismay that Harper has turned into the kind of Quebec pandering politician that spawned the Reform Party in the first place. How much can he alienate his base before he starts to see them staying home or sending a harsher message over his CPC leadership status? That grumpiness about Harper is just below the surface...expect Ted and Link Byfield to be the lightening rods to hunt Harper down on this front.
Poor old Atlantic Canada can't quite grasp the changes or is it that they have the best contrarian perspective on what things are happening? They keep the Cons at bay with tepid but no change in support and they reduce Lib support giving it to the NCP and the Greens and then have over a 50% bounce in uncommitted voters at 11%. For those Maritimers who can't figure out if Harper is going to "punch or bore" them - relax - he is going to do both to you. You count even less in Harper's sense of Canada than the West does, meaning he does not understand nor does he care much about your wants and wishes as Canadians.
In conclusion nothing has changed in the minds of Canadians in the past 15 months as to keeping a minority government or if it is time for a new majority...but 64% of Canadians in an Angus Reid study says now it not the time for an election.
One big shift we have seen happen since Harper took power. We have a Prime Minister who has demonstrated very forcefully that he and his PMO is the absolute controlling factor in his Party. We also can see that his agenda is to achieve personal political power over the country with Harper as Canada's Cromwell. He will do this at any cost, be it cash, conflict, conspiracy or our national sense of social cohesion.
An Ipsos Reid study recently indicated 65% of Canadians felt they did no know Stephen Harper as a person...in other words who he is and what he believes in and stands for. This is after over 5 years of seeing him in federal political leadership roles. Well in the past 6 months we have seen his tactics from broken campaign promises (Income Trusts and Equalization for example) to hypocrisy on others (wait time guarantees to disregarding the need for child care spaces), to buying Quebec support (the Budget) and a bullying political personality (personal attack ads to cheap-shot Taliban supporter accusations) in how he tries to marginalize and intimidate people.
We can now tell much more about who Harper really is. To my mind he is much scarier than we thought than even in the 2004 election. The key questions for Canadians about Harper is do we trust him? Does he "get the country" and does he have a serious grasp of the critical issues of our time - like the environment? Can we rely on him to keep his promises? Given his obvious hunger for power do we feel he is the right "fit" to be our Prime Minister with a majority government given all the discretion and power of that office? Does he have the kind of character qualities we want to see govern us as a modern mature citizen based democracy?
These polls show Canadians have not yet made up their minds on how they would answer these questions. I have. My answer is no on all counts.
At least Dion has maintained the Liberal position and the Cons are still unable to capitalize on the power inherent in holding office. In fact they are tied within the polls margin of error, if you want to take an optimistic view. Harper only wants an election if he can appear to be pushed into it. Give us a year more to see who Dion is and capable of, the same goes for what May stands for and if Layton can escape the gravitational pull of the NDP past.
The Cons have been able to buy an 8 point bounce in Quebec for about $4.0B in booty if you include the aerospace $900M announced this week. How long will that last with Charest saying it is not enough and a Quebec minority meaning they will be in constant campaign mode there.
The other regional results are telling too. The other key battle front is Ontario which sees the NDP and Greens eroding support and going from the highest uncommitted vote to the average...all of this repositioned support is split between the two major parties who are now neck and neck.
The West is most interesting where the Liberals have a 5 positive point bounce and the Cons are static and only 6 points up on the Libs. What is going on there? The West got nothing from the budget except dismay that Harper has turned into the kind of Quebec pandering politician that spawned the Reform Party in the first place. How much can he alienate his base before he starts to see them staying home or sending a harsher message over his CPC leadership status? That grumpiness about Harper is just below the surface...expect Ted and Link Byfield to be the lightening rods to hunt Harper down on this front.
Poor old Atlantic Canada can't quite grasp the changes or is it that they have the best contrarian perspective on what things are happening? They keep the Cons at bay with tepid but no change in support and they reduce Lib support giving it to the NCP and the Greens and then have over a 50% bounce in uncommitted voters at 11%. For those Maritimers who can't figure out if Harper is going to "punch or bore" them - relax - he is going to do both to you. You count even less in Harper's sense of Canada than the West does, meaning he does not understand nor does he care much about your wants and wishes as Canadians.
In conclusion nothing has changed in the minds of Canadians in the past 15 months as to keeping a minority government or if it is time for a new majority...but 64% of Canadians in an Angus Reid study says now it not the time for an election.
One big shift we have seen happen since Harper took power. We have a Prime Minister who has demonstrated very forcefully that he and his PMO is the absolute controlling factor in his Party. We also can see that his agenda is to achieve personal political power over the country with Harper as Canada's Cromwell. He will do this at any cost, be it cash, conflict, conspiracy or our national sense of social cohesion.
An Ipsos Reid study recently indicated 65% of Canadians felt they did no know Stephen Harper as a person...in other words who he is and what he believes in and stands for. This is after over 5 years of seeing him in federal political leadership roles. Well in the past 6 months we have seen his tactics from broken campaign promises (Income Trusts and Equalization for example) to hypocrisy on others (wait time guarantees to disregarding the need for child care spaces), to buying Quebec support (the Budget) and a bullying political personality (personal attack ads to cheap-shot Taliban supporter accusations) in how he tries to marginalize and intimidate people.
We can now tell much more about who Harper really is. To my mind he is much scarier than we thought than even in the 2004 election. The key questions for Canadians about Harper is do we trust him? Does he "get the country" and does he have a serious grasp of the critical issues of our time - like the environment? Can we rely on him to keep his promises? Given his obvious hunger for power do we feel he is the right "fit" to be our Prime Minister with a majority government given all the discretion and power of that office? Does he have the kind of character qualities we want to see govern us as a modern mature citizen based democracy?
These polls show Canadians have not yet made up their minds on how they would answer these questions. I have. My answer is no on all counts.
Friday, March 30, 2007
Polls Show Canadians Prefer None of the Above for Prime Minister
The polls continue to point in every direction as to the wisdom of a spring election. The policy issues are not making any difference in poll results because the polls are not asking about them. They are focused on the "beauty contest" aspects of the leaders only.
Leadership is a driving value for citizens today but there is so much more on our minds these days that will also have a significant influence how we will actually vote when an actual election is called and it all becomes serious and meaningful. These beauty contest polls are mere media fodder and mostly serve as PR for polling firms. Much ado about nothing when it come to the real world concern of citizens.
So for the "entertainment value" lets look at some of the more interesting findings of recent polls. An SES poll showed Harper’s Budget actually can best be described as having a lukewarm impact in Quebec. It showed only 27% seeing him more favourably, 33.5% not changing their minds and 36.6% thinking less of him.
Charest was not the benefactor of the Harper Budget largess either in Quebec. Only 20.9 improved their opinion of him, 38% were the same and 37.8% say him in a less favourable light. No big confidence booster the for the Charest leadership. The Quebec election results showed the consequences of these numbers in spades.
This poll is important because it focuses on something that is really framing the one of the dominant value drivers for elections right now. It is the quality and character of leadership as well as trust and respect. The overwhelming policy issue is the environment (except for Quebec where health care still runs #1) but leadership is also very important.
SES deserves serious consideration because it was the only pollster who called the 2006 election results accurately. The rest of the polling industry embarrassed themselves with just how far out of touch they were with the voter reality on election day. Could this be happening again given the wide range of results emerging from the various polling firms?
Ipsos Reid yesterday concluded no bounce for Harper out of the Budget last week and commented “…the numbers should stand as a warning to all major parties that an election is not in any of their interests.”
Angus Reid, on the other hand, a day earlier claims Harper’s Cons have a 17 point lead and the Dion Liberals “plummet to 22% nationally.” Harper apparently has a 49% post budget approval rating in Quebec. Given the cash he promises to pour in there what do you expect? Will he sustain these numbers is the question.
This poll is being touted as another proof Harper should go to the electorate now. His approval ratings reflect a tepid support for his leadership also found in the SES poll.
The real interesting number in the Angus Reid poll is the fact that a full 43% say they are Not Sure or that Neither Dion or Harper is the right guy. Couple that with 64% saying the country is on the Wrong Track or Not Sure you have a recipe for volatility and change. The volatility is everywhere too from a high of 71% in BC to a low of 54% in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
Leadership, character, respect and trustworthiness are key considerations. Given an earlier Ipsos Reid poll showed about 65% of Canadians still feel they don’t know what Harper stands for as a person and you can see why he wants to wait and not be facing the country any time soon. Dion is in no better shape in earning the trust and confidence of Canadians yet.
Campaigns matter and it is not time for Harper to go yet. So it looks like the Cons will settle for calling Dion names in another round of attack ads instead. Proving once again they are good at political tactics but deplorable at good governance.
Leadership is a driving value for citizens today but there is so much more on our minds these days that will also have a significant influence how we will actually vote when an actual election is called and it all becomes serious and meaningful. These beauty contest polls are mere media fodder and mostly serve as PR for polling firms. Much ado about nothing when it come to the real world concern of citizens.
So for the "entertainment value" lets look at some of the more interesting findings of recent polls. An SES poll showed Harper’s Budget actually can best be described as having a lukewarm impact in Quebec. It showed only 27% seeing him more favourably, 33.5% not changing their minds and 36.6% thinking less of him.
Charest was not the benefactor of the Harper Budget largess either in Quebec. Only 20.9 improved their opinion of him, 38% were the same and 37.8% say him in a less favourable light. No big confidence booster the for the Charest leadership. The Quebec election results showed the consequences of these numbers in spades.
This poll is important because it focuses on something that is really framing the one of the dominant value drivers for elections right now. It is the quality and character of leadership as well as trust and respect. The overwhelming policy issue is the environment (except for Quebec where health care still runs #1) but leadership is also very important.
SES deserves serious consideration because it was the only pollster who called the 2006 election results accurately. The rest of the polling industry embarrassed themselves with just how far out of touch they were with the voter reality on election day. Could this be happening again given the wide range of results emerging from the various polling firms?
Ipsos Reid yesterday concluded no bounce for Harper out of the Budget last week and commented “…the numbers should stand as a warning to all major parties that an election is not in any of their interests.”
