LaPresse 8 avril 2007
Ken Chapman et Satya Das
Les auteurs dirigent Cambridge Strategies Inc, groupe-conseil albertain en politique publique.
The emergence of Mario Dumont and his autonomist agenda profoundly alters the traditional landscape of the Canadian federation.
In the middle of political uncertainty, the only certainty we have left is that we are all living on moving ground.
Yet this shifting terrain can be a place of some promise. Depending on the connotation and the meaning attached, the word autonomist can also be descriptive of Alberta – a desire for jurisdictional autonomy, in the context of a profound attachment to the idea of Canada.
In a sense, it is good that Quebec shifted away from deciding the old federalist versus separatist criteria. That division brought us close to sterility and futility. Any new channel of discourse, so robustly supported by Quebec voters, is preferable to the stalemate.
Even more interesting is the consensus among commentators that the rise of the ADQ reflects the politics of identity. If this is true, it has implications outside Quebec, in other parts of Canada where similar strains on traditional identity are very much a part of the social and cultural landscape.
Dumont’s ADQ tapped into the angst of rural and socially conservative Quebecers over accommodations around immigration, family values, distrust of elites and a fear of an erosion of francophone identity. Apart from francophone identity, these are resonant issues in Alberta as well.
Dumont’s campaign comments have been characterized as “a more prudent kind of nationalism” allowing him to play both sides of the federalist-separatist fence, yet his future depends on how an autonomist approach is elaborated in practice. If this is about demanding Ottawa respect provincial jurisdiction and a belief that strong provinces add to the strength of Canada, we are all for it. If it means isolationism, we are not!
We see Dumont today as a three-legged man. He has one foot with the federalists, one with the separatists and another planted firmly with Quebec’s social conservatives. Can the “real” Dumont sustain this stance for very long? He has to shift his political weight one way or another or he will risk looking indecisive and ill-defined as the inevitable next election looms large.
We expect the dynamics, timing, issues and even the outcome of the next federal election will have a lot to do with Quebec’s concerns as well. Harper clearly now needs a new “best friend” in Quebec. Jean Charest is not “the man” any more. Andre Boisclair is done, and never was in the running as Harper’s new best friend. Enter Dumont as the great Harper hope for a majority federal government—thanks to Quebec.
Dumont's support for Harper will come at a price in both dollar distributions and the devolution of powers to the province. He will force Harper to look fiscally like a profligate federal Liberal. Our guess is Harper will be bound and determined to buy Quebec’s “loyalty” no matter what it takes. Harper needs to “embrace” Quebec in order to win a majority government. The rest of Canada will not be amused and tensions will rise. Not an easy game for Harper to play but the recent federal Budget shows that every political soul has its price.
We live in uncertain times with minority governments in Canada and Quebec and with Ontario facing an election this fall. Alberta is at best a year away from an election and who knows what these elections will decide or how they will change the country.
Citizens all over Canada are expressing dissatisfaction about how they are being governed. Quebec is just the most recent and the most dramatic expression of this discontent. If this keeps up, we may have to declare that old fashioned command-and-control politicians a nationally endangered species.
Whether Dumont is the first of a new breed, or a repackaged version of an old-school politician, remains to be seen.
Sunday, April 08, 2007
Harper Still Falls Short - According to SES Poll Results Today.
SES has just released a new poll. Nice to see a poll that relates to pre-budget and post-budget periods with sufficient time lapse to neutralize the impact of the media coverage bounce. Also nice to see nothing much has changed since Jan 2006 election results with respect to the relative position of the parties. Decima is a bit different and the Cons love to jump on one result and call it a trend. All other recent polling shows about the same-old-same-old results as in Jan 2006 and this SES poll.
At least Dion has maintained the Liberal position and the Cons are still unable to capitalize on the power inherent in holding office. In fact they are tied within the polls margin of error, if you want to take an optimistic view. Harper only wants an election if he can appear to be pushed into it. Give us a year more to see who Dion is and capable of, the same goes for what May stands for and if Layton can escape the gravitational pull of the NDP past.
