It occurs to me that Borat may be searching for a sequel to his cult flick “Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan.” Where better to go than have Mario Dumont take him on a road trip to make a movie based on the ADQ's view of Quebec! The funding would, no doubt, come from Canadian government sources, all in the name of national unity, so what is the risk?
What about this for a working title: “Mario Treats Borat to a Cultural Learning of the Glorious Autonomous State of Quebec.” Just substitute Celine Dion for Pamela Anderson, and have Mario do a quick script adaptation. He could write himself in as the new Asmat, the Producer and could use most of his election speeches and media comments as background and research.
I think a moose instead of the bear and a maple syrup truck works better in a Quebec context. How about a duet? Mario and Borat singing "Mon Pays" to the tune of "O Canada"! They could sing it from the Hotel de Ville balcony in Montreal in honour of Charles deGaulle's famous "Vive Quebec Libre" pronouncement. What a fitting tribute to the essence of the Dumont goal of renaming the province to "The Autonomous State of Quebec." As for the naked wrestling scenes, they could happen just about anywhere.
How much would have to change from the original movie? Just some minor adaptations and reasonable accommodations to fit the ADQ perceptual context and voila - you have a hit sequel.
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
The Polls Tell Us Why Harper Will Not Be Going to the Polls - at Least Not Now.
The continuing volatility amongst Canadian's and our feelings about our federal government is showing up in the to-and-fro opinion polls results for the past many months. Flux and frustration are the political realities in the country today and Harper knows it. Do not hold your breath for an early election under the circumstances.
Harper is dancing as fast as he can, trying to catch up to the new rhymes and rhythms of the Canadian consciousness. He has made moves to change his framing from GST tax cutter and baby-bonus boy into the "thoroughly-modern vert-nouveau man." In the process has has been- seriously testing his credulity with Canadians. We just do not believe him nor do we seem to believe in him.
He breaks promises. He chases butterflies like Quebec "nation" without understanding the concepts and consequences. He panders and poses and under performs even on his tepid Five Priority Policy Agenda. Then he compounds the problem with cheap shots about parliamentarians loyalty and the Taliban, and makes unwarranted and unfounded personal slurs around the Air India tragedy, just to name a few.
Every time he sees the light and does something right and not just mean he get a 5 point bounce in the polls, for a day or two, moving from 35% to 40%. The mainstream media immediately goes into a rhetorical overdrive printing headlines about the Cons flirting with majority government territory and salivating over election fever. Then they retreat as the cold light of day emerges in follow up polls and we find that Harper has fallen back to earth, yet again.
The latest iteration of Harper’s up again and down again toilet-seat political fortunes happened over the March 19th Budget. The bounce to 40% territory happened in the first 2 days after the Budget. By the end of the week he was down to 35% again as people reflected on the Budget's political implications and realized Harper' s personal intentions.
Now we have to wait and see what the fallout is going to be for Harper out of the Quebec election. We all can see the consequences of his Budget bungling and interference in the Quebec election. He bet billions of our tax dollars on the Charest horse who turned up lame, in more ways than one.
The fiscal pain inflicted on the rest of us Canadians increased our frustration when Charest decided to use the Harper largesse for enhanced equalization money purely for personal tax cuts to Quebecers. We all understood the extra funs were intended to address the mythical fiscal imbalance for Quebec. The rest of Canada got no tax relief from the federal Budget and we are not amused. Especially Saskatchewan and Newfoundland who are legitimately angry with Harper. He screwed them royally in the process of paying off Quebec to purchase a personal power base.
Harper has essentially shown no progress in earning the trust and confidence of Canadians in the 14th months he has had control of the government. Do not be fooled, even with a minority government Harper has had de facto control. The Liberals spent most of 2006 finding a new leader and all of 2007 figuring out where they want to go with him so they have not been a force.
The major reason is after 5 years in federal leadership politics 65% of Canadians say they do not yet “know Prime Minister Harper any better as a person.” Those numbers are the same for all of Canada – expect for Quebec where a mere 59% say they don’t know him. This is not the stuff of long term viable political leadership.
I remember the headlines "Joe Who" immediately after Clark was chosen Progressive Conservative Party leader. Five year after Harper was chosen Reform/Alliance/Conservative party leader and over a year since he was chosen Prime Minister, we are still asking ourselves "Who is Stephen Harper?"
That is the real problem Harper has going int the next election, whenever it happens...we simply do not know who he really is after all these years.