Angus Reid, on the other hand, a day earlier claims Harper’s Cons have a 17 point lead and the Dion Liberals “plummet to 22% nationally.” Harper apparently has a 49% post budget approval rating in Quebec. Given the cash he promises to pour in there what do you expect? Will he sustain these numbers is the question.
This poll is being touted as another proof Harper should go to the electorate now. His approval ratings reflect a tepid support for his leadership also found in the SES poll.
The real interesting number in the Angus Reid poll is the fact that a full 43% say they are Not Sure or that Neither Dion or Harper is the right guy. Couple that with 64% saying the country is on the Wrong Track or Not Sure you have a recipe for volatility and change. The volatility is everywhere too from a high of 71% in BC to a low of 54% in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
Leadership, character, respect and trustworthiness are key considerations. Given an earlier Ipsos Reid poll showed about 65% of Canadians still feel they don’t know what Harper stands for as a person and you can see why he wants to wait and not be facing the country any time soon. Dion is in no better shape in earning the trust and confidence of Canadians yet.
Campaigns matter and it is not time for Harper to go yet. So it looks like the Cons will settle for calling Dion names in another round of attack ads instead. Proving once again they are good at political tactics but deplorable at good governance.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Big Changes Coming in Quebec Tonight
On February 19th my posting asked “Could the Week of March 20-26 Change Canada.?” I was out by one day when the federal budget came out on the 19th. The Quebec election was not yet set for the 26th but I got that date right at least.
It is interesting to reflect on what I thought then and what has happened since. I predicted the Cons budget “…is going to be as bountiful for Quebec as you can imagine…and designed to ‘ensure’ a Charest victory.” Truer words were never spoken, except it did not work for Charest and Harper!
My intuition on February 19th was Dumont would be the big political winner out of the election when I predicted “…that Dumont and the ADQ are going to spoil the party for Charest and Harper. He is not going to win but he is going to be the winner. Quebecers like to make favourable federalist deals but they don’t like to be bought off overtly nor played for fools.” That has proven to be true too.
I said then “It is going to be a fundamental and future changing week for Canada, never mind the shenanigans of Harper and Charest. My guess is Quebec will take the money, Charest will win, the PQ Boisclair will be a bust and told by his party to hit the road and Dumont will hold the balance of Quebec power at the end or the day.
Then I predicted Dion will force the federal election on the Harper Budget and the future of Canada as a nation will once again be at play. We will not have an election over the Budget but we may have it over the Cons environmental package - but I don’t see it happening now until the fall…and that is a good thing.
As for the Quebec election outcome tonight I have another "what if" scenario. Recent media reports attribute this insightful analysis to Pollster Jean-Marc Leger who said, “Essentially Quebecers want Mario Dumont as Premier, they want the Liberal team and they want the PQ platform put into effect.”
So true, but is that going to be the outcome? I think it is entirely possible that the Leger observation of what Quebecers want can become a reality. Consider if Dumont forms the minority government and then the Charest team is in the catbird seat in supporting his minority government, then they can institute PQ policy. The PQ will be too are busy burying Boisclair by forcing a new leadership race. Quebec can have it all. The ADQ's real friends in the Harper government will be receptive because it can mean more CPC seats in Quebec. And Quebec can still have the luxury of using the tried and true referendum threats to extort more power and cash from Canada. Harper has already proven himself to be obliging to Quebec's perceived needs - even without extortion.
Quebecers have signalled through poll results that they are changing, and they want real change and they not prepared to be trifled with. A message is about to be sent in this election to the status quo federalists (read Liberals) and the status quo separatists (read PQ). The last time Quebecers decided to send a ballot box message that they wanted some real change was 1976 when they voted in the separatist government of Rene Levesque. It was a shock to the province and the nation because it seemed to happen out of nowhere particularly to those conventional wise men who thought tomorrow was a mere extension of yesterday. That made them blind to the signs of the serious change that was coming.
If the conventional wisdom today is correct that the two tired old-line parties are found to be wanting of trust and respect, it might just happen again. Are we seeing a sea-change in the politics of La Belle Province? What would be the consequences if the collective, but quite wisdom of Quebecers, decided today, impulsively and intuitively right at the polling station, and at the very moment of putting down their “X” they wanted once again to send a strong message to the "politics-as-usual" crowd?
What if Quebecers en masse decided the ballot question today was to reject the tired old line federalist-separatist lens of Quebec politics and they voted strongly for the ADQ, the so-called "third party?" Could we have an ADQ minority government emerge later tonight? It is as realistic as any other possible outcome under the current circumstances.
What ever the election outcome in Quebec today, some folks in the ADQ will be partying like it is 1976 again. All this in the face of a pending federal election of uncertain timing and outcome too. I smell real democracy and big time fundamental change in the air, not only for Quebec but for Canada too.
Fasten your seat belts Canada; we are flying into some serious turbulence no matter who wins the Quebec election.
It is interesting to reflect on what I thought then and what has happened since. I predicted the Cons budget “…is going to be as bountiful for Quebec as you can imagine…and designed to ‘ensure’ a Charest victory.” Truer words were never spoken, except it did not work for Charest and Harper!
My intuition on February 19th was Dumont would be the big political winner out of the election when I predicted “…that Dumont and the ADQ are going to spoil the party for Charest and Harper. He is not going to win but he is going to be the winner. Quebecers like to make favourable federalist deals but they don’t like to be bought off overtly nor played for fools.” That has proven to be true too.
I said then “It is going to be a fundamental and future changing week for Canada, never mind the shenanigans of Harper and Charest. My guess is Quebec will take the money, Charest will win, the PQ Boisclair will be a bust and told by his party to hit the road and Dumont will hold the balance of Quebec power at the end or the day.
Then I predicted Dion will force the federal election on the Harper Budget and the future of Canada as a nation will once again be at play. We will not have an election over the Budget but we may have it over the Cons environmental package - but I don’t see it happening now until the fall…and that is a good thing.
As for the Quebec election outcome tonight I have another "what if" scenario. Recent media reports attribute this insightful analysis to Pollster Jean-Marc Leger who said, “Essentially Quebecers want Mario Dumont as Premier, they want the Liberal team and they want the PQ platform put into effect.”
So true, but is that going to be the outcome? I think it is entirely possible that the Leger observation of what Quebecers want can become a reality. Consider if Dumont forms the minority government and then the Charest team is in the catbird seat in supporting his minority government, then they can institute PQ policy. The PQ will be too are busy burying Boisclair by forcing a new leadership race. Quebec can have it all. The ADQ's real friends in the Harper government will be receptive because it can mean more CPC seats in Quebec. And Quebec can still have the luxury of using the tried and true referendum threats to extort more power and cash from Canada. Harper has already proven himself to be obliging to Quebec's perceived needs - even without extortion.
Quebecers have signalled through poll results that they are changing, and they want real change and they not prepared to be trifled with. A message is about to be sent in this election to the status quo federalists (read Liberals) and the status quo separatists (read PQ). The last time Quebecers decided to send a ballot box message that they wanted some real change was 1976 when they voted in the separatist government of Rene Levesque. It was a shock to the province and the nation because it seemed to happen out of nowhere particularly to those conventional wise men who thought tomorrow was a mere extension of yesterday. That made them blind to the signs of the serious change that was coming.
If the conventional wisdom today is correct that the two tired old-line parties are found to be wanting of trust and respect, it might just happen again. Are we seeing a sea-change in the politics of La Belle Province? What would be the consequences if the collective, but quite wisdom of Quebecers, decided today, impulsively and intuitively right at the polling station, and at the very moment of putting down their “X” they wanted once again to send a strong message to the "politics-as-usual" crowd?
What if Quebecers en masse decided the ballot question today was to reject the tired old line federalist-separatist lens of Quebec politics and they voted strongly for the ADQ, the so-called "third party?" Could we have an ADQ minority government emerge later tonight? It is as realistic as any other possible outcome under the current circumstances.
What ever the election outcome in Quebec today, some folks in the ADQ will be partying like it is 1976 again. All this in the face of a pending federal election of uncertain timing and outcome too. I smell real democracy and big time fundamental change in the air, not only for Quebec but for Canada too.
Fasten your seat belts Canada; we are flying into some serious turbulence no matter who wins the Quebec election.
Sunday, March 18, 2007
Ten Reasons Why We Should Not Have a Spring Election
There are many reason why we should not have a spring election. Here are my top 10!
1 There are too many pieces of Harper’s 5 point plan in still in the legislative process. They have not had the time to get passed into law like his crime and punishment, health care wait times, accountability and the policy flux around child care spaces. He had a modest agenda and has not had time to deliver. We will have wasted the past year if we have an early election.
2 None of the parties are really ready to go because they are still all finding their policy footing. The Cons have the money, even though they are pitching the party faithful for emergency funds for a pending election. The Cons are currently so busy reintroducing and repackaging prior Liberal polices they need time to convince Canadians they are still the “new” government and not just a lighter version of an old-style Liberal government.
3 Candidate selection is in process for all parties and there is plenty of posturing, including candidate colleges in some parties. But thoughtful and quality candidates need more time to consider running or not. Rushing this process ensures we will have less than optimum candidates offering their “talents” to serve in governance.
4 Party leaders are all ill-defined in the public mind. Polls show we don’t really know nor do we have a clear sense of who Harper is after 5 years back in leadership in the federal political scene. His recent election promises breaches and his epiphany over the environment from a climate change denier to becoming the new super hero “Eco-man” is causing even more uncertainty as to who he really is. Dion is a known environmentalist and federalist but an unknown as a leader even within his party. Layton is seen as an issues broker but undefined and unfocused and still an unknown as a political leader. May is too new and untested and leading a party that is more unknown than even she is but that will change when the next election happens.
5 The national political agenda is too vague and amorphous so we don’t know what this election would be about other than Harper trying to get a majority. Polls are telling us Canadians are unclear if they even want a majority government, of any stripe, as yet. The environment has turned into a lightening rod and all parties have the poll results that have them crowding to the middle ground and bumping into each other like a Keystone Kops comedy. None of this is helping to gain the confidence of the Canadian voter for any political party right now.
