I am interested in pragmatic pluralist politics, citizen participation, protecting democracy and exploring a full range of public policy issues from an Albertan perspective.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Is Harper the New Mr. Dithers?
Now he says private economic analysts say we are going to be in a “technical recession” as if his own government people didn’t know this, or he does not want to tell us he was advised of this reality by his administration. All of this is more Harper misleading machinations and mumblings and more of his patented politically misleading way of saying we are in recession. Who cares if it is technical or not?
He is reported to say he is “ready to open the government’s wallet t respond but not until February when the budget is due. He is now sending mixed messages concurrently in real time rather than saying one thing in an election and changing his tune later when the political gamesmanship is passed. This is because his ideological zeal can no longer manipulate the media by misleading advertising that diverts attention off the real issues and ignores the facts. That is because everyone knows he does that and we are all genuinely worried about what is happening. There is no map for this new economic territory that the Bush government has pushed on the world.
Harper is going to have to be more honest, forthright and frank with Canadians, even though it is so contrary to his political instincts. He is going to be politically hobbled and has to face the challenge of telling the truth this Thursday with his economic update. This is because Kevin Page, the Parliamentary Budget Officer saw to it last week with an announcement about the facts of the pending deficits to be sure they are known. Kevin Page, bless his heart, has pegged the good news next year at a $4B deficit; something Harper has said would not happen on his watch. The bad news, at least bad news for Harper’s ideological certitude, is that Page says the deficit could reach $14B. Ouch! Only question I have about the November 27th political melodrama is will Flaherty’s economic update be inconsequential or will it be nominated for a Pulitzer Prize for fiction?
Now we have our decisive and determined Prime Minister being vague about if there will be an economic stimulus and if it is to happen the timing gets dodgy too. Flaherty says last Friday that he will not deal with the economic issues of an economic stimulus until the February Budget. What gives? Obama is not even President yet and yet he is already announcing economic stimulus activities… already. Is this new dithering and indecisiveness of the Harper government the reason why we had an unnecessary inconclusive, expensive and rushed election? Say it ain’t so Mr. Harper.
Mr. Harper, we all know that you knew this economic crisis was coming, hence the early election notwithstanding your law to the contrary. The crisis started during the campaign but that was not why you lost a majority government. In fact the economic uncertainty was the reason why you did as well as you did. It was not anything you said or did during the campaign that is for sure. You and your party were perceived to be the better choice to manage during the coming uncertain times. You are not only letting us down and disappointing us again, you continue to mislead and play politics with our economic, social and environmental security as individuals and as a nation.
Don’t dither Mr. Prime Minister. It didn’t serve Paul Martin particularly well. We in Canada are in better shape than most but we can quickly decline into despair with your demonstrative indecisiveness. By th eway, our consumer and corporate confidence is at the lowest it has been since 1982. Enough said?
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Alberta's Royalty Breaks Should Be Conditional on Reclamation Clean Ups
UPDATE: NOV 24/08 The Stelmach government announces TODAY that the royalty break announced Nov 19 for new drilling for wells after Jan 1, 2009 has been revised. It now applies to oil and gas wells that have started prep work as of Nov 19.
The delay in the program implementation in the original announcement would have done more short term harm than long term good because all current work on drilling plans would have stopped until January 1. Duh!
They say this royalty break "is not anticipated to affect the estimated royalty impact of the five-year program announced November 19, 2008." OK. I still want to ensure Albertans as owners get the straight goods on just how much it will exactly impact these non-renewable resource revenues going forward. Will our government tell us that exactly - along with all other production based royalty revenue calculations as well? They have indicated with pending legislation changes that we will not be able to FOIP that information. Not accountable. Not transparent and not good stewardship.
Now lets make it clear that only companies that are currently active in meeting their obligations to reclaim abandoned oil and gas plays are eligible for the royalty assistance. We need those oil and gas companies to clean up behind themselves just as much as we need to keep drilling folks.
Harper is Sounding Progressive Again - But Can We Trust Him?
Reports from CanWest reporter David Akin noted that Harper commented that “…the Great Depression was caused by countries letting banks fail, allowing deflation to run rampant and trying to balance their books at all costs, even if it meant raising taxes and slashing public spending.” Harper is reported to all of a sudden favour “unprecedented fiscal actions…to stimulate economic growth and ease tightening credit conditions.” As if he wasn’t already spending taxpayers money at an alarming rate leading up to the election.
So the economist in Harper is stimulus Keynesian after all, notwithstanding his rhetoric about no deficits and smaller government in the election just a few weeks ago. Gotta love it when politics turns to pragmatism and order and good government becomes a goal of the Reform/Alliance leadership.
It is an open question as to what Harper is really doing and if we can ever believe him at face value. He often says one thing for political purposes, including pandering to his base or to Quebec for personal power plays. And then he does another, often the exact opposite when it suits him…and it happens all the time. Canadians need a truthful and transparent Prime Minister who says what he means – the first time – and for the purposes of sound public policy – not just personal power and message positioning.
He said that he would control Alberta’s bitumen exports to foreign countries based on a countries environmental standards and record. It was a clear shot at pandering to the Bush White House and an attempt to marginalize China in the process. It was all tied to the Bush excuses to delay or not institute climate change policies in North America because of attitudes towards China on environment. Not good public policy in the context of Harper’s resent statements of not being protectionist or raising trade barriers in the face of the growing economic crisis that is enveloping the entire planet.
It is important to note that APEC is a group of 21 Pacific Rim countries whose economic leaders have been meeting since its inception in 1989 in response to growing interdependence among Asia-Pacific economies; APEC has become the premier regional forum for promoting open trade and practical economic and technical cooperation among Asia-Pacific economies.
Over the years, it has grown to a membership spanning four continents, and represents the most economically dynamic region in the world, accounting for approximately 40 percent of the world's population, 56 percent of world GDP and nearly half of world trade.
It is a very vital forum for Canada and Alberta and B.C. in particular given our orientation to the Pacific Rim. We need the Pacific Rim countries to succeed for them to produce more trade and investments in our provinces, as well as providing continental energy supply and security.
I hope I can trust Harper at his word for a change, especially when he makes such practical and positive statements about governments taking initiatives to encourage trade. It is not his personal default position and it means he has to revise his attitude about the best government is no government and the marketplace should prevail to solve the problems of the world. That acceptance of an activist role and responsibility for government is a tectonic shift for Harper. I hope he means it and it is not just another piece of his continuing political positioning and posturing that he will once again either ignore or reverse on a whim.
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Masters of the Universe Icons of Commerce Prove to be Just Greedy Bastards at the End of the Day
Canadians should never forget that Harper lied to us about the pending recession during the last election with his promises of never allowing a deficit and now he is accepting one. He also lied when he said we would escape the economic impact of the American induced financial crisis based on our best of breed amongst a bad lot in the global banking system.
Thank to Kevin Page's honest and professional assessment of the Canadian economic reality, it will be more difficult for the Harper government to continue to lie and mislead use about the fiscal facts facing Canada in the economic update expected later this week.
I am astonished that the corporatist Masters of the Universe types, Detroit's "big three" Chapter would be so self-absorbed and unaware. How they handled their recent bailout bumbling in Washington this past week shows just how indifferent and unaware they are of the real world of the rest of us. I can see no reason to justify a bailout of the automotive sector under the current circumstances. If the free market system is to be free, it has to be free to fail. Lets not see governments try to pick winners with public investments that interfere in the marketplace realities. Where will it stop? We in Alberta know first hand it will not work based on past experiences.
I have some stomach for the taxpayer buyouts of some of the banking business bozos. I can even accept the planning shift of TARP away from buying the bogus paper these bastards pushed out the doors for bloated fees and foolishness. Still, letting some financial institutions fail like Bears Stearns and Lehman Brothers is a good thing.
