IS KLEIN STILL BITTER-OR JUST STATING FACTS?

Former Premier Klein is on record with a Canadian Press story today saying if Premier Stelmach gets less than 70% support at the November 7 Progressive Conservative Party Leadership confidence review he should resign as Party Leader and therefor Premier.

If Premier Stelmach lacks the confidence of the PC Party delegates, Alberta could be into another leadership race early in the new year. I have commented on this in other posts that you can read here and here.

Mr. Klein was summarily dismissed by the PC Party in April 2006 when he lingered too long and the party faithful decided for him it was time for a change. That was after he he served leader of the party and the Province for 13 years. Klein may still be bitter but that is beside the point.

There are no laws or rules that dictate this situation but there are past experiences that set conventions. The conventional wisdom was set by Prime Minister Joe Clark in 1980. He was Prime Minister of Canada, leading a minority government that lost the confidence of the House on a Budget vote.

Clark put his party leadership on the line at a convention and got just under 70% support. He said that was not good enough and he resigned a party leader triggering a leadership review - which he lost to Brian Mulroney. Mulroney had been meeting secretly with supporters for months planning a coupe and a run at the party leadership just in such an event.

Conventional wisdom says anything under 70% support from party delegates and Premier Stelmach will need to resign and test his leadership with the entire PC Party and the people of Alberta with the one person - one vote leadership system the PC Party uses. Between 70 and 80% he will be seen as the walking wounded and can survive but with difficulty. Over 80% and he is safe.

The anxiety level is high going into the November 7th AGM confidence vote that some supporting MLAs to Premier Stelmach even suggested a show of hands confidence vote and not a secret ballot. Not a smart thing to do and it was quickly kiboshed.

The PC AGM vote is only one event creating growing uncertainty in the politics of the province. The first was the recent and devastating results of the Calgary Glenmore by-election. the next significant event will be the October 17th results of the Wildrose Alliance leadership. It will be important for three reasons, who wins, by what margin and what is the total voter turnout.

Then we have the PC AGM Leadership confidence vote on November 7th. The next serious leadership issue facing Premier Stelmach will be the Alberta consequences to the Copenhagen meetings on the world's reaction to climate change stating December 7th. The Alberta oilsands will be in the cross hairs of those global discussions and the consequences to Alberta will be a significant test of Premier Stelmach's leadership.

I have no prediction or insight as to what will happen in any of these pending events but Albertans better be aware of them because there is an incredible uncertainty about being Albertan these days.

What Messages Did Premier Ed Get From the Calgary Glenmore By Election?

It has been over a week since Premier Stelmach executed his much rumoured and much anticipated Cabinet shuffle. It was not much of a shuffle, more of a minor, one portfolio expansion of the Cabinet.

When former Deputy Premier Ron Stevens left politics for the Bench Premier Stelmach wisely assumed the International and Intergovernmental Affairs portfolio in his own office. Stelmach used to serve in that Ministry and knows the files. He also knows the IIA function is become essentially a glorified Parliamentary Assistant to the Premier's office. So it only makes sense governance wise and for fiscal prudence to reduce his cabinet by one and for the Premier to be the International and Intergovernmental face for the province.

So it is interesting that we saw the appointment of Len Webber as the new Minister. Len Webber is a good guy and I am sure he is capable of fulfilling the Parliamentary Assistant to the Premier function of this Ministry. This appointment had nothing to do with good governance of fiscal prudence. It was pure regional appeasement politics that pushed this appointment. It is more Calgary appeasement by the Stelmach PCs who looking for love in all the wrong places.

WHAT WAS THE MESSAGE SENT FROM CALGARY GLENMORE?

The key messages gleaned from the PCs enormous loss of the Calgary Glenmore by election is the recession is hurting and Albertans are grumpy with the spending plans of the province. It had nothing to do with the perceptions of the leadership capacities of the Premier or his office whatsoever. It was the good folks of Calgary Glenmore send a fiscal message only.

I don't think the Stelmach government is reading all the signs. They are practicing and perfecting selective listening. We have experiences a relatively light recession in Alberta compared to Canada and the planet. We have cash to cover the deficit. We have the "luxury" of not having to raise taxes for at last 2 years. We have unemployment at about 7.2%. In "normal" times 6% unemployment is considered full employment by economists. So Alberta is in a recession but it is not a dire as many of the past.

We have a natural gas revenue hit caused by low commodity prices between $4 and $5B but that is not enough to account for the almost $15B swing from last years estimate of $8B surplus and a $7B deficit one year later. We Albertans have not been shown how that math really works. I hope it is not more political messaging to manipulate expectations instead of actual accountability and authentic transparency.

So what. The "official government" key message and speaking points response to the wildly successful Wildrose Alliance campaign slogan of "Send Ed a Message is the recession and there is too much government spending. So the question for the Premier and his brain trust is what to do? The answer is clear. Shift to the right, fiscally and socially. Spend less and a lot less, right now.

Go ahead a break trusts by clawing back prior social infrastructure promises, especially in the vulnerable social service sector. They don't vote and if they did, they don't vote Tory anyway. One thing for sure, in a perpetual appeasement to Calgary elites we can't risk alienating the energy industry millionaire masters of the universe types, especially in times of recession.

WHAT WAS THE MESSAGE RECEIVED FROM CALGARY GLENMORE?

The real evidence of a fundamental (sic) social policy shift is in the other appointments made concurrently with Len Webber's ascending into Cabinet. Look at the rewards given to the social conservative gang that promoted and won the battle to pass their beloved Bill 44. This is even more disturbing and profound evidence of the social repositioning of the Stelmach government to the right. I suggest the far right. This is an exercise in social conservative appeasement but there is some overtones of more Calgary Appeasement as a beneficial by-election by product.

The elevation of rookie MLA Jonathan Denis to Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Energy puts a socially conservative Calgary face on the portfolio. Jono and I are Facebook Friends and follow each other on Twitter. [We are @JonoMLA and @KenChapman46 on Twitter if you want to follow us.] I find him to be an intelligent and civil debater as we arm wrestle in the social media. He may prove to be a very capable guy and deserves the benefit of the doubt. But there is not doubt of is social conservative credentials as one of the front men on Bill 44.

Side note: Jono beat the ultra social conservative Craig Chandler who ran as an Independent in the 2008 election after winning the PC nomination but Stelmach refused to sign his paper. Mr. Chandler is now the power and behind Mark Dynholm's bid to lead the Wildrose Alliance Party.

Next is Broyce Jacobs as Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister Agriculture and Rural Development. Mr. Jacobs is and was the MLA from Cardston. He lost to Paul Hinman in 2004 but beat him in 2008. Remember it was Hinman who parachuted into Calgary Glenmore and trounced the local high profile PC candidate in the by election this month. Elevating him also sends a message to Albertans with a strong fundamentalist faith base that they have a voice right into the provincial political power structure.

Next we have the evidence of the social and fiscal shift to the right in the new appointments to key Cabinet committees. Adding Lindsay Blackett to Agenda and Priorities is a reward for a job well done on pushing through Bill 44 in the face of serious, vocal and broadly based public opposition.

There seems to be soap-opera around the selection of rookie Rob Anderson to the all powerful Treasury Board. Rob is apparently a fiscal hawk and was the face of Bill 44 to the social conservative element in the caucus and in the PC party. His appointment is clearly a reward for his Bill 44 efforts and success.

The soap opera element is the apparent political punishment of Kyle Fawcett, another social conservative Bill 44 caucus promoter. Kyle, a Calgary rookie MLA, had the temerity to say the equivalent of Premier had no clothes in his analysis of the messages coming out of the Calgary Glenmore by election. See the blog post of Don Braid, provincial affairs columnists for the Calgary Herald for details.

All of this is a symbolic sign to those former PC supporters who abandoned the party and voted Wildrose Alliance in Calgary Glenmore. The Premier is showing off his social conservative bench strength and trying to convince So-con swing voters that their concerns will be dealt with from now on by his government. He is trying to show those folks that he got that message. I think that message has come through loud and clear since the last election.

That puts the progressives in the PC party on notice that they are marginalized. I think it may prove that the progressives int eh PC party will be even more marginalized than in the darkest days of the Klein regime. Time will tell.

Wildrose Alliance Invites Bloggers to Their Leadership Convention

My hat is off to Jane Morgan the Executive Director of the Wildrose Alliance Party of Alberta. I recently made a suggestion to her on Twitter that bloggers should be accredited media at their leadership convention in Edmonton on October 17, 2009. Almost immediately she responded - and favourably to the idea. OnTwitter she is @wildrosejane and I am @kenchapman46 if you want to follow us.


