ELECTIONS MATTER BECAUSE OF CHOICES AND CHANGES

ELECTIONS ARE TIMES TO TAKE ACTION

We are rapidly approaching the May 29th Alberta General Election.  Elections are those rare times when political power actually shifts from the elected to the electors.  Citizens as electors, can actually make a difference up to and through the election period.  This can only happen if we are focused, purposeful, politically aware, issue informed, effectively engaged and assertively activated. 

Political leaders, party operatives, advisors and volunteers plus local candidates know that at election time, they have to pay serious attention to the issues, attitudes, needs and aspirations of We the Citizens.  That is simply because they want and need our votes in order to win and keep or take power.  

But there is real political power in our citizenship.  Our power over the political system is always exercised through purposeful application of our personal agency.  Our personal agency power is never more effective than in the time leading up to and on election day.  But very few of us realize this, and if we do, we often do not take advantage of this power shift to citizens as electors.

COMMIT TO BECOME A BETTER VOTER

Elections are about change through individual choices.  The world is run by those who show up and engage.  Voting is the most obvious way we have to show up and exercise our personal political power. That means you have to be serious about the role and responsibility you have as a citizen. 

Unfortunately, most of us do not show up, stand up, speak up, and act up  to exercise the power of our citizenship.  The chronically low voter turnout at election time proves this point.   That can change if voters are motivated in a common cause.  

In the 2015 Alberta election, voters were motivated to send the arrogant and entitled PC government a message.  The result was a dramatic shift from over 40 years of rightwing government to a surprising election of a leftwing majority government. 

In the 2019 election the percentage of voter turnout was the second highest in Alberta history.  The incentive of the United Right, through the newly minted Kenney creation of the UCP, was to motivate others who lean Right to ensure the NDP did not get a second term to govern.  They didn’t. 

What will motivate us to turnout and vote in 2023?  For sure many on the Left and Right will be voting “strategically” against the “Other” side.  Beyond that, will voters become motivated to be more focused and aware of  issues and personal concerns?  Will the moderate majority of non-partisan Albertans be committed enough to vote affirmatively in what they see as a way forward to a better Alberta? Let’s hope so!

 

HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY

Will we have to do more than hope better voting will happen this election! Are you ready, willing and where able, do the work of citizenship to help make the change you want to see in Alberta happen?  The only change you can be assured will happen is the changing we do about ourselves. 

Do you know what you can and will do to become a better voter?  That requires that we personally commit to become better as citizens by actively participating in this election and in our political culture afterwards.

The change we are usually offered by political parties at election time is about leadership and promises made based on partisan ideology.  The changes many citizens want are very personal and local.  They are often specific concerns about public policy issues, individual anxieties, and aspirations about preferred futures.  

Individual citizens often organize to collectively press for policy, program, and process changes in government.  This  common cause approach to impacting change at election time is how positive pro-social differences can be achieved. But this takes leadership and other organizational skills. 

AN ACTION FRAMEWORK AT ELECTION TIME

So how can that hard work of thoughtfully and purposefully deciding your vote be done in a logical and methodical way?  I think a framework based on  Head, Heart, Hand, and Hope can help you determine what is important to you that will help you drive to a conclusion on how to mark your ballot.  

WHAT ARE YOU WORRIED ABOUT?

What is in your HEAD?  What is keeping you up at night?  Are you worried about inflation, or recession and job security? Will healthcare be there should you or your family need it? This is obviously personal even though the issues are broadly public policy or program related.  Ask yourself, what are you paying attention to and why?

HOW ARE YOU SEEING AND FEELING ABOUT YOUR WORRIES?

Where is your HEART? What are you feeling and believing about the matters that concern you? Do you feel your concerns are on the political agenda this election?  If so, which leader, party or candidate is aligned with and focused on your concerns? Do they “get it?”  Are your feelings driven by fear, uncertainty and doubt? Or are you feeling confident that your concerns and aspirations for change can influence the narrative, political agenda, and outcomes in this election?

WHAT ARE YOU DOING ABOUT YOUR CONCERNS?