Trying to restore confidence in financial sectors by buying equity positions that essentially nationalized the American financial sector is a necessity to ensure some semblance of a working market place for everyone. That said, it has yet to be proven effective. For example, Citigroup got $25B of bailout money and promptly dropped 23% of stock market value - in one day. This once enormous bank is cutting 52,000 jobs and now has a market capitalization smaller than Home Depot.
So much also for asinine assurances and the mistaken mythological around sound conservative economic management capabilities that inappropriately inure to the Republican Party. They have methodically removed the role of good government and the capacity and flexibility of any government to be reasonably responsive to the worldwide financial crises the Bush White House has aided and abetted.
They have removed required regulatory oversight, instituted low taxes for the rich, were the biggest of tax spenders and have proven to be accomplished deficit builders and incredibly inept fiscal managers. Canadians must never forget that our own Artless Dodger, “Steve” Harper is a disciple of the new-Republican economic strategy - and there is no evidence he has changed.
We have all these indifference greedy and gouging corporate executives pocketing huge personal fortunes all under the guise of socially, environmentally sustainble wealth creation and myths of increased shareholder value in “free” enterprise model. They are now proven to be just plain greedy and reckless at best…profoundly irresponsible and perhaps criminal at worst.
As the recession sets in next year we will see more children remain or be reduced to poverty as their families fail to be able to provide the necessities of life for them to escape the rut of economic want and the social and personal tragedies that are inevitable to at risk kids. Child poverty ha s not improved in a generation where economic growth has been the highest and longest sustained period in history. Child mental health is also a national disgrace and bound to get worse. This is thanks in large part to the personal and institutional greed of these fat cats who are proven to be reckless, feckless and check less, thanks AGAIN to bad politicians with a penchant for irresponsible deregulation coupled with shortsighted and short term policy perspectives.
From now on I am only going to invest in ethical corporations with leadership that sees business as having a social, environmental and wealth creation value set…not just growth at any cost. I am going to call out anyone I see irresponsibly running a public or private enterprise contrary to the greater public good as well as producing shareholder value.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Harper Dances with Deficits
In the election Harper was skillfully man-handling the Liberals and manipulating the media with the old saw of Liberals being taxers and spenders. He was carpet bombing the messaging and describing the dire warnings that would result from a Liberal vote. To let the likes of Dion, as advised by Paul Martin, would be risking deficits...and that, we were told, was a risk that was not worth taking.
The Harper Cons campaign mantra was that the economic fundamental of the country is strong and Canada was going to be OK in the face of the market meltdown. He milked the symbolism of a small group of banking insiders ranking the Canadian banking system as the best of a bad bunch. A 60 second reflection on that “positive news” was hardly reassuring.
Since then Harper has made $75B of taxpayer’s cash available to those excellently run banks so they could have some bad loans bought up. This is to convince the banks to start lending again.
So far the banks have not taken up any of this Harper largess with our tax money. The prime lending rate has been cut and cut again and the Bank of Canada has also injected more liquidity in the Canadian banking system. Now he is poised to bail out the automotive industry in consort with the lane-duck Bush bunch. It all seems so Trudeauesque, who equally failed years ago to convince us with his election rhetoric and silly sloganeering that “The Land is Strong.”
Now Harper is backtracking on his infamous fiscal frugality and flirting with deficit spending coming out of the G20. Of course government should be spending for infrastructure and to create jobs and cash flow in such tough times. Especially when the banks and business will not, or cannot, step up to the plate to do so. But why did the Prime Minister mislead us during the election campaign over instituting such an obvious means to address such serious matters? Is it because Harper thinks that Kim Campbell was actually right? That election campaigns are not the place to discuss issues of significant concern to the country?
If you looked up mendacity in the dictionary you should not be surprised if you were to see Steven Harper’s picture. Harper has proven himself to be a shrewd and canny campaigner and a powerful political enforcer. He has a long way to go to prove himself as a good governor but the times are begging for such leadership. As for Harper becoming a statesman, one has to wonder if he is even slightly interested or capable of such status given his purpose and passion for personal political power.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Cannon Speaks About Dealing Aberta's Oil - Does Harper Know?
The Cons through Foreign affairs Minister Cannon are now saying “…there is no ideological right or ideological left” as they try an distance themselves from the sycophantic relationship they had with the Bush/Cheney White House. Bush is gone. McCain lost. Harper is dancing as fast as he can to shape shift his ideological stripes. Disingenuous is the kindest characterization of this continuing political shiftiness of "Steve" Harper.
On the other hand he has his Minister of Foreign Affairs Lawrence Cannon making front page news in Alberta saying ever so unsubtly to the Obama administration-in-waiting that “Canada might sell it oil elsewhere” if the new American administration under Obama decides to renegotiate NAFTA. What about the fact NAFTA is due for a renegotiation under its own terms anyway? Maybe a review is a good thing - like to get a redo of the disastrous deal the Cons did to the Canadian forest industry on softwood lumber.
Hey Jack! Yah you…Jack Layton! Are you supporting Harper on this no renegotiation of NAFTA stuff? Does Maude Barlow have you r direct line? I expect she is on your case. The Liberals are not going to bolster the Conservative minority anymore. Are you going to stand for this or are you going to force another early election because your ideological position is that NAFTA is plain bad-bad-bad.
This new Harper government rhetoric is flying in the face of the election position of Harper saying he would control the sale of oil sands bitumen based on environmental standards…a shot at restricting Chinese participation and favouring the American market. Stelmach clearly told Harper to back off Alberta’s oil marketing rights during the recent federal election.
Has Cannon gone Palin rogue and is off message as well as his rocker? What is he doing talking about this to the media on anything anyway? That is exclusively Harper’s job – or his Presidential-like official spokesperson at the very least Is Cannon the Quebecer playing the regional environment card and focusing on the so-called “dirty oil” framing that is so harmful to Alberta’s interests and benefiting Quebec?
What about the niggling little legal and constitutional points that none of this is “Canada’s oil”? It belongs to Alberta, B.C., Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland-Labrador. Alberta has asked to be at the table with the Feds in all such discussion around the international implications involving its resources. Harper has been busy and has not replied yet…or listing to canon – has he?
Add in the other central themes on climate change, market meltdown, government bailouts and a world- wide recession and the tendency to take the Alberta conservative support for granted and I’m betting the backrooms between Edmonton and Ottawa are going to get very interesting and very loud and extremely intense.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
On The Map with Avi Lewis: Alberta Oil Sands
Here is Avi Lewis and the Parkland Institute's take on oil sands as a source of continental energy supply.
The framing of the visuals and pull quotes are pretty onesided. That is to be expected from these sources. That said the dialogue with Diane Gibson is very factual and balanced and a good discussion on a range of important contenental energy issues.
Speaking of big issues oil snads issues. It is a big mistake for the Alberta government to be reducing openness and accountability for disclosing oil sands revenues and royalty information. The Privcy Commissioner is on it and the Auditor General has be critical of past lapses in acountability for royalty payments and collections. FOIP laws already protect industry from disclosure of proprietary information.
This is not good policy nor good governance and a bad step in the wrong direction.
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Sen. Barack Obama discusses net neutrality on MTV
Net Neutrality is a big deal for anyone who values free speech. Obama is on side and gets it.
Access fees and messing around with bandwidth and quality are not to be allowed in a free and democratic society.
Big service providers who want to make the Internet more like television are shaping or throttling. That is selling you a certain bandwidth service but they provide different download and upload speed. This is breach of contract and private sector infringements on my free speech rights. They have no business doing that at all.
CRTC is dealing with the shaping and throttling issues in a complaint against Bell but they are all doing it. A decision was expected in October but it is delayed "due to the complexity of the issues." What complexity? Give me the bandwidth I contracted for total and get out of the way of an open access Internet.
It is not television and it is not the telephone business regardless of how much the old-style thinking of the service providers try and convince themselves of those delusions. The Internet is about connectivity and content and freedom of speech and assembly.
Is Harper Hapless to Deal With the Economic Crisis?
Alberta's Environment Minister Renner Visits Fort Chipewyan
Wow! Here is a step in the right direction. Alberta's Minister of the Environment is going up to Fort Chipewyan on Monday to listen to health concerns of the community related to oil sands development.