Her blog is "Up Close and Personal With Jane." Here is her recent blog post on the point and accepting the challenge. I am returning from out of the country the day before the event but I plan to be there and posting on my impressions from the floor of the WAP convention. I expect others more adept at social media than me will be live blogging the results in real time. There will be quite a few of us political bloggers who will take up the invitation and be posting from the floor of the convention.


Some tweets have expressed concern about allowing "overly partisan bloggers who are strong supporters of other parties" into the WAP convention. I understand the angst at one level but in reality, we will be blogging anyway. By not being there we will not have the advantage and responsibility of accountability that come with actually being there. The fact that bloggers of any and all stripes will be there in person will add authenticity and authority to the social media dialogue that will happen.


I also applaud Jane for also saying that no anonymous bloggers will be allowed. That will add to the accountability and responsibility of the bloggers who post about the WAP leadership. That does not mean blogger's nom-de-plumes can't be used, just that the real name of the blogger has to be published too. Putting the real name of registered bloggers on the WAP website would solve that identity and political perspective problem for readers. This way readers will be able to judge the content, context and credibility of the bloggers...critically important stuff in a vibrant dialogue on policy and politics in the province.


This initiative will be good for the credibility of the WAP. It frames them as an open and accountable party who are demonstrating a commitment to free speech and supporting serious citizen engagement in politics. They also get enormous amounts of free publicity and new media coverage that will be more fact based and biases (like mine) more exposed as well.


Now I wonder if my party, the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta will do the same thing at its November Annual General Meeting in Red Deer. That is when the party delegates will have a confidence vote on Premier Stelmach's leadership. Again the blogosphere and the social media will be alive with commentary in any event. It would be better if the citizen journalists who want to attend the AGM could do so and write their posts in real time from the actual event itself. But again lets not allow anonymous bloggers into the event and lets post the names and URLs of the registered bloggers on the Party website for all to see. Anonymous bloggers will still write stuff but readers can discount their commentary because they don't know if the source is informed and trustworthy.


Yes the bloggers at the PC Party AGM and the WAP Leadership Convention will be looking for interviews with party members and delegates in attendance. Yes they will be asking the key questions about perceptions of Premier Stelmach's performance as party leader and who should lead the WAP and why. Yes there will be biases in the blogging. But there will also be a wide array of bloggers and postings, not all of them supportive of the "host" political parties. That again is the essence of free speech, freedom of association and the price any political party should be prepared to pay as part of it role to promoting a dynamic, vibrant democracy in Alberta.


The old days of controlling the content, context and timing of political messaging is gone. Now it is about the Internet based conversation that happens within social, political, economic and environmental networks of concerned citizens. These exchanges of ideas and opinions are in the open, unfiltered and unmediated by traditional one-way messaging of the conventional news sources.

Political parties are pretty much private clubs, with too much power, in my humble opinion. Anyone can join but few do because they are seen by the general population as closed and constricting. To include and accept social media, and bloggers in particular, into the media mix of such political and partisan events will open them up to scrutiny and accountability but how can that be a bad thing for democracy?


So I applaud Jane Morgan and the Wildrose Alliance Party. Congratulations for having the courage and taking the initiative to be open and accountable as a political institution. Kudos too for being nimble enough to see and accept the new media reality of the 21st century. It can only be a good thing for your organization and for politics in Alberta.

It's Not About Boutilier - It's About Politics and Leadership

Political leadership, particularly when in government, has three key elements. There is the party leadership, caucus leadership and the government leadership. They are all different but they are significantly overlapping elements that together determine the effectiveness of modern political leadership.

Premier Stelmach's government leadership is legally and technically secure for at least three years until the next election. Given that timing and his impressive majority government in the last election plus the enormous political powers of the Premier's office as head of state, Stelmach is pretty secure, at least technically and conventionally.


Stelmach has just confirmed and consolidated his caucus leadership with his unilateral, fast and furious firing of the backbencher Guy Boutilier. Boutilier built his political bed and the caucus knows it. They concur with the Premier's conclusions and support his actions. Boutilier, while appearing to merely represent his constituency, which is his right and his duty, his timing and technique was off as a government MLA and member of Treasury Board. He left Stelmach no choice but to expel him from the PC caucus. I expect a strong caucus backing for the Premier's decision. It will not be out of fear for future reprisals but rather for better teamwork and better policy execution in what will be difficult times ahead.


On the other hand, Stelmach's governing leadership is being actively questioned on the streets all over Alberta. It is mostly happening in Calgary and led by energy sector executives but there are others who are also grumbling and rumbling about him too. The Calgary based energy sector seems to have made it their mission to undermine the Premier, allegedly over royalties, but their angst goes deeper. It goes all the way back to Stelmach's "surprise" winning of the PC Party leadership over Jim Dinning. Dinning was the Calgary choice for heir apparent to the Premiership. That never happened and some of the Calgary elite have never gotten over it.


Now we come to party leadership. Here is where members of the PC Party of Alberta get to rate Stelmach and relay a message to their party leader. It could be good, bad and even ugly. We have no idea today what the outcome will be. This party leadership evaluation will not be done without serious consideration of all the duties and responsibilities Stelmach has as Premier. So frustrations will be tempered by reality when the vote happens.

Like politicians, political party influentials also want to retain political power. Winning elections for rabid political partisans is not everything, it is the only thing. Indications are that the party faithful were pleased with the Premier's performance at the recent Policy Conference. A good sign. However a recent poll however has shown no growth in the Premier's support since the last election and some surprising softness in rural Alberta. If winning is the only thing how will that desire drive the decision about Stelmach's party leadership performance in the climate of an AGM, not a policy conference?


Policy conferences attract a different kind of partisan political animal than show up at AGMs. Policy wonks are interested in talking and exploring ideas, political processes and governance issues - forever! They are often more interested in getting the governing right and forget the need to get the right to govern thing done first. AGMs, on the other hand, attracts a more red meat kind of partisan player. These are folks who are more interested in the power of politics and being ready for the next big political fight. They want to do what it takes to win elections. Leadership is job #1 for achieving that goal for any political party.

The PC Party Constitution requires that its leader be subjected to what is essentially a confidence vote at the next AGM after each election - win or lose. That vote will happen at the November AGM in Red Deer. I think there is good reason to be concerned about the final outcome. Who will show and how will they vote? What issues or concerns will be on their minds as they "evaluate" the Premier as the leader of their party? Will we have pooled political ignorance or collective reflective wisdom in determining the outcome? What pressures will be brought to bear on party members leading up to the process? There is a lot at stake this November no matter how you look at it.


Ralph Klein, much to his surprise, was turfed as leader of the PC Party at one of these AGM evaluation votes. If Ed Stelmach suffers the same fate will we be back into a PC leadership race for the Premiership of the province as soon as spring of 2010? Will we be in a federal election at that time too? What will an early leadership campaign do to the PC political brand and the confidence Albertans? Will Albertans be happy with another chance to select a Premier - or not? What will be the impact on the economy? Will a lack of strong support for the Premier cause investment uncertainty and will it prolong the recession? Or will the party decide that another change is necessary and will they cause it to happen, sooner than later? Damn the consequences!

So I think Premier Stelmach's caucus leadership is well in hand. Government leadership is always a work in progress and the record so far is mixed. But the party leadership is also in play. It may have a serious negative impact on the other two political leadership realms, especially if the party evaluation of the Premier goes badly. Even a tepid support for the Premier's party leadership in November will damage the Premier, the party and the province. I expect a full court press from the PC caucus to encourage PC party members to show up and indicate their strong support Stelmach's party leadership in November and that will start in earnest by mid September.


There a hundreds of critical questions facing the future of Alberta. But make no mistake about the importance of the PC Party leadership results. That may determine much of the future for the province. This November in Red Deer is when a small group of Albertans, who just happen to be members of the PC Party, will show up at their Annual General Meeting. They will take a vote and they will make a very important decision. They will have the power to impact the entire future of the province.

It all depends on how they express their confidence in Premier Stelmach in a secret ballot vote. That all depends on how they feel about Premier Stelmach's overall leadership performance at the time. That enormous power is in the hands of a small group of citizens who belong to what is essentially private club, namely the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta.

November is a long way off and lots can happen. The 100 days between now and November is an eternity in politics. Let's hope for the best but lets not presume anything between now and then. There is much at stake for all Albertans, not just the political partisans. The outcome of the PC Party AGM vote on the party leadership this November will dramatically impact the entire province - regardless of the final results. Scary eh?

