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Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Poll Shows Taft's Election in Edmonton Riverview is No Shoe-In

Well we pundits and the mainstream media may think this election campaign is boring but recent poll results in Edmonton Riverview shows that the citizens there don’t think it is boring. A full 93% of the citizens of Edmonton Riverview say they intend to vote in the election. We know fewer will show up but that expression of voter intent is pretty good everything considered.

Here are the startling results of the 1037 people in the Edmonton Riverview constituency who were polled on Feb18-19. This is the home turf of the leader of the Alberta Liberal Party, Dr. Kevin Taft. This random poll sample size has a margin of error +/- 3% 19 times out of 20.

QUESTION:
“If you were to vote today, which of the following parties would you vote for?”

Liberal 35%
Progressive Conservative 28%
NDP 7%
Green 5%
Wildrose Alliance 5%
Undecided 19%

Last election Dr. Taft garnered 65.48% of the vote and the PC candidate took 22.77%.

QUESTION:
“Which of the following issues will be most important in helping you decide your vote?”

Health Care 41%
Environment 26%
Crime and Justice 18%
Affordable Housing 15%

Campaigns matter and I have said all along that this election is too close to call, especially given how volatile the electorate is this time. Looking at these results Dr. Taft may have to spend much more time in his constituency than he originally planned.

The undecided vote is high for half way through a campaign and if they show up anything can happen. The Greens and the WAP are hot on the heels of the NDP too. I wonder if there is a foot race for third place in the province this time too.

If the Alberta voters want change and if Edmonton Riverview is any indication, change may come in many forms. It will be interesting to see the range and variety of changes that may come from this election.

I said weeks ago the only safe seat in Alberta this time is Ed Stelmach’s. Everyone else will have to earn victory the hard way – by working for it on the phone, at the doors and through the internet. This election is far from over – and as Edmonton Riverview is telling us, it is not boring either.