It is important that the Minister of the Environment engage in health issues relating from environmental issues, policy and practices. Clean water, air and land is an environmental responsibility but also a health issue for humans and the biota as a whole.
I was at the Keepers of the Water conference in Ft Chip earlier this fall as part of my work with the Canadian Boreal Initiative on biodiversity offsets for oil sands projects. I spent four days in Ft Chip and met a lot of great people and had time to talk to many of them extensively.
I learned more about the issues of health and environment linkages at the conference meetings and from those locals who picked me up as I hitch hiked from place to place. I became acutely aware of the clean water issues and concerns in the community. I saw first hand the now famous two-mouthed fish caught in the Athabasca river near the community.
Many years ago the Athabasca river was a sewage dump for the pulp mills along its shores. When ALPAC was approved in the late 80's it was the largest single line pulp mill on the planet. The water quality and related health issues became front and centre as a public policy concern. The net result was the environmental conditions on the ALPAC approval, suggested by ALPAC itself, BTW, actually enhanced the overall water quality of the Athabasca river. This is because they and all the other mills on the river also changed their corporate cultures and their ecological approaches to doing business in a more sustainable way. Full disclosure - I was advising ALPAC on issues management concerns over the mill approval process at the time
Environment and health are integrated and related concerns and the folks at Ft Chip are acutely aware of this reality. Nice to see someone taking the political lead on this public policy issue and not just shuffling it off to a report process.
Good for Rob Renner! I am looking forward to hearing what the Minister picks up and what resonates with him from this visit.
Saturday, November 08, 2008
Obama Launches New Website on Transition
If I were to follow any developments in the US governance I'm thinking this Obama effort is the site to use.
Here is a link to the election night victory speech vidoe from the new site.
Friday, November 07, 2008
Harper Kills National Portrait Gallery & I'm OK With That
Claiming no proposal was acceptable in cancelling the project is a political shifting of blame for a poor federal government policy decision in the first place. There is no need to spend that money for this purpose now as the feds flirt with recession.
The Alberta government pledged $40m to support the project. That culture funding is now freed up and ought to be reassigned by the province to support the new film and television funding program that is in the policy development process.
Alberta was the first province to support film and television production. It was so successful at developing creative and lucrative work for film industry workers that everyone else quickly got into the act. Alberta killed the program in 1996 with the focus on debt and deficit elimination and an ideological stance that government should not be in the business of being in business.
Well it is time to get back into supporting the infrastructure needed to support the cultural creatives in Alberta. Film and television industry is very viable even in these tough times. It provides huge investment multipliers for the bucks and is clean money that advances innovation as well.
There is $40m freed up now and Alberta should put that cash into the new proposed film and television fund. Full disclosure, I helped in a small way in the development the new funding deal. I also facilitated in getting some big new television series to come to Alberta. I even have a Co-Producer credit in the production of a home-grown sketch comedy series on APTN "Caution May Contain Nuts" that airs on late Saturday nights if you are interested.
Alberta Liberal Party Leadership PSA
A strong democracy and good government demands a strong opposition. Pick up memberships on-line today before 4 pm to participate.
I have sold lots of Alberta Progressive Conservative memberships to Liberals in the last two leadership contests. Many people resist "joining" a political party because they somehow feel it restricts them from speaking there minds. That has not been my experience. In fact it it pointless to join a political party if you don't speak your mind. that is what they are for.
I encourage Albertans to pick up an Alberta Liberal membership for the sole purpose of having some say and influence on who will be the Leader of the Opposition in YOUR government. It is money well spent.
Sunday, November 02, 2008
Rural Alberta Broadband Access - More Than Connectivity. It's About Equality and Equity
My net neutrality take is going to be about the need for free speech protections from private sector regulation disguised as proprietary rights of providers of broadband services. The rural broadband access to the Alberta SuperNet, the so-called First/Last Mile connection, is a major and transformative public policy issue for government.
This is also an issue in the Presidential election, at least for the tech-community. It is a differentiating issue that shows the spread of the consciousness and world views of McCain and Obama. McCain is so yesterday. He does not use a computer and has not sent an email and his stance on broadband shows his ignorance of what is happening in the so-called competitive wireless world today. No wonder the entire American technology community supports Obama.
I have a concern over the vacuum in the public policy leadership role to realize the potential positive impact of the Alberta SuperNet fibre optic system that is all over the province but still out of reach of citizens.
Rural broadband access is a key public policy issue for the Alberta government. It is about access but it is also about broadband equality - or at least equity for smaller communities and remote citizens. It has serious implications for free speech protections and consumer rights protections from the big providers like Telus, Bell, Rogers and Shaw and how they want to change things to reduce competition and "shape" access to the Internet. More on that later.
A collaborative community-based effort is emerging around these issues called Communities Without Boundaries. They just staged a successful province-wide SuperNet based day-long video conference event on October 31 on the various issues of rural broadband access, equity, and services.
In addition we see the Alberta government sponsoring a new wireless First Responder integrated province-wide system for use by police, fire, ambulance, emergency measures and others. The "others" have to enable the new towers for this system to be regulated so private sector wireless ISPs can co-locate on them to meet broadband needs of remote citizens. Competition amongst ISPs is a good thing but hundreds of individual and expensive ISP towers blighting the landscape is not a good thing.
I am working with The Internet Centre,the first commercial ISP in Alberta, seeking a CRTC ruling requiring Telus to province access to their copper telephone wires to be used for SuperNet access in communities all over Alberta. The old-fashioned idea of copper wire is an inexpensive, ubiquitous, reliable and robust way for individuals, community organizations and business in small towns and cities all over Alberta to get access to the SuperNet big pipe. This connectivity is as transformative for rural communities as rural electrification and telephony was decades ago.
Telus is opposing the CRTC application but AXIA, the operator of the SuperNet for the province is in support. We expect a decision before Christmas and here is the link to the CRTC page with the details on all the application submissions.
Lots of changes are in the wireless air and even buried underground in the form of copper telephone wire. The issues are a vast array of concerns about fairness, equality, free speech, consumer rights, competition and regulation, sustainable communities, productivity, connectivity and globalization. Stay tuned to this blog for new developments and commentary.
Saturday, November 01, 2008
American Political Culture Past and Present. What is the Future?
Look at the videos in the footnotes and realize that if Obama wins or not, there will be lots of work for American Cultural Creatives to do. Not the least of which is an activitist re-engagement in politics.
The backward leaning Traditionalist that elected Reagan and the Bushes are threatened by more than 911. The consumption based striving model of the Moderns is about to end in recession if not depression. The new values of Cultural Creatives will have to emerge as a political force in the States and I suggest in Canada too.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Some Positive Steps by Stelmach on the Social Infrastructure Deficit
The Stelmach government has already noted that it is adding a swack of new police on the ground and focused on gang issues. Edmonton and Calgary communities are really feeling the pressure around gang violence especially but the problem is spreading to other Alberta communities too. This new repeat offender effort is a good move if the stats given are accurate, namely 15% of criminals commit 60% of the crimes. This is a focused and concentrated leverage of crucial and expensive justice system resources.
That said, not all is well in the wonderful world of law enforcement, at least judging by the Paula Simons column in today’s Edmonton Journal. There are some significant problems in processing accused people sitting in remand as the system gets them ready for trial. Simons notes 56% of all those in custody in Alberta are awaiting trial - and not convicted of any offence. The reasons (also known as the blame) for these remand delays are many and varied and very much depends on which side of the legal system you are in.
According to Paula Simons, The Justice Minister is blaming the defence lawyers who are accused of gaming the system and causing delays The defence bar is not amused saying the delays are due to a shortage of judges, courtrooms and prosecutors. The defence Bar accuse the Alberta Justice Minister of “playing politics to undermine the public confidence.” Harsh!