Stelmach Boots Boutilier Out of Caucus

So Boutilier was bounced out of caucus by the Premier. Quel surprise! What are we as citizens to read into all of this? What is the real motivation behind this move by the Premier?

Is it an internal party and caucus matter only? Is it a bigger issue about representative democracy versus leadership dominated politics? Is it about being a unified team (aka message mouthing sheep) as a governing party apparatus? Is it personal to Boutilier, since he has a very checkered political record and has not a very effective Cabinet level politician anyway. Could it be the last straw about Boutilier that goes all the way back to his questionable intervention while serving as Minister of the Environment and his ill-advised direct testimony "as an MLA" in a regulatory hearing on a Suncor oilsand project? Could it be because he supported Oberg in the leadership? Could it be all those thing...and more?

I'm betting all of that and more is behind Premier Stelmach last straw decision with the political future of Guy Boutilier as a Progressive Conservative. I expect Boutilier will be courted by the Wildrose Alliance and his Independent status will not last too long as he seek revenge by sitting as a WRAP MLA. Boutilier was one of the few caucus members to support "Ralph can't fire me because I know where the skeletons are buried" Lyle Oberg in his leadership bid for the Progressive Conservative Party.

Oberg you will remember besmirched the entire PC caucus with those comments. In a stroke of political theatrical brilliance Klein had the PC caucus expel Oberg from their ranks. Klein stayed "above the fray" and rightly so because Oberg's skeleton remarks insulted every other PC MLA in the caucus. Boutilier has only targeted the Minister of Health and since Stelmach made that appointment, the Boutilier challenge is directly at the Premier too. Stelmach picked up Guy's gauntlet and was a one-man bomb disposal crew as he personally dumped Guy from the PC caucus.

As for Guy, he got was was coming to him. It was incumbent on the Premier to fire him under the circumstances. I am all for more open debate and public discussion by governing MLAs on public policy but Boutilier was over the line and was asking for the obvious political consequences. It is entirely appropriate for an MLA to push politically for your constituency needs but it is about time, place and technique.

The timing tone and content of Boutilier's criticism of the Minister of Health and the personalization of his media comments, like accusing the Minister of "gibberish", went over the line. Stelmach has no choice but to boot him. Boutilier wants to talk to caucus who he implies are his "accusers." That was a request appropriately denied by Stelmach. The Premier is Boutilier's accuser and Stelmach is rightly in his rights as Boutiler's political nemesis. Stelmach has spoken on the issue of Boutilier's future with the PC caucus with great clarity. There is none! Move on!

Boutilier is no hero, nor is he an innocent victim, nor is he a martyr in this medieval morality play of partisan politics. He is merely a guy who doesn't get it and is quite frankly very late into the game of constituency representative democracy. For years he fiddled and frittered while his constituency, Wood Buffalo and particularly Fort McMurray, burned with growth pressures, infrastructure shortfalls and enormous safety and social crisis.

There are no winner is this embarrassment for all ofus who are of a PC persuasion - from the Premier down to mere members like myself. There are lots of loser however. The good folks of the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo still have serious social, growth, infrastructure, safety and capacity problems. Now they have nobody in the critical government caucus meetings to keep them up keep up to date on what is really happening that impacts them. They are the big losers in all of this. Their continuing efforts to respond to these enormous challenges for their unique and hard pressed community are caught hard in these recessionary times. We now have many more Alberta communities facing challenges just like Fort McMurray. But that does not solve the problem nor fix the consequences of the systemic neglect inherent in the Fort McMurray reality of over two decades of gold rush growth in the oil sands.

Stelmach has done the only thing the partisan political circumstances allow him to do. He had to turf Boutilier, and for so many reasons. In the hothouse of partisan politics it was a decision that is totally justified. This result is more attributed to Boutilier's doing than Stelmach's. It is not a situation that enables a more enlightened discussion about presenting a more open and representative democracy. It is all about asserting leaderhisp in a climate that is all about raw power in politics. Guy played his hand and was trumped by ht ePremier. That trick is over but the game goes on. Guy, however, is no longer at the table and will no longer be dealt any political cards by the Stelmach government.

As for a better governance model, we have nothing to learn or applaud from the travesty of these recent events. It is time for citizens to act like owners of the oil sands, the water, the land, the air and the democracy that makes up Alberta. It is too serious a situation to leave to petty politics and partisan infighting...regardless of your political persuasion. Without a re-engagement in politics by Albertan these events will rule, become the norm and everyone loses. Please tell me citizens of Alberta that your sense of being Albertan and you sense of shared and personal responsibility for this place is greater than indicated by these offensive events.

I hope the lessons for Albertans is such that they will re-engage in the political culture of their province. Politics stinks because you and I have abdicated our shared responsibility and have allowed it to rot.

Let's Not Squander This Recession but Use it to Revisit the Role of Government.

There are other elements to consider around the recent declaration by Premier Stelmach that there will be no tax increases on his watch. Deficits are also tax increases by other means because the pain is deferred to the future - usually to be repaid on someone else's watch. So it is arguable that running a deficit is a defacto tax increase just not on the current watch.


But there are other considerations too. The tobacco tax was not a money grab, it was a health promotion and prevention issue behind the tax increase last April. The research shows that more expensive smokes are and the less visible they are - like the elimination of the "power wall" displays, the less likely kids will start and get addicted to tobacco. There is also a health prevention argument around the liquor tax. Eliminating them both government reduces revenues to offset deficits (tax increases by other means) and increases the social and health risks associated with these legal but sometimes lethal products. I am not a prohibitionist just a realist.


The last additional point I think is worth noting about eliminating the revenue side from the fiscal took box of government is the issue of the role, efficiency and effectiveness of government. The old Klein approach of simple-minded across the board cuts and damn the consequences is not likely to be the Stelmach approach this time. However, there may be stuff government can do without, stuff we can do better and other stuff that needs doing particularly in a prolonged recession like we are in these days. This is the time to do that kind of revisiting and revamping of the relationships and roles we expect from government.


This recession is a perfect opportunity to revisit and redesign the role of government and our relations to it, as business, service providers and citizens. We can improve delivery and be clearer on what we expect of the public sector and our governance model. We can retool the private enterprise sector and community based social service sector too. The goal is not just efficiency, as important as that is, but it must be more focused on the effectiveness of the outcomes and how we achieve them using government as a vehicle.


This is a quest for better questions as much as it is better answers. We have the Governance Secretariat looking at these matters focused on agencies boards and commissions. We need the same thing to happen in the link between government and the social services sector and the private enterprise sector too.


Lets not squander this recession. Let's make sure we come out of it better focused, better equipped and better able to meet the challenges in the 21st century realities. It would be such a waste of an opportunity. We can't merely try to revive, restore and sustain the inadequate governance, economic, environmental, social and technological models of the past.


Premier Stelmach is hinting at this approach in some follow up comments to his no recent tax increase declaration. Lets hope he makes it more explicit and actionable.

Stelmach Premier's Council for Economic Strategy is a Smart and Timely Move.

It is a positive and profound move by the Stelmach government tap into some great minds and invite some fresh thinking into the future of Alberta. The Premier's Council for Economic Strategy differs significantly from the Klein era efforts in the Growth and Future Summits. Both events produced some worthwhile and interesting outcomes. But there was no real political will in those day to pursue anything forward thinking. It was all about reducing deficits and debt as fast as possible. The future would have to take care of itself as we focused only on the present fiscal agenda of the province in the Klein days.


I think the current Stelmach initiative is a forcus on foresight and that is significantly different. First it is intentional whereas the Klein efforts were mostly damage control or political response arising from musing of the former Premier. Second I assume there is positive political will to pursue the possibilities that will emerge from the PCES. Finally, the participant in the Stelmach process are past being impressive they are accomplished but also wise in the ways of the larger world and the changes that are bearing down on all of us.

There are 12 members of the PCES and they are all noteworthy and accomplished people with a range of expertise and a depth of experiences. Two PCES participants that are particularly impressive are Sir John Bell (Oxford and Stanford) and Juan Enriquez (Harvard) who are deeply involved in genetics and genomics but in very different ways. These are not the conventional kinds of minds one would by default apply to pondering the future of Alberta given their backgrounds. That is exactly why they are impressive appointees to the PCES.

I have met Juan Enriquez and been exposed to is fertile and curious mind over lunch and in other conversations. I have to admit I am very impressed with anyone who presents at a TED Conference and Juan has done so many times on a range of topics. A YouTube search of Juan Enriquez will give you a sampling of this man's mind.