6 Volatility and uncertainty in the mind of the voters is apparent in the polls as of late. Except for about 65% saying they do not want spring election and the environment as the #1 issue, nothing is certain or even ascertainable as to exactly what the public wants of its government today. Canadians are not yet over their “test drive” attitude towards the Cons from the last election. In 2006 Canadians elected a minority government on purpose and those purposes have not yet been served. Anyone who causes the election for superficial reasons will be punished in the polls. Any spring election will not be perceived as being about the wishes of the people but about the egos and thirst for power of politicians.
7 We need time to see if Harper will be serious about his budget promises and just how authentic he is about his conversion and version of vert-nouveau. Announcements of program funding and rhetorical political promises are one thing, action and outcomes are entirely different matters
8 We need to wait for some provincial elections to happen and the implications they hold for the future nation to be understood. For sure we will need time to digest the Quebec election outcomes and especially what a minority government in Quebec might mean. We need to understand those implications and even perhaps wait for the elections in Ontario and Alberta to go first because they would be helpful to set some political agendas for the nation and give the federal scene time to focus and define.
9 There needs to be time for the actual outcomes of Harper’s promise to deal with the perception within Quebec of a Fiscal Imbalance and how he will deal with it in fact, and not fiction. We need time to see the real Stephen Harper and his actual execution of policies around equalization and per capita transfers to provinces and how he will actually proceed to decentralize governance to favour the provinces.
10 Finally why are we wasting the time and money for an election when there is no pressing need and no clear issue demanding a mandated resolution? We have yet to see significant real results from Harper and that is not because he has not been trying. He has.
We as Canadians need more time for Harper to prove himself to be worthy of the al powerful position of Prime Minister in a majority government. He wants to afford us less time for that to happen and that is why he is pressing for an early but pointless and likely inconclusive election this spring.
Harper is worried that over time this summer, Dion will become better known, more defined and respected as a political leader. Layton has the same fears over the emergence of May and the Greens who might eat even more of his lunch with more time to become known, defined and respected.
Dion and May need more time to become established and organized so they will not be anxious to go early and they will hold their noses and vote for the budget. Besides they can benefit by seeing the Harper budget and green plan and taking time to comment on the merits and question the Cons actual commitment to the policies they propose. Past actions tend to show the Cons are just that; con-artists on policy and political promises.
Consequently, I expect Harper will try to engineer his demise this spring and if Layton is nervous enough about the Greens and May he will oblige the Cons and force an election. It will not be on the Cons budget but rather on their environment proposals that Layton will see the reason to cause an election.
1 There are too many pieces of Harper’s 5 point plan in still in the legislative process. They have not had the time to get passed into law like his crime and punishment, health care wait times, accountability and the policy flux around child care spaces. He had a modest agenda and has not had time to deliver. We will have wasted the past year if we have an early election.
2 None of the parties are really ready to go because they are still all finding their policy footing. The Cons have the money, even though they are pitching the party faithful for emergency funds for a pending election. The Cons are currently so busy reintroducing and repackaging prior Liberal polices they need time to convince Canadians they are still the “new” government and not just a lighter version of an old-style Liberal government.
3 Candidate selection is in process for all parties and there is plenty of posturing, including candidate colleges in some parties. But thoughtful and quality candidates need more time to consider running or not. Rushing this process ensures we will have less than optimum candidates offering their “talents” to serve in governance.
4 Party leaders are all ill-defined in the public mind. Polls show we don’t really know nor do we have a clear sense of who Harper is after 5 years back in leadership in the federal political scene. His recent election promises breaches and his epiphany over the environment from a climate change denier to becoming the new super hero “Eco-man” is causing even more uncertainty as to who he really is. Dion is a known environmentalist and federalist but an unknown as a leader even within his party. Layton is seen as an issues broker but undefined and unfocused and still an unknown as a political leader. May is too new and untested and leading a party that is more unknown than even she is but that will change when the next election happens.
5 The national political agenda is too vague and amorphous so we don’t know what this election would be about other than Harper trying to get a majority. Polls are telling us Canadians are unclear if they even want a majority government, of any stripe, as yet. The environment has turned into a lightening rod and all parties have the poll results that have them crowding to the middle ground and bumping into each other like a Keystone Kops comedy. None of this is helping to gain the confidence of the Canadian voter for any political party right now.
6 Volatility and uncertainty in the mind of the voters is apparent in the polls as of late. Except for about 65% saying they do not want spring election and the environment as the #1 issue, nothing is certain or even ascertainable as to exactly what the public wants of its government today. Canadians are not yet over their “test drive” attitude towards the Cons from the last election. In 2006 Canadians elected a minority government on purpose and those purposes have not yet been served. Anyone who causes the election for superficial reasons will be punished in the polls. Any spring election will not be perceived as being about the wishes of the people but about the egos and thirst for power of politicians.
7 We need time to see if Harper will be serious about his budget promises and just how authentic he is about his conversion and version of vert-nouveau. Announcements of program funding and rhetorical political promises are one thing, action and outcomes are entirely different matters
8 We need to wait for some provincial elections to happen and the implications they hold for the future nation to be understood. For sure we will need time to digest the Quebec election outcomes and especially what a minority government in Quebec might mean. We need to understand those implications and even perhaps wait for the elections in Ontario and Alberta to go first because they would be helpful to set some political agendas for the nation and give the federal scene time to focus and define.
9 There needs to be time for the actual outcomes of Harper’s promise to deal with the perception within Quebec of a Fiscal Imbalance and how he will deal with it in fact, and not fiction. We need time to see the real Stephen Harper and his actual execution of policies around equalization and per capita transfers to provinces and how he will actually proceed to decentralize governance to favour the provinces.
10 Finally why are we wasting the time and money for an election when there is no pressing need and no clear issue demanding a mandated resolution? We have yet to see significant real results from Harper and that is not because he has not been trying. He has.
We as Canadians need more time for Harper to prove himself to be worthy of the al powerful position of Prime Minister in a majority government. He wants to afford us less time for that to happen and that is why he is pressing for an early but pointless and likely inconclusive election this spring.
Harper is worried that over time this summer, Dion will become better known, more defined and respected as a political leader. Layton has the same fears over the emergence of May and the Greens who might eat even more of his lunch with more time to become known, defined and respected.
Dion and May need more time to become established and organized so they will not be anxious to go early and they will hold their noses and vote for the budget. Besides they can benefit by seeing the Harper budget and green plan and taking time to comment on the merits and question the Cons actual commitment to the policies they propose. Past actions tend to show the Cons are just that; con-artists on policy and political promises.
Consequently, I expect Harper will try to engineer his demise this spring and if Layton is nervous enough about the Greens and May he will oblige the Cons and force an election. It will not be on the Cons budget but rather on their environment proposals that Layton will see the reason to cause an election.
Monday, March 05, 2007
Blogs Wary of Harper Majority - Polls Are Back to a Con-Lib Tie
The level of analysis and the conversation on the Blogs about the implications and complications of a Harper majority government are showing this new medium at its best.
There are so many great postings and rich and enlightening comment threads on this issue I hesitate to do much by visit other sites and watch it unfold.
I recommend the Prairie Wrangler and Far and Wide as good places to start but wander around the Blogs and make up you own mind about the wisdom of a Harper majority.
The polls of late have been generating more heat than light. The Decima “on-line poll” – gave the Harper Cons a substantial lead and the Dion Libs a sobering sense of sliding. Looking to any sign of a trend or momentum the MSM and right wing Blogs jumped all over this. Speculation over an early election bubbled to the top again. We really need to look seriously at what is happening in the March 19 Budget and the March 26 Quebec election before anyone can really make any strategic decisions about the timing and wisdom of any election call.
In the meantime, I hope Decima made some serious attempt to cull and categorize their on-line poll participants to be reflective Canada in terms of the regional population distributions, gender, education income and all other traditional criteria. I am a big fan of on-line surveys but they are nor necessarily reflective of the collective wisdom of the country. They have a more serious purpose but that is a subject for another posting some other time.
New Poll Shows Cons and Libs Back at a Statistical Tie:
Ipsos Reid is out with a new poll that puts the major parties back in a statistical tie. The context of this poll is the Conservative negative ads about Dion are gone, the Quebec election is on and Harper is buying votes in Ontario. Key findings from this poll – beyond the statistical tie are the Cons still stuck at 36% as at Election night and Dion is up 2% now that the negative ads are off the air.
In Quebec the Dion Liberals are up 4 points (at 29%) and the Harper Cons are down 3% (at 18%) even with the gifts and fawning Harper has been doing for Charest. Even in Alberta Harper is down 6 points but still at a commanding total of 55% support.
Not many undecided folks overall but the largest concentration was in Sask/Man at 18% and Ontario at 15% undecided, refused or didn’t know how they would vote.
Campaigns matter and these various poll results taken when there is no election going on are like mood rings. The “colours” of the opinions and the moods of the participants can change very quickly - but they are not decisive. That will not happen until there is a real election happening.
All we have now is a fluid punditry, a volatile voter base and a voluble blogisphere. Not the stuff to risk an election over yet.
There are so many great postings and rich and enlightening comment threads on this issue I hesitate to do much by visit other sites and watch it unfold.
I recommend the Prairie Wrangler and Far and Wide as good places to start but wander around the Blogs and make up you own mind about the wisdom of a Harper majority.
The polls of late have been generating more heat than light. The Decima “on-line poll” – gave the Harper Cons a substantial lead and the Dion Libs a sobering sense of sliding. Looking to any sign of a trend or momentum the MSM and right wing Blogs jumped all over this. Speculation over an early election bubbled to the top again. We really need to look seriously at what is happening in the March 19 Budget and the March 26 Quebec election before anyone can really make any strategic decisions about the timing and wisdom of any election call.