These "arguments" are notsurprising. The operating culture in our legal system is based on the tried, true (and sometime tired) adversarial model. So it is not a surprise this hissing would happen between the Defence Bar and the Minister.
This approach may help to fix the blame in some people’s minds but it does not fix the problem in anybody’s mind. We need to fix the problem and Premier Stelmach's showing positive signs with these safe communities announcements focusing on gangs, repeat offenders and then adding 20 more addiction treatment beds.
Justice, like so much of the public roles and responsibilities in Alberta these days, is lagging behind the demands of economic and population growth all over the province. We see this lag in spades in the community based not-for-profit agencies in social services sector who are dealing with kids, seniors and the disabled.
The social services crisis has gotten to the point where parents of developmentally disabled Albertans felt compelled to hold a rally on the Legislature steps this week. They were there to draw attention to the tragedies that result from inadequate public policy responses.
Premier Stelmach is on the right track but he needs a fast track. He needs a significant commitment of funds to fix the staffing shortfalls and resource shortcomings that have built up in the social infrastructure deficits all over Alberta. The recent moves to provide 183 new police officers, 110 new probation officers, 62 more Crown Prosecutors and more to come all represent a serious political-will commitment on the safe community and the serious crime front.
We need the most vulnerable of our citizens including kids at risk, seniors in care and the developmentally disabled in our communities to have the political-will commitment of public resources necessary to ensure they are safe, secure, cared for and can lived in dignity. The first step in solving this problem is to ensure social sector workers, who are the caregivers for these Alberta, when they work for a living can make a living. That is not the case now.
Without this effort the comment about making Alberta the best place to live, work, invests and raise a family is just a political slogan not an express of shared values and political will.
Harper's Cabinet Looks Good!
First is Flaherty remaining in Finance is very important for continuity in these turbulent times. Next best move is Prentice to Environment. This is a critical issue for Harper and he obviously recognizes it with the appointment of his resident “Fixer” into this very contentious portfolio.
Alberta is already suspicious of Harper’s inclination to interfere in natural resources jurisdiction with his bitumen export remarks. Prentice will have to work with the amalgam of the environment and the economy as a whole systems approach. If anyone can do this, Prentice can and with a weak player like Clement in Industry, Prentice will be able to do what is needed without much push-back internally.
Next smart move is James Moore to Heritage. Verner was a dud and this guy has talent and is a quick study. He will not be a strong voice for arts and culture per se but he will be a champion for cultural industries going forward.
Baird is a doer and will have his hands full in Transport, Infrastructure and Communities. Likely to be the busiest guy in Cabinet as the economy turns down and public works project gear up in response. He is a great choice and he leaves some good feelings behind in Environment especially around parks policy.
Lisa Raitt in Natural Resources and Leona Aqlukkaq in Health are bold moves that deserve to be applauded…and not because they are women. Key portfolios to two newbie’s augers well for some chances for more openness and perhaps real participation by Cabinet members in policy beyond Harper as the one-man show. Time will tell.
Other clever moves are in the Minister of State functions like Rob Merrifield in Transportation, Fletcher in Democratic Reform – whatever that is, and Peter Kent in Foreign Affairs concentrating on the Americas.
Disappointments are Ablonczy not getting a promotion and James Rajotte still on the outside. Gerry Ritz is a survivor and Peter Van Loan replacing Stockwell Day in Public Safety is not encouraging…Peter is a pit bull in a china shop.
Big losers are Lunn and Verner, Clement. O’Connor, Guergis – all well deserved demotions.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
5 More Friends
In Canada we are suspicious of "celebrity" but in the States it is a big deal. I don't think one perspective is right or better than the other. But watching this video on voting by well known (and notorious) American celebrities is powerful.
On this blog I have told people to lie to pollsters to save democracy. I have implored readers to get informed, engaged and committed to the political process and to vote their values.
This video warms my heart and gives me hope that maybe a healthy democracy with a supportive citizenry is not a forlorn hope.
No matter who wins the US Presidency on Nov 4th - it will change the world. The world wants Obama to win - does America share that sentiment with the rest of us.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Harper Meets First Ministers Nov 10 - Expect Budget Cuts!
The provincial breakdowns are based on such a small sample size that they should not be take seriously but they are all pretty much in the same range including Quebec. The attitude about how the provinces need to respond to slowing economic times is also to undertake spending cuts.
Harper as a fundamentalist conservative will want to reduce the size of government and the footprint of government in the lives of Canadians. He will be keen to remove the foot of government on the wallets of citizens too so tax cuts may still be in the offing.
That will mean we can expect more program cuts in what he considers non-essential services. Artists beware! I think he will not cut taxes but will scrap the silly election tinkering for subsidies on things like first-time home buyers. He will still pursue the income splitting for seniors still and may even keep the subsidy for things like piano lessons for kids. Family values stuff and in tough times that may be a very good thing.
We can expect a mini-budget in November, shortly after the November 10th First Ministers meeting. If he look like he is facing a deficit in the current year, I expect some cuts sooner than later. He will want to ensure that he lives up to the no deficit in the current year campaign promise. He can make the cuts easily, especially with what these poll numbers say about how Canadians feel about government deficits.
Alberta has done its current budget based on $78 oil. With oil at about $63 things are serious. The demise of the Loonie down to $.77 has helped adjust the impact of the commodity price decline. My sources tell me everything in Alberta's pending budget work is back on the table except for the $2B dedicated to carbon capture and sequestration. That is going forward come hell or high water.
Hunkering down and batten hatches to weather the growing economic storm seems to be the general consensus and shared sensibility of Canadians going forward. We are just at the beginning of experiencing the serious consequences of this economic meltdown. The worst is yet to come. I just hope that the social infrastructure deficit is not still ignored as it has been for the past decade or so. It is a vital role of government and community together that demands an engaged and empathetic approach.
I am off to a Bob Dylan concert tomorrow night. As he says - The Times They Are A-Changin'
Monday, October 27, 2008
Confessions of a Political Blogger
It was not published electronically but we have it on the Cambridge Strategies Inc. website. Here is the link and I hope you enjoy it.
http://www.cambridgestrategies.com/WoW_Chapman%20Autumn%202008.pdf
Is Harper Cooling on "Get Tough On Crime"?
The Cons enthusiasm for elimination of prisoner voting rights and the abolishing of the artistic merit defense for child porn have been buried and forgotten. The news reports indicate many other election campaign promises in the get-tough-on crime category are being abandoned by Harper as well.
The list is interesting and long including some I agree with some of the policy efforts. I especially like creating mandatory consecutive sentences and no more concurrent sentences for multiple violent sexual offenders and no more additional credit for pre-trial time in custody. I wonder why he is backing off this promise.
Harper seems to have gone soft on terror with the lack of urgency indicated with still no appointment of a national security advisor. Can the same be said for the still outstanding initiative for a national strategy on organized crime?
Now we need to get Harper to back off on legislating life sentences for 14 year olds and get Omar Khadr back home to Canada.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Anchorage Daily News Backs Obama - Not Palin
Will Canada reject the radical right and return to its classic liberal values in the next election? I'm thinking so. Tough times ahead and we see a legitimate role for government in this country. We in Canada cringe at the thought that a government that redistributes wealth for the common good is somehow acting inappropriately "Socialist." This socialist labelling is the most recent reactive foray by McCain into attacking Obama as not being fit for governing.
Labels and misleading memes seem to be the essence of the Republican and other far-right Conservative political tactics these days. It is getting "old" in America and is seen as dangerous domestically and in foreign policy approaches too. Lets hope Canada returns to it socially progressive and fiscally conservative roots coupled with a political passion for the planet as a renewed common cause.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
A Nightmare Video About Not Voting
Friday, October 24, 2008
Save Democracy - Lie to a Pollster
Pollsters are showing results from 13 different pollsters we see claims of an Obama lead ranging from 14 points to 1 point. Can they all be right? Can any of them be right? The polling methodologies are the culprits. The old-school techniques are missing major portions of the population because they don’t connect with cell phone users…lots of youth are not in the results.
