Pollsters who use sample sizes of 243 in Quebec and 384 in Ontario and spin the “results” as being indicative of anything proximiting a degree of accuracy should be embarrassed. Those sample sizes are too small to make a definitive comment on voter stances in Quebec and Ontario with over 7 and 12 million people respectively.
Remember these days pollsters have to phone 15 -20 people before anyone answers their questions. So they are pretty self selecting people and not necessarily very representative. Also they don’t call cell phones so they miss the youth and young adult voter sentiments as well. Take this so called voter intention information with a grain of salt...and don't be fooled into thinking this is more fact than fancy. It is not.
The Pollsters were totally embarrassed in the 2006 election because they were mostly wrong last time, and significantly wrong - except for Nanos. He kept polling over the last weekend in 2006 and caught the shift in sentiment as Canadians got serious as they reflected on the future of the country.
Nik's three day running polls are showing very little variation in voter preferences from the 2006 election results...and it has been that way all through this election so far. In 2006 the Cons had 36.3%, Libs 30.2 and NDP 17.5. Not much has changed but MSM reports breathlessly as if something was actually happening that is different. It isn't!
This election will be decided on the long weekend of Oct 11-13 as Canadians reflect during Thanksgiving in the same way and about the future of the country as well as their own futures in uncertain times and who they dare trust. Many will not make a final decision until they pick up a pencil.
Harper is not a leader. He is a Misleader. I am for anyone but Harper BUT I know he has a very efficient and concentrated rural vote. So he has a real shot at a majority. Unless the rest of us show up to send him a message. We have to vote strategically to be sure to not split the vote either.
Partisanship has to conceded to pragmatism as conscientious Canadians who care for the country and the future for their kids cast a vote. Be sure to show up and vote. And be sure to vote Anybody But Harper.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Harper's Speech Writer Gone. Guilty of Plagiarism. More Questions About the Conservative's Values.
More situational ethics are coming from the Conservative Party campaign operatives. Yet another one has to resign in disgrace and further humiliate Harper and bring his personal judgment and trustworthiness into question.
An admission of plagiarism by an experienced speech writer working directly for a political leader like Mr. Harper is serious stuff. This speech writer clearly knows better but did it anyway, presuming he would not get caught? This is not an example of the over-exuberance of some amateur blogger getting out of line. This is deliberate deception. It begs the question of if it was collusion with John Howard, the defeated Australian PM who gave the peech first.
This smacks so much of Harper’s hardball bullying political style of doing whatever it takes to get power. This does not look good on Mr. Harper’s judgment and qualities to govern. It shows the deceit and conniving we have seen from the Harper government and political culture goes a long way back - a long way back!
Canadians have not warmed to Mr. Harper since they gave him a minority government in January 2006. His bullying and opportunistic approach to politics has firmed up his base voter support but it has not given him any traction or momentum to break through for the majority government he covets in this election.
Harper’s approach is obviously to get personal political power at all costs and then bankrupt the Liberals in the process. He wants a one-party state, the Harper party. Is this the kind of person you think represent the foundational Canadian values? Is this the kind of person you want speaking for you as Prime Minister? Is this the kind of person you feel comfortable enough with to give the power to make the serious decisions public policy decisions that will impact your life directly?
It’s about character, competence and caring. We need both in our political leadership. We need servant leaders, not power hungry politicians. Harper is continuing to prove has not enough of these qualities of effective leadership. Be careful who you elect Canada. And be very afraid of giving Stephen Harper the absolute power of a majority government.
An admission of plagiarism by an experienced speech writer working directly for a political leader like Mr. Harper is serious stuff. This speech writer clearly knows better but did it anyway, presuming he would not get caught? This is not an example of the over-exuberance of some amateur blogger getting out of line. This is deliberate deception. It begs the question of if it was collusion with John Howard, the defeated Australian PM who gave the peech first.
This smacks so much of Harper’s hardball bullying political style of doing whatever it takes to get power. This does not look good on Mr. Harper’s judgment and qualities to govern. It shows the deceit and conniving we have seen from the Harper government and political culture goes a long way back - a long way back!
Canadians have not warmed to Mr. Harper since they gave him a minority government in January 2006. His bullying and opportunistic approach to politics has firmed up his base voter support but it has not given him any traction or momentum to break through for the majority government he covets in this election.
Harper’s approach is obviously to get personal political power at all costs and then bankrupt the Liberals in the process. He wants a one-party state, the Harper party. Is this the kind of person you think represent the foundational Canadian values? Is this the kind of person you want speaking for you as Prime Minister? Is this the kind of person you feel comfortable enough with to give the power to make the serious decisions public policy decisions that will impact your life directly?