Harper is dancing as fast as he can, trying to catch up to the new rhymes and rhythms of the Canadian consciousness. He has made moves to change his framing from GST tax cutter and baby-bonus boy into the "thoroughly-modern vert-nouveau man." In the process has has been- seriously testing his credulity with Canadians. We just do not believe him nor do we seem to believe in him.
He breaks promises. He chases butterflies like Quebec "nation" without understanding the concepts and consequences. He panders and poses and under performs even on his tepid Five Priority Policy Agenda. Then he compounds the problem with cheap shots about parliamentarians loyalty and the Taliban, and makes unwarranted and unfounded personal slurs around the Air India tragedy, just to name a few.
Every time he sees the light and does something right and not just mean he get a 5 point bounce in the polls, for a day or two, moving from 35% to 40%. The mainstream media immediately goes into a rhetorical overdrive printing headlines about the Cons flirting with majority government territory and salivating over election fever. Then they retreat as the cold light of day emerges in follow up polls and we find that Harper has fallen back to earth, yet again.
The latest iteration of Harper’s up again and down again toilet-seat political fortunes happened over the March 19th Budget. The bounce to 40% territory happened in the first 2 days after the Budget. By the end of the week he was down to 35% again as people reflected on the Budget's political implications and realized Harper' s personal intentions.
Now we have to wait and see what the fallout is going to be for Harper out of the Quebec election. We all can see the consequences of his Budget bungling and interference in the Quebec election. He bet billions of our tax dollars on the Charest horse who turned up lame, in more ways than one.
The fiscal pain inflicted on the rest of us Canadians increased our frustration when Charest decided to use the Harper largesse for enhanced equalization money purely for personal tax cuts to Quebecers. We all understood the extra funs were intended to address the mythical fiscal imbalance for Quebec. The rest of Canada got no tax relief from the federal Budget and we are not amused. Especially Saskatchewan and Newfoundland who are legitimately angry with Harper. He screwed them royally in the process of paying off Quebec to purchase a personal power base.
Harper has essentially shown no progress in earning the trust and confidence of Canadians in the 14th months he has had control of the government. Do not be fooled, even with a minority government Harper has had de facto control. The Liberals spent most of 2006 finding a new leader and all of 2007 figuring out where they want to go with him so they have not been a force.
The major reason is after 5 years in federal leadership politics 65% of Canadians say they do not yet “know Prime Minister Harper any better as a person.” Those numbers are the same for all of Canada – expect for Quebec where a mere 59% say they don’t know him. This is not the stuff of long term viable political leadership.
I remember the headlines "Joe Who" immediately after Clark was chosen Progressive Conservative Party leader. Five year after Harper was chosen Reform/Alliance/Conservative party leader and over a year since he was chosen Prime Minister, we are still asking ourselves "Who is Stephen Harper?"
That is the real problem Harper has going int the next election, whenever it happens...we simply do not know who he really is after all these years.
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
Blog Survey Show Harper Budget Did Not Increase Support for a CPC Majority Government.
UPDATE: MARCH 27 - DECIMA POLL AGREES WITH MY BLOG
The survey trends on this site about if you want a Harper majority government has been interesting. It has been running since late February. Originally the No side was way ahead but by early to mid March the respondents were almost 50/50 and then a slight majority said Yes. They said they were ready for a Harper majority government, for a few days, just before the federal Budget came down.
Ever since the Harper Budget on May 19th the activity on the survey has increased dramatically and the ratio has shifted. Now it is running 80/20 against a Harper majority government. As you can see the net result is a 60/40 over the time this survey has been running.
I will keep this survey alive for a few more weeks to see how my Blog readers react to the Quebec election and the level of desire they have for a Harper majority government given the Quebec election results.
This is not scientific by any means but it is interesting to see what self-selecting folks who come to my site and who take a second to answer the poll questions are thinking.
The survey trends on this site about if you want a Harper majority government has been interesting. It has been running since late February. Originally the No side was way ahead but by early to mid March the respondents were almost 50/50 and then a slight majority said Yes. They said they were ready for a Harper majority government, for a few days, just before the federal Budget came down.
Ever since the Harper Budget on May 19th the activity on the survey has increased dramatically and the ratio has shifted. Now it is running 80/20 against a Harper majority government. As you can see the net result is a 60/40 over the time this survey has been running.
I will keep this survey alive for a few more weeks to see how my Blog readers react to the Quebec election and the level of desire they have for a Harper majority government given the Quebec election results.