They use automatic dialing systems and lots of folks will not talk to a machine. More built-in inaccuracies are “normalized.” Some only use Internet pull techniques and then apply variables like multipliers to try and adjust for skewed data.
Many national polls have very small sample sizes for regional reporting but that does not seem to be any deterrence from pollsters still making statements about regional findings. Other efforts to account for wide ranging differences is be averaging all polls, the so-called poll of polls. This is still no way to get better polling accuracy because garbage-in/garbage-out is not resolved by averaging all the garbage.
Canadian pollsters were all caught in the 2006 election predictions because they failed to recognize the impact of last minute shifts and final impulse decisions in undecided voters. This election they did rolling polls over the weekend before Election Day and came up with much closer results.
Mistrust of pundits, politicians and now pollsters by the public is a prudent default position for anyone who wants to know what is really going on in politics today.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Dr. O'Connor Cancer Documentary on Oscar Short List
I recently attended the Keepers of the Water Conference in Fort Chipewyan and got some first-hand information and insight about what is going on up there around water and health issues.
The issues received international attention when former Fort McMurray physician, John O’Connor commented on the high rates of unusual cancers in the Ft Chip residents. There is a controversy swirling around Dr. O’Connor coming out of professional complaints filed by Canada Health by he has support from the Alberta Medical Association.
Dr. O’Connor ‘s findings were the subject of a recent documentary film entitled “Downstream.” Well the O’Connor profile and the issues in the documentary are about to get a lot more international attention. The film was just short-listed for an Oscar in the “Best Short Documentary” category.
The Academy Awards are scheduled for February 22, 2009. I wonder how this film will fare in February.
Canada's Wireless World Gets Weirder.
Shaw just spent $190m buying a chunk of the new wireless spectrum to enable it to carry cell phones and multimedia signals. I wonder what they will do with the new spectrum asset now. Obviously sell it to someone…but whom?
This is not a good first step on the federal government strategy to reduce wireless service pricing in Canada by increasing competition by having more providers.
Quebecor Media, a sub of cable company Videotron, announces in the Globe and Mail today that it is investing $800m to launch a wireless network in the next 18 months. They picked up 178 new spectrum licenses for over $550m in July. Quebecor is planning to put ads on smart phones in Quebec and projecting to hold 30% of the Quebec market by 2015.
Earlier this week Bell was in the news with complaints from independent cell phone franchisees over commission issues and has teamed up with Telus to jointly invest in the next generation wireless network but has withdrawn efforts to put fibre-optic cable into homes in Ontario. How will this add to competitiveness’ in the wireless marketplace in Canada and better price deals for consumers?
The market meltdown and the continuing nationalization of the world’s financial systems add to the uncertainty for everyone. It is tough to plan for everyone in these strange days. It is interesting to see two cable companies betting on diametrically opposite directions on new wireless investment.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Premier Stelmach - Alberta Has a Social Infrastructure Deficit Too!
We created an obvious capital and environmental infrastructure deficit in Alberta that is now being addressed with new capital investments and an emerging awareness about reclamation, wetlands, climate change and biodiversity issues, to name a few.
We caused these deficits by paying off the debt and deficit too fast. We applied every loose nickel to debt and deficit and ignored the growth demands of the booming economy as well as the maintenance issues of the as-built infrastructure facilities. We deferred the need to address the environmental implications of our overheated, expanding and accelerating economy as well.
The social infrastructure deficit was caused by the same rush to repayment but it was hidden because those who are harmed by it are the most vulnerable in our society and their over-extended advocates. It was too easy to ignore and the powers that be did!
The last two years has seen more attention being paid to the damage caused to vulnerable Albertans by this neglect – or at least the lack of timely, appropriate and required attention by the powers that be. Recruitment of staff into the Alberta social services sector has been a major challenge because wages, benefits and working conditions are so bad that people rationally take other jobs.
Full disclosure, I am working with the social service sector in the area of supports for Albertans with developmental disabilities. That is a bias but it also provides me with knowledge and facts about the plight of these people and those who support them. I know what I am talking about.
The social infrastructure deficit has been ignored and deferred for far too long. People are being unnecessarily and irreparably harmed as a result. Premier Stelmach needs to get personally engaged in responding to the social infrastructure deficit and investigate what happened and what is happening and then get it fixed.
The first place to start is to start paying the staff who are working in the not-for-profit community based social services sector the same as the unionized provincial employees are paid for doing the same work. Stabilizing the workforce in the sector then enabling the recruitment ands retention of trained staff is foundational to solving the problems of the social infrastructure deficit.
If the social infrastructure deficit is not fixed than Premier Stelmach better stop telling people that Alberta is a “great place to live, work, invest and raise a family.” It is not true for too many Albertans who are at-risk and vulnerable.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Old Fashioned Telephone Lines and the SuperNet Last Mile Solution
This is because the “last mile” connection from the public institutional users like hospitals, schools and libraries does not extend to the private citizen user. That so-called “last mile” of connectivity out to the rest of us in our homes, community groups and businesses has not yet been effectively resolved.
There are Internet Service Providers (ISPs) out there trying to resolve the last mile in rural Alberta using wireless and satellite services but with varying degrees of success. Wireless is a capital intensive and difficult public policy process to put up towers all over the place, and it has technical challenges too. The latency in signals from satellite does not serve video conferencing requirements effectively and video conferencing is going to be a major rural Alberta application of the power of the SuperNet. Some are proposing fibre to the home but that is very expensive and hardly necessary for most user’s needs.
Fraser notes “In less than a decade, technology has moved communications from dial-up services to coaxial cable to wireless networks to the nearly limitless, speed-of-light, carrying capacity of fibre-optic cable.” With the SuperNet, that “speed-of-light” fibre-optic is so close but yet so far from serving rural Alberta citizens and businesses. But until the last mile is really resolved, it is still out of reach.
There is an interesting, exciting and elegant alternative to resolving the last mile for the vast majority of rural Albertans. That solution is good old-fashioned copper telephone wire. That well known and familiar technology is already in every home and business in Alberta that has a land-line telephone. The technology has developed now so you can use it connect small town Albertans to the SuperNet using the reliable, robust, cheap, and ubiquitous copper wire telephone lines - with no new capital costs. Everything old is new again!
But there is a catch. The SuperNet was built by Bell and they are responsible to resolve the last mile issue. Bell’s position is wireless and satellite are enough to resolve the last mile issue, and they may be legally correct. However, As Fil Fraser noted, the accelerating use of video and video conferencing as the new normal expectation for Internet use, means theses “solutions” are not good enough anymore.
Copper wire is a winning solution to deal with the increasing demands of modern Internet users, especially for the new trends towards video and high-definition video conferencing. Here is the catch. All that copper wire in Alberta is owned by Telus and they claim this elegant and obvious last mile solution for rural Albertans is unworkable.
In Fraser’s article Telus likens the use of copper wire for SuperNet access would be like asking them to “build another company a black-and-white TV network instead of the new HDTV network we are halfway through building.” What? I am no techie but I understand Telus uses its copper wire for its own Hi-Def TV service as well as for their DSL Internet service. What is not workable about that?
Telus is suggesting their efforts to place their fibre-optic cable “across much of the province” would require them “…to actually pull out some of that hardware and go back to copper.” Why? I understand they don’t pullout copper wire. They just lay the fibre right beside it. But I am not techie! It would be illogical to pull out copper wire if it was able to provide high speed reliable and robust Internet service capable of video and high definition video conferencing for rural Albertans.
If Telus is laying optic fibre beside copper wire why are they even trying to duplicate the SuperNet? That fibre-optic system was already paid for by Alberta taxpayers? Why wouldn’t Telus access SuperNet themselves and provide all their new services to customers on that system? Saving the capital costs of installing a parallel fibre-optic service seems like a no-brainer and the funds could be used in other ways to improve shareholder value. Am I missing something here?