It’s about character, competence and caring. We need both in our political leadership. We need servant leaders, not power hungry politicians. Harper is continuing to prove has not enough of these qualities of effective leadership. Be careful who you elect Canada. And be very afraid of giving Stephen Harper the absolute power of a majority government.
JIm Ford is Still the One for Edmonton Sherwood Park
The “TrueBlueReformer” has a blog under http://www.stopjimmyford.blogspot.com/. He can’t understand why sending an Independent Conservative to Ottawa instead of the “official” Conservative candidate would send Harper a message. I recommended in an earlier post that Edmonton Sherwood Park elect Jim Ford, as an Independent Conservative for those very reasons.
Here is a link to that earlier post with my endorsement.
I have to wonder about these cloak-and-dagger Conservatives and their supporters. Why do they always hide behind anonymity in the blogosphere? Who are these people? Why should we believe anything they say? Why do they have to hide their identities? What are they afraid of – the truth? Who are they afraid of – the public?
I think these true believers of the Harper hypocrisy are guys who are set up to spout off but who are really afraid in their heart of hearts. They fear the political process in a free and open democracy. They fear their party henchmen and they fear their leader.
Hidden identities from party operatives trolling the Blogs means there is also a hidden agenda! Harper does not want power – he wants absolute power. We all know the truth that power corrupts. That is why the Liberals lost the last election and Canadians decided to give Harper a controlled and limited chance to govern by electing a Conservative minority.
That political experiment with Harper is our Prime Minister has proven to be a failure. The power has already corrupted Harper and the Conservative Party in just over 2 years. His record, his manipulation of the facts, the abuse and bullying, the command and control top-down centralization of political power exclusively in the PMO is proof he is not the right stuff to govern.
If he gets absolute power through a majority government one can expect it will corrupt him absolutely in less than 2 years. Harper is not worth this risk! He has shown that he is a risk to our freedoms as citizens by the way he uses power for personal political purposes, and not the greater good of the country.
Here is a link to that earlier post with my endorsement.
I have to wonder about these cloak-and-dagger Conservatives and their supporters. Why do they always hide behind anonymity in the blogosphere? Who are these people? Why should we believe anything they say? Why do they have to hide their identities? What are they afraid of – the truth? Who are they afraid of – the public?
I think these true believers of the Harper hypocrisy are guys who are set up to spout off but who are really afraid in their heart of hearts. They fear the political process in a free and open democracy. They fear their party henchmen and they fear their leader.
Hidden identities from party operatives trolling the Blogs means there is also a hidden agenda! Harper does not want power – he wants absolute power. We all know the truth that power corrupts. That is why the Liberals lost the last election and Canadians decided to give Harper a controlled and limited chance to govern by electing a Conservative minority.
That political experiment with Harper is our Prime Minister has proven to be a failure. The power has already corrupted Harper and the Conservative Party in just over 2 years. His record, his manipulation of the facts, the abuse and bullying, the command and control top-down centralization of political power exclusively in the PMO is proof he is not the right stuff to govern.
If he gets absolute power through a majority government one can expect it will corrupt him absolutely in less than 2 years. Harper is not worth this risk! He has shown that he is a risk to our freedoms as citizens by the way he uses power for personal political purposes, and not the greater good of the country.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Polls Show 51% Oppose a Harper Majority - Let the Strategic Voting Begin
The vibrations about strategic voting are starting to pick up resonance in the land. Harper is “achingly close” to a majority with some poll and seat projector results last week. Harper’s new musing about wanting a majority was to be expected. Why is it reasonable to expect this?
Because at the beginning of the election Harper said just the opposite! He said when he called the election, breaking his own fixed date election law to do it, he said expected and would be “satisfied” with another minority government. We know from past experience that when Harper says one thing he means another…like not wanting a majority. Of course he wants a majority, and it looks like he will be getting it if current trends continue.
Get used to being afraid of your government’s power over you if Harper gets a majority. It could happen. Unless, of course Canadians wake up to that fact and realize what a mistake they would be. Harper is a one-man-band control freak and a misleading master manipulator. Canadians will have to stop him and that will take some strategic voting given the split in the Lib/NDP/Green voters.
The “appetite” for a Conservative majority is also at 40% and 51% would not be happy with a Harper majority and only 11% are not sure. This is according to a new Ipsos Reid poll released Sunday September 28. Harper is obviously a love him or hate him kind of guy. Those who love him are older and middle aged men and those who have him are younger Canadians.
This is a recipe for strategic voting, which will start in earnest after the debates this week. That same poll was showing 39% of us are in favour of strategic voting to stop Harper and 45% are against it. Some 16% are not sure what they think about strategic voting.