In the meantime, I hope Decima made some serious attempt to cull and categorize their on-line poll participants to be reflective Canada in terms of the regional population distributions, gender, education income and all other traditional criteria. I am a big fan of on-line surveys but they are nor necessarily reflective of the collective wisdom of the country. They have a more serious purpose but that is a subject for another posting some other time.
New Poll Shows Cons and Libs Back at a Statistical Tie:
Ipsos Reid is out with a new poll that puts the major parties back in a statistical tie. The context of this poll is the Conservative negative ads about Dion are gone, the Quebec election is on and Harper is buying votes in Ontario. Key findings from this poll – beyond the statistical tie are the Cons still stuck at 36% as at Election night and Dion is up 2% now that the negative ads are off the air.
In Quebec the Dion Liberals are up 4 points (at 29%) and the Harper Cons are down 3% (at 18%) even with the gifts and fawning Harper has been doing for Charest. Even in Alberta Harper is down 6 points but still at a commanding total of 55% support.
Not many undecided folks overall but the largest concentration was in Sask/Man at 18% and Ontario at 15% undecided, refused or didn’t know how they would vote.
Campaigns matter and these various poll results taken when there is no election going on are like mood rings. The “colours” of the opinions and the moods of the participants can change very quickly - but they are not decisive. That will not happen until there is a real election happening.
All we have now is a fluid punditry, a volatile voter base and a voluble blogisphere. Not the stuff to risk an election over yet.
Sunday, February 25, 2007
Are Pollsters Being Abused by MSM?
Are pollsters being caught up in the Stockholm Syndrome? Are they being require to position individual poll results as points of “light” as if they were heralding a new Messiah? The distinctions being made are in reality with out a difference because they ignore that the results that are being touted are statistically non-existent or exaggerated based on the margins of error.
The commentary by very qualified pollsters is becoming close to the guest slots on the Entertainment Channels who are seen giving “expert” evidence on compelling stories like why Brittany shaved her head or who gets the custody of the Anna Nicole Smith body. This has seen reputable MSM turning polling, and I worry about political commentators too, into a sideshow at best but closer to farce for the most part.
Sure there MSM commentators who are exceptions. Chantal Hebert, Andre Pratte, Rex Murphy and Lawrence Martin are my trust worthies even if I disagree with them, which I do on occasion. There are more who are not hostages to the system, I am sure...but those are my dependable independent thinkers.
Look at how polls and pollsters are also being used as the attention getters in the rating wars of MSM and how they are being abused in the process. "Political Infotainment" must be included the Oxford English Dictionary by now.
Here are a couple of examples of what I think is the MSM abuse of poll results. A Globe and Mail/CTV polls recently showed we "know" Harper more than Dion. After all he has been in the political party leadership game for five years compared to Dions almost 3 months. That is a ratinale as to why we would give him a bigger nod on speculation as to if he would be perceived as the best PM today. It is hypothetical anyway without an actual election call.
The pollster spokesperson on this "story" says with this polling evidence of a Prime Ministerial preference for Harper he should go to an election soon. The more considered analysis shows the real "issue questions" in the poll results showed both men were statically tied within the margin of error range. Generally 25% of the poll participants were undecided...not an insignificant fact to be considered before calling or engineering an election.
We all knew then that Quebec was going to an election sooner and the outcome there, namely a Charest victory, was key to the Conman’s strategy to a federal majority. Why would Harper go now when waiting gives him a potential for a big edge in Quebec? Quebec support for the Cons is the key to a majority government. No reason to go earlier as the story on the poll results suggested…other than a “surge” in the poll. The Cons "bump" by the way was less that the Green’s “surge” in percentage terms in the same poll.
Not to be outdone Canwest/Global a few days later runs its own poll with another firm and the spokesperson for this pollster says the Cons have the momentum but it is insufficient a margin to go to an election. However the sponsoring newspapers headline, notwithstanding the results reads “Tories Top Liberals in Latest Poll.” The story has the following quote from the pollster:
“The survey, conducted by Ipsos-Reid for Canwest News Service and Global
National, says the Conservatives have the support of 36 per cent of the
population, compared to 34 per cent for the Liberals.
The two-point edge enjoyed by Stephen Harper's Conservatives falls within the margin of error, leaving the two parties in a statistical tie, said pollster Darrell Bricker."
The reality is here the Tories do not “Top Liberals.” They are tied and have been for a while. The headline may be lying, if you decide to impute motive. It misleads in any event, regardless of motive. The headline is factuallly wrong but it is a better reader "hook."
The hype and hyperbole in the competing MSM attention wars is not serving the voter well. No wonder more people are turning to Blogs and the Internet for information and analysis. On the Web you know you need a reality filter but the biases are more obvious and often worn on the
writer’s sleeves.
You will not likely be misled and you can weigh the anonymous Bloggers against those who identify themselves as for credibility and integrity. Competition has been sacrificed the objectivity of the MSM. It is as worthy of your mistrust just as Prime Minister Harper is worthy of your distrust given his reckless and politically motivated meddling with the judicial review
process.
The commentary by very qualified pollsters is becoming close to the guest slots on the Entertainment Channels who are seen giving “expert” evidence on compelling stories like why Brittany shaved her head or who gets the custody of the Anna Nicole Smith body. This has seen reputable MSM turning polling, and I worry about political commentators too, into a sideshow at best but closer to farce for the most part.
Sure there MSM commentators who are exceptions. Chantal Hebert, Andre Pratte, Rex Murphy and Lawrence Martin are my trust worthies even if I disagree with them, which I do on occasion. There are more who are not hostages to the system, I am sure...but those are my dependable independent thinkers.
Look at how polls and pollsters are also being used as the attention getters in the rating wars of MSM and how they are being abused in the process. "Political Infotainment" must be included the Oxford English Dictionary by now.
Here are a couple of examples of what I think is the MSM abuse of poll results. A Globe and Mail/CTV polls recently showed we "know" Harper more than Dion. After all he has been in the political party leadership game for five years compared to Dions almost 3 months. That is a ratinale as to why we would give him a bigger nod on speculation as to if he would be perceived as the best PM today. It is hypothetical anyway without an actual election call.
The pollster spokesperson on this "story" says with this polling evidence of a Prime Ministerial preference for Harper he should go to an election soon. The more considered analysis shows the real "issue questions" in the poll results showed both men were statically tied within the margin of error range. Generally 25% of the poll participants were undecided...not an insignificant fact to be considered before calling or engineering an election.
We all knew then that Quebec was going to an election sooner and the outcome there, namely a Charest victory, was key to the Conman’s strategy to a federal majority. Why would Harper go now when waiting gives him a potential for a big edge in Quebec? Quebec support for the Cons is the key to a majority government. No reason to go earlier as the story on the poll results suggested…other than a “surge” in the poll. The Cons "bump" by the way was less that the Green’s “surge” in percentage terms in the same poll.
Not to be outdone Canwest/Global a few days later runs its own poll with another firm and the spokesperson for this pollster says the Cons have the momentum but it is insufficient a margin to go to an election. However the sponsoring newspapers headline, notwithstanding the results reads “Tories Top Liberals in Latest Poll.” The story has the following quote from the pollster:
“The survey, conducted by Ipsos-Reid for Canwest News Service and Global
National, says the Conservatives have the support of 36 per cent of the
population, compared to 34 per cent for the Liberals.
The two-point edge enjoyed by Stephen Harper's Conservatives falls within the margin of error, leaving the two parties in a statistical tie, said pollster Darrell Bricker."
The reality is here the Tories do not “Top Liberals.” They are tied and have been for a while. The headline may be lying, if you decide to impute motive. It misleads in any event, regardless of motive. The headline is factuallly wrong but it is a better reader "hook."
The hype and hyperbole in the competing MSM attention wars is not serving the voter well. No wonder more people are turning to Blogs and the Internet for information and analysis. On the Web you know you need a reality filter but the biases are more obvious and often worn on the
writer’s sleeves.
You will not likely be misled and you can weigh the anonymous Bloggers against those who identify themselves as for credibility and integrity. Competition has been sacrificed the objectivity of the MSM. It is as worthy of your mistrust just as Prime Minister Harper is worthy of your distrust given his reckless and politically motivated meddling with the judicial review
process.
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
Harper Gets to Surge in a Poll...Bush is Still Waiting to Surge in Iraq
A BANNER HEADLINE IN THE GLOBE AND MAIL PROCLAIMS A TORY “SURGE.” Is anyone still surprised that Harper’s political hero and mentor is George W. Bush? Now Harper is intent on outdoing the “Dubya” by having his “surge” first… while the “Decider” is still waiting for his “permission slip” from Congress so he can have his Iraq troop “surge.”
This new Globe and Mail / CTV poll is just daring Steve to call an election. Let’s look at the ploy. The poll of 1000 Canadians done between Dec 15-18, with 3.1% margin of error, shows Harper has 36% versus Dion’s 18% indicating he “would do the best job of Prime Minister.” Layton is a respectable 16% but the real story is 23% undecided. Let’s put some context on this support.
Harper has been a federal party leader for almost 5 years, since March 20, 2002 when he took over the Alliance Party in a decisive first ballot victory from Stockwell Day. He has been Prime Minister for over a year in some of Canada’s most uncertain times. When this poll was taken Dion has been the leader of the Liberal Party, winning on the fourth ballot for a grand total of 75 DAYS, including political hothouse times of Christmas and New Year.
Smilin’ Jack Layton has been the NDP leader more than four years again winning with a first ballot victory on January 25, 2003. He is Mr. Charismatic winning that most meaningless of political questions at 36% nosing out Harper by a point. Harper has to be asking himself, “What is a poor economist to do to after five years to make people warm to him?”
The recent performances of the Liberal party under Chrétien and Martin have not been confidence builders by any stretch. The 36% support for Harper is amazing…amazingly low under the circumstance. The 18% for Dion is also amazing…amazing he has that much support at all when he is virtually unknown, leading a disgraced party who is still in the political penalty box in the mind of Canadians.
On name recognition alone one would expect Harper to be a big winner…”the devil you know.” The most important number on this question…again the 23% undecided. That should scare the “beejeezez” out of Harper and give Dion a glimmer of hope. Remember campaigns matter.