There is some good news. While the Internet and wireless is unregulated and priced by so-called competitive market forces, good old fashioned copper telephone wire access is still regulated...by the CRTC. So the Internet Centre, the very first commercial Internet Service Provider in Alberta, has taken the matter in hand and has applied to the CRTC for a regulatory ruling. They have filed an application with the CRTC for Telus to provide ISPs the access necessary to their copper wire to provide high-speed Internet service to rural Albertans.
If the Internet Centre is successful then the 180 Alberta communities who currently have no Internet service can get it and get SuperNet access to boot. If you have a landline telephone in a community in Alberta, you will be able to get high-speed Internet service that is capable of handling video and high- definition video conferencing at least the same cost as wireless if not less. Don't you just love competition?
I am no techie, but I have talked to knowledgeable telecom consultants about this unloaded copper wire approach and everyone agrees that it is a great solution. I am advised that SaskTel is already using its copper wire for high-speed Internet access in small communities in Saskatchewan. One consultant told me “Just because copper wire is buried, does not mean it is dead.”
The CRTC advises that there is a 90% chance they will have their decision out before Christmas. Cost effective, reliable and robust high-speed high capacity Internet on copper wire they already have in their homes and businesses would make a nice Christmas present for rural Albertans. Keep your fingers crossed rural Alberta.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Is Jaffer on His Way to the Senate?
Jaffer Severance Pay:
Don’t cry a tear for Mr. Jaffer and his campaign loss. He will collect $77,700.00 severance pay complements of the Canadian taxpayer. He will have to wait about 20 years to collect his $53,000.00 per year pension.
Senator Jaffer?
In the meantime it would not be a surprise if the Harper Party appointed Mr. Jaffer to the Senate. Jaffer would have to move to Ontario permanently because there are no Senate vacancies in Alberta right now, but Ontario has two openings. How hard will that be to relocate to become an Ontario Senator, especially since his wife is from Ontario?
Senator Jaffer will collect a basic entitlement of $134,400 per year for almost 40 years - until he is 75. If he takes on another role in the Senate he will get a significant top-up in the pay envelope. Dirty work but someone has to do it.
Senate Reform - Bert Brown is now Cool to the Idea!
I wonder if part of the Senate appointment will require Jaffer to support Harper’s campaign promise to institute 8 year term limits for the Senate. Bert Brown is the other Alberta Senate Reform champion but he is reported to be cool to Harper’s ideas on Senate reform all of a sudden. Brown was recently and finally appointed to the Senate as an “elected Senator” from Alberta. Newspaper reports indicate Mr. Brown is now cool to the idea of term limits but he still supports provinces electing Senators. Is anyone surprised?
This seems to put Mr. Brown totally off side with the Harper Party on Senate Reform. Brown does not want to see Harper unilaterally impose term limits because it would create a Constitutional crisis – likely lead by Quebec with Ontario and Atlantic Canada support. That would cause a provincial court challenge and further divide the country. But would Harper care if he is not going to stay in politics much longer than the life of his minority government?
Would Harper want to give up the discretion for Senate appointments to a bunch of wild-eyed reactionaries who might get elected from Provinces who would expect Harper to honour that democratic process? I think not.
Senate Reform is going to be a political sideshow given the serious economic, environment and social issues Canada really faces these days. That does not mean Senate reform will be ignored by the Harper Party. It is still a handy bone to throw to the radical right base that Harper still needs…even more than he needs Quebec…for the short term anyway.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
CTV Decides to Defend Themselves on the Dion Interview NOW? SPARE ME!
The question was ambiguous in that "now" could mean if Dion was PM for the same time Harper had been like 2.5 years, or during the current election campaign or afterwards in how he would govern differently if Dion won the election. Dion was seeking a clarification as to which time frame the interview was referencing. The answer would be significantly different in each case.
CTV thought this was so critical to quality journalism that they has a "responsibility" to air it. They had a responsibility all right. Starting with a responsibility to clarify the question would have been a professional place to start, especially in a second language.
Harper spun the event in yet another direction, being the congenitally misleading politician that he is...but that is just the same old mean-spirited politics that seem to be standard in Canada these days.
CTV- this just doesn't cut it. At least CTV you didn't go as far as the RCMP did in the last election and announce a criminal investigation publicly on Income Trusts. The spirit of "being responsible" sure seems to be in the same vein. Later the RCMP found no wrong doing by any politician and only some bureaucrat benefited with insider information. But those facts and that story got little to no play after the "facts."
Re-Engaging Culture Creatives in Public Policy Design
Based on the turnout being the lowest in history one wonders if people are grumpy but not angry enough to get seriousy engaged in effective citizenship.
The culture creatives and progressives in Alberta are a key group that need to re-engage in civics and citizenship if we are to have a cohesive, inclusive and creative society. I am a big believer that the world needs more Canada but Canada has to be more than mere myths of creativity, innnovation and inclusion.
I intend to try to continue to engage progressives and culture creatives in public policy design and development from now on. So you can expect some more "Free Speech" blog posts to those ends going forward.
Canadian Election - The Daily Show
This insight into Canada and our relationship with the USA and our election is so much fun. I love being Canadian just for the reasons Jon Stewart talks about.
Alberta Includes Midwifery Under Health Care Services - Finally
I acted as legal counsel for the Alberta Association of Midwives many years ago and managed to get them legal status as a profession. A breakthrough in the “negotiations” happened when a Red Deer doctor complained to the RCMP about a mother having a home birth that had no complications. Charges were laid and the public saw this as ridiculous and abusive – which it was. It was also seen as by the public as turf protection by some members of the medical profession. To their credit, not all physicians had this attitude.
The mom hired a lawyer to push the matter through courts and I pursued it in the court of public opinion. We won in both courts and midwifery became legal as the political barriers that many backward thinking politicians had put up suddenly disappeared. Midwives became recognized as a profession under Alberta law – but the province refused to include them in the health care system for years.
Midwifery services have always been part of the access to services and wait times solution. With the shortages and aging of family physicians and obstetricians midwifery service is not so much an innovation as a necessity.
Alberta is slow to get up to speed on midwifery services compared to other provinces. We were never able to get them included in the public health care system for pure political reasons. The same backward attitudes slowed down seatbelts, smoking bans and unfunded teacher’s pension liability. Well Ed Stelmach has changed all that and now he adds enlightened policy on midwifery to his accomplishments. Congratulations Premier Stelmach and to all those who involved in this wonderful decision.
The MSM Seems Fixated on the Dion Demise While the World is in Turmoil
The classic reporting is of rumours from anonymous sources about when Dion will announce something. This is promulgated in a pack-journalism culture as if it was “news.” It is not even pedantic infotainment. It is pure gossip. Dion is going to consider and consult because he is a team player and that kind of momentous decisoin takes time and attention. This change of leadership has to be done right for the good of the country and not just the benefit of the Liberal party and in consideration of Dion's future role.
We all need help to understand the implications of the Dion demise to the effectiveness of the Liberal Party functioning as the Official Opposition in this minority Parliament. We need to have some analysis on the reality surrounding the timing and process of a leadership change. This is critical for the Liberals and for what it means for our Canadian democracy and the political culture of the country.
Thankfully the Globe and Mail is on the job. The great columns in today’s newspaper by Jeffery Simpson ( “There is Life After Leader) Lawrence Martin (“The Forecast: Dion out by year’s end, Harper before the next vote.”) and the thoughtful comments (that I disagree with in part) on the state of our democracy by Ed Broadbent (“21st Century Canada, Home of 19th-century Democracy”).
Depth perception and dialogue from authoritative and knowledgeable news sources seems to be missing in action these days. We need to move beyond the hardball hyperbole of the recent election. The 24 hour news cycle and the instantaneous and viral nature of the internet all tends to dumb down the news into a culture where quickness trumps quality. Facts get framed to fit into sound bites and analysis is mostly anal and listless. We have never had more communications but with less information.
As I write this the TSX has dropped below 9000, oil is down over $5.00 on the day and is under $70 - and more big banks are getting taxpayer bailouts in Europe and the States. At least hurricane OMAR is moving towards open water and not likely to hit land. Time to get focused and serious about the economy, the environment and our society.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Is Harper Changing Priorities?