The Cons have been able to buy an 8 point bounce in Quebec for about $4.0B in booty if you include the aerospace $900M announced this week. How long will that last with Charest saying it is not enough and a Quebec minority meaning they will be in constant campaign mode there.
The other regional results are telling too. The other key battle front is Ontario which sees the NDP and Greens eroding support and going from the highest uncommitted vote to the average...all of this repositioned support is split between the two major parties who are now neck and neck.
The West is most interesting where the Liberals have a 5 positive point bounce and the Cons are static and only 6 points up on the Libs. What is going on there? The West got nothing from the budget except dismay that Harper has turned into the kind of Quebec pandering politician that spawned the Reform Party in the first place. How much can he alienate his base before he starts to see them staying home or sending a harsher message over his CPC leadership status? That grumpiness about Harper is just below the surface...expect Ted and Link Byfield to be the lightening rods to hunt Harper down on this front.
Poor old Atlantic Canada can't quite grasp the changes or is it that they have the best contrarian perspective on what things are happening? They keep the Cons at bay with tepid but no change in support and they reduce Lib support giving it to the NCP and the Greens and then have over a 50% bounce in uncommitted voters at 11%. For those Maritimers who can't figure out if Harper is going to "punch or bore" them - relax - he is going to do both to you. You count even less in Harper's sense of Canada than the West does, meaning he does not understand nor does he care much about your wants and wishes as Canadians.
In conclusion nothing has changed in the minds of Canadians in the past 15 months as to keeping a minority government or if it is time for a new majority...but 64% of Canadians in an Angus Reid study says now it not the time for an election.
One big shift we have seen happen since Harper took power. We have a Prime Minister who has demonstrated very forcefully that he and his PMO is the absolute controlling factor in his Party. We also can see that his agenda is to achieve personal political power over the country with Harper as Canada's Cromwell. He will do this at any cost, be it cash, conflict, conspiracy or our national sense of social cohesion.
An Ipsos Reid study recently indicated 65% of Canadians felt they did no know Stephen Harper as a person...in other words who he is and what he believes in and stands for. This is after over 5 years of seeing him in federal political leadership roles. Well in the past 6 months we have seen his tactics from broken campaign promises (Income Trusts and Equalization for example) to hypocrisy on others (wait time guarantees to disregarding the need for child care spaces), to buying Quebec support (the Budget) and a bullying political personality (personal attack ads to cheap-shot Taliban supporter accusations) in how he tries to marginalize and intimidate people.
We can now tell much more about who Harper really is. To my mind he is much scarier than we thought than even in the 2004 election. The key questions for Canadians about Harper is do we trust him? Does he "get the country" and does he have a serious grasp of the critical issues of our time - like the environment? Can we rely on him to keep his promises? Given his obvious hunger for power do we feel he is the right "fit" to be our Prime Minister with a majority government given all the discretion and power of that office? Does he have the kind of character qualities we want to see govern us as a modern mature citizen based democracy?
These polls show Canadians have not yet made up their minds on how they would answer these questions. I have. My answer is no on all counts.
At least Dion has maintained the Liberal position and the Cons are still unable to capitalize on the power inherent in holding office. In fact they are tied within the polls margin of error, if you want to take an optimistic view. Harper only wants an election if he can appear to be pushed into it. Give us a year more to see who Dion is and capable of, the same goes for what May stands for and if Layton can escape the gravitational pull of the NDP past.
The Cons have been able to buy an 8 point bounce in Quebec for about $4.0B in booty if you include the aerospace $900M announced this week. How long will that last with Charest saying it is not enough and a Quebec minority meaning they will be in constant campaign mode there.
The other regional results are telling too. The other key battle front is Ontario which sees the NDP and Greens eroding support and going from the highest uncommitted vote to the average...all of this repositioned support is split between the two major parties who are now neck and neck.