This is not scientific by any means but it is interesting to see what self-selecting folks who come to my site and who take a second to answer the poll questions are thinking.
How Will Harper Respond to the Changes in Quebec?
It is difficult to know what to make of the Quebec election results from way out here in Alberta. Understanding the implications for Canada is even more challenging. Here is what I think but I can assure you, we are now living on moving ground. The dynamics are so different that I feel know nothing for sure these days.
The pundit in me says that last night the electorate in Quebec sent a shot across Charest’s bow, sent a direct hit into Boisclair’s bow and let Dumont take a bow. It is a good sound bite but not helpful in understanding the implications of the Quebec vote last night.
So where are we, after having had some time to sleep on the Quebec election? Well there will be a raft of recounts so we are not yet sure of the final result but the popular vote was a three-way tie notwithstanding the final seat results. That three-way vote split should not be forgotten because it has serious implications for any minority government which has a short fuse by definition. I expect the dynamic, timing and outcome of the next federal election will have a lot to do with determining when the next Quebec election will happen and what it will be about.
The Quebec population shifted away from deciding who governs based on federalists and separatist criteria. It has not reverted to deciding government based on traditional left versus right criteria either. If you are to trust the observations on seasoned reporters from the province, the rise of the ADQ was more about identity politics and many Quebecers decided who to vote for mostly on that criterion. Dumont tapped the angst of rural and socially conservative Quebecers over accommodations around immigration, family values, and the distrust of elites and a fear of an erosion of the francophone identity. He also benefited significantly from the disenchantment of the old Liberal and spent PQ party hierarchies. Even as the second party Dumont is the undisputed winner from last night.
M. Dumont’s campaign comments have been characterized as “a more prudent kind of nationalism” allowing him to play both sides of the federalists-separatist fence. This so-called “autonomist” approach is repackaged sovereignty association to my mind. If it is about demanding Ottawa respect provincial jurisdiction and that strong provincial governments add to the strength of Canada, I am all for it. We shall have to wait and see what he means by an “autonomist” Quebec.
I see Dumont today as a three-legged man. He has one foot with the federalists, one with the separatists, and another planted firmly with the social conservatives of Quebec. Can the “real” Dumont stand up in this situation for very long? Time will tell but he has to shift his political weight one way or the other, sooner than later, or else he will look indecisive and ill-defined.
Harper clearly now needs a new best friend in Quebec. Charest is not “the man” any more. Boisclair is likely on his way out and never was in the running for Harper’s new best friend in Quebec anyway. Enter Dumont as the great Harper hope for victory in Quebec. Dumont's support for Harper will come at a price in both dollars and devolution of powers to the province. He will force Harper to spend and look like a profligate Liberal who is bound and determined to buy Quebec for power and peace, no matter what it takes. The last budget is a mere foreshadowing of this Quebec-centric spending spree Harper will have to embrace to win a Quebec based majority government I expect. The rest of Canada will will not be amused and tensions will rise.
Dumont’s Quebec base is also the old time-religion type so-cons that are reminiscent of the original western Reformers. That is a group that brought Harper to minority status but who he has abandoned as of late. Consider their growing disenchantment withHarper and his "set up" loss on the SMS vote, his reversals on Income Trusts, and the recent giveaway budget to Quebec. He is now seen as being all about a quest for personal power and abandoning the very principles that got him elected party leader and Prime Minister in the first place.
This means that the Dumont demands of Harper will force him to say one thing in Quebec and another in the ROC if his romancing of Dumont is going to work to win Quebec as the means to a CPC majority. Not an easy game to play.
We live in uncertain times with minority governments in Canada and Quebec now, and with Ontario on its way to the polls this fall. Alberta is a year away from an election too. Who knows what those elections will decide.
Citizens all over the country are expressing dissatisfaction about how they are being governed. Quebec is just the most recent and most dramatic expression of this discontent. If it keeps up we may have to declare old fashioned politicians as endangered species all over Canada. That may be a good thing come to think of it.
The pundit in me says that last night the electorate in Quebec sent a shot across Charest’s bow, sent a direct hit into Boisclair’s bow and let Dumont take a bow. It is a good sound bite but not helpful in understanding the implications of the Quebec vote last night.