Next is your HANDS? What are you actually doing to impact change this election year?  Are you going to commit some of your time, talent, money and other resources to make your concerns known to those seeking your vote and your consent to be governed? Will you volunteer for a local candidate?  Will you donate to a campaign?  Will you speak to your friends, family and others in your orbits about your concerns and your efforts as a citizen and encourage them to participate too?

WHAT DOES A BETTER RESULT LOOK LIKE?

Finally and most importantly is what do you HOPE for as an engaged, politically active citizen?  Have you determined your answer to the “then what” aspect of the fundamental question at election time?  What exactly does better look like in your areas of concern?  What do you want to see your government keep doing, stop doing and start doing in your policy, program and process concerns?  

LET’S SHARE AND LEARN FROM EACH OTHER

Reboot Alberta will convene some online events for our community to share experiences and efforts to be the change they want to see as citizens using this framework.  We will focus on the interest areas in Reboot like health, education, economy, social justice, environment and good government.  We can share, learn and even collaborate in pressing for change in our political culture and how we are governed.

How will you let your views be known to the potential lawmakers who are seeking your support in this election?  How will you make an effort to make a difference? More on how to do that is coming.  Stay tuned, stay attuned and do not tune out!  Our democracy is at risk.  Use it or lose it.

 

What Do We Do Now?

The Political Paradox that is Alberta

The political paradox for Alberta is that, while we have had majority governments since 1971 we have had unstable governance since about 2004.  In that election year Ralph Klein kept a majority government but was loosing popular support.  He gave up 12 seats that election, mostly in the Edmonton region.

The End of King Ralph
The Progressive Conservative 2004 election message to citizens on the doorsteps was this would be Ralph's last election and he would be retiring.  After the election Ralph mussed about staying on as party leader.  The PC rank and file membership sent him a strong message in the end of March 2006 leadership review vote at the AGM.   Klein went from a typical 90% public and party approval rating to essentially a vote of non-confidence where he eked  out a slim majority in the leadership review vote.  Ralph was pushed out by the party members and a leadership campaign began.

One Person One Vote & Open PC Party Memberships 
By October 2006 eight candidates were in the running, including  (irony alert)  Lyle Oberg.  This Minister had been fired from Cabinet and suspended from the PC Caucus on March 22, before the dump Ralph party vote but ran for the leadership anyway.  Long-shot Ed Stelmach lead on preferential vote system by less that 500 votes but was the overwhelming second choice and beat the establishment candidate Jim Dinning by more than 12,000 votes in the end.

Stelmach
The three front runners, in perceived order of power, were Jim Dinning. Ted Morton and Ed Stelmach.  Dinning had support of 38 caucus member and three federal Conservatives.  Stelmach had 13 caucus member's on the first ballot and 6 more on the second.  Ted Morton, really a federal Reform Party and Canadian Alliance party member had one caucus member support him but the strong Reform Party grassroots machine to sell memberships.

Since May 27, 2011 the day Ed Stelmach resigned, and March 18, 2017, when Rachel Notley was elected, Alberta has had 6 Premiers.  All had majority governments but they hardly evidenced anything approximating certainty and stability in governance.

Redford
When Redford won the contest she, like Stelmach, came from behind and up the middle to win.  The contest was seen to be between an urban establishment candidate, Gary Mar, a rural establishment candidate, Doug Horner and, yet again, Ted Morton.  Mar held an impressive 41% of the first ballot vote.  Redford was a surprisingly in second place at 18.74% and Horner was a disappointing third with 14.55%.  Ted Morton was never really in this contest but garnered  11.73% for 4th place and was eliminated.

Redford was over 13,000 votes behind on the first ballot but won by a mere 1600 votes with overwhelming second ballot support.  She had only 1 caucus member supporting here on the first ballot and 5 more joined her for the second go round. whereas Gary Mar had 27 caucus member supporting him and 7 more came over on the second ballot.  Mar had been out of politics from 2007 representing the province in Washington D.C.  The rural establishment candidate Doug Horner had 14 caucus members behind him.

With such low caucus support and the influence of outsider "instant Tories" who bought PC memberships only to vote in the leadership, Redford had no clout as leader.  Her disappointing style and narcissistic style and overt sense of entitlement destroyed her leadership and she resigned on March 19, 2014 and gave up her seat in August 2014.