The West is most interesting where the Liberals have a 5 positive point bounce and the Cons are static and only 6 points up on the Libs. What is going on there? The West got nothing from the budget except dismay that Harper has turned into the kind of Quebec pandering politician that spawned the Reform Party in the first place. How much can he alienate his base before he starts to see them staying home or sending a harsher message over his CPC leadership status? That grumpiness about Harper is just below the surface...expect Ted and Link Byfield to be the lightening rods to hunt Harper down on this front.
Poor old Atlantic Canada can't quite grasp the changes or is it that they have the best contrarian perspective on what things are happening? They keep the Cons at bay with tepid but no change in support and they reduce Lib support giving it to the NCP and the Greens and then have over a 50% bounce in uncommitted voters at 11%. For those Maritimers who can't figure out if Harper is going to "punch or bore" them - relax - he is going to do both to you. You count even less in Harper's sense of Canada than the West does, meaning he does not understand nor does he care much about your wants and wishes as Canadians.
In conclusion nothing has changed in the minds of Canadians in the past 15 months as to keeping a minority government or if it is time for a new majority...but 64% of Canadians in an Angus Reid study says now it not the time for an election.
One big shift we have seen happen since Harper took power. We have a Prime Minister who has demonstrated very forcefully that he and his PMO is the absolute controlling factor in his Party. We also can see that his agenda is to achieve personal political power over the country with Harper as Canada's Cromwell. He will do this at any cost, be it cash, conflict, conspiracy or our national sense of social cohesion.
An Ipsos Reid study recently indicated 65% of Canadians felt they did no know Stephen Harper as a person...in other words who he is and what he believes in and stands for. This is after over 5 years of seeing him in federal political leadership roles. Well in the past 6 months we have seen his tactics from broken campaign promises (Income Trusts and Equalization for example) to hypocrisy on others (wait time guarantees to disregarding the need for child care spaces), to buying Quebec support (the Budget) and a bullying political personality (personal attack ads to cheap-shot Taliban supporter accusations) in how he tries to marginalize and intimidate people.
We can now tell much more about who Harper really is. To my mind he is much scarier than we thought than even in the 2004 election. The key questions for Canadians about Harper is do we trust him? Does he "get the country" and does he have a serious grasp of the critical issues of our time - like the environment? Can we rely on him to keep his promises? Given his obvious hunger for power do we feel he is the right "fit" to be our Prime Minister with a majority government given all the discretion and power of that office? Does he have the kind of character qualities we want to see govern us as a modern mature citizen based democracy?
These polls show Canadians have not yet made up their minds on how they would answer these questions. I have. My answer is no on all counts.
Saturday, April 07, 2007
Conservative Eye for the Liberal Guy
Here is a clever video - American but for the names and a few other changes the feeling for Canadians is the pretty much the same one.
Can Canadians be enraptured enough by the "charms" of the Harper Cons and Steve Harper be "made over" enough for us to want to give him a majority government now?
Identity politics and "regular-guy" candidates who authentically reflecting our personal values is what real politics is all about. So how much has Harper really changed and how far does he have to "work us over" so he can convince us he has seen the light. The "New Government of Canada" is so yesterday. Why? Well because Harper has kept all of his "campaign promises." That's right, all 5 of 'em and in a complete and timely fashion..don't you know? Time to move on.
The New Stephen Harper, the Primed Minister of the New Canada, that is what is next and what is so "now." Especially "now" since he has totally aligned himself with ALL the mainstream Canadian values, including integrity and transparency? A quick look at his record will "prove" that. Just make sure you only take a quick look and you only use the CPC webite as your sole source of information.
Is he worthy of our trust? Is he deserving of our consent to be governed by him and him alone. Of course! Steve Harper - there just has to be a majority government in your future. If for no other reason than Divine Right of the PMO. I just can't wait to have the chance to genuflect before my Prime Minister, the always Right, the occasionally Honourable, the "real Steve," the new Harper.
Can Canadians be enraptured enough by the "charms" of the Harper Cons and Steve Harper be "made over" enough for us to want to give him a majority government now?