The headline reporting on this poll is a pure ploy to bait Harper into an ego driven early election. I say this because the headline is a misdirection of the poll results as a whole. The real story was on A7 of the Globe and Mail. Taking the 3.1% margin of error in context the critical political questions show a statistical tie.
The key question of “…how would you vote today” has the Cons (34) and Libs (29) still in a statistical tie. “Who do you identify with the most,” Cons (27) Libs (28) another statistical tie. The statistical tie story is the same on questions of who would govern best, manage the economy best and deal with the environment and global warming. About 25% of Canadians are undecided on each of these questions…that is the real story here.
Harper’s five years in leadership politics and focus on only five political promises in the past year has given him the clear edge to where 50% see him as having “…the clearest vision of where HE (emphasis added) want to take the country. He is also seen as the most decisive by 53% of respondents.
The real question these numbers beg is do we share HIS vision of the country…it is not decided yet – just look at the size of the undecided voters. Being decisive is not helpful if we don’t trust you or your decisions or your agenda. What if the voter’s true sense of Harper is one of a man often wrong but never in doubt! That will not win an election.
As for the personal characteristics in this poll, it is old news. We have already seen them from Nik Nanos at SES in his February 12 poll. Read my post of Feb 12 for my take on it then too.
This new Globe and Mail / CTV poll is just daring Steve to call an election. Let’s look at the ploy. The poll of 1000 Canadians done between Dec 15-18, with 3.1% margin of error, shows Harper has 36% versus Dion’s 18% indicating he “would do the best job of Prime Minister.” Layton is a respectable 16% but the real story is 23% undecided. Let’s put some context on this support.
Harper has been a federal party leader for almost 5 years, since March 20, 2002 when he took over the Alliance Party in a decisive first ballot victory from Stockwell Day. He has been Prime Minister for over a year in some of Canada’s most uncertain times. When this poll was taken Dion has been the leader of the Liberal Party, winning on the fourth ballot for a grand total of 75 DAYS, including political hothouse times of Christmas and New Year.
Smilin’ Jack Layton has been the NDP leader more than four years again winning with a first ballot victory on January 25, 2003. He is Mr. Charismatic winning that most meaningless of political questions at 36% nosing out Harper by a point. Harper has to be asking himself, “What is a poor economist to do to after five years to make people warm to him?”
The recent performances of the Liberal party under Chrétien and Martin have not been confidence builders by any stretch. The 36% support for Harper is amazing…amazingly low under the circumstance. The 18% for Dion is also amazing…amazing he has that much support at all when he is virtually unknown, leading a disgraced party who is still in the political penalty box in the mind of Canadians.
On name recognition alone one would expect Harper to be a big winner…”the devil you know.” The most important number on this question…again the 23% undecided. That should scare the “beejeezez” out of Harper and give Dion a glimmer of hope. Remember campaigns matter.
The headline reporting on this poll is a pure ploy to bait Harper into an ego driven early election. I say this because the headline is a misdirection of the poll results as a whole. The real story was on A7 of the Globe and Mail. Taking the 3.1% margin of error in context the critical political questions show a statistical tie.
The key question of “…how would you vote today” has the Cons (34) and Libs (29) still in a statistical tie. “Who do you identify with the most,” Cons (27) Libs (28) another statistical tie. The statistical tie story is the same on questions of who would govern best, manage the economy best and deal with the environment and global warming. About 25% of Canadians are undecided on each of these questions…that is the real story here.
Harper’s five years in leadership politics and focus on only five political promises in the past year has given him the clear edge to where 50% see him as having “…the clearest vision of where HE (emphasis added) want to take the country. He is also seen as the most decisive by 53% of respondents.
The real question these numbers beg is do we share HIS vision of the country…it is not decided yet – just look at the size of the undecided voters. Being decisive is not helpful if we don’t trust you or your decisions or your agenda. What if the voter’s true sense of Harper is one of a man often wrong but never in doubt! That will not win an election.
As for the personal characteristics in this poll, it is old news. We have already seen them from Nik Nanos at SES in his February 12 poll. Read my post of Feb 12 for my take on it then too.
Monday, February 19, 2007
Could the Week of March 20 - 26 Change Canada?
UPDATE FEB 20
FINANCE MINISTER FLAHERTY ANNOUNCES TODAY THE FED BUDGET SPEECH WILL READ MARCH 19 - OK FINE...MAKE ME WRONG...BUT I STAND BY MY CONTENTION DURING THE WEEK OF MARCH 20 - 26 WE WILL SEE MORE PURE HACKERY DESIGNED TO PURCHASE QUEBEC "LOYALTY" THAT IT WILL MAKE CREDIT CARD FRAUD AT WINNERS LOOK LEGITIMATE.
There have been some very significant dates in the modern history between Quebec and Canada. The two referendums, the defeat of the Accords Charlottetown and Meech Lake, the FLQ Crisis and I rank the election of Rene Lévesque in 1976 as amongst the biggies.
Now we are poised for another one…the pending Quebec election speculated for March 26 as at the time of writing. The week of March 20 to 26th could be monumental for the future of the country.
On March 20 we are rumored to have a Federal Budget and 6 days later Quebec will elect a new government. Depending on the Quebec election outcomes Stephen Harper will do his best Charlie Chaplin staged pratfall and will cause a federal election to be called, perhaps by engineering the defeat of his budget.
That budget is going to be as bountiful for Quebec as you can imagine. The Mulroney CF-18 favoritism to Quebec is going to look like downright penury in comparison. Dion may be dancing with the devil Chrétien for political advice but Harper is siting at the feet of Mulroney, at least when George Bush is too busy to return phone calls because his is preoccupied with destroying American influence in the world.
Mark your calendars. March 20 Federal Budget and a give away to Quebec designed to “ensure” a Charest victory. All this for the feigned federalist forces (a.k.a the CPC election positioning for more Quebec seats). This will be the biggest news on Canadian television since Anna Nicole Smith’s death took Iraq and Iran off the 24 hour news cycle.
I have a sense that Dumont and the ADQ are going to spoil the party for Charest and Harper. He is not going to win but he is going to be the winner. Quebecers like to make favourable federalist deals but they don’t like to be bought off overtly nor played for fools.
Don’t under estimate Dumont. Back-of-the-packers have done rather well of late. Stelmach in Alberta, Dion in the Liberal leadership – even Stephen Harper was seen as a second rater until the RCMP thought they should announce their Income Trust investigation and helped Harper out in the 2006 election.
Quebec people do not like being played like cheap fiddles but they want change too. Hence Harper can utter a few choice words, like “fiscal imbalance” and “Quebec Nation” in the dying days of the last election. Harper did not even have to understand the words or the concepts behind them and he gets 12 Quebec seats. Not bad and not because they like Harper but because they wanted to send the Liberals a message…they could not be bought by cheap political tricks and they were humiliated by the implications of same in Adscam.
So come March 20…six days before Charest’s electoral D-day, Harper’s budget will offer a cornucopia of fiscal favours to Quebec and he will cozy up to Charest with so many promises it could only be described as fiscal promiscuity. Quebec will have to decide if it is only the price of their soul we are talking about or the fact of their soul.
It is going to be a fundamental and future changing week for Canada, never mind the shenanigans of Harper and Charest. My guess is Quebec will take the money, Charest will win, the PQ Boisclair will be a bust and told by his party to hit the road and Dumont will hold the balance of Quebec power at the end or the day. Then Dion will force the federal election on the Harper Budget and the future of Canada as a nation will once again be at play.
Bookmark your favourite iconoclastic Blogs and columnists for frequent reading that week. It is going to be fascinating.
Now we are poised for another one…the pending Quebec election speculated for March 26 as at the time of writing. The week of March 20 to 26th could be monumental for the future of the country.
On March 20 we are rumored to have a Federal Budget and 6 days later Quebec will elect a new government. Depending on the Quebec election outcomes Stephen Harper will do his best Charlie Chaplin staged pratfall and will cause a federal election to be called, perhaps by engineering the defeat of his budget.
That budget is going to be as bountiful for Quebec as you can imagine. The Mulroney CF-18 favoritism to Quebec is going to look like downright penury in comparison. Dion may be dancing with the devil Chrétien for political advice but Harper is siting at the feet of Mulroney, at least when George Bush is too busy to return phone calls because his is preoccupied with destroying American influence in the world.
Mark your calendars. March 20 Federal Budget and a give away to Quebec designed to “ensure” a Charest victory. All this for the feigned federalist forces (a.k.a the CPC election positioning for more Quebec seats). This will be the biggest news on Canadian television since Anna Nicole Smith’s death took Iraq and Iran off the 24 hour news cycle.
I have a sense that Dumont and the ADQ are going to spoil the party for Charest and Harper. He is not going to win but he is going to be the winner. Quebecers like to make favourable federalist deals but they don’t like to be bought off overtly nor played for fools.
Don’t under estimate Dumont. Back-of-the-packers have done rather well of late. Stelmach in Alberta, Dion in the Liberal leadership – even Stephen Harper was seen as a second rater until the RCMP thought they should announce their Income Trust investigation and helped Harper out in the 2006 election.
Quebec people do not like being played like cheap fiddles but they want change too. Hence Harper can utter a few choice words, like “fiscal imbalance” and “Quebec Nation” in the dying days of the last election. Harper did not even have to understand the words or the concepts behind them and he gets 12 Quebec seats. Not bad and not because they like Harper but because they wanted to send the Liberals a message…they could not be bought by cheap political tricks and they were humiliated by the implications of same in Adscam.
So come March 20…six days before Charest’s electoral D-day, Harper’s budget will offer a cornucopia of fiscal favours to Quebec and he will cozy up to Charest with so many promises it could only be described as fiscal promiscuity. Quebec will have to decide if it is only the price of their soul we are talking about or the fact of their soul.
It is going to be a fundamental and future changing week for Canada, never mind the shenanigans of Harper and Charest. My guess is Quebec will take the money, Charest will win, the PQ Boisclair will be a bust and told by his party to hit the road and Dumont will hold the balance of Quebec power at the end or the day. Then Dion will force the federal election on the Harper Budget and the future of Canada as a nation will once again be at play.