Harper is clever enough to know that with a much weakened Dion and an overly enthusiastic Layton the ploy of making every vote a confidence matter will not work this time. Dion has nothing to lose if he is on his way out anyway, why not call Harper’s bluff and cause another election. Harper is a bully but he is not foolhardy.
Collaboration is going to have to be the governing model. We saw Harper back down when his bluff is called on matters like getting Elizabeth May into the debates and even rushing out a policy platform in the final week of the campaign.
The economy is fragile even with strong fundamentals and everyone knows it. Harper is finally admitting it publicly and moving from “I am in charge and will Do Nothing” to now he is bolstering the banks with a $10B cash injection and a “safety net for money markets mutual funds.”
Canadian Press is reporting a more malleable PM who is saying he is “…ready to meet with opposition leaders to discuss economic issues.” First Ministers will meet without him and he can't have that happne. Last time he insisted opposition leaders meet with him so he could “prove” Parliament was “dysfunctional” so his pretense of an election had “credibility.” Everyone saw through it but he called an election for his personal hubris and naked grab for power anyway. He has never delighted in meeting with his provincial inferiors but maybe times have changed.
The Harper Party is backing off Senate Reform – Duh – in this economic climate we are going to spice it up with the additional fun of Constitutional reform? Sure we are. Harper is backing of his Crime and Punishment legislation so 14 year olds are safe from life sentences – for awhile at least.”A conciliatory tone pervaded his news conference” according to the CP report.
The economy is clearly job 1 – as it should be. Too bad we had to spent $300,000,000.00 and about 5 weeks of wasted time to end up in the same place we started. Pretty expensive way to just target and cripple Stephane Dion don’t you think?
Is anyone really happy with this result? Dion's feeling have to be obvious with the lowest level of support for the Liberal Party - ever! Harper hasn't got it done with three times at bat and has to be wondering how much more he has to give to Quebec to get them on side. Layton has proven he is not Broadbent. Duceppe can't too pleased with being identified as saving English Canada from a Harper majority. May might win one day but no time soon. She can use the time until the next election to raise her support and profile.
Who Would You Choose for President?
Obama and McCain will both likely isolate the States for various reasons and degrees. However based on the results of this site so far, if McCain wins, the world may want to isolate the States too, especially given the mess the Americans have made of the world financial markets.
Harper Get Close but Can't Close the Deal with Canadians.
The Harper majority was close and yet elusive. Harper lost the majority himself due to his lack of deft about understanding the importance of arts and culture to Quebec. It is so weirdly Canadian that the country was saved from a Harper majority, and the consequences of his proven demagoguery, by a separatist political movement. Harper has been to the election well three times and can't finish the job even with the most opportune of times with the Liberals being so unready and unsteady to run effectively.
Dion was the least experienced leader in his first election and he and the Liberal party was not really ready to run when the Writ came down. He was defeated by his own lack of political experience, his platform and his party, especially in Ontario and B.C. The last figures I saw as about a 9% reduction of Liberal support in Ontario. One wonders if the old guard stayed home and did not engage in Dion’s cause.
Then there was the impact of the economic meltdown factor. The Nanos tracking over the Thanksgiving weekend showed a shift in Ontario on Sunday to the Harper party. Speculation is this shift if likely from anxiety over the economy and the normative default but unproven consciousness that Conservatives are better economic managers.
Layton did well but not up to expectations. His popular vote stays the same and he gained 8 seats. Go figure. He will soon quit bragging about winning a seat in Quebec because Mulcair will be groomed to replace Layton sooner than later. Linda Duncan’s breakthrough in Alberta is a personal victory for her due to a strong campaign and strategic voting - and not anything to do with the NDP.
So we are back to square one with no clarity of a political outcome and no public policy purpose beyond platitudes. We are fragmented regionally and at sea economically as the global financial turmoil washes over us and puts us into recession. We have no comprehensive or comprehensible environmental policy and as for progressive policies on social issues, forget about it.
May's is a story of hope over experience. The strategic impulse of Greens voting for the Liberals did not take off. The popular vote for the Greens doubled and most of that came out of the hide of Stephane Dion.
So now we have a strong right and a strong but crowded left but no progressive middle. Dion identified the progressives in the final days but not with enough time to catch on and coalesce as a consciousness never mind a movement. The social progressive/ fiscal conservative centre is wide open in the Canadian political consciousness.
The Harper Party has to learn how to govern effectively in a world that is extremely complex and in critical shape. Cute tactics like a GST tax cut will not be enough to instill confidence in the Harper Party. Harper will have to change his style and show us some substance. Layton will be caught in the Harper Party everything is Confidence motion trap in this Parliament. Dion has nothing personally to lose now. I expect to see him and his caucus voting against Harper’s trickery and skullduggery more often, especially if he trumps up phony confidence motions on ideologically driven bad legislation.
The future for the Liberals is clear. The Liberals have to return to their roots, put away their egos and get fiercely focused on finances and rebuilding a modern party. That will start with new leadership in the face of new political realities.
We need leadership that can articulate authentically on the real needs and hopes of Canadians.
We need politicians who believe in government and can present a proper role and responsibility for government as a force of good and not the enemy of the people.
I think it is time to reinvent the old federal Progressive Conservative party philosophy even if under the Liberal label. That is where the vote rich and disenchanted progressive middle is in Canada today.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Vote Your Values and Please Take Your Democratic Responsibilities Seriously.
The election outcome is in the hands of Canadians who will show up who have decided to make a difference. It is not in the hands of the democracy drop-outs.
The wisdom of the crowd was shown in the last election when the Chretien/Martin Liberals needed a spanking and voters decided to give the Harper Conservatives a "test drive" with a minority government.
That test drive is over and Harper is obviously not the vehicle to take us forward on the next stage of the journey that is Canada in the ecological age. Dion is ready because he has a character, integrity and a strong team that will support him. May has proven her mettle, breadth and depth and, with Dion, both have found their footing as capable politicians and not just policy wonks. Duceppe has proven to be the true Quebec father figure - not the fraud of "I feel your pain as a nation" Harper who read Quebec so wrong. Layton has done well and deserves praise but not more support because his policy approach is still rooted in the industrial world that is long gone in Canada.
Individual races are still in play all over the country and can make all the difference in the final outcome. So gentle reader today is the the day. The future is in your hands. Vote your values and take democracy seriously again.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Don't Get Diverted by the Spin Doctors - Delve into the Real Issues
Here is an excerpt of the interview that will find it place in journalism schools as a mistake and an example of poor questioning:
Steve Murphy: M. Dion, you’ve said today that Mr. Harper has offered nothing to put Canadians minds at ease during this financial crisis, and you go on to say that he has no vision for the country. You say we have to act now; doing nothing is not an option. So I’d like to begin by asking you: If you were Prime Minister now, what would you have already done in this crisis that Mr. Harper hasn’t done?
Stephane Dion: I can’t, I don’t understand the question. Because are you asking me to explain sir, at which moment, today, or since a week, or 60 weeks or s…
Steve Murphy: No, if you were the Prime Minister during this time already.
Stephane Dion: We need to start again. I’m sorry, I, if I was the Prime Minister starting when? Today? If I was the Prime Minister today?
Dion Aid: If you were the Prime Minister when, since Harper’s been Prime Minister.
Stephane Dion: Ya, two years and a half, ago.
Dion Aid: At any give time.
Soooo this looks to me like a legitimate request for clarification as to the time frame referenced in the question. Dion is asking Murphy if the time frame in is question is what would he do differently from Harper IF Dion had been in power since the last election, or since the election was called in early September, or if Dion should win on Tuesday.
What Dion would do differently would differ in each case. Here is some more transcript that will show you how this is the only reasonable interpretation of Dion's request to have the question clarified.
Dion Aid: What would you have done differently between, between the time that Harper’s been there, to change the country.