Alberta is poised for a new era and ought to be leading toward that new era. We have an educated, diverse, young, healthy and prosperous population. We are sitting on the largest reserve of fossil fuel energy resources on the planet along with a stable government and easy access to the American market. Hewers of wood and drawers of water are not sustainble economic nor environmental presumptions for Alberta's future any more.

In the past this energy sector success has lead us to only consider the low hanging fruit of conventional oil and gas development. With the move to oil sands development and the synthetic oil and now synthetic natural gas coming from coal deposits we have potential for some adaptive foresight opportunities for the province. There are social and environmental consequences to growth as we have seen particularly form the last boom. A more integrated, full cost accounting and longterm lifecycle view has to become the new norm for defining progress and prosperity for Alberta.

What is also needed to secure a prosperous future for Alberta is a new mindset. That means we need to explore options beyond energy and options to look at energy in a new way, including new markets in addition to the Americans. A prime option for a new mindset about markets and opportunities is for Alberta to look seriously at India. My business partner, Satya Das, recently wrote a paper on the potential for an Alberta-India alliance you will find interesting.

I am very encouraged by the formation and composition of Premier Stelmach's Council for Economic Strategy. I am even more encouraged by its mandate to seek out and "develop ideas to ensure Alberta's continued prosperity and quality of life over the next three decades."

I see this initiative as a new pioneering spirit designed for the new times we are facing and about to face as a province. I plan to revisit the Growth and Future Summit reports but only for some background and context of past thinking. What we need is new thinking that may even be foreign to the typical Albertan consciousness. That is what I hope to see for the PCES and with men like Bell and Enriquez on board I am pretty confident that will happen.

Beware and Be Aware of the Political Back Story at the Calgary Stampede

The Calgary Stampede is in full swing and so is the political back story that happens concurrently with the midway, rodeo, pancakes, BBQ and bull riding. The Stampede time has a serious political dimension too. It is when the Alberta and Canadian political class converge on Calgary to party but also to position, plan and even posture a bit. The eastern political leaders like Ignatieff and Layton and May show ostensibly to show they value, "get" and embrace the west.

Many goofball pictures of out-of-character "city slicker" eastern politicians costumed up in in urban cowboy gear "grace" the pages of the newspapers and television newscasts over the years. Ironically no such picture as been so devastating as Calgary's own Stephen Harper for showing laughable unauthentic caricatures. My guess is shortly after that Harper hired a wardrobe and image consultant on the taxpayer dime.

Where politicians gather so will political consultants, lobbyists and various hangers-on and fast-track Wanna-Be's. The vast array of Stampede BBQ and breakfasts are meet and greet/grab and grin gabfests in the good old fashioned tradition of politics. There are other events that are more serious politically and they are mostly behind closed door meetings with, between and amongst the politicians go have made the pilgrimage to Calgary this week.

There are lots of private events and meetings with lobbyists and government relations consultants representing various special interests and politicians. But these meetings happen all the time and are simply part of Canadian political culture. Full disclosure, this is part of the work that I do professionally. I just never did it at the Stampede, at least not yet.

The more interesting political meetings will be the pure political events amongst politicians themselves. They are the joint Federal and Alberta caucus meeting and the Alberta Caucus Meeting on Monday. There are lots of Alberta-Canada complex political and critical policy issues in play between Ottawa and Edmonton. It seems, from an Alberta perspective, that there is no difference as to who is in power in Ottawa. Ottawa is still Ottawa even with a Conservative government in both jurisdictions. Shared partisanship seems to be irrelevant to finding effective resolutions on fed-prov issues and on US-Canada relations that impact Alberta.

In fact it is Michael Ignatieff, the Liberal, who seems more in tune and in touch with Alberta's aspirations. He is more informed and focused on our issues these days than Harper the Calgary Conservative. Will it make a difference in the forthcoming federal election? Who knows but Ignatieff's overt support for responsible oil sands development and insight into the Alberta angst and our importance to the country are being noticed in this province.

To be a fly on the joint Fed-Prov caucus meeting would be great fun. It would also be informative about where Harper sees his power and purpose in the months leading up to an inevitable election. Will we know what was said and what was the atmosphere in the room? Not likely. There will be media measured platitudes and strict speaking notes of having frank discussions and both sides having a better understanding of the issues and a mutual commitments to seek satisfactory solutions Blah, Blah, Blah.

The other critical political meeting that happens in Stampede week is the Alberta PC Caucus meeting. This is the real start of the next budget cycle. They get a serious sense of where things are at, what is happening in the province in a kind of SWOT analysis (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats). Some preliminary policy and political objectives are usually set at this caucus meeting. General guidelines are determined for the administration to start the next budget cycle and the next years fiscal/policy/planning process starts as a result of this PC Caucus meeting. The whole thing will start to gel at the Cabinet and Caucus retreats in the Fall when the administration comes back with their budget and policy suggestions for the government for the coming fiscal year.

So tomorrow the Alberta government process about the fiscal and policy planning for the province starts. Ever since the retreat from the royalty review recommendations, the province as become more and more strategically incoherent. Lets hope tomorrow they find their footing and start to figure out a consistent, comprehensive and comprehensible path forward for Alberta. It will not be easy in these uncertain time, but it will necessary for the people of this province to continue to enjoy a high quality of living in economic, social and environmental terms.

The Rocky Road to the Repeal of Bill 44 Provisions in The Alberta Human Rights Act.

What is Next for Bill 44 Provision in Alberta Human Rights Act?
The frequency and volume of political commentary about passing The Alberta Human Rights Act (AHRA) that adopted the Bill 44 opting out provisions will diminish over the next few months. It is summer after all. The reality of the consequences of this ill-advised and ill-conceived law will come once the Act is proclaimed and becomes the actual law of the land.


There are some unrest and rumblings within the Progressive Conservative Party rank and file against Bill 44 provisions in the AHRA. I also hear some in the PC Party are trying to stifle and suppress any continuing talk about Bill 44, presuming it will be forgotten over time. I don't think that will be the case given the anger I have seen expressed over this bad politics and poor governance decision. That approached worked in a pre-Internet world but it will not work now.


There are a few moves afoot within some PC Party constituencies to submit a resolution for repeal of the opting out provisions for debate the AGM in November 2009. I am all for that and hope it happens but there are many hurdles to jump to make that a reality. Here is a sense of what it would take and what it would mean for the PC Party to debate the repeal of the opting out provisions of the AHRA at the next AGM.


The PC Party is not the PC Government.
First, if must be clearly understood that whatever the PC Party decides is not binding on the Stelmach government. The PC Party is just another political special interest group. It is not the government. I served on the PC Party Policy Committee for years but over a decade ago. I had a constant fight with the Reform/Alliance wing members who did not grasp the difference between the government and the policy proposals of the political party that supported it. Grassroots run deep with old-time Reformers.


Sometimes process is everything so here is how it works, as I understand it. I checked the process and it is essentially the same as in my day in dealing with Party Resolutions at AGMs. Here is a link to the PC Party website for the actual constituency resolution process, if you are interested.

The PC Party debates Resolutions at every AGM from submissions made by individual constituency organizations. Each constituency can submit two resolutions. The first one (the "A" Resolution) will always be debated. While the second one (the "B" Resolution) may not be debated because of time constraints. If there are duplicates of resolutions they are combined and only one is debated. Some resolutions are declined because the don't deal with provincial jurisdiction or they are too vague or too local in nature.


A group of Regional Directors and constituency level VPs of Policy, all as party volunteers, will do the vetting of the resolutions received. The A and B Resolutions are dealt with first come first served and up to 6 minutes of debate is provided for each one. Then any party member in the room can vote on the Resolution on a show of hands. Open transparent and fair to my mind.


Those Resolutions that get support from the membership are submitted to the government as information and advice. The government caucus then considers them and responds to the Party on each one, in writing. The government's responses range from agreement to disagreement and everything in between and often includes a reporting on the status and progress on resolutions and related issues.


Will the PC AGM Debate a Repeal Resolution?
So what will it take to get the AHRA provisions of Bill 44 to be debated as a Resolution at the November PC Party AGM? The first step is for a local party constituency organization to draft an appropriate proposed resolution and then decide as a local Board to submit it to the AGM.


That first step has already been done by the Edmonton Whitemud PC Constituency but there is a wrinkle. My information is the Bill 44 Repeal Resolution from Whitemud was a tie vote for second place - a "B" Resolution. The constituency apparently has decided to submit three resolutions rather than break the tie for the B resolution. It is an interesting development because the Repeal Resolution it will at best be a "B" Resolution and it risks not being debated due to time constraints. That has never happened in my experience in dealing with Party Resolutions, but it is a possibility, and in politics if it is possible anything can happen so nothing should surprise us.