Bookmark your favourite iconoclastic Blogs and columnists for frequent reading that week. It is going to be fascinating.
Monday, February 12, 2007
Dion or Harper - Who is the Greenest?
Angus Reid released a very interesting poll yesterday. Who is the greenest given “the heightened attention to environmental issues….” They conclude that “neither of the two major party leaders has effectively positioned himself as a champion of green causes.”
Dion (+31%) has a clear lead over Harper (+13%) in the answer to the question of “…who cares the most about the environment and global warming?” the really interesting stat on this question is a whopping 55% say neither (28%) or not sure (27%). The jury is clearly still out on which leader they think really cares enough…and enough is the acid test on this issue.
The fact that women are the most undecided or negative at 64% collectively is a key to future success. Every gender and age group is overall more negative or unsure of who is the leader who cares the most about the environment and global warming. The only exception is the 55+ age group where more are positive in their choice than negative. They favour Dion over Harper in a 34% to 20% difference but 25% say neither and 21% are unsure.
The climate change issue is going to be a ballot question if not the ballot question in the next federal election. It is seen as a serious threat to the world in the opinion of 73% of Canadians with Atlantic Canadians at the highest at 81% and Albertans the lowest but still a dominant 63%. Alberta is essentaily50/50 on if we need to set a domestic example or work on an international influence on changing behaviours of large emitters like China and the Americans. The rest of Canada is 2/3 in favour of cleaning up our own environment act first.
The way public policy forward is both carrots and sticks. Over 80% support government intervention to supply incentives for industry and subsidies to reduce public transit fares. The sticks are punitive measures with surcharges on SUVs and penalties for those who do not recycle.
Some will point out that these poll results show that Alberta appears to be out of line with the rest of the country. While that is true, it is mostly a matter of degree not where Alberta is on the actual positioning on the issues. All parts of the country are generally very similar in their opinions on “greeniness.” (I wanted to coin that word before Stephen Colbert did?)
The environment is the #1 issue with a bullet. Dion is the leader who is the most identified with it but he is far from really owning it. The trust and integrity aspects on who do we believe will do something and stay the course on this issue is a big part of the key to electoral victory.
Harper is hard on the environment redemption trail with his Eco-Trust announcement today. Will that redemption be granted by the voters or will they see reluctant opportunism based on a necessary political reaction to poll results. He was clearly a climate change denier. Now he has to prove he is "true green" and more than just a born again ecologist? Inquiring minds want to know!
Dion (+31%) has a clear lead over Harper (+13%) in the answer to the question of “…who cares the most about the environment and global warming?” the really interesting stat on this question is a whopping 55% say neither (28%) or not sure (27%). The jury is clearly still out on which leader they think really cares enough…and enough is the acid test on this issue.
The fact that women are the most undecided or negative at 64% collectively is a key to future success. Every gender and age group is overall more negative or unsure of who is the leader who cares the most about the environment and global warming. The only exception is the 55+ age group where more are positive in their choice than negative. They favour Dion over Harper in a 34% to 20% difference but 25% say neither and 21% are unsure.
The climate change issue is going to be a ballot question if not the ballot question in the next federal election. It is seen as a serious threat to the world in the opinion of 73% of Canadians with Atlantic Canadians at the highest at 81% and Albertans the lowest but still a dominant 63%. Alberta is essentaily50/50 on if we need to set a domestic example or work on an international influence on changing behaviours of large emitters like China and the Americans. The rest of Canada is 2/3 in favour of cleaning up our own environment act first.
The way public policy forward is both carrots and sticks. Over 80% support government intervention to supply incentives for industry and subsidies to reduce public transit fares. The sticks are punitive measures with surcharges on SUVs and penalties for those who do not recycle.
Some will point out that these poll results show that Alberta appears to be out of line with the rest of the country. While that is true, it is mostly a matter of degree not where Alberta is on the actual positioning on the issues. All parts of the country are generally very similar in their opinions on “greeniness.” (I wanted to coin that word before Stephen Colbert did?)
The environment is the #1 issue with a bullet. Dion is the leader who is the most identified with it but he is far from really owning it. The trust and integrity aspects on who do we believe will do something and stay the course on this issue is a big part of the key to electoral victory.
Harper is hard on the environment redemption trail with his Eco-Trust announcement today. Will that redemption be granted by the voters or will they see reluctant opportunism based on a necessary political reaction to poll results. He was clearly a climate change denier. Now he has to prove he is "true green" and more than just a born again ecologist? Inquiring minds want to know!
Leadership Report Card Poll Shows Harper is Growing into the Job
So some more poll results are out that are adding to the fact that the predominant mood out there is confusion. And these results just add to the confusion so far as I can tell.
The SES Research National Survey poll today based on1002 participants between Feb2-8 on the “Leadership Report Card.” notes that Stephen Harper has “significantly improved” his leadership image in the year plus a bit since he was elected. His trustworthiness is up 14 points to 35%, his competence rating is up 17 points to 41% and the impression of his vision for the country is up 14 points to 39%. Clearly Stephen Harper is showing signs of growing into the job of Prime Minister over the past year. The January 2006 comparative results had only 400 participants so the margin of error was higher.
The Layton numbers have to be sobering with a 7% decline in trustworthiness to 18%, a 4% decline in competence to 13% and a 2% decline to 16% for having an acceptable vision of the country.
The poll numbers on Dion and May are pretty meaningless in terms of personal assessments. This is because of the party leadership changes that happened in November and December. The polls is asking the same questions about a time frame that actually had other people in the party leadership and only having a few weeks to become known, including the Christmas period. When we ask about trustworthiness during a time of transition from a Martin/Dion and a Harris/May change in leadership, what is it people are actually saying in their replies? Who is it that they are really speaking about in terms of trust, competence and vision when they answer?
It appears that Harper is growing into the job and Layton is growing out of one. Not much else can be interpreted from this poll and lots can be speculated. Speculation has like to add to any real meaning and understanding.
The Angus Reid poll out today on “Harper and Dion Who is the Greenest?” has more insight into what is on the minds and what is meaningful to voters. I will do a separate post on this poll shortly.
The SES Research National Survey poll today based on1002 participants between Feb2-8 on the “Leadership Report Card.” notes that Stephen Harper has “significantly improved” his leadership image in the year plus a bit since he was elected. His trustworthiness is up 14 points to 35%, his competence rating is up 17 points to 41% and the impression of his vision for the country is up 14 points to 39%. Clearly Stephen Harper is showing signs of growing into the job of Prime Minister over the past year. The January 2006 comparative results had only 400 participants so the margin of error was higher.
The Layton numbers have to be sobering with a 7% decline in trustworthiness to 18%, a 4% decline in competence to 13% and a 2% decline to 16% for having an acceptable vision of the country.
The poll numbers on Dion and May are pretty meaningless in terms of personal assessments. This is because of the party leadership changes that happened in November and December. The polls is asking the same questions about a time frame that actually had other people in the party leadership and only having a few weeks to become known, including the Christmas period. When we ask about trustworthiness during a time of transition from a Martin/Dion and a Harris/May change in leadership, what is it people are actually saying in their replies? Who is it that they are really speaking about in terms of trust, competence and vision when they answer?
It appears that Harper is growing into the job and Layton is growing out of one. Not much else can be interpreted from this poll and lots can be speculated. Speculation has like to add to any real meaning and understanding.
The Angus Reid poll out today on “Harper and Dion Who is the Greenest?” has more insight into what is on the minds and what is meaningful to voters. I will do a separate post on this poll shortly.
Sunday, February 11, 2007
Harper and Charest Meet the Press Tomorrow!
I see Prime Minister Harper has announced on this Sunday afternoon that he is making an announcement at 10:30 EST tomorrow with Quebec's Prime Minister Jean Charest in Sherbrooke Quebec and then he is off to Trois-Rivieres to "deliver remarks" at 6 pm EST. That is all very elucidating don't you think?
Can’t imagine what all that fuss could possibly be about but it is "open to the media" so it must be of substance. (sic) The unspoken subtext will be the trade off deal has been made to cement an agreement Harper and Charest have come to on election timing in Quebec. Not doubt Harper wants Quebec to go to the polls first. That way he doesn’t have to make promises to Quebec in an earlier federal election that would alienate his base amongst Alberta Reformer/Alliance types and contain promises he would have to deliver on - and be held accountable for in a subsequent Quebec election.
It looks like even the serendipity is fully planned in advance in a Stephen Harper world. I smell a spring election at Harper's behest. He is engineering his defeat...even the Harper rhetoric is that the opposition "will have to account for all the unpassed Bills left on the order paper" if they bring down his government now. That reality sure did not stop him when he defeated Martin and forced a winter election. Lots of Bills of substance have been lost in the swirling winds of time when Harper saw the advantage and forced an election.
It could be the Budget and the debate on it that ticks off the opposition enough to bring down this government. NDP leader Layton is not getting much by way of "atta boys" trying to do to the Harper's budget that he did to Martin's so he is likely ready to pull the pin too. Only the Bloc is likely to be truly hesitant...but then who cares about that.
No inside information on this, I am just reading the entrails of the political rhetoric and the pandering that is going on. I am starting to smell an election.
Can’t imagine what all that fuss could possibly be about but it is "open to the media" so it must be of substance. (sic) The unspoken subtext will be the trade off deal has been made to cement an agreement Harper and Charest have come to on election timing in Quebec. Not doubt Harper wants Quebec to go to the polls first. That way he doesn’t have to make promises to Quebec in an earlier federal election that would alienate his base amongst Alberta Reformer/Alliance types and contain promises he would have to deliver on - and be held accountable for in a subsequent Quebec election.
It looks like even the serendipity is fully planned in advance in a Stephen Harper world. I smell a spring election at Harper's behest. He is engineering his defeat...even the Harper rhetoric is that the opposition "will have to account for all the unpassed Bills left on the order paper" if they bring down his government now. That reality sure did not stop him when he defeated Martin and forced a winter election. Lots of Bills of substance have been lost in the swirling winds of time when Harper saw the advantage and forced an election.