Identity politics and "regular-guy" candidates who authentically reflecting our personal values is what real politics is all about. So how much has Harper really changed and how far does he have to "work us over" so he can convince us he has seen the light. The "New Government of Canada" is so yesterday. Why? Well because Harper has kept all of his "campaign promises." That's right, all 5 of 'em and in a complete and timely fashion..don't you know? Time to move on.
The New Stephen Harper, the Primed Minister of the New Canada, that is what is next and what is so "now." Especially "now" since he has totally aligned himself with ALL the mainstream Canadian values, including integrity and transparency? A quick look at his record will "prove" that. Just make sure you only take a quick look and you only use the CPC webite as your sole source of information.
Is he worthy of our trust? Is he deserving of our consent to be governed by him and him alone. Of course! Steve Harper - there just has to be a majority government in your future. If for no other reason than Divine Right of the PMO. I just can't wait to have the chance to genuflect before my Prime Minister, the always Right, the occasionally Honourable, the "real Steve," the new Harper.
Friday, April 06, 2007
Climate Change Impact, Adaptations and Vulnerability
Here is the link to the latest Working Group II " Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability IPCC Report on Climate Change. I have given you the link to the “Summary for Policymakers." Everyone had better read it and even the full report would be best. Be sure you understand it and the implications. It is about to change your life.
There is every reason to believe the planet will survive but no reassurance that many of the species on the planet will survive the way we are going. One has to wonder if that possibility of species extinction also includes Man!
There is every reason to believe the planet will survive but no reassurance that many of the species on the planet will survive the way we are going. One has to wonder if that possibility of species extinction also includes Man!
Harper's Latest Hoax: His Campaign Promise Over Wait Time Guarantees
UPDATE: APRIL 9, 2007
Andrew Coyne in the National Post does a piece today (Harper Has Learned Well) that reinforces the point of this Blog post. It is worth a read.
Stephen Harper claims he has delivered on another of his campaign promises, this time over health care wait times. The triumphalism he presented with this “announcement” is pure George Bush in content and context and especially in his contempt for the truth.
Dubya, you will remember, donned a flak jacket, flew in a jet, landed on an aircraft carrier as a poser for the photo op in front of a banner declaring “Mission Accomplished.” Yes the world was lied to yet again in his declaration of victory in Iraq. One can’t help but ask just how many months - and deaths ago - was it that the world celebrated that glorious day for our security and peace of mind. We have to ask ourselves just how the Iraqi people have enjoyed, or should we say endured, their “freedom” and their “democracy”?
Steve’s wait time guarantee delivery triumphalism was more bathos but his claims of political victory was just as hypocritical as Dubya’s Mission Accomplished declaration. Wait times “guarantees” yes sir – promise made – promise kept, well kinda, sorta, maybe. For sure under in certain circumstances, perhaps in three years and in limited and modest dimensions, admittedly to varying degrees and in different ways in the different provinces but it is ideal, we think.
The provinces will always seem to take the money in the same old extortion model originally fashioned and perfected by the old-style Liberals. This is Harper using the same old same old way of the feds buying their way into provincial jurisdiction. This is after all Canada’s “New” Government you have come to know. They are the “quasi-Conservative” and “Liberal emulator” government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Yup it is the "fiscally conservative" and the "jurisdictional purist" Stephen Harper who is doing the extortion trickery this time.
His approach on this policy trickery reaffirms his admiration with the George Bush precise media message planning and the transparency of his political power plays. As for the provinces it seems we can always count on them to trade jurisdictional purity when cash comes to shove. You can all expect Harper to be out of cash by the 2010 due date, just in time for his wait time policy outcomes to be evaluated and the provinces will have to account to citizens on this Harper policy.
The provinces are going to wear the political fall out from the lack of real performance for any effective wait time guarantee outcomes. Harper will have moved on, in one way or another. If he is still PM expect the second shoe to drop and he will say that his government, unlike the former Liberal government, respects the provincial jurisdiction in health care and expects them to deal with their own problems on wait time guarantees. That is the way this federal encroachment has always worked in the past and why would Harper be any different now?