So where are we, after having had some time to sleep on the Quebec election? Well there will be a raft of recounts so we are not yet sure of the final result but the popular vote was a three-way tie notwithstanding the final seat results. That three-way vote split should not be forgotten because it has serious implications for any minority government which has a short fuse by definition. I expect the dynamic, timing and outcome of the next federal election will have a lot to do with determining when the next Quebec election will happen and what it will be about.
The Quebec population shifted away from deciding who governs based on federalists and separatist criteria. It has not reverted to deciding government based on traditional left versus right criteria either. If you are to trust the observations on seasoned reporters from the province, the rise of the ADQ was more about identity politics and many Quebecers decided who to vote for mostly on that criterion. Dumont tapped the angst of rural and socially conservative Quebecers over accommodations around immigration, family values, and the distrust of elites and a fear of an erosion of the francophone identity. He also benefited significantly from the disenchantment of the old Liberal and spent PQ party hierarchies. Even as the second party Dumont is the undisputed winner from last night.
M. Dumont’s campaign comments have been characterized as “a more prudent kind of nationalism” allowing him to play both sides of the federalists-separatist fence. This so-called “autonomist” approach is repackaged sovereignty association to my mind. If it is about demanding Ottawa respect provincial jurisdiction and that strong provincial governments add to the strength of Canada, I am all for it. We shall have to wait and see what he means by an “autonomist” Quebec.
I see Dumont today as a three-legged man. He has one foot with the federalists, one with the separatists, and another planted firmly with the social conservatives of Quebec. Can the “real” Dumont stand up in this situation for very long? Time will tell but he has to shift his political weight one way or the other, sooner than later, or else he will look indecisive and ill-defined.
Harper clearly now needs a new best friend in Quebec. Charest is not “the man” any more. Boisclair is likely on his way out and never was in the running for Harper’s new best friend in Quebec anyway. Enter Dumont as the great Harper hope for victory in Quebec. Dumont's support for Harper will come at a price in both dollars and devolution of powers to the province. He will force Harper to spend and look like a profligate Liberal who is bound and determined to buy Quebec for power and peace, no matter what it takes. The last budget is a mere foreshadowing of this Quebec-centric spending spree Harper will have to embrace to win a Quebec based majority government I expect. The rest of Canada will will not be amused and tensions will rise.
Dumont’s Quebec base is also the old time-religion type so-cons that are reminiscent of the original western Reformers. That is a group that brought Harper to minority status but who he has abandoned as of late. Consider their growing disenchantment withHarper and his "set up" loss on the SMS vote, his reversals on Income Trusts, and the recent giveaway budget to Quebec. He is now seen as being all about a quest for personal power and abandoning the very principles that got him elected party leader and Prime Minister in the first place.
This means that the Dumont demands of Harper will force him to say one thing in Quebec and another in the ROC if his romancing of Dumont is going to work to win Quebec as the means to a CPC majority. Not an easy game to play.
We live in uncertain times with minority governments in Canada and Quebec now, and with Ontario on its way to the polls this fall. Alberta is a year away from an election too. Who knows what those elections will decide.
Citizens all over the country are expressing dissatisfaction about how they are being governed. Quebec is just the most recent and most dramatic expression of this discontent. If it keeps up we may have to declare old fashioned politicians as endangered species all over Canada. That may be a good thing come to think of it.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Is There a Pattern Forming Around the Harper Cons?
I hear the CPC is appealing the Court decision overturning the Rob Anders nomination in Calgary West. There is an interesting pattern that is forming here for the Conservative Party of Canada what with the events around Anders, Day and the last Ottawa race for mayor candidate involvement. Altogether they are either under investigation, pending investigation or under appeal from the courts. Real confidence and trust building events don’t you think?
I wonder who Harper called first tonight to congratulate them on the results of the Quebec election. My money is on Dumont first and Charest next. More on the Quebec election and what it means for Canada in a posting tomorrow.
Looks to me it is very much like a result that is close to what M. Leger said Quebecers wanted. they effectively have Dumont’s leadership, Charest’s MNAs and Boisclair’s policy.
I am glad Charest survived, party-wise and personally. It was nip and tuck for sure…on both counts.
I wonder who Harper called first tonight to congratulate them on the results of the Quebec election. My money is on Dumont first and Charest next. More on the Quebec election and what it means for Canada in a posting tomorrow.
Looks to me it is very much like a result that is close to what M. Leger said Quebecers wanted. they effectively have Dumont’s leadership, Charest’s MNAs and Boisclair’s policy.
I am glad Charest survived, party-wise and personally. It was nip and tuck for sure…on both counts.
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