Here are some interesting "What Ifs." What if in the initial Party vetting process they cull one of the two Whitemud B resolutions because only two Resolutions are allowed. Would the Bill 44 resolution be the one culled? The resolution vetting process could more likely send the two B resolutions back to Whitemud and require them to break the tie and will that happen or will they settle on only submitting an "A" Resolution?

If at the party organizational level, they decided to cull the only Repeal Resolution on such a technicality, I expect progressives in the PC Party would either revolt against the Party Executive or just leave the party. My money is on the Party going back to the Whitemud constituency and making them break the tie vote. So much uncertainty still prevails.


This could be avoided if another PC Constituency organization were to submit an "A" Resolution to recommend repeal of the AHRA opting out provisions. To date that has not happened but it might. I think it should happen for the sake of the PC Party itself but there appears to be some of nervous nellies who help run the party. They clearly want this to go away so all this Bill 44 controversy would just disappear somehow.


Some Serious Political Implications Around a Repeal Resolution
Here are some of the political implications for the PC Party, the PC government and progressive Albertans emerging from these various scenarios. If there is a Resolution for the Repeal of the AHRA opting out provisions debated at the AGM, and it passes, the Stelmach government can reconsider its policy and move to repeal the provisions. It can also say no, that is a done deal and they can refuse to reconsider. That is their option as our government but there will be repercussions in the PC Party and the PC government either way.


If such a Resolution is defeated by the PC Party membership then there will be soul searching in the progressive membership ranks of the PC Party considering if this party is still viable as their political "home." Who knows if or when that will happen. The party progressives I have talked to about Bill 44 know there is no other political party for them to go where they feel comfortable and believe they could be effective. The question then is will they join the other 60% of disengaged Albertans or pursue something different to express their political philosophy and aspirations for Alberta? Will the "Alberta Citizen Cynicism" party gets thousands more non-voters?


There are Implication for Progressives.
There is another more subtle but even more significant potential implication coming out of how the PC Party handles a Resolution to repeal AHRA opting out provisions. If they never received such a resolution from a constituency then local constituency ennui or angst against "rocking the boat" gets the Party off the hook. But that does not resolve the larger political issue, namely the anger amongst all the progressive Albertans who are still angry over the unnecessary Bill 44 optioning out provisions in the AHRA.

If no PC constituency organization has the courage and conviction to submit a repeal resolution for debate at the AGM I expect most progressive PC members will drift away from the party and be missing in action in the next election. The non-partisan Alberta progressives will decide to actively campaign against the PC Party in preparation for the next election. We are seeing the tip of that iceberg as evidenced in the wave of social media and traditional media commentary on the appropriateness of some recent personal comments made in public by Iris Evans and Doug Elniski. The PC Party and the PC government can expect more of this kind of scrutiny and aggressive response from now on - regardless of any AGM debate or its outcome.


If the Party receives a submission but tries to subvert the AGM debate of a repeal resolution I will expect to see progressive party members getting more vocal and deciding in droves to be no shows at the November AGM meeting. I can't see that subversion happening but it is politics and anything can happen. If it did happen I would be more disappointed than surprised. The likely unintended consequences are that the majority of PC party members who will "show up" at the AGM (and who will likely be encouraged to show up) will be those social conservatives on the far right of the party who tend to support Ted Morton.

There are Potential Implications for the Stelmach Leadership too.
Under those circumstances, a really significant political turn of events from the Bill 44 fiasco, that could happen at this November AGM. That is a potential threat to Premier Stelmach's continuing leadership of the PC Party. The PC Party Constitution requires that the Leader to face a confidence vote at the first AGM following an election - win or lose. That is how the Party sent a message to Ralph Klein that it was time for him to go a few years back. Ralph lingered as Leader, but the Party told him, in a vote of no uncertain terms, that he was past his best before date. He was gone!

PC Party Leader Ed Stelmach has to face a similar leadership confidence vote of party members at the November AGM.


What if the party "faithful" who show up at the AGM are predominantly social conservatives because they are emboldened by Bill 44? What if the the progressives stay home because the are discouraged by Bill 44? Could this be the "perfect storm" for the far right to give Premier Stelmach a low vote of support? What level of low support would seriously undermine his continuing leadership? What if his support is low enough, like Klein's 55% support? Will he have a backbench revolt of social conservatives that demand another leadership race? Will we be into a PC leadership contest for a new Alberta Premier sooner than we thought or even wished for? What will such uncertainty do to the Alberta economy and any recovery from the recession?


This is what can happen when internal partisan political expediency is preferred over good governance - like in the case of the Bill 44 fiasco. Bill 44 issues will be quiet over the summer but they will be front and centre again in the fall. Stay tuned. It promises to be interesting, unnerving, disappointing and even devastating, depending on your perspective.

Will the PC Party Pursue the Repeal of Bill 44 Opting-Out Provisions?

It is a dreary rainy Friday afternoon in Edmonton but a ray of public policy sunshine is coming through. Yesterday there was the start of a move within the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta to repeal the opting-out portions of what was Bill 44. It is now the Alberta Human Rights Act since Third Reading early Tuesday morning and it received Royal Assent on June 4th. It is not law until it is Proclaimed but that can happen at any Cabinet Meeting.

The political fallout of the Progressive Conservative government passing this ill-conceived poorly drafted and socially destructive law has not gone unnoticed, including by some other progressives in the Progressive Conservative Party - at least at the local constituency level. The Whitemud Constituency Executive are taking a recommendation to the Board in mid June seeking approval that they present a Resolution to the PC Party AGM in November to deal with the offensive provisions of Bill 44, now the Alberta Human Rights Act.

I understand the Resolution will be intended to deal with the parental opting out provisions of the Human Right Act that focus on education and teaching issues religion, human sexuality and sexual orientation. This Bill was a solution looking for a problem. The School Act had opting out provisions that worked well for 20 years. These options did not need to be expanded and extended into the Human Rights complaint and litigation process against teachers and school trustees. But the Stelmach government in its "wisdom" has done just that...and without any consultation or even advanced notice to anyone involved. Breathtakingly bad governance in a modern and mature representative democracy.

I was at the Edmonton Glenora PC Constituency meeting last night and they decided to do a Policy Resolution to the November AGM as well. I suggested a repeal of the opting out provisions. What will happen in Glenora is three proposed resolutions will be presented to the Board and the one receiving the most votes will go forward for consideration at the AGM. That will be an interesting exercise in local level political party democracy. I will keep you posted.

These Resolutions from the Progressive Conservative Party membership are not binding on the government. They are merely advice and input just like any other special interest group. Sometimes the advice is the result of a collective wisdom. Sometimes it is just pooled Ignorance. One thing for sure the Bill 44 fiasco has legs and it is not going away!

I ran into a former Party President at lunch who has been asked to supervise the PC Party Leadership Confidence vote at the November AGM too. This vote is a Party constitutional provision and happens after every election. It was how the PC Party dumped Premier Klein when he hung on too long after the 2004 election.

Bill 44 is far from over. The political fallout is just beginning to be felt. The Letters to the Editor in the newspapers and the editorial commentary is still coming in. The legal fallout will have to wait for the Human Rights Act to be Proclaimed and who knows when that will happen. Time for citizens, and especially political party members, to take back their political power and to once again participate in the public policy culture of their society.

Opting out of citizenship due to cynicism and skepticism is creating a "silent majority" in the minds of certain politicians. They are hiding behind this veneer of presumed public will and support for Bill 44 by presuming silence entitles them to legalize ignorance and intolerance around religion, human sexuality and sexual orientation.

The world is run by those who show up - not by those who opt out.

Premier Stelmach Say Bill 44 is a Free Vote and I Believe Him!

The smart money seems to believe that Bill44, as amended, will go through Third Reading tomorrow and become law. It will not be enforceable law until it gets signed by the Lieutenant Governor.

There have been some changes to Bill 44 presented by the government as a result of the political pressure and particularly from by teachers, school trustees and parent groups. More on that late, but the other significant change around Bill 44 was Premier Stelmach’s announcement yesterday that it would be subject open to a free vote in the Legislature. This is a dramatic turnaround from the staunch position of a few days ago that Bill 44 was going to proceed as a government bill and “as is.”

Premier Stelmach’s surprise pronouncement yesterday that Bill 44 would be subject to a free vote is very significant, shows enlightened leadership and needs to be acknowledged. There are many who don’t believe Bill 44 will be a free vote but I do. I think a free vote is only important at Third and final reading that makes the Bill the law of the land. Every vote beforehand is process and a free vote has no real meaning there. Liberal Opposition Leader has also said his caucus will have a free vote on Bill 44 as well, and given the small size of the NDP caucus every vote is essentially a free vote.