It is always the same game when the feds agree to pay for new health care initiatives. At the beginning they buy provincial inclusion and engagement and they always pull out when the going gets tough or they have changed policy direction to some other flavour of the month.
It always ends up the same way, just like the old Peanuts cartoon. Remember the one where the Feds play Lucy holding the football and the Provinces play Charlie Brown. Chuck always who knows she will pull the ball away just as he goes to kick it but he continues to take the sucker bait every time.
Rest assured these fresh federal funds are not the answer to wait times and will do more harm than good to the over all system. Every MSM editorial and commentator I have read have called this ploy for just what it is – political hypocrisy and election posturing.
Given his dismal record on keeping campaign promises and his bullying style of playing power politics, I wonder why anyone who is politically engaged, and not a card carrying CPC party member, actually believes or believes in Stephen Harper anymore. This video captures the essence of Harper's duplicity.
Andrew Coyne in the National Post does a piece today (Harper Has Learned Well) that reinforces the point of this Blog post. It is worth a read.
Stephen Harper claims he has delivered on another of his campaign promises, this time over health care wait times. The triumphalism he presented with this “announcement” is pure George Bush in content and context and especially in his contempt for the truth.
Dubya, you will remember, donned a flak jacket, flew in a jet, landed on an aircraft carrier as a poser for the photo op in front of a banner declaring “Mission Accomplished.” Yes the world was lied to yet again in his declaration of victory in Iraq. One can’t help but ask just how many months - and deaths ago - was it that the world celebrated that glorious day for our security and peace of mind. We have to ask ourselves just how the Iraqi people have enjoyed, or should we say endured, their “freedom” and their “democracy”?
Steve’s wait time guarantee delivery triumphalism was more bathos but his claims of political victory was just as hypocritical as Dubya’s Mission Accomplished declaration. Wait times “guarantees” yes sir – promise made – promise kept, well kinda, sorta, maybe. For sure under in certain circumstances, perhaps in three years and in limited and modest dimensions, admittedly to varying degrees and in different ways in the different provinces but it is ideal, we think.
The provinces will always seem to take the money in the same old extortion model originally fashioned and perfected by the old-style Liberals. This is Harper using the same old same old way of the feds buying their way into provincial jurisdiction. This is after all Canada’s “New” Government you have come to know. They are the “quasi-Conservative” and “Liberal emulator” government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Yup it is the "fiscally conservative" and the "jurisdictional purist" Stephen Harper who is doing the extortion trickery this time.
His approach on this policy trickery reaffirms his admiration with the George Bush precise media message planning and the transparency of his political power plays. As for the provinces it seems we can always count on them to trade jurisdictional purity when cash comes to shove. You can all expect Harper to be out of cash by the 2010 due date, just in time for his wait time policy outcomes to be evaluated and the provinces will have to account to citizens on this Harper policy.
The provinces are going to wear the political fall out from the lack of real performance for any effective wait time guarantee outcomes. Harper will have moved on, in one way or another. If he is still PM expect the second shoe to drop and he will say that his government, unlike the former Liberal government, respects the provincial jurisdiction in health care and expects them to deal with their own problems on wait time guarantees. That is the way this federal encroachment has always worked in the past and why would Harper be any different now?
It is always the same game when the feds agree to pay for new health care initiatives. At the beginning they buy provincial inclusion and engagement and they always pull out when the going gets tough or they have changed policy direction to some other flavour of the month.
It always ends up the same way, just like the old Peanuts cartoon. Remember the one where the Feds play Lucy holding the football and the Provinces play Charlie Brown. Chuck always who knows she will pull the ball away just as he goes to kick it but he continues to take the sucker bait every time.
Rest assured these fresh federal funds are not the answer to wait times and will do more harm than good to the over all system. Every MSM editorial and commentator I have read have called this ploy for just what it is – political hypocrisy and election posturing.
Given his dismal record on keeping campaign promises and his bullying style of playing power politics, I wonder why anyone who is politically engaged, and not a card carrying CPC party member, actually believes or believes in Stephen Harper anymore. This video captures the essence of Harper's duplicity.
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