Well we pundits and the mainstream media may think this election campaign is boring but recent poll results in Edmonton Riverview shows that the citizens there don’t think it is boring. A full 93% of the citizens of Edmonton Riverview say they intend to vote in the election. We know fewer will show up but that expression of voter intent is pretty good everything considered.
Here are the startling results of the 1037 people in the Edmonton Riverview constituency who were polled on Feb18-19. This is the home turf of the leader of the Alberta Liberal Party, Dr. Kevin Taft. This random poll sample size has a margin of error +/- 3% 19 times out of 20.
QUESTION:
“If you were to vote today, which of the following parties would you vote for?”
Liberal 35%
Progressive Conservative 28%
NDP 7%
Green 5%
Wildrose Alliance 5%
Undecided 19%
Here are the startling results of the 1037 people in the Edmonton Riverview constituency who were polled on Feb18-19. This is the home turf of the leader of the Alberta Liberal Party, Dr. Kevin Taft. This random poll sample size has a margin of error +/- 3% 19 times out of 20.
QUESTION:
“If you were to vote today, which of the following parties would you vote for?”
Liberal 35%
Progressive Conservative 28%
NDP 7%
Green 5%
Wildrose Alliance 5%
Undecided 19%
Last election Dr. Taft garnered 65.48% of the vote and the PC candidate took 22.77%.
QUESTION:
“Which of the following issues will be most important in helping you decide your vote?”
Health Care 41%
Environment 26%
Crime and Justice 18%
Affordable Housing 15%
Campaigns matter and I have said all along that this election is too close to call, especially given how volatile the electorate is this time. Looking at these results Dr. Taft may have to spend much more time in his constituency than he originally planned.
The undecided vote is high for half way through a campaign and if they show up anything can happen. The Greens and the WAP are hot on the heels of the NDP too. I wonder if there is a foot race for third place in the province this time too.
If the Alberta voters want change and if Edmonton Riverview is any indication, change may come in many forms. It will be interesting to see the range and variety of changes that may come from this election.
I said weeks ago the only safe seat in Alberta this time is Ed Stelmach’s. Everyone else will have to earn victory the hard way – by working for it on the phone, at the doors and through the internet. This election is far from over – and as Edmonton Riverview is telling us, it is not boring either.
I suggest you question this poll. He is simply in no danger of losing his seat and I don't need to see a poll of 1000 people to confirm that.
ReplyDeleteWhy is there an advertisement on the bottom of your webpage for the Alberta Liberal candidate Nancy Cavanaugh?
ReplyDeleteI know you are a liberal at heart but seriously...
Have you not learned anything from the US presidential about polls? Also remember that the US polling stations are much more sophisicated.
ReplyDeleteKen:
ReplyDeleteI am surprised that Taft is even leading in Riverview given the trend line in the Ipsos Reid poll. You and I both know that the Liberals tend to underperform in the polls leading up the election. Remember 1993, 1997 and 2004. The only expection was 2001 and that was because MacBeth was the leader for the Liberals.
Glen
Glen - I think this election will be decided the last 72 hours before the polls close. Lots of machinations yet to come.
ReplyDeleteHere is a new poll for ya: http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080220/poll_story_080220/20080220?hub=TopStories
ReplyDeleteThe CPC is 12 percentage points ahead of the Liberals. Let me guess that the Liberals will leave their so-called principles and not vote the government down (simply because they are afraid of losing the next election). The liberals are losing credibility as time passes - how can they prop up the government but at the same time say the government is leading the country in wrong direction. Expect a majority for the CPC if Dion continues this weak leadership.
Anon @ 7:27 - I am focused on the Alberta election which is really happening. Canadians don't want a federal election and Harper is now facing a Liberal party that could call one so he is acting more reasonably these days.
ReplyDeleteI don't see a federal election coming soon at all...and not because the Lib can't handle it...they can. There is no need for one.
Now quit commenting on things federal on posts that at provincinal. The federal scene is boring.
I haven't seen any public polling data on this riding, but I notice Paul Hinman is spending most of his time in Cardston-Taber-Warner. He won by a much smaller margin than the other seated party leaders last time, so I assume he is not taking his own seat for granted.
ReplyDeleteBut it begs the question of how helpful he is to the "cause" if he is not out there helping his own Wildrose Alliance people capture some seats. Staying close to home sends the message "every man for himself". Where is the leadership? Any relationship to the resignation of their new party president, on the eve of an election?
And to head off the anticipated line of commentary of "well, they just merged, they are putting their organization together, yaddah yaddah", well, they knew an election was coming. Seems to me Hinman (and Mason) thought it was coming even earlier (late 2007 not early 2008).
Ken:
ReplyDeleteThere are no sure things in this election. See the latest Angus Reid Strategies poll done for QR77 and CHED.
Glen
anon 7:17pm,
ReplyDelete"Why is there an advertisement on the bottom of your webpage for the Alberta Liberal candidate Nancy Cavanaugh?
I know you are a liberal at heart but seriously..."
Not that Ken needs "defending", but what a stupid comment. Those are random ads. Who knows, next time you refresh the page you might see a Wildrose Alliance ad. Going to accuse him of being a WRA supporter? Hinman would be tickled pink.
Anon @ 11:59 - I have no control over who advertises on my Blog. That is Google's decision.
ReplyDeleteFolks,
ReplyDeleteWrite this down: "There is no credible alternative to the PCs." "The economy is too strong." "Ed has no enemies and has made progress over his short term."
In his provincial tour a couple years ago I told Kevin Taft that they have to get away from the name, title and most importantly the reputation of the word LIBERAL. As a tried and true Tory I gave him the secret, but he chose to ignore it. Now let the voter chips fall as they may.
Push poll ;-)
ReplyDeleteLet's hope to see some excitement at tonight's Leaders' Debate!
What poll is this????? I see no source, for all I know you made these numbers up.
ReplyDeleteIan - go to the Wendy Andrews Riverview campaign website for the poll source and details.
ReplyDeleteHinman has to campaign in Cardston - Taber because the P"C"s can throw their considerable resources at it and there is even less spare time in a rural campaign than an urban one. One would have to spend double the time and money to get the same amount of reach in terms of door-knocking, flyers, signs, and advertising. Finally, there is the downside risk: if we lose this seat, it is a disaster. If we place 3rd instead of 4th or 5th somewhere else, that'd be great but not worth risking a seat for.
ReplyDelete