Stephane Dion: Ya, but if I had been Prime Minister two years and a half ago, we’d have had an agenda. Let’s start again.
Steve Murphy: OK.
Stephane Dion: We’ll go there.
Technician: I’m rolling. Still recording.
Steve Murphy: M. Dion, thank you for coming.
Stephane Dion: Thank you Steve. Let’s start again, I’m …
[Laughter]
Steve Murphy: It’s a good job that tape is cheap.
Stephane Dion: But give me, give me a first date where I am Prime Minister that I can figure out, but, what your question is about.
Soooo...ignore the demeaning spin and take this exchange for wht it is...a failure to communicate by a professional communicator...nothing more nothing less.
We are seeing some Canadian MSM and the Conservative War Room who trying to turn this into Harper's version of the American media silliness that swirled around "Lipstick on a Pig."
There are serious issues like the economic turmoil, Afghanistan and Climate Change and health care that are not being discussed seriously enough in this election. Harper did not even respect the electorate enough to put our his campaign platform until the very last week of a 6 week campaign.
Lets move on and into the comparison of the characters of the tow front runners. Here is Dion's speech to he Canadian Club and Empire Club luncheon the day after Harper released his "platform brochure" to the exact same audience. Dion drew a much larger crowd and got 6 standing ovations. Harper had a very small audience and got a single and cursory standing "o."
Trends, Value Drivers and a Mood for Change is in the Air!
The crunch time for citizens is fast approaching as we reflect on who we will grant our consent to govern us. What are the dominant value drivers we will use to make this decision? Will it be the comprehensiveness of the party platforms, the character of the leaders or a major issue like health care, the environment or the economy? Will it be a feeling of anxiety over jobs and protecting savings or traditional voting habits? Will it be a strategic vote to block a poor option or bad outcome?
Trends indicate momentum and in the final four days those elements become all important as candidates and leaders try to get traction. Traction is needed so voters will take the time and actually show up and show their support at the ballot box.
CANADA IS NOT ON THE RIGHT TRACK:
Strategic Counsel has been tracking 45 tight battle ground seats in Quebec, Ontario and B.C. The sentiment of if Canada is on the right track has been trending down since Harper called his election. In B.C. it closes at 48% positive dropping significantly from a high of 57%. Ontario is now even more uncertain with a positive trend sentiment of 44% of significantly form a high of 57% a month ago. Quebec is the worst with only 46% positive sentiment dropping from 60% at the start of the election.
Other pollsters are saying Harper is coming back into potential majority government territory.
In B.C. the voters are shifting to the Liberals in the final stages and have the same 33% support they had at the 2006 election. The Conservatives and NDP are both 4% lower than last election.
The Greens are up 9% and it will be interesting if they vote strategically for Liberals to stop Harper given there is only a 2 point spread. Green votes for Liberals would make a big difference in B.C. outcomes.
In Ontario the Cons lead but are 10 points off their high and 1 point behind last election results. The Liberals are a full 6 points off the 2006 election results and all that support has gone to the Greens who are up 6. Again one has to wonder if the Ontario Greens will vote for local Liberals for strategic purposes.
Quebec’s story is the Bloc beating down the Conservatives down to the same levels as the unpopular Liberals. NDP and Green voters are the most likely to switch their votes, 28% and 32% respectively.
THE MOOD FOR A CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT HAS GROWN:
The mood for a change to a new government has increased significantly in the three battle ground provinces too. Since the election call B.C. voters who want a different government has jumped to 49% from 40%. Ontario is also in the mood for a change in government now at 54% up from 43% from when the election was called. In Quebec, the place where Harper really blew it, the mood for a change in government in Ottawa jumped to 63% from a mere 45% when the election was called.
These levels of people hunkering for a change do not bode well for Harper – unless he can position himself as the candidate of change in the next 4 days. So far his messaging has been just the opposite as he campaigns on he is the stable status quo guy who will Do Nothing to respond to the market meltdown. Layton and May are not in the game and Dion is struggling but the Liberal Team is making a difference.
I am not taking bets this election and don’t know anyone who is.
Pollsters Predict Harper is Back in Majority Territory.
Strategic voting is the nagging question for soft Green and Dipper voters going into the weekend. Vote swapping is a new but growing phenomenon so citizens can "make their votes count" for the party they prefer.
If Harper is not threatening to win a majority the Green and Dipper vote firms up and stategic voting thought wane. If Harper is threatening to achieve a majority then the soft voters start thinking about strategic voting and vote swapping.
As of today, pollsters are telling us Harper is once again threatening a majority government...even without Quebec's suport he was conting on. The EKOS and Harris Decima rolling polls shows the Harper Conservatives have hit bottom and the trend is got an uptick yesterday.
Today EKOS seat projection says Harper is within MAJORITY territory once again with possibility of 152 seats. 155 seats are a majoirty. EKOS notes that “Seat projection models can be sensitive to small shifts in the regional distribution of support.” The go further and say “In sum, we (EKOS) think if anything this projection may somewhat understate Conservative strength.” Strategic voting therefore becomes a critical concern again going into the final weekend.
Harris Decima has the Conservatives up2 points to 34% and the Liberals and NDs dropping 1 point each leaving an 8 point Conservative lead. Harper and Dion are statistically tied in Ontario and Quebec meaning every vote counts for second place behind the Bloc.
The Liberals are the major second choice for Dippers but the Conservatives have seen a significant resurgence in NDP second soft choices since the debates. Harris Decima says the market turmoil will have significant impact on voter psychology over the weekend before Election Day. They say “The economy and the potential movements of the NDP and Green support are the most important factors to watch heading in the final weekend of campaigning.”
Elizabeth May is endorsing strategic voting to Stop Harper. She is quoted in today's Globe and Mail saying: "I just think Canadians need to take a long hard look at the potential here to get rid of the government of Stephen Harper and all the it represents." She is not saying vote strategically in those races that are not tight. But in those that are close then strategic voting to Stop Harper is well advised.
Like Don Martin, I am going into this weekend with no idea what the final election outcome will be. All scenarios are possible. It is very similar to how I felt going into the final weekend in the March Alberta election. The mood there was for change and the electorate who showed up still gave Ed Stelmach, the incumbent Progressive Conservative, an enormous majority government.
This weekend as Canadians gather around family Thanksgiving dinners they will be thinking twice before they vote once. The market turmoil and economic concerns will dominate. It is a 2 horse race between Harper and Dion's team. May and Layton are also-rans and at least she knows it.
Will they believe in Harper's indifference and Do Nothing approach is the best way to go? Do they think Dion's consultative and deliberative planning approach with the help of Paul Martin be a better way forward?
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Harper's Empathy Deficit
Environment Site Endorses Liberal Wachowich in Edmonton Centre.
It is the seat represented by Anne McLellan, the former Deputy Prime Minister of Canada. Her supporters have moved with her and are solidly behind Wachowich's bid to send Harper a message and defeat the Conservative candidate.
Strategic voting and vote swapping has begun and may make all the difference in close ridings all across the country. Edmonton Centre is in the centre of strategic voting efforts.
Time for Alberta Strategic Voters to Stop Harper
Quebec flirted with voting Conservatives for the first few weeks in this election. Then they saw through Harper and have not just rejected him, they are now shunning him. Ironically it is Quebec that is actually saving Canada as a country by ensuring Harper only gets a minority government at best.
Wake up Alberta. We are being taken for granted and have been ignored ever since Harper came to power. Now he wants to interfere in Alberta’s natural resources by controlling bitumen exports and mess with nuclear power in our province. So much for the old Reform Party Harper who wanted to protect Alberta from interference from Ottawa with "Firewall."
Wake up Alberta. Send Harper a message on October 14th. Vote strategically to elect Wachowich in Edmonton Centre, Duncan in Edmonton Strathcona and Ford in Edmonton Sherwood Park. These are strong candidates with vital voices with proven ability. They will not be a mute minion in a Harper caucus under his command and control one-man kind of leadership.