Prentice  & the Final Acts of the PC Passion Play
Dave Hancock was the unanimous caucus choice for interim leader until Jim Prentice won on September 6 2014 with the first ballot total of almost 18,000 votes while his combined opposition only garnered 5400 between them.  Prentice called an earl;y election for May 5, 2015, ignoring the PC's much vaunted fixed election law.  He lost badly to Rachel Notley and the NDP and resigned his seat even before this own riding results were counted.

Kenney Comes to  Alberta and the UCP is Born
For some inexplicable reason, Harper's political acolyte, Jason Kenney passed on he federal Conservative party leadership and moved in on the provincial Progressive Conservative Party leadership.  He was out to Unite the Right by purging the progressives from the PC party, taking it over as a conservative rump then consolidating with the Wildrose Party into a new "true" conservative party that he would lead to defeat the socialist NDP.  And he did with the political death of the PCAA, the Wildrose and the birth of the United Conservative Party.

On March 18, 2017 Kenney won the PCAA leadership on the first ballot with 1,113 supporters and 75.5% of the 1,476 total votes cast.  The other two candidates ran to keep the PCAA and rebuild it but to no avail.

In late July 2017 the PCAA and Wildrose membership held votes on forming the United Conservative Party.  IN both cases the decision was profound.

There was a turnout of 25,000 Wildrose members, representing 57% of total members  They overwhelming accepted the UCP option at 95.4%.  No one knows where the other 43% of Wildrose members stood on this because there was no comments from them at all.

The Progressive Conservative party had over 27,000 members participate and voted 95% in favour of the new united party.  That was a 55% turnout, again little if anything was heard from the 45% of PCAA members who stayed away from the unity vote.

A mere seven months later, on October 28, 2017, Kenney again won the UCP leadership on the first ballot with 61% leaving Brian Jean, the Wildrose candidate at 31.5, with the token progressive Doug Schweitzer at a mere 7.3% support.  Since then Messrs. Jean and Schweitzer have hardly been seen or heard of as Kenney purges the Brian Jean supporters from party operations, as he did with progressives in the PCAA.  He consolidates his power and turns the UCP into the KenneyCons.

Leadership Volatility Not Over Yet.
Every political Party in Alberta has a turnover in leadership.  Notley became NDP leader in October 2014 and lead them to majority government in May on 2015.

The Alberta Liberals elected David Khan as leader on June 5, 2017.  The Alberta Greens chose Romy Tittel as leader on November 4, 2017.

Greg Clark became Alberta Party leader in 2013 and was the longest serving party leader until he recently resigned.  He now leaves Notley as the longest serving provincial party leader at 3 years and 3 months at the time of writing.  The next rookie leader will be the Alberta Party who will take office on Feb 28th.

What Do We Do Now?
This brief  history Alberta's political leadership shows how we got to where we are today.  It illustrates just how volatile our political culture is and how the partisan fortunes and forces are shifting.  Notwithstanding perpetual majority governments political volatility is likely to continue into and through the next election.

Will it result in a minority government or will Albertans sustain the support for the NDP majority?  Are the unscientific political polls right and is the province about to shift to the ultra-right to a UCP majority?   Next post I will lay out some scenarios and speculate on what I think will happen...or at least could happen...and why.

Subscribe?
.  You might want to subscribe to this blog to get notice of new posts.  I will be doing a series of posts on Alberta politics beyond the horse race analysis. However I will do some analysis on the skills and policy positions of the three Alberta Party Candidates and share my views on what they bring to Alberta politics and the fortunes of the Alberta Party itself.

I will delve more into what the Alberta Aspiration should be and what we need to change so we can adapt and reach our potential.  I will explore the dangers of tired old-thinking mindset of those who say we should return to the antediluvian Alberta Advantage.  I will look at the risks associated with  the adversarial ideological left versus right bipolar politics we have today.  I will try to offer ideas and options and reasons for moderate progressive citizens to rethink their reasons and responsibilities  for political participation.  Stay tuned and come along for the ride.