A free vote means that every MLA will be able to vote their conscience on Bill 44 without having to support party lines. I don’t know if the House voted on the government amendments last night or not but let’s not confuse the matter with parliamentary process. Let’s stay with the personal, political and leadership importance of a free vote.

A free vote shows the Premier recognizes the fundamental morality concerns and the personal values-based nature of what Bill 44 is all about. This shows Premier Stelmach is prepared to lose the vote and the passing Bill 44 into law. That is unlikely, but with a true free vote, why would anyone not take the Premier at his word on that?

Are there enough Progressives in the Stelmach government who do not doubt the Premier’s word and who will vote against Bill 44 as a matter of personal conscience regardless of partisanship? Are there some in the PC Caucus who realize that the opting out provisions are flawed? Do they see that the recent government amendments do nothing to fix the flaws, and may even make them worse? Will they exercise the free vote opportunity and declare their distaste for the unfortunate elements in this Bill and vote against it?

Or will the MLAs in the Progressive Conservative Caucus not believe the Premier when he said Bill 44 is a free vote? Are they afraid there will be consequences if they vote their conscience and oppose a government Bill regardless of what the Premier said about a free vote? That would be sad at so many levels and in so many ways, including the further erosion of our democracy. It would also show a lack of confidence in the leadership of the Premier if PC MLAs somehow felt they could not take him at his word that Bill 44 is a free vote for his Caucus.

I believe this proposed Alberta Human Rights law does not elevate Alberta society, or in any way, serve the greater good. It is supposed to be a law about what we believe in and reflect positively on us as a fair-minded, inclusive, diverse and respectful society. But it is so defective in serving those core Alberta principles, rather than make us proud to be Albertan; Bill 44 makes us want to cringe.

I don’t think there will be enough freely exercised Progressive Conservative MLA who will vote their personal conscience and defeat Bill 44. I also know not every PC MLA is enamoured with Bill 44 but they may think the “hard fought” amendments fix the problems so they can exercise their free vote and support the amended Bill. On a clear reading of the implication of the amendments, even by a mediocre legal mind, it is obvious that the hastily constructed parsing of words in the amendments only add process complexity instead of clarity. The changes simply don’t fix the fundamental flaws in Bill 44. For those who are not regular readers of this Blog just go back to archive entries for 2 weeks or so to get a sense of just how dreadful this Bill is.

If there are no dissenting votes from the PC side at third reading, as a Progressive Conservative Party member, I will be more disappointed than surprised. I will not know if that unanimity happened because the PC Caucus did not believe or trust the word of the Premier, their leader, when he gave his free vote directive on Bill 44. I will not know if that unanimous support of the amended Bill 44 was a character flaw or a judgment shortcoming of individual MLAs because they would not or could not see the serious social consequences of making such an ill-conceived law. I will not know if the Caucus membership is so timid or intimidated that some members who beg to differ, but rather choose to defer. I will suspect that if they all act like sheep they will at least have the integrity to be sheepish about it. Time will tell.

There is a great democratic force emerging on the political scene. It is an budding wave of voter energy and civic engagement that Bill 44 has created amongst networked and tech-savvy Influentials. I predict that nascent opinionated personal energy will become an on-going political force that will grow and gather momentum in Alberta. I smell democracy in the air and I sense a change coming. A few short hours ago hundreds of Influential tech-savvy and politically engaged Albertans from all over our province got on their computers and found each other online because of opposition to Bill 44. They eagerly explored their differences and enjoyed their like-mindedness too. The focus was all about what Bill 44 would do to offend their shared values and pride as Albertans.

A small group of people with the personal empowerment and communal potential got together on line, in Alberta, until very late last night. They engaged in common cause last night and that they may be the start of creating some big political changes that they want to see in their Alberta.

Margaret Meade is often quoted about cautioning to never underestimating the power of a small group of people to change the world - because that is the way it is always done. Margaret would have been proud of what she saw last night in Alberta. She would have enjoyed watch us struggle to find any rational reason, other than pettiness and pure power politics, for certain devastating, destructive and discriminatory changes being introduced into our Alberta Human Rights Act.

Late last night, online, a lot of Albertans got together, found each other, and started to wake up as they deliberately dusted off their citizenship. If Bill 44 is not a real free vote, there will be a political cost for Alberta Conservatives.

Brouhahas, Bungling, Banter and Buzz Befuddle the Alberta Government

There is a bunch of buzz out there about the Stelmach government, where they are going and how they are doing. I recently did a backgrounder interview with a daily newspaper reporter on the issue of how transparency has been changing - deteriorating - in the Stelmach government. I have also written a paper for a client on governance in Alberta that will be released in late May or early June.

There is a power shift happening in what forms public opinion these days. That power to form and inform public opinion is devolving to citizens who are actively engaging in conversations on matters of concern on the Internet, primarily through social media. This is generating buzz about the performance and positions being taken by the Stelmach government on a variety of issues and events. It is pretty obvious the traditionalists in government communications are unnerved by all this goings on becasue they have not come to accept that they can't control the message and provide the meaning behind the message anymore. The world has changed.

Now with the hasty departure of the Deputy Premier Ron Stevens, speculation and buzz will build. Part of the ongoing and online buzz is caused by past events like the Northumberland Beach brouhaha.

Here is a blog post by fusedlogic that gives some context and content as to why the online buzz about our government's performance and positioning is building. I will have more comments later but thought this link to blogger fusedlogic is worth a read.

ATA Brief on Bill #44 Exposes its Flaws

Here is the Alberta Teachers Association brief on Bill 44. It clarifies and outlines the practical problems for teachers from the offensive section 11.1. Thoise are the expanded and extended parental opting out provisions centred around religion, sexuality and sexual orientation being brought up in an Alberta classroom.

It is a well thought out brief and I agree with every thing in it. Full disclosure, I have done work for the ATA but I am not advising them on Bill 44.

I have read Hansard on the second reading debates on Bill 44. I am impressed by the grasp Liberals Harry Chase and Kent Hehr have on the issues and the implications. Education Minister Dave Hancock is clear in his analysis but I remain unconvinced that this legislation is necessary nor well advised for any reason whatsoever. I expect Hancock would rather see the deletion of section 11.1 but he is stuck defending it as a Cabinet Minister. I encourage you to read Minister Hancock's blog posts on Bill 44 as well.

Exposing teachers and quite possibly school trustees to expensive and intimidating potential legal processing before a Human Rights Tribunal by zealots and reactionaries is not dispelled by Ministers Hancock and Blackett expressing their personal beliefs that such situations would be unlikely to happen. The way Bill 44 reads now, there is an entitlement for a parent to file a complaint with the Human Rights Commission and seek redress before a Tribunal. Once a legal process starts, no one can predict what will happen, other than to say it will proceed and take its course. Precious little solice for the teaching profession and the poor teachers who will have to defend themselves in such circumstances.

Current policy has worked well for years and there is no sound public policy reason to change things. That makes one wonder why this provision is appearing in a government Bill other than bad politics is trumping good government. The additional opting out provisions provided in Bill 44 are not the same as in the School Act, regardless of how the Stelmach government tries to flog that mischaracterization. As for being symbolic, these changes are sure symbolic, but not of a satisfactory status quo and definitely not of the progressive plural and inclusive society that most Albertans aspire to.

As for Minister Blackett saying in recent media reports that it is too late to change the Bill. Horsefeathers. It is far from too late. I worked on an exemption for the nonprofit voluntary sector from the provisions of the Lobbyist Act last session. That exemption came out of the Bill by way a government member proposing the exemption by an amendment at third and final reading of the Bill. The amended Bill passed and the nonproft voluntary sector is exempt from the Lobbyist Act.

BTW, the government member who introduced the successful voluntary sector exemption amendment was the current Minister of Education, the Honourable Dave Hancock. It is not too late to withdraw the offensive section 11.1 of Bill 44 and failing that, it is obvious not to late to amend it either.

None of this will happen unless Albertans tell Premier Stelmach and all their local MLAs that they want Bill 44 changed so teachers can do their jobs appropriately and without fear. The Legislature is not sitting this week so your MLA is in the constituency. Drop by or drop them a note or an email and let them know you are unhappy with Bill 44 as it stands.

Is Bill 44 to Stelmach What 500 Dead Ducks Were to Oil Sands?

Here is a wonderfully illustrative and instructive Letter to the Editor in today's Edmonton Journal. It captures the concern behind the expanded and extended opting-out provisions in Bill 44 eloquently and almost poetically.