It could be the Budget and the debate on it that ticks off the opposition enough to bring down this government. NDP leader Layton is not getting much by way of "atta boys" trying to do to the Harper's budget that he did to Martin's so he is likely ready to pull the pin too. Only the Bloc is likely to be truly hesitant...but then who cares about that.
No inside information on this, I am just reading the entrails of the political rhetoric and the pandering that is going on. I am starting to smell an election.
Friday, February 09, 2007
Harper Attack Ads Didn't Do the Job on Dion
There are a few new poll results out that were in the field after the Cons attack ads were run. they were designed to position Dion as not being a leader and a do nothing guy on the environment.
The polls are all over the place proving voter volatility is the new normal. There is no clear preference of party leader nor do we have any definitive indication of a preferred political direction in the mind of voters.
Nik Nanos’ SES NationState poll surveyed 913 Canadians between Feb 2 and 8th and shows a Dion/Harper “dead heat” at 33% each of committed voters but the trend lines show Harper in decline and Dion ascending. There are fewer uncommitted voters everywhere since the November 2006 results except in Ontario which is constant and the highest of uncommitted voters at 12%. Quebecers are leaving the Bloc in droves (-11) and those supporter seem to be moving to the Conservatives (+8). The Greens are the strongest in the West at 9% (+1) and the Cons are waning a bit in the West (-7).
What Harper gains in Quebec he is losing in the West but will that result in any seat changes in either place? Not likely but it will be interesting to see how much Harper is prepared to risk his western base loyalty to win Quebec in search of a majority government. The west is obviously noticing Harper's priority focus on Quebec's issues.
Leger has a survey of 1500 run from January 30 to February 4th. They redistribute the undecided responders in proportion to the actual poll allocation and get an increased 7% delta between Cons and Libs, in Harper’s favour. What evidence that undecided will vote and if so, that they split like the rest of the population? The Libs and Bloc are tied in Quebec and Harper “owns” Alberta at 59%. Again the Greens are knocking on the NDP door in the west but they are not there yet to surpass them. A full 15% were not committed or didn’t want to participate. The trend lines show no net change in the party support levels since the 2006 election when the margin of error is applied.
Finally we have Angus Reid’s results of 909 Canadians surveyed on line January 30 and 31, 2007. This was an on line survey designed to test the effectiveness of the Cons attack ads. They asked questions before people saw the ads and then asked them again after they viewed the ads on their computer screens. The report results say “the attack ads didn’t work.” The decline in perceptions of Dion post –viewing the ads was negligible dropping 1% from 40 to 39 on the question of who “would be the best Prime Minister.” Harper’s approvals stayed the same at 36%.
So not only did the attack ads not diminish Dion they added nothing to Harper’s positive profile either. Another key figure is the “Don’t Knows.” A quarter of Canadians have yet to make up their minds on which of these two guys are the best to lead the country. Voter volatility is potentially the ruling factor in the next election results. That means the campaigns will matter.
The next set of questions went to the Dion’s character and capability. The ads reduced perceptions of Dion ability to lead – the prime reasons for running the ads in the first place – by 5% - moving 3% away from his pre-ad supporters and 2% from undecided voters. Other perception questions on Dion and the environment, trust to keep promises and manage the public purse saw the ads have more impact. They changing poll results with more people have a diminished perception of Dion but the change came mostly from the undecided ranks and not from the core Dion support. these question tend to remind voters about the old Liberal fiascos under Chretien and Martin. The Liberals are not yet out of the penalty box but Dion does not get blamed for the "penalty" in the first place.
Only in the "will he improve the environment" question did Dion seem to have a glove laid on him. Then his core support went from 53% before seeing the ads to 47% afterwards. Some perspecitve isneeded here. If Dion actually got 47% of the popular vote in an election he would be forming a Liberal majority…so it is not really indicating much of a body blow to Dion’s potential electoral fortunes.
The hoopla over the ads and the big money spent, including the Super Bowl buy has to be very discouraging to the Tory war room given the net results being bugger all. Not much momentum coming out of this "full court press" on Dion by the Cons, especially for the money they spent on those ads. There is a glimmer of hope though; the ads are reported to have had to the most impact, such as it was, in Ontario and female voters, two key targets for Conservatives in the next election. Their money may not have been totally wasted.
The polls are all over the place proving voter volatility is the new normal. There is no clear preference of party leader nor do we have any definitive indication of a preferred political direction in the mind of voters.
Nik Nanos’ SES NationState poll surveyed 913 Canadians between Feb 2 and 8th and shows a Dion/Harper “dead heat” at 33% each of committed voters but the trend lines show Harper in decline and Dion ascending. There are fewer uncommitted voters everywhere since the November 2006 results except in Ontario which is constant and the highest of uncommitted voters at 12%. Quebecers are leaving the Bloc in droves (-11) and those supporter seem to be moving to the Conservatives (+8). The Greens are the strongest in the West at 9% (+1) and the Cons are waning a bit in the West (-7).
What Harper gains in Quebec he is losing in the West but will that result in any seat changes in either place? Not likely but it will be interesting to see how much Harper is prepared to risk his western base loyalty to win Quebec in search of a majority government. The west is obviously noticing Harper's priority focus on Quebec's issues.
Leger has a survey of 1500 run from January 30 to February 4th. They redistribute the undecided responders in proportion to the actual poll allocation and get an increased 7% delta between Cons and Libs, in Harper’s favour. What evidence that undecided will vote and if so, that they split like the rest of the population? The Libs and Bloc are tied in Quebec and Harper “owns” Alberta at 59%. Again the Greens are knocking on the NDP door in the west but they are not there yet to surpass them. A full 15% were not committed or didn’t want to participate. The trend lines show no net change in the party support levels since the 2006 election when the margin of error is applied.
Finally we have Angus Reid’s results of 909 Canadians surveyed on line January 30 and 31, 2007. This was an on line survey designed to test the effectiveness of the Cons attack ads. They asked questions before people saw the ads and then asked them again after they viewed the ads on their computer screens. The report results say “the attack ads didn’t work.” The decline in perceptions of Dion post –viewing the ads was negligible dropping 1% from 40 to 39 on the question of who “would be the best Prime Minister.” Harper’s approvals stayed the same at 36%.
So not only did the attack ads not diminish Dion they added nothing to Harper’s positive profile either. Another key figure is the “Don’t Knows.” A quarter of Canadians have yet to make up their minds on which of these two guys are the best to lead the country. Voter volatility is potentially the ruling factor in the next election results. That means the campaigns will matter.
The next set of questions went to the Dion’s character and capability. The ads reduced perceptions of Dion ability to lead – the prime reasons for running the ads in the first place – by 5% - moving 3% away from his pre-ad supporters and 2% from undecided voters. Other perception questions on Dion and the environment, trust to keep promises and manage the public purse saw the ads have more impact. They changing poll results with more people have a diminished perception of Dion but the change came mostly from the undecided ranks and not from the core Dion support. these question tend to remind voters about the old Liberal fiascos under Chretien and Martin. The Liberals are not yet out of the penalty box but Dion does not get blamed for the "penalty" in the first place.
Only in the "will he improve the environment" question did Dion seem to have a glove laid on him. Then his core support went from 53% before seeing the ads to 47% afterwards. Some perspecitve isneeded here. If Dion actually got 47% of the popular vote in an election he would be forming a Liberal majority…so it is not really indicating much of a body blow to Dion’s potential electoral fortunes.
The hoopla over the ads and the big money spent, including the Super Bowl buy has to be very discouraging to the Tory war room given the net results being bugger all. Not much momentum coming out of this "full court press" on Dion by the Cons, especially for the money they spent on those ads. There is a glimmer of hope though; the ads are reported to have had to the most impact, such as it was, in Ontario and female voters, two key targets for Conservatives in the next election. Their money may not have been totally wasted.
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
It's Not About Politics. It's About the Planet
I have been watching, with increasing dismay, the diminishing level of political discourse on the issues surrounding climate change in national Canadian politics. The “debate” is not on the issues, the merits of policy options or the design of the way forward. It is almost entirely concentrated on efforts to define the “other guy” in negative terms for some less than adequate political “advantage.”
The Cons have a big television buy for their Attack Ads, attempting to position Dion as the guy who is totally responsible for all Liberal alleged lack of action on environment policy for the past 13 years. The Liberal rebuttal is Harper is merely a born-again environmentalist of political convenience but not a true believer and therefore not to be trusted.
The facts and evidence in support of each position are thin at best but that is not the issue really. There is plenty of blame to go around but time for action is a-wastin’ and we need some definitive action and serious competent political leadership with a larger vision and a longer view than the pending election.
My sense is Canadians will reward resolute, stringent and responsible regulations on GHG limits. The policy we need must encourage and provide incentives for what is nothing short of a culture change in how we live as part of nature and not as its “masters.” That is what polls are saying will be rewarded by the majority of citizen's at election time.
The people are much farther ahead of the politicians in seeing it is time to act on the issues of climate change. We know this is about “us” as much as it is about “them.” We know “we” as individuals, families, communities, countries and enterprises have to change first. We can’t afford to wait for “them” to move first and we have precious little leverage on others save persuasion and market forces.
We need our biggest brains, our most creative minds and our wisest thinkers to be unleashed and able to focus to help design a different way forward. We don’t need more communications consultants commissioned to produce misleading manufactured political rhetoric.
The policy framework for all of this is simple to see but difficult to deliver. It has to link economic growth to enhanced ecological outcomes and provide for improve social cohesion – on a local, national and international context. No big Whoop! (sic)
The chance to actually rethink our operational definitions of success and progress is upon us. Growth without concern for all the costs involved and the integrated ecological implications is no longer "on." The public policy change parade is forming and is at the tipping point for a new public policy approach.
The new approach must balance economic well being, ensure ecological enhancement and advance our social cohesion. The practical people, be they in business, politics or social activist, who can get in front of that parade with credibility and ability, will be the new leaders and agents of this change.