The strategic voters will tend to vote Liberal (44%) followed by NDP (26%) with Greens getting strategic voter support from 14%. Only 3% of strategic voters have not yet made up their minds. I expect the Green strategic voters in Ontario and Atlantic Canada will shift Liberal and the NDP vote in Quebec will shift to the Bloc.
The vote swapping websites and the anti-Harper websites and Facebook pages and anti-Harper Premier Danny Williams will all start to turn up the heat, volume and activity for strategic voting. More on how to do this will be in future posts.
Because at the beginning of the election Harper said just the opposite! He said when he called the election, breaking his own fixed date election law to do it, he said expected and would be “satisfied” with another minority government. We know from past experience that when Harper says one thing he means another…like not wanting a majority. Of course he wants a majority, and it looks like he will be getting it if current trends continue.
Get used to being afraid of your government’s power over you if Harper gets a majority. It could happen. Unless, of course Canadians wake up to that fact and realize what a mistake they would be. Harper is a one-man-band control freak and a misleading master manipulator. Canadians will have to stop him and that will take some strategic voting given the split in the Lib/NDP/Green voters.
The “appetite” for a Conservative majority is also at 40% and 51% would not be happy with a Harper majority and only 11% are not sure. This is according to a new Ipsos Reid poll released Sunday September 28. Harper is obviously a love him or hate him kind of guy. Those who love him are older and middle aged men and those who have him are younger Canadians.
This is a recipe for strategic voting, which will start in earnest after the debates this week. That same poll was showing 39% of us are in favour of strategic voting to stop Harper and 45% are against it. Some 16% are not sure what they think about strategic voting.
The strategic voters will tend to vote Liberal (44%) followed by NDP (26%) with Greens getting strategic voter support from 14%. Only 3% of strategic voters have not yet made up their minds. I expect the Green strategic voters in Ontario and Atlantic Canada will shift Liberal and the NDP vote in Quebec will shift to the Bloc.
The vote swapping websites and the anti-Harper websites and Facebook pages and anti-Harper Premier Danny Williams will all start to turn up the heat, volume and activity for strategic voting. More on how to do this will be in future posts.
$700B Bailout! Is It A Deal or No Deal?
The bubble has burst on the "brain trust" that was the American financial sector. This is the biggest government bailout in history. Deal or No Deal is the question and this bailout is not a slam dunk yet. Where is Howie Mandel when you need him? The package is still in some serious trouble with opposition from a significant segment of the Washington political class – House Republicans.
The very same Bush-league laissez-faire Republicans who our own Harper Conservatives see themselves as Bush-Republican clones. These guys have systematically reduce the responsible role of government to protect citizens from excess and abuses of greed and graft.
As the Congress and White House look at passing a law on how to nationalize the American financial sector they are putting the taxpayer on the hook of $700B of more borrowed money. No doubt that money will be from more borrowing that will undoubtedly come from China one again. This will serve to make the Americans even more vulnerable and subject to the whim of the Chinese.
The chance for a world-wide recession is still very real and confidence in the marketplace is going to erode significantly, including Canada. The expectations are for a steep economic decline as credit tightens up. The TSX is down over 535 points as the time of writing and crude oil is down $6 a barrel.
The Report On Business front page story today shows that Canadian CEOs are the most pessimistic they have been in years. The Harper claims that Canada is on track for a surplus this fiscal year because just one month has shown as surplus so far does not add up. Confidence has shifted under Harper’s watch. In June 2008 58% of CEOs were looking for moderate to strong growth in the Canadian economy. One quarter later, the September 2008 confidence shows 60% of CEOs now believe the economy will go into strong or moderate decline. This is more volatility that we have seen in the election polls this time around.
It is time to look seriously at Harper’s approach to crisis. Can a one-man-band who thinks he is the only smart person in any room he visits be worth the risk? The Conservative bench strength has Harper and Prentice as the talent – now that Emerson is gone. Skills and competence of the Harper cabinet drops off dramatically after those two men. There is no “I” in team and there is no Harper team either. Do we dare put our entire future into the hands of one man – namely Mr. Harper? All of us are smarter than one of us Mr. Harper.
The Liberals have lots of bench strength economically, environmentally and socially and a proven positive record in managing the economy in tough times. It is time to bring back Paul Martin, the best Finance Minister Canada has ever had. He turned a $46B Mulroney deficit into a long time string of balanced budgets, paid down debt and ended up with a $12B surplus.
Harper squandered that $12B surplus in less than 2 years. The facts show that Harper is not the fiscal managers and stewards of the taxpayer’s dollars. He misleads in this area like he does in many other policy areas. Harper is not only not worth the risk. He is the risk.
We are all going to be in this together and for a long time. We should deal with it together...not just depend on Harper as a one-man political and policy band to deliver us from this evil. Vote for a team approach and that means you need to vote Liberal on October 14th.
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