Here is another that is equally as insightful about what we should allow and expect of our public education system. This letter it totally aligned with the recent research finding we did for the Edmonton Public School Board on what the citizens of Edmonton what from their public education system.

There was a comment in the Edmonton Journal Venting column today that said to the effect if evolution were real then why are there still apes? If a comedian said that, I would have context enough to laugh. Without that context this comment is also enough to make one weep.

By not exposing our children to the full array of thought and inquiry, be it science or faith, past, present and potential, we stifle human curiosity and exploration. We rob our youth of the means to develop their own minds and to find their own meanings. Mankind, like nature, thrives on diversity.

This is not the stuff of the law or legal processes like Bill44 enables. The law is too blunt an instrument to decide such things.

The fallout for Bill 44 is to the integrity of the Stelmach government like 500 dead ducks were to the oil sands industry. It is time to put away these "fundamentalist principles" Premier Stelmach and do the right thing for Alberta's children and our society.

What Has Your Government Done to You This Week?

Here is a link to Fusedlogic, a smart social media strategy company. This is a blog post showing some of the topical traffic issues in and around the Government of Alberta for the last week. It has not been a good week for the strategically incoherent Stelmach government. These numbers show that cyberspace has been engaged.

Let me know what you think about the barring of opposition MLAs from a new conference on a new pharmacy policy, or the misleading beach picture from England in the $25m ALBERTA branding campaign or the weird amendments on Human Rights legislation to make it a human rights violation for a teacher to allow discussion on things like evolution or human sexuality where parents of kids in the class might object.

Parents now receive advanced notice when such topics are scheduled to be taught as part of the provincial course content. They can legitimately keep their kids out of those classes and that is fine. But what will religious fundamentalists do if thees issues come up spontanously in unscheduled classroom discussion. Dangerous to make this a human rights offence. Parents can teach their religious beliefs at home and in chosen places of worship. They should not be entitled to stifle free speech and expression for the rest of us.

What do you think?

Alberta's $2B Carbon Capture and Storage Project Receives Proposals

March 31, 2009 is the final day for Alberta companies to file details plans on what they would do to reduce CO2 emission if they were funded as part of the $2B Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) program of the Stelmach government.

This $B is an impressive financial commitment by 3.3 million Albertans into CCS technology. This is particularly impressive when you consider the U.S. was only investing $B and China was in for $6B for CCS technology and they are significantly bigger players than little ol' Alberta. Alberta is obviously serious about capturing and storing CO2 and this investment is a strong signal about the level of engagement from the province.

The CCS program was the only budget item that was NOT under reconsideration in the Alberta government's revisit of its budget with the economic meltdown that hit the world in September 2008. There was considerable private sector interest in the opportunity with over 50 initial indications of Expressions of Interest in the project. Over 20 proposals made it through the initial evaluation process and they were invited to submit details project plans by March 31, 2009.

Indications are that all 20+ proposals will make details submissions which will be evaluated by a committee of Deputy Ministers to whittle them down to between 3 to 5 accepted projects. What happens then is the proponents must actually develop and deliver on their proposals at their own expense. Once the projects are up and running and proven to reduce the CO2 as promised, only then will they get reimbursed from the $2B fund.

The Group of 20+ Proponents has been made public and I know of a number of project proponents and they are all proceeding very diligently on preparing their details submissions. That can only auger well for them, Alberta and our government’s efforts to reduce GHGs and deliver on it Climate Change policy. I hope there is a release of the Group of 20 who actually submit detailed project plans and a brief description of what they intent to do and how much they will reduce CO2 emissions.

This is all good news but there are some who are very suspicious about the effectiveness of CCS and say it is unproven technology. It is technology in progress for sure but it is far from unproven as the Weyburn CCS project has proven over the past number of years.

There is one persistent matter of confusion around the intent and outcomes of Alberta’s CCS efforts. The CCS project has been positioned as a solution to the CO2 emissions from the oil sands. It is not but that messaging still persists from some politicians and some government officials. The open pit mining of oil sands CO2 emissions will not be easily captured given the nature of the open pit mining process. However that process represents about 20% of overall oil sand development over time. Some 80% of total oil sands exploitation and almost all of future development with be using a drilling techniques, not open pit mining,

Drilling for oil sands is the future of the resource and most of the CO2 can be captured in those processes. The bitumen upgrading process also emits CO2 that and that can be captured too. That is all significant but the real payoffs for the Alberta CCS project will come from the reduced emissions from coal-fed electricity generation. Alberta uses a lot of coal to produce electricity and needs a great deal more electricity to keep pace with growth demands.

At a recent dinner meeting I had with the Premier I asked him about where the CO2 emission benefits would come from with the CCS project investment. He was quick to point out some benefits would be from oil sands development now and much more in the future. He noted the big payoff would be in coal based power generation.

The Premier had the facts right and the message clear but the impression left in the public and the media is Alberta is investing $2B in CO2 emission reductions from the oil sands. That mistake in messaging is going to cause more heat than light and increased mistrust over the intentions and actions of the GOA on delivering responsible oil sands development. We have had too much of that already so I hope the Premier and Ministers make it clear and transparent what the $2B CCS project is intending to do. I hope the clarity and transparency starts this week with some information on the 20+ project proposals that are applying for consideration for a share of the $2B of Alberta taxpayer money to reduce the Alberta carbon footprint.

As an Albertan I want to be proud of how we are developing the oil sands resources in a responsible and sustainable manner. I look forward to being proud of how we respond to CO2 emission reductions, still sustain growth and create green jobs in the process. $2B of investment in CCS is a great start.

Some Political Predictions and Observations for Canada and Alberta

I have been challenged by some friends and regular readers of this Blog to make some bold predictions for 2009. They come a bit easier if you look at the future through a values lens and not just an events lens. Based on some of our research on Albertan’s value drivers and with an extrapolation of those findings here are a few predictions for 2009.

YES ANOTHER FEDERAL ELECTION IN 2009. It will be early June or in the fall, depending on if Harper can move beyond his personal agenda and get serious about governing the country. The ballot question will be which leader you distrust the least to govern. If Harper fails to get a majority he is toast, just butter him.

I think Harper is past his prime and he will get a notably lower popular vote next election especially in Quebec and Ontario. Iggy benefits as a result of the Harper fatigue that is growing in the land. Iggy will be given a shot at leading the country but will only get yet another minority government. It will be our 4th in a row as Canada tries to work out its future direction and design its destiny. A Liberal coalition with the NDP will happen and not require the Bloc to participate to be viable. A coalition government will be seen by many electoral reform types as an experiment of what governing in a proportional representation voting model would be like.''

There is no Harper successor in the conservative wings, other than Prentice, who is the most obvious. But Prentice is not a natural replacement because he would be the 4th leader in a row from Alberta. That is not likely to happen take over unless the membership, in what has become Harper Party, evaporates in the Maritimes and Ontario and if only the west shows up to select a new leader.

A SEA CHANGE IN THE PUBLIC MOOD: There is a sea change in the national mood coming as well in 2009. It will be most dramatic in the form of a move away from the destructive and tiresome Bush league neo-republican political tactics that defined the Harper style and regime. His demise however will leave Canada without any strong and substantive federal political parties in this critical time. The political parties will come through the next election all lacking modern organizational capacity, enough money, strategic campaign capacity and effective and definitive leadership.

I see some dangerous times ahead for Canadian democracy as we try, as a country, to work our way through a serious and game-changing recession and the implications of the economic power shift to Alberta. Drift and confusion will prevail as partisans dive into desperate searches for new style political saviour/leaders that they (and we) can trust to govern not just win elections. We will long for new leaders who have ability, energy and enthusiasm for the job of governing and who also understand the nature and essence of the country. We will latch on to an effective leader who can communicate with a personal resonance and activating and invigorating vision for the country.

INDIFFERENCE TURNS TO ANGER AND ANXIETY: Citizen’s indifference towards politics in 2008 will turn to fear and anxiety in 2009 as a sense of foreboding and uncertainty sets the political mood. Such attitudes will colour the policy agenda as we wait for a miraculous leadership messiah to deliver us and perhaps help us adapt to the new world order. If we don’t see this new style leader emerging, Canadians will emotionally align with Obama. He will come to be seen as the best Prime Minister Canada never had as we will shift our focus on new American policy and governing models in a search for meaning in Canada.

WITHER ALBERTA? Alberta will feel the pain of the rest of Canada but we will weather the global recession better than anywhere else in the country. We will see people migrating here in droves again in the second half of 2009 looking for work as oil prices recover and stabilize in the $50-80 range. People will come to Alberta wanting jobs so they can pay taxes. They are not going to be coming just because Alberta taxes are low.