We need to attract, nurture and reward a different kind of person to come into politics if we want to change the nature of how we are governed in our democracy. I have great respect for the abilities of all the current leaders in our federal political parties. My sense is we have good people in a poor system because the system often rewards the wrong things. It is too much about attaining and exercising power for its own sake and not enough about defining progress and measuring achievements for the sake of us all.
This will only change when citizenship becomes something we all value and return to using its power to make a difference. The political system is only as good as the express expectations and the forceful insistence's of its citizens.
The Cons have a big television buy for their Attack Ads, attempting to position Dion as the guy who is totally responsible for all Liberal alleged lack of action on environment policy for the past 13 years. The Liberal rebuttal is Harper is merely a born-again environmentalist of political convenience but not a true believer and therefore not to be trusted.
The facts and evidence in support of each position are thin at best but that is not the issue really. There is plenty of blame to go around but time for action is a-wastin’ and we need some definitive action and serious competent political leadership with a larger vision and a longer view than the pending election.
My sense is Canadians will reward resolute, stringent and responsible regulations on GHG limits. The policy we need must encourage and provide incentives for what is nothing short of a culture change in how we live as part of nature and not as its “masters.” That is what polls are saying will be rewarded by the majority of citizen's at election time.
The people are much farther ahead of the politicians in seeing it is time to act on the issues of climate change. We know this is about “us” as much as it is about “them.” We know “we” as individuals, families, communities, countries and enterprises have to change first. We can’t afford to wait for “them” to move first and we have precious little leverage on others save persuasion and market forces.
We need our biggest brains, our most creative minds and our wisest thinkers to be unleashed and able to focus to help design a different way forward. We don’t need more communications consultants commissioned to produce misleading manufactured political rhetoric.
The policy framework for all of this is simple to see but difficult to deliver. It has to link economic growth to enhanced ecological outcomes and provide for improve social cohesion – on a local, national and international context. No big Whoop! (sic)
The chance to actually rethink our operational definitions of success and progress is upon us. Growth without concern for all the costs involved and the integrated ecological implications is no longer "on." The public policy change parade is forming and is at the tipping point for a new public policy approach.
The new approach must balance economic well being, ensure ecological enhancement and advance our social cohesion. The practical people, be they in business, politics or social activist, who can get in front of that parade with credibility and ability, will be the new leaders and agents of this change.
We need to attract, nurture and reward a different kind of person to come into politics if we want to change the nature of how we are governed in our democracy. I have great respect for the abilities of all the current leaders in our federal political parties. My sense is we have good people in a poor system because the system often rewards the wrong things. It is too much about attaining and exercising power for its own sake and not enough about defining progress and measuring achievements for the sake of us all.
This will only change when citizenship becomes something we all value and return to using its power to make a difference. The political system is only as good as the express expectations and the forceful insistence's of its citizens.
Sunday, February 04, 2007
Dion's Doings and a Rebutal of the Cons Attack Ads.
Readers of my blog will know I seem to gravitate to longer posts. Well I have found a kindred spirit in longer form blogging.
This blogger, "politiquevert" provides some serious factual evidence to rebut the Harper Cons rhetoric that Dion has done nothing while in Cabinet.
Quality research and a powerful posting. Give it a read. Here is the link: http://politiquevert.wordpress.com/2007/02/04/dions-environmental-footprint-on-the-government-of-canada-website/
Another update on Dion's environmental doings...check out the video clip on this site: http://whiletheearthburns.blogspot.com/2007/02/dions-environmental-cred-video.html
Props to Nicole Martel for posting it and bringing it to my attention.
This blogger, "politiquevert" provides some serious factual evidence to rebut the Harper Cons rhetoric that Dion has done nothing while in Cabinet.
Quality research and a powerful posting. Give it a read. Here is the link: http://politiquevert.wordpress.com/2007/02/04/dions-environmental-footprint-on-the-government-of-canada-website/
Another update on Dion's environmental doings...check out the video clip on this site: http://whiletheearthburns.blogspot.com/2007/02/dions-environmental-cred-video.html
Props to Nicole Martel for posting it and bringing it to my attention.
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
There are some Clever Remixes on the Tacky Ads
Jason Cherniak has done a clever take on the Cons job on Dion on his January 29th posting. Clever and funny...and thank what ever omnipresent opmnipotent spritual being that you subscribe to for the freedom and fun of the Internet.
Well done Jason.
...and here is another one - author unknown but perspicatious none the less. What did we eer do before the parallel universe of the Internet?
Well done Jason.
...and here is another one - author unknown but perspicatious none the less. What did we eer do before the parallel universe of the Internet?
Harper and Layton: Alliance or Dalliance?
Alliances and Dalliances
I love the political backroom gavotte going on between the Cons and the Dippers over their principles and which ones they will trade offs or defer between getting the budget passed and getting serious changed around environment policy.
We will have to wait and see if this is an alliance or a dalliance.
On the other hand can we soon expect another couple take to the political dance floor? Will the Libs and the Greens embrace in a struggle to see which one will actually lead in the environment agenda? I don't expect May to give up the "lead" in their dance or on the issues to Dion. She will no doubt make him work harder and look even better on the issues before the music stops and the election is called.
Citizens have yet to decide who they will actually trust and respect on the environment and climate change issues. Will it be Scowling Steve and/or Smiling Jack? Such an interesting and intense couple. Is the winner going to be Studious Stephane and/or Effervescent Elizabeth? They are earnest and energetic for sure...effective - well that is still an open question
That leaves Jilted Gilles looking for someone - anyone to pay attention to him. He faces the music alone and will come to realize that the environment trumps his aspirations for more equalization money as the dominant political issue - even in Quebec.
More on Manning's Musings:
I see Jeffery Simpson in the Globe and Mail today picked up on the Manning Op-Ed piece I posted on last Monday. He mentions the “attack ads” and the ironic timing of his message that we citizens should be showing our lack of tolerance for extremism and then the Cons launch their attack ads outside of the election cycle.
Simpson calls the ads “crude and rude.” He might soon be adding to the rhyme scheme and include “sued.” Some commentary is around that the Cons “tacky ad” content misused copyright material that is the property of others. That would be an interesting development if the content is challenged over copyright. I can see the blogosphere quips about the Cons misuse of "intellectual" property in the context of the attack ads.
Another One Bites the Dust:
So Johanne Gelinas, the Environment Commissioner has been “replaced” because her report last September criticized the former Lib and the current Cons over in actions on climate change. The reason for her departure is that her report smacked of advocacy instead of auditing. I didn’t know she reported to the Auditor General and apparently the two did not see eye to eye on things. Too bad. She was a breath of fresh air in her frankness.
Perhaps this role needs to be a separate office that reports directly to Parliament. Then it could be independent enough to audit and advocate by making recommendations for performance changes and improvements in how environment policy is being implemented.
We have seen the Chief Electoral Officer leave under a cloud of interference and now the Environment Commissioner is bounced. I hope there was no political interference in either decision. The controlling nature of the PMO is not reassuring in that regard. Two incidents do not make a trend but you have to wonder if there a pattern forming here and how much of a chill this puts on the senior bureaucracy.
Eco-pets:
I see the Cons are making merry in Question Period over the name of Dion’s dog, “Kyoto.” Perhaps Harper should get a pet Polar Bear and name him “Endangered.” That would symbolically show Steve's soft side and just how much he cares about climate change too.
I love the political backroom gavotte going on between the Cons and the Dippers over their principles and which ones they will trade offs or defer between getting the budget passed and getting serious changed around environment policy.
We will have to wait and see if this is an alliance or a dalliance.
On the other hand can we soon expect another couple take to the political dance floor? Will the Libs and the Greens embrace in a struggle to see which one will actually lead in the environment agenda? I don't expect May to give up the "lead" in their dance or on the issues to Dion. She will no doubt make him work harder and look even better on the issues before the music stops and the election is called.
Citizens have yet to decide who they will actually trust and respect on the environment and climate change issues. Will it be Scowling Steve and/or Smiling Jack? Such an interesting and intense couple. Is the winner going to be Studious Stephane and/or Effervescent Elizabeth? They are earnest and energetic for sure...effective - well that is still an open question
That leaves Jilted Gilles looking for someone - anyone to pay attention to him. He faces the music alone and will come to realize that the environment trumps his aspirations for more equalization money as the dominant political issue - even in Quebec.
More on Manning's Musings:
I see Jeffery Simpson in the Globe and Mail today picked up on the Manning Op-Ed piece I posted on last Monday. He mentions the “attack ads” and the ironic timing of his message that we citizens should be showing our lack of tolerance for extremism and then the Cons launch their attack ads outside of the election cycle.
Simpson calls the ads “crude and rude.” He might soon be adding to the rhyme scheme and include “sued.” Some commentary is around that the Cons “tacky ad” content misused copyright material that is the property of others. That would be an interesting development if the content is challenged over copyright. I can see the blogosphere quips about the Cons misuse of "intellectual" property in the context of the attack ads.
Another One Bites the Dust:
So Johanne Gelinas, the Environment Commissioner has been “replaced” because her report last September criticized the former Lib and the current Cons over in actions on climate change. The reason for her departure is that her report smacked of advocacy instead of auditing. I didn’t know she reported to the Auditor General and apparently the two did not see eye to eye on things. Too bad. She was a breath of fresh air in her frankness.
Perhaps this role needs to be a separate office that reports directly to Parliament. Then it could be independent enough to audit and advocate by making recommendations for performance changes and improvements in how environment policy is being implemented.
We have seen the Chief Electoral Officer leave under a cloud of interference and now the Environment Commissioner is bounced. I hope there was no political interference in either decision. The controlling nature of the PMO is not reassuring in that regard. Two incidents do not make a trend but you have to wonder if there a pattern forming here and how much of a chill this puts on the senior bureaucracy.
Eco-pets:
I see the Cons are making merry in Question Period over the name of Dion’s dog, “Kyoto.” Perhaps Harper should get a pet Polar Bear and name him “Endangered.” That would symbolically show Steve's soft side and just how much he cares about climate change too.
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