THE ALBERTA "BRAND" Alberta will be seen increasingly as the unrepentant bad-boy on the environment as carbon concerns accelerate and climate change becomes personal. This is especially going to be true if Alberta’s government pursues a counter-attack policy of spending $25million for a paid advertising campaign. This foolishness appears to be based on old-style “branding” techniques using messaging and positioning instead of sound policy and effective mitigation action. The rise of Web 2.0 and social media proliferation will make such old school approaches look and be laughable.

We Albertans have already lost the credibility battle on the emotional framing of oil sands versus tar sands in the world's consciousness and consequences of this very important energy resource. A slick and glossy paid media campaign aimed at getting out a countervailing “message” will be seen as a green wash and erode our credibility even further. Albertans want to be proud of how they are responsibly and sustainably developing the oil sands for wealth creation now and for future generations. Green washing old school attempts to buy media manufactured messaging will embarrass us.

LEADERSHIP SHORTFALLS: Alberta policy makers have yet to show that they get it. "It" is a clear and demonstrated consciousness about the intertwined nature of economy and environment and how it is best used to serve and reflect the social needs and values of the citizens. “It” is an integrated triple bottom line comprehensive and long term view of wise and responsible oil sands development.

As Premier Stelmach said in the last Alberta election, and I paraphrase: "...the environment trumps economic development and leadership trumps issues (management). I have seen some, but not enough, evidence of sound public policy on the ground that shows me this insight is an operational governing conviction and not election rhetoric.

In political Alberta and political Canada I will be looking for signs of leadership based on lessons learned from past mistakes, earned public trust, obvious character and intellectual integrity with demonstrated authenticity and a commitment to renewal. These are the key political, business and community leadership talismans I will be watching for in the coming year.

In my heart I remain cautiously optimistic in spite of the dire tone of this post. 2009 is here and it promises not to be pretty. We will have to change many things and in many ways as a result of unregulated and condoned greed and abuses. We should not try to come out of this recession by merely aspiring to replicate the kind of society, economy and eco-consciousness we were going in. We will all be better for the lessons learned leading up to the recession and new learnings and experiences we will have coming out of it.

(Photo credit dgwallick1 from Flickr)

Alberta's Royalty Breaks Should Be Conditional on Reclamation Clean Ups

Here is a link to my recent interview on CBC Radio 1 Wildrose Country on Premier Stelmach's royalty relief for conventional oil and gas drilling effective January 1, 2009

UPDATE: NOV 24/08 The Stelmach government announces TODAY that the royalty break announced Nov 19 for new drilling for wells after Jan 1, 2009 has been revised. It now applies to oil and gas wells that have started prep work as of Nov 19.

The delay in the program implementation in the original announcement would have done more short term harm than long term good because all current work on drilling plans would have stopped until January 1. Duh!

They say this royalty break "is not anticipated to affect the estimated royalty impact of the five-year program announced November 19, 2008." OK. I still want to ensure Albertans as owners get the straight goods on just how much it will exactly impact these non-renewable resource revenues going forward. Will our government tell us that exactly - along with all other production based royalty revenue calculations as well? They have indicated with pending legislation changes that we will not be able to FOIP that information. Not accountable. Not transparent and not good stewardship.

Now lets make it clear that only companies that are currently active in meeting their obligations to reclaim abandoned oil and gas plays are eligible for the royalty assistance. We need those oil and gas companies to clean up behind themselves just as much as we need to keep drilling folks.

Some Positive Steps by Stelmach on the Social Infrastructure Deficit

Here is a “get tough” law and order approach that makes sense. The Alberta government announcement of taking on “…the serious problem of repeat offender” is something I applaud.

The Stelmach government has already noted that it is adding a swack of new police on the ground and focused on gang issues. Edmonton and Calgary communities are really feeling the pressure around gang violence especially but the problem is spreading to other Alberta communities too. This new repeat offender effort is a good move if the stats given are accurate, namely 15% of criminals commit 60% of the crimes. This is a focused and concentrated leverage of crucial and expensive justice system resources.

That said, not all is well in the wonderful world of law enforcement, at least judging by the Paula Simons column in today’s Edmonton Journal. There are some significant problems in processing accused people sitting in remand as the system gets them ready for trial. Simons notes 56% of all those in custody in Alberta are awaiting trial - and not convicted of any offence. The reasons (also known as the blame) for these remand delays are many and varied and very much depends on which side of the legal system you are in.

According to Paula Simons, The Justice Minister is blaming the defence lawyers who are accused of gaming the system and causing delays The defence bar is not amused saying the delays are due to a shortage of judges, courtrooms and prosecutors. The defence Bar accuse the Alberta Justice Minister of “playing politics to undermine the public confidence.” Harsh!

These "arguments" are notsurprising. The operating culture in our legal system is based on the tried, true (and sometime tired) adversarial model. So it is not a surprise this hissing would happen between the Defence Bar and the Minister.

This approach may help to fix the blame in some people’s minds but it does not fix the problem in anybody’s mind. We need to fix the problem and Premier Stelmach's showing positive signs with these safe communities announcements focusing on gangs, repeat offenders and then adding 20 more addiction treatment beds.

Justice, like so much of the public roles and responsibilities in Alberta these days, is lagging behind the demands of economic and population growth all over the province. We see this lag in spades in the community based not-for-profit agencies in social services sector who are dealing with kids, seniors and the disabled.

The social services crisis has gotten to the point where parents of developmentally disabled Albertans felt compelled to hold a rally on the Legislature steps this week. They were there to draw attention to the tragedies that result from inadequate public policy responses.

Premier Stelmach is on the right track but he needs a fast track. He needs a significant commitment of funds to fix the staffing shortfalls and resource shortcomings that have built up in the social infrastructure deficits all over Alberta. The recent moves to provide 183 new police officers, 110 new probation officers, 62 more Crown Prosecutors and more to come all represent a serious political-will commitment on the safe community and the serious crime front.

We need the most vulnerable of our citizens including kids at risk, seniors in care and the developmentally disabled in our communities to have the political-will commitment of public resources necessary to ensure they are safe, secure, cared for and can lived in dignity. The first step in solving this problem is to ensure social sector workers, who are the caregivers for these Alberta, when they work for a living can make a living. That is not the case now.

Without this effort the comment about making Alberta the best place to live, work, invests and raise a family is just a political slogan not an express of shared values and political will.

Premier Stelmach - Alberta Has a Social Infrastructure Deficit Too!

The plight of children under the care of the Government of Alberta is now front page news. It is part of the continuing saga of the social infrastructure deficit in the province that is impacting children, seniors, and those with developmental disabilities, amongst others.

We created an obvious capital and environmental infrastructure deficit in Alberta that is now being addressed with new capital investments and an emerging awareness about reclamation, wetlands, climate change and biodiversity issues, to name a few.

We caused these deficits by paying off the debt and deficit too fast. We applied every loose nickel to debt and deficit and ignored the growth demands of the booming economy as well as the maintenance issues of the as-built infrastructure facilities. We deferred the need to address the environmental implications of our overheated, expanding and accelerating economy as well.

The social infrastructure deficit was caused by the same rush to repayment but it was hidden because those who are harmed by it are the most vulnerable in our society and their over-extended advocates. It was too easy to ignore and the powers that be did!

The last two years has seen more attention being paid to the damage caused to vulnerable Albertans by this neglect – or at least the lack of timely, appropriate and required attention by the powers that be. Recruitment of staff into the Alberta social services sector has been a major challenge because wages, benefits and working conditions are so bad that people rationally take other jobs.


Full disclosure, I am working with the social service sector in the area of supports for Albertans with developmental disabilities. That is a bias but it also provides me with knowledge and facts about the plight of these people and those who support them. I know what I am talking about.

The social infrastructure deficit has been ignored and deferred for far too long. People are being unnecessarily and irreparably harmed as a result. Premier Stelmach needs to get personally engaged in responding to the social infrastructure deficit and investigate what happened and what is happening and then get it fixed.

The first place to start is to start paying the staff who are working in the not-for-profit community based social services sector the same as the unionized provincial employees are paid for doing the same work. Stabilizing the workforce in the sector then enabling the recruitment ands retention of trained staff is foundational to solving the problems of the social infrastructure deficit.

If the social infrastructure deficit is not fixed than Premier Stelmach better stop telling people that Alberta is a “great place to live, work, invest and raise a family.” It is not true for too many Albertans who are at-risk